tv Bloomberg Daybreak Asia Bloomberg February 8, 2021 6:00pm-8:00pm EST
>> good morning, i'm paul allen in sydney. we are coming down to asia's major market opens. shery: i'm shery ahn in new york. our top stories this hour. asian equity investors will look for gains today after japanese markets write record levels in dollar terms. tesla's $1.5 billion vote of confidence sent bitcoin to another record.
mike nova grads thinks it could hit $100,000 this year. softbank post record profit. a surge in stocks lifted the portfolio. my coc son wiped out a chunk of the gains. we are watching anything and every thing to do with the stimulus package in d.c. the house ways and means committee chair releasing the text of the covid relief plan, which comprises half of the $1.9 trillion relief package requested by president biden. the plan would extend unemployment insurance to august 29. this coming at a very busy time for congress. congressional committees are starting to draft the legislation, the specific components of the package. we do have the trump impeachment trial starting on tuesday. paul: we just had the market open here in sydney. currently higher by a few points.
let's get to sophie in hong kong with what to expect. sophie: seeing gains of the 10th of a percent. earnings season is building up. a trading update from mccrory. any new zealand, kiwi market back online after the long weekend. the kiwi dollar is holding overnight gains along with the aussie. we saw that being sparked higher by the rally in crude. earlier today, the rbnz saying it will clampdown on property investors. mortgage lending curbs will be reinstated on march 1 in new zealand. flipping the page i had of the japan open, checking out what is going on with new k futures -- with nikkei futures. futures moving to the upside. socgen saying the market is not looking expensive considering they expect japan will deliver earnings growth of 45% this
year. on s&p minis, little change this after the index rallied for a sixth straight day. we have crude rising very much in focus. this after brent tapped 60 bucks a barrel. new york crude above $58 with bloomberg intelligence saying you need a combination of factors like continued opec supply cuts as well as demand recovery, -- which we may not see until even the second half. shery: we are also watching bitcoin. it is continuing to search after tesla invested ¥1.50 in the cryptocurrency and signaled its intent to start accepting bitcoin as a form of payment. that sent digital assets soaring. the galaxy founder think
sick go much higher. -- think they could go much higher. >> things are happening so much faster than i had prorated. the corporate adoption rate, the institutional adoption rate is accelerating beyond what i had thought about. i think bitcoin could end the year at 100 thousand dollars. shery: let's cross to ed ludlow in san francisco. this gtv chart showing tesla and bitcoin's fate seemed to be linked. this is a huge endorsement. ed: i feel like i talk about bitcoin in association with tesla more than i talk about the alleged vehicles. it is an s&p 500 company. a company of size. no other company of that size has given this kind of endorsement. tesla ended 2020 with $19 billion cash on hand. you also have to remember tesla makes a significant weighting of
the s&p 500. you have all of these passive and index tracking funds that are now exposed to the cryptocurrency through their investment in tesla. you also have to remember tesla disrupted the automotive industry by not using dealerships. it sells directly to customers through the app. the company is also saying they want to be able to allow customers to use bitcoin. there are some caveats around where the law is applicable. it is going to be in a limited way. that is interesting and the context of transacting, which is something consumers do not do. they use it as a speculative investment. paul: this pairing, has it been in the works for a whale? ed: if you follow elon musk on twitter, you would probably say yes. it is a topic elon musk tweets about regularly.
he said during his debut on the clubhouse app last week that he wished he got into bitcoin earlier. he gave this story about where a friend presented him with a bitcoin cake in 2018 and he wished it was at that moment he first invested. at the end at of the day, elon musk is the chief executive of a publicly traded company. there are others out there. tesla's second in terms of mick coin -- a bitcoin -- in terms of bitcoin holdings. they were an early mover, but if you off the comments elon musk has made and track how bitcoin, the price of bitcoin has moved with those comments, i guess it is not a big surprise. shery: which is why some people are saying that could raise some flags for regulators. elon musk would not be new to more regulatory concerns. already in china, we are seeing
regulators summoning tesla over quality issues. the chinese market is one of the most if not the most for tesla. this news is being overshadowed by all of the bitcoin stuff. ed: china is the growth market for tesla. the proportion of revenue, the majority of revenue is coming from outside the u.s. for the first time. china's growth is a part of that story. there are many more players offering many more models. all tesla is often the first, second or third place in terms of deliveries, it is under pressure. the regulators have said to tesla you need to get your act together in terms of compliance and consumer protections. tesla actually responded to this. a representative of the company saying they acknowledge and accept the findings. they say they will do better. that is a communication strategy which tesla does not employ in other jurisdictions. paul: west coast reporter ed
ludlow in san francisco. let's get to karina mitchell for a check of the first word headlines. karina: the world health organization is preparing to leave wuhan after an investigation into the origins of the coronavirus outbreak more than one year ago. the team will analyze findings from that trip and is expected to release details later this week. they visited the institute of her elegy and key hospitals as well as the market at the center of the outbreak. they say they found important clues. lawyers for former president trump have laid out there impeachment defense, arguing the trial is unconstitutional but he did not incite insurrection and that democrats have made similar incendiary remarks. attorneys say the charge should be thrown out because it violates his right to free speech and is constitutionally flawed. they say the case is near political theater. the indian government is calling on farmers to end a in new delhi and elsewhere and to rejoin
talks on controversial agricultural laws. thousands of rural workers had been encamped outside the capital for months in protest of regulations they say favor big corporations. they reject the government's offer to suspend the reforms. protests continue across myanmar after the army imposed mia -- impose martial law. the military wants to ban gatherings of more than five people in response to popular anger at last week's two. the de facto leader and other civilian leaders are in detention. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i'm karina mitchell. this is bloomberg. back to you. paul: just want to get you across market action in australia.
mccoury group shares rising by 6.5%. this after the company giving some full-year guidance. it does expect full-year profits to be slightly down on year because of trading conditions improving in the third quarter. previously, they had said the profit would be significantly down. that was at the end of the first have paired an improvement on significantly down. we are seeing some gains. the bank warning it does say it sees market conditions remaining challenging. shery: coming up next, the market outlook. why she is optimistic about the recovery. is inflation a real risk? the lunar year will look very different in 2021. a ceo tells me where virus restrictions will hit airlines the hardest and what can be done. this is bloomberg. (announcer) back pain hurts, and it's frustrating.
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paul: u.s. and emerging markets stocks rallied on monday as the promise of u.s. stimulus buoyed risk assets. our next guest sees this continuing. joining us now is the chief investment officer sylvia jablonski. we have easy monetary policy stimulus in the pipeline. do you see any near-term risks as the trading continues in washington over the size and delivery of the stimulus? sylvia: i think in the short term, we will probably live with volatility. we have seen that in the last couple of weeks. there are always unforeseen circumstances like gamestop and things like that. if we take the year as a whole and go quarter to quarter, i
would expect improvement in every quarter ahead of us. earnings are looking great. 80% of the names that have reported have beat to the tune of 17% or higher. that has surpassed what analysts estimated. i think that gives the investors some confidence. another good factor to your point, we had this 1.9 trillion that is hanging out there. i do not know we will get the whole thing. we'll probably get some of it. we are still in a recession type of recon and he. until -- type of economy. until the service sector can fully reopen, they are going to need some help. a good amount of americans will need help. pumping that liquidity back into the market will be contingent on that optimism. i do expect that it is going to be a brighter year and the vaccines are becoming more efficient from what we are hearing.
i do think that these are big steps forward for us and the market. paul: they are encouraging signs, but do you think it is too early to start buying up those sectors like the hotel and hospitality sector? sylvia: it is only too early when it is not too late. this is a good time to get into those sectors. there have been a good amount of interest into those sectors. we have seen etf products earlier in the year. we saw some rallies in the big airline etf's and whatnot. they are likely to be priced at a level now that is below where they will be at the end of the summer. if you have some extra cash on your side and you're looking to implement that, looking at the service sector, some of these areas that have been hardest hit. even small caps should benefit a lot from that.
i do think there are some value plays and opportunities. shery: talking about small caps, really outperforming in today's session. this gtv chart showing among small caps, we have seen outperformance of growth sectors. when you take a look at this trade, does that mean before getting into value cyclicals and all the reflation trades, what do you do with the growth names that a lot of investors stockpiled during the pandemic? sylvia: this might be counter to what we hear out there because i think it is certainly reasonable to take gains if you have been in the trade for a long time, but in my mind, you stay the course. all these names we have been speculating whether they are overvalued, microsoft, amazon, apple, alphabet, look at the earnings numbers. they absolutely crushed it. even if we take a step aside from that and look at their
outlooks, so much of what they are doing is in the world of machine learning, cloud computing, they are focused on innovation, technology. the next generation of technology and innovation for the future. those are great names to hold onto. do i think we will get the same 700% growth in tesla or in amazon or apple? i do not know they will be that high, but i would predict those names will hold on tight. investing in high-quality names that have strong balance sheets and a lot of cash to implement, it is never a bad decision. it does not mean you cannot find opportunity for value or other areas. the service sector and cyclicals like that. i think growth has done well by us. shery: that has been the case across asia as well. you are optimistic about chinese tech. i do wonder if there is a where you can invest in etf's without
the regulatory risk. we saw china formally announcing their regulation when it comes to their big tech giants. sylvia: actually thing etf's are a great way to do it. we have seen so many examples of that. we see in stocks where you want to mitigate the risk of a name or two not merging. it is the same thing with china and u.s. technology. investing in -- broad-based etf's like k web or 5g. some of these products they give you access to the small, medium and large size names whether it is domestically or in china gives you a broader based exposures so you don't necessarily participate in the headwinds that one company might face for a regulatory risk. in china, especially the e-commerce consumer is still strong. china had positive gdp in q4
last year. leading the pack this year, there has been so much innovation and a great handling of the virus. i think they are set up to do well and always in the area of growth in technology for china we have seen a lot of those names shine. shery: always great having your thoughts. defines etf chief investment officer. coming up, softbank reports a record profit in its vision fund. the controversial derivative trading wipes out a big chunk of those trades. we break down the numbers next. this is bloomberg. ♪ when you switch to xfinity mobile, you're choosing to get connected to the most reliable network nationwide, now with 5g included. discover how to save up to $300 a year with shared data starting at $15 a month, or get the lowest price for one line of unlimited. come into your local xfinity store to make the most of your mobile experience. you can shop the latest phones, bring your own device,
his controversial trading in derivatives. softbank could make the case the derivatives were for hedging purposes. what did we hear in this earnings report? >> the results were not really a surprise. the billion-dollar record profits, we knew was coming. with uber shares soaring. the real surprise was the laws in the asset management trading unit. 2.7 billion dollars in derivatives trading alone. this is the same amount of loss they took the previous porter. this is a business that masayoshi son has personally started early this year when the stock market crashed. the idea being to find a way to manage some of the excess cash. it is operated by northstar, which has controversially owned one third. one interesting point he did
mention is the business is currently profitable in the quarter. somewhere a round a billion dollar profit. paul: the vision fund approaching the head of the microsoft venture fund. how big of an addition is this to the ranks? >> this comes at a tale of a number of high-level departures. there was the head of the ir. most recently, two managing partners. one who was best known for the greenfield investment. and the investor who invested in doordash and the dog walking apple wag. it is good to have someone with deep experience in investment join. paul: our asia tech reporter. thank you for joining us. let's get back to bitcoin's
supercharged history. michael nova grad says it could reach 100,000 by the end of the year. >> young people are buying into the future. they see cryptocurrency, bitcoin and other crypto's as their currencies. and so e line is a genius because he realized, listen to the people. he is worried about the dollar. it is more of the messaging of what he is doing that is important. soon to be allowing customers to buy into crypto. you will see every company in america do the same thing. >> it looks like it is not just companies doing this. you have the mayor of miami thinking about adopting bitcoin on its balance sheet. according to a tweet he sent out today. how realistic is something like that and are more cities likely to think about it? >> there is a war for talent between companies and cities.
we have this tax arbitrage going on where people move out of new york to miami or austin, texas. you have cities fighting for the best human capital in the world. i am a big new yorker. i think we are continue to track human capital. the miami mayor is smart. we will put some more bitcoin on the balance sheet. it is the messaging that matters. you are seeing the heart here. you have the wealthiest man in the world and one of the biggest stories doing it. you have got to think other ceos are going to say, what should we be doing? >> how are you seeing the likes of does coin doing so well? does he get specifically -- does get split focus and where they were? >> i tweeted last night and i had 10,000 lights within a few hours. the frenzy is back.
i am surprised elon musk has started tweeting about it. i think it is a responsible. bitcoin is built with a purpose. only goal would has store value. in crypto, crypto is going to dominate value. a theory of has a real purpose. decentralized supercomputer if you will. d5 has a purpose. it is going to be derivative trading or a decentralized insurance company or decentralized exchange. it is a lot like gme. the people that buy it are going to lose their money. >> and when we talk about -- so when we talk about the longer-term outlook not only for bitcoin but also the more established crypto assets, there is a lot of talk this is the replacement for what in the old days would be people hoarding
gold or silver. is there a world in your mind that exists where we continue to see appreciation in these crypto assets and also a appreciation in precious metal? >> if we had chairman powell here on the split screen, i would blame him for all of it. lagarde today said we are going to keep the money coming. when you have this monetary policy, people are going to find new ways to store value. baseball cards, basketball cards. collectibles are skyrocketing. we think crypto is having a big move, you should see what the card market has done. you are going to continue to see other ways people hold value appreciate. >> let's talk about value for a second. where should bitcoin be in six-month? where should gold be in six-month? >> that is a good question.
shery: we have breaking news out of japan. we are getting the december labor cash earnings numbers. this is a much smaller contraction than analysts had expected. it is still a plunge for the ninth consecutive month. we'll cash earnings also falling -- real cash earnings also falling. overtime hours falling in contraction territory. much less, a smaller contraction than analysts had expected. corporations cautious when it comes to raising wages.
winter bonuses are usually paid in december. year end bonuses have taken a hit given the coronavirus pandemic. the restrictions and state of emergency has hurt the outlook of these corporations. let's stay in japan because given the pandemic, there is concern the medical cost -- the medical system could collapse under the strain of more infections even though case numbers are comparatively low. our politics reporter is in tokyo. japan has the world's longest living citizens. it has a top-notch health care system. why aren't they able to cope with the pandemic at a time when they do not have as many infections as the rest of the world? >> that is right. it is a bit of a contradictory situation. japan seeing only about 400,000 infections and 600,000 -- and 6000 deaths. the medical unit has been
described as overwhelmed. the situation is the vast majority of japan's hospitals is very small and are privately owned. that works fine in private times -- in normal times. if you want to go down to the corner and pick up your allergy medications, it is convenient. the smaller hospitals are not set up to cope with infectious diseases. only 30% say they can deal with covid. at the same time, they are not well coordinated. we have seen in the u.s. and the e.u. when a particular region becomes hard-hit, you will see doctors and nurses flown in from other areas to help out and that has not happened in japan. there is no coordination. when things get really bad, we have seen the armed forces medical personnel have to step in. overall, there are few doctors in japan surprisingly. compared with other advanced countries.
a lot of hospital beds and the number of hospitals per thousand people is much lower than in many advanced countries. paul: japan has been one of the slower developed nations to begin the vaccine rollout. how is that progressing? >> the reason why they have been slow is in excess of caution. any vaccine that is used in japan has to be tested in japan first. no vaccine has been approved yet. we are expecting approval for the pfizer biontech vaccine in the coming days. the vaccinations should start with key medical personnel sometime around the middle of this month. possibly the 17th of february. after that, they are going to move onto the elderly population and only then will they get on to the general population. people who are under 65. what has been interesting politically is the slowness has
annoyed some people, the voters. the prime minister has been seeing his support rate fall dramatically the past few months. he has appointed the person who is currently japan's most popular politician to head the effort. he is currently the most popular option to take over as leader from the prime minister whose term ends in september. that will be interesting thing to see, how the rep. brady: plays out. a lot of it will depend on how well the vaccine rollout goes. paul: bloomberg's politics reporter in tokyo. the lunar new year holiday kicks off this week as virus concerns continue to loom. before the pandemic, this would have meant hundreds of millions of people traveling. it could be years before the scale of the annual celebration
returns to pre-virus levels. we have taken a look at what to expect the year of the ox. investors expecting bulls in 2021 may find something more pedestrian instead. the year of the ox. fresh iterations of the zodiac animal, luxury gear for the celebration. the party is likely to be muted. new covert outbreaks, lockdowns and quarantines will see more chinese stay put in cities. barred from traveling home where the reunion is customary. the trend is evident in aviation recovery stalling in september. only 40 million passengers flew on the big three airlines in 2020. down 40% on the 400 million a year earlier. the year on your drop in lunar new year travelers may be greater than during the october golden week holiday. high rate travel fell by 20
million passengers per day. the silver lining could be with retail sales for the consensus forecast sees a 29% bump in the first quarter. authorities urging citizens to limit gatherings and shop online may weigh on their desire to spend. some local governments are offering extra wages to workers who do not return to the hometown town for the holiday. it could pay to stay home and wait for vaccine efforts to bear fruit. shery: the head of the international air transport association says the next six months will be terrible for the global airline industry as new covid-19 variants delay travel recovery. alexander tells me he is not worried about chinese carriers. >> china -- the domestic market in chama approach something like
95% of 2019 figures in november. the third domestic market in the world. in december, we saw some outbreaks in china. chinese authorities have strongly encouraged people not to travel during the chinese new year. we are seeing employers paying their employees to work during the vacation because there is a strong demand for industrial goods. we expected that traffic will be much below normal levels, tell 2019 levels. shery: not to mention only in china but other countries we are seeing new virus strains. what do you expect for the northern summer and can carriers survive without the summer revenue? >> what we expect first are a
difficult period during the next six months until summer. everywhere in the world, due to variants, due to new outbreaks, countries have closed their borders. just by the end of the previous year. traffic is down. we do not expect a strong recovery the next five to six months. by mid-2021, due to the progress in vaccinations, we hope they will lift restrictions and traffic will recover. by the end of 2021, we should be around 50% of 2019 levels. that is already an optimistic scenario. shery: what does it mean for the next six month?
what airlines need to raise more cash? will we see more state bailouts? >> we are asking many governments to continue their financial support. they have injected $200 billion in our industry. but we need more because the next six months will be terrible for us. we are asking governments to maintain support. we need 70 to 80 additional billion dollars for the industry. shery: china's airline industry has been supported by domestic travel. we do have the new year holidays for other regions that will be celebrating and do not have the domestic routes. singapore, korea, how will they do? >> they will do as they did. the airlines will ask their government for additional support. what you must know is the chinese new year represents 10% of the revenue of chinese
airlines. just this holiday period. paul: that is the iat ceoa. lang am hospitality group ceo tells us what he thinks no company will emerge from the virus stronger. let's get to karina mitchell for the first word headlines. karina: taiwanese exports had a record in january, boosted by demand for computer chips and companies ordering components. shipments surged 37% to more than 34 billion u.s. dollars. the most data going back to 1991. imports hit all-time highs, rising almost 30%. high-performance computing and 5g demand are driving exports. mario draghi is on course to form a government in italy after he won the support of leading political parties.
a cabinet may be announced later this week ahead of confidence votes. mario draghi italy face a deep recession with the economy contracting almost 10% last year. new zealand is clamping down on property and investors trying to rein in spiraling home prices. the rbnz says it will reinstate mortgage restrictions on march 1 and tighten up burdens for investors are the beginning of may. the government is flagging further measures to curb housing speculation. prices continued to soar in january. bitcoin had a rise after tesla added its backing. the company invested $1.5 billion in the digital coin, signaling its intention to accept the coin as a form of payment for cars. elon musk tweeted that bitcoin is a good thing.
a small rival also surged. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i'm karina mitchell. this is bloomberg. paul: thanks very much. let's check in on how we are trading in australia and what we can expect across the asia pacific. it sophie kamaruddin in hong kong. sophie: focusing on australia with a bunch of earnings out this morning. the asx 200 moving to the downside. it is hoping a two day advance paired i want to highlight some of the big stock movers. suncorp jumping on its first results. improving across its businesses. the regional banking player announced a dividend. better than. puts it on course to beat its implied earnings target for the
third quarter. macquarie group, a solid third quarter. one third of profits coming from commodities and lending. one mover to the downside, that his challenger. following the most since august. coming in below consensus. the company will be on the margin trajectory. a look at some movers in sydney today. shery: will be joined by the suncorp ceo for his first interview at 11:10 a.m. hong kong time. up next, house democrats have released the first draft of key parts of their $1.9 trillion stimulus package. we will break down the plan. this is bloomberg. ♪
shery: house democrats have released the first draft of key parts to the potential $1.9 trillion virus relief legislation. among the measures, plans to increase the federal wimp -- federal minimum wage to $15 an hour by 2025, payroll assistance and billions more for airports and trains. for a look at the prospects and the bottles ahead on capitol hill, let's bring in the trades director of economic policy. always great having you on. give us your take about how much
of all of the spending that is being talked about will find its way to the final bill. >> thanks for having. my expectations as we get close to the $8.9 trillion the democrats proposed. the package is $941 billion in aid. all of which is permitted in the senate. my expectation at the low end would be $1.5 trillion in aid on the next covid package. i could still be coming close to that 1.9 trillion. it will depend on how much they can get through in the senate. the first house bill and the various iterations is going to be the most expensive. we need to be concerned with the senate package, which will hopefully come next week or even later this week depending on how fast the staff moves. i think we are going to get close to 1.9 trillion when all is said and done.
shery: what does this mean politically for what we could expect after the relief bill? will this kill the appetite in congress for the future of fiscal action? is that the trade-off at this point, especially given how much this will cost the echo -- this will cost? >> what we are dealing with right now is an urgent needs based covid stimulus. this is a can to the recovery package we sell from the obama administration in 2009. this is a response to the pandemic. this is not the democrats overall agenda. ths responding to the pandemic that is continuing at the moment. it would be a mistake to conflate democratic policy objectives with justice coronavirus relief bill. this is an urgent need development that has to pass by march 15.
what we see thereafter is going to be a shift to the more traditional democratic approach to policy, which is led by infrastructure focus. the multiplier effect and the job creation that would stem from investments in infrastructure, which the united states needs for its crumbling roads and bridges anyway. we call him amtrak drove for a reason. there is a substantial set of -- it is a just a general policy objective. who have not gotten their jobs back since the pandemic started. the infrastructure project is designed to target that. the multiplier effect is what we should anticipate after this bill. paul: the democrats are also hoping there will be a bipartisan approach to the covid relief bill. was the approach as bipartisan as it could have been and are there any risks going forward? >> i think you hear this from the press secretary often.
just because democrats are using the strategy where they only need 51 votes to pass the bill does not mean republicans cannot join with them to support it. they will say which republicans in republican states do you think do not need unemployment insurance benefits or did not need direct payments or do not need expanded access to the income credit or the tax credit? they say the overall bill is bipartisan because 72% of americans supported. could they have gone with a bill that was a third the size of the overall biden administration ask? yes. as we have heard from treasury secretary yellen at a host of other advisors, they think that would be a mistake. mostly due to the negative ramifications of not acting in a substantial enough fashion to get the economy out of the pandemic. there is nothing that could stop
republicans from voting for this bill. it is just that they do not need them if they want to press ahead alone. paul: simultaneously, the senate is going to embarking -- going to be embarking on the impeachment trial of president trump. is that going to for the drive a wedge between the two major parties? >> i almost feel like the biden administration is keeping the impeachment trial as far away from the covid relief bill as they can. if you are in d.c. politics circles, the two do not cross over except talk about timing. we got some good information from the majority leaders today in the senate to talk about how long the impeachment trial is going to take. it looks likely to go into at least sunday of next week and maybe drive on longer depending on witnesses and who they call forward. things could change and get more acrimonious, but we already know who from the republican party is going to support the impeachment proceedings because of the
amendment that senator rand paul offered at the beginning of this process. we know there is only a handful of republicans who are going to support the impeachment process. those are a lot of the same members that would support the coronavirus relief bill. the biggest impact i think of the impeachment is delaying the speed with which the covid bill can actually pass. it does not seem to be having a tremendous impact on whether or not biden can speak with the 10 republican senators who came to the white house last week. shery: always great having your thoughts. director of economic policy at veda partners. let's turn to japan. the finance minister now speaking in tokyo. he has -- saying the cabinet has approved ¥1.1 trillion of reserve fund used. the funds will be used for virus response measures. this will be around $10.5 billion. japan has already three extra
budgets in order to deal with the fallout of the virus pandemic. they were set to be considering a fourth extra budget. so far, they have committed $3 trillion to help the economy recover. saying the house -- the cabinet has approved ¥1.1 trillion. that would be around 10.5 billion u.s. dollars. he has also talking about the g7, saying they want to discuss building back better. they also want to discuss emerging nation debt and push forward digital taxation talks. the biggest headline would be that they are willing to spend this much more on virus relief measures. around 10.5 billion u.s. dollars. this is bloomberg. ♪
paul: a quick check out the latest business flash headlines. china has some and tesla for talks on quality and safely issues. regulators say they held talks in beijing and shanghai after buyers complained of problems such as abnormal acceleration and batteries catching fire. tesla to protect customers rights. the company says it except the guidance and has taken action. one of the hottest stocks in the
u.s. says the company has no record of business success. blink charging has warned of bankruptcy. investors had driven the stock up 2000% and it the last eight months. it operates uv charging stations. ground results will learn the fate of its sydney casino plan later on tuesday. the state gaming authority investigated allegations including links to crime syndicates at its melbourne and perth casinos. billionaire crown shareholder had a diagnosis of bipolar disorder. shery: we are heading to the opening of japan and south korea . let's turn to sophie for what to watch. sophie: watching asian cryptocurrencies after tesla boosted investment in crypt
trying -- in bitcoin. korean carmakers in focus amid the disappointment around the apple card. u.s. kia in focus as it is to hold is 2021 investors ceo date this afternoon. adrs jumped to a record high overnight on its earnings that be valuation gains. jeffries has raised its target to softbank. pointing out the group is the owner of the most lucrative portfolio amid an ongoing retail ipo frenzy. paul: still to come, more perspective of softbank's earnings. plus, we will have an exclusive interview with the langham hotel 's ceo. we also have the market open in tokyo and seoul next. this is bloomberg.
shery: welcome to daybreak asia from bloomberg's world headquarters in new york. i'm shery ahn. paul: and i'm paul allen in sydney. asia's major market has just opened for trade. asian equity investors with gains after a sixth straight rise on wall street. japanese market already record level in dollar terms. softbank posts a record profit.
masayoshi son wiped out a chunk of that with his trading in derivatives. and we assess the outlook for aviation as we had to lunar new year without china's usual mass migration. for now, let's get a check on the markets of tokyo and seoul just opening. sophie kamaruddin is here with more. sophie: from japan this morning, we got a check on wages. some lines saying the cabinet approved a ¥1.1 trillion reserve fund. japan will be pushing digital currencies. also keeping an eye on asian cryptocurrency stocks after tesla boosted its investment in bitcoin by $1.5 billion. we are seeing stocks gained some ground in tokyo. the nikkei adding 0.2%.
the yen holding steady at 105.20. softbank in focus after it reported a record profit, but it did see losses at its derivative trading businesses. in south korea, we have earnings from there as well. cacao reporting this morning. we are also keeping an eye on vaccine players. astrazeneca reportedly cleared to start delivering the first batch in south korea. the korean won is gaining ground. in australia, some downside pressure but stocks gaining on earnings. we had a trading update from the quarry as well. oil very much in focus. that helped u.s. stocks rally and this morning we are seeing it move slightly to the upside. earnings and reflation in focus today. let's talk -- shery: let's talk
a little more about that. mark, i want to start you off on the reflation trade really dominating the markets. the chart on the bloomberg showing the inflation outlook is at the highest level since 2014. the yield curve also hitting the steepest since 2015. this takes me to, you guys have this question of the day. how much inflation is too much? >> we will probably only find out the real answer after the event, but as you were saying, for the time being, traders seem to be more interested in it being reflation than damaging inflation. for now people are seeing it as a good thing. equities are rising at the same time as the u.s. yield curve is steepening. we are getting something like the situation we saw four years ago, where even though the
bond market is a bit jittery about higher yields, that is good for the global economy. because we are getting the distribution of vaccines, we see improving economic growth in 2021. that is pushing up long-term yields, but not at the pace which is damaging for risk assets in general. we do have to watch the inflation data, particularly from the united states. nothing too much is expected in the very near term, but we are gradually seeing, particularly in food and some other areas, energy sector as well, we are starting to see price increases. eventually it will feed back into the general population. people will be affected by this. all the factors that go into making up people's basket of
goods that they do on a daily basis. it is early days yet. central banks saying, i don't mind seeing inflation run a little hot, but there will be a tipping point. it could come at some stage this year. it could be that the equity market will be the one which gives us that indication. paul: just while you've been speaking, we've seen bitcoin breakthrough $47,000. it has rallied 5% since we started broadcasting. michael nova gretz seems to think we haven't seen anything yet. let's listen to what he had to say. >> i thought bitcoin would end the year at 50,000 or 60,000. things are happening faster than i expected. the corporate adoption rate, the institutional adoption rate, is accelerating. i think bitcoin could end the year at $100,000.
paul: what is going on? are we seeing futures contracts enhancing the rally? mark: ironically, one of the things the futures contract does is make it easier for people to short an asset. in the past, it was fairly difficult to go short on bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. we now have a futures contract from yesterday. now you can short ether or bitcoin on the futures exchange and that might make a short squeeze more likely than it was before. that probably adds to the potential for these cryptocurrencies to get stronger. the current move has more to do with tesla. tesla has invested directly and said it will accept payment for bitcoin. that has to do with this extraordinary again today. the futures contracts, when they become more liquid, bitcoin futures are starting to show some reasonable size.
as more people get involved and they trade the difference between the various crypto's, that will add fuel to what is already a very large market. we heard from japan that they want to discuss cryptocurrencies at the next g7 meeting. this is adding to people's interest and the sustainability of trading. it doesn't give us any clue as to the direction of whether the currency should be stronger or weaker, but it does add to the volatility. today is a good example of how when one major player gets involved, when you have various assets trying to do this, the currencies can get pretty crazy. paul: mark cranfield in singapore. you can follow more on bitcoin and all the days trading on our blog and you can find it on the bloomberg at mliv.
you can find out what is affecting your investments right now. right now let's get to karina mitchell. karina: the world health organization is preparing to leave wuhan after an investigation into the origins of the coronavirus outbreak. the team will analyze findings from the trip and is expected to release details later this week. the institute -- visited the institute and key hospitals and say they found important clues. the people's bank of china says stability is its focus, adding it won't make any sharp turns. policy will be precise yet flexible, with stability a priority. the pboc says it will monitor the relationship between economic recovery and the prevention of risk and described a virtuous cycle. protests continue across myanmar after the army impose martial law and overnight curfew.
the military also wants to ban gatherings of more than five people. myanmar's de facto leader, aung san suu kyi, and civilian leaders, are in detention as the army disputes the election. taiwanese exports hit a record in january, boosted by demand for computer chips and companies ordering components ahead of the neuner -- lunar new year holiday. imports also hit an all-time high, rising almost 30%. high-performance computing and 5g demand are also driving exports. global news, 24 hours a day, on-air and at quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am karina mitchell. this is bloomberg. back to you. shery: still ahead, we have an exclusive interview with
paul: let's check in on shares in softbank, rising right now in tokyo, higher by 5% and on target to hit their highest close since the year 2000. softbank shares gaining impressively. this is after the bank reported a record profit for the vision fund. it was not that long ago that things looked more bleak for softbank. to discuss the results, we've got dan baker joining us now.
dan, you've increased your softbank fair value estimate. morningstar just got the two star estimate. bloomberg interprets that as a sale. i know you have a different way of rating things. how likely do you think it is going to be that softbank captures the three star rating? dan: it is possible in the future, but it is only relative rate recently that the share price has gone through that fair value. for most of the past four or five years, softbank has traded a huge discount, and during that time investors talked about the balance sheet, the lack of vision fund visibility, and the lack of diversification in the portfolio. we never saw it that risky mainly because of alibaba as a backstop. we had it at a four or five star rating.
but that discount has narrowed dramatically. partly because of cells and buybacks, but also because we are in a huge technology bull market. from its lows in march last year, the nasdaq has doubled, and softbank's leverage increased in valuation. softbank itself is up 3.5 times from last year. at the same time, alibaba is over 40% over the same period. i guess the question is, what should the discount be, or should it traded at a premium rather than a discount? in previous company presentations, mr. son highlighted the discount to the valuation it was trading at. yesterday he was describing the business as a goose that laid golden eggs, with the eggs being companies with an ipo of over 10
billion japanese yen. softbank has added value to those investments. when the market is doing what it is now and vision fund is performing, that might well happen, but they may end up being a premium for softbank. it probably isn't sustainable. the vision fund performance probably won't stay this positive. paul: all right, just want to talk about something masayoshi son didn't mention. that is we work. that has really gone down the memory hole. what is your outlook for that struggling part of the business? dan: we don't really put any value on it in our valuation of softbank. it is hard to know what the
outlook is. it doesn't get a lot of exposure now. he was asked a question about it in one of the conference calls, but there's not much talk about it. i think that investment was probably -- it probably should never have been made because it wasn't really part of the mandate. it is not really a tech or ai company. it is hard to believe we will see another investment like wework again. shery: you mentioned that softbank has taken advantage of the pandemic tech rally we have seen. will we see fatigue set in sometime soon if softbank doesn't do more or better in some areas that it is really week, especially when they are dabbling with derivatives and things that can cut into their bottom line? dan: i think they were asked a
question about derivatives on the conference call. they are still leaving that door open. i think they are playing around with it a little bit. their investment isn't big enough to make a huge difference to softbank. i think using the northstar fund is almost like a short-term cash fund. if they have some cash, probably mostly in long equities, and then they can sell off pretty quickly because they haven't got big stakes relative to the size of those companies in their portfolio. the real test for the vision fund, for softbank, will be how it goes when the market is flat to slightly down. i guess we will see how it goes when that happens.
obviously it is easy for the vision fund to make money when you invest in a company for a couple years and then the market doubles or triples and you can sell it. but if the market isn't doing that, we will see. shery: dan baker, great to have your thoughts. coming up, martial law is declared in myanmar following a third day of protests. we will have more on that next. this is bloomberg. ♪
philip: it has been inflamed quite a lot, these protests. they have been calling for the release of aung san suu kyi as well as demanding the military respect the 2020 election results as well as the withdrawal of military from politics. they've had a hold on the country for several decades. this latest move escalates the matter. there no signs of slowing. these protests have spread throughout the country. yesterday we saw the first signs of police threats in the capital. we expect the situation to continue on this trajectory for a while. paul: what is the latest with the protests? we have seen in the past that the military is unafraid when it comes to cracking down. philip: yes.
the protesters are no strangers to this kind of action. this happened in 2007 and in the 1988 uprising. they will likely continue to take to the streets. they have many of the same leaders in the protest as they've had in the past. now we are seeing new generations. it looks a lot like the multi alliance democratic protests we've seen in hong kong and thailand. and once again, it looks to be kind of, the pace is picking up steadily over time. shery: philip there with the latest on myanmar. a typical -- was an early investor with a $40 million bet that is now worth about $12 billion. he told our sophie kamaruddin
what she thinks is the next big thing in china's tech scene and what she looks for in a founder. >> i always say that any founder is asking for -- [indiscernible] in this case, they are two great cofounders. [indiscernible] in terms of the engineering delivery of the product. sophie: what is the next big thing in your view when it comes to the chinese tech scene? >> we look for technologies that would address the aging population. for example, we recently invested in a company that is a complete redesign of the hearing
aid. i also think robotics is another thing that we are focused on. one of the things we focused on specifically, robotics to replace dangerous jobs. given china's medical health care investments, it is not keeping pace -- is going to be picking up faster and faster. sophie: how would you compare the vc space in china now versus when you first began? >> actually i had the good fortune of experiencing chinese
venture capital investment in two major ways. the first was what we call pc-based internet startups. at that time, china was more of a copy of the u.s. model. in the u.s. you have google. china has baidu. you have amazon. china has alibaba. tencent is actually a unique business model. tencent was actually -- [indiscernible] as you move down to what i call the second wave of internet, which is mobile internet, that emerged about eight years ago.
because of china's large base of mobile users and because of pc penetration behind the u.s., many people leapfrog into mobile internet. china's mobile internet is ahead of the u.s. for example, tencent is amazing user experience, but in the u.s., there's not quite an equivalent company on the mobile side. because mobile internet leadership in china, like tiktok , is able to penetrate in the u.s. market because they have done this in china already. and after they bought musically,
which is one of the companies -- it is the launchpad to build tiktok on top of it. sophie: are there any missing out, a player like show me? >> i often tell my friends -- [indiscernible] i have missed even more great opportunities. paul: that is ruby lu speaking exclusively with sophie kamaruddin. coming up next, we will be joined by the ceo of the langham
paul: just getting a national australia business confidence numbers for the month of january. business confidence rising by five points to 10 points. that is still well above average. conditions easing nine points from january. business conditions, seven points now. that is still well above average with the exception of recreational and personal, which remains strong. the broader a sx weaker by 0.5%.
a closer look at what is going on in the markets now, let's get to sophie kamaruddin in hong kong. sophie: alongside aussie stocks, you have shares in new zealand heading lower and the nikkei's gains have been erased for the day. the kospi outlier here gaining ground with chips and auto players helping lead the index. plenty of earnings this morning. we have softbank in focus, rallying on its earnings beat. its price target above ¥10,000 for the stock. this player gaining ground. bandai namco on the downside here. while boosting its dividend forecast, it did missed estimates. we are seeing some crypto names rallying. monex gaining ground.
bitcoin continuing to advance, touching 47,000 for the first time. shery: lunar new year kicks off this weekend virus concerns continue to loom. before the pandemic this would have meant hundreds of millions of people traveling and spending. it may be years before the scale of the annual celebration returns to pre-virus levels. >> investors expecting bulls in 2021 may find something more pedestrian, the year of the ox. a diligent, hard-working, and cautious beast. fresh iterations of the zodiac animal embossed luxury gear for the new year celebration, but the party is likely to be muted. new outbreaks, lockdowns, and quarantines will see mo chinese stay put in cities, barred from traveling home where family reunion is customary.
the trend is evident in mainland aviation, stalling in december. passengers flying down 40% from a year earlier. and the year on year drop may be even greater than in octobers golden week holiday according to bloomberg intelligence. highway travel fell. the silver lining could be with retail sales. consensus forecast sees a 29% bump in the first quarter. authorities are urging citizens to limit gatherings and shop online. that may weigh on their desire to spend. some local governments even offering extra wages to workers who don't return to their home towns. it could pay to stay home and wait for vaccine efforts to bear fruit. shery: the hospitality industry is coming off its worst year in modern history.
the sector will be permanently altered by the pandemic. to discuss how one hotel group is handling the challenge, we are joined by stefan leser. thank you for your time. the pandemic has affected the way you do business. how are you changing right now and how do you plan to adjust? stefan: good evening, good morning. 2020 has changed the way we do business for a certain period, for a certain sector of what we are doing. we saw some recovery early on in china where the pandemic was under control. we could see that there's domestic business happening. there was no international travel. the recovery has come to a hold right now. what we see is that the domestic business has gained in relevance and we need to focus on that.
i don't think that we have a clear vision in terms of when international travel will actually come back. we are interconnected. we are depending on the air capacity that is out there as well as when the vaccination rollouts actually happen to an extent that some more movement is possible. what we've seen our trends that i think are here to stay. i think hybrid meetings is something we will see for the time being and for the future. until really long distance cross-border travel will happen. shery: you are still profitable in china, right? what are you expecting during this chinese new year, because restrictions are still in place? stefan: i think that even in between state travel is restricted. we are focused on providing the best possible experience for our
guests. we came up with a new term in the last year, stake asian, and making sure we offer -- staycation and making sure we offer guests a way to experience the hotel in a new way. we use to host people that come from different cities, different regions, different countries, and they have different needs. we have a very different conversation going on with u.s. clients. these are things that are there and we have to make sure we grab all the business that is out there in terms of making sure that the life of our hotels and employees is impacted as slow as possible. paul: you have said previously that nobody gets out of this stronger, they get out of it different. in two years time when hopefully the pandemic is but a memory,
what does your business look like? stefan: i guess getting out of this stronger right now would feel almost as an insult if you are a small business owner. right now you are very much impacted. we are different because, and we need to be different because we are making experiences that will hopefully carry on and change the way we do things. we've changed jobs. we've looked at the way we have communications and interactions with our guests. it is very important to take on those learnings. normally when you open a hotel, you are there and you are open for 24 hours, seven days a week, 300 65 days a year. using that time right now to make those changes, to look at how we do the business and come out in a different way, is the
positive part. but i wouldn't say that it is something you got out of this stronger. that is the way i would phrase that. paul: you are also looking at european cities to expand into. it does seem rather bold. is this the time to be making those decisions? stefan: i guess it is the time. for us as a group, we have euro best as one of our expansion areas on the map, as well as resorts, where we lack a footprint in the resort category as well. but europe is the most important travel destination, the most diverse travel destination, and we only have basically our flagship so far in london, and we have announced last year, we opened up a little residence in munich, as well as we announced
that we are growing and building a new resort in venice. for us, having a strong customer base in australia, china, and the u.s., europe is a very important market. and making those decisions right now, i think, is a timely point. shery: you've been in active talks with governments, especially in the u.k., going so far as advocating for a minister of hospitality. how far have you gotten? stefan: i think it is important that we have greater visibility for our industry. the hospitality employees in the u.k. 2.3 million people and is producing about 130 billion as one of the largest private sectors there, and pays about 40 billion pounds in taxes. we feel that we don't have a seat at the table where we get
heard in terms of the impacts of some of the measures we see right now. and i'm not only talking about us as a bigger group, but the individual businesses and business owners. we need to make sure that the livelihood of the cities remains because that is what makes it attractive. we started that in hong kong about a year ago. we came together to collaborate and say -- we were basically sitting together and saying, how can we make sure the governments understand the consequences of some of those blunt and heavy-handed measures, to make sure the impact on those businesses is felt? shery: with the rise of new variants around the world and the pace of vaccination rollouts , what is your calculation of which markets will come back first? stefan: what we see is an
increase in volatility. we saw that china came back in april and may last year. we were busy, sometimes 100% in our hotels. now, with some cases returning, that volatility has increased. in australia, if you look at melbourne, within 24 hours we had the news of the border between new south wales and victoria opening, and basically within 24 hours, there was this one case around one hotel in australia. so i would make no predictions in terms of how far and how quick we get out of this. the thing that is important is that we get the vaccinations, and we need to look for more targeted measures to have some of those businesses that could
come back returning. i'm just out of a 21 day quarantine in hong kong and that makes international business travel basically impossible. shery: stefan leser, thank you for your insights into that. in fact, let's talk a little more about the travel outlook that he mentioned. i had of the international transportation association told me he's not worried about chinese carriers in that drop off. >> china has successfully managed the virus in spring 2020. the domestic market in china approached something like 95% of 2019 in november. [indiscernible]
authorities strongly encouraged people not to travel. we have seen employers paying their employees to work during that vacation because there is a strong demand. we expect that traffic will be much below normal levels. shery: not to mention that in other countries, we are seeing new virus strains, right? what do you expect for the northern summer, and can carriers survive without the summer revenue? >> what we expect first is a difficult period during the next six months. due to the new outbreaks,
countries have closed their borders again or have travel restrictions stricter than they were. [indiscernible] we do not expect a strong recovery in the next five or six months. we hope that things will lift. and by the end of 2021, we should be around 50% of 2019 levels. that is already an optimistic scenario. shery: what does it mean for the next six months? will we see more state bailouts? >> we are asking many governments to continue their financial support.
they have injected $200 billion in our industry, but we need more because the next six months will be terrible for us. shery: china's airline industry has been supported by domestic travel. we do have the new year holidays for other regions that will be celebrating. how will they do? >> [indiscernible]
its intention to accept bitcoin as payment for cars. ceo elon musk tweeted that bitcoin is a good thing. smaller rival dogecoin also rose. lawyers for former president trump have laid out their impeachment offense, arguing the trial is unconstitutional, that he didn't incite insurrection, and that democrats have made similar incendiary remarks. they say the charge should be thrown out because it violates his right to free speech. they say the democrats' case is political theater. the government is calling on farmers to end protests in new delhi and elsewhere and rejoin talks. thousands of rural workers have been camped out by the capital for months in protest at regulations they say favor big corporations and may mean ruin for smaller farms. they reject the government's
offer to suspend reforms. new zealand is cracking down on property investors trying to rein in spiraling home prices. they will reinstate mortgage restrictions and tighten them further for the start of may. the government is also flagging further measures to curb home speculation. global news, 24 hours a day, on-air and at bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm karina mitchell. paul: the experimental single-dose coronavirus vaccine has shown and efficacy rate of just over 65%. that adds another candidate to developers playing catch-up to western rivals on the speed of travels -- trials in the efficacy rate. rachel chang joins us now. can you tell us more about this vaccine?
rachel: this is china's third vaccine. what we know is that it is 65% effective at preventing symptomatic disease and 90% effective at preventing severe disease. this definitely clears the bar which is 50% effective, and it is a single shot, which basically cuts the work in half. one shot, people go out with a high level of protection. the who has said that a 70% effective single shot vaccine is as valuable as a two-does regimen with 90% efficacy. a single shot vaccine can be very important. shery: china seems to be pushing back their 50 million vaccine target. rachel: that's right.
what they are using is the two previous vaccines which are both double shot. what we do see in china is that there is widespread hesitation. in china, life has been pretty normal for people for months now. they do not feel covid is a threat the way people in the west are feeling. so there's hesitation. and also there's been publicity over negative side effects of the western vaccines. the media shot themselves in the foot by talking about negative side effects in the western vaccine. we are seeing that hesitation. shery: rachel chang there. tune into bloomberg radio to hear more from the big newsmakers and get in-depth analysis from the daybreak team broadcasting live from hong kong. plenty more ahead. stay with us. ♪
a court in india is allowing a 3 billion-dollar deal that amazon tried to scuttle. it is lifting an order restraining the group from selling retail assets despite amazon's opposition. lawyers have told the high court that the company could go bankrupt if the reliance deal were to fail. kkr deployed a record $12.5 billion in the third quarter, finding buying opportunities in the turbulence of the covid pandemic. new york-based kkr also reports record fundraising for the year, taking in about $44 billion. private equity firms have been bringing in cash at a rapid pace and kkr has been among the most active dealmakers. crown resorts will learn the fate of its sydney casino plans later tuesday. a state gaming authority
investigated allegations including links to crime syndicates at its melbourne and perth casinos. paul: let's check in on how trading is unfolding. sophie kamaruddin in hong kong. sophie: keeping an eye on geely shares after gains in january which was a good start despite lockdowns. semi optical also had a good start, raising its price target. and keeping an eye on macau casino operators after five of them were upgraded to overweight at j.p. morgan. analysts noting that a likely disappointing lunar new year will clear the deck for stocks. with jp morgan seeing demand bottoming out soon and profits normalizing, that macy macau gaming stocks return to
pre-covid levels. until that improvement, macau will continue to see scant arrivals, especially with the big dent we've seen in travel within and outside of china. shery: coming up on bloomberg markets china open, more on that drop off in travel this holiday season. steve gives us his aviation outlook. plus, why e.m. equities will lead the way this year. that's it from daybreak: asia. our markets coverage continues as we look ahead to the start of trading shanghai and shenzhen. we are seeing asian markets slightly higher with japanese stocks at the highest since 1990. standby for bloomberg markets china open. this is bloomberg. ♪
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