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tv   Bloomberg Surveillance  Bloomberg  December 29, 2020 6:00am-7:00am EST

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powering intoe year end. no sign of abating. the u.k. is expected to clear the astrazeneca vaccine as early as today. boris johnson may reset his government and the house of representatives backs a stimulus check setting up a battle with the senate and the georgia vote will likely die. this is open quote bloomberg surveillance." get the bloomberg first word news. passed ahe house has bill that would replace the 600 dollars stimulus checks with 2000 dollar payments. house democrats and some republicans stated the proposal backed by president trump and now creates a dilemma for senate republicans. many of them previously oppose the higher stemless payments but
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the approval for the house could pull -- could put political pressure on them. the house voted to override president trump's veto of the $750 billion defense bill. if the house -- of the senate take similar action, it would be the first time one of trump's bills have been overturned. in new york, residents suffering financial hardships due to the coronavirus will get a break. they will be protected from evictions and foreclosures until may 1. that's a law signed by governor andrew cuomo. ist-brexit trade deal potentially a sideshow for the city of london. eu officials must separately approve the regulations and both sides are strong enough to create a level playing field. without that, there could be a steady backup on business.
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news, 24 hours a day, on air and on bloombergquint take this is bloomberg. guy: thanks very much. let's talk about what's happening with the data. the surge continues, the ftse is pricing the post-brexit appeal but a bit of sterling weakness in there as well. the continent are ahead. are pointing to dollar stateside and the .s at $1.22 we are up by around 1.5%. are lower and bund yields in particular. that they are now trading a little lower today.
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let's get back to the politics. the u.s. house of representatives passing a bill increasing the stimulus checks to americans to $2000 and democrats and more republicans are voting in favor of the proposal which significantly is backed by president trump and the bill now heads to the senate. joining us now is cancer really. -- ken cirilli. you've got nancy pelosi and president trump on one side of the fence and mitch mcconnell on the other. how is he going to do with this? kevin: i don't think this will ultimately pass because of the procedure of unanimous consent. clearsdon't think this based on my reporting in the senate. this is an important vote and here's why. moderate republicans in the house of representatives, one of
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them i spoke with right after he cast his ballot, congressman fred up -- upton, a republican of the freedom caucus which helped craft a bipartisan economic bill in the first place, moderate republicans getting on board with this in the house as well as a couple who are anticipated to vote for this in the senate. thatsending a clear signal the incoming biden administration about which republicans they can look or for some accord in their first 100 day effort to get another round of economic relief. that is why this is, in many ways, a procedural preliminary can for the biden administration to save these are the republicans who we can work with for more additional relief. that's why it matters. that's an interesting take. .et's talk about the other boat
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does mitch mcconnell have the votes to overturn the president's veto on defense? bipartisan there is conversations that have been happening virtually four months that should president trump deploy a veto with regard to the defense authorization act that there would be bipartisan votes to override that veto. that's what we are seeing on display. many republicans agree with president trump's position as it relates to section 230 pertaining to big tech companies. they agree with that position to what they don't agree with is lumping it into the defense authorization act which is vital, crucial and important to american national security issues. across the front pages of
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the newspapers, there are concerns that the efforts to get up and running are being obstructed particular at the fence but elsewhere as well. do we know how significant this is and whether or not it will have a meaningful impact on the biden administration efforts to be up and running by inauguration day? kevin: based on my reporting, i can tell you that transition theersations in terms of senior staff level of transition have begun to be worked on for either case scenario in terms of a new incoming team that have gone on. beention warp speed has briefing the incoming biden administration. additionalave sought and more traditional transition conversations to be taking
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place. they are questioning the legitimacy of the election and that's not a democratic position at all. from a security perspective, the biden administration has been receiving briefings. president-elect biden yesterday was talking about national , saying and once again he will rely on allies in europe allies in europe and take a much more multilateral approach that the current admin -- then the current administration. it's a lesson in reddick -- in reddick rick dachshund rhetoric rick dachshund rhetoric but it contrast and ideology. guy: thanks for the briefing. we will have more about this later in the day.
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guy: this is bloomberg surveillance. i am guy johnson in london. to u.k. apparently poised gain another powerful tool to fight the pandemic as early as today. covid-19 vaccine produced by astrazeneca and the university of oxford could be approved by regulators. they will make an announcement a little later on with astrazeneca trading up today. thereg us now is
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pharmaceutical coverage. thanks for joining us. eventt comes to the astro -- astrazeneca vaccine, there was an interesting alumni which interesting anomaly, you get a far more effective vaccine. if we are going to see approval today, do we know the regime that the u.k. will approve? >> good morning, not really. yesterdaysee that that there was an interview with the ceo of the institute of india who was close to the vaccine. -- the 95% 1995 efficacy being seen has to do the time difference between the first dose and the second dose which i received two or three months apart maybe showing
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95% efficacy. i am worried about this comment. i hope there is solid data behind it. suggestions that may be some of this process has been rushed. are those concerns valid? >> certainly not with regards to astrazeneca. they had their first data back in november so whoever is looking at the data is taking their time to analyze it. trial,u run a clinical you should set up your hypothesis at the beginning of the trial. you cannot go inside the trailer and dig for data that is more pleasing. that is a problem. i'm not assuming that that's what they have done. let's reserve judgment on so -- until we see the data but i understand we are dealing with a difficult pandemic.
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guy: in terms of the impact of the astrazeneca vaccine in terms of distribution, can you walk me through the mechanics and how much simpler the mechanics are associating with this vaccine? it's stored in a refrigerator? villagecal gp in the can manage to store it. this makes anna norma's difference. we just have to make ourselves comfortable as to the efficacy of the vaccine. frankly, even at 70 or 60%, it's still a powerful tool given that , overuce the severity 90%. i would be happy to see that but we have to be careful how we position it and make sure we understand the data and its supported by analysis. terms of how this will
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be rolled out around the world, this is a vaccine that can be stored relatively straightforward and remain stable. when are we going to see approval from that institute? they have the ability of their to really have a big impact globally. are we going to see u.k. goes today and then other areas go tomorrow? >> that's perfectly possible. they have been working on this vaccine independently almost given their expertise in vaccines, i'm assuming they will be close to the u.k. if not within a day or two or within a week or so. i'm assuming that would be the case. guy: always a pleasure, thanks for the update.
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we will carry on the conversation later in the hour. we will speak to johns hopkins 'senior scholar. this is bloomberg. ♪ (announcer) do you want to reduce stress? shed pounds? do you want to flatten your stomach? do all that and more in just 10 minutes a day with aerotrainer, the total body fitness solution that uses its revolutionary ergonomic design to help you to maintain comfortable, correct form. that means better results in less time. you can do an uncomfortable, old-fashioned crunch or an aerotrainer super crunch. turn regular planks into turbo planks without getting down on the floor. and there are over 20 exercises to choose from. incredible for improving flexibility and perfect for enhancing yoga and pilates. and safe for all fitness levels.
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guy: welcome back, this is bloomberg surveillance. about where we are for the
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markets. it looks like we will see markets on both sides of the atlantic pushing higher from records. futures are currently pointing higher by a half of 1%. in the bond market, u.s. yields are higher. this is how they are trading but yields are lower in germany. joining us now is chris rupke thank you for joining us this tuesday morning. let's talk about what is happening stateside. there is a debate in washington whether $2000 checks are preferable then $600 checks.
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if we were to see $2000 checks, what impact with that have on the bond market and would that be a danger where we could start overheating the u.s. economy in 2021? >> the bond market is very psychological. people start talking about this causing an overheating of the economy with maybe 10 year treasury yields start inching up 1.4%. i think every economist on wall street has the 10-year treasury yield going to one .25% by the end of 25% -- by the end of 2021 anyway. it probably wouldn't take all that much. one of the key things is whether or not these paychecks, the willmic impact payments actually be spent by the consumer. inhad a payroll tax cut back 2011-2012 which injected about
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$120 billion each year into the economy. cannotsts to this day find any effect on consumer spending. right now, consumer spending is going up in so many character -- in so many character -- in so many character -- in so many categories, not leisure and travel. be very interesting. the $600 billion -- the $600 checks right now that's about $150 billion. the real economy is about $18.5 trillion. if it's spent in the first quarter, it will boost gdp on by 3.2 percent if it's the $600 checks. that's a big chunk already. you are talking about tripling that. guy: we could go even further potentially down the road. we will watch to see what the
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results of georgia will be. if the democrats win, you could a much party undergo bigger stimulus plan in the early part of the ministration. marketossible for participants to accurately gauge what 2021 will look like until they can find out which way georgia jumps? >> i hate to put it down to one election. it's pretty close right now. maybe biden could reach across the aisle and pick up a couple of votes on some of the measures. the biggestt, corporate tax cut in history could happen. that would be problematic for the stock market rally. we have some risks out there.
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it looks like an asset bubble is growing. chair said he didn't see one of the most recent meeting. let's say the s&p 500 or the dow jones industrials were up about 65% since trump was elected back in november, 2016. that 65%tage points of rally, almost a third of it was due to the corporate tax cut. companies didn't make more money, they were given more money by the government. their tax load was reduced to there was quite a written disk weigh risk load there. mostadministration is the business friendly arguably goes away and the new administration comes in, there is a risk for acid rices. prices.asset
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guy: it's going to be interesting to see if it carries on and will the fed be worried about financial stability if the biden administration steps and on the tax side of things and we will see whether that reduces the investors desire for more money to work. what about the portfolio construction in 2021? you have already suggested that you think most market strategist think that yields will be higher and bonds are going down. in terms of portfolio is ituction this year, better to look at bonds or cash. >> that's the real dilemma. i see a lot of risks out there.
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i don't feel comfortable owning market-based assets like stocks or bonds. bonds probably are not going to be the same hedge at least in the coming year. when you buy 10 year treasury up, youd yields go certainly have a mark to market loss that year which erases your interest income. if you are a, long-term investor, you are holding the 10 year treasury for 10 years and you will not really lose that. if you are a long-term investor, is still ok to be in bonds and pick up a slim coupon. i am more nervous than i have ever been. i am part of the baby boom generation. considerate more about having assets in the stock market. is baby boom generation
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57-75 years old and if you think the nation's finances are not on a sustainable path with the incoming secretary, she needs to say wait until the baby boomers retire and they will need a lot of social security and medicare. the national debt right now is -- $2828 billion dollars trillion. i am concerned about market-based assets at this stage. we will leave it there. thank you very much. this is bloomberg. ♪
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r the housei is now daringtika: to most americans. democrats and some republicans approve the measure that would replace the $600 payments in the new virus relief bill with $2000 checks. in the proposal backed by president trump, many senate republicans previously opposed payments larger than $600. joe biden is accusing national security agencies of obstructing the transition. he warns that u.s. could take advantage of the situation. the defense department says it has been working with biden's team with the utmost professionalism. china is struggling to get the world to trust its coronavirus vaccine. have beene shot could a diplomatic win for beijing but developing nations are wary. there has been little information how the chinese vaccines have performed and final stage clinical trials. only the uae and china itself have endorsed the shots for you
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so far. former british socialiteghislaine maxwell will remain behind bars in new york. of jeffreygirlfriend epstein is fighting sex trafficking charges. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and at bloomberg quicktake. this is bloomberg. thanks very much. the world's largest cryptocurrency continues to push for new highs, reaching $28,000 for the first time over the weekend. we are talking about bitcoin which tripled its price in 2020, can the rally be sustained. of a bitcoinepeat bubble. jesse powell is joining us now.
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thanks for your time today. let's talk about what has gotten us here and let's talk about where we go from here. 20/20 appears to be the year that institutional investors have decided this is a real asset class. how much momentum is there currently in terms of asset allocations? >> there is a tremendous amount of momentum behind bit comb -- behind bitcoin right now. there is uncertainty to come about the money printing of the dollar. institutional investors have a lot of cash on their balance sheets on publicly traded companies. positionaccumulating a in the question has been, how do you justify having such an exotic multi-asset on your balance sheet this year and how do you justify not having put it on your balance sheet.
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we are seeingion in the market holding dollars is a risky prospect compared to bitcoin which is finite and predictable and even a greater value than something like gold. it actually act as a counterweight where we will see tech stocks falling in 2021? if you look at the correlation between the real highflying tech stocks and what has happened with bitcoin this year, it is pretty close. his coin really and on correlated asset or is it part of the same story we have seen in 2020? bitcoin haslly, been on correlated to the rest of the stock market. now, we are seeing the both financial assets are just on fire in reaction to the money
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printing that's happening. there is trillions of dollars being ported to the market and that's got to go somewhere. most of it is not going to the individuals who need it but two people who are speculating with it. i think a lot of that money, we will see more stimulus coming, it will just get poured into financial assets. i think a lot of this is to do with the same reason that the stock market is running up and people want to get out of dollars and they don't trust national currencies. the federal reserve says there is infinite money out there. people don't understand where the end of that is. they are pumping the cash into assets, hard assets that are generally returns. heel of achilles bitcoin has been its volatility, particular for institutional investors. do you think that volatility will come down now?
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do you think it's a circular argument that as institutions move in, they will force the volatility low? >> i don't think we will see lower volatility. maybe not until bitcoin replaces other currencies which is something that true believers have predicted would happen all along and something that the true believers are predicting more and more these days. and $1 million of bitcoin, you will have a lot of volatility. not go awayill anytime soon and bitcoin will not break apart. people should be buying in three dollar cost averaging. think it's a buy and hold at set in a long-term investment. burnt. easily get in 2009 andt it forgot about it and are still
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holding it today. why is it just bitcoin at the moment? why not other similar products not seeing the same gains as bitcoin over the last few months? >> it's actually not just bitcoin. the area has performed amazingly well this year. it was down at $100 at the beginning of the year so that is seeing tremendous returns. bigger piece of the ecosystem. we are seeing middlemen completely removed from financial contracts throughdefi which is happening. that's a success story that's in the process of a major upgrade. i think the future is externally um as well astheri bitcoin and it's something people should be looking toward
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if they want to get into the crypto space. guy: how significant is the regulatory risk? i think we will see more regulatory involvement. many regulators around the world especially in the major markets have come up with some sort of regime to regulate cryptocurrency. for others, it falls within the existing regulations. it's certainly not the wild west. it's not what it in 2011. regulators are getting more and more savvy. i don't think there is a risk of any hasty clampdown on the market. i think they are understanding the risk better and they understand this is a remarkable technology that unlike the internet that has the potential to completely change the world and deliver a massive amount of goods to the world and especially the newer population.
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one in four people do not have had -- do not have access to a bank account and crypto can solve that problem. there is a huge amount of potential for the space in the regulators look at that from a public perspective. you would not want to crush that. i think it would be a huge backlash. your time today. back to johns hopkins and the coronavirus story. this is bloomberg. ♪
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today, coming up later
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the russian direct investment fund ceo. this is bloomberg. ♪ guy: good morning, this is bloomberg surveillance and london. francine and tom are both out today but they will be back tomorrow. starting final trials of its vaccine. the ceo is confident it will be effective as the moderna and pfizer vaccine. will it work against the new strain? >> everybody is in the middle of testing the vaccine against that strain. what we know is that our platform, we have use the same platform and common particle has workedect that
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well against flu. our flu vaccine recently showed a broad response against multiple strains. we are hoping we have the same effect with covid. alix: can you update us on your timeline? clear, this is our third efficacy trial we have started. we started the phase two trial in south africa with 4400 volunteers. andtarted a phase 3 program we completed dosing on that. you all the other vaccines, on blind when you have a certain amount of cases and we are waiting to get to that level in the u.k. which will probably early in the first quarter. in the u.s., when we started this trial, we will be doing the 30,000ing and accruing volunteers and be watching for the number of cases. we've got three ways to look at
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the efficacy of the vaccine in the coming months. alix: is it fair to compare the fs -- the efficacy of traditional vaccines m against therna? >> i think it is. we are all into the same thing. fairlyy, i think we are harmonized on the endpoint. certain type of disease we are trying to prevent so we compare it to efficacy across all vaccines. alix: do you and efficacy in the 90's? >> we don't know until we know. did in nonhuman primates and what we did in phase i trials, the data we have demonstrated has been at or above the levelsa of the modern and pfizer.
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alix: you have a good understanding of the side effects, have the increased or changed jack so -- do you have a read on that at all? >> we have a read on side effects from earlier studies and what we've been doing on phase 3 in the u.k.. benign side effect profile. we just finished a phase 3 preliminary trial and we went in with a benign file in early studies with the covid vaccine are safe. mentioned about the new strain of covid vaccine. if you had to tweak things for the new strain, how quickly can you do that with a traditional
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vaccine? >> that's a good question. it will take time i don't believe we will have to tweak it but if we did, it would take time and you would do some comp ability studies. concerned, do you think that would delay the scale up process? understand and market participants want to understand what the risk is and how they need to think about it. say, i think it's a low risk for error vaccine. risk that our vaccine will not work. it, we woulddo have to change the antigen intohat and put it back human studies. novavax president and
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ceo. yesterday afternoon. let's continue our conversation the vaccine. good morning and thanks for your time this morning. expectations were vaccines going forward? the new vaccine can be stored in the fridge so how big an impact will this vaccine have?
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with -- will it be easier from here, the vaccination? >> i think it can only get easier as we get more candidates on the market especially if we chainhave strenuous requirements. the astrazeneca vaccine will be a win for the world. if you try to keep the cold , i think this may be the vaccine for the world when it gets its approval. guy: one of the big challenges at the moment appears to be staffing. there appears to be a zero-sum game about this working. on one hand, we have the need for staff to deal with the ongoing spike in cases around the world. on the other hand, we need staff to vaccinate people. is it a zero-sum game? in ae finding ourselves
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situation where we don't have the people to deliver the vaccine that have already been delivered? >> staffing and health care centers has almost been something that defies what happens in other markets there is an increased demand for labor and more people join us because there are some any barriers to becoming a health-care provider. you cannot just hire people. we have had a long lead time and we knew there would be a surge in the winter but many hospitals did not have a recourse for their staff. withur hospital is dealing covid patients, you were going to have a harder time having enough people to vaccinate. we are seeing vaccinations in the united states ramp up now. it trickled out in the first phases of vaccination. i waited a couple of days before i got my vaccine and i was moving at a much rather -- much more rapid pace. as it moves away from hospitals and nursing homes, we will need
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a lot of community vaccinate or's to get the shots in the arms of people. it's something we have to think about, a sustainable approach to vaccination. of what you expect over the next few weeks, are we going to see a spike in cases as a result of the holiday? how big a spike are we likely to see? one of the front pages of newspaper this morning says we have seen post pandemic records in terms of air travel over the last few days. >> it's inevitable we will see a spike in cases. this virus thrives in social interaction and many people traveled from one state to another and went to private gatherings were likely they let their guard down. to see some level of transmission. hopefully, it's not something that puts us of a surge on top of a surge. we will see some
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level of increase at a time when of casesecord number and hospitalizations. hopefully, people took some level of precautions so we won't see the worst case scenario. i think that happened in some parts of the country but in thanksgiving, we saw an increase in the united states for some states we did not. hopefully, that will happen again. we had to be prepared for more acceleration of cases as we get into the next few weeks. are you expecting more transmissible barriers to now be a feature of the landscape in the united states? will that push the herd immunity point further into 2021? >> based on the u.k. and south africa and what we need -- and what we see about the lack of sampling in the united states, this variance in the united states means the variance is
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already here and it should not be a surprise when they test for these variance. if everything we know about this variance, it has not been proven, a lot of this is laboratory modeling but if we can show this is what's actually happening in this transmissibility is due to these that raises think the herd immunity threshold. the more contagious something is, the more the population needs to be protected. i think that ratchets it up closer to 80% needed for herd immunity. i think we will see benefits from the vaccine once we get the vulnerable population back. that's putting pressure on hospitals, the vulnerable population that are taking up hospital beds and are a big proportion. i think you will see a difference in the way we see this virus because of vulnerable populations.
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error thanks to you. thank you very much indeed. much more later today. this is bloomberg. ♪
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ritika: big changes may be in store for the jack ma group. itscompany may fold operations into a holding company that could be regulated more like a bank. it could be subject to more capital restrictions and that could keep it from lending more. firstcould be one of the american ipo's of 2021. the ipo would value the company at about $14.4 billion. it's been two years since it was acquired by a german software giant. the company makes customer survey software. me testing company 23 and
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has more than $80 million in equity financing. they have turned recreational dna testing into a worldwide phenomenon more than 12 million customers have learned about their ancestry and health background. that is the bloomberg business flash. guy: thanks very much indeed. of is still firmly in charge the markets, the s&p, the dow and the nasdaq are expected to hit further highs today. up, the bloomberg surveillance scorecard is up ahead on television and radio. this is bloomberg. ♪
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♪ >> central banks are showing no sign they want to dip your foot off the gas. >> domestic activity is still really in the doldrums. >> we could see the first quarter dip back into negative territory. >> i'm expecting a fairly tumultuous year coming. >> the biggest stimulus is going to be the vaccine. >> it will be v-shaped for some. it may not be v-shaped for others. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. carol: from new york city and berlin, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance ," live on bloomberg tv and radio. jonathan ferro, lisa abramowicz, and tom keene all have the day off. witharol massar, along matt miller. it seems like everything is just fine. it is like record after


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