tv Bloomberg Surveillance Bloomberg December 31, 2020 4:00am-5:00am EST
♪ francine: china approves its first vaccine for general use as a second u.s. case of the u.k.'s covid-19 variant is detected, this time in california. u.k. lawmakers approve the post-brexit trade deal less than 24 hours before the end of the transition period. boris johnson imposes tighter restrictions on most of the country, warning of extremely tough months ahead.
good morning, everyone, and welcome to "bloomberg surveillance." let's check in on the markets. first of all, happy new year's eve. it is a good day to be together just to reflect on the year that we have had. it feels we have had about a decade in the last 12 months. our thoughts go to the families of those who have lost loved ones because of covid-19 or otherwise. on a quieting a year note. the dollar at the lowest in two years. the app sure yuan strengthening -- the offshore yuan strengthening to the highest since june of 2018. we finally have brexit, has finally been voted through in the house of commonss. the strength in the cryptocurrencies showing no signs of slowing down. we are looking at bitcoin, up around 29,000 before pulling back. one story dominated the news and the markets and that was covid-19. let's take a look back at the
year that was. ♪ >> a second person has died in central china after being infected with a new sars like virus. >> china bans travel from the coronavirus epicenter with at least 17 dead and hundreds infected. >> we now have a name for the and it is covid-19. >> we are seeing fresh cases in the u.s., germany, france, rent. >> with the dow set to record its first drop since -- worst drop since 2007 -- >> governments and all other policy institutions are called upon to take timely and targeted to address the public health challenge of containing the spread of the coronavirus.
>> we are looking at sending checks to americans immediately. pres. trump: the united states is working with our friends and partners around the world to stop the spread of the virus. >> there is definitely some fear and uncertainty in the market, especially if you look at what happened overnight with the u.s. overtaking china as the place with the most confirmed cases of coronavirus. >> i have developed mild symptoms the coronavirus. >> this is a crisis like no other. it is the worst thing since the great depression. >> global debts from the coronavirus now surpassed 500,000. >> global deaths have had a million. pres. trump: i have learned a lot about covid. i learned it really going to school. >> we are all in this together. >> covid cases are surging across year. >> the uk's forecast to borrow a total of 394 million pounds this 19% of gdp.lent to >> it's amazing to see the vaccine come out come it's amazing to see this tremendous shot and the arm for the entire nation, but we can't afford to relax now.
a look at the key developments in the covered pandemic, including britain approving the pfizer vaccine. yesterday, the astrazeneca oxford shot became the second approach vaccine in the you cake -- u.k. a second case of the highly transmissible covid-19 variant has now been detected in california, a day after colorado reported the nation's first known infection. what do we know about the new variant? well, we have heard that it is more contagious than the original variants that were out there. we do not think it is necessarily more dangerous in fatalities or anything like that. it is probably out there a lot more widely than we think.
of cases reminiscent of the early moments we ran through when the virus was spreading from china and some of these countries were reporting a handful of cases. in fact, it was probably pretty widespread already at this point -- that point. the same could be true of this new variant, you got to imagine. francine: we understand that the vaccine is still -- will still work against this new variant. how have the rollouts been going in the europe and u.s.? right.hat's it looks like they can quickly engineer them so that they will be effective against ovarians -- against ovarian -- variants. in the u.s., there is concern that it is not going as quickly as expectations, which was for 20 million doses to be delivered by the end of the year. there are only about 3 million or so, so well behind. that's a large number of doses. the u.s. is ahead of europe and other regions.
about half of the global total that has been administered so far. it is moving, just not quite as quickly as was hoped. ofncine: we are also hearing new clusters, beijing, that was largely rid of the disease. also, certain parts of australia. how much of a worry is there amongst the scientific community that this mushrooms back out of control? they are small numbers at the moment, those clusters in china, other parts of asia that pretty much contained it. there are a handful of cases there now. look, this thing has not been squelched, obviously. control, to some extent, in parts of europe and the u.s. there is certainly that danger. china, since the initial days of this, has done a pretty good job of keeping it in check. francine: all right, thank you so much.
post-brexitn's trade you has been approved through the u.k. parliament. the prime minister signed the agreement after it was rushed through both chambers in just a single day. that's take a look at what is changing from tomorrow. -- let's take a look at what is changing from tomorrow. matter'what, the u.k. relationship with the eus is changing. traveling across the channel, you will need six-month on your passport and only be able to stay for 90 out of 180 days. want to live and work? the withdrawal agreement protects the rights of those already abroad. to move in the new year, there will be new costs and residency requirements. goods trade will see more friction. there will be new customs declarations, special certificates to move food, animals, and plants. you will need the right paperwork to even get close to some u.k. ports. the u.k. is giving the importers a six-month grace period, but
the. eu is not following suit the city of london is set to lose its automatic right to sell into the eu. the u.k. has granted brought equivalents to eu capital, auditing, and insurance, but eu has been a narrower, granting just temporary equivalents for u.k. clearing and it is in no rush for other financial services. on what: anna edwards will be different from the eu and u.k. from tomorrow, january first. let's get more with our reporter. does this mean that brexit is now over politically. definitely ink the short-term it is over. we have the wrangling of these trades talks, that is all done. i do think brexit will be a live issue this year and in the years to come. tariffs haseu with been --
this relationship will still be at the center for a long time. francine: will the u.k. actually tonight?for brexit >> i think we are expecting some disruptions at the borders but i think that might not happen in the first days and weeks as we know that the freight levels are quite low at this point in the year, naturally so. are businesses ready for new paperwork? the government does not quite know. [indiscernible] francine: thank you so much, joe our brexit brexit reporter. let's get more on the challenges facing u.k. companies. joining us today is david bailey , professor of business economics at the birmingham business school. a bit of an expert when it comes to carmakers.
thank you for joining us. when you look at some of the concerns about the paperwork and car manufacturers getting the right supplies that they need into the country, how much of a disruption will we see in terms of prices going up, inflation going up, or just goods stuck at the border in the initial phase? david: that's the really big question. the deal avoids tariffs and quotas, as long as rules are complied with. there is a lot of nontariff barriers coming in, despite with the prime minister has claimed. the cost of completing customs declarations, complying with with of origin, complying the supply chain components, those costs are going to be quite substantial. in terms of completing customs declarations, there is a cost of something like 15 billion pounds a year for the whole economy. these are going to ada. it will put in -- add up. it will put in extra friction.
costs and prices will increase over time. francine: is it difficult to know by how much prices will actually increase by, professor? and by the time we have these price increases, will there be other events having taken over? will we be looking at less multilateralism generally in the world? david: that is a good point. i think companies will have to change their strategies to cope with what brexit means. that might involve changing where their production takes place. it might mean sourcing more in the u.k. in terms of components. remember as well that the whole industry is transforming towards an electric future. there is some flexibility in the deal allowing more content from outside the u.k. and the eu in the short-term. be a lotthere has to of local content. you have brexit coming along at a time when the industry is
completely transforming itself. francine: the u.k. sector, is there a sense that it has been sacrificed in order to have free trade of movement? that the dealhink in as far as it goes is going to be welcomed by much of manufacturing and automotive. it has avoided tariffs. if there had been tariffs, i think that would have killed the industry in the u.k.. we would have seen huge job losses and a lot of bank closures. that has been avoided in the short-term. i think that opens the green light to some investment that have been stalled because big multinationals did not know what the big trading relationship would be. i think you will see nissan aking big -- in 2021, peugeot may invest in the u.k. as well. in. is lagging badly behind electric vehicle supply chain.
we don't really make factories at scale in the u.k. in six months, the batteries have got to come from either the eu or u.k.. if the investment is going to europe, it does not make much commercial sense to bring it back from europe into the u.k. to go into a car to than export. if we want to anchor production in the u.k., we have to invest in making factories. some profound implications for the deal. me aine: professor, give sense of what you think the u.k. economy will become in four or five years. what will london become? will we have lost our way to new s, evend other capitol in europe, or can the u.k. become an attractive place for investment? david: that's a very good question about financial services. in the sense that the deal we have seen agreed does not really cover financial services, and
lays foundations for a possible agreement in the future. granted aas equivalence. the u.k. will lose passporting rights into europe. we are seeing elements of the financial services value chain break off from london and go to other places. there is a big question about the factor that this is really a new beginning. there is going to be a need for further agreements going forward. the deal really is simply a starting point. bere is going to be have to a whole load of extra work around financial services, and regulatory cooperation between the u.k. and eu. that is going to go on for years actually. francine: do we underestimate how much the u.k. will actually need to the u.s. as a viable partner on trade in the coming months, years, and decades?
and what will that relationship look like? david: that's one of the big questions. from the government's point of view, one of the reasons for breaking away from the european union was this ability to do trade deals with other countries, including the u.s. that is very much top of the list for the u.k.. whether that is a view that is shared in the u.s. is a different perspective. the hope is that there could be some sort of trade deal between the u.k. and u.s. to boost trade between the two. that's going to raise all sorts of questions around standards in farming and agriculture, which in turn the eu will have a view on. that boost to trade between the u.k. and u.s. is not going to compensate for the loss of trade between the u.k. and the eu. effectively, what the u.k. has done is put up some nontariff barriers with the biggest single market in the world in order to try to say to the rest of the world, we are
open to trade. overall, the net economic cost of this will be quite significant and will be a drag on the u.k. economy over the next 10 years. know, we the u.s., you found out today will slap additional tariffs on the eu. what role will the u.k. play in further disputes? david: that's going to be an interesting question, because the u.k. was very much in a y into theu.s.'s wa european union. that will no longer be the case. if there is a concern in the u.s. about something happening in the eu, the u.s. president will not be making a phone call to boris johnson anymore, they will make the phone call directly to angela merkel. the u.k. has lost that really important role that they played as a bridge between the u.s. and eu. the u.k. will be looking to cut its own trade deals with countries, in particular the u.s. i do not think a boost to trade from that will be that
significant. if you remember, the u.s. already has very low tariffs on things like cars, only 2%. u.k. companies like jaguar land rover already sell a lot of cars into the u.s. the trade deal is not going to boost that much further. francine: thank you so much. ,oining us today, david bailey professor of business, talking about brexit and some of the things we should be watching out for. he is professor of economics at the birmingham business school. coming up, we take a look at what to expect in 2021 and preview the pivotal georgia senate races in the u.s. this is bloomberg. ♪
♪ >> no deal is perfect. i guess that the shot coming possibly still. we have a negative list, something we obviously resent. we have no negative list in europe for chinese business. legislation, we get told of these areas you cannot invest. now, we have to see how this plays out with this deal. we have these constraints. we have every year this position paper of the chancellor that is a solid 400 pages with more than 900 recommendations. we have to work through the details in order to see where we have real improvements. whenhot coming possibly,
you look at the negotiation side , that wanted to have a stronger sustainability basket. there has been some very soft language on forced labor. the soft point of that could actually be challenged by the european parliament and the second part of 2021. francine: tom mackenzie in china speaking with the eu chamber of commerce in china president, joerg wuttke. the senate runoff in georgia in the u.s. could play a lot like the president -- they can play out a lot like the presidential election in november. that is a result delayed by days or weeks while record numbers of votes are counted. these seats are critical to decide if the senate is split or if republicans will get control. democrats will need to win both seats to gain control. we will bring you full coverage
of that next week and later also the reporter who is traveling to georgia and that is emily wilkinson. she joins us in about an hour and a half from now. the busy restaurants of last summer seem like a world away. as moche -- much of europe prepares for winter restrictions, how is the hospitality sector facing up to the challenges. we speak to the owner of an italian restaurant, francesco mazzei. this is bloomberg. ♪
politics. this is "bloomberg surveillance." i'm francine lacqua, here in london. now, the combination of the brexit story comes as boris johnson imposes tighter virus restrictions on most of england. astrazeneca oxford university shots gained approval yesterday. the capacity to effectively deliver the vaccines from pfizer and astrazeneca. zeneca canof after potentially manufacture to million doses a week. we have the infrastructure to deploy that. at the moment my limitation is the speed at which we can get deliveries from both astrazeneca and pfizer, not the infrastructure. joining us now is bloomberg's emma chandra, who spoke with the minister. more restrictions for more of england. what exactly is the scope? toa: 20 million people added
the tier four restrictions, meaning 78% of the english population is facing the toughest restrictions in the u.k., and those tough restrictions -- tier four is similar to the lockdown to what we saw in the virus back in march and april of last year, all essential businesses are closed, people encouraged to stay home, to only leave home for emergencies when they have to travel for work. we are hearing that schools are delaying opening across england after the christmas holiday. that is secondary schools here in london, about two thirds of primary schools also closed, those children not going back to school from january 4. and a big impact on business, many forced to close. hearing all of this yesterday when we got that good news about the approval of the oxford -astrazeneca vaccine.
wanting topart from shout because my kids' school is closed, the people in intensive care -- we keep on thinking about them constantly, whether that is overshadowing the positive news about the vaccine. emma: of course. my son's nusra school -- nursery school is still open, so we are glad that he is going back next week. a bit of a bittersweet day yesterday when we heard about the new tier four restrictions for much of england, it also the eye astrazeneca vaccine has been approved, and really vaccine rollout now seen as the only way to curb transmission of the virus. and in that interview i did with wasvaccine deployment, he saying that they have the infrastructure ready. mass vaccinations beginning
monday next week. they hope to get to about 2 million vaccinations a week. but he also spoke about 26 million people in the u.k. ated.d to be vaccin the most vulnerable will get the vaccine first. if you reach 2 million vaccines a week, that still will take about 30 weeks. wethe prime minister said, are in for tough months ahead. francine: emma chandra from the bloomberg office looking at these tier four lockdowns and exactly what this means for industries. let's discuss the future of the hospitality sector. my next guest opened his first restaurant at the age of 18. he now has a string of eateries in edinboro, milan, and bangkok. how has he faced 2020, and how is he looking forward to 2021 after perhaps the most
challenging year for the sector in memory. -- thank you so much and congratulations on your recent italian knighthood. when you look at the challenges of the food industry and lockdowns, how will the london restaurants business actually survive this? >> good morning, everyone. at the moment, we don't survive, all the restaurants are shut and it is very difficult to see when we are opening. and the support of the -- it is quite tough because we don't know what is going to happen next. and when it is finished, will it be a good situation for us. francine: you are doing deliveries for new year's eve, done is takeaway, you have
business on instagram and things like that. does that generate enough money for a restaurant to stay alive, or is it government support? when do the finances run out? : yes, you get support, but you use a third of the staff. you survive only with delivery. this is not enough. we need proper support from the government to make sure that we can deliver properly. there has been talk to a point with the minister of hospitality that that will probably put clarity on the future of aggressive business. francine: are we going to get bankruptcies? when are you expecting the situation to go back to normal? how many people do you need in a restaurant to be able to survive and make money? is it 60% capacity, or is that
more? : it is more. it depends on the costs that you use and what matches your rent. of people are in bankruptcy already, especially i street shops. isdon't know exactly what going to happen, and of course we are hoping that by spring or summer we all go back to a normal life. at the moment it is all it been the air -- it is all up in the air, so it is quite tough so. . francine: how will brexit impact products? francesco: it looks like with this agreement at the moment, it will not change much. my fish, all may meet, most of my veg from the u.k.
isit looks like not much going to change, but let's see in the next few weeks. francine: i know you have done a lot of work with charities, trying to test workers, and you have been on many programs talking about cooking as we are all stuck at home literally. what surprises you the most about the covid spirit in london in 2020? know, withas you projects, the reaction of the community has been absolutely amazing. have fromt we everyone has been fantastic. that we would get to this level of this pandemic, and there are also people in need. the support from friends,
family, my staff, and the entire london community has been absolutely fantastic. it is a good chance to thank everyone for this because i'm sure there is going to be a lot to do still now and in the future, with charity and helping with the needs in general. francine: do you worry that brexit will change london? london has been where you have made your mark, a vibrant and incredible city. will that change? francesco: i am an extremely positive guy. london will get better. normality,we achieve i think london will be better than before. probably tourist will come back again and london is going to be back to normal. a final question because we were talking about business for until now.
i need to ask you, what is your signature dish? a lot of people don't know what to cook on new year's eve and they have probably not bought anything. what is your signature dish for tonight? francesco: my signature dish for , people think about portuguese. it is going to be a very simple, ,ight tomato sauce with capers generally fry the baccarat -- assemble a nice bruschetta on the side. a dish that everyone can enjoy. francine: that sums perfect. francesco, thank you so much for joining us today -- that sounds perfect. francesco, thank you so much for joining us today. coming up, from a crypto center rally -- we are talking about bitcoin and a various number of things from bitcoin hitting a
francine: this is "bloomberg surveillance." i'm francine lacqua in london. lots of talk about cryptocurrency, bitcoin eating a record, 29,000 dollars before sliding back down slightly. it is another fresh eye for the crypto, which has seen an almost 50% rally in december alone. we are joined by eddie vanderbilt, who has been looking
at bitcoin. extremely knowledgeable. first of all, what does it feel like. is this a rally that will phase out in 2021, or will we see record after record? >> with such high expectations, i hope i don't let you down, francine. we have had a fantastic 2020. up about 300%. but you are right to ask the question because bitcoin is capable of an explosive upside and explosive downside. the year after, 75% losses. so timing bitcoin is pretty critical. i think crypto investors are a -- they soe see i pinching off of supply earlier this year in may. they are hoping that this will run them at least through 2021, but we will see. what triggered the
rally in the first place? had a pinchinge off of supply, which is something that is put into the algorithm. 210,000 blocks is rewarded by a certain number of bitcoin. every look historically, time that has happened we have had a rally. that is not the only thing. bitcoin is more accessible than it has been. places like paypal offering people both the ability to trade it and then also story -- storing the company has also helped. francine: are the buyers changing? i know this is one of the things we have in exploring quite a lot. if the buyers are changing, will they continue to change? isn't it is hard to say,
it? it is really hard to know who is buying anything really. what i can certainly say is that i am getting more calls from managers who are interested -- from fund managers who are interested to know from me what is happening. they say to me that clients are pushing them to find out more about bitcoin. so it feels like it is the wealthy, and that they are looking for a small exposure and hoping for this explosive upside, which can be transformational to a portfolio. would you say that bitcoin has finally grown up? the majorhink that is question, isn't it? it feels a little less like the wild west. there is a futures contract. you are less likely -- you don't need to send your money to an unregistered exchange to trade bitcoin
anymore. there are ways of doing this in a way that would be comfortable for a professional investor. but being a grown up asset class, being right for every portfolio is two different things. bitcoin is still extremely volatile. significant losses can be made. so, yes. francine: all right, thank you so much. eddie van der walt, happy new year. bitcoinr resident watcher on bloomberg. ,e has been an eventful year using a euphemism. what should investors watch out for in 2021? we will talk about that next. this is bloomberg. ♪
>> behind me is one of the two temporary hospitals that was built here in wuhan shortly after the lockdown started. now this one here took in more .han 2000 coronavirus cases half of them critical cases. they were treated here in ,emporary buildings, built in quite famously, under two weeks by chinese construction workers. they are -- nobody that we have here in thes central chinese city. it must have come from somewhere else and there are a variety of
theories, which shows it is really still a mystery as to where and house -- where and how this virus pandemic started. but one year on from where this all started, things are back to normal and people are moving on here. china is also stepping up efforts to distance itself from the virus. after basically shutting the w.h.o. out of wuhan all year, it is now mounting a campaign to count out china being the source of the virus. exhibition about the pandemic is taking place, and it is pretty overwhelming. inside there are expeditions. manikins ofs, military people bringing medical supplies. pictures of xi jinping, and a real emphasis on his role in
containing this pandemic. you can tell that they are really trying to pull the heartstrings and push the narrative of the city and the survive and defeat this virus. >> in many ways, china has little incentive to find out how this all started. with a virus all but eliminated from its own shores, the public anchor of the early concealment and the economy on track to take over the u.s. in 2028. francine: that was a look at
wuhan, once at the center of the virus. 2020 has been a year like no other, and across the world many may wish to say good riddance to it at midnight tonight. 2021 promises to bring hope and new challenges. let's get to guy collins about what is in store. good morning. a cart -- apart from covid elections,y u.s. for will be in store president biden when he takes over? guy: good morning. a lot of attention is on what he will do in his first 100 days. one of the things he says he is going to do is get 100 million vaccinations done. that would speed up considerably the pace that is going on at the moment, and there has been some concern about the relatively slow rollout in the u.s., according to initial data. biden has many other things on his agenda. he wants to rebuild
international relations. organizations that the trump administration was fairly aggressive toward, and biden is going to take a more diplomatic approach on those. he said he is going to roll back some of the trump administration immigration policies and he wants to expand health care under the obamacare program. that is all going to cost money. he says he is going to raise taxes but only on the wealthy, and of course people are watching closely to see hollow -- to see how all of that plans out. francine: there are other elections this year. what are the big ones? big one.any is one people will go to the polls in september. chancellor merkel has been chancellor for almost 16 years now. some of the younger voters in germany have no memory at all of any other leader, so this will be a seachange.
it is very far from clear who will take over for her. the polls show that the center-right will stay in control, but the election is nine months away and anything could happen. we also have a couple of other interesting elections in september. russia has parliamentary elections, and they will be seen as clearly a referendum on vladimir putin, his popularity and his authority. he has been in power for 20 years, so that will be closely monitored. of course, we have the hong kong legislative elections as well. they should have taken place in september of this year but had to be postponed due to the covid pandemic. they will take place in september as well. francine: guy collins of quicktake. we will have plenty more on surveillance. this is bloomberg. ♪
francine: china approves its first vaccine for general use, this as a second u.s. case of the u.k.'s covid-19 variant is detected, this time in california. cutting it close. u.k. lawmakers approve the post-brexit trade deal less than 24 hours before the end of the transition period. the lockdown bites in england. boris johnson imposes tighter restrictions on most of the country, warning of extremely tough months ahead. good morning, everyone, and welcome to "bloomberg surveillance." i'm francine lacqua. happy new year's eve. for everyone on surveillance, we wish you a nice new year's eve and a better 2021. 2020 has had its challenges. we will talk about them now. a couple of things that have come out of it, positive news i guess is stocks. first and foremost, thoughts to people who have lost loved ones this year.