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tv   Bloomberg Markets Americas  Bloomberg  December 29, 2020 10:00am-11:00am EST

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alix: it is 10 a clock new york, 3:00 p.m. in london, 30 minutes into the trading day in the united states. i'm alix steel. welcome to "bloomberg markets." apple hitting another intraday record high. no signs of slowing down. it's why i'm calling at the equity melt up. you've got higher yields and a weaker dollar. nothing to write home about necessarily, but that risk on trade continues. it is going to be as we go into the new year, as the stimulus hopes of the $2000 check now permeating within the market. some warning now i the blue wave. what will happen if everything changes come january 5? we will break that down. speaking of stimulus, house democrats and some republicans approving a measure that would replace $600 payments with $2000 checks. it puts senate republicans in a
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doodle, -- in a new dilemma ahead of january 5 elections. we should be hearing from senate majority leader mitch mcconnell later today. joining us now is rick davis, former campaign manager of senator john mccain's 2008 presidential campaign, also a partner at stonecourt capital and bloomberg contributor. it's mcconnell has been in hot seats before. this seems particularly hot. what does he do today? rick: no matter what mitch mcconnell tries, every time he gets stung out on a policy issue with the white house, he says i am waiting for the white house to tell me what to do. the white house approved the legislation that was passed in congress, and the donald trump rejects his own approval. so i think mcconnell is going to be talking to republican senators and he's going to find out that none of these guys want to walk the plank for a $600 stimulus check. support in the they passed it yesterday. they've got a control issue in
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the georgia runoff elections staring them down in the face. the last thing they want to look like is that they are the misers in the holiday season. i would imagine there's a lot of internal pressure to really look at the boat today that schumer is trying to pressure mcconnell to do. alix: i don't know if i have ever seen something like this before when it comes to the defense bill. the veto override in the house is going to the senate, and then president sang today on twitter, attacking republicans as weak and tired leadership that would allow the bad defense bill to pass. what is the strategy here? how is that going to set up the republicans for georgia? rick: it is just trump didn't get what he wanted out of the national defense authorization act. he wanted to christmas tree it with things that had nothing to do with the defense bill after it had already passed. how the defense bill will impact georgia, georgia has a high
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contribution to the military, some very key military bases there. this is what funds the military on an annual basis, and for 57 years, this bill has been passed in a bipartisan, bicameral basis. so donald trump really is making it difficult for these two republican senators running for reelection in a runoff campaign on january 5 by putting these kind of barricades into what should be a very positive message. should be campaigning on the idea that they have increased spending on the military, increased payments to military families, and yet now we are caught up in this rearguard action where the president has undermined the republican bill that was fully endorsed by leadership in both the house and the senate. alix: there was a report overnight the talked about how senator perdue was like, you have to help me in georgia. you need to sign the stimulus
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bill, even though he wasn't necessarily for it to begin with. i want to quote terry haines of pangaea, saying, "all blue potential is underestimated by markets. it is a direct byproduct of president trump's last-minute drama over covid stimulus and government funding and defense legislation." he thinks now we are at about 70% for a republican when. what do you think? rick: it is very hard to predict a runoff election in georgia. if you look at polls that lean democratic, they show the democrats holding a slight edge, all within the margin of error. the republican base pulling oefflererdue and l with a slight edge. it is going to be a close election. i can't imagine a scenario where there isn't the unified approach, where voters vote for both we publicans or both democrats, but not splitting
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that ticket. in that regard, i doubt if we are going to have a hung situation where you have one democrat and one republican win. so you are either all in or all out, and there is no question that the debate around stimulus has been a disadvantage for republicans, both the position they took going into this election cycle, but also the sort of scrambled eggs that the administration has put on the table as to not having a clear approach, i donald trump undermining the republican approach to this. the one thing you don't want to do at this stage of a campaign is change your strategy, and trump has forced his strategy onto them. of course, he will show up the day before the election in georgia to press his points, which should probably even create more confusion amongst voters. alix: it is going to be a really exciting few days, i got to say. ,hanks a lot, rick davis
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bloomberg jupiter. joining us now, christopher j wolf. what do you think about terry note that you could have an underpriced blue wave? stimulus in more this case is likely to propel markets a bit higher, so a blue wave i think in the very near term is probably not as bad as some folks would seem to believe. i think conversely, the long-term picture around easter -- around redistributed taxation policies is something to keep in mind. alix: if we have any short-term telephone that, do you buy the dip? christopher: i think you do for a couple of reasons. regardless of the politics that play out in 2021, the ark of the economy is bending towards reopening. the vaccine is hoping to accelerate that. i think the market is looking
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beyond 2021 and already looking at the operating leverage into 2022. you could be well north of $200 a share in eps with the s&p 500 in a situation where there is a combination of operating leverage, a lot of stimulus still flowing through from the get the side, and you rapid deployment of technology because of all of the covid challenges that help to accelerate the operating leverage. that could be a pretty strong upside story in 2022. alix: so the narrative that we are going to see money go out of tax and into value and small caps, that clearly has been dominating in the fourth quarter. has that not been true? christopher: it has been true. in the near term, that is what the ark of reopening looks like. it is a broader participation not just in the economy, but also in the stock market. keep in mind there is a little bit of mass here. one share of tesla or amazon is worth many shares of these other companies, so if you are a portfolio manager and rebalancing, it doesn't take
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much to start to create a lot of share-based demand for some of these smaller shareprice companies. i think the rotation has been helped by that fact, number one. number two, the combination of all of the debt being created and a little bit more concern about how dovish policies of the fed may be working in this environment is going to push interest rates up a little bit. pretty good for banks overall, but also good for a broader set of the economy. if you're getting towards reopening, that really reduces in some cases and crepes he risks, and that should help casesles -- some bankruptcy risks, and that should help multiples. alix: today we had the nasdaq heading another record, but nonetheless, does tech have to selloff? christopher: no, it just may not appreciate to the same rate. a lot of folks talk about this being a little bit like 1999. the big difference is that there is a lot of earnings power in tech, whereas in 1999 there
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wasn't as much. as we reopen with europe in terms of trading partnerships, or restart the trading relationship, a lot of u.s. technology companies have massive opportunities in europe, so you are going to see some of that growth expectation actually be delivered on. alix: does that mean you need to be rotating out of the u.s.? is the value small caps play really in europe? i feel like that call has been there for years at this point. christopher: i thicket has been there since the middle of this year or so. the real trade over the last several years has been in high-quality dividends, and that has worked out very well, particularly post-covid. but i think at this point, with the combination of vaccine news, and even though it looks very bad in terms of the covid news, things are going to get better the middle of the year, driven by vaccine and more prudent policies. some of the hardest hit areas need rebound the most. i think europe will be favorable there.
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could be japan, particularly on the back of the strength of the chinese economy. so the opportunity outside of the u.s. looks reasonably compelling on that ground. add valuation levels at 20% to 30% discounts, and you have a good story to be rebalancing and have a more global portfolio than the one that was just concentrated in the u.s. in the last couple of years, which did really well. alix: one more question on the u.s., and then we are going to take a break. if you take a look at the russell 2000 small-cap stocks, rolling over the last couple of days, but an unbelievable move, like you said. do you need to be selling small caps here in the u.s., or can you have a value trade that is global? christopher: i think you can have a value trade that is global. i wouldn't be surprised if we get a correction somewhere along the line. there's going to be worsening covid news, etc. it could push sentiment in a negative direction for a short period of time. but i think the longer ark really argues for broader -- really argues
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for broader portfolios, so that rebalancing is a global rebalancing rather than just the u.s.. alix: good stuff. pitchford j wolf of first republic wealth management -- richard j -- christopher j wolf of first republic wealth management will be sticking with us. this is bloomberg. ♪ save hundreds on your wireless bill without even leaving your house. just keep your phone and switch to xfinity mobile. you can get it by ordering a free sim card online. once you activate, you'll only have to pay for the data you need starting at just $15 a month. there are no term contracts, no activation fees, and no credit check on the first two lines. get a $50 prepaid card when you switch. nationwide 5g is now included.
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ritika: let's check in on the bloomberg first word news. i'm ritika gupta. the house has passed a bill that would replace $600 stimulus checks in the new virus relief
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bill was 2000 other payments. bill withcrats and -- 2000 dollar payments. house democrats and some republicans back to the measure. many previously opposed tires to meals payments, but trump's approval could put political pressure on them. the house has voted to override president trump's veto of the 750 billion dollar defense spending bill. if the senate takes similar action is expected, it would be the first time one of the presidents vetoes has been overturned. president trump vetoed a bill in part because he wanted to attach an unrelated provision that eliminates contents liability protections for tech companies. cardinfashion designer p -- designer pierre cardin has died. he wasn't just about clothes. he also stuck his brand on a wide range of products, everything from bath towels to fragrances. his career lasted more than 3/4 of a century. pierre cardin was 98 years old.
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more than 4.6 million people in 16 countries have received the covid-19 vaccine, according to data collected by bloomberg. two doses are required weeks apart. the u.s. has administered the most doses, more than 2.1 million, but dr. anthony fauci tells cnn the u.s. is lacking with its vaccine rate, and officials had hoped to have more vaccinated by the end of december. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. i -- thanks, rit ika. join amy is drew armstrong, bloomberg senior editor for health care. first let's touch on what's how she said. what is he talking about -- on fat felty said -- what's
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auci said? what is he talking about with the disappointment? drew: we know there is significant lag in the data, and the number is higher, but when you talk about getting 20 million doses out by the end of the year, and only seeing 2 million of those actually reaching into arms, even if that number is double what the cdc is reporting, it is a little bit of a disappointment in terms of how fast this is proceeding out on the front lines. alix: does the astrazeneca possibility of getting approved in the u.k., a precursor i'm sure to other countries, does that change the narrative? help, butertainly may i don't think distribution right now is what appears to be the problem. i think the real problem we are looking at is actually, again, shots going into arms.
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it is one thing to get these things shipped around the country. it is quite another thing to say everybody line in this auditorium, you're supposed to be at your important time -- your appointment time. that is proving to be a bit of a tricky part. alix: drew, thank a lot. really appreciate that. still with me, christopher j wolf of first republic private wealth management. ci said this -- as fauci said this, what is the sensitivity to the markets to any vaccine headline? christopher: i think it is reasonably high because the politics behind stimulus are still a little bit up in the air , the $2000 checks, for example. i think what we saw after thanksgiving is a good example. things weren't necessarily as bad, but they started to worsen as december rolled on, so i think the expectation is that we are going to see another wave between here in the first part
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of january. that is going to coincide with the january 5 elections in georgia. i think you have some moments where the market is likely to be highly sensitive to all sorts of new slow during that time period. alix: fair enough. what is going to be the asset that is most sensitive. we have fund managers bearish the most since 2011. rates near 1% on the 10 year. where is it left to shake out? christopher: i thing a lot of it is going to shake out in two places. the credit market, first furl -- first of all. it is really going to last only until march at this point. we are setting up for another round of wait-and-see. what we've had in this go around is wait and see that almost came too late. the stimulus almost came too late. the credit markets i think you're going to be very sensitive to potential bank of the risks as the year develops. goinge the u.s., there's to be sensitivity particularly on the handling of covid and any other stimulus coming in the
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european union. those are two areas i would expect to have the greatest degree of sensitivity, and in europe, it is mostly because of the lockdowns. corollaries include small caps and some of the value names because those are all dependent on the arc of reopening bending any more positive way. alix: obviously all of that is based on bank support and fiscal support as well. where do we still have more room for that? it can be japan, china, other emerging markets, the u.s. christopher: at this point, the ownership is intact. tech doesn't need to sell off. it just probably doesn't appreciate as much as we have seen in 2020 and 2021. it doesn't make it a bad investment. but i think that rotation into cheaper come but is that would be sensitive to economic recovery, think procyclical, that is really demoted mode here. unfortunately it gets wrapped up in growth versus value. procyclical tins to be things like small caps, industrials,
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some of the consumer names. interestingly enough, energy, even though it is a huge electric vehicle push. the key is the earnings exhilaration driven by operating leverage. small caps, for example, typically have earnings acceleration twice the rate of what you see in the large-cap companies. so if things do improve, you would expect some big pops in earning in the small-cap space, for example. alix: many managers, when they are taking a look at what they like the best, they are always looking at asia, particularly china. alibaba got a pop today after getting sold off pretty hard the last two days. what do you do with a country like china that could now have more regulatory interfere when it comes to tech? christopher: i think there's two things. the first is a long health narrative of it is all about population and demographics, and therefore you should buy emerging markets, needs to be put on the side table and just not looked at for a while. that is really not what is driving emerging markets. there are other factors here. the rise of china's growth, its
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dominance in terms of trading partners across asia, and ultimately how it deals with its own debt burdens, the balance between dealing with those debt burdens and continuing to drive 4% to 6% gdp growth. that is really the key. for investors, our view is you want to have a more selective approach than just like it -- just blanket buy emerging markets. that story is a little bit tired. a more active approach is going to be sector and country based. there are consumer stories and parts of southeast asia, consumer stories and japan, there are some consumer stories in eastern europe starting to revise, for example, and industrial develop into an parts of latin america, so it is almost sector, country, and name approach rather than a blanket. alix: really appreciate it. chris for j wolf of first republic private wealth management -- chris to for j wolf of first republic private wealth management --
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ritika: it is time for the bloomberg business flash. for the first time in almost two years, a boeing 737 max will make a commercial flight in the u.s. american airlines will be flying from miami to new york today. the 707i was grounded in march 2019 after two crashes killed 346 people. it cost boeing tens of billions .f dollars 1984" came through for hbo max. there were 244,000 downloads on sunday. meanwhile, the disney plus streaming service had about 2.3 million global installations of its mobile app over the christmas holiday. big changes may be in store for jack ma's ant group, under siege from chinese regulators. the company may fold its
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financial operations into a holding company that could be regulated more like a bank. ant would be subject to more restrictions that could keep it from lending more. that is your business flash. alix: thanks so much. let's dig a little beeper. the problem is on a complete level, china's online loan market is totally booming. it could outpace the u.s., as well as japan this year. jump seeing a big 130% fore 2013, at accounts almost 3% of all loans in china last year. the deeper ripple effect of this is where the problem really lies. these guys basically transfer their credit risk to their funding partners. ant group has about 2000 partners, followed by j.d. digits with 300. ant kept about 2% of these loans on its books, which is why regulators are asking them to increase their credit exposure. there's two stories ahead with
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this. one is that it is going to be clear, it is a more predicable business model, there will be more certainty with the company. everything is going to be ok. goldman did it. the other is that they fundamentally have to rethink how they are doing their business, and even if they siphon off everything into a holding company, it is not going to have the same kind of growth and profitability it has now. really interesting things playing out there. lots of private equity guys involved in ant. what's that going forward. still ahead, you've got virus, vaccine, plus fiscal aid shaping the rest economy in 2021. we will break that down with wells fargo's institutional investment strategist. this is bloomberg. ♪
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alix: live from new york, i'm alix steel. this is "bloomberg markets." the covid pandemic has driven a
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wedge in the economy, pointing to what many are calling a k-shaped recovery, while those at the top continue higher, while those at the bottom face pressure. joining us with more is abaco doolittle. abigail -- is abigail doolittle. abigail: take a look at the employment picture. it is pretty grim. these are the number of unemployed going back decades. here in early 2020, spiking to more than 20 million. most of them in white, temporary unemployed. now we are down sharply, but discouraging is the fact that in blue, permanently unemployed is currently. million that is definitely a trend that is not very encouraging. for all of those folks who have lost income, we are hearing so much about evictions happening now. fortunately here in new york, they have extended the moratorium until january 31, but
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we have a dichotomy for those making less money, less than $25,000, almost 2 million people , but even above $100,000, there's the expectation that 300,000 people will be evicted. not surprisingly, it does come down to education. folks who have a little but of high school are the most vulnerable. folks who have a little bit of college are also vulnerable. those folks who have a bachelors degree or higher are 60% employed today, so education has a big part of this for sure. finally, if we take a look here at the haves, a piece of it was the education. 68% of folks who are employed, the net worth for those who are doing well right now is up 17.6% year-over-year through the pandemic, and far more than what we have seen in recent years, so it really is the year of the
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haves and have-nots or that k-shaped recovery you were talking about. alix: thank you very much. let's dig in deeper to the u.s. economy. says we now forecast q1 22 anyone growth at 5% plus -- a new report says we now forecast q1 2021 growth at 5% plus. joining me now is gary schlossberg, wells fargo investment institute global strategist. before we get into some of the details, what is your projection for 2021? would you agree with goldman? gary: we think growth is going to be a little bit slower, probably in the order of about 4%, but a lot of it i think really depends on the extent to which the economy, the gross recovery can really gather momentum. during the latter part of the year, is that vaccine is assimilated into the economy, people are vaccinated, the lockdowns ease a bit, people increase spending.
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we are a little more guarded on the outlook over the course of the year, beginning with a very difficult first quarter. we look for growth at a very modest rate. alix: usually, what most of the bulls would point to is that high household savings rate. therefore when things open, you're going to rush up to spend it. people make the same call about comedies like morgan stanley as well. it is actually going to happen? gary: i think to some extent, it will. the savings rate is elevated at the moment, but we think that is confidence improves, as people get back to some type of normality, that savings rate will follow bit more noticeably. that is dry powder for consumer spending. on top of that, earned incomes for the haves and have-nots, those with jobs continue to see an increase in earned income, which should provide good support to spending as well. one difference from the recession 10 years ago and its
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aftermath, household net worth continues to rise, and unlike the collapse that we saw over a decade ago. that should serve consumer spending well. on top of that, low mortgage rates driving housing, and even business investment, building out those tech platforms to support increased online shopping should support investment. so broad-based strain, but again , picking up from a modest rate in the first half of the year and then revving up a bit during the latter part. alix: what kind of stimulus bill really needs to come out of d.c.? gary: the stimulus bill we have seen, the $900 billion really is more pandemic relief fiscal support than fiscal stimulus. it really is directed at those have-nots. the one area, the $600 rebate paymentr direct income
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is not really tailored only towards those have-nots. people with jobs will be getting them as well. to some extent, that could provide some stimulus, although here again, given the uncertainties in the first half of the year with the lockdown come arising infection rates into early 2021, we expect to see more of that income going support,hat fiscal going towards saving rather than spending. businesses have built up with some of the borrowing we have seen come very aggressive borrowing over the course of the past year. is your base expectation for any kind of stimulus in 2021, when biden takes office, or not? gary: we could see some added fiscal stimulus from the government. the big stimulus will come from effect ite, and the
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has. immediately after the new president x office, or later and 22 anyone, a lot of that has to do with the january 5 runoff elections, of course. if the democrats can gain control of the senate, even with a razor thin majority, certainly the chances of more stimulus go up. keep in mind, however, that was a democratic majority in both houses of congress, there is also an increased chance of higher taxes sometime later in the year, which could act as something of an offset. fortunately, when the economy is truly gaining momentum, hopefully. alix: it seems like the other canary in the coal mine is the vaccine rollout. todayuci talking to cnn about that, that we are not where we want to be. what happens if things are just slower, it just takes longer to get the vaccine in people's arms? the fiscal multiplier isn't as big as maybe we expect it? gary: assimilation into the
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economy is certainly a big issue. not only the logistics, getting the vaccine out, and we are running behind their, but the willingness to be vaccinated. the efficacy of the vaccine presumably will continue to be at 95%, but we are dealing with a much larger sample, if you will, of the population. we are still counting on things gathering momentum, the vaccinations gathering moment him during the first half of the year. i can't speak to the ability to get back on target. certainly if we continue to run behind on those vaccines, then we will probably see the y's gross gathering momentum in the second half of the year, and that means full-year growth will be a little more modest. alix: it was really good to catch up with you, gary schlossberg of love fargo -- of wells fargo investment institute. we did want to bring you an
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update of a live shot of american airlines, returning to service with the mac 737. it is on the runway, ready to take off. this is the first flight since those two deadly crashes come to the longest aircraft grounding in the nation's history. president will be on both of those flights to reassure that they are safe, etc. u.s. regulators lifted the flying ban last month after major revisions. we will continue to watch the plane as it takes off. this is bloomberg. ♪
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ritika: this is "bloomberg markets." coming up today on "balance of of the adam posen peterson institute. this is bloomberg. ♪ are noti: we certainly
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at the numbers we wanted to be at the end of december. you heard talking about 40 million doses for 20 million people. even if you undercount to million, how much undercount could it be? so we are below where we want to be. alix: that was dr. anthony fauci, the u.s. government's top infectious disease expert, sounding the alarm over vaccination levels in the u.s. he also expressed concern over a possible surge in january as concern over a new strain of the virus continues to take hold in the u.k. for more on how did move forward -- on how to move forward, i am joined by andy z, school of public health professor. what fixes the problem that dr. fauci highlighted? >> you know, this sounds cliche, but this is an unprecedented vaccine rollout. so i think we should expect some speed bumps along the road. what we hope we are not going to run into his roadblocks.
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the rollout has been a little bit slower. there is some lagging in terms , the number of vaccines a place gets versus the number administered. i have a feeling we are working through some of the speed bumps right now, and i get a sense that we are picking up speed, so i imagine that these first couple of weeks are going to be a little bit bumpy, but we will go forward and really hit a stride come the beginning of january. alix: as any of that due to be bought the top? i know president-elect biden is speaking later today on vaccine lags. does this get solved january 20, or is it a hiccup because there's a lot to do? andy: i think it is just a hiccup. the vaccine rollout is happening during the holiday season, and places aren't has staffed as highly as they should be. we are trying to take care of
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covid-19 patients, as well as administer vaccine in many places. my hospital here is a great example of that. so right now there is a lot of stress on the system, and we have to make sure to keep the patients as the primary goal, and these other things are going to start hitting their stride once we get past the holiday season. alix: what is the importance of the u.k. approving the astrazeneca vaccine? what kind of difference met that make worldwide? andy: i think the critical thing with the astrazeneca vaccine is the refrigeration considerations, as well as room temperature. so what that really does is expand the capability of where we can vaccinate people. this goes into resource settings and breaks the freezer chain that the moderna and pfizer vaccines have to have, so it really does allow us to speed up vaccinations and go to areas
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where we were struggling to get with the pfizer, turn a vaccines because of that freezer requirement. alix: the russian vaccine is going to argentina today, and should start vaccinations despite the fact that a lot of russians don't want to be vaccinated by it. how do we know which ones are ok? andy: fortunately here in the u.s., we have the fda and its approval process, which is very open, very transparent, and we can see all of the data that the fda is making their decisions upon. i must say that i haven't seen much of the sputnik data come through. presumably those countries have some level of comfort with the data they are seeing. but at least here in the u.s., and this is true for most of europe, you will see the data of any vaccine that gets the emergency use approval, so everyone will have the peace of mind to be able to see how those decisions were made. alix: what do you make of the new strain?
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i talked to the novavax ceo yesterday, and many officials say presumably, these vaccines work against many different strains. it should be fine against this one is currently spreading. andy: it is a very interesting development. a couple things about this new strain. it spread very quickly throughout regions of england, so that is one warning sign. it also had a large number of mutations, much larger than other strains currently circulating. those are two warning signs that for neurologists like myself that say i wonder if there is something changed about this strain. thatseen some data already many strains will react to this virus, so that is one concern that is going to be alleviated soon. i think why the virus is spreading is something that is still under consideration. we are seeing it appear in a couple of other countries. it will be very interesting to
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see if the virus spreads there as quickly as it did in england. there are many laboratories, mine included, trying to study this variant to see if it is actually behaving differently than other strains circulating right now. i would say there is some concern. we want to be cautious about it. but i would not say that people should be overly concerned about this variant yet. alix: i guess i am also curious as to what the different mutations are. why did it spread so quickly? and also, how much of it is that when you have shut downs, people just aren't abiding by the rules anymore because they are tired of it? andy: every time you see spread of the virus, lots of things could be driving that. a few super-spreader fears events and poor public health interventions could also lead to this virus spreading in the way it did. the mutations are interesting because three of them occur in
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the spike protein. that is the protein that the virus use to attach to cells. as is also the main target of the vaccine. the mutations might change the ability of this virus to attach to cells, and that might change how the virus transmits, how easily people get infected, all of those things. that is why those mutations are particularly of interest. there's a whole host of other mutations that we don't know if they have just occurred randomly, or if they really are mutations that are changing the way the virus functions. but the ones that we know and have identified and are clearly associated with the s protein are known. it is the other ones that are a little but unknown that we need to study in the laboratory as soon as possible. alix: everyone is still wearing their masks and washing their hands. what else can be done if it can spread faster? andy: effective use of all of those things.
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that is the critical thing. these mutations aren't going to make the virus able to get through a mask, or they won't make the virus resistant to soap and water. we just have to be really good about implementing this public health interventions widely and making sure we have as few possible holes in our public health intervention that the virus can get through. it is really about the effectiveness and the implementation of those things. alix: andy, thanks a lot. i think you just made the mom feel better. thank you very much. johnsuld note that hopkins bloomberg school of public health is funded by bloombergoomberg and philanthropy's. now with the first word news is ritika gupta. ritika: democrats and some republicans in the house approved a measure that would replace the $600 payments in the new virus relief bill with $2000 checks.
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it is a proposal backed by president trump. many senate begins previously posed payments larger than $600. joe biden is accusing trump loyalists at national security agency's of obstructing the transition. the president-elect warned that u.s. adversaries could take advantage of the situation. he cited political appointees at the pentagon and the budget office. the defense department says it has been working with bidens team with the utmost professionalism. federal officials are trying to piece together the clues to determine a motive for the nashville christmas day bombing. officials say a suspected bomber anthony warner took steps that suggested he knew he would not survive the blast, like giving away his home in his car. thatmer neighbor tells ap he said "nashville and the world will never forget me" before the blast. . the post-brexit trade deal is essentially a sideshow for this view of london. eu officials must rule
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separately that oversight is a strong enough to create a level playing field. without that, there could be a steady leakage of business for u.k.'s finance industry. big banks of already started to shift people and assets to the continent. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. alix: also happening right now, vice president-elect kamala harris is about to be administered to covid-19 vaccine at the united medical center in d.c.. we don't know if it is the moderna pfizer vaccine yet, but we will bring you pictures as they happen. still ahead, gold climbing after the u.s. passes a bill to boost household checks to $2000. this is bloomberg. ♪
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alix: time now for futures in focus. we are looking at gold, up a thele bit in relation to $2000 to meals checks proposed by the house. joining me now is bloomberg's eddie van der walt. you have a pretty good eye when it comes to gold. you can come at it with some skepticism here. what is the actual upside if we continue to get a weaker dollar, if we continue to get lower real yield? eddie: those are all the big talking points. you get the real note on the head last time, when we spoke about the upward trending 200 day moving average. we are seeing that play a real role in boosting gold prices, and we bounced back a little bit. i think the technicals for gold, as up as it did in the first part of 2020. alix: it doesn't feel as uppish.
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that may be the quote of the day for me, eddie. what is its relationship with bitcoin? i feel like a year ago, if we would have spoken, some might say that they are both safe havens, they're going to move together, etc. what is the deal with it now? gold is up in 2020, bitcoin is up in 2020, there must be some relation. but look at the assets. we have really seen a very different driver, and bitcoins rally in the latter half of the year, gold in the early half of the year, i think really they are being driven by different sets of investors, but there are things they have in common. i think bitcoin and gold are both driven by the fear that monetary policy has gone too far, they have also been driven by just the excess liquidity sloshing around in the system. but bitcoins star is in the ascendant, and golds is fading.
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alix: that means you don't need to have investors sell out of gold to buy bitcoin. it can be two investor classes, or someone can own both for the same reason? eddie: right. i don't think these are necessarily competing assets. they don't have a lot in common. in terms of their correlations with other assets, bitcoin is still a very risk on asset, and venture a lot more with capital in your portfolio. alix: before i let you go, what is your top metal picked for 2021? where do you think the most flow is going to go to? eddie: copper is so hot at the moment. it just feels like that copper has got legs. alix: that's what most everyone says, particularly if you take a
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look at the shift into green energy and all of that new equipment. it is really good to catch up. appreciate it. eddie van der walt going us from bloomberg. , apollop, torsten slok management chief economist, joining me as we are fading any kind of rally we saw on the markets. you had a record for the dow, the s&p, and the nasdaq yesterday, so we are kind of flat at this moment. apple hitting a record i high right out of the gate, now also ticking higher by 0.2%. what we are familiar with is a weaker dollar and higher yields. zero dollar at one point today hitting the highest level so far of this year. the question becomes how much ?ore juice is the trade we will try to break that down globally as well. this is bloomberg. ♪
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alix: live from new york, i'm alix steel, counting you down to the european close on "bloomberg markets." brexit deal, the good and the bad. >> the european parliament will vote at the end of february or the second week of march. this is still to be decided, and talks are ongoing with the commission of the number states, but also the british side. alix: europe pushes out the timetable to approve a deal, while u.k. stocks fly higher. the eu and china near an agreement on investment, seven years in the making, and could be a steppingstone to a trade deal. and waiting for the next vaccine. u.k. should approve the astrazeneca treatment soon as the market seems to fade the vaccine news with each shot. let's check in on the markets. this is an important day, the first time where u.k. assets have a real ability to react to that brings a deal reached on christmasvean


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