tv Bloomberg Surveillance Bloomberg December 28, 2020 7:00am-8:00am EST
♪ federal banks are -- "central banks no sign -- central are showing no signs they want to stop. >> it will be v-shaped for some. it may not be v-shaped for others. >> next year is going to be too hot. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. >> from new york city and berlin , for audiences worldwide, a very good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance ," live on bloomberg tv and bloomberg radio. i'm carol massar, alongside matt miller. jon ferro, tom keene, and lisa
abramowicz getting a rest because it's been a long year. the batteries for 2021. here in germany, we just started vaccinating people yesterday. the health minister does say they want to accelerate that possiblybut being the most bureaucratic country in the world, it is probably going to take a lot of time. even in countries that have started earlier like the u.s. and the u.k., i don't think experts expect the benefits to come until the early spring, so i think vaccinations are key, but right now, global markets are focused on what is going on in washington. donald trump finally signing that stimulus bill, and that is really the impetus for the risk on feeling that has rotated around the world in equities. carol: more than 4.4 million vaccines have been given, but many of the issues we have him dealing with the last couple of
months, really all of 2020, --tinue to carry into 20 11 into 2021. there is optimism around the world. we will see how long that lasts. take a look at s&p 500 futures, 0.75%. about taking a look at the 10 year, you can see a little bit of movement as well. new york crude up about 1%, $48.68 a barrel. our big main story, and it was really fascinating this last week to watch this process, to see expectation that the stimulus program would go through, and then to have donald trump play stop on it, and then late last night actually getting it through. matt: looks like things are falling into place with the vaccine starting to roll out, then you have the brexit deal, then trump finally signing that bill. at least here in germany, we are
index.cord high, the dax only up 3% compared to the s&p's 15%, but if you are a dollar investor in german stocks, you are up about 15%. let's talk more about that political issue in washington that drives markets. kevin cirilli, bloomberg chief washington correspondent, joins us to discuss. my main question is why did trump sign the bill late? as i understand it, some damage may already have been done for unemployed americans, and nothing really changed in the bill. kevin: there was immediate confusion at the end of last week, and now immediately ready in terms of a market perspective , and terms of an unemployment perspective. there was rumors that the president could deploy what is known as a pocket veto, which
would have left lawmakers and leadership on both sides of the aisle scrambling to find some path forward. all of that now yesterday's news because with president trump signing the stimulus into law, it allows him to say from a political record standpoint that he had advocated for additional funds, but secondly, that there was not that type of confusion from an economic perspective. candidly, that is lawmakers i talked with last week were very much concerned about, that the clock on the senate and house floor would eventually expire, and the window for a path forward would ultimately close. matt: i know larry summers wrote an opinion piece for us on bloomberg, saying that $2000 is just too much, and a lot of americans definitely have money in the bank. but there are many other americans who are out of work, who can't afford to pay their monthly food bills, and hopefully don't have to worry
about rent with the eviction clause in this bill. they would love to see to see $2000 checks. it is interesting that donald trump, a republican president, and nancy pelosi, a democrat running congress, have in a sense banded together to get these $2000 stimulus checks. bases trump's republican which has normally done anything he wants and been loath to criticize him, stopping this, holding up these $2000 checks? kevin: this is a perfect illustration of the dynamics within the republican party right now. outside of washington, and terms of where the ideological debate is headed, the direction is moving for 2022 and even 2024, it is about government spending. when you have a $27 trillion national debt, this is the conversation i hear frequently amongst republican lawmakers. more suburban republicans are arguing that these type of
stimulus checks are needed now. more moderate leaning republicans towards the center are arguing that more stimulus, as has been advocated by fed chair jay powell, are needed. but there's that other conservative wing of the party saying that policymakers can't afford to put taxpayers on the hook for that type of debate. in terms of where things move forward, if your president-elect biden, if you are trying to kick off votes for another round of stimulus and trying to garner the support of mitt romney, susan collins, and others republicans who have shown a willingness to negotiate with democrats, you now have an opportunity to say, look, even former president donald trump was advocating for more stimulus in the final days of his presidency. carol: kevin, i want to bring it back to larry summers.
that really created a whole twitter storm. his concerns were that family incomes are not down. he's concerned about an overheating of the economy. i think this speaks to the stimulus -- not stimulus, the release package congress has just written up. does it really hit the targeted audiences it needs to? we talked about the k-shaped recovery. a lot of people have not felt the economic impact of covid. there are those who feel it disproportionately. is this a package that actually gets to those people and small businesses that needed the most? kevin: that is such a great point. what they have told me in the last couple of weeks is they have really tried to take a more targeted approach in terms of the finances going to main street and small businesses. this is one of the criticisms that the previous round of economic relief has garnered, was that there was not enough direct access to some of the relief for small and medium-sized companies, and there was too much confusion. but i've got to be candid here.
in terms of the ideological debate that is going to happen in the next two years here in washington, d.c., look no further than how the funds for the federal reserve, how that was debated in the final days of negotiating this relief. you've got various different contingencies now that are all coming at this from different perspectives. the question for president-elect biden, and terms of whether or not he can garner another economic really package in his first 100 days, will be whether or not he can pick apart enough republicans to get support in the senate. candidly, we just don't have that clarity. we won't know until january 5 just how many republicans he is going to be able to need. matt: i've got to ask about the social media issue. donald trump and some republicans want to strip these giant social media platforms of some protections, and democrats
seem to be fighting that. why would democrats want to protect these huge corporations that some would say help republicans win the last election? kevin: quite honestly, both republicans and democrats have been arguing for the past several years for additional regulations placed on silicon valley, albeit, as you just alluded to, they are coming from different perspectives. you've got democrats, including senators elizabeth warren and other progressives, who are arguing that big tech companies have become much too big. then you've got republicans led by the likes of senator marsha blackburn and tom cotton who have been arguing that section 230 is outdated at best and needs to be reworked at least. so the president has been incredibly vocal about his disdain for section 230, but either way, this is a much different ocean to an regulatory
landscape, and different regulatory forecast than what silicon valley had really existed in prior to 2016. this is still the post 2016 climate, and if you look back and look forward, 2016 was a clear delineation point in terms of the regulatory forecast for big tech companies. fitting that in the global issue is also going to be interesting. carol: just got about 60 seconds here. that $2000, can we expect any movement vote for -- movement before a biden adminstration? kevin: if the checks that had originally been offered to go out, they will be going out as early as the end of this week and beginning of next week, the administration and government be accuracy's already have a -- government bureaucracy already have a path forward for how to disseminate those checks. but the clock has run out, so we
will have to wait and see. carol: kevin cirilli, bloomberg news, host of bloomberg's "sound on" in washington, d.c. we have been talking about the second round of a relief package since the summer. good to see some movement, but it does sound like we may not have enough. matt: that's right, and maybe a little too late for some because these unemployment checks come lasty, and this week and may have been missed out for millions of americans. coming up later in this hour, kit juckes, socgen's chief fx strategist joins us. great day to talk about an outlook for the greenback in 2021. consensus says the dollar will continue to fall. it's great for u.s. exports, but it is a problem for us here in europe in terms of selling
things and trying to get inflation on the rise. this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. president trump has signed a bill containing $900 billion in pandemic relief, backing down from demands that lawmakers change the bill before he sign it. the legislation includes funding for federal agencies through the end of the fiscal year in september. the government has been operating on temporary spending authority that expires after the end of today. european union countries have begun fax it in against covid-19 as numbers of the 27 nation bloc struggle with a rising vestal from the virus -- rising death toll from the virus. this is less than a week than the eu cleared a shot from pfizer and biontech. federal officials have identified the men believed to be behind nashville's christmas day bombing, they have turned to
the task of figuring out the motive behind the explosion. the blast injured three people and severely damaged dozens of downtown buildings. the suspected bomber, 63-year-old anthony warner, was killed in the explosion. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪
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will be remembered for chaos and misery and erratic behavior if he allows this to expire. so i think the best thing to do is sign this and then make the case for subsequent legislation. carol: that was senator pat toomey, republican from the state of pennsylvania, speaking over the weekend on fox news sunday. as we know, president trump did sign that relief bill last night. as a result, we are seeing risk trade on around the world, particularly in the european markets. we are also seeing it when it comes to u.s. equity futures. abouttures just jumped 0.6%. and bitcoin, which we will talk about a little later on, keep an eye on it. it was breaking record after record, and you see bitcoin up another 10%, continuing to move.
matt: do you remember --? carol: yes, when you bought bitcoin to buy a christmas tree, didn't you? matt: no, i bought bitcoin to live on for a couple of weeks. i spent nothing but bitcoin for two weeks back in 2012. i started out buying them for about $800. then i bought some for $600. meemember joe making fun of when they dropped $235. to $235.d boy, do i wish i loaded up. carol: where are they now? guy: to be honest with you, i left a couple in my wallet which i forgot the password, so 3.4 bitcoin i've got sitting in a wallet that i will never be able to get access to. a lot of people have worse stories. nice luxurya very car if i could get that wallet open. but i can't. i've been trying for years.
in any case, we will continue to talk about bitcoin throughout the program. right now i want to get over to jason brown, alexis investment partners program. i think the big story right now is the stimulus president trump signed, the budget that is going to keep the government open, unemployment benefits will be expended, eviction protections extended. granted, a little bit late for some. millions are going to have trouble this week. but how important is that, and do you think the u.s. needs more? jason: i think all of the stimulus after this point -- stimulus up to this point was about building a bridge to prevent unnecessary foreclosures , unnecessary bankruptcies, unnecessary business closures. i think the distinction between the stimulus in the first round and what we are experiencing now is at least we can see a road ahead to how much longer we are
going to have shutdowns, how much further this is going to go on. we won't know for sure until we get through the full vaccination process and we really get to see what reopening looks like. i think that is going to determine pretty largely what we look like going forward. but because we have been successful, at least for the most part, at allowing people to save money, allowing people to not have their credit deeply impaired, things of this nature, we have set up for some real opportunity for just the reopening itself to provide tremendous additional stimulus in terms of that potential for the v-shaped recovery in the market to be reflected in the broader economy. so i think that, coupled with the fact that a lot of the jobs that have been lost have been less skilled areas, so the people out of work for this long
doesn't create the level of atrophy you see oftentimes in downturns, really does set the stage that it is unknown what we will need going forward. carol: jason, let me jump in for a second. you said there's a point where the economy catches up with what we are seeing in the financial markets. look at the s&p, up 15%. the nasdaq up 43%. nasdaq's up about 20% this year. -- thet be the wristers reverse, where we realize we are not going to see that growth come back quickly, and we are way ahead of ourselves in terms of those publicly held companies? is it that we maybe see the market at some point going to have to see some kind of correction or pullback because the economic growth is going to take a lot longer than everyone anticipated? jason: my view is obviously much more on how to manage the investments through this window of time. but i would say is overall, had the market may be felt like it's
been ahead of the economy, i would say potentially so. obviously all of the businesses out there and all of the who refinance for businesses, get access to credit at very low rates, eventually they are going to have to pay bute and service the debt, their service is much lower. the potential for when we get back to prior levels of economic activity for there to be not as thoroughly a huge hit to margins, for example, or consumers unleash some of that pent-up demand, i think is pretty powerful. i don't necessarily think the market has done a poor job of helping us look forward in the future. if we do keep running up at the pace we have been going, i think we run that risk that as stimulus comes off, maybe that will become a problem. i think is probably going to be some turbulence early next year, just as we kind of digest everything that is going on
politically, and the gains we've made. matt: carol mentioned the big run-up in benchmark assets. worthing like airbnb was $30 billion, and then we have a global pandemic that kills almost 2 million people, stops travel around the world, stops tourism in its tracks, and all of a sudden airbnb is worth $90 billion, three times as much. it makes no sense to me. i look at a pe on the s&p 500 of 30. how is it possible that these stocks are worth 30 times future earnings? i can't wrap my head around it, no matter how much money we print and pass out. jason: i think of these as two different issues. what has been going on in the ipo market with the s -- with the spac's and all of these different things, there's a lot of speculative access out there.
people have been learning that stimulus alone, too much money and not enough alternatives in terms of fixed income yields, means the stocks don't go down, -- and that is a problem. i think on the other side, we have to remember, for example, the 2009 market meltdown. you had that initial surge off the bottom. it takes a while for the earnings to catch up. we see the lockdowns continuing, the economy and so forth. these earnings are still very depressed with everything that has been going on. as we recover out of that, the earnings are probably going to accelerate faster than the market. at least that is what i am than dissipating -- i am anticipating. do i think stocks are as overpriced as they appear on a broad level? maybe not. carol: jason, we are definitely going to be watching those earnings expect patients. jason browne, thank you so much.
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♪ matt: welcome back. this is "bloomberg surveillance ." i'm matt miller in berlin, alongside carol massar in new york. are all outd lisa on a well-deserved vacation. we are more than happy to fill in for them. carol, a lot going on today to kick off the week. it seems like we wrapped up one more issue. carol: yeah, brexit, finally. reading thiss morning there are still some lingering issues, but let's get to bloomberg's maria tadeo to get a quick check on what we know at this point and what is still to come. there's optimism about the pandemic really are graham -- relief program. where are we? what do investors need to know at this point? maria: i think fundamentally,
what you need to take away from this is that there is a deal. this is something that we weren't taking for granted a week ago. there are no tariffs, and it does avoid that cliff edge transition that would've been very abrupt for businesses on both sides of the channel, so that has been avoided and there has been relief in the market area but i would say is the more you look at this deal in detail, the more you speak to everyone around it, there are many issues that are still pending. this is something that every five years is going to have to be renegotiated. when you look at financial services, which are so key for the city, at this point that equivalence is not clear either. when you look at the level playing field, which is so key for the european union, they've made it clear there could be tariffs. what is ironic as you do have a deal to leave on a good basis, but it does seem this is going to be an ongoing story for many years to come.
be stuck are going to and probably a very long negotiation going upward -- going forward. whole thing got snagged on fishing rights. it is a $10 million industry, and that is what held back everything, pretty much. you mentioned the financial industry. nothing's been solved there. services are 80% of the economy. that hasn't been dealt with either. i want to ask you about something else. spoke this morning about how the european union, how well the european union would divvy up the rescue package, and i was thinking also about how quickly the european union could get these vaccinations out. isn't there a lot of skepticism that they will be table to do a -- they will be able to do either one of those things in a very good manner? maria: and not just in a good
manner, but very quickly. we are looking six months down the line. being that recovery fund , or tot to countries protect and rebuild their economies. especially in brussels, there's a lot of anxiety to get this going quickly and much quicker than it has been done so far. let's remember the united states and the united kingdom or the first to vaccinate, even though the pfizer/biontech vaccine was made here in europe. that was a lot for the european regulators. you get a sense that they want to get it back up and running and get it done. when you look at the recovery fund, rebuilding the european economy, that is the number one priority in brussels. they want to look to the future, how to rebuild the economy and do it better. so it is what to do with that money and what to do with that stimulus. of course, you want to make good
use of that money, but that remains to be seen. just the speed of those transfers will be key. much maria, thanks very for joining us. maria tadeo on the ground, covering everything as usual in brussels. she doesn't stop. she's a 24/7, 365 days a year newshound, so great to talk to maria about that. let's get to kit juckes of socgen, chief fx strategist. let me put a question to you that we have been discussing today. how confident are you that the eu is going to be able to efficiently and quickly handout the stimulus money from its rescue package as needed? i am confident that they will get it done. i am absolutely confident there will be glitches along the way, because that is how europe
works. but i am still confident that we have passed a turn in the road were fiscal policy, after being hardly active for the last in ae, is finally coming meaningful fashion. we are not going to do this quickly where there will be glitches along the way, but it is happening. , the ecbast 20 years has been the only game in town. this money is getting spent, and that is going to be important. carol: i keep thinking of the financial crisis and that protracted recovery, which was ultimately good for many asset classes, but is it once again -- we heard fed chair jay powell talk about the possibility for a long sustainable recovery coming out of this area as well. do you feel like you've got that visibility yet?
kit: i do think that everything about the recovery from the , for some, this time was different. time, it was a look at how a financial crisis was going to leave us with really serious scarring. , think the recovery from this it seems to me, is this has been a horrible year, but if you do a 10 month crisis and in all likelihood, once we get enough aople vaccinated, people with afterwards it is a very successful v-shaped recovery. i don't think there's a lot of scarring that gets left behind as a result of this pandemic. you can put some things in place, but i think this is going
to be a quicker return to where we were before the crisis this time then after 2009, for sure carol: larry summers got a lot of heat -- for sure. carol: larry summers got a lot of heat over the weekend for saying maybe we don't need these $2000 stimulus check. his concern is we are pumping a lot of stimulus into the economy at this point. some argue, let's overdo it. let's make sure everybody is getting what they need. his point is there are people who don't need it who are getting it, and that could lead to an overheated economy. do you worry at all about that? kit: i don't worry in the first instance. it is true, you've got a lot of people who need help now in terms of replacing salaries who don't have any money. the right.t have
it is true on the other side that an enormous amount of the money that is being handed out in this crisis has gone to people who just can't spend it because we are all locked down in places where we can't. demand that lot of will we get these vaccines in, it is going to kick in automatically. in three months, you will find that hase a lot of been saved because people cannot do that much with it. wet means the way in which have vaccines to a significant number of the population, but we have to go for it, and that is why we get such a v-shaped recovery coming out. how will we feel at the end of that about jay powell's commitment to keep rates
? those are good problems for policymakers to have down the road, but they are still going to be helped by the fact that we've got a lot of this inflation and reflationary holding under control. matt: when you talk about overheating economy, i have this mental image of mario draghi chuckling, all right think of ben bernanke on "60 minutes" back in the day when he said inflation is a problem we can deal with. it is disinflation that's the issue. hand dos on the other seem to be gearing up for the possibility of inflation. gold isn't running away tonight 28,000, but bitcoin at is hardly the cult following in
the inflow from these big famous .oney managers but people think printing presses are going to start running out of control, and this is a good hedge against inflation. what do you think? kit: i don't know if it is a hedge against inflation is much prices beingset generally out-of-control as a result of such easy policy. if we come out of this crisis but bondt prices, yields are too low, than the one thing you can bet is it's really ,if -- and in the same those companies are being encouraged to borrow too much
money and fund themselves with .ebt rather than with equity that is where you get this loss of confidence in fiat money and people looking for other assets, gold is one of those, and bitcoin has been a trendy one of those, for want of a description. i do think there is a question we need to ask ourselves, are at least apology needed of make. can we at least apply inflation until all of the things that are gone for the next 20 or 30 years? what is the problem is we are just taking the debt cycle further by having real interest rates that are too low. how do you get out of that, in the sense that it will never go up? carol: these are things we will certainly be talking about for a long time. always good to catch up with
you. kit juckes of socgen joining us on the program. coming up next, we will check in with casei jones of charles schwab. her thoughts on this development as well. i'm carol massar, along with matthew miller. this is "bloomberg surveillance ." ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. president trump has signed a bill containing $900 billion in pandemic release, backing down from demands that lawmakers change the bill before he signed it. it includes one point $4 -- lion conserved includes $1.5 trillion reserved. the number of confirmed covid-19 cases jumped by about 11,000 in the past 24 hours to 1.6 5 million in germany.
germany is death toll was relatively lower in the first phase of the pandemic, but has seen hundreds of deaths per day for weeks. shut data in -- a shut down is scheduled and till january 10, and he will likely be extended. a restriction will last two weeks beginning on january 1. the two georgia runoffs that will decide control of the u.s. senate begin their final stretch this week. president trump heads back to to campaign for republicans. after none of the candidates managed more than 50% of the vote in november. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more
the big change, if it happens, will be with central banks coming up with a blockchain currency. i think that is going to be the big news. carol: yes indeed. robert albertson there of piper sandler, their chief financial strategist, talking about bitcoin, turning out to be one of the big investment stories of 2020. having said that, we did see bitcoin move up again in today's trade. let's walk you through the markets on this monday after a long holiday weekend. you can see risk trade on. some support certainly when it comes to the equity trade, up about 0.7%. 20 points higher on s&p 500 futures. you can see the euro just up a hair. 10 year yield up to 1.95%. take -- let's talk about bitcoin. it hit several records last week, up above $27,000. that is were markable. carol: it is absolutely -- that
is remarkable. matt: it is absolutely unbelievable. the volatility is difficult for as you to stomach, but keep getting higher and higher, mike mcglone joins us to talk bitcoin. one of the most interesting things to me since i started covering this, i've talked to government officials about this, as well as bitcoin legends. is it a currency or a commodity? what do you think? mike: i think it is really more of a collectible like gold. spend it, but you don't really want to spend bitcoin because the demand is picking up. for dollars, we know they are printing more, so to me, that is how bitcoin has appreciated in value, but i appreciate you starting out with volatility.
if you start out on an annual basis, it's volatility versus gold is its lowest ever. footingve found our more going into 2021 that in any point in the past. carol: when you took a look at that bitcoin chart, and when you e, i gets a collectibl it. it is supply and demand. but i think back to when we had a tremendous run-up. what is different about the trend here that we? are seeing is that there -- that we are seeing? is it that there is more institutional money going in? institutions are coming into the space, but it gone from the land of cyberpunk techno geeks into the main space. 2017 is the last time we cut supply. supply was running about 1800 new coins a day. now for 2021, it is 900 new
coins a day. economics, the price must go higher. with institutions coming in, tips will be less extreme and more shallow, and the price will continue to appreciate. i look at $50,000 as the first target resistance, but it is barely double this level. 2017, the market went up 15 times. there was a time when it was amazing, somebody bought a pizza for 10,000 bitcoin, and that was considered a milestone. i remember when guys and gals were buying lamborghinis or ferraris with it back in 2012, and it was worth $1000. now you can use it on paypal which i think is a huge milestone as well, and you've got the biggest names. i mean, paul tudor jones is one
of the biggest legends in the investment world in history, and he is behind this thing. is the next dip considered a buying opportunity? does that happen right before halving, so to speak? mike: my projection is annual volatility will be the same as gold by then. you mentioned paul tutor jones. allowed people understand that reputation risks are against the naysayers now. if you say you don't like it and don't get your coins into it, if you are wrong, you are going to look pretty bad. so i don't see what it is going to take to go down. i think 20,000 is now the key support. in an are more year, he can easily -- in a normal year, it can easily get to --.
that's where bitcoin is completely unique. matt: how do you differentiate it from all of the runners-up? is bitcoin the one? for the investor out there who is my age, or people even older than me who want to get into navigate thisou massive world of coins? there's just so much out there. does it make sense to go plane, vanilla bitcoin, right down the middle? mike: yes. i just showed them paypal. the significance is a lot of millennials now, there's things called no savings accounts, so you can put your bitcoin and savings account and you are in 6% to 8% interest. 10 years from now, that means
instead of having one bitcoin, you have two, obviously paying some tax. money has to flow that way until or unless it fails. right now, the crypto savings .ren't saving carol: as long as there's cheap money, investors are going to be seeking out different types of assets which is why it helps explain some of the run-up we have seen it bitcoin. with institutional money getting more and more involved, do we need to see other kinds of digital currencies out there to meet the demand ultimately? mike: i think the key differentiation is everything represents decentralized exchanges, so it is a completely different bet. bitcoin is more like gold and income ohio, maybe
producing stock market. but if you are not in it 10 years from now, there's going to be major differentiation between people who don't own miami and people who -- who own in -- who own it and people who don't. carol: bloomberg intelligence's mike mcglone joining us on the phone. really smart conversation. you've got to read everything he does at bloomberg.com because it is really hitting all those key points. i do think the conversation when you did a story several years ago has changed dramatically. matt: absolutely. it has become something that was really niche. when i was looking for groceries, i could only find one ,lace in greenpoint, brooklyn and to a manhattan kid like myself, that may as well be timbuktu. i went all the way out there and did buy my groceries for the week.
>> central banks are showing no sign they want to take their foot off the gas. >> we still have momentum, but we are losing momentum at a creek will time. >> we are looking -- at a critical time. >> we are looking for a reboot, a restart and recover. that is the theme for next year. >> the post vaccine rebound is going to be incredibly v-shaped. some.will be v-shaped for it may not be v-shaped for others. >> i think it is going to be europe to out. -- europe too hot.