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tv   Bloomberg Surveillance  Bloomberg  February 9, 2021 5:00am-6:00am EST

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record after tesla's bet on the cryptocurrency. mike novogratz sees the price doubling to $100,000 by year end. the global equity rally takes a breather as investors mull stimulus prospects and the impact of rising inflation expectations. and donald trump's second impeachment trial starts in the senate today. he faces a charge of inciting the january 6 insurrection on the capitol. conviction is low. good morning and welcome to "bloomberg surveillance." i'm francine lacqua in london, tom keene in new york. i know we look at politics, we look at what is happening with the european central bank, but i would suggest that we go markets to markets today. looking at the u.s. junk bond yield, they capture the imagination edition -- the imagination of a lot of the markets today. you wonder how much more risk with -- how much more risk people are willing to take on. tom: a continuation of 2020 come as you say, the bloomberg index
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under 4%. the bitcoin surge is part of the game, but the markets show that effect of a reflation from a trillion dollar stimulus, and frankly, a global stimulus. francine: a global stimulus. it is clear that if you look at the amount of stimulus in europe versus the u.s., the u.s. will feel a lot of the reflation trade before anyone else. let's get to first word news in new york city with ritika gupta. ritika: there has never been a day like this in the senate. donald trump faces an unprecedented second impeachment trial beginning today, starting with the debate on whether the proceeding is constitutional. then tomorrow, the impeachment managers and trump's defense team, each will begin up to 16 hours of presentation. the former president is virtually assured of an acquittal. house democrats want to limit the next round of stimulus checks to households earning
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less than $200,000. that is after president biden's $1.9 trillion puzzle is said to bennett -- proposal is said to benefit the rich. thousands of pros testers -- protesters in myanmar protesting against last week's military coup. the new regime has declared martial law. bitcoin kept rising today after soaring over $48,000 level for the first time. tesla reveals it had but 1.5 billion of the largest cryptocurrency. the company also said it would accept bitcoin as a form of payment for its electric cars. global news 24 hours a day, on air and at bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries, i am ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. tom? tom: thank you so much. equities turning at levels, 39.0
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five. the vix not doing much yesterday. we did not see the vix coming with a better equity market. 21.84. yields come back a little bit, the two heavier comes up from a .10 to a .11 handle. the real yield, a -1.06. that indicates inflation expectations. oil won't stop come and gold, 1848 per ounce. francine: you cannot -- this is where the conversation is going over. global equities are ok. they are taking a pause for breadth, a lot of the impact of rising expectations as stocks rose the last couple of days. there is a breather, but i am
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trying to look at the u.s. junk bond yield dropping below four point set -- dropping below 1.4%. -- below 4% for the first time ever. this keepsg in the asset class historically known for high yields. joining us to talk about the markets and reflation trade and where it ends, if it ends this year, is rbc capital markets little head of -- capital markets had a strategy. when you look at the reflation trade, what does it mean for dollar going forward? >> i think we have already seen a bit of a pullback from the extreme bearishness at the tail end of last year. as far as i am concerned, the dollar outlook for 2021 is still very much a cyclical story, and i think a lot of people who were
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expecting this across the board dollar selloff were not factoring in the strength of the u.s. recovery and how much global demand is driven by the u.s. at the moment. that is not to say that the dollar is rallying against separate things across the board, but suddenly i have -- it is constructive out of the common dollar, particularly against currencies and coming off the week positioning that we saw at the start of the year. francine: will there be a concern for the administration? elsa: i think a lot of people focus on what the central bank administration, governments can or cannot do for a currency, but the reality is that what a lot of the currency will do is determined by nominal interest rates, rate expectations, fiscal stimulus that will be pumped in, and i certainly don't think the new biden administration would prioritize what the outlook of the dollar is going to be over and above any other policy implication, policy tilt. so, yes, and be some people will
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complain about the strength of the dollar the same way the ecb has been complaining about the strength of the euro, but the reality is that policy will not radically change, just set the level of the currency. tom: what is the most interesting yield dynamic right now for you? elsa: i think we have seen a little of it play out already where the dollar bounced pretty much everything across the board, on the back of yields rising. that is beginning to pull back a little bit, and i think suddenly the speed of the move in the last few weeks will -- caught a few people off guard. going forward, it becomes harder to trade. we are looking for tactical reversals, sterling, and just selectively looking for some -- rather than across-the-board long dollar or short dollar. we want to do -- tom: we want to do count sterling. elsa lignos, i look at the call for week -- for weak dollar.
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particular the japanese yen, which is not talked about enough. it just can't get going. why is that on the inside of things? elsa: i think when looking at dollar-yen the thing to focus on is very much the yield story in the u.s. i take a step back and say actually for dollar-yen, what matters more is what is happening at the front end rather than the back end. a colleague has done a lot of work on the hedging behavior of japanese investors, and while they have increased to hedge investments over the last year, i expect that to increase further. so i set the yen apart. where i think the yen, the yield story plays out much more explicitly is in the dollar versus other g10 currencies, whether that is the euro, the australian dollar, pound sterling, or even em currencies as well.
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francine: what do you do with pound? it seems boris johnson for the moment has turned the covid story around, getting ahead of the curve in terms of vaccinations. how long can it support it for? elsa: that has definitely been the theme in client conversations in recent weeks, and i think for the next few weeks the u.k. will have that vaccine advantage. in fact, we looked at interesting work done by an analytics company saying the u.k. was going to be one of the first companies in -- first country seen g10 to reach herd immunity because a vaccination. not the first. that goes to canada. it has been slow starting, but certainly the largest number of vaccines per capita. you may see canada leapfrogging into first place at some point. but as far as sterling is concerned, while the vaccine story is -- we are getting to the point where some of the anecdotal data is pointing to a lot more weakness, particularly
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with the december-january lockdown. we are tactically short sterling this week and we enter the position yesterday and we are looking for retracement on the strength of the pound year to date. francine: what about euro? i guess euro also has more problems for possible inflation expectations as it rises here for ecb. elsa: it comes back to what we were discussing before, which is what can we really do about it. the answer is not very much. we have pretty much reached the limit of what they can do with policy rates, and they can talk about the currency, they can jawbone, and markets are likely to look through that. from the point of view of the ecb, i would expect markets to do the work for them, and that is to say the cyclical story is not great in the euro area. they will be one of the last to get to herd immunity with vaccinations, so they will find
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that the euro naturally falls behind, just as other countries cyclically will ahead. tom: what do you play against euro? if you have a conviction on euro, and particularly weak euro, what currency do you play against? elsa: one i have been watching for a while and we have been putting it position on his euro card, that the -- the canadian dollar versus the swedish krona. euro-dollar to some degree, unless you are happy to play ranges and pick your moments. you have seen it in the less 48 hours, you can have the right view longer-term and get squeezed out in one direction, were equally you can pick your level well and make money. it is not my favorite way of playing europe, i will be honest. tom: elsa lignos is with us. she will continue with us. sterling rocketing out to 1.37,
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all most 1.38 this morning. coming up, a really important conversation. robert kaplan. do you think mike mckeon -- mike mckee will ask him about it going? i would. the world health organization gives a briefing in wuhan. this is important. peter ben and mark is doing it. it is a briefing on the virus. this is sensitive. please stay with us. this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> a new surge in covid-19 cases, the street containment
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measures are significant downside risk to the euro area economic activity. output remains well below pre-pandemic levels, and uncertainty about how the pandemic will evolve remains high. it remains crucial that monetary and fiscal policy continue to work hand-in-hand. fiscal policy, both at the national and at the european levels, remains crucial to both the recovery in the euro area and address the impact of the pandemic. tom: christine lagarde in the discussion of modeling the e.u. forward, and he gets that across the channel, across the north sea, the united kingdom. elsa lignos is still with us. his sterling broken with a weak trend since 2009? elsa: i would not go that far, tom. it has had a strong start to the year. a number of stars have lined up for sterling, the fact that we
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did get a deal is good news. and the fact that the u.k. has been very quick off the vaccination. but there are still a lot of challenges to come, and we are beginning to see some signs of that filtering out through the data. tom: the sorting out through the data, and as you mentioned, you can see a pullback in the currency. but it comes down to big figure shifts. the weak dollar, maybe the global moment of this. do you model for big figure shifts in sterling, or is it a nuance post-brexit? elsa: i think if you are taking a step back and thinking about the more structural approach to sterling, there are a couple of things that concern us. first is that the u.k. is running quite sizable deficits. unlike the u.s., where people love to talk about deficits, but there is still a lot of funding for the -- domestic funding for the budget deficit. in the u.k. is not quite as clear-cut. the second is, what happens with
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the trade front. we have seen anecdotal evidence published over the weekend in u.k. media around trade and in january -- trade in january, post leaving the single market. it is the kind of thing that will just drip, drip over the next few years, where you will see a trend away from production in the u.k. and more toward within the e.u. francine: where do you -- or what do you do with renminbi? we don't 100% know what the biden administration is willing or not willing to do with china. elsa: i think that is a great question because, you know, i think most people have accepted that nobody is going to turn course on china, so to speak, but we are expecting quite a different approach from the biden administration, as far as the tools that are used or the rhetoric that surrounds it. the risk, i think, is that the
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biden administration is a lot tougher than markets are pricing in at the moment, and it could play out in a number of ways. risk assets in general, particular when i think about the risk proxies in asia that have benefited the last year. francine: how do we view china domestically? do we need to focus on more income inequalities within the country to understand what pboc could focus on? elsa: i think one thing to keep a close eye on his credit growth within china. we just saw figures in january. they are strong, but that is what you would expect -- seasonally, they are probably not as strong as they would have been this time of year. so beginning to think about reining in credit growth, focusing on financial capability concerns. if that is the case, you can see a pullback through the year.
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tom: i must focus on 37,000 on bitcoin. bitcoin wonders from -- wanders from mining. how do i buy a car with something that is not legal tender? elsa: it is an interesting question. in theory, i could set up a car dealership and except anything in return. i can accept bananas or birthday cake. in practice, there is a reason why we accept money, because it is a convenient means of exchange. nothing is preventing the private sector from accepting bitcoin and encouraging bitcoin and sections. the problem becomes that government is not accepting it. for tax liabilities or things like that. at the end of the day, you do need some of the other currency that is accepted by the
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government in order to pay the sales tax on -- tom: would you suggest that elon musk is not going to be able to sell a tesla because of bitcoin, because washington is going to say no? elsa: no, he will absolutely be able to sell it, but he will still need to convert those bitcoins into u.s. dollars in order to pay his sales tax or to pay the corporation tax or whatever else. that is the point, that at some point in the chain you still need to convert it back to the legal tender of the country you are operating income and that is what prevents bitcoin pushing out the dollar altogether. francine: elsa, thank you so much. elsa lignos, global head of fx strategy at rbc capital markets. tom is trying to figure out -- what exactly will happen, tom? i'm sure they will find a way to work around it. coming up, we will discuss reflation with julia coronado. this is bloomberg. ♪
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ritika: this is bloomberg surveillance. i am ritika gupta with the bloomberg business flash. read it is riding a wave of attention after users drove a stock market frenzy. the company says it raised 250 billy -- $250 million. trimming its loss outlook for the fiscal year, a sign that the beleaguered japanese automaker nissan is recovering from the worst of the coronavirus impact. the sun expects a net loss of $5.1 billion. -- nissan expects a net loss of $5.1 billion. for the first time ever, the average yields on the u.s. junk bonds fell below 4% come investors seeking a haven from over low interest rates, keeping
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piling into an asset class historically known for its high yield. the majority of new issues have been hugely oversubscribed, even though it is in the riskiest triple etf junk. that is the bloomberg business flash. francine: talking about some of these junk bonds come i want to show you exactly what is going on, and there could be -- it could be symptomatic of the reflation trade that we see in the last couple of weeks. if we have the data, let's bring it up so i can show you some of the things we are looking at again. junk bond yields dropping below 4% for the first time. investors seeking a haven from ultra low interest rates that keep piling into assets historically known for higher yields. global equity come if you look at global equities come and i'm looking at euro down 0.3% at 409 .45, they are pausing for investors sifting through earnings, on rising inflation expectations, what that means for stocks at record highs. tom: i am looking at a three-day
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chart of bitcoin right now. highs there, 48,215. 48,000 was a peek here a number of hours ago, and the equity markets -- the vix simply does not respond to record highs, 21.184, showing an inherent volatility within the system. i do want to point out gold with a nice $50 leap off that 118 level. brent crude is not a big move, but nevertheless oil with a little bit of a leap up. stay with us. leslie vinjamuri on a second impeachment. this is bloomberg. good morning. ♪
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francine: this is "bloomberg
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surveillance." donald trump's impeachment trial is set to begin today with a debate as to whether the proceedings are constitutional. the house managers and defense team will then begin presentations. 17 republicans would have to vote with all 50 democrats to find the former president guilty. joining us is leslie vinjamuri. the chance of conviction is close to zero. why is it important this continues? is it to show rule of law? does it to convince americans that institutions are so robust? leslie: just imagine, the senate has of impeachment, america and the world watched what happened, they heard the words of the president, and the senate has a choice.
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they can either say we don't care and there is not much we can do, and that goes down in history as america decided not to take up a trial, or they can go forward. i think they -- i think there is no choice but to go forward. francine: what are you looking for in terms of accusations were defense from the trump side? leslie: it will be interesting to see how attitudes change. part of what i am watching is the republican party, this is the big story for american politics. what happens to the republican party? and how does the electorates change their mind? over 80% of republicans, if we believe the polls, 80% of republicans would like to see former president trump acquitted. 90% of democrats want to see him convicted. an aggregate 56 percent of
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americans wants him convicted. i am watching to see how people's minds change when they see that retelling and to the videos we will see of what happened. we know that republicans are going to fight this. that offense is going to fight this along the lines of, it is unconstitutional to prosecute a president that is no longer in office. that is a weak defense. if you read the legal opinions, it is pretty weak. it also suggests they do not want to have to weigh in on whether former president trump was responsible for incitement to insurrection. tom: the photo of the day is by matthew hatcher, the article of the day is david kirkpatrick and mike mcintyre in the new york times on the violence in michigan in april transferring over to the violence we are going to relive in the coming days.
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whatever our political feeling. tell us about a republican party which has a domestic violence parts to it. a militia parts to it. are we ready for a republican militia in perpetuity? leslie: this is a deep problem. the republican part of america, which is moderate, the bulk of america is a moderate country. the republican party has historically been very moderate. let's wait and see not only with the public attitudes are, but what mitch mcconnell does. he is going to signal to the party whether the party will tolerate this kind of violence. tom: you are expert at this. there has always been history of domestic army, a militia. it comes up, then it subsides back.
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do you assume with this impeachment progress -- process, the ms. lucia -- the militia will subside or not? leslie: it depends on how the trial takes place. this is why it is important, regardless of the final vote, the process matters. what words are used by republicans to stand up and speak will matter a lot in signaling. it will either embolden that violent set of americans, willing to use those tactics to protest the outcome of the election, or it will not. there wait in american -- weight has everything to do with the words in the trial by former president trump and to those around him. whether they think they are on the side of victory. the reason we saw january 6 was because they firmly believed
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that history was on their side. that is why this trial is important. it is showing that history is not on the side of violent insurrection. many people have argued very strongly, like fiona hill, that this was a coup. that is an important question. my concern is that if there is an acquittal, as expected, it is important that there is a broader commission to investigate that question. was this insurrection? was this a coup? what happens to that element of the republican party who aided and abetted? francine: mitch mcconnell was one of the -- maybe it took them a couple of days, but he kind of condemned the attacks. not many republicans followed. leslie: it is not clear yet. this is up for grabs. this is the struggle for the future of the republican party
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the presidency of donald trump. that is part of what this trial is about. mitch mcconnell is playing his cards close to his chest. he wants to maintain control and it is not clear he can. those who say the trial is not important because the president is going to be acquitted are missing the big story. this is about the future of the republican party. tom: do we want ar-15's and a house of legislation? -- ar-15's in a house of legislation? forget about the politics, we have got all the baggage about the second, great. do we want to ar-15's involved in our legislative process? leslie: when people are reminded -- that was january 6, our attention span is very short. we since then had a glorious inauguration and all sorts of
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politics that people are very focused on. fighting over stimulus. now we are going to rewind and we are suddenly going to be reminded of a deeply traumatic event that included violence, people busting into the capital. -- capitol. there are very few americans that appreciated this. they're going to be reminded. today, tomorrow in the next day are very important. the first two days when the case is laid out is going to be critical. you raise the right question. tom: dr. ritika gupta -- dr. vinjamuri, queen of zoom. [laughter] she works 24/7, coast-to-coast. with our first world news, it is ritika gupta. ritika: president biden is set to ask about 56 u.s. attorneys
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appointed by the trump administration to resign. that is a standard process for a new administration. two of the federal prosecutors will be asked to stay on because they are working on politically sensitive cases. one is an investigation into the president's son hunter. the coronavirus variant in the u.k. has a foothold in florida. prompting concerns about fans who flooded the streets of tampa after the super bowl. florida eads -- florida leads the u.s. in cases of the known variant with 201 infections. in china, the birthrate keeps declining. the number of newborn babies registered fell by 15% last year. china's population is aging more quickly than most of the world's developed economies. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries.
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this is bloomberg. tom: thanks. future negative four. i am on the bitcoin watch. 50,000 is moments away. 46,500 on bitcoin. the gentleman from maryland, benjamin cardin. this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> i thought bitcoin would in the the euro and 50,000 or 60,000. -- i thought bitcoin would end the year at 60,000. the adoption rate is
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accelerating. i think bitcoin could end the year at $100,000. it doesn't have to be a lot, it is the messaging that matters and you are seeing the herd here. tom: on the way down, -- looking down. on the way up, he is smart. a smart conversation with joseph wiesenthal. what did you see? anchor, which barely describes his path. when was the first time you heard about bitcoin? >> it was a new yorker article in 2010 or something. it was kind of this weird thing and i dismissed it. tom: as nova regrets mentions, all of a sudden, apple picking it up. what is the downside for tesla or apple. >> i don't think there is much
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risk for tesla. tesla's entire reputation is about doing things that are in the future. the whole story of one day we are going to be on mars riding tesla's. part of the fantasy. tom: >> is a fantasy? >>i would guess -- francine: is a fantasy? >> i would guess. tom: let's extend this to two hours. let me be quick. the basic idea goes back to first principles. it is not legal tender. it is hinged upon an algorithmic theory. how do secretary yelena address this as it touches commercial tendencies? >> i think we do not know what yellen's stance is going to be but i think maybe the industry should be anxious. one reason is energy consumption of the currency. there are a lot of people in the
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yellen's orbit who are going to find that distasteful. and, obviously not tesla or many are -- or many other countries -- companies, one thing bitcoin can do is facilitate transactions between characters the government might find unsavory. even if that is not the majority reaction, i could see people in yellen's orbit seeing that as troublesome. francine: i have 1,000,001 questions. does it mean it could be used to get rid of the dodgy investors that have been invoked -- been in bitcoin? >> the exchanges and the custodial wallets, the companies that either facilitate buying that need access to the banking system in order to move dollars in the bitcoin, absolutely. they currently are regulated. there is more potential regulation. fundamentally there is nothing stopping me from sending a
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bitcoin to tom were you in a manner such that no third party can block it or potentially know about it. that is inherently unregulated below. there is nothing anyone can do about that. you can see perhaps they will be more strict in the future in terms of moving your coins off the exchange into a private wallet. you may have people who are part of the investment industry saying you know what, bitcoin is a form of gold. we don't need to be associated with some of these dodgy characters. these are fights and tensions that are going to keep happening as more money enters the space. francine: you are always three years ahead of everyone. what could be the underlying reason for elon musk to be so keen on it? there was a thread on twitter. [laughter]
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could he mine it in space? >> i think elon is having a lot of fun. that is my theory. it is fun to tweet about bitcoin. tom: [indiscernible] >> there is a potential expense. bitcoin is extremely volatile. even its most ardent fans would have to admit is 6 -- have to admit it is extremely volatile. people have put a lot of money into it only to see it fall. imagine if someone had got caught up near the peek of 2017 -- near the peak of 2017. you are going to get into the situation, and we are at this weird situation now where we have a lot of the richest most prominent people in finance and tech essentially encouraging
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speculation in a weird way. tom: are they encouraging criminal activity? >> i do not think anyone is encouraging criminal activity. i think it is in the air, the appetite for speculation. lots of people aggressively promoting the idea that digital coins of various natures are smart. tom: maybe you can buy high-yield bonds with it. coming up on the virus, vaccines, europe, amos should alter --
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>> [speaking foreign language] tom: a press conference from the world health organization, the sensitivities of being in wuhan. it is an important symbol of the path of this pandemic and we make note of that.
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we are thrilled to have him on today. you are the adult in the room. what is the important of the world health organization being in wuhan? >> we still don't understand the origin of the virus. we know what happened in the early days, but we don't know exactly when it started. we don't know which animal this jump from to humans. an independent investigation to figure out what happened completely in those days, before the virus was identified, is important. there is going to be another emergency and we need to learn from this one to prevent this from happening at -- happening again. tom: the fear of variants, does that fall back on our knowledge for move on? dr. adalja: not particularly. the variants were going to occur no matter what.
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all viruses mutate. lots have spun off since the beginning, only a few have reached the headlines because they changed the function of the virus, made it more of a problem. the variance themselves or what we would expect from antivirus. trying to figure out what the intermediate animal was. cats, camels, we don't know. francine: what does it mean for vaccines? how quickly can you have a vaccine to actually deal with the variant? dr. adalja: vaccine technologies exemplified by pfizer and moderna, it is update -- it is easy to update the vaccine. you just have to make some changes in the code and you can have a different vaccine. that is the elegance of mrna platforms. they are easy to plug and play. i do not have concerns.
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the question will be, do we need to do it? we will get more information specifically on the pfizer and moderna vaccine's versus the south african variant because astrazeneca has some problems. pfizer may be due using -- maybe using a different technologies. even with these variants, our vaccines are very robust. francine: when you look at some of the -- some of what were his -- some of what is happening in europe, the first shot with one vaccine, the second child with another. in combining these vaccines, could actually be more efficient? dr. adalja: that is the open question. we know each vaccine stimulates your immune system in a separate manner. could you have a mix and match combination? it is important to do these studies to optimize the ability
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of our immune system to fight off this virus. it is important to be done in a controlled package -- a controlled fashion. i think the results of these trials are going to be important intimate guide future vaccine policy. tom: thank you for joining us, dr. amesh adalja, we see the world health organization in china, delicately having a press conference. johns hopkins has all sorts of relationships with china and you are in health security, do you have an estimation of what beijing wants out of this press conference? what beijing wants out of this science? dr. adalja: my speculation would be that beijing wants not to be surprised, not to be embarrassed, to get a stamp of approval from the who, this is one of the concerns people have had for a long time with the who
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in china, that we may not get a fully independent investigation. this is now over a year since the virus appeared. there was a massive lack of transparency regarding what was going on, they persecuted doctors who announced the virus on bulletin boards on the internet, they do not want any of that to be brought up and they want to be told they did everything right. that is why we probably need to have an independent investigation that is completely objective, but we still may never know what happened in those early days. it is hard to tell what would have happened there. they have had a lot of time to massage the story. i do not think it is nefarious, but i think it is going to be hard to completely ascertain. tom: thank you so much, honored to have you on with us as we observe the press conference in wuhan. with johns hopkins university. the yield on high-yield, not
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full faith and credit sovereign, but there is a bid price up. we particularly see that in higher coupon, which has been driven down. price up, yield down under 4%. that truly is a hallmark going back on my charge to 1987. james caron of morgan stanley is the right person to speak to. compare and contrast to 2006 and 2007. futures minus five. bitcoin off the 48,000 level with a handle. stay with us. from london and new york, another hour of "bloomberg: surveillance." ♪
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tom: how about a market check? trillions and anticipated stimulus, assets rise. expectations of inflation, they turn too. first tesla, now apple, bitcoin to the moon. the vaccine well and the dollar, sterling advances, the pound strengthens against the less vaccinated europe. impeachment two, the former president claims free speech and the fact he is former. good morning everyone. tom keene in new york, francine lacqua in london. 137 sterling. do you buy what jon ferro talks about where it is just, you are getting vaccination right and europe is not? it is not about -- francine: first of all, it is clear the market is discounting negative rates. we had a great conversation. if you look at the


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