tv Bloomberg Markets Americas Bloomberg December 8, 2020 1:00pm-2:00pm EST
downplaying reports that it passed up the chance to secure more of pfizer's shot. the government signed a deal to obtain 100 million doses, enough for 50 million people. the u.s. also has agreements in astrazeneca,derna, johnson & johnson, and others. but only those made by pfizer and moderna are likely to be cleared by the fda this month. a 90-year-old woman was the first in line today with u.k. became the first country in the west to offer coronavirus vaccinations. the national health service calls it its biggest immunization campaign ever. prime minister johnson mourns that mass vaccination will take time. talks on a $908 billion pandemic relief plan into new on capitol hill today. republican congressional leaders are meeting with secretary steven mnuchin and mark meadows about covid-19 relief. negotiators are trying to
release -- believed differences between state and local aid and liability protection for businesses. nancy pelosi and the senate haveratic leaders negotiations. cybersecurity official fired by president trump has called the 2020 election the most secure in history is suing. first for krebs is a key whizzing trump lawyers for inflicting emotional distress. in an appearance on november 30, he said krebs should be taken out at dawn and shot. krebs is asking for monetary damages and for the interview to be removed from the newsmax archives. global news 24 hours a day, on-air, and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i'm mark crumpton. this is bloomberg.
vonnie: it is 1:00 p.m. in new york, 6:00 p.m. in london, and 2:00 a.m. in hong kong. i'm vonnie quinn. welcome to bloomberg markets. here are the top stories we are following on the bloomberg and from around the world. good news on the vaccine front. the fda says pfizer's covid-19 vaccine is safe and effective after one dose. astrazeneca's vaccine developed by the university of oxford shows 70% effectiveness in stopping the illness. it is better at stopping it then slowing its transmission. a light at the end of the tunnel. farmers are almost three times as austenitic than in the summer -- optimistic than in the summer but we will talk about challenges still facing the industry with john boyd, president of the national black farmers association.
one of wall street's more accurate forecasters, ed hyman joins us to discuss his economic outlook and his christmas tree survey. let's take a quick check out the markets. treasury yields falling back down a bit. the ten-year at 90 basis points. not much movement in markets although we are seeing homebuilders drop. the s&p 500 up a quarter percent. the dollar index continuing with weakness as we hear brexit talks will continue tomorrow. crude oil back below $46 a barrel. the clock running down for more federally before year end, even as we see hunger spike across the country. u.s. farm profits in aggregate are at a seven-year hi, and thing up production to meet china demand and receiving federal aid, but some farming groups are facing a tougher bargain. let's bring in the president of the national black farmers association, john boyd.
survey finding that farmers are three times as optimistic than they were in august. is this across the farming spectrum, and how does it relate in general to how optimistic farmers tend to be? john: i believe it is. farmers have really suffer the past four years, have been looking for a breath of fresh air with the biden administration. we are really excited about the next four years. i am hopeful that all of the farmers that are listening will give this administration a chance. we have had an uphill battle with the china trade war, the lowest prices in decades, and we need to turn this thing around and give this new administration a chance to come in and go to work and help make agriculture the way it needs to be, to help
farmers. that is all farmers, small farmers, minority farmers, large-scale farmers, we all need a change. should how president-elect biden be thinking of an egg or culture pick? we have reported that he may be looking at vilsack closely. would he represent verbal farmers -- rural farmers? john: we had a tough time with sec. bill psych in the obama years. to take aad a chance look at agriculture and would like to do some things differently that he did not do before. i still think we need a new force in agriculture that will work with all farmers, farmers of color, large scale farmers, women farmers, hispanic, native american, women farmers. we need an agriculture secretary that wants to do that. what agriculture is missing
right now is small scale farmers. we have not been receiving the usda.ts through there is not a real focus under this administration to help farmers like me. i am excited but still hopeful that the biden administration will tap an agriculture secretary that wants to bring about these changes that i've been talking about for such a long time. vonnie: representative marcia fudge has the support of the congressional black caucus. would she be somebody that you could get behind? what kinds of issues do you think she would tackle as priorities? john: i spoke to congresswoman fudge about two weeks ago about coming to the agriculture department. she was interested, i think she would be sensitive to all farmers, especially farmers of color. if she came to the agricultural department, i would certainly
support her, lend all of my insight and expertise about small-scale farmers, minority farmers. i would bring all of that information to the table and work with her. vonnie: what are the most immediate issues facing black farmers? typically smaller farmers, not the typical massive ranchers that we see in the midwest, more western states. by small, they are still relatively large -- you yourself farm, so smalle is not exactly tiny. john: what we need right now is access to credit. access to programs. i was talking with the biden transition team this past and i encourage them to reopen the agricultural department to small-scale farmers. withmeans doing deals
small farmers, doing rural development. all of these agencies have been closed for business with the national black farmers association. we had only one meeting with sonny perdue. we want that to change. we want the banks to open up their purse strings lend money to black farmers, other small-scale farmers. we want companies like john deere, who have really treated us poorly -- i have reached out to the new ceo to get a meeting. the third largest agricultural lender in the united states not extending credit to black farmers like myself. a good credit score but i cannot get credit with john deere. companies like that need to come to the table and work with america's law scale farmers, black farmers, farmers of color, to make sure we are a part of the american factory. if we want this country to turn around, it has to include
agriculture, food, we have to have the ability to feed ourselves. vonnie: what is john deere's argument? it is not all farmers, i presume. john: they extend credit to a lot of white farmers. i have been inviting john deere to an annual conference, and they have never showed up in 32 years to display a piece of equipment to show how it works or to bring new technology to black farmers. this is not something new. equipment.ess to if you have a tractor over 2010, you cannot work on it without the service technician coming out. i am told that in my area, they have to go to other farmers before they come to mind. anybody that knows anything about farming, you need service. during planting and harvest time, you cannot wait for john deere to say i'm going to service the white farmers and
not you until last. these are things that have to change in this country. when you hear people say there is no discrimination, there is no racism, we have to look at america and bring america back together again. right now we are divided at the hip, by race in this country. vonnie: we will look for comment from john deere on this. gillibrand, kirsten and others have introduced a bill, dealing with the inequities faced by black farmers. what are the most critical provisions in the bill that you are supporting? john: i am glad to work with senator booker who is a good friend of mine. i am really interested in the land-based initiatives of the bill, preserving land that the black farmers have right now. at the turn-of-the-century, we were one million black farmers in this country, and now we are less than 50,000.
we owned 20 million acres of land, now down to roughly 4.5 million acres. the land piece of that bill that i worked on with the senators on is very important to me. measure inination the bill is very important to me. i am working diligently right now to come up with a companion bill in the house. we are also watching the georgia race. that will be significant in moving bills like this. i don't think senator mitch mcconnell will have any interest in moving a bill that would help lack farmers in this country. tom rocking the senate races hope that that turns around. i want to ask, before we go, if the changing nature of the u.s.-china trade relations have helped farmers like yourself, and if you are seeing a little bit more success year ofyear, selling the products
your harvest because of the china deal? john: we saw a little bit of a peak but now the prices are beginning to dip again. that is something that i believe a strong agriculture department can bring. a strong stock market means increased prices per bushel for farmers across the board. for the last four years, farmers have been hurting. farm foreclosures, bankruptcies have been up. land laws have been up for all farmers. the only way to do that is to have a leader in agriculture saying we need to turn things around in america, for america's farmers. we need to be treated first instead of last. people look at farmers on the bad side of this country, and we need to stop doing that. farmers feed us. at least three times a day you have to think of farmers, breakfast, lunch, and dinner. we need the support of the american people and we need to
work with farmers around the country, especially farmers of color. we want to stay on the land and make sure that we can pass on to the next generation of farmers. vonnie: one final question. cattle,ously have beef where do you sell them now? are markets online? john: i am selling to a local market. what most americans don't understand, when restaurants are closed, it is difficult for farmers that have relationships with restaurants, those types of private contracts. i am pretty much a commercial farmer where i sell corn, wheat, soy to local elevators, but many specialty farmers are hurting because restaurants are closed, more people are at home. surviveto find a way to
during this pandemic. that has been the uphill battle, and there has been an absence from this administration. have told farmers to destroy crops to enroll in these programs. instead, they could have given away that food to hungry and needy people. covid closed a lot of markets. i never saw my local livestock market close, which it did at one time. these are challenging times. covid has changed a way that we do business, the way that we farmers have to adopt -- adapt to that. the only way we can do that is to have the right leadership, have a president who will want to make this a priority. vonnie: thank you and best of luck through the rest of the year, john boyd, national black farmers association president. coming up, we will be speaking with the chairman of harrison
vonnie: real estate investment firm harrison street this year closed on $7 billion in capital and raised 1.5 billion dollars for strategic opportunities in the pandemic. joining us now again is chris merrill, chairman and ceo. welcome back. you have been buying through the pandemic. i'm curious as to what kind of real estate you are buying. you have been in everything from student housing to senior living facilities. what are you adding to your portfolio, what kind of pandemic discounts are you looking at? chris: thank you for having me back again, nice to be here. i wish i was in the studio.
had a very interesting year. one that has been rewarding for us. when we started harrison street, the focus was on demographic, need-based assets. we have seen the resilience of these asset classes the past seven months. that has given us the excitement of continuing to invest. we have been active in senior housing, student housing. we have also been active in the life science mix, active in the u.s. and the u.k. we are investing in self storage. also in renewable energy. very consistent with our theme of finding acids that we think are resilient, demand-driven. it's been a terrific environment. vonnie: was it a buyers market up until now? chris: there is opaqueness might now, so a lot of people have hit the pause button. many investors may dealing with
traditional real estate office, hotels, etc., have hit the pause button. for us, there is an opportunity for us to focus on high-quality partners in fantastic locations. we have continued to invest in opportunities where maybe capital partners have fallen away. the pricing has been excellent, but we think long-term about it. 100, 200 basis points better yield in these asset classes, this is now the second black swan event we have been through in our-year history, and they have held up. we are positive about things. vonnie: student housing -- you have a huge amount of knowledge there. we know a good percentage of universities may not survive this. where are you targeting your new acquisitions? at 170we have been different universities, the largest investor in off-campus space. we are focused on enrollment
changes. about 5% ofy, thi schools will fail. it is sad, but some universities will be the benefit of that for us, it is focusing on those schools that are enrollment takers, where we see strong demand in campus housing, even those schools that have gone online. students want to be back in the college environment versus being in their parents basement. we are seeing strong demand in our off-campus housing at those schools. for us, we can continue to do the long term. online really didn't work. what we are seeing is that the college experience doesn't go away. we are continue to be pleased with the data coming out of our portfolio. vonnie: are you confident that those properties, along with the assisted living properties that you have can keep rent and fees
as high as pre-pandemic, or will they have to come down? chris: health care is a big part of our business, about 70% of our activity in senior housing, life sciences. what this has caused is really a choking off of supply. but the demographics are not changing. the aging population is not changing. what we see in our seeming -- senior housing properties, this is a very safe asset. we are seeing very low numbers of people with issues of covid coming out of the senior housing facilities, so we are seeing a lot of people wanted to move into these properties. for us, the occupancy has held up during this time. wave, with the demographic behind us, choking off the supply, we will think growth in these asset classes. more institutional investors
will want to invest in these asset classes. that will drive cap rates lower. vonnie: how much of the capital that you have raised have you already deployed, how long will you wait to deploy the rest? chris: we are consistent across sectors this year. we have deployed about $8 billion. we have also sold about $1.8 billion of real estate this year. isn in this pandemic, there still liquidity in the space. on average, we have been consistent in how we deployed capital, we have dry powder. we will continue to deploy where we see the right opportunities. we invested $36 billion in these asset classes, so it has to make sense for us. but having the dry powder there is a great opportunity for the firm. vonnie: thank you, chris merrill, harrison street chairman and ceo. this is bloomberg. ♪
vonnie: time for our stock of the hour. kailey leinz has more. the third best performer in the s&p 500 today, the best performer on the index on the year with a 270% rally, up 450% since it went public in 2017. nse bulk of the games -- gai came in 2020. btig analysts raising the price target on the stock to $174 a share from $106. run ahead ofady the average price target. it is trading around 106 e4 dollars a share today. the rally has come because they are a big beneficiary of the stay-at-home world with more people shopping online. and 128% in 130% the second and third quarters
respectively. nearly 90% growth in this holiday quarter. that is what btig is seeing here with his price target raise. the say not only in short-term but longer-term as is integratingsy itself in shoppers habits. also, they don't face a lot of competition and will retain market share and pricing power. not only is it a stay-at-home winner but a winner in the longer-term as well. vonnie: thank you, kailey leinz. coming up, what christmas tree sales can tell us about the state of the pandemic economy. ed hyman is next from evercore isi. this is bloomberg. ♪
georgia, michigan, pennsylvania, and wisconsin. swing statesg the of exploding the coronavirus pandemic to sidestep federal and state election laws and pass last-minute changes to mail-in voting. the coronavirus pandemic is making hunger a reality or more americans. illness, job losses, and business closures have forced millions more americans to worry about putting food on the table. nation'smerica, the largest antihunger organization, says it has never handed out so much food so fast. to billion meals from march october. the organization says four out of 10 are turned into food banks for the first time. hong kong is implementing some of its strictest social distancing measures since the pandemic began. the city is cutting off in person dining at restaurants at six clock p.m. and closing gems and beauty salons. hong kong is struggling to
contain its latest wave of covid-19 infections with case numbers at their highest levels since august. the chief executive warns that more restrictions are likely. iran says it will continue to back syria. during a meeting with the syrian foreign minister, the iranian president urged damascus to confront israel in the occupied golan heights. key ally ofn a syrian president bashar al-assad is the beginning of the syrian civil war. iran does not recognize israel and supports anti-israel militant groups. global news 24 hours a day, on-air, and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i'm mark crumpton. this is bloomberg.
amanda: live from toronto, i'm amanda lang. welcome to bloomberg markets. i'm vonnie quinn in new york. vonnie: we are joined by our bloomberg and bnn bloomberg audiences. here are the top stories we are following from around the world. . he brings with him his special economic christmas tree indicator. then we will speak with the brunswick ceo about the booming amid thisf boating k-shaped recovery. and the latest on vaccines. u.k. against delivering the vaccine as early indication from u.s. regulators is they may grant emergency use authorization here in the u.s. this week. in on markets,g positive news on the vaccine
continues to have an influence here. rotation with a energy leading the way across the broad market. the s&p bouncing up as the session goes on but not massive moves. energy was the weak spot for these markets on both sides of the border yesterday. today it is climbing as a group, as we see the price of oil still softening. west texas down slightly. health care is a stalwart. up 4% onse, pfizer is the day, good news as well for astrazeneca. the optimism continues around vaccines. much will depend on the path of economic data as it unfolds. despite a fiscal stimulus, how will america fare? we are pleased to have with us ed hyman of evercore isi, an accurate predictor of the future. with that in mind, i will say that you are relatively bullish on the u.s. economy. ed: thank.
active predictor is a low bar for anyone forecasting. years, we have been surveying people in the christmas tree industry, the people that pluck them and sell them. that survey was up 29% last week. i was blown away. this week, it is up 30%. economy in the fourth quarter is doing much better than i expected. we do a trucking survey, the same idea, but for trucking companies. that is very strong, 68 this week. of pmi people do a survey employment, and that was a record high in november. the data is coming in very strong, stronger than i expected. we have the strongest forecast on the street, i think. vonnie: to what do you attribute the strength?
unemployment was in the multimillions for so long. ed: it is difficult to know, and i don't want to overdo it, because there is still so much pain in the economy. unemployment is still almost 7%. but there has been huge stimulus in the system, and that has led to big increases in house prices, stock prices, consumer net worth. red the economy, and historically, that has been a major driver. those are the things that are pushing the economy up in unexpected ways. i should add one other thing. this time, we know what we are dealing with on the virus. nine months ago, it was a complete mystery. ebola?the spanish flu, now we have a better idea of what it is and we have vaccines coming. amanda: i want to drill into
your evercore company surveys. they do show an increase, massive bounce off the bottom. but as you know, they have stalled a little bit, consistent with slower gdp growth than what you are forecasting. what do you think is happening here? ed: i am not sure. this life is like a mosaic, and you have to take all the pieces into account. right now, the surveys, which are my main go-to, are persistent with 4% growth. --of indicators are stronger plenty of indicators are stronger. in our surveys, like with the truckers. but things are being held back with real disasters in things like airlines. our airline survey this week was 17. truckers, 68. i am just trying to see if i
need to lower my forecast or give it time to catch up. think, therefore, the economy does not need more stimulus, support? what is your position on that? ed: it needs more stimulus. the economy is very bifurcated. if you work for an airline, cruise ship, involved in the sporting business, any of those businesses, restaurants, it is really tragic. unacceptable to not have a fiscal package to help those folks bridge through until we get a vaccine. the vaccine is coming, but i still think it would be a good idea to have fiscal stimulus. i think one is coming, but it has certainly been difficult to have. say, a vaccine also coming. when and how it permeates the
economy is the big unknown. how do you factor that into your thinking on your outlook? ed: very clearly. the economy is still stuck down in a lot of places, like airlines, casinos, hotels. maybe only 10%, 20%. but they are still very much shut down. when we get a vaccine, they will open up. i think the economy will have a similar to what it did in the third quarter of this year with 30% growth. it is almost mechanical. you shut it down, things collapse. at some point, in the second, third quarter, you open up, and those areas i mentioned like airlines to combat, -- come back, and all of the places associated with them, like the restaurants in the airport, will come back, and you'll have a
bounce in the economy. now is the data right showing massive sales of christmas trees, as you point out, but people are also moving out of urban centers, buying houses, and there could be other structural reasons why the christmas tree survey, for example, is strong. do you see long-term problems whoseecific people situation is way worse than before the pandemic? how do those people get through this? you needthat is why fiscal stimulus, directed at those people having trouble. on the housing part, i think our christmas tree survey is a reflection of nesting. people are not traveling, putting more into their homes, making sure they want to have a great holiday season with a big tree. the focus onof housing, which is multifaceted,
from house sales, improvements, it ist home depot, and all sort of the same thing, so i should not get too much excited about it, but it is a space that is pretty good. some spaces that are small business are doing well, like the christmas tree survey. this one ishem, doing pretty well. anything associated with real estate, real estate agents, lawyers, whatever, are doing well. amanda: i want to ask you about the baa spread. normalizing after shooting higher after all of this began. how optimistic does that make you feel? besthe baa spread is my coach. it is the best economic
indicator for the next three months. when we had the cases nine months ago, it exploded on the upside. now to my astonishment, because cases are now going up so much, it is improving. it suggests the economy will get through this, and this time it will not be as bad as last time . we know what it is, we have a vaccine coming. also, china is ahead of us, so we can learn from them. people are more relaxed. the baa spread is improving. vonnie: always a pleasure to speak with you, ed hyman, evercore isi chairman. coming up, some say they were able to stay afloat during this pandemic. it may be because they were putting their money into the boating industry. we will speak to the ceo of the brunswick corporation about that. this is bloomberg. ♪
vonnie: this is bloomberg markets. i'm vonnie quinn in new york. theite the global pandemic, boating industry has not only stayed afloat but the ride with a surge in retail sales. one of the companies riding the wave is the brunswick corporation, who posted a 26% rise in sales. the ceo, david foulkes, joins us now. what kind of price was the most popular in your array of boats? coming inhad people from across the portfolio. we makehe boats that are less than $50,000, so we offer a lot of good entry point into the market.
what was surprising, we got a lot of new orders in, but across the portfolio of our boats. amanda: we know there has been a beneficiaries, and brunswick was one of them. did you expect that to happen? david: it did catch us offguard. we had some great business fundamentals even before the pandemic. our stock was trading in the mid 60's. certainly, as people realize they needed to look for leisure options that were consistent with social distancing, it did catch us by surprise. by the end of april, we saw huge increases in retail demand and through the balance of late q3, and the second half of the year. retail has been up 30% to 40% across our businesses. even though this is kind of the off-season in the northern markets, we are still seeing that 30% to 40% up. a lot of leading indicators for
next year like retail and financing applications are up this year. compared to last year. vonnie: what about supply chain issues? seen them in everything from pc sales to the obvious, ppe. you wouldn't expect it with something that is not used as often, but did you see it for parts for your boats? david: not at a level that has been a hindrance to us. we have been dealing closely with our supply chain, monitoring supply across our various facilities, but we have not experienced anything that held us back. we are a really vertically integrated company, we produce a lot of our propulsion and electronic systems, so really vertically integrated across the boat. we control a lot more of our supply chain than others do, so
that has helped us. nothing hindering us going forward. obviously, we are dealing with some absenteeism related to covid, but operationally, we are performing well. you are still below the high watermark of your 2018 sales, although we should note, commendably, your earnings did not fall in line. you did something on the efficiency side the last few years. david: we took out a lot of structural costs, which we have done over the last several years. affected our wholesale production, so we have been producing under retail for most of this year. cap has been a 10,000-unit between what retailers demanded and what sale production has been. so we are trying to rebuild the pleated pipelines. even in a case next year where the market is only slightly up, we will still have to produce 30% to 40% more boats and
engines to keep pace with retail. vonnie: what about everything that goes with buying a boat? did you see a lot more interest piers? example, docking, how do you manage that for your clients, can you? david: that is the role of our channel partners. we saw a lot of increase in demand for a lot of things that were associated with boat utilization. we have a huge accessories and distribution business, in fact, the largest in the world. demand was very high. demand in that business depends more on how people are using on new sales.han we certainly saw a high level of demand there. we have another new business, freedom boat club, which is a shared access model. we acquired it last year and
it's been growing strongly. that gives people a way to participate without buying a boat. when we bought freedom boat club last year, there were 150 locations. we just opened up our 250th location last week, so we are opening up about one location a week. a lot of ways to participate. it's been very popular across the board. amanda: great to have you with us, an interesting snapshot of the economy here. david foulkes, ceo of the brunswick corporation. according to data from johns hopkins, u.s. cases of covid-19 half past 15 million. we will have a live report on the state of the vaccine and some decent news coming out of the fda, next. this is bloomberg. ♪
just learnedwe there are more than 15 million cases of covid-19, even as the case counts continued to rise, the news on the vaccine front is good. the fda just reaffirmed in its use review the- effectiveness of the pfizer and biontech vaccine. i understand the next step is this external panel of scientists that will review. is there any expectation that it can go contrary to what the fda said? is that just pro forma at this stage, given the good news on this vaccine? >> it does feel pro forma. there was a lot of good news, and the fda report that came out pfizer andrmed what biontech have been saying about the date on the vaccine. it is very likely things could go quickly. the panel will meet all day tomorrow, have their discussion.
if things still look good as expected, the fda can do an authorization pretty fast. in fact, there is an event where president-elect joe biden and vice president-elect kamala harris will introduce key health team nominees. we know already that the president-elect said he would mandate mask wearing, recommend a period of mask wearing. if somebody gets vaccinated, do they still new to wear a mask? anna: that is a really key point that will need to be talked about a lot, once people are getting these vaccines. prevent people from getting really severe symptoms of covid-19. what we do not know yet, what we cannot gather yet from the data, is whether it prevents transmissions. a vaccine may not exactly stop the spread of covid-19.
somebody could have covid-19 and not have any symptoms and not know it and still spread it, even if they got a vaccine. mask wearing, social distancing will still be really key steps that people need to take. amanda: we also had decent news in the form of that lancet article on the oxford, astrazeneca vaccine. how important is that step? for apeople were looking lot more information on the astrazeneca data. there was a lot of confusion when it came out because a half dose of the two-dose regimen actually worked better, so people are happy to see more data on it. it looks like there will still new to be a u.s. trial completed. that will take some time into until we can understand how well it will work.
that will probably take until january or february. vonnie: thank you very much. it might not be long now. edney covering all the vaccine news for us. on the screen, you are seeing an event that will take place for the president-elect and vice president-elect, nominating key members of their health team. for myself in new york and amanda lang in toronto, this is bloomberg. ♪ . . .
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