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tv   Bloomberg Surveillance  Bloomberg  October 22, 2020 6:00am-7:00am EDT

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good. this is bloomberg surveillance, live on bloomberg television, lisa, i'mtom and jonathan ferro. francine lacqua is off today. to go -- we have 12 days and debate in tennessee. tom: yields are coming in all the latest higher yields, a 10 year jump point. a .1%. i'm suggesting is a political focus but you have to keep your eyes on these correlations. mention that -- speaks to the agony of so much of america. jonathan: 25 seconds into the program and we get to her favorite topics, stimulus. a 48-hour deadline that keeps rolling. >> and are we going to continue to attribute market moves to this ongoing rolling deadline with the same story underpinning it?
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to,h mcconnell doesn't want nancy pelosi and steve mnuchin do. they don't see much closer. i think there's a political question underpinning the market, are people second-guessing their dismissal of a contested election. interferencee raised yesterday, possibly increasing the chances of a messy elections these in -- election season. jonathan: may become i'm just not going to get excited on an 11 point move on the s&p 500. lisa: we could try. jonathan: here's what we look like on my heels coming down a basis point. 118, we have replaced this weakness with dollar strength in much of g10. johnhe news overnight, ratcliffe saying that iran and russia are meddling in the
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united states election. here's the u.s. director of national intelligence. that some confirmed voter registration information has been obtained by iran, and separately by russia. this data could be used by foreign actors to attempt to communicate false information to register voters. jonathan: john ratcliffe on attempts on iran and russia entertained -- interfering in the election. not a surprise to many that this is happening. clear, he supposedly got up front of news organizations that were going to break this news in some manner. there is some certain national security secrecy here. what i would note within the zeitgeist this morning is the idea that the president is upset that his attorney general and fbi director -- i'm not sure how that plays into tonight. jonathan: i imagine it will,
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because you know the president wants to make tonight about foreign policy in a big way. i think every opportunity the president gets will be going there. i think this will get personal very quickly on ukraine, the situation with the former vice president son -- vice president's son. that will come up. and we do have new button tonight. --mute buttons. we are 57 minutes away from the opening. bestancake pantry, the diner in america, right by belmont university. i want to get to this emotional moment, the vice president has been repairing, the reports are that the president does less preparation. does he come in organized or does he come in distracted and will proverbially wing it? kevin: organized. previously when he has had his
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back against the wall, especially when it relates to presidential debates, with that bar being so low now, he has an easier bar to clear then joe biden. as it relates specifically to foreign policy, two emerging themes. jonathan, you mention the hunter biden issue. without question that will come up tonight. the way in which the president i'm told is going to go about that political attack will be somewhat different than what happened at the early presidential debate. from a long-term perspective, here's why it resonates. it really raises and rallies the conservative hawks as it relates to u.s.-russian relations in the long-term. should joe biden defeat president trump. it continues the narrative that democrats are weak on russia, the resurgence of a theme that we saw go out the window with
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the president in office. contrast, look at the joe biden campaign, particularly joe biden himself, raising the issue of foreign interference. you mentioned john ratcliffe and that press conference yesterday. the politics of the moment influences the rollout in terms of foreign interference. iran, russia, packing into voter registration. that is something that the biden campaign says that the trump administration did not do enough to better protect. let's talk about the mood of the room and the town, having spoken to the team about the approach of the president, and who is the audience? now isthe audience right the base, but moving more towards battleground states like
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wisconsin. there's a poll out that has tromped down to biden 44% to 49% that just came out from fox news pray that's outside of the margin of error. in pennsylvania, 45% to 50%. toa state like michigan, 40% 53 percent. these are fox news polls. from a polling perspective the president has to make better inroads in terms of the industrial belt pathway which is really propelled him to get to the white house. that's his audience. lisa: the hot button issue is the mute button and have it will be deployed. there is a way for the moderator to silence each of the candidates. how are there guidelines? how is this being framed to protect the moderator from alleged interference or silencing the candidates? kevin: first and foremost, it
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won't be an issue unless president trump wants to make it an issue. if the president's strategy is to make it about the moderator and political institutions, that will be a common thread. but the second point is that at the president's strategy is to draw a policy contrast or to peer more presidential to win for suburban female voters example, that will likely not come out. a go behind the scenes for second, it's intensely common for presidential campaigns to battle it out behind the scenes with the debate commission overrules, microphones, whether or not they will be standing or sitting. that's a long and storied history. what's uncommon is to see this play out publicly and so last-minute. all the way up to the kickoff of the debate. there's a bit of a speech mentality that this
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campaign is trying to generate. thank you for catching up. tom keene, we have seen some surprising poles over the last month or -- polls. we got a surprise from texas. president and former vice president tied in texas, unbelievable. a month ago it was a five-point lead. quinnipiac is a respected polling service. but i have issues with the granularity and certitude. to be honest, the president has done better in the last couple of days then a week ago. for the last story few weeks has been i go to a poll and tom goes no. lisa: i was basically mouthing the words pray they're a great organization but can we believe the polls? the john, you are right,
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trend in texas is clearly a surprise towards mr. bryden. lisa: backpedaling. tom: but imagine what we will see next monday, seven days away? six days away? it will be extraordinary. jonathan: see, everybody agrees byh me, we are conditioned 2016. we have special coverage tonight on the presidential debate at 8:30 in new york, 1:30 friday and monday. i might stay up. i might. maybe i will be asleep. this is bloomberg surveillance, live on bloomberg television. ♪ ♪ ritika: the second and final presidential debate is tonight in nashville, it's one of these
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final high-profile chances for president trump to change the narrative of the campaign. changed, thehave candidates microphone will be muted at times when the other candidate is speaking. the president has complained that this is unfair. he said the same thing about the choice of topics and the moderator, nbc's kristen welker. mnuchinlosi and stephen made further progress on a coronavirus stimulus package. but senate republicans are reluctant to embrace any deal led by pelosi. language for the bill would have to be drafted by the weekend if it's to be voted on before election day. democrats on the senate judiciary committee plan to show their unhappiness with the supreme court nominee of amy coney barrett. they will boycott a vote to advance the nomination. republicans have a majority, so the move will not prevent the nomination from going ahead.
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more help to businesses affected by the coronavirus. according to the financial times, there will be an announcement of more funds under the tier two virus rules. this requires pubs and restaurants to close by 10:00 and bands mixing between separate households and doors. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. gupta, this is bloomberg. ♪
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jonathan: just a little bit of is --version this this this morning.
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francine lacqua is away today. we are giving you a quick snapshot of things. the equity markets are slightly negative, up by a third of 1%. the long end is curving just a little ladder -- a little flatter. we have a 10.01%. and the foreign-exchange is flipping that around. stronger this morning with the euro-dollar coming down a third of 1%. tom: and let's get to it with future security at -10 down to -12. the absolute hallmark of the method is securities analysis. that's what mario gabelli started with all of his different funds. always making up an interesting portfolio. -- it is centered around value but really the growth aspects.
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--istopher is the co-sheet is the co-chief investment officer. yang, long ago and far -- in may, long ago and far away, the cliche was a bridge off of 2021. where is the end of the bridge for you now? unfortunately there's not going to be in armistice day for covid. there's not one day were we wake up in their mask goes away -- and the mask goes away. there's -- when they are willing to reach a point of indifference and spend money like they used to as consumers. we see improvements as we look out, much of it depending upon what happens with vaccines. and therapies through the remainder of this year. we are willing to jonathan:
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--jonathan: willing to buy today. today.willing to buy jonathan: you buying? christopher: there has been discussions of model stocks, banks, oil, travel, and leisure, and small-cap. small-cap has been outperforming for the last month and a half. . --jonathan: and this has been falling for a long time. ad why has this been going in more durable manner? christopher: much is predicated on a successful reopening. the entering of a new economic cycle in which small-cap and value tends to do well. but also many of the large-cap growth companies, the big five companies that dominate most of the big indices are just running out of steam.
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wellhave done tremendously for good reasons. they are safe havens. there's probably a little less reason with the risk. care about the virus spread worsening when it comes to this rotation? christopher: it is something that we watch. and the reemergence or the third peak is not a surprise to us. .e have a forward look what matters is can we get through the next six months. what is the path for therapies and vaccines. summer weometime next will see more green shoots than we do today. tom: the zeitgeist is to focus on the top of the income statement. it's particularly about revenue growth with even higher single digits. do you by that? that revenues matter?
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or are you still traditionally down looking? christopher: we are cash flow focus, we don't own a lot of companies that trade on multiple revenue. a few, cash flow is what matters . there's a lot of elements beyond organic growth, selling more products at higher prices. margins will be under pressure as the labor market tightens. to go to media, your update on the streaming wars. we saw that project completely collapse in the last 24 hours. quibi as well, what does that signal on media's capital investment? christopher: i don't know if i would call that the canary in the coal mine but there's a lot of streaming companies that will not be successful. netflix is at the top of that list and it has done an amazing job of taking shows that did
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well on youtube like cobra kai amongst others. there's gotta be a handful of winners and netflix is one of them. disney is probably another. we will see how peacock shakes out. chris, thank you. expectations for that company is building up. >> when you talk to paul sweeney about it -- it's just a million people. all i do is observe what i see at home, which is emily in paris is in that i don't get it and i'm not supposed to. lisa, help? sorry. have boys, not to be cliche but it's not what they are watching you but i will say that netflix is still up more than 50%.
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jonathan: but they did crush it this year. but it sounds like you watch emily in paris? tom: i don't, the third episode i could not stop crying. jonathan: i imagine the bloomberg audience is the demo for emily in paris and everybody is upset that you are ruining the plot. coming up we have our guests. more after this. i get excited about it, from london and new york, this is bloomberg. ♪
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jonathan: from london and new york, this is bloomberg surveillance. we are alongside tom manley said. francine lacqua is off today. down five on the s&p 500. in the last 24 hours, this is the quote from policymakers over the federal reserve. it comes from a fed governor who said the following, premature withdrawal of fiscal support risks allowing recession dynamics to become entrenched, holding back employment and spending. message really forceful . the cynics amongst us may say
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promptis is not just a for authorities to do more, maybe it's an application for that job in the treasury if biden wins the election. she is reportedly one of the front runners. tom: there isn't a question about that, this is the season where those people jockey. but she is certainly more than qualified and has all the right attributes that you would see in the historic idea of a womanist treasury treasury secretary. but i think it's a statement that we see, and correct me if i'm wrong, cross countless speakers of different political and economic persuasions. we just don't let up on the fiscal stimulus. that's what we hear. we do see repeatedly but it's a lot more forceful from the governor. and a warning about not just a loss of memento -- a loss of
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momentum. strong words. lisa: underlying this is the idea that monetary support cannot spur growth without fiscal support. basically the fed might be close to out of tools and pushing on a string after stimulating as much as they have already. jonathan: the debate continues in d.c., it's lisa's favorite conversation. a never-ending physical story. what happened to the deadline two weeks ago? --ust don't tom: mcconnell and pelosi are arguing over fishing rights. jonathan: can you imagine? i would love that, if we could and fiscalthe brexit negotiations. this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> i think at this point we are probably underpricing the likelihood that you get the contested election and we are
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also pricing that trump wins the elections. the polls say that's less likely, but remember that has become -- and 20/20 than i would say other years. jonathan: and we see these capital markets ahead of the election less than two weeks ago. from london and new york, good morning. here's the price action this thursday morning, it shapes up as follow, in new york, futures are negative, down a little more than attend the 1%. in the bond market, a little bit on the longer and firmer end. 0.81% is your yield. we have some weakness recently, but some dollar strength today, including against the euro. the politics and into the markets.
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this is an important conversation. we spoke with a bloomberg and what i find so important here is to follow one person to see how they ebb and flow, greg has been remarkable about looking for trump to do better and making clear his morning note that the president has botched it. and into this debate, mr. biden has some nice headwind helping him out -- tailwind i should say, helping him out in pennsylvania and other places. oft is the distribution pennsylvania and other key states. good fors look very joe biden, but we always have to be cautious, because it looked almost equally good for hillary clinton in some respects. the real states to watch our florida. if florida goes biden and they are within the margin of error in both pole -- both polls in florida, then this is over for
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president trump. but if you wins florida and he and hed down the sunbelt gets one of those three midwestern states, pennsylvania, wisconsin, michigan, they were all within 1% last night, if he squeaks out one of those, likely pennsylvania, he could take this again. there's a lot of uncertainty at this point. i don't think anybody can predict -- i could not predict the outcome in 13 days, or whenever we get these outcomes. jonathan: there's no comfort whatsoever around the polls. we see this on repeat. about 50 times. every time i say a pole, somebody says but yeah, 2016, hillary clinton. what's the difference between now and the final run-up and 2016? jeanne: the first is the pandemic. we have never had a presidential election during a pandemic.
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it's always difficult to predict voter turnout. but trying to predict it in a pandemic when we have no mail-in inlots, and early voting enormous numbers. it's not just the u.s. where polling has been like this. brexit, israel, the united states, pollsters have a tough job. they did not do a bad job in 2016, but these are all within the margin of error. we have a close election like 2016 and likely have now. it makes predictions really tough. and things could change as early as tonight if this debate brings up something that we don't expect out of president trump or joe biden. lisa: both campaigns are assembling a warchest of lawyers to contest the election after the fact. john ratcliffe came out and talked about foreign interference. how much closer does this move
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us to having a viable argument for a contested election which could draw out for a long period of time? jeanne: i think it does move us closer. it depends on what happens on november 3, particularly in states like florida. if president trump wins florida and we see this thing go down within a really small margin, we are going to see litigation like we have never seen before. beenany people have involved but it's no longer about polling, not even about money, it's all about litigation. and that's a big change in the strongest democracy in the world, to think that this election could be decided in the court. that's a big change. thank you. you can look for her coverage today and tonight. shifting to the markets now, -- marcus iskets
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joining us today. his politics a catalyst to find a bid? or is it more traditional investment and finance matters? interesting an point where a biden win is bad for bad for the dollar and u.s. treasuries. but we know a contested election dollar andus for the would cause massive issues in the u.s. treasuries. a stimulusing package and a biden presidency, both of which would put shields up in the dollar down. but a contested election could upend everything. cartits horse and thursday. is dollar direction the horse or the cart? things it's one of these
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, but neither of the moment it becomes the horse always, the dollar direction sets everything. could be the it cart, but it could quickly become the horse. jonathan: we have to bring europe into this conversation. it looks terrible right now, relative to the recovery and china. and really not good relative to the united states. what's going on? by any it's not great stretch of the imagination across all of europe and all of the areas, even germany was doing well beforehand. but i think we have seen the worst of it at the moment. i do believe that things are under control much more this time around. and we will get a handle on this. there is no doubt that there is a rushing to bond markets. but the key thing that the
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european union has is that it has extremely successful bond sales, showing that there's demand and acceptance and it will fund the pandemic recovery. does that equal economic growth? of course not, but it doesn't mean political panic and collapsing. more will bethat done in december. and everybody expect the bank of england will do something in november. we are in a bad place, but not as bad as march or april. jonathan: it's an important distinction. we are talking about stagnation, -60 basis points on a 10 year yield in germany. a big topic on the program has been the treasury. the limits of the treasury ,elloff, walk me through it given where most of europe is priced at the moment. marcus: let's completely separate -- which is purely down to the ecb buying all of them.
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it's weird how in the last month or two months u.s. treasury yields have gone up and german bond yields have gone down. factor, down to one european central bank buying bonds -- bunds. that's just a technical factor. u.s. treasury yields are up because they know a fiscal packages coming. they know a biden administration is likely on its way, expecting bigger issuances of u.s. treasuries down the road. they are inching up, but the thing that keeps them down is that they know that the feds will not let yields go out of control. and in the worst-case scenario you have a contested election with a mask ramble of u.s. treasury yields. everybody is edging tentatively. there's no clear direction. and that will be to stay for the next three to four weeks.
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lisa: how much does u.s. stimulus matter for european markets? answer is hugely because where the u.s. goes we follow. and the dollars the real lead on this. this is even pushing the euro around. bewe do get this it will dollar negative, that's good for the rest of the world. , buta second-order benefit this confers some lovely warmth and flow. this will probably get a bigger boost for the u.s. package than anything it can do itself. jonathan: amazing. marcus, great to catch up. tom, that's the story. for the rest of the world, in the u.s. he could get a fiscal package but what's happening in european markets and elsewhere? tom: we will have to see. the keywords i think you will hear from a biden
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administration, if we get there, is the word normalcy, which has a heritage across america going past 200 years. what do you get with a second trump term? there's been much lust gushing about that because tonight we will be listening for -- much less discussion about that because we will be listening for anything from president trump. his good except that it's not there. jonathan: on the path to getting back to normal, we will get there. we have a nursing professor from john hopkins coming up. good morning. i'm jonathan ferro, this is bloomberg surveillance. ♪ ritika: some of president trump's advisers are urging him to change tactics before tonight's final debate.
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they are said to have told him to trade his aggressive demeanor for a lower key style. it's unclear what he will do when he faces joe biden. the president trails in the polls and the debate is one of the last high-profile chances for him to turn things around. and former president obama made his first imprison campaign appearance for joe biden. he ripped into president trump at an event. that thisma: i get president wants credit for the economy he inherited and zero claim -- zero blame for the pandemic he ignored. but the job does not work that way. tweeting at the television does not fix things jonathan:. -- ritika: the former president john ratcliffe says the islamic republic faked a
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series of intimidating messages to democratic voters. haveg iran and russia obtained voter registration information and tehran is using it. europe is bracing for a surgeon coronavirus cases to hit hospitals. but there are worries that there will not be enough trained medical staff to handle it. during the first wave of the pandemic, clinics came up with spare beds and governments made ventilators and face masks. still a shortage of doctors and nurses are putting health services to the test. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. guida -- gupta, this is bloomberg. ♪
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ritika: this is bloomberg later wence, coming up have more guests. this is bloomberg. ♪
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jonathan: from london and new york for our audience worldwide, alongside tom keene and lisa , francine lacqua's away. i wanted to check in on tesla. decent numbers and earnings today. is now $800 a share. we are catching up with a guest later today, tom keene, that's quite a call. i think you might've misted this year. 795 is my -- jonathan: you go in and everyone gets out. tom: i'm looking at 100 shares there. maybe john will speak about all of this tech earnings coming up next week. right now, this is an important
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conversation. jason farley does nursing, he's a professor at johns hopkins university. carein the trenches of the and -- of infectious disease, particularly the costs we see for doctors and nurses. jason farley on something less spoken of, which is not cases and deaths, but there are people who get better. jason i want to talk to about the lingering effects of this virus. is it tangible? is the fatigue genuine? good morning tom, we are seeing continued emerging data, there's a recent publication in the journal of the american medical association. it's showing that they follow patients after their initial onset of symptoms for up to two months after they initially became sick. they found that patients had
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fatigue is the most common symptom but they also had lingering symptoms like cough and difficulty breathing at times. ame patients, although smaller proportion, still had problems with taste and spell -- smile. we are -- taste and smell. jonathan: and what have we learned about -- -- reinfection. numbers ofsmall cases, but we have identified patients who have recovered from the infection and have a documented negative test, sometimes repeatedly negative, and then subsequently developed coronavirus again. it was always within the round the possibility. we talked about it on this show and the others that this would occur. we are seeing small numbers of cases where that information is growing. lisa: was the latest on the infectiousness of children?
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there was a theory that perhaps they were not infectious, those of us who had children said that cannot possibly be -- and now the idea is that they can spread the virus. withre we looking at this them spreading this along with adults? in terms of how good a child is at spreading compared to an adult, really they have an equal probability of transmission, depending on their viral load and how much they have and how much contact they have. that's the first thing. beinge wrong about them less spreaders three with certain infectious diseases, small kids in particular, the cough is a little weaker. so if you think cloud of dust littlehim, it's a smaller around children than adults. there is some data that supports
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they might be able to spread aerosol a little less far. overall they carry a similar and so are maybe a little less infectious. jonathan: let's try to finish on a positive note, the improvement in therapeutics, we are looking at case count and hospitalization. how much has improved over the last six months or so? now we have a glimmer of hope. most of the world is now using -- without dexamethasone. and therewo agents, are recommendations around the , whethering forward it's dexamethasone or remdesivir. there was a recent study that just came out which is still under peer-reviewed calling into
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question again the death benefit of remdesivir. but we had already had data that shows that remdesivir did not reduce death. a reduced symptom burden. so another study similar to what we already know. what we are seeing is cases of patients having -- but this will also help us reduce the mortality level as we scale these interventions. jason, thank you for catching up. we have headlines coming from the british chancellor. the open businesses are requiring -- -- requires more support. there are tier two restrictions which includes london. the latest from the chancellor is that they are making the job support scheme more generous. raising the aid and cutting the contributions from employers.
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that's the latest from the house of commons. more coming. from london and new york. this is bloomberg surveillance. ♪ >> self employed people are the dynamic entrepreneurial heart of the economy in this government is on their side.
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ritika: it was a fifth straight quarter of for tesla. they easily beat estimates. and they say they are on track to deliver --. elon musk is now looking at --. >> there's nothing left to be desired, we do ask -- we do lack affordability so we have to improve fort ability to really want to bring them and reach -- in reach of people. but also improve our production. >> this is up more than 400%. revolt overlient jeffrey epstein.
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may stopconsultants recommending apollo. he has said that he has professional ties to epstein who was found dead in his jail cell last year while awaiting trial. that is your latest bloomberg business flash. jonathan: thank you. here's your price action this thursday morning. down 2/10 of 1%. i would love to get the tom keene camera up to see what he does in this break. what does he do? he catches up on emily in paris. jonathan: oh he actually takes a nap. there he is. that's wonderful. does he just wake up in a couple of minutes and have a coffee and get ready to go? that was fascinating to find out
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what he does. he takes a nap. we have a real live shot of tom sleeping. this isare down, limited selloff in treasury which is a lot of dashing question for a lot of people. this is at of you self fulfilling prophecy. that the yield get too high that the feds will cap yields. some say that the fed has already implemented yield curve control without having to do anything. jonathan: more to come with our next guest, and hopefully tom keene is awake and four minutes. maybe you will sleep through? this is bloomberg. ♪ so you're a small business,
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k-shapee talk about a to recovery. it is absolutely true. those at the bottom are having very hard times. >> there is not clear how you get people to spend their money. >> the market is not as well prepared as it normally is for this kind of downside event. >> central banks and governments together.s >> this is a market that is thinking at some point stimulus is going to happen. >> we need support for the economy both for monetary and fiscal policy. >> this is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene, jonathan ferro and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: from new york and london for our audience worldwide, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance." live on bloomberg tv and radio. alongside lisa abramowicz and, i am jonathan counting you down to a debate in nashville, tennessee. tom: it will be exciting in nashville tonight. some real back-and-forth. some news flow. we have that o


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