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tv   Bloomberg Markets Americas  Bloomberg  February 9, 2021 1:00pm-2:00pm EST

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trout of donald trump, beginning today, including video that has not been seen before. democrats are presenting the charge that the former president incited violence at the capitol on january 6. the managers have not indicated whether they will ask percent approval to call witnesses and they have not ruled out acting -- asking the senate to subpoena mr. trump, who has declined to testify under oath. the company to head the office of management and budget is promising to work with both parties. it touched off an angry backlash over her sarcastic twitter post that was directed at prominent republicans, some of whom will be voting on her confirmation. she told the senate homeland security and governmental affairs committee today she will work in good faith with all members. new york city has administered more than one million covid-19 vaccines, a major milestone, but it falls short of a goal that the mayor had hoped to reach by
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the end of january. he said a lack of supplies held back the rollout. new york city has appealed to the federal government and pharmaceutical companies for more doses. in china, a sign that the birth rate is declining, the number of newborn babies registered with the police fell by almost 15% last year. the population is aging more quickly than most of the developed economies. the communist party has signaled it will further relax birth restrictions. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i'm mark crumpton. this is bloomberg. ♪ vonnie: it is 1:00 p.m. in new
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york, 6:00 p.m. in london welcome to "bloomberg markets." , i am vonnie quinn. here are the top stories. donald trump's second impeachment trial is set to start in moments with house impeachment managers just arriving. we will have the latest. and on the market side, twitter earnings after the bell today. we will tell you what investors are looking for as they look to decrease their reliance on advertising. and a key player in the creation of vehicles -- that story later this hour. we are noncommittal today in the market, all eyes on the second impeachment trial as the s&p 500 is literally flat, but above the 3900 mark. and crude oil continues to rise, albeit more slowly, hoping oil companies.
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vix is unchanged at 21. haynes brands the top performerd trump's second impeachment trial, which will begin momentarily. joining us is a political science chair from brown university. wendy, this is the first stage of things. will there be a defense we will be able to take seriously and may actually make a dent? wendy: you have to look at who will announce they will retire, who will run in the next election. it will be a very expensive vote for republican senators. the cost is so high, and he is not in office anymore, you have to wonder why you would ever vote for this. but there are arguments to be made. is the purpose of impeachment to
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chastise or prevent somebody from running again? or is it simply to remove somebody for federal office? i think we will hear arguments on both sides of that. vonnie: if there's an incentive to make a good case, is the case already laid out by the defense good enough? one, that a former president can be impeached. two, that the president was exercising his free-speech rights. wendy: the jury is out on the former. it will be the senate that decides, on a bipartisan basis, whether a former president can be impeached. the constitution does not say anything about it. you have to interpret it. and on the second, there are limits on free speech. the most famous case on that with in the early part of the century. you cannot say anything that you
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want to say. you might say that goes double for the president. i'm not sure the argument is going to fly. it's whether in fact you can tie the violence to the words themselves that president trump spoke on january 6. vonnie: why isn't there a more aggressive effort to gather evidence for what happened around january 6 and the days leading up to it? will 16 hours be enough to hear everything that was gathered? wendy: some would argue that the phone call he made while president to the secretary state of georgia, literally asking him to overturn a legitimate election and find votes seems to me a greater violation, more concrete, of law, then what they are trying to get at now with the insurrection. in terms of evidence, i think they are trying on the wrong charge, if you think about it. but this is about associating
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with the gop, not just with donald trump, but the entire movement he spurred, which in terms of imagery and video, scares people. that's what the gop is worried about. that's what the democrats are trying to accomplish, how can they make the gop this gary party. that is but they will be pounding on this week. the defense of the gop will only go so far in combating that. vonnie: we are already looking at powerful images on the screen with the senate convening, the managers in place. are we certain that there will not be any witnesses, that no one will be subpoenaed and we will not hear from individuals, including the former president? wendy: i think the house managers, the house itself, the democratic party wants this to be a serious trial. they want to make the smartest case possible. i think the senate democrats,
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given that the senate is 50-50 and things are moving ahead on covid, they want to move on and not have to deal with this anymore. the enthusiasm to call witnesses, i think, is different and not equally balanced. vonnie: does the outcome of the next few days, however long this takes, impact other cases waiting for the former president? we know the manhattan district attorney has cases to go and so on. wendy: it depends on the jury pool. if the president is not indicted, then a lot of people will have seen this over and over and it could or could not taint their views. the longer verdict goes to the elections in 2022. and how far right is his image.
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that's the question. will things die down for donald trump, or will he maintain his grip on the party. either way, right now it does not look like either image, especially for suburban voters, who will be voting in 2022 -- vonnie: we know coming into this that republicans were very much on the side of the former president, more so than perhaps he might've thought right after the election. wendy: but the key thing is the partisan republicans will support their president. we know this. but what we saw in the general election, in arizona, georgia, then the runoff in georgia, suburban voters, they ran away and defected from donald trump. they stayed away in the runoff. that's vital to the gop, as they
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try to get the house and senate back in 2022. the core party, that is fine, but if they want to win the senate back and house back, you neither suburban voters. i do not think this week is going to do them favors. vonnie: is it a mistake on the part of the defense now to allow the former president to testify? after all, he is popular with his base and a lot of the country. wendy: we saw this way back when, when we saw the clinton depositions that led to the indictment of bill clinton. that whatever you say under oath, it better be true, because if not you can be charged with perjury. and i think his advisors and lawyers are concerned that you do not know what donald trump will say. i think a good lawyer would not
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want him to talk. vonnie: the other thing we do not know about, if there were pocket pardons before he left office. maybe that is a reason he is not being put on the stand. wendy: in general, with this president in particular, the volatility, plus the unpredictability, makes for a very unstable witness. it's not something you want to get him into, because if he says that he is claiming credit to these pocket pardons and other things, the republican senators may have to shift. they may be forced into voting to convict him if he says outrageous things. he cannot help his case, he can probably only heard it. republicans are comfortable -- hurt it. republic's are comfortable now, but a week from now that could
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change -- republicans are comfortable now, but week from now that could change. vonnie: just to turn to the white house, keeping away from this process and leaving it to congress, it feels like -- the white house has been busy with the relief proposal, the stimulus proposal, will it get the $1400 checks through? what else will have to give in on? wendy: it seems like joe biden is willing to set the minimum wage at side. bernie sanders wants it, but i think that biden is willing to give it away. he's adamant on the $1400 number. plus the $600, that makes $2000, part of his campaign promise. it rests on this package and vaccinations. in a year, we want to see the economy picking up again.
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that means joe biden's first year would have been successful. and you will have hope for democrats in the following year. if they blow it, you can ask bill clinton what happened after two years of being unsuccessful, especially with nafta, if you lose those seats in congress, there's nothing left. he would like to leave donald trump in the dust, so he can move on. vonnie: that has been obvious. today, obviously the administration is meeting with business leaders, jamie dimon among them, the usual suspects like the walmart ceo, lowe's ceo, but there is also another $800 million worth of ppe money out there for businesses. is this going to be satisfying to the democrats, the left leaning democrats? wendy: it is a combination of a
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challenge of vaccinations and public health and getting covid under control, which is separate from the impact of the actual dollars. i think that this is a problem. you want synergy. but you cannot make them work together. so this is the issue. by summer, when people are feeling more secure, kids should be back in school. this is essential to the economy, but we have uncertainty. that's the big issue. republicans can make the argument, do not spend trillions of dollars when we do not know. we could recover with the vaccinations, we do not need to spend the extra money. but democrats say we need both at the same time. that's where the leadership is crucial. we are not quite seeing it where it needs to be yet, so i think the window for joe biden is much shorter than the average president's window for the first few months. vonnie: we appreciate your time,
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wendy schiller, of brown university. chuck schumer has submitted the trial resolution now and is asking for its consideration. we are switching gears as electronic arts gets into the kardashian business. the game maker will be buying - - global, including a kardashian
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vonnie: the second impeachment trial of donald trump has gotten underway now. we know that chuck schumer submitted the resolution asking for consideration, that was adopted into the next four hours
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will be on the constitutional question between the managers and defense. we will be bringing you all of the headlines from that. time for our stock of the hour, glu mobile is a spiking, after being bought by electronic arts. here is kailey leinz. >> we do not get to talk about the kardashians often, and this is part of the deal. they will be purchasing glu for $2.1 million. now stocks are trading above -- $2.1 billion. now stocks are trading above their purchase level. they are the makers of kim kardashian: hollywood. ea is getting in here. the ceo said that mobile is growing as the largest gaming business, and this acquisition
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will double ea's mobile gaming presence to $1.3 billion. glu has about $500 million in avenue annually, but its growth has been outpacing that. it grew larger than ea last year. ea is looking at acquisitions to get bigger, not just with this acquisition that was announced yesterday, but also it bought code masters for $1.2 billion in december. and our analysts say that these acquisitions should benefit the company in a big way, once they actually close. they see it leading to a gain for ea to $6.30 a share, and beyond that. that said, they have noted risks
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with this acquisition of glu, competition in the space it operates, and rule changes on the part of apple because with mobile gaming you have to go through an app story. vonnie: the other question that i had was obviously video games have been boosted by the pandemic, people have been indoors, but will it be sustained post the vaccine? >> that is the question. what would happen when we have better things to do than playing video games? it is not think that the -- the market is not think the video craze is not going anywhere. the gains are continuing so far in 2021. the videogame index up 3% in january, that was double the gain for the nasdaq 100, so clearly investors do not think the story is over with the video games. vonnie: kailey leinz, thinking. -- thank you.
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vonnie: some of the biggest names are pumping billions into aggregators, that sell everything from tea kettles to sunscreen on amazon. we have a story from spencer now. this is a story i was not aware of. all of these companies that have intervention that has taken off -- invention that has taken off on amazon. people are starting to notice it. but other people are aggregating several of these companies now, so it's plain about these aggregators, who they are and where they are getting their money from? spencer: sure. the phenomenon has been happening slowly for the past couple years, but it really picked up in the pandemic when e-commerce doubled its growth rate and people flocked to amazon. so, we reported today a company
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called granded group. they've raised money, led by target global. they are joining other companies that have raised the most money so far, from public equity backings. and another one is perch, that got money from sparky capital, which invested in wayfair. you have money from everywhere here, from venture capital, private equity, investment banks -- it seems everybody is dog piling in. vonnie: do we know how these mom and pops are getting valued and are they aware of what is going on? are they getting enough, let's say, further legwork? -- for the legwork? spencer: there is seller discretionary expenses or
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something where they look at the business's profitability, including the salary they pay themselves, because that is a big part of the value to them. they were selling for maybe 3.5, now 4.5 times of the earnings, because of all of the interest now. so you are getting bidding wars in the value of these a smaller amazon based businesses. they are going up as all the money comes pouring in. vonnie: what happens to these groups of companies once they are aggregated, do they go public or do they stay in these private equity hands? spencer: it is still early, but basically once a company or one of these aggregators buys a brand, they pull it into the fold, and some of these folks have cobbled together dozens with goals of getting many more, like in the hundreds of these brands, and then they try to find synergies on the backend, can they get manufacturing discounts, shipping discounts,
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can they apply the search engine optimization expertise to multiple products, that sort of thing is what they will do. and the endgame, we do not know, but anchor technologies is really probably of the northstar on this. they have been able to graduate from amazon to walmart and target and store shelves. it's a company that was founded on amazon selling charger cables and built it into a prominent electronics brand. vonnie: we are out of time, but if you are thinking of listing some of your products on amazon, is now the time when you want to look to see if others have been doing that, because if they have been aggregated then you stand no chance? spencer: there is always time to create a product that people want and need, i do not know if
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this changes of that game at all. vonnie: it is a phenomenon that is emerging and you figure it out and wrote the story. so, thank you so much. that was spencer, who covers amazon from seattle for us. we are watching the impeachment proceedings that have begun in the senate. follow along on live go. we will take you through the headlines. we know the managers are showing january from -- are now showing video from january 6. full speed ahead, will it be a smooth ride for uber and lyft as they report earnings, or will there be speed bumps? we will report, next. this is bloomberg. ♪
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mark: i'm mark with first word news. moments ago, the senate opened donald trump's second
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impeachment trial. the former president is charged by the house with inciting the deadly january 6 mob attack on the capitol in what prosecutors call the most grievance -- most grievous constitutional crime. his lawyer say he is not guilty of the sole charge of incitement of insurrection. his words were just a figure of speech as he encouraged a crowd to "fight like hell" for his presidency. but chuck schumer sees things differently. >> those who say let's move on, that brings unity, are false. when you have had such a serious invasion of the capital, incited by a president, who we know urged people to come to washington, urged them to march on the capitol.
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the senate has said he is guilty. when you have such a serious charge, sweeping it under the rug will keep the sore open. mark: mr. trump is the first u.s. president to face second impeachment charges, and the first to be charged after leaving office. the european union foreign policy chief borrell says the block must take a firm stance on russia, including through new sanctions. this comes in the wake of the jailing of alexey navalny. the eu has imposed sanctions on those responsible for his poisoning, but alexey navalny has urged europeans to put asset freezes on oligarchs that are close to vladimir putin. a morning from iran, the intelligence minister there says the country could push for a nuclear weapon as sanctions
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remain in place. it is rare for a government official to indicate the nation could reverse its course on the nuclear program. tehran has long insisted the program is for peaceful purposes only, such as power generation and medical research. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i'm mark crumpton. this is bloomberg. ♪ vonnie: welcome to bloomberg markets. we i joined by both are bloomberg and bnn bloomberg audiences. here are the stories we're following. we will take a look at ridesharing, with lyft reporting
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after the bell and uber results out tomorrow. twitter earnings also after the bell, we will discuss what we can expect as they build out a subtraction platform. and the boom is wearing out. firms are warning of market challenges after the flood of listings in the last year. amanda: we are seeing markets generally flat, if possible some positive momentum here and there, because they are in record territory in some cases. you might see new highs today, especially in toronto, but s&p 500 is modestly negative here. some of the faang stocks are doing ok, others are weak. energy is a drag on the broader picture here. no help from industrials,
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financials, and you can see the nasdaq is not offering much support here either. we are watching individual names as they report the results. generally, the news has been good. the reopening trade factors into a lot of these names, some big ones on the docket, including lyft today, uber tomorrow morning. we have a senior internet analyst with us. thank you for being with us. i wanted to start with the reopening aspect, to what extent you are looking for revenue lifts because of reopening for both of these names. >> lyft, we expect to see revenue acceleration nearly doubling in 2021, versus 2020. it's on ridership, use cases, airports, and city centers
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reopening. we would review any guidance as a sign of confidence, given on the call tonight, derisking the stocks. the goal of becoming a positive in the fourth quarter of next year's conical. -- next year is critical. we expect them to talk about that tonight. vonnie: the number of rides, is it the length of rides, how do we know what will take us beyond the pandemic when it comes to ridesharing? brian: the number one performance indicator is revenue per active rider. we have it going from $40 to $43 if it is growing, it shows that the core customers are sticking around and increasing usage, which is great for the stock, especially as we go into the
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reopening. amanda: compare that to over, where the higher -- uber, where the higher risk could play out. brian: higher risk, higher reward. it is four times the market cap of lyft, four times the business size and 1.5 times the valuation. the issue is we would like the multi-vertical ride approach that uber has taken in addressing these delivery businesses. they continue to rationalize markets where they are laggards. and they are divesting businesses, the nonproductive assets, and that is important for what we call localized economies of scale. we think the floor of the stock will continue to rise if they again can demonstrate that each
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business is growing nicely, you know, throughout -- as it has been throughout 2020. and if they can provide guidance on how they see rideshare opening up in the back half of 2021. vonnie: what does lyft do to diversify and be safer in an environment where basically it is counting on one thing right now? brian: what you are seeing all these delivery networks, local delivery networks of scale do is they are moving into adjacent markets. uber acquired a company this week, or last week, and so anything you can do to drive utilization of a bad asset, a local delivery asset, that drops the contribution margins to the bottom line. lyft is partnering with delivery companies like grub to drive better utilization of that network. we think many delivery networks,
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dash included, are moving into adjacent markets, like local pharmacy, grocery, anything you could do to drive utilization. amanda: we have seen regulatory risk for all of these technology companies, including how employees and contractors will be treated, that is a loaded term. how do you think the margins will unfold? brian: we think the prop 22 vote in california was key. 70% of these workers for the delivery companies do not want to be employees, they are using these opportunities for additional cash. they are already covered with their main job, maybe a spouse's job, so we think a third rail
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needs to come about to address these markets, these gig workers, where some of them just want to cash out immediately. we think there is a balanced approach in putting the power in the driver's hands, to use the system as they want to. the vast majority of drivers for the networks work less than 20 hours a week. in terms of the margins, i think it is a balancing act between uber and lyft and dash being able to provide tools for their drivers. and also being able to provide a safety net for them. we do not think is detrimental -- it's detrimental to the margin structure. vonnie: lyft is up 7/10 of 1% and uber now up to present.
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-- 2%. twitter will report after the bell. we will discuss it, next. this is bill burck. -- is bloomberg. ♪
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vonnie: this is "bloomberg markets." i am vonnie quinn. alongside amanda lang. twitter will report after the bell today, the first earnings release since the d.c. riots, when the company decided to de-p latform. donald trump -- to de-platform
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donald trump. here is john freeman, cfra vice president of equity research. the question of deplatforming figures, will have made a difference this quarter? john: i think that most of that happened actually post results, so for the coming quarter -- they will probably talk about what the impact of that traffic leaving twitter will be over the next year -- but i think they are benefiting from other surges , not just the political season, but the higher engagement in general from one billion to two billion people sheltering at home worldwide, as well as other changes. their usage started to grow, the usage growth started to accelerate about 18 months ago,
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when they made software changes. and they have been continuing to make other improvements. that help them get up to 10%, then 21%. and you saw politics accelerating growth to 34%, the last few quarters, so it has to decelerate. but i am looking for them to talk about the double-digit growth in terms of usage going forward. i think that is reasonable. amanda: when you talk about the transformational moment for twitter, it feels like twitter sometimes gets in its own way. what do you see as being the necessary components of this next level of success for twitter? john: you do not know, you are waiting for the butterfly to come out. this is a perfect moment for them to revamp their business
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model, offer sufficient based services. -- offer subscription based services. they have played around with the idea for years, but now they have a software platform they have upgraded where they can make rapid changes a lot more easily, and have them isolated as a-b testing. that is what will get them to where they need to go. but i want to see some quarters opposed sur -- some quarters post surge, say in the beginning of 2022, then i can get more table pounding about how twitter can really become, you know, perhaps a rival to facebook rather than sort of a niche they have carved out, which has been impressive. but they have been around for a long time, why can't they have the growth the snap into these other guys have? it is plausible, but they need to execute.
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vonnie: at some point there will be a reckoning. they finally got past donald trump as a problem. it took the whole presidency for them to decide that he had gone too far. but that's only one user. this is going to come up again, and again, and again, and regulators surely will take this on in more of a manifest fashion. when do you expect that to start? john: i would say that the summer session is kind of a typical session where congress takes up these kinds of tech regulation kind of bills. that's what i am expecting. obviously, facebook has leveled up its advertisement about how it will support privacy. it looks like they are getting better at lobbying. i think twitter could be a big beneficiary here.
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regulation does not happen in a vacuum, it needs broad public support at the end of the day and politicians are very wary of that. at the same time, facebook has a lot of real backlash. i think twitter got that too, but i think it was positive, them stepping in and doing something about the content that they found was misleading or dangerously misleading. so i think that people are going to view that semi positively. and i want to put forth one more thing i thought was interesting. in order to sort of have a way to screen content, facebook decided on a human solution, this executive board or this supreme court on whether content is ok. where it is supposed to be external. twitter has launched bird watch,
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where it is automated and more democratic. it's not one person, one vote. i think whether the content is good will depend on experts in that area. i think they came at it with a much more computer-based, software-based system where you probably would've thought facebook would have done something more along those lines. it seems like a better, more attractive solution, at least from the company's perspective. it seems more democratic and fair from the public's perspective, once they are able to understand it or have it explained. it will be interesting. amanda: do you feel like twitter has done everything it could do to capitalize on its access to the platform? it pays the same price as facebook does for the role it plays in the public forum, but
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is it using the backend data to its advantage as a revenue generator? john: it doesn't. that was one of the things that has changed with the company. so they started a big software overhaul about two years ago, when they got bruce from google, and a couple of others. there's a number of things they had to fix, but the last thing they fixed was the advertiser platform, the software that the advertisers use to place their ads. they do it much more intelligently now, much more in tune with weather data is saying. that overhaul is great, but let's see how well they sell it, how will it comes across. early indicators are that the advertisers like the new interface and new features. i think that is a key driver. it will be key for them.
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amanda: it is good to have your input. that is john freeman, cfra vice president of equity research. we have the cfo of twitter on the program tomorrow, ned siegel. you do not want to miss that. this is bloomberg. ♪
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amanda: this is "bloomberg markets." the boom is overwhelming what was a standard player in the insurance industry. for more we are joined by catherine. what is happening to the insurers in this puzzle of facts? >> like many readers out there, last year the boom overwhelmed
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the insurance market. they would normally provide liability insurance, the key to forming these blank check companies. but because they were so many blank check companies going on last year, the insurance companies quickly got overwhelmed. they did not want to be overexposed to the markets, so many of them have changed terms and conditions and raised prices, and you see the power in the insurance markets' hands now. vonnie: in this case, i suppose in all cases, if you were early to the back game, you were early in a lot of ways, including the insurance malarkey. in other words, if you are a director now, you may have to pay a larger premium in order to protect you from any liability. >> agreed. they may have to pay a higher premium. some will get creative, so we might see them more aggressive in insurance, they might be
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accepting less coverage than they normally would. it matters how long you have been in this back game. underwriters say it is a key thing they take into consideration, it is easier to offer better prices to those who have done this for many years. amanda: in defense of the insurance companies' pricing, if you think about offering it to people without knowing how they will be investing, it probably does make the race card to measure. -- risk hard to measure. >> that is a key point. even before the back boom started, there were a few insurers who were willing to. write it because it is unknown we have heard that they are willing to get more into the game. aig says they are writing more policies, but it is still a small portion of their portfolio. they really want to know that you know how to take a spac to
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fruition. that's kind of key. they actually said in terms of stabilizing pricing, that's what it will take probably, a longer time of seeing how the mergers play out. and making the insurance market more comfortable with this part of the esther street -- part of the industry. vonnie: we have seen spac creation, but not many going public events. we have had a few. but i am presuming it is more of those that the industry will stabilize? >> i agree. once they see how the losses are playing out -- the thing is we have not seen many of the losses occur from last year's boom, because they have not done those transactions. that is making the market more wary of the situation, is you have had so many spacs, they all have to find their targets and you have to make sure they are doing it, in a way that is safe
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disclosing everything to shareholders. so, once we see sort of more of those acquisitions happen, insurers may start to get more comfortable with the market. vonnie: catherine, thank you. it's a fascinating story. i want to point out that the second impeachment trial of former president donald trump is underway in the senate. it will go a couple more hours. arguments are underway. not much happening in the markets, amanda. amanda: it is a pretty quiet day on both sides of the border. vonnie: we will see you tomorrow. from me in new york, amanda in toronto, this is bloomberg. ♪
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. .
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mark: i am mark crumpton was bloomberg's first word news. former president trump's second
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impeachment trial has begun in the senate. the top republican in the house says the proceedings are unconstitutional and democrats are only pursuing it because they think mr. trump will run for president in 2024. congressman jim jordan of ohio tells foxbusiness he thinks they are right. he believes mr. trump will run for the white house and win. jordan said it would be good for the nation if you did -- he did. passengers traveling to the u.k. could find themselves behind bars if they do not follow pointing measures. the government outlined new restrictions including repeated tests and the threats of fines and even jail as officials try to prevent dangerous new strains from entering the country. the coronavirus is unlikely to have leaked from a chinese lab and is more likely to have jumped to humans from animals.


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