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tv   Bloomberg Surveillance  Bloomberg  October 27, 2020 8:00am-9:00am EDT

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>> we are in an environment now where there is much less leverage in the equity market. >> we have huge levels of debt and we don't want to get into a debt trap. >> it is clear we are going to see downward revisions in many businesses. the question is how strong they are. >> the fed has a lot of upside to accelerate. i think be a going to maintain this pace. >> it is all the same recession. >> covid is the great un-equalizer. the strong get stronger. the weak get weaker. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning, everyone. "bloomberg surveillance," on radio coast-to-coast and
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worldwide, and television as well. a bit of a fog and rain in new york. a fog towards the election seven days on. after the carnage we saw yesterday, we really have to recalibrate where we are because we advanced so nicely for it yesterday. it really isn't all that much of a pull back to, is it -- pullback technically, is it? jonathan: let's be clear, the s&p 500 might be bouncing back by about 0.5%, europe is not as all. not just the caseload, but also the restrictions around the continent. europe has a problem. i keep talking about this. there's a real issue in the european economy. the recovery had already lost moment him just lost momentum. then you throw this on top -- already lost momentum. they need for this on top? it doesn't look good. ecb that gets to in
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meeting. s of freedom that christine lagarde has gets ever more narrow, doesn't it? jonathan: keep financial conditions loose. what i found fascinating, and guy and i went back and forth on this yesterday, if you ask people whether we had fiscal stimulus at the european level, i think they would say we do. we had a deal. but that deal hasn't been ratified, and that money hasn't been disbursed. that is the problem in europe right now. we are still staring at the ecb. they haven't got it done at the european level yet. they had an agreement, but that agreement hasn't been ratified in national parliament, and that money hasn't left the door, and might not for several months. . tom: chris verrone at strategic strategas points out
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we have not seen that much in bonds as well. what did you observe until right now? lisa: people declaring the death portfolio have been wrong. there has been more buying of treasuries, although not that significant of a yield move, but it raises this issue, the uncertainty you are talking about is not only around the election. it is around where the bigger risk lies, the treasury yields will go up very quickly or rapidly. the fog of uncertainty is probable about everything from the election to just the middle economy and the permanent ay we m in 0.39 vix comes points. that is important. 33to 32 on the brink of
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right now. you'll doesn't do anything -- yield doesn't do anything. euroentions the resilience. i do want to point out turkish lira with a second grim day, know whether way to put it, 8.15 right now. that is a 16% depreciation since the middle of the summer. lee ferridge is different. with an acclaimed career at commerce bank, and then almost a decade at rabobank, he holds court in boston at state street bank as their head of microstrategy. he brings it ahead of microstrategy -- head of macro strategy. what is the position as you try to hedge your bet out? are you able to hedge right now? lee: in terms of the outlook?
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you can. market is very neutrally positioned ahead of the election. a lot of people think a blue wave is priced in. it is not. if you look across a range of different indicators, blue wave isn't priced in. the market is nervous about a repeat of 2016. they are skeptical about the polls. people are really sitting on their hands. jonathan: where do you think it is not priced in? lee: i don't think it is priced in anywhere, quite honestly. , i thinkof the dollar there's a view amongst many which i agree with, that the dollar is going to go down whoever wins the election. you can argue there's some overweight positioning, but again, i think the view is we are going to get more policy stimulus. the barometer for me i am looking at most of all this
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probably em. a lot of people, most investors are very neutrally positioned. em is really the swing variable on the election. if we get the blue wave come a very positive for emerging markets. if we get biden with a split congress, that is a much more tricky environment for em. i would look at em positioning as a guide to market positioning. for me, that is neutral. jonathan: let's go back a couple of steps. stock goes down whoever wins. why? lee: in terms of the dollar, it is about the fed primarily. a is about foreign investors' bility to hedge their treasury purchases. toforeign investors can head those bond purchases, the dollar goes down. because thehey can fed is not offering any short-term rate premium. the curve is relatively steep.
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it sounds ridiculous with 80 basis points 10 year yield, but therefore the dollar goes down. whoever wins the election, that is not going to change. the fed is not going to be hiking rates for the next three or four years, whoever wins the election. you can argue on a blue wave, it probably goes down faster because we get the fiscal stimulus. there's probably an increase to the current account deficit. either way, the dollar goes down whatever the election outcome. jonathan: what is the threshold -- lisa: what is the threshold for the fed easing further? lee: that's a very good question. the trigger, if anything, would be yields. if we see yields start to backup, i think the fed will be fearful of that. that would mean they would ease further to control yields. i know they don't have yield curve control while is a policy, but they don't want to see higher yields. again, if you get the blue wave, talk of fiscal stimulus, if we
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see yields backup, the fed could restart or re-expand qe to hold yields down. i think that is a big trigger. but even without that, we have this shiny new framework. we have average inflation targeting. we have maximum employment rather than full employment. on their own forecasts back in september, they don't achieve either of those targets in the next three years on their own forecasts. so i think the fed is going to ease further anyway. otherwise, what of the point of switching the framework? you don't achieve them on your own forecast, and you do nothing about it? i think the fed are going to ease policy further anyway. tom: i love that. i thought it was the third album of reo speed wagon, this shiny new framework. let's go with it. we don't know what it is going to be or what it is. how do you invest given this shiny new framework? lee: listen, it's very hard.
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policy is very loose. but valuations are hard. valuations are really tricky. we seen this dollar debasement consistently over the last four or five months. first up was gold. we got to $2000. then it was tech stocks, and we got huge valuations there. then it was the euro to an extent. everyone started worrying about the ecb. it's tough. if we get the blue wave, as i mentioned before, i think emerging markets could have a fantastic when he 21. you will have a weakening dollar. you will have a big infrastructure spending plan. you will have huge fiscal stimulus in the u.s. you have a fantastic 2021 for emerging markets. fx, equities, fixed income. if you get the sort of split , it iss and president
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much harder. i think the environment becomes much harder for investors. policy is going to stay loose. that is going to support asset prices probably, but the volatility in the sideways market we have seen since august, the s&p is at the same level now as it was in mid-august. as you mentioned earlier, europe are the lowest since june. those sort of more sideways markets will be the result if we have a split white house and congress. investing is much harder. if you get the blue wave, em is where i would be. jonathan: lee, come back soon. we would love to catch up. equities bouncing back. one stock to watch ahead of the open, mc out with some news in open,st 10 minute -- the amc up with some news in the last in minutes. several locations in northern california will resume operations beginning friday, october 30. that news just breaking. the stock up by about 5.5% in early trading.
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tom: it has been challenging. i thought you were going to amd off of xilinx. you're confusing me, jon. jonathan: we will get that later. tom: it is like work here. jonathan: the place he would watch a movie at, tom. tom: when was the last time he went to the movies? they are back almost two pandemic lows of march and april right now. i guess they've come back a little bit. that's all there is to it. jonathan: lisa, you have been following the debt story as well. this has been one of the candidates people have been a little bit worried about in the last month. lisa: frankly, the fact that the shares are up this much in premarket trading on the news that they are just reopening theaters indicates how low the bar is. that's all i can say. jonathan: exceptionally low for this industry. it is tough. of avonp, tina fordham hearst advisory services weighing in on the selection. we might have a result on november 4. it might be an issue for this
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market because maybe we won't. tom: it could go on as long as brexit. jonathan: what, four and a half years? tom: yeah. [laughter] jonathan: i hope not. you hope not, too. this is bloomberg. ♪ -- has been sworn in as a justice of the supreme court. required of two oath's was administered not long after she was confirmed. chief justice john roberts will administer the second oath today at the court. her confirmation solidifies a conservative 6-3 majority. the record coronavirus surge that started with young americans has now reached the oldest populations. according to the cdc, counties with the largest 65 and older populations now have an average 19 daily cases per 100,000
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residents. that is 67% higher than a month ago. china ramped up its purchases of american goods last month. still, it is far from the full-year target set out under phase one of the trade deal with the u.s.. the chinese bought more american oil, soybeans, and cars. with three months to go in the year, beijing is a little more than 1/3 of the way to the goal of $170 billion in u.s. imports. in the u.k., prime minister boris johnson faces a revolt from more than 50 numbers of his own party in parliament. told johnson his strategy of targeting local areas with three sections was disproportionate -- with restrictions was disproportionately damaging the economies of northern regions. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta.
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this is bloomberg. ♪
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♪ pres. trump: we have the best testing the world. that is why we shows in many cases, but because we do the most testing in the world. but we are doing great, and
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excuse me, here i am. mr. biden: the bottom line is donald trump is the worst possible president, the worst possible person to try to lead us through this pandemic. he either doesn't have any idea what to do or just doesn't care. jonathan: president trump and vice president biden continuing to rally yesterday, with one week of campaigning still to go. from london and new york, good morning. one hour and 12 minutes away from the opening bell. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. futures up, positive on the s&p 500. we advanced 0.4%. we talk a lot about the weakness in europe. ,uro resilience still the story $1.1830. in the bond market, muted price action after yesterday's rally. tom: muted is the right word. we will watch it amid all of this uncertainty. part of that is domestic uncertainty. part of that is the science we
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have been talking about, particularly with dave ricks of lilly. tina fordham studies at avonhur with reallyservices thoughtful senses of tying this altogether. what does the state department look like with a biden victory? some well, it might have people back in it, tom. the state department was famously hollowed out during the trump administration, and the conduct of the u.s. foreign policy really was coming more from the white house. we have a lot of demoralized u.s. diplomats around, so i think the broad expectation of a biden presidency, as unexciting as it sounds, would be a return to the kind of conduct of u.s. foreign policy that we have become used to globally,
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regardless of whether it is a republican or a democrat in the white house. tom: second terms are always different, and with no disrespect to mr. trump, it seems all second terms enter jubilant and become exhausted more gradually. would you suggest a changed foreign policy in a second term trump, or simply more of the same? say, one of the facts about being a second term u.s. president is you are a lame-duck on the first day. you know, you're not going to be reelected from there. i would say not enough time has been spent thinking about what i second term foreign policy might look like under president trump, but one thing i think investors can count on is the continuation of tough rhetoric towards china. and in fact, that stands even if you have joe biden in the white house. so u.s.-china trade tensions would remain strong.
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i think you will see foreign powers actually test a second trump term for policy. perhaps being a bit more assertive. we are starting to see this in turkey from president erdogan, for example. who else might want to test the resolve of president trump or an incoming president biden? it is a good time in many ways to see if the u.s. is willing to honor its agreements. lisa: it is hard to look out past the next seven days. there is still so much uncertainty about how this election process will unfold in the weeks and months afterwards. among democrats, there is persistent fear of a 2016 redux. hillary clinton leading in polls , people predicting she had an incredibly good chance of beating now president trump, and clinton taking a backseat and not campaigning as robustly in a
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certain key swing states. now joe biden doing something similar. is this 2016 all over again? tina: democrats will certainly hope not, for many reasons. first of all, hillary's polling lead narrowed in the final two weeks, which is something we are not seeing yet with joe biden. his lead has been pretty consistent. so he has that on his side. other factors that make this time different is far fewer undecided voters. people have been clear much earlier on in the race then we are used to in u.s. elections. and we don't have third-party candidates that are really helping divide things further. so there are some important differences between now and 2016. but for sure, it remains possible that there could be another divided outcome between the popular vote and the electoral college, which is why
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i think the margin is really the key variable to watch for here. president trump of course would be hoping for another electoral and he doesvictory, have a pass for that remaining despite the negatives and the headwinds against him in this race. but another difference would be exampleike in 2000, for , i don't think democrats will roll over quite so easily as they did at that time. jonathan: four years later, is the polling better this time around? tina: this is what my pollster friends assure me. i am not a pollster or an election focused or -- election forecaster myself. to be fair to them, they were pretty accurate in the national polling because hillary clinton
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did win on that front. it was the electoral college whiteg, and specifically non-college-educated men who were under the radar screening. this time, if anything, i expect pollsters will have overcompensated for this error. it is hard to think of a kind of hidden pocket of people, a cohort that could appear that haven't been factored in. and then of course, we have the phenomenon of what looks like historically huge turnout. jonathan: tina, great to catch up. appreciate your time this morning. urst fordham there, avonh advisory services head of political strategy. deleted hillary clinton on election day -- the lead at hillary clinton on election day, three points. the final popular vote, the lead
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was around two points. this time around, the lead is around eight points at the moment in the average goal. i think lisa has made the point that if polls are wrong for time that is ais total failure for this industry in a huge way. tom: there's no question if they do it back to back, yes, it is a problem. there are polls that are successful. trafalgar it's a lot of think for being -- a lot of ink for being successful in 2016. . the polls can't reach a huge body of americans that are just un-pollable. it is just not there to reach out and grasp those people. if the president in 40 of the 50 states today? he is making the circuit, looking for those unreachable. jonathan: can you imagine
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tom doing the phone interview when a pollster calls up? let me tell you what happened 50 years ago. [laughter] lisa: roses. jonathan: hold on, i'm getting a drink. lisa: let's talk. jonathan: the poll was incomplete. it was meant to go on for two more days.
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jonathan: it is tuesday morning. good morning. i am jonathan ferro alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz. we are live on bloomberg tv and radio. equity futures up 11. still positive on the day. meansic data in america michael mckee is back with us. good morning. michael: we are seeing the numbers for durable goods orders come in, up 1.9% on the month. that is an improvement over the .5% in august. these are september numbers so they will figure in the third quarter gdp we will get later in the week. capital goods orders, nondefense aircraft, that is the one economists watch because it tells you what is going into the gdp numbers from the business side. business spending up 1% on the month, that is down from the 1.9
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percent we saw in august. it is double what was forecast. shipments upood .3%. that is important because it tells us something about how the economy was going during that third quarter. it is not as good in september as it had been. in august we saw capital goods shipments up 1.5%. let me scroll down to the breakdown of the numbers. what we are looking at in terms of unfilled orders, down at this point by .2%. the biggest movers appear to be in shipments, down 1.1% -- machinery shipments, down 1.1%. continues withmy the story we have been telling about the economy since the stimulus and it at the end of july. tom: you take the three month
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moving average, and the fact is -- moving average michael: it is almost impossible to say where we are going with the spirit it has slowed down some. you look at the capital goods months, andprior august they were revised up. again.e being revised you do see a fallout.
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the atlanta fed gdp number now 35%. somewhere in that range is the general consensus of people in the markets. we will get a snapback. it will still leave a short of where we were in january before the pandemic started, but it will be a big gain for the third quarter. tom: michael mckee, thank you so much. not a statistic that moves the market. upures up 12, dow futures 71. willuld point out thursday be claims, to me that is still an important idea. i think that song was a dozen roses. i'm not sure. what was that? jonathan: someone was calling. i cannot turn it off. i imagine i would get in trouble. i will make sure it is muted. it was the florist calling. tom: you are on hold. jonathan: just checking the number, it was the florist.
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i am happy about what i had to say about their delivery. here we are. ita: wanted to let you know was perfect and he gave you a dozen more. carry on. tom: we will move on. lisa got a dozen from harry styles. michael mckee, thank you for that. us, he hasnley with been wonderful about this american economy. leslie calibrate what growth estimate -- let's recalibrate, what is your growth estimate for fourth quarter. stephen: i am above consensus for q4. i think the consumer continues to have good momentum even with the absence of another stimulus package. q4 whichout 8% for puts me close to double the consensus, and it continues to tail off as we move into next year, still above trend but may be 4% or 5% first half of next
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year. lisa: the mystery of holiday spending, i was reading a story about how much uncertainty there is, and it seems like economists are playing psychologist, they're going out and saying people will need retail therapy. what is your view on holiday sales and how good or bad they might be? stephen: there are two things to keep in mind. the first one is the holiday season is predominantly a goods event rather than a services event. some people give gift certificates for services, but for the most part people are buying stuff. the demand for goods has been very strong because people cannot spend as much on a lot of the services they would typically be buying. that bodes well. the other piece is the income numbers suggest at least through august, and we will get september numbers on friday that savings rates are high, people of plenty of wherewithal to spend, that is not true for every household. in the aggregate, household
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finances are in very good shape. i think there is a good case to be made that the holiday season should be pretty good, and certainly if we were to get some sort of stimulus, particularly if it included another round of rebate checks before the end of the year, that would add more fuel to the fire. stuffpeople are buying and you can see fluctuations in durable goods orders. there have been difficulties fulfilling all of the demand over the pandemic. heading into the winter, we are expecting the potential for more supply disruption based on factories having to shut down or people getting sick. how much are you looking for that or is that a concern of yours? it is not a major concern. it is certainly going to be an issue. retailers are scrambling to replenish their shelves, and we have seen tremendous numbers in
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terms of imports over the last couple of months, consumer goods , whether it is the transportation stuff, the support, the railroad, the trucking companies. everybody is scrambling to get stuff in place for the christmas season. disruptions, it is going to mean shoppers will want to get out early and get what they want -- jonathan: stephen stanley, i think we might have a little bit of a disruption. my apologies, we are going to let you go. tom: thank you. jonathan: the relationship between the economic data and the increase in cases, i think that is a relationship we need to spend more time on is that correlation loosens up. particularly in the united states. in europe we have increasing cases, but there is an easier read for economist because they
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have the restrictions going back on the economy. i think for the united states it is different. without restrictions, the case is increasing, what does that mean for growth? consumerist disengage. read on the united states is harder, compared to europe, which is a struggle. what happens to america? tom: the mathematics of this, , fancymple virology differential equations, forget about that. the case calculus is different country to country. i would note in the last week the death count is moving up, not nearly like the cases, but nevertheless the deaths are lifting up a little bit. to the people say do not stress about this over the economy, that does give pause in the last week. jonathan: you mentioned i see you capacity. in texas as well. that is a struggle. tom: also on the border. jonathan: lisa, you read more
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research than anybody i know. what are people saying on this topic? lisa: the difficulty of gaming it out. the idea you have some people saying this is a real concern. why brought up the supply disruption is it is one reason people think that we could see more food inflation and how this could be an issue particularly for poor areas that cannot afford to buy food, and you are starting to see concerns about that being raised. do your point, there is a question of people disregarding the fact they are getting the virus and going about their business. you are seeing the business activity slowed dramatically in some of these areas without restrictions, but because people are getting sick and realizing that. there is a direct correlation, whether it has been priced into the market. people are looking past that and looking into the vaccine. jonathan: and also where you see it. manufacturing not so much, services absolutely. that is been captured in the
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pmi. tom: i am glad you bring this up because david rosenberg was brilliant on this. i took a screen grab and put it out on twitter. the service sector inflation dynamic is original. all you need to know is service is sustained at 3% inflation, and that disinflation has dropped like a rock. goods inflation has come back and that is the inflation fear we heard be earlier from chris water of longview. rosenberg was heated about the service sector disinflation staying here with reduced aggregate demand. jonathan: and a couple of minutes i walk away. we have a big week of tech earnings. what are you looking for this week? thursday after the close will be huge. october 29, when we get those earnings, microsoft after the close, lisa mentioned that puritan amazon, apple, facebook, others as well. tom: i read every word from
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citigroup on apple yesterday, i read every word from joe feldman at amazon. they are both bulls. doug cassidy is grim on some of the outlooks. i look at it and it is almost 101. i'm just trying to observe. the only store busy on madison avenue is apple. that is a fact. i look at amazon, i watch these guys. you talk about essential workers. the guys with the cards and the boxes in aing us 45 downpour or fragile rain on a cart with a strap around it, they do it, and they get them there. ,hey put the boxes down gently which impresses the hell out of me. there are double the boxes there were months ago. that is a fact. jonathan: are you monitoring the delivery of amazon boxes? a final word on this, how the market is responding to earnings
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from the united states. if you cut guidance, you get punished. lisa: sarah ponczek put out a statistic that it was the biggest punishment and equity markets for disappointing for missing. you can expect a fierce response for big tech. tom: i am sitting in the lobby, it is cocktail hour, that is security. lisa: there is music, tom. jonathan: i live in the same building. i go through that lobby. i have seen it. everyone thinks he is joking. mr. ferro, welcome back. good to see you. coming up, solita marcelli. from london and new york, this is bloomberg. with the first word news, i am ritika gupta. it is a big win for president
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trump and congressional republicans in the final week of the election campaign. the senate confirmed amy coney barrett to be the newest justice on the supreme court. 6-3 solidifies a conservative majority. barrett may be asked to weigh in on cases that could determine the outcome of a close election. lillyical trial of an eli experimental antibody therapy will not resume. federal researchers concluded the drug will probably not help hospitalized coronavirus patients with advanced cases. other trials are ongoing to see if the drug helps. the trump administration has taken another step certain to make china angry. the state department has signaled its approval for a potential water million dollar sales of anti-ship missiles to taiwan. beijing imposed unspecified sanctions on boeings defense unit, lockheed martin, and
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raytheon because of a previously announced arm sale to taiwan. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> i think they are starting to ,rice some type of reopening
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but they get very overbought on a short-term basis so things like yesterday does not surprise me that we had a retrenchment. stanley simon of morgan on equities and the bond market. as we look at bloomberg well, we look at ritholtz wealth. barry ritholtz joins us. i want to get away from stocks and bonds and talk about real estate. you live in the greater new york city area which goes up to the bottom of the adirondacks and that is a good geography. there is a boom in the forest you inhabit. can it sustain? what happens to suburban real estate that the people like you are buying the day the vaccine comes out? barry: interesting question. you have a very unusual sinceion that persisted
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the great financial crisis ended and became more intense under the pandemic, which is simply a surprisingly limited amount of inventory. in many areas surrounding cities it is at record lows. move ins to try to these circumstances unless you have to. at the same time, if you have the ability to not be trapped in a small apartment with a couple of kids all on top of each other while sharing a lobby and sharing elevator with people, it is a sub optimal set of ascumstances and rates are low for mortgages as they have ever been historically. that sets the stage to see a modest exodus out of city centers, but with so little inventory, that will send prices skyrocketing. that is not sustainable. tom: someone like john miller has been great on this. i have another trent which is
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the zuckerberg post office across from madison square garden where facebook is going in, you have lord & taylor, amazon, and on and on. it seems like there are other trends beyond the popular one about the suburbs. barry: here is a trend for you. cities have been intellectual capital centers for a thousand years. i did not see any sign that trend is going to change. to have seen the ability disperse your workforce elsewhere. of -- i doa badge not want to say honor -- but it is prestigious to relocate in the center of a city like san francisco or new york or chicago or boston we were new orleans. , that is favorite city where all of the intellectual and business energy is located. lisa: if you believe that, what is the investment thesis?
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is there a plate to get in at the bottom if you do have faith things will return back where they were with cities as an intellectual capital. to look atyone tends things in a binary form and it is either the best or the worst. the real world is more nuanced. lisa: you don't say. barry: the thesis that cities are dying in any sort of apartment or office space rates are terrible parallels what we heard about mall investments just a couple of years ago, before the pandemic. it turns out we are pretty good at figuring out how to repurpose these things and generate some sort of return. i am not brave enough to be loading the boat with apartment reads located in urban centers. that is not my specialty. there are other people who focus on things like that. look at folks that run hedge
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funds specifically to invest in real estate related ventures. you come up with an investable thesis that is complicated, it requires a paired trade, but there is certainly dislocations and that means opportunity. lisa: meanwhile we are headed to an election seven days away, and i was struck by a slate article talking about how the states that have gotten hit hardest by the pandemic all vote democratic and are run by democratic leadership come and talk about how this is complicating some of the stimulus talks. how much you invest around this election or use it on your hands until you have certainty? barry: the slate article is interesting because they are the binary set of circumstances. cities with huge tourism businesses have been getting shellacked, and states as well. the top three were hawaii, nevada, new york city. new york has a very diverse economy, but clearly broadway
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being shafted tourism come industry shutting down is having a big impact. in terms of the investable thesis of the election, i think people misunderstand it. people made a terrible mistake in 2016 thinking the outcome of the election was a decision about risk and equities. again, a little more nuanced, a little more complicated. it is a sector by sector analysis. you have had president trump, who is a fan of coal and a fan of carbon-based energy and office for just about four years. coal has done as poorly as it has ever done. the marketplace has already made a decision on call long before january 2017. oil is doing terribly. look at things like tesla and alternative energy. that is kind of a tell. banks have been going sideways. they are not doing spectacular. i do not know if that is a regulation or capital requirement.
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when you look elsewhere, we will see more regulations, more upper end tax increases if joe biden wins and the democrats take the senate, but it is sector by sector, not risk on, risk off. tom: barry ritholtz with us, i cannot say enough about his work for bloomberg opinion. he also has a podcast of note, to say the least. lisa, futures, i get that it is a bounce, but i do not see too much of a bounce of what we saw yesterday. the uncertainty is great. lisa: there is interesting uncertainty considering the fact there was not much last week. people seemed pretty confidence with the blue wave thesis, but what the ramifications of the market would be. there seems to be a hesitation, people nervous about that conviction. you see that in the demand for bonds despite the record sales this week. tom: no question about that. if you're watching a twitter
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feed, it is about every three minutes somebody else has a new poll out. i have to go to claims on thursday. maybe we will get an improving number into the 700,000 level, but we have not said enough about gdp numbers coming up as well. the state of the american economy in the election will be easy to look at starting thursday. lisa: the economy has done better than people expect, but the jobless claims, i feel like the story is the increase in permanent joblessness. how much of a setback is it for the economy? we were talking about how the vaccine would solve all. there is an issue of a much bigger permanently unemployed population. what you do with that? vicksutures up six on the -- on the vix. lisa is 47 barrels a dollar large on the two oil drums she has in the room. lisa: nailed it. tom: gold at 1906.
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much more. jeffrey currie with goldman sachs. good morning with bloomberg radio, on bloomberg television. ♪ are you frustrated with your weight and health?
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london for our audience worldwide, good morning, good morning. the countdown to the open starts right now. equity futures rolling over. well-off session highs, still positive by five points come up a little more than 5%. candidates making the closing arguments with just one week until the election. president trump: you cannot let the democrats and joe biden have a far-left victory. vice president biden: donald trump is the worst possible president. president trump: this has to be a defeat. it has to be a rebuke of socialism. vice president biden: he does not have any idea what to do or he does not care. jonathan: both candidates gearing up for a frantic final week of campaigning. donald trump planning to wizard five states over the next 48 hours including michigan, wisconsin, nebraska, nevada.


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