tv Bloomberg Markets Americas Bloomberg December 31, 2020 1:00pm-2:01pm EST
alix: welcome to commodities edge, we focus on the hottest commodities with voices in the business. let's get right to the data. we are looking at the top market stories of the weekend the year. we have to start with bitcoin, the largest digital currency with 29,000 and a record high, this is advanced almost 50% so far in december, on track for the biggest monthly gain since may of 2019. also a bullish u.s. oil inventory, stockpiles falling nearly twice as much as expected, basically due to one supportive data point. but remember that crude is down 20% overall. stock for copper and gold pushing year-to-date gains and nearly 100%. that's close to the s&p 500
stock which has doubled in price during 2020. underlying metal also had a killer year. is poised to top annual gains. is andrew cosgrove. onot of analysts are bullets -- bullish on copper. what's your call. i know sometimes there's a , i think thesus copper prices will end up at the end of 2221 for a variety of reasons. we have seen a number of the biggest deficits developing next year. growth. decent demand that, there'sg of
a real asset. and the chinese really have not participated in the rally. alix: and it wasn't just copper, iron or as well. which has the most -- in 2021. i'm in a go off the radar and say net. policy andre's this there's going to be a pitch point in the second quarter where you see the australian prices converge with the rest of the world outside of australia. you'llthe others of that see big iron ore to a certain extent.
pressurely has some whereas coal is quite the opposite. alix: thank you. that's andrew cosgrove. for commodity and chief where we delve into one topic and one person. we are focusing on venture global. when people say energy independence they think it's about oil but it's also about natural gas. one point 6 billion cubic feet a day. that is how much was exported in 2019. that number could reach 14 billion cubic feet a day by 2025. this is how it works. you have gas traveling from a field, it's loaded onto a tanker and shift did. each facility is called a train. a site could have six or more. it could take up to five years to build and cost millions of dollars. company sign long-term contracts
with someone and they use that cash to fund the development. this canroblem is that cause overruns to read the solution is modular trains. you can build a train to an off-site factory while working on enough people to permit it. when the trains are ready they are loaded onto a tanker. projects from scratch can cost over $2000 a ton. brownfield projects here, while costodular project can $500 per ton and could cut build time by one to two years. one company that does this is venture coble -- venture global who is building these trains in italy. it's planning for 15 million tons a year with three fights on the u.s. gold coast. so far they have six major triers -- buyers under 20 year contracts and charges them less.
competitors charge around three dollars. and it's all because of these cheaper modular trains. if they can make it work it changes the cost of exporting natural gas and leaves some terminal hopes in the trash. i asked about the naysayers that have been confronted over the years. >> the reason we have had a lot in any setting where you have a major disruption, it is incumbent where we have dramatically lowered the cost, and king.djusted cost is and we are dissenter mediating some large players in the market. but overall we are delivering a lower electricity cost for customers. we are displacing massive amounts of coal production. which is good from an emission
standpoint. how have you changed the cost curve? we believe we have lowered the cost of the component of the total cost by at worst 30%. and in a commodity market where people fight and scrap over single percentage improvements, that's a massive change. >> that's enormous. does that mean some of the projects that are trying to get funding will not get it now, do things not get built? or do people have to go back and reconfigure projects? >> we think this will drive change in the industry. we have anticipated it and planned for additional growth. , this isnvestments
what we are currently constructing. we see tremendous demand. confident that we will begin construction. coast,k that on the gulf for sure, you will have to order tor approach in really get funded and in shared. but think ultimately the cost .ill drive it alix: are there any updates on contracts, by deals? >> we have approved our regulatory approvals on the mississippi river. are looking at 2 million ton per annum phases. we think we will likely have that sold out in 2021. we believe that there is a
comingtial shortfall online in the next five to 10 years. we are well-positioned because of the investments we made already to meet the u.s. supply portion of that. we have binding 20 year .ontracts for the next phase we just have a few more to go before we are at the level where we can commence construction. alix: who are the buyers? buyers are shell and bp, i.e. inf italy and pg poland as well as others. customers have been pgnig and edf of france.
>> do still have naysayers? >> when you put the systems on pass as one of the first, and you plug it into your process, it's difficult say it has not been done when it has clearly been done. kicker,w to commodity americans stocked up on a number of foods this year, including pb&j. nuts and seeds have been a major beneficiary of more at home eating. moving 14% in 2020 two nearly 2.7 million dollars. i could tub subpoena better. here's what's on the radar before you go for the next week. on monday, opec-plus continues. on wednesday we have an oil inventory number and the world food price index. that does it for bloomberg's commodities edge. ,atches every thursday at 1:00 happy new year's.
see you in 2021. this is bloomberg. ♪ it's moving day. and while her friends are doing the heavy lifting, jess is busy moving her xfinity internet and tv services. it only takes about a minute. wait, a minute? but what have you been doing for the last two hours? delegating? oh, good one. move your xfinity services without breaking a sweat. now that's simple, easy, awesome. xfinity makes moving easy. go online to transfer your services in about a minute. get started today.
it's 1:00 here in new york, i'm in for vonnie quinn, welcome to bloomberg markets. we are here on the final day of 2020. what a year it has been. right now, you are looking at the s&p 500 at another low-volume this year. year, and byon the some measures this is probably an immeasurable 16% gain on the year. the u.k. stock also closing
earlier. the ftse 100 has an interesting year. closing down despite some optimism about brokering brexit. finishinghe ftse 100 at about 14% or take a look at what's happening on the dollar. this has been the story for a good portion of the year. a profit taking hit. and treasuries right now will close a little earlier in the u.s.. atht now we are looking this, pushing the 10 year yield down to about 91 basis points. all right, ipo's have also big -- i've also been big. more than double last years total. the booming market showing no signs of slowing down into 2021. a lot of questions about evaluation.
guest has been studying this data for quite a few years. ands start with this year expectations, particularly after the code crisis. the general expectation was that ipo's and any public offerings were basically dead and the last three months has complete changed that perspective. outlook was quite different than the last couple of months. . there is a surge of staff and as a result, the money raised this year exceeded the amount of money raised in all previous years combined. for biotech ipos. there were more biotech ipos this year than any previous year
. in december this month, the average first day return was higher than any month since the internet bubble. about theious returns. a lot of people are trying to take -- to make parallels about what has happened. i'm wondering whether the environment today is reflective of the symptoms that we have had . >> there are definitely some similarities. it's not as crazy as it was 20 years ago. you had very young companies with unproven business .odels going public in my mind, there was no doubt whatsoever that a bubble is going on. we have not had a lot
of young small tech companies going public. the tech companies from the u.s. that have gone public have mainly been mature companies that have demonstrated that we have products that customers want to buy. up.valuations have crept this is nowhere near as crazy. you talk about these companies being mature, they certainly have a certain degree of revenue growth. are as the companies high as 80%. does it matter? in the short term, does that matter if the idea is that at some point you will get the earning potential? >> for the biotech companies,
they typically have no revenue and probably will have no revenue from product sales in the next five years. ando to other companies they have mostly been unprofitable. it's very clear for tech companies that investors, whether it's venture capitalists or public market investors are much more likely to focus on gross than worrying about these earnings. romaine: when you look at the listings that came through, and the direct listings, what has been the performance for those who didn't go the traditional ipo route. only threer, companies -- but with the recent hasuncement that the sec approved and the new stock exchange proposal to allow capital raise is when a company does indirect listing, i think
that's a game changer, where we will be seeing more unicorns in particular using this next year. partly because with the severe underpricing this year, companies are leaving a lot of money on the table. $34 billion which about $200 million for the operating company. that's an enormously high company -- cost to go public with the traditional underwriting. romaine: i'm curious as to why we see such mispricing. whether this is really just a lack of understanding of the demands that were out there for the shares? i think for some companies like airbnb and doordash, they strengthened the retail command from the
robinhood crowd has caught investment banks by surprise. where thes interest issuer would like to get a higher offer price, but the underwriter wants to leave money on the table so they can hand out underpriced shares. >> so this comes back to the idea of direct listings. companies that have that type of maturity and revenue growth history, are they going to be in a position where they could maybe say we are going to go to a direct listing, or is there still incentive to rely on the investment bank? >> there are costs and benefits with both. when you hire traditional underwriters, big investment firms typically have coverage for the company. when you are airbnb you don't have to worry about analyst coverage.
lots of analysts will be covering this anyway. your run-of-the-mill biotech company could be getting attention which might add some value. ipo'st expect traditional will be completely disappearing. i think as long as there is severe underpricing, especially companies, itnent looks more attractive. how much did retail traders play a part? the idea that a lot of individual players may not necessarily be a presence in this market five years ago but are actually contributing now. >> they are certainly contributing directly. but also indirectly. because so many of the ipo's have done well in the
aftermarket, some of the funds that have a lot of those ipo's, fundas the first trust ipo , they have had huge inflows of cash from investors this year. so they have to go out and buy recent ipo's. so you have a direct retail retail,nd the indirect so when you get the mutual funds in the etf's that have good performance. of inflowsly a lot early this year tapering off at the end of the year. great to have your thoughts. wishing you a happy new year. still ahead, a lot more coming out, with the ripple effect from our iraqi year from oil.
that's coming up next with the stock of the hour. ♪ when you switch to xfinity mobile, you're choosing to get connected to the most reliable network nationwide, now with 5g included. discover how to save up to $400 a year with shared data starting at $15 a month, or get the lowest price for one line of unlimited. come into your local xfinity store to make the most of your mobile experience. you can shop the latest phones, bring your own device, or trade in for extra savings. stop in or book an appointment to shop safely with peace of mind at your local xfinity store.
romaine: welcome back. this is bloomberg markets. we are taking a look at the energy sector, it's a tough year in the energy space, really a tough year for exxon mobil. you are talking about once the largest company in the world down to 41% along the year. ritika gupta is here. exxon confirming a $20 billion right down. consecutivefourth quarterly loss. this has been a tough year and that's really an understatement. low, but if year there is a bright spot it does expected to improve as the oil
and gas prices start to be covered. there is optimism going in. this has not because much of a price reaction. this has previously warned about this in a report, and you could see this in the overall business. and you can see that this has made up for weaker -- in the upstream division. still down more than 40%. u.s. oilee the top majors as well. this came with the rough rider that we got in oil this year with the global blood supply and demand amid the coronavirus. and all practic -- and this going negative briefly. see a recovery being
expected. withcould be accelerated demand in places like china. and that i think is the crux of the story. romaine: and that's also what your payout. are standing by the dividend for now. it puts into question or makes it more challenging to pay that dividend program. this dividend is 9.5% yields. that's pretty enticing for investors. that's made up for a depressed share. romaine: ♪
returning to washington a day earlier than expected. the white house is not saying why. mr. trump has been at his mar-a-lago home since summer 23rd and has spent much of his time tweeting election fraud. the scheduled change means he will miss the glitzy new year's eve party held annually at his estate. tickets for the event cost as much as $1000 in the past and some guests have already arrived. the new coronavirus variant that emerged in the u.k. is more transmissible and appears to affect a higher proportion of people under 20, according to reports from imperial college london and other science groups. researchers say social distancing measures that work against the earlier strains of the virus are not enough to control the spread of the new variant. german chancellor angela merkel germans to remain disciplined in the fight against the coronavirus as the country battles a renewed rise in cases and fatalities. she says perseverance will be needed during what she called a harsh winter as the vaccination
campaign wraps up. >> there is no way to sugarcoat it. these days and weeks are difficult times for our country, and it will remain so for quite some time. it will be up to all of us for quite a while for how we will get through this pandemic. this winter is tough, and it will remain so. concerns on safety, she said she would get the shot as soon as she returned. this is her last new year's eve address. she is due to step down after the election. global news 24 hours a day on air and number quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm karina mitchell. this is bloomberg. >> from toronto, i'm craig
vanilla. romaine: and i romaine boston. we are joined by our bloomberg audiences and here are the top stories we are following from around the world. the end of a turbulent year. new year's eve celebrations taking place around the world but they look different. the year ahead for the markets. and tesla short-sellers are losing billions. the shares surged 137% this year. a revived push for a bitcoin etf. with an etfship that tracks the cryptocurrency finally off the ground, greg. greg: let's check the markets. pretty quiet. not surprisingly on new year's day. perhaps traders will take it and investors will take it after the year we've had. losses at the end of march, it has been made up particularly on the nasdaq, and the action is rather flat
today. we've had a little strength in the bloomberg u.s. dollar index measured against a basket of currencies. the longer-term story for the year on the u.s. dollar since we got over the turmoil in march has been a downward trajectory. a lot of people said they expected further u.s. dollar weakness into 2021. in canada, we have substantial news. a big story brewing in the province of ontario in the past hour. the finance minister of ontario, the largest province in canada, resigning after it came to light in the last several days that instead of being here in the province during the pandemic under the emergency, he was actually at saint barts on a caribbean vacation, and further angering people was that social accounts made it look like he was here all along. today we got the word from the premier's office basically saying that this is a time when the people of ontario have sacrificed so much.
he says he accepted the finance minister's resignation, saying it is a demonstration that the government takes seriously the obligation to hold themselves to a higher standard. there are still questions asked at the premier, himself, who has admitted he knew that the finance minister was out of the country. these are strange times during a pandemic. pretty tense times. politicale the thoughts and people who are byng asked to do so much officials. of course, we were talking about that gut wrenching follow-up from february to march. made back the losses. we are joined now with a look back on the year with sarah. might expectt we in 2021. sarah: we can all remember viscerally the fastest fall into
a bear market, and then we made it back and then some. the ride we have had in 2020 has really been unbelievable. it is difficult to describe with words. we have seen a change at the end of the year, really per much of the year. what we saw driving the gains, and we kept talking about the narrow market, was mega cap tech, big tech. at one point, we saw a portion of the s&p 500 made up of the biggest five companies hit a record. at the end of the year, we've seen a change. we've seen a rotation. we've seen small caps take the lead read we've seen financial and energy companies take the lead -- the lead. we've seen financial and energy companies take the lead. if you look at how sectors and companies have performed on a year-to-date basis, you still have tech at the top, of 41%, with a discretionary of 32%, communication services up on a 2%, and then you have energy, finance shells at the bottom --
financials at the bottom, so there are still many ways for the companies that are more cyclically oriented and they have plenty of room to make up. even if you look at the worst performing stocks this year, carnival, norwegian, united airlines, they still have not fully caught up. greg: it is interesting. you talk about where people were putting their money earlier this year. the last couple of months has been a lot of talk about the cyclical rotation and the small caps into the best year on an improving economy. not only in the u.s. but worldwide. you look at the outperformance of small caps, particularly in the ref of 2000 here in the u.s. and overseas and a lot of the small, cyclical type companies and emerging markets, what is that telling you now about investor sentiment? sarah: that they are optimistic and there is faith in the recovery going forward. you mentioned small caps this quarter up 31%. that was the best quarter on record for 2000, but credit suisse has highlighted lately
with a note out to investors and clients put out the other day, saying that in their view, the rotation is over. if you slice and dice the outperformance we have seen over the past two months, not full quarter, this opera performance we have seen in valued areas of the market, what he points out is you can chase it -- trace it back to four discrete dates. saw positivee vaccine news and one on the day janet yellen was nominated to be treasury secretary. is the argument going forward on whether or not these are the areas of the market that will continue to lead after the unbelievable two months we have seen, especially given that it seems, at least up until now, investors gravitate back to the name they know so well, big tech. they have not let them down this far as they are well-known with strong cash flows. many things going forward and
focused on digital transformation, automation, the internet, so there is still this war going forward over who is going to outperform when it comes to industry sectors, companies, but certainly the performance we have seen over the last few months and this quarter points to an investor optimism. sometimes it can be an over some litigation but i also think about the russell 2000 been a little more attached to the real economy. that is a criticism of the market. you are happy to see the green on the screen, but at the same time you ask yourself, what was the connection between wall street and main street this year? sarah: that is a question, and what is hard to understand and wrap your mind around if you are not constantly looking at markets and on wall street is you look at the performance we've seen this year. if you base it off of the s&p 500 and companies at the benchmark, we have seen $5 trillion added to market
capitalization this year, a year we have seen millions of people lose their jobs. we've seen people contracting covid-19 and passing away. you have a clear disconnect. we've also seen an increase in wealth inequality. it is hard to square until you look at the underlying of the benchmarks and realize much of them really are made up of companies that have benefited, not just gotten through 2020, but benefited from people working and staying at home. long cap companies are more so tied into the real economy and you can see the increase we have seen, the run-up, the price appreciation we have seen in small caps is helpful and possibly,d inspiring but there is worry about the debt loads a lot of companies have into 2021. romaine: interesting split between what is going on in the ground and in the real economy and markets and whether they are connected. we will leave that up to you. 16% gain s&p right now, camped
this is bloomberg markets. i'm romaine bostick in new york alongside greg pennell in toronto. tesla has been the stock of the year, surging to an unprecedented level, trading at record highs. that is bad news if you are a short seller. short-sellers losing billions on the maker. joining us to talk about this is about this- to talk
is our bloomberg reporter who covers everything tesla. given thaten a run, we had a stock already at a large market cap, for it to sort of rise 700%, to do so in the face of so many challenges and doubts, and not to mention people bidding against stocks, the fact we end up on this day at a record highs is a lot. >> yeah, it has been an extraordinary year for tesla and elon musk. mean, there will always be people doubting the company, but this is the year in this epic battle where the numbers don't lie, and i think what is most interesting is the fact that the percentage of the short has collapsed. it was 20% a year ago and now it is roughly 6%. greg: that is an expensive tray to hold onto when stocks like that work and the other direction. there were a number of catalysts with the big 500,000 vehicle
deliveries at the 2020 mark, including the s&p 500. that works into the run we saw. the question starts to be, and there are still some bearish outlooks and 2021, but another success story for elon musk. ana: yeah, i think there were number of catalysts. the main one is no one foresaw the pandemic. when the factories shut down, there was a real question as to how that was going to impact production and deliveries, with so many people out of work, are people going to buy electric cars, but what this year showed us is despite the pandemic and economic uncertainty, people really do want electric cars. the adoption curve is accelerating. people are now driving because they're worried about taking public transportation. the climate crisis is real. in california we had record wildfires all summer. you are hearing a lot of people say my next car is going to be electric car, a tesla, so quarter after quarter, tesla
broke their previous delivery records. we will not find out about that 500,000 figure until early january but that could be the next catalyst. putting 21 for tesla is all about scaling global operations. they are building a factory in berlin, a factory in austin, texas, continuing to build out the one in shanghai. they have really kind of changed from being this silicon valley startup to a global automaker. that said, they don't deliver the number of cars as competitors, but 500,000 is one to look at considering people thought they would go bankrupt in 2018. romaine: a lot of people have stopped focusing on those numbers and started focusing on the ancillary businesses, such as providing power and a lot of other things. this idea that you cannot really value it as a car company and do it based on how many cars they produce and deliver but there are other connected as this is
that make this company worth what investors think it is worth. dana: that's right. tesla is not just a car company. accelerateon is to clean energy, so they have a whole energy side of the business in which they are selling solar roofs to homeowners and also batteries to utilities and commercial businesses. software as a service is a big part of their business model. you can buy upgrades. they can push out software updates to you after the phone apps. there are a lot of other revenue levers that tesla has control over the coming years besides the sale of cars. that even, i feel though elon musk is always interesting, as of late, i cannot think of him being interesting in a way that was getting shareholders nervous. it seems to be a different elon musk these days. dana: i think he is fundamentally the same person, i just think that 2018 was really
a tight wire act. there were a lot of questions about what was going on in 2018 and the drama of that year was really sort of unparalleled, but this year it is different. they have had five consecutive quarters of profit, potentially six. they have entered the s&p 500. the share price is high. they had no problems raising capital. they have cash on their balance sheet. you are seeing more and more people buying their cars, not just in california but other parts of the country. you know, his board is more diverse, and they are able to pay off their debt. they are in a less precarious position. there were always be risks for the business going forward. they are doing gutsy things, they will try to make their own just the, but i think larger trade is that electric vehicles are here to stay.
now, every other automaker is raising a catch-up with tesla. after doubting them for so many years, people are recognizing that they are in the pulpit this year for brand recognition on vehicles. that will be incredibly challenging for any competitor to attempt to be thrown. on the: less stress corner office over at tesla. greg: let's stick with the tesla story. ark investment management founder had a call on the name back in 2018 and said it was going to hit the $4000 a market share. earlier, she spoke with erik schatzker and they talked about the call. >> i do not read the twitter world of hate notes to me. our marketing department used to send me anything that i needed werespond to, but, no, we
standing up for what we thought was right, and we also were , andished at the backlash i think part of it was elon's personality and the things he was saying on twitter. he is a provocative soul. he is brilliant. he is our renaissance man, and all we did, which is what we should have done in terms of our research is keep our eye on the prize. and the prize had to do with the autonomous taxi network that we theeve tesla will be in pole position to dominate, mostly because of its advantages and artificial intelligence and the amount of data it has collected. and the ai expertise that it has. we cannot believe that no one wanted to listen to this, that
they really just made fun of it. it made me feel even more strongly about tesla because what we saw happen over time as the naysayers were growing was there barriers to entry or tesla's barriers to entry was increasing. their technology on batteries was four years ahead of the competition, especially now that they're going to build the battery into the structure of the car. .hey have the first ai chip no other auto manufacturer has an artificial intelligence chip for autonomous. they now have 15 billion miles of real-world driving collected. closest, hasext about 25 million. romaine: cathie wood there, star of wall street, ark investment manager founder, speaking on bloomberg earlier this month. coming up on the show, bitcoin
this is bloomberg markets. i'm greg pennell in toronto alongside romaine bostick in new york. regulators have been talking about the idea of a bitcoin etf with volatility concerns and liquidity, but it appears now there might be movement on that front. let's bring in clear balentine with more. i bitcoin etf could change the game. : definitely. a bitcoin etf would make it a lot easier for people to invest in bitcoin and make it easier for regular investors to get in and out, and it would really boost the reputation of bitcoin. some industry players say.
so we have seen a bitcoin etf filed for, and they will see if the sec will approve that this year. romaine: if i counted the number of companies who submitted papers to them on this, i would run out of fingers and toes. why will they have a better go at this than other companies? claire: that is very true. so many files have filed for a bitcoin etf and have been turned down. they might be betting that a change in fcc leadership could help their cause. the chairman stepping down, combined with good coin's growing adoption on wall street, have seen a lot more institutional players be interested in it and high-profile money managers support bitcoin, so there may be better odds this time on negative opportunities on it, as will. greg: it feels like this year they got more legitimacy because it does have a history of
boom and bust. people who have played in the space before felt burned by it. and then the same time the wall street money managers made old predictions on where it would head, and it feels a little more bona fide these days. claire: definitely. it has caught the attention of some of the most famous investors, like paul tudor jones and like paypal holdings that are giving it more legitimacy. it is also continuing to break new highs. space fort a prime issuers to say we want to get into this space. romaine: is there any sense that given a lot of the institutional interest that have come on board this year that maybe those folks to get other have leaders to approve these types of funds? claire: there could be. those are positive forces working in their favor, especially, it is helpful to
have some sort of filing in the works that the sec can debate, so i think with vaneck filing this one, it opens the opportunity for there to be more discussion about a bitcoin etf. romaine: claire valentine -- ballentine all over this. bitcoin had a record run this year. from new york and toronto -- greg: this is bloomberg. ♪ . .
transition team from meeting with staff to prepare the president-elect's first annual spending plan. bloomberg has learned the director of the office of management and budget has argued the agency needs to focus on new regulations. officials in wisconsin say a health care employee has admitted to deliberately spoiling 500 doses of a coronavirus vaccine. aurora medical center first reported the doses had been ruined on saturday saying they had been accidentally left out and refrigerated overnight by an employee. says theh system now doses were delivered early ruined. no word yet on possible motive. president xi shipping used his new year's eve address to praise his government's success controlling corona 19 -- covid-19. it is the only major global economy to bo