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tv   Bloomberg Surveillance  Bloomberg  October 28, 2020 8:00am-9:00am EDT

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and be healthy. get off the floor and get on the aerotrainer. go to, that's >> it doesn't really matter who is elected. i think the market is headed higher into next year. >> we are in an environment now where there is much less leverage in the equity market. >> we have huge levels of debt and we don't want to get into a debt trap. >> the service is part of the economy is really in trouble. >> it is clear that we are going to see downward revisions in many businesses. the question is how strong they are. >> they call it a double-dip, but it is all the same recession. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. good morning, everyone. york, a metaphor for the fog in the market.
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the uncertainty is out there in the election and particularly on pandemic news worldwide. jon ferro, we are touching -50 on futures. on radio and tv, we will do more data checks throughout the hour. rro in withn let fe his famed cross asset that a check as well. three big figures out on vicks. what is the data on the screen that matters to you right now? jonathan: i just think the news flow out of europe has hijacked the whole agenda morning. the data is looking at the banks and bank equities, particularly in europe. i think the banks this week are down 6%, 7% in europe. that's where the story is, more restrictions. macron a little bit later this evening. reports out of france suggesting a one-month lockdown. chancellor merkel talking about proposing restaurants that proposing closing restaurants and bars for a month -- talking
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about proposing closing restaurants and bars for a month. it is winter now in europe. that the idea right now not only is the virus increasingly severe throughout europe and a lot of places in the u.s., but it has become increasingly clear there will be no fiscal support bill from washington, d.c. we can stop talking about talks. they've all gone home. how much bandwidth does the fed have to simulate -- to stimulate? what i am looking at is you are seeing pervasive weakening in credit markets. you are seeing riskier credit deals getting pulled from market, people not wanting to buy right now, a shift from the past few weeks. tom: in west or us -- in westeros, winter is coming, and it is coming everywhere else. i want to go back to the banks before we go to daniel morris and see the partition between
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the american banks and the eu banks, and for that matter, for you in london with the u.k. banks. scribed those distinctions as you see it. jonathan: i would say out of you can drip come of the biggest news in the last week -- i would save out of u.k. and europe come of the biggest news of the last , i was talking to guy johnson about it yesterday. not about the price of credit here, about the supply of it. the banks in europe are in charge of that. tom: we are going to do the data through the hour here. -51 on spx right now. $21, $1891ed, down an ounce. daniel morris has seen this before with bnp paribas, the chief market strategist. i like what you are saying about
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the transatlantic partition, that pmi numbers are different. is europe in recession? daniel: certainly the risk of that happening in the fourth quarter has gone up. we had talked about the different shapes of the recovery several months ago, and it does look more and more likely that you may well see a w in europe, if not necessarily in the u.s. jonathan: if we do get that w, what does that mean for your allocation for europe and the next few quarters? daniel: currently we are overweight u.s. and emerging markets as opposed to europe in our multi-asset portfolio, so it simply reflects that risk you see in europe, and in addition to that, the relative lack of tools, options and europe to compensate for that, be it monetary stimulus, fiscal stimulus, you just don't have as evers in china, or
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the u.s. for that matter. rightan: europe's present now is in america's near-term future. does it have to be that way? daniel: i think there's two things we need to keep in mind. whether it is the evolution of the pandemic itself, the number of infections and the number of deaths come from that point of view, i think it is certainly a possibility that europe is ahead of the curve in this sense, and this is what we are going to see in the u.s. but what is really going to matter more for the markets is the reaction to it. it is the restrictions driving the action in the market today. we've had the increase in infections and france since august, but the markets are relatively blase about that. the assumption had been no more lockdowns. we just can't go back to nationwide lockdowns because it is too costly. but we are seeing now in the face of very high numbers in terms of daily affections -- daily infections, governments are stepwise moving in that direction. they still want to avoid that,
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but the pressure is building and that is the ultimate endpoint. baby not full nationwide lockdowns, but something closer to that than they would have thought about a month ago. lisa: is this a buying opportunity if there is more of a pullback in the face of restrictions on lockdowns, given the fact that people are expecting some sort of fiscal support next year? daniel: we are not allocated that way. we have a modest overweight to equities in general. i think we are always waiting for a good buy the dip opportunity. our outlook is constructed partly on the expectation for some sort of fiscal stimulus in the u.s. in europe even, there will be a point where you want to move in, but it is probably premature to be making that change right now. lisa: what do you make of the fact that earnings have been coming in broadly vendor than expected, and get -- broadly better-than-expected, and yet investors have been punish bar?e not enough above the
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daniel: i think the fact that you have had such a swing in sentiment over the last week or so, inevitably earnings seasons are backward looking, and we are going to say that was really great for the fourth quarter, but is it telling me is much as i want about the quarter. helping, necessarily as you point out. that said, if we do look at the forward guidance, it has been of thesitive in 2/3 companies that have given guide so far. we no fewer companies are offering guidance then in the past, and it is still relatively early in their earnings season, but if there is something investors want to focus on to justify more positive outlook, i think it is the guidance that companies are giving. paribas'ss all of bnp research, do you see elasticity
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of ceos? boeing goes to 130,000 jobs. do they have a lot of room to cut costs, to right size? do they have a lot of law roo -- a lot of room to globally right size given this pandemic? daniel: i think it is going to be extremely challenging for those industries like airlines where you appreciate that it is not just the short-term effect from the lockdowns. it is a longer-term ramification of what has changed thanks to the pandemic. it is a change of mentality. people realizing they don't need to fly around the world for a couple of our meeting anymore, or don't need to commute into the office every day in the way we have in the past, so arguably permanent changes that are going to hit some industries quite significantly. this going to be much bigger restructuring than anyone would haven't has abated. so i think there's certain parts of the economy that are going to rapidough a pretty
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change, but where is that demand going to go? aggregate demand is going to continue to rise. it is just going to be spent in different ways. we need to really focus on where those opportunities are as well. jonathan: i just want to finish on the markets on the headline level and thing about the following concept. i wonder how much support is beneath this market on a day like today. the concept of a vaccine put, how important is that vaccine put? just the idea that people want to stay allocated to risk because they leave at some point, we could get that key announcement. daniel: certainly the timing is crucial, but even if it isn't in the next few weeks, if we think a year out and you are an equity investor, you are hopefully buying a stream of earnings that goes a bit further out in the next order to six months. i think the other thing we can put aside is there is still that
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inevitable uncertainty about the outcome and the impatiens of that, so you've got these two negative factors weighing on the market. one of those will hopefully be resolved by this time next week, though maybe not. the second, as we all hope, sooner rather than later. jonathan: great to catch up, as always. dan morris of bnp paribas asset management, thank you. will we resolve some of those uncertainties, those unknowns by the end of november? tom: you want to try to get out for five days after november 3, and i do agree there is massive uncertainty about those hours and days after 2:00 in the morning wednesday morning. when we see the election come out on november 3, to your point of getting through november, that overlays. but i am going to then go back to aggregate demand. andsee it in oil, in gold
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$24, print down $1.60, well below $40 a barrel. jonathan: did that dodgers win upset you so much? tom: it is like the red sox back in my childhood. jonathan: are you really upset? tom: you don't understand. jonathan: you're actually a bit delicate this morning. tom: i'm always delicate. [laughter] jonathan: well, let's talk about. how are you feeling? what is going on? tom: i don't know, it is just crushing. jonathan: it's ok. lisa: morning therapy. tom: the red sox were so bad like flatwon, i felt earth society and we really didn't land on the moon. it was that much trauma of my youth. lisa: what is happening? jonathan: we can keep this going. tom: jon ferro with another hour jon at 10:00 a.m.
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jonathan: no one wants to see that. coming up, a conversation you don't want to miss, henrietta treyz of veda partners, director of economic policy. a really important conversation up next. this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: with the first word news, i'm ready to. president trump -- i'm rick agrippa. president -- i'm ritika gupta. president trump appears resigned to getting a stimulus bill after the election. the white house blames house speaker nancy pelosi for the delay. pelosi put the blame on santa republican leader mitch mcconnell. mcconnell is reluctant to embrace a larger scale really felt. president trump -- larger scale relief bill. bloomberg has learned the president may issue an executive order requiring an analysis of fracking.
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fracking is used to get oil and gas out of underground rock formations. the president would require an evaluation of how the progress could be expanded. biden has denied the president's claims that he would ban fracking. france has reported its most deaths from coronavirus since april, and president macron is preparing new measures to control the spread of the disease. german chancellor angela merkel will reportedly suggest closing restaurants and bars through november. booming cloud demand is driving micro soft sales. quarterly revenue rose better-than-expected 12%, due in part to demand for cloud computing services to support employees working from home. it was micro soft -- it was microsoft's 13th
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quarter of double-digit increased sales. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪
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pres. trump: this election is a choice between the trump super recovery we are having or a biden depression, sad to say. mr. biden: everybody knows who
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donald trump is. let's show him who we are. we choose hope over fear, unity over division, science over fiction, and truth overlies. -- truth over lies. jonathan: just six days until the selection wraps up. your equity market -- this election wraps up. your equity market shaping up as follows. risk aversion, the epicenter of it, europe. euro-dollar bricking $1.18, comfortably south of that number now. equity futures down 1.52%. cases picking up, hospitalizations picking up. restrictions coming back in france, in germany. we will get the details on that a little bit later this evening. that is the story out of europe. tom: just a bit of stability, but pushing against that, gold
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to new lows, down $25, and equity futures -15. right now, henrietta treyz joins us with veda partners, director of economic policy. we are thrilled she could come to us on a brave day for louisiana, with the fourth or fifth hurricane coming. this is serious stuff down south. great to have you on, and your spirit is noted. there are 6, 7, eight permutations for the senate coming out of this election. which permutation is most interesting to you? henrietta: i think the most interesting permutation is the one that could have real impact for the markets and actually move some needles, if we have one party controlled in one direction or the other. inducing oratility exciting event that would actually portend legislation in 2021 would be if you had a democrats week. there's no chance that the house
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flips to republican control, so the way you need to see that come to pass is if biden wins the white house and democrats win the senate with 60 or more seats. it is a heavy lift. the races are pretty purple and in deep red states, in texas, georgia, north carolina, kansas, iowa. it is very difficult, but it is more likely than not. we recently shifted our odds to 55% that there will be a democrat accent, based on the very consistent pulling we have inn since the first debate favor of joe biden and democratic candidates down the ticket. jonathan: the word that often gets used with a week to go is momentum. where are you seeing momentum for the president? henrietta: you are seeing momentum for the president in some pockets of pennsylvania. that is a very popular story right now, as you are seeing anecdotal data come out of suburbs and rural areas where the president won the election
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in 2016, and also in florida, there has been a slew of republican leading polls that have attracted a lot of attention to give the president some optimism going into the race. florida is a must when for president trump. vice not a must win for president biden. biden pulls ahead in any particular state by 3.5 points or more on average, i won't have the state to him. maia simpson is that florida goes to trump -- my assumption is that florida goes to trump. that has been the case for a couple of years now. they represent pockets of forrate good news republicans in the latest polls. lisa: based on all of the
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mail-in votes and the recent court cases and a number of states, which that'll ground may process perspective on how votes are counted, when they are counted, whether things will be counted, etc. that you think could tip the balance? henrietta: it is definitely overwhelming. there is 300 some odd court case is pending right now, and my guess is this won't be litigated until well after the race concludes, but one of the and to focus on his north carolina. north carolina is going to start reporting at 7:30 p.m. where aswing state, lowerican incumbent is than it democratic challenger. you are seeing that the suburban female voter is overwhelmingly skewing in favor of a joe biden at this point. because of their early reporting , their ability to count mail-in ballots early, and ultimately
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the fact that they are on the east coast, so they are in the early possible -- the earliest possible time zone to start reporting, north carolina is on my list. arizona, pennsylvania, ohio, wisconsin, there was a pullout this morning from i think "the new york times," that suggests that biden has a seven point lead in wisconsin. personally, i think that is a major outlier. a sample set that looks like 2016, and you still have biden up 12 points, mostly driven by white suburban women. when you are watching the polls come in, if you concentrate on those areas, he might get a read regardless of the legal were medications going on in those states -- legal ramifications going on in those states. are moderate democrats on your hill away from
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or apart from the liberals? henrietta:henrietta: so far. that is such a great question. when i talk to folks on the biden campaign, i hear about 2022 in every civil discussion. that is because they remember 2010. they read the tea party wave, and they don't want to do that again. the gains speaker pelosi has worked so hard for in the house in the last couple of years would be immediately undone by a midterm election. it is almost like they really internalized the 2010 losses and are carrying that forward with them. between kamala harris and joe biden, you are looking at 50 years of experience in the senate. they know what it is to be elected again and again. that is what the democratic conference in the senate would be, more moderate than today, they are obviously very moderate candidates, particularly joe biden. jonathan: henrietta, thank you. henrietta treyz, veda partners director of economic policy. just howportant point,
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moderate that potential blue wave could be, and the senate half of that blue wave is the important piece. tom: what is interesting is you have 2022 for the democrats, and the election results, and we heard the same thing on the moderatee, where republicans are trying to reform, if president trump loses, with the trump brigade will look like in 2022, so it cuts both ways. jonathan: henrietta mentioned that poll on wisconsin, 57% for biden, trump at 40%. we have seen some real outlier poles in the last few weeks, haven't we? tom: we have. they cut both ways again and again. it is a mystery of polling. i thought we were talking to david sowerby of michigan earlier this morning, and he said, who gets called for a poll?
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jonathan: not me. we talked about you getting called for a poll the other day. i would love to see that. jane foley of rep. banks:, senior fx of rabobank -- of rabobank, senior fx strategist, coming up on bloomberg. ♪ ♪ you can go your own way
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jonathan: from london and new york, good morning. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. 60 minutes from the opening baell. the gap lower in europe. down 51.00, more restrictions coming in europe. potentially a lockdown in france. look out for emmanuel macron later this evening. potentially a proposal from angela merkel on closing bars and restaurants for over a month. lower bymarket yields a basis point. let's take a quick look at where -- german ten-year is your where the german ten-year is. -63 basis points on a german shaving with the dax 421 of the equity benchmark and
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all 3.5% on the session. there is the stronger yen, there is the gold move. the story out of europe is a difficult one. tom: it is very difficult. as lisa mentioned, the spread narrowing. the difference between the -10 year and the larger negative two year yield. squeezing down to a flatter negative based yield curve in germany. jane foley knows this well with rabobank senior foreign-exchange strategist. she understands foreign-exchange not link to equity markets but linked to the bond market. jane foley, it is simple. there is something going on in germany, a single by those greater negative yields. what is it? jane: is a flight to quality. it is fear. we have data for the euro zone the end of the week and that will highlight more deflation. we did have prices for germany a
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little bit better, but it is the cpi number that will worry investors. it'll be interesting because we have the gdp data. that will look quite good, nearly 10% bounceback in q3, but the markets will disregard that. even though it has not been released it is old news. lockdownsout the new in the region, and that means it will be bad news for the fourth quarter. it does not look good from a european perspective. tom: export import dynamics important. in the united states, enhanced good trade balance. it is a pretty given -- it is a pretty grim negative number, not to where it was supposed to be, but another key data point. jane foley, when i look at this, and jonathan has mentioned the resiliency of the euro, how does the euro get a bid? jane: it does not if you're looking against the yen.
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it is pushing lower, even against the u.s. dollar, 1.1722. it was not long ago we were above 1.18. the euro is looking at the back foot. there was some anxiety going into the ecb meeting tomorrow and they could pull the trigger on policy measures tomorrow. our view is december and that is probably closer to consensus. there are rumblings giving the news in the back drop and the fear of the lockdown nationally in france and may be more restrictions in germany and the ecbe, that maybe president could pull the trigger. that is pushing the euro on the back foot today. jonathan: 1.1723. i've been surprised how resilient it has been until the last 24 hours given the direction of travel the continent was on. here is the break this morning. with a broader dollar bid. we have been looking at the
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italian bond market and we can all agree the jury is still out as to whether this has transformed from behaving like a credit to a sovereign. they are lower today, italian bonds are softer, yields are higher by five or six basis points. it is not dramatic, but the move is there, whether we can break the positive correlation between the single princi and the periphery. currencyn the single and the periphery. i think the move is starting to emerge, just slowly as the session grows older, might be making some people nervous. what is your take? jane: there are doubts emerging. we did have headlines suggesting protests in rome about the restrictions. if we look back over the spring in the summer about what drove the euro higher, there is more confidence about the ecb policy. ofwe go to the second dip the second wave in the double-dip of this recession, we
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have to ask about the recovery fund. is it big enough? it is not that big is the potential of gdp, but there also concerns, there is bickering about the timing, when will they get the funds, can italy, given its history of not being able to invest productively, can it use the loans it will get and turn them into a productive capacity rather than more debt? there are doubts beginning to emerge. if those restrictions take a toll on the economy and certainly in italy, those doubts can get bigger. jonathan: where is that recovery fund? that has not been ratified yet. you've talked about political difficulties. we have been keen to draw distinction between european economy struggling and redenomination risk. you think before year end, and i'm not saying we start to think about the breakup of europe, just that people start to conflate the issues, whether the periphery starts to trade
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weaker, can you see that scenario developing before you right now? -- we aren see starting from a strong position. if you look at the euro, at the amount of long positions built in the euro over the spring and the summer, really extensive. to put it in perspective, if we go back to 2017, 2017 is a goldilocks year for the euro. strong growth from the outset and we had better political outcomes. that was the year the market was fearful of the far right in the french presidential election, the dutch election. we had better outcomes. a good year for the euro. long positions building, and this spring and summer the market has become even more optimistic about the euro. i think there is the perception, the risk we could get more reality emerging and people lowering those long positions. lisa: at what point will central
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bank policy not have that big of an effect on currency differentials? it comes down to the economy. it seems like that is what we are seeing today given the ongoing restrictions we are hearing about in europe cured jane: -- in europe. jane: confidence is a lot of it. today we have seen confidence take a by the headlines. in may, pushing hard against talk of fragmentation by stepping up the types of bonds it will buy by making that message clear. it did help with the confidence in the notion of the euro moving forward. at the same time, the recovery fund, the notion they had taken a step forward to more of a fiscal comprehensiveness within the region. i think during q4, background of the economy, the worsening conditions will poke some holes
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in that confidence and that is why the euro is looking more vulnerable. the is independent of possibility that the dollar will be a bit more of a safe haven bid into q4 with similar concerns about covid-19 and the double-dip recession. jonathan: based -- lisa: based on positioning, the sense you giving there could be dollar strengthening, how violent could that be given how many short positions are on the dollar? jane: i do not think it could be as violent as anything we saw in march. the reasons are the huge amount of liquidity provisions the fed has put in place. we could see sharp movements. i think the movement we are seeing in euro-dollar today is reasonably sharp, and if we are looking for an exchange, we have seen sharp movements in turkey but also some of the emerging markets as well. i think we could certainly have sharp movers. i do not think we'll see
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anything like what we saw in march. tom: i look at all of this, and with futures negative, deteriorating on the session, i am watching yen with some resiliency. at some point i want to be opportunistic within this calamity. what is your trade? i do not say that lightly. what is your trade to create gain in this pain? now, io be honest, right would probably be in several of the emerging markets. i would like the dollar against many of those. interestingat is an one. we have come back sharply today, but we are still elevated compared to earlier in the year, even the summer months. i think we have a movement there. also i think we could see the aussie pushing down, perhaps lift there because there is this
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perception that asia and china are faring better in terms of recovery from coronavirus than we are in europe and the u.s. as well. jonathan: always fantastic to catch up with you. rabobank. of i want to turn to the markets. about 50 minutes from the opening bell. s&p 500 futures now just about at session lows, down 58 points, down 1.73%. the nasdaq off about 1.5%. it is starting to pick up those losses as we inched toward the opening bell. onlydollars strange, not the dxy but the bloomberg index great goldw em feel correlating beautifully. em, the: you mentioned ruble down in hard, off 1.8%. emerging market your proxy down
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1.6. is aand, the peso, it tough morning for this market. we are through the price action. beyond foreign-exchange i want to turn to the bond market. treasuries fell off. days,ast does go to three total unwind of that move come all the way back down to 80 basis points, around 0.75%. it is not just about poor government bonds. just the last couple of days -- it is not about core government bonds. 20 points unwinding on high. it is noticeable. lisa: is noticeable because there's so much faith in a fed backstop and now there's a question of whether they have really done all they can do to stave off further bankruptcies or other disruptions. jonathan: alongside lisa abramowicz and tom keene, i'm jonathan ferro. coming up around the opening shalett, morgan stanley wealth management cio. will dv shape get a test in the
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next -- will deep the shape -- will the v-shape get a test in the next quarter? with some risk aversion and stocks lower, this is bloomberg. ritika: i am ritika gupta. tropical storm zeta is expected to become a hurricane as it crosses the gulf of mexico. it is picking up steam after hitting the yucatan peninsula and is on course to make landfall in louisiana today. it'll be the fifth named storm to hit the state this year. the national hurricane center is warning of a life-threatening storm surge. coronavirus hospitalizations have risen at least 10% in the past week, in 32 states and washington, d.c. new mexico led the way with a 68% increase followed by wyoming in connecticut. south dakota, montana, north dakota have the most current patients per capita.
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the search is putting a strain on the u.s. health care system -- the surge is putting a strain on the u.s. health care system. in philadelphia demonstrators clashed with police following the shooting death of a man. police say the man had a knife and they shot him according to the philadelphia inquirer. pennsylvania's governor is deploying the national guard. the u.s. government is warning of north korea hacking group. according to the department of homeland security, the hackers have targeted the u.s., south korea, and japan, said to focus on foreign policy and national security issues related to the korean peninsula. j.p. morgan says is a prize wind by president trump could benefit u.s. stocks. the strategist say a trump victory but also hurt asian assets. joe biden is currently leading in the polls, but wall street firms have cautioned against assuming he will win the election. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries.
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i am ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> all of us have underestimated the dramatic impact of this outbreak. if you have asked most people eight or nine months ago if you would ever see the kind of
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impact we are seeing around the world right now, you would've gotten it right -- few would have gotten it right. alex gorsky of johnson & johnson out of west point. someone with an interesting executive career and in the crosshairs of this pandemic right now. , good conversation peer-to-peer conversation with david rubenstein on bloomberg television. he joins us this morning. what i find fascinating besides the predictable discussion of the pandemic is this is a guy who was at johnson & johnson and left and then he came back to johnson & johnson. that is an interesting move, isn't it. he did not see that often. -- you do not see that often. david: you do not see it where they rise up to ceo often. he started out at a relatively low level marketing job at a subsidiary of johnson & johnson, then left, then came back and
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rose up to the ceo position, which he has had for about eight years. he has done an incredible job. their market capitalization is about the 10th highest in the united states. lethargy, was a you've seen this across all market capitalization. there was a j&j lethargy and something changed. what was that? david: he diversified a fair bit. johnson &e would say johnson, don't they make band-aids or q-tips, but they are gigantic in so many areas of health care. many people do not realize they were in the vaccine business and now they are producing what may be one of the best vaccines for the covid virus. lisa: one thing this pandemic has thrown into relief is there is a conundrum for pharmaceutical companies whether to focus on developing the high cost, high return cancer drugs, other types of drugs that might not have the same sort of global benefit as a vaccine.
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did he addressed a shift in that mentality and how to compensate pharmaceutical companies going forward to focus in a different way? david: vaccines are not the most profitable part of the pharmaceutical business because you take them once a year and it is not the kind of repeat is this where you take them once a week or once a month. there are a limited number of companies they do specialize in but it is not the main thing they do. johnson & johnson does do vaccines but it is not their main business. the u.s. government is subsidizing so many companies they will not lose money, they will do ok, but it is the public relations benefit of coming up with a vaccine that will be so helpful. lisa: there is also the question of getting the maxine -- the vaccine manufactured and distributed. what do you say about supply chain issues, how to manufacture this in the most expeditious way possible? david: the u.s. government has done something no one has ever done before.
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typically a vaccine takes around seven years to develop. the past -- the fastest have been four years. this is being done in one year. this is being done because so many companies are getting so much money from the federal government, but they're manufacturing the vaccine before they know whether the fda will approve it. that has never been done. once the fda approves one of the vaccines, they are ready to be distributed. the issue is who will get it and who will take them? a lot of people are nervous about taking them because either they are not safe or they've been fine tuned to make them available before they should be. it'll be a while before people take these. most experts say not until the third or fourth quarter of next year will you see people fully vaccinated. tom: you told us the last time we visited you are not taking sides in this presidential campaign and you were trying to stay removed. what you expect to see in the next six days? will this be a traditional
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dash to tuesday or whorl it -- or will it be something different? david: traditionally people vote on election day, now maybe 70% have already voted. that is a big difference. elections tend to tighten. the country is relatively evenly split, not completely, but i think you will see some people come home to their base and i expect it will tighten up, which is what you normally see right before the election. tom: david rubenstein, thank you so much for joining us. a conversation with the gentleman from johnson & johnson, alex gorsky. look for that tonight at 9:00. peer-to-peer conversations with mr. rubenstein. we have to get lisa to the markets. we welcome all of you on bloomberg radio and television to a distressing early-morning. futures at -65. all you need to see is the x out toent of the vi
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37.92. i look at full faith and credit, stable, but nevertheless yields in two basis points. what you see in the rest of fixed income? lisa: to pick up on what you mentioned with bonds, you are seeing a bid into treasuries but is not that great and there is a much bigger move in the dollar strengthening. a lot of major currencies strengthening. we are getting jitters and yet once again, a lot of people saying the dollar would lose its status as the main currency of the world, it is the haven currency. you are seeing in credit default swaps, risk off the you see in s&p and nasdaq futures. tom: while lisa talks i'm trying to do the mathematics on the bloomberg terminal. we can do that easily if i can get it set up correctly. i am doing this off the down just upset jonathan ferro. you know he hates the dow. dow. a 10% on the
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i am a 26,100 on the dow. , sixe 600 or 700 points hundred points from a correction on the dow. did that do enough to upset jonathan ferro? lisa: i think he is sufficiently ruffled. this is the week in which we start to see a different narrative take shape. until now, and the weeks coming up to this one, the narrative was it does not matter what happens, there will be a blue wave and there will be a huge fiscal package in the first quarter of next year. that narrative is shifting. people are seeing what is going on in europe, they are seeing renewed shutdowns in germany, possibility in france, and the possibility that could happen in the united states. they are getting nervous. jonathan: this is -- tom: this is a decisive shift in important for global wall street. -- did not perform my 6:00 script in the united states, remove it. hows significantly
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stronger swiss franc. i can tell you where that broke, about 5:30 new york time we saw the swiss franc break. yen has not come in as well. gold and oil. andlook at the proxy of oil global aggregate demand. it is just not there. lisa: there was a theory that china and the increase in demand from there helped stabilize what we have seen, but you look at mobility measures, it is not there. in the united states, increased quarantines, increased restrictions on interstate mobility. the idea you are not seeing an increase in flights. you track that from your window and you have science to back it up. day,a nice tweet the other the seven day average of plane flights in the country is pretty grim. you saw that in the boeing presentation, a cash burn today.
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speaking of cash burn, always a smart conversation. cannot say enough about the clarity of the ge press release. david westin, balance of power, with lawrence called of general electric -- with lawrence culp of general electric. stay with us through the morning. ♪
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♪ jonathan: from london and new
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york, for our audience worldwide, good morning, good morning. the countdown to the open starts right now. we are down and down hard on the s&p 500. we begin with the big issue. you are for more lockdowns. -- europe bracing for more lockdowns. angela merkel proposing to close bars and restaurants until the end of november. emmanuel macron reportedly preparing a one month lockdown as soon as the end of this week. maria tadeo joins us from brussels. it is the story of the morning in europe. a proposal to close bars and restaurants in germany, in france may be a one month lockdown. what are you hearing? maria: it reflects the numbers we have seen over the past two days and highlights that the situation has become serious and shows governments have lost control of the infection rate. nothing is official for the time being and it will not be until the french president decides to make it official. we understand


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