tv Bloomberg Markets Asia Bloomberg February 9, 2021 9:00pm-11:00pm EST
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china falling to deflation as a virus restrictions put the brakes on consumption. producer prices rising for the first time in a year. haslinda: the hunt for yield sending investors to junk bonds. asia attracting more bullish calls. rishaad: more doubts over the delayed turkey olympics. sexist comments from a leading official. i'm mixed bag turning into a positive one. looking at the hang seng posting gains of over 450 points, rising 1.5%. volumes lower, down to the stock market being closed down. shanghai comp up zero point 75%. the nikkei flat. this global equity rally reinvigorating investors, for a
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stimulus-fueled rebound. there are fears it could trigger destabilizing inflation. the dollar steadying overnight after its decline. 10 year yield under pressure. that is indicated to what is going on with the dollar. new york crude stockpiles in the u.s. shrinking, that is helping the price go up. wti up to nearly $60 a barrel. bitcoin, jp morgan saying it is not something large companies will be getting into and trying to emulate tesla's decision to add it to their balance sheet. means -- to say mainstream corporations will follow is the volatility of the cryptocurrency. let's see what we have in terms of a first word news with karina mitchell in new york. karina: good morning.
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china slipped into deflation last month as consumer prices fell 0.3 percent since december. expectations were zero. factory prices rose 0.3%, in line with expectations. producer prices rose the first time in a year. gaps in consumer demand in recent weeks. the country keeps tight restrictions in place to rein in local coronavirus outbreaks. the unemployment rate jumped to 5.4% in january, up almost a full percent from south korea december. shed one million jobs from a year earlier for an 11th straight month of lower employment. here in the u.s., donald trump's historic second impeachment trial will continue after the senate rules the process is constitutional. has prosecutors argue mr. trump trade his oath of office and
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inside of the capital -- capitol on january 6. the trial is almost certain to end in trump's acquittal. the w.h.o. says it is highly unlikely the virus came from a lab link in china, blaming transmission of the coronavirus to humans from animals made from frozen meat. an official said the virus could have been introduced to a white -- wet market in the city by a person who was infected, or a product sold there. the research team was comprised of 17 international and 17 chinese experts. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i'm karina mitchell. this is bloomberg. haslinda? haslinda: we are tracking platinum prices topping 1200 an ounce, the highest price since 2015.
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$1200 an ounce for platinum. asia mostly higher. hong kong trading up more than 1%. it does seem the reflation trade is going nowhere anytime soon. >> everybody wants to believe in it. you can see what is happening in the united states, setting believer everybody. you see stocks grinding higher day after day. the treasury market relatively well behaved. yields have been rising slightly, at a slow pace, nothing too dramatic. even when the yields gets to the 1.2 level, there is resistance. there is no signal stocks are getting too hot. as long as that is the case, people are comfortable to focus on the stimulus, the fact that
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inflation is relatively low, though the derivatives market says inflation will go higher. there is no immediate sign the cpi report is showing any signals. we will get the reading today. it is not expected to be different from the last one. major indicators suggesting accommodation is the name of the game. conditions are good, interest rates are low. people are continuing to take risks. there is nothing much on the horizon that can knock people out of their steady pattern they have. tapering the bond market would unsettle people. as the fed have been saying, they have no plans to reduce their qe. rishaad: talk to me about reflation, the so called
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reflation trade in japan. driving yen interest rates to the highest levels in two years. what is going on? mark: it is much more moderate in japan. we see a pickup and no longer dated yields. it is relatively small in comparison to what we have seen in the u.s. i think it is partly because the bank of japan signaled when they come to their march meeting, they will be announcing reviews, so called yield curve control they put in place a few years ago. there have been suggestions they want to see the yield curve steepening again. there has been no pushback. the market is expecting the bank of japan may signal more movement, particularly around the 10 year sector. there has been low relatively --
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volatility. we are looking for flexibility in how much volatility we can get in the long-term yields. the markets are beginning to the price that in. that is why we see long-term prices creep up. it is relatively minor. it is a fame across the world that yield curves are steepening and japan is part of the global trend. rishaad: market cranfield with strategies. check out the markets alive blog for commentaries as it happens. still to come on bloomberg, speaking to nobel peace laureate kailash satyarthi, hoping to eradicate child labor in the expectation of minors. haslinda: we focus on the global
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>> from the trade tensions with china to the fiscal policy, including the strength of the u.s. dollar, and the pandemic surge we saw since the big get -- the beginning of covid-19, these are levels of shipments we have never seen before. >> ship something, delays, seven to 10 days. even the port at long beach, we have 33 berths. vessels now alongside between
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seven and 11 days. we have over 40 ships waiting and we are backing up with a lot of additional costs and problems, but we are working through that. it is inevitable freight weight costs will have to go up. >> i think it is important to work out this solution. it is not just a port. it is important to work together to solve this problem. haslinda: shipping industry leaders talking about challenges affecting the sector. the last year, containers have been in short supply and prices have soared. though the crunch is easing, there is concern on the world's post pandemic recovery. our guest at the international chamber of shipping, esben
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poulsson, joins us from singapore. we talked about heather shipping industry is under pressure. what trends have you seen in the last months and weeks? esben: in the last couple of months, your previous guest implied, it changed considerably. a year ago container demand was down 25% to 30% to q1-q2 and to the beginning of q3. since then, there has been a tremendous consumer boom. people who normally would've been traveling or going to restaurants are having holidays have gone online and started a spending spree. this has resulted in a tremendous amount for containers and products shipping from europe to the u.s. of course,, we had introduce
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capacity quickly. they responded as best they can. we have a situation today that was unexpected. the level of demand was unexpected, but that is the background. haslinda: how will this play out? we're getting reports of congestion in southeast asia. also, ports in india. how bad is it, how will it play out? esben: there is definitely congestion in the ports you mentioned, and equally on the west coast of the u.s. as your previous guest outlined. it is a temporary problem. i do not see this being long-term. there will be additional capacity added to the container line system and this demand will
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be dealt with. in the run-up to chinese new year there is an uptick in demand from exports from this part of the world. i think in the medium-term toward midyear i would expect a leveling out of current rate increases. haslinda: how is this a reflection of the trade situation globally? esben: as i said before, there was a pent-up demand. it has now come to pass. trade -- we very much believe in free trade. we are cosponsoring a study with the harvard kennedy school of government to show the importance of free trade and how much countries suffered by trade restrictions. we estimate $1.7 trillion in
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restrictions it since 2009. this study, which comes out on the 24th of february, will throw light on this and show governments better, enlightened policies toward free trade. rishaad: we have been here before. it is perhaps more acute this time around. it is it -- is it a perennial problem in hard times they scrapped too many ships, and in good times do not have the supply and over order? esben: yes, the supply and demand capacity of ships does vary according to demand. we know the supply because we know the number of ships in the world. what we do not always now is, that can vary tremendously.
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traditionally, there has been more capacity than demand for it. rishaad: looking at the industry as a whole, you see one of the big problems of the pandemic has been getting people off of these boats. very few countries see these sailors as key workers. is that a huge issue? esben: it is a huge issue. we address to that february. we saw this coming and worked tirelessly with our fellow associations at the g7, g20, u.n. we even got the pope to address this problem. we made quite a lot of progress, particularly in the access time on board. since then, with introductions
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of new strains of the virus, this has created a and now problem. 47 countries have so far agreed they should be treated as such. you have issues where seafarers, in a south pacific nation of 10,000, all over the world are unable to get home because of no airline capacity. this problem is huge. there are hundreds of thousands of seafarers that are in excess of their contract. governments need to step up to this. i am sorry that the national labor convention has very strict rules on this. i am sorry to say many governments are not obeying these rules. finally, the vaccine. it is critical governments and
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ports prioritize the vaccine. this is an everybody'-- in everybody's interest. rishaad: when do you think things will improve with regard to prices normalizing to some extent? this is a global pandemic and needs a global response. esben: salute lee. we called for a global response -- absolutely. we called for a global response. we have outlined what the problem is. we know what the problem is. the government needs to deal with it. singapore is a perfect example. we have protocols that work very well. the government has been super
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proactive. if these could be copy pasted around the world as the gold standard, i am sure this problem could be dealt with much better and much more quickly. haslinda: the shipping industry, transportation as a whole, accounts for a significant proportion of carbon emission. where is the industry now? esben: in 2018 will develop to what we called the paris agreement for shipping. we are not part of the paris agreement not because we did not want to, but because we were not included. we made a specific and a strong commitment to decarbonize by 2050.
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we are working on a fund to be a catalyst for the development of tomorrow's fuels. we had major support from japan, but we do not have a major buy-in. we hope in june our proposal will be approved. it is not the solution, but it is a catalyst. we're working with universities, governments, institutes of higher learning, research institutes all over the world. we see this as a catalyst. we have a commitment to reach the goal we have set. rishaad: esben poulsson joining us. thank you. speaking with the state owned shipping organization from india
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on how the shipping container shortage affected earnings. check out our coverage of the crisis affecting this industry on the terminal. you can watch previous reports, check out charts and analysis on your terminal. haslinda: the world health organization concludes its mission in wuhan, providing more clarity on the origins of covid-19. this is bloomberg. ♪ g. ♪
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suggests the virus moved from an animal host or a frozen product, rejecting it came from a lab. what were the w.h.o.'s conclusions on what was a highly publicized mission? >> you said they looked up four -- at four scenarios. they dismissed the theory promoted by some like trump that this came from a lab in china. they narrowed it down to two. it jumped from an intermediate animal host or frozen wildlife products, sold in the wuhan market, where we saw that huge number of patients emerge in december 2019. haslinda: is it controversial? rachel: findings have been the
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target of criticism and speculation. the main findings adhere to what rate -- to what china has been trying to say. they did not find evidence of a large outbreak prior to december 2019. the virus was not circulating in china prior to that month. this is something the chinese government has been trying to push. they have been trying to say the virus did not appear in china. the w.h.o. is validating that. we have heard the u.s. so we do not believe it comes from anywhere else but china. some scientists are saying this is controversial. the politics have overtaken the scientific mission. even if this is what the chinese government says, does not mean it is scientifically untrue. it has become such a politicized process.
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haslinda: here is the latest business flash headlines. results of fell the most in four months after a report in money-laundering and organized crime, shows a casino. the judges said the company is not fit to hold a gambling license and said the shareholder's stake should be cuts. she also asked for the archer of crown's ceo. sf holdings buying kerry logistics in a deal worth more than $2 billion. they will take a 52% stake and will be listed in hong kong exchange. soared when it resumed trading this morning. rishaad: a quick check on
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haslinda: live pictures of the lion city. the and strapped ti trading down by .2%. dbs limiting losses for the index, trading up after saying it sees a rebound of its first annual drop in four years. looking optimistic for the rest of the year, according to the ceo. the sei currently down .2%. on a day when most benchmarks in
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asia are in positive territory. speaking of the asian banks, mostly higher, even after the u.s. posted losses following six days of gains. investors mulling whether the fed rules to let the yuan become hot will lead to inflation. also the 10 year option. msci asia pac index is up .6%. china up more than one person. hang seng going strong. in the fx market, the dollar is steady after falling to a two-week low on inflation worries. robert kaplan said it is something to watch very closely. bitcoin falling back from a record after tesla bought $1.5 billion of cryptocurrency. tesla's bitcoin bet is said to be too bold for others to sell. the main issue is volatility. looking at commodities quickly. oil holding its rally. an industry report pointing to a drop in u.s. crude stockpiles. brent crude flat at 61.10.
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iron ore climbing on the china demand after the holiday. iron ore currently higher by .7%. let's look closer at the search for yield. if you are in the markets, there is quite a bit to be found in asia's junk yield space. david ingles is here. interesting to be looking at them right now, since we are starting to get some yield in bigger assets. what is happening? >> safer assets are right here. this whole reflation trade on the long end is coming into conflict with the search for yield. you are getting yield on the long end, but to your point earlier, and we will flip the boards to have a look at the snapshot of the markets. is an inflation overshoot the
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same as letting an economy run hot? the answer to the question is obviously no. on the latter, we are very far away. a lot of this is taking place with the backdrop of where you put your money amid everything you see here on your screen. commodity prices, 84 in the bloomberg commodity index. don't get me started on negative yielding debt. we know where prices and valuations are for equity markets. a lot of it comes down to this, you were talking to mark cranfield, inflation coming out today, in the options market, you are getting positioning around inflation. how sustainable is that? that takes us to this chart. the search for yield, when you look at asian junk bonds, if you don't believe the rally and sustained recovery in the economy coming soon, this is something to watch. ubs is calling it the biggest opportunity in your credit markets this year so far. the yield gap between asian junk and u.s. junk, if you are
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looking for that, you can find it right here. back to you. haslinda: thank you. let's get the first word news with karina mitchell in new york. >> malaysia is starting to ease restrictions after a month-long nationwide lockdown due to the pandemic. retail businesses, including clothing and cosmetics stores can reopen, while restaurants can accept dining and customers. the government will allow some sports teams to resume training. the lockdown is estimated to have cost the economy more than $170 million a day. the u.s. navy has carried out maritime exercises in the south china sea, indicating the biden administration will maintain u.s. opposition to beijing's territorial ambitions in the area. the theater roosevelt and the nimitz strike groups were operating from distance from the disputed islands, where china, vietnam, taiwan, and the
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philippines all claimed sovereignty. protests continue in myanmar, where security services fired rubber bullets and tear gas at demonstrators, who claim live rounds were also used. at least 20 people were hurt in the capitol. large protests broke out in the commercial center. a police convoy was attacked in mandalay. new zealand is the first country to sever all diplomatic ties with myanmar. the search for survivors of a collapsed dam in northern india continues, with more than 160 people still unaccounted for. at least 32 are known to have died when a glacier fell into a reservoir. the main rescue effort is concentrating on a hydroelectric plant, where more than 30 workers have been out of contact since the disaster first struck. no one has been pulled out since sunday. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and at quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm karina mitchell, this is
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bloomberg. rishaad: let's have a look at the latest on the stimulus efforts -- the relief efforts in washington. some senators clashing on the size of the support checks for the unemployed. let's go to su keenan. what are the sticking points democrats are trying to move forward with? what is this putative $1.9 trillion relief bill? >> it is a pretty big chunk of change. senior house democrats proposed sending $1400 relief checks to americans with up to $75,000 in annual income. essentially rejecting an earlier plan to cut back on or phase out the benefits to higher income individuals, which president biden had backed. it comes as of house continues to receive elements of the bill, for instance, billions more in restaurant aid and payroll protection for companies to keep
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people working, expansion of the jobless benefits, and gig workers and self-employed would qualify. that is one of the issues in the class, that the clashes within the democratic party and biden has signaled he is open to make the relief more targeted. the house plans to vote on the fi in full bill the week of february -- meanwhile, the president said he was anxious to get reaction from the titans of business to see if we can find common ground. at the end of the day, president biden met with the ceos of j.p. morgan chase, walmart, gap, lowe's, and others, essentially seeking support from them on this $1.9 trillion relief package. a very large package. he said as the meeting began, "i believe we are in a position to think big and move big." so again, they are trying to
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move this along but a few roadblocks in the way. haslinda: the impeachment trial now formerly underway. could that hamper the process? >> we are going to hear opening arguments noon on wednesday. as you said, it is now going forward. the first thing the senate did was to question the constitutional basis for a second impeachment trial of a former president. that clears the way for everything else that will follow. the vote was 56-44. some republicans rolled in on that. the democratic presentation was the former president had incited insurrection. they quoted directly from pieces of his speech on january 6th, and juxtaposed it with video. one crucial aspect of that speech was where trump said "if you don't fight like hell, you are not going to have a country anymore." and they used the video of the
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mob that stormed the capitol to pound home that point. there was a lot of criticism, even on the part of republicans on a trump's lawyers, who seemed ill prepared, at one point lost. someone described the trump attorneys as having the energy of a student who had waited until the night before to prepare for a school project. that did not go over well. someone close to the president was reportedly saying former president trump was angry when he had watched the ill prepared presentation. meanwhile, 17 republicans were required to cross and convict trump at the end of the trial. that is not clear. what is clear is the video that will be used in the trial will be state-of-the-art, highly compelling, and that is what makes this impeachment trial truly unique. back to you. haslinda: bloomberg's su keenan.
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rishaad: we are back. we are having a look at the weekly focus on equality. the united nations naming this year the international year for the elimination of child labor. that is as the national child labor organization estimates 159 children, most one in 10, are all work -- forced to work. the covid pandemic is threatening to bring the number down. one of the nobel peace prize winners for his work on the exploitation of children for financial gain, kailash satyarthi, joins us from a rehabilitation center he established in india. thank you so much for joining us. give us an idea of how bad the problem is, and how the pandemic has worsened things. >> thank you.
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while we are talking now, millions of children -- slavery. many of them are victims from trafficking. they are producing wealth at the cost of their childhood freedom, education, health, and future. and this is a big shame for everyone. these children are working at the worst job. every single child who is employed today is at the expense of one other job. that makes it a circle of -- child labor. most of them are working in the -- sector, they are also working in supply chain, loading, exporting goods, and so many other items which you and i are using. rishaad: you have had -- what do you do about it? you set up an initiative called
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the fair share to end child labor campaign. what does it do? is it having an impact? >> the children haven't gotten their fair share in education, policies, and international policies and audience. that results in child poverty, child labor, child trafficking, etc. so we are a collective initiative of the united nations , trade and teachers unions, parliamentarians, and almost all middle sectors and stakeholders, including some media, faith
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institutions, and leaders. so this is calling for fair share in -- locations by the country, audience support, and policies to ensure that children who are most marginalized and most ignored so far, get their fair share. and this campaign is demanding from the government, and we are also working closely with the businesses so that they should realize that the children are left out, then the sustainable growth is not possible. -- rishaad: a lot of western companies have been acutely aware of this problem, and they
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put in the mechanisms to stop them. are they doing enough? is it more indigenous exploitation, rather than foreign exploitation? >> if the problem is on -- the exploitation has always been there. but if the companies continue to engage children in their supply chain -- the good news, as you said, a large number of companies are feeling much more responsible for children, even for the people and the environment. so this demand is enticing in many parts of the world that there should be an international law to ensure child labor is not implied in the supply chain of these companies. the companies themselves are demanding, and that is coming in
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european union, germany, and many other places. that law has been introduced, and it is also calling for due diligence in the supply chain. so i can see a silver lining in this situation. haslinda: i want you to look at the situation in india, 10 million child laborers. india does have a law banning child labor, but also allows children to support their families outside school hours. there in lies the issue. that is what is being exploited. how do you address that? >> if we understand the law clearly, that no child is
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permitted to work in any hazardous occupation up to the age of 14. if they are between 14 and 18, they are allowed to work after this. so this law is quite good. the biggest challenge is the implementation of this law, and requires a lot of work that children are not implied, and are not attending schools and getting quality education. haslinda: you are suggesting 20% of the covid-19 funding be channeled to 20% of the most marginalized children of the world. how has reception been to that suggestion? >> we have gone a very good response. we have to see the real enforcement of this idea. but this tremendous support from
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all walks of life, and -- for example, the biden, american, will help in reducing poverty, and we hope helping in the idea of fair share for children and child poverty is reduced. it will set an example. it is kind of a lighthouse in this situation that the world is battling the pandemic situation. so we are trying to reduce child poverty. it will eventually help in pushing the idea for fair shares for children. of course, we demanded that children, the most marginalized and their families, should get 20% of the covid-19 response funds. unfortunately, only 0.13% out of
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$8 trillion have been the amount for the marginalized children and their families. this is unacceptable. the inequality and injustices that were already in our society have been exposed, and exasperated because of the pandemic. i think it is an alarming situation, and we have to address it. and the whole idea of fair share, the idea of equality and justice for humankind, and the future of humanity. haslinda: nobel peace laureate, kailash satyarthi, thank you for being with us. tokyo's olympic dreams are increasingly under threat after a top official said it undercuts public support and spark rare criticism from sponsors. the latest, just ahead. this is bloomberg. ♪
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sexist remarks undercut support and spark rare criticism from sponsors. let's go to isabel reynolds. is the olympics chief going to be forced to resign? >> he does look a bit less secure, even then last week after he made these comments disparaging women for talking too much and saying he did not want them in the organization of the olympics at a great extent. the olympic committee has come out with a fresh condemnation of his remarks saying the matter was closed after last week. a number of sponsors have come out with harsh criticisms of what he said. it is an unusual phenomenon in japan. most people are usually pretty second space when it comes to criticizing people in public. have had companies like insurance companies, ned, and so on distancing themselves from what he said.
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the public opinion over the weekend found 60% of respondents felt he was not a suitable person to be in this position. organizers set to have an emergency meeting possibly on friday to discuss the out for -- outpour. while they are not looking to -- him, it may be starting to look like the easier option. rishaad: overall, apart from the uproar over mori's comments, how are arrangements for the games going? >> a lot remains up in the air. we don't really know the direction of the pandemic and the number of infections and so on. tokyo remains under any emergency situation because of the situation in the hospitals, where there are quite a few serious patients still hospitalized.
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also, the vaccination rollout hasn't started, meaning it is unlikely most people will be vaccinated in japan before july. the big question is spectators, how many can be allowed, if any. it was supposed to be an olympics that had japan as a tourist destination, but they may be forced to keep spectators out altogether. all, it is not shaping up like anything of a joyous event japan had been counting on. rishaad: isabel reynolds in tokyo. you look at some of the go to markets. a bit of a turnaround. equities now on a bit of a tear upwards. this is what we have. the nikkei to 25 closing out the morning session. up by 1/10 of 1%. hang seng is the clear leader to the upside. as these stocks climb, we see tencent leading the charge. positive sentiment to reported
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changes of the company's gaming business. also helping things move upside is the change and turnaround in sentiment for the s&p 500. futures advancing after the benchmark held a six day winning streak when it came from all-time highs. and we also have investors with the potential for a stimulus fueled economic rebound. they are weighing that up against the destabilizing inflation that could be in the pipeline. what about southeast asian markets? let's go to has. haslinda: southeast asia is looking mixed. sti dragging the index lower. down by .2%. dbs among the biggest performance, saying it looks to have a better year in 2021. we have astra international among the gainers. two exclusives in the next half-hour, we speak to hong kong's food secretary on the
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haslinda: it is almost 11:00 a.m. in singapore and shanghai. welcome to ""bloomberg markets.": asia." rishaad: let's have a look at the top stories. reflationary earnings in focus. asia taking a breather. stocsk strongly -- stocks strongly in hong kong. haslinda: cpi in china fell back to deflation after new virus
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restrictions took a break on consumption. prices rose for the first time in a year. rishaad: covid numbers are falling. there are still concerns about the vaccine rollout. we discuss it with hong kong's food and health secretary, sophia chan. haslinda: and we assess the outlooks of global shipping as the virus hit support services and demands. we are joined by the chair of the shipping corporation of india. asian markets mostly higher. hong kong, china, all trading up more than 1%. reflation trade flunked -- trade front and center. the kospi trading up by 1.5%. unemployment rising to a 22 year high, exceeding the high forecast in our survey. the government says it is due to strict virus related curbs.
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a pretty up day for asia. rishaad: checking in on what is happening as the market opens up by .4%. -- consolidating amid global risks they are taking in currently. looking at the rupee, this is what we have at the moment. 72.88. -- below 30 against the dollar. the prospects of the indian trading day on the positive side, along with regional trends, as we see the nifty contract in singapore up by one third of a percent. what is going on in the background is the concern of investors wondering whether comments by the federal reserve and biden administration to let the u.s. economy run hot would spark up inflation. inflation that is destabilizing.
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that is something robert kaplan spoke to us. about earlier. . >> it would not be surprising to see the cyclical elements of inflation build. the question would be how persistent it is. for me, i think the jury is out on that right now. haslinda: we will hear more from that interview in a bit. our first guests says rising inflation expectations don't drive nominal yields higher in the same manner that would have been historically normal. the hate of aipac -- the head of apac ishares, thomas taw. what is the driver for real assets? >> well, nothing has really changed from last year. it is about central bank balance sheets, asset purchases, zero interest rates, negative interest rates. in terms of short-term concerns, we are getting out of the q4
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earnings season in the u.s. relatively unscathed, around 80% of reported companies so far have beat what the expectations were, given we have come out of the worst contraction of all-time, on a quarter on quarter basis. now the strongest rebound was difficult to predict. that was the short-term issue. as i mentioned, nothing has changed, in terms of the market moving in lockstep with central bank liquidity and interest rates. i think the question now is how far this goes, and does the rotation we started to see pickup in october of last year continue into some of the covid lifeguards we have seen so far this year? haslinda: how far will this reflation trade go? what would it take to derail this rally? you said if the rollout is completed, it is a sign that perhaps it could be a big
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correction. >> that is certainly not the base case. again, if you look at what has been driving markets higher, it has been around central bank liquidity and zero interest rates. so if we start to return to economic normalcy, which is the expectation for the second half of this year, gdp projections are very strong, earnings projections are very strong. what moves the market higher at that particular point. if the market starts to expect the fed or other central banks will take up, that could be because of concern for the market. that is not the base case, but it is certainly a possibility. haslinda: are markets underpricing higher commodity prices? oil is now persistently above $60. >> we have seen a big rotation
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into energy. it makes sense, given the market expecting a return to economic normalcy in the second half of 2021. we have seen the u.s. dollar rebound, which has caught a lot of people by surprise. but when you talk about this for a couple of months, the overstretched positioning on the dxy, and energy has done very well. how much further on $60 -- above $60 on brent we can get? most prices were around this level. so i don't think the expectation is we can move that much higher. this is reflation trade, money moving into broad emerging markets. a lot coming off of fixed income. i think a lot of it is being driven or used to fund reflation into equities, where 2021 was all about fixed income into october, november, and december, we saw that fixed income and equities, u.s. into emerging
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markets, a lot of interest in china bonds. the southbound flow coming into the hong kong market, as well. adding to the energy cyclicals and small-caps, which has been our preference to replay the reflation trade. and it seems there is a lot of momentum there. rishaad: i think there have been a few commentators that think this rise in u.s. nominal yield has not created something similar to the taper tantrum? what is your view of it? >> that was one of our key things for this year, that even if nominal yields pick up, we are looking at real rates. and real rates are still low. i think real rates will drive asset prices. the expectation that nominal yields can go up, but the fed will keep real rates relatively low is still pretty risk on.
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and i think that has become more consensus. we have been talking about the need to protect against inflation in the second half of last year into this year. i think that is getting more steam. and i think inflation is a concern. at the moment, the market still feels it is under control by central banks. rishaad: that is the hope, anyway. ultimately, we look at the vaccine programs, a world we have been living in for the last 12, 13 months, where good news is bad, and bad news is good for stock investors. if we did get a good rollout of the vaccine, that might be negative for markets, given people would think central bank support would go away as a consequence. >> that was my contradictory view. bad news being good news is not a 12, 13 month thing, it is a 10 year thing. that is a concern, in terms of a
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tail risk. if central banks do take -- which they will have to at some point, maybe not this year, maybe not even next year, but at some point and when the market does start to expect higher interest rates into the future, that could be reason for a pullback. we kind of make the point if you are pretty getting your investment view on interest rates being zero for the next five years, that could be a mistake. i think for us, we are pro-risk. i think you kind of have to be in equities at the moment. but you just have to have a balanced approach to your portfolio and have some kind of inflation hedge and risk off hedge in your portfolio, as well as the risk on. i mentioned small caps earlier, and places like commercial markets. rishaad: that was thomas taw joining us. let's look at what has been
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happening geopolitically, with concerns to tehran. sending a warning about its atomic ambitions to washington and other capitols. for that and more in the first word news, here is karina mitchell. >> iran's has pressure from the u.s. and other western nations could have them develop another nuclear weapon. the intelligence minister reiterated their position that their current atomic program is for peaceful purposes only. but the media in iran may be forced to change the strategy. he said moving towards nuclear weapons would be entirely the fault of those pushing iran into a corner. former nfl quarterback: is cosponsoring for brands within established in the u.s.. he will run the project with a private equity firm -- significant impact financially, culturally, and socially.
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it has called mission advancement and an additional 25 million units for $10 apiece. over to china. slipped into deflation last month as consumer prices fell by as much as .3% from december. expectations had been for zero. prices picked up come arising .3% from the decline a month earlier, in line with expectations. producer prices rose for the first time, but restrictions have dampened consumer demand in china in recent weeks. donald's second impeachment trial will continue after the senate ruled the processes -- process is constitutional. prosecutor argued he betrayed his -- and incited the storming of the u.s. capitol. his defense team says his speech was protected by the first amendment. the trial is almost certain to end in his acquittal. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and at quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in
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more than 120 countries. i'm karina mitchell, this is bloomberg. haslinda: still ahead, the who says covid probably did not come from a lab in wuhan. next up, more on their findings as they wrap up their investigation in china. rishaad: hong kong's vaccine committee is set to meet about sinovax approval, discussing the latest virus situation and inoculation rollout with the food and health secretary, sophia cha are you frustrated with your weight and health? it's time for aerotrainer, a more effective total body fitness solution. (announcer) aerotrainer's ergodynamic design and four patented air chambers create maximum muscle activation for better results in less time, all while maintaining safe, correct form and allows for over 20 exercises. do the aerotrainer super crunch.
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against the korean won. let's go to these ideas of higher inflation. bouts of it would not surprise the dallas fed president. he spoke to us at bloomberg, saying policymakers will continue using aggressive tools while the u.s. is in the teeth of the pandemic. >> if we are able to defeat the variants of the virus, and have a reopening through this year, that, along with fiscal support, will mean that we have strong gdp growth, we will make big improvements on unemployment, and it would not be surprising to see the cyclical elements of inflation build. and i think you will have some supply outages. we are already seeing evidence of it. semiconductors, mentals, -- metals, wood products, you might see it in oil markets.
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i don't think those problems will be persistent or long-term, but there is no question the cyclical forces will build, and over time, how strong are the accelerating forces of technology and technology enabled disruption, which have been muting inflationary pressure for some time? how do those cyclical and structural forces play out over time? that is what i will be watching for. the temporary jump in inflation or rise will not surprise me. the big question will be how persistent it is. i think the jury is out on that right now. >> they are talking about a package three times the size of what the cbo projects the output gap to be. is it too much? >> i will not surprise you, i will deliberately stay away from that topic. right now at the dallas fed, before any new package is
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enacted, our forecast for gdp growth this year is approximately 5%. it will be loaded toward the latter parts of the year, and it assumes we will be able to vaccinate the population broadly and defeat these variants and get more mobility and engagement. what i'm hearing in my district is what we need first and foremost, which is being discussed in these package debates, we need more money to help achieve these vaccinations. . that is the key right now. it will take mobile units, more personnel, but if you can get people broadly vaccinated and get mobility and engagement, that will open the small businesses and get a lot of these people that are out of work back to work. >> i know you and all of your colleagues have said it is too early to talk about when you
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might taper qe. i'm wondering how you might assess the danger of inflating a bubble in financial markets, which is what a lot of people on wall street are talking about now. and the $120 billion you are buying a month to keep markets functioning, when markets are functioning just fine, is there a point at which you think the danger of the markets bubble is bigger than the danger of pulling back a little bit? >> the way i make the trade-off, while we are in the teeth of this pandemic, and until it is clear we have weathered the pandemic, i think it is appropriate to be aggressive with our tools. however, once it is clear that we have weathered this pandemic, and we are not out of the woods by a longshot, once it is clear we have put the pandemic in the rearview mirror, and we are making financial progress toward full employment and price
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stability, i think we will be far earlier to be weaning off of these extraordinary measures. haslinda: dallas fed president, robert kaplan. up next, morning calls. a look at some of the top recommendations across markets. keep it here with us. this is bloomberg. ♪ when you switch to xfinity mobile, you're choosing to get connected to the most reliable network nationwide, now with 5g included. discover how to save up to $300 a year with shared data starting at $15 a month, or get the lowest price for one line of unlimited. come into your local xfinity store to make the most of your mobile experience. you can shop the latest phones, bring your own device, or trade in for extra savings. stop in or book an appointment to shop safely with peace of mind at your local xfinity store. so you're a small business, or a big one. you were thriving, but then... oh. ah. okay. plan, pivot. how do you bounce back? you don't, you bounce forward,
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haslinda: welcome back. it is time for our morning calls. let's stay with our reflation theme. sophie is here with us. not everybody is convinced after a breakout in inflation. sophie: the debate continues in this cyclical reflation switching to a long-term structural inflation. robert meade is not concerned about price risk over the next 12 months. he had to reduce the over inflation linked instrument, after the --
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it is said they are looking smoldering at current price levels. robert mead does not see this on the ground. and he says with policymakers likely to let inflation run hot before acting as they have telegraphed, he votes in the u.s., as well as australia. rishaad: those -- there is a lot of noise surrounding yen swap markets. why? sophie: we have seen global fund sales moving into the yen swap market. they are betting on higher u.s. yields. morgan stanley, naomi more ruger, doesn't expect between overseas and local swaps, that could tighten more, even turn positive on the inflation views we have. she said it can also be bear steepening, pressure on longer data jgb yields.
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the 10 year might be topping its march high. but she reckons the upside could be capped by demand, by local investors for the 20 year limited, 50 basis points, 30 year around 70. over at nomura, the chief strategist looking for jgb futures for any swap on the market. a halt in the drop we have seen, that could likely ease up the pressure we have seen on yen swap rates. rishaad: our markets expert, sophie kamaruddin. a who probe in wuhan has found the coronavirus most likely jumped to humans through an animal host, or frozen wildlife products. it rejects the theory it came from a laboratory leak. let's get the latest from rachel chan. what were the who's conclusions at the end of a highly publicized mission? >> they narrowed down the scenario of how the virus could
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have come into the human population to basically two routes, and animal and intermediary host, or frozen wildlife products sold in markets like the wuhan one, which was at the center of the outbreak last december. another finding that has been getting headlines is they have said they found no evidence of any large-scale outbreak in wuhan prior to december 2019. that is very much bolstering china's theory that it did not originate in china, but came in from somewhere else. haslinda: rachel, why are they controversial? >> the fact is the findings do align with things china has been saying for a long time. they do help encourage the idea that the virus did not come from china, but came from somewhere else. they also dismissed the lab theory, which we know people in the u.s. have talked about. it has become a very politicized
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situation. just because the findings are what china is saying, does it mean they are not scientifically rigorous? at the same time, the experts were only there for two weeks, they were only show things china was showing them. so it becomes very politicized. i don't think we will ever get a consensus on these findingss. -- findings. haslinda: rachel chang. let's do a latest of the business flash headlines. the electric vehicle startup backed by amazon and ford is set to be looking to go public as soon as september at evaluation of at least $50 billion. they have raised more than $8 billion to date from investors who expect the battery electric pickup and suv to perform well in the u.s. bloomberg understands they have been talking to bankers and the ipo could slip to next year. we are seeing signs some top chinese tech and internet companies remain on good terms with regulators in beijing. tencent won approval for new
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game titles, despite increasing scrutiny of successful e-commerce companies on the mainland. nettie's is the publisher for blizzard entertainment, tencent is distributing titles on behalf of wyatt games. southeast asia's biggest lender falling 3% in the first quarter. a lower leading income and higher provisionz amid the pandemic -- provisions amid the pandemic. slipping from $1.1 billion a year ago, missing estimates. the ceo says the result reflects the effect of the pandemic on industries and tourism to aviation, and he expect a strong rebound in 2021. chinese delivery giant asset holding is planning to buy carry logistics in a deal worth more than 2 billion u.s. dollars. they aim to take a 50% stake via a cash deal, and will keep the company listed in the hong kong exchange.
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shares of sf holding have been halted because of the announcement, when it resumed trading this morning. rishaad: sticking with markets into the china lunch break. day of gains at the moment. csi 300 up 1.5%. chinext up over 2%. optimism coming from more signs the economy is seeing its growth momentum continue. china's factory gate prices rising in annual terms in january for the first time in 12 months. the fastest rate of gains we have seen in those prices since may of 2019. ppi up .3% from a year ago. this is a slightly -- slightly lagging gain, some economists, as well. that is where we are with china markets heading towards the lunch break.
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haslinda: you are watching bloomberg markets: asia and we are counting down to the open in india. , futures pointing to a higher open up by 0.04%. now let's get to the first word news with karina mitchell in new york. >> the u.s. navy has carried out maritime exercises in the south china sea, indicating the bind administration will maintain america's opposition to beijing's territorial ambitions in the area. the theodore roosevelt and the nimitz striker were operating
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some distance from the disputed islands where china and the philippines all claim sovereignty. protest continue in myanmar where security services fired rubber bullets and tear gas demonstrators. at least 20 people were hurt in the capital while large protest broke up. a police convoy was attacked in mandalay. new zealand is the first country to sever all diplomatic ties with myanmar. the search for survivor of a collapsed dam in india continues with 160 people still unaccounted for. 32 are known to have died when a glacier fell. the main rescue is concentrating a hydroelectric plant where 30 workers have been out of contact since the disaster struck. no one has been pulled out since sunday. global news 24 hours a day on air and on bloomberg quicktake powered by more than 2700
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journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. back to you. rishaad: the world health organization investigation is trying to find the origins of the coronavirus. in rejects the theory that it came from a laborde teri == from a laboratory leak. 138 million vaccine shots have been given. hong kong officials will meet later to discuss whether to move china's sinovax vaccine for emergency use. it has the yes to publish stage three clinical trial data for the vaccines. joining us now is hong kong food and health secretary. thank you very much indeed for joining us. where are we with vaccine approval issue at the moment? which vaccines are likely to be
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approved first and when can we expect immunization in the territory? >> ok, we have signed a purchase with three types of vaccine, three platforms. so far we have already endorsed the biontech vaccine for emergency use. actually, we have already done that. and the delivery will be coming to hong kong by the end of febr uary, this month. we are working towards the development and also arrangement of vaccinating the priority groups, as well as the public through vaccination centers in the different districts in hong kong. the other two that we have signed advance purchase agreements is the sinovac. they submitted the data, the phase three clinical trial data to us. in fact, our experts, our panel of experts under the law will be
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looking at the data, will be reviewing the data today at a meeting. and then they will make recommendations to me and -- as the secretary for food and health to endorse the vaccine. obviously, if the outcome is positive, then we'll recommend to me for emergency use. as far as the thrid vaccine, that is the astrazeneca. the delivery date will be more or less like around june time. so, there is still time. we are closely communicating with them. going back to sinovac. if approved, for emergency use, then obviously we will arrange delivery to hong kong as soon as possible. we are working side by side, the
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arrangement of vaccinating our priority groups. rishaad: secretary, why is it taking so long? quite a few of these vaccines have already arrived in the territories. having these so-called lockdown ambushes where we have been testing people and why aren't we immunizing these people as well as testing them? >> i think we have, actually since last year we have been working very closely with the vaccine manufacture and signing these advance purchase agreements for the arrival to hong kong and also obviously before that we have to ensure these vaccines are safe as well as high quality and efficacy. all that work has been going on very swiftly. then we cannot control due to
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the international competition, we cannot control the delivery date, and also some of the developments in terms of submitting data for our reivew, -- for our review. so, we have been working side-by-side with the manufacturers. but at the same time in order to combat the epidemic, we cannot just sit there and wait for the vaccine. we would have to continue our prevention and control measures which include testing. and testing, we have been expanding our compulsory testing because we find that effective but not only the compulsory testing we have a three-pronged testing strategy. as well as voluntary testing. all of the three testing strategies are actually going side by side, but most recently,
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in order to curb the epidemic in hong kong, we have been lowering the threshold for compulsory testing. to have early detection of the cases so that we can early isolate them and treat them promptly. rishaad: secretary, i mean, how long do we expect these social restrictions to be maintained? since -- advising you some of them seem absolutely ridiculous. travel in a taxi with my family, two children under the age of six and with my wife but i cannot sit together with them in a restaurant. it sounds absolutely absurd. >> i think, talking about two. your first question is about the restrictions. we are issuing restriction testing orders to people, for example in the building. in our experience we have been
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trying to compress the time of the restriction. because it is important for us to test these people and also get the results before -- so we have been doing it in a cycle of 24 hours. within 20 for that -- so that we can release these people. so usually it is in the evening, 7 p.m. or 8 p.m. and then we get them to come down, come from the building to get tested and then they can go home to wait for the results. then the next morning, for example, at 7:00 a.m., if they have a negative result, they can be released. so these are some of the testing restriction testing declaration. but, at the same time, this is not our only strategy. we are also issuing compulsory testing notice to buildings. so that people are supposed to also get tested.
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but then there is no need for any restriction. so that type of testing -- for that type of testing. when you talk about sitting together, i guess you must be referring to the social distancing measures, because there are a number of these schedule -- under the law that we have been reducing the operating time of closing these places because of its risk. so based on the risk assessment. for example, eating, according to experts that is really high risk. so we have been compressing the time. rishaad: we live together. >> yes. yes. we understand that. we understand that. rishaad: do you? haslinda: secretary, come on.
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you identified -- you identified several vaccines to be rolled out in hong kong. will they get a chance to choose which vaccine they take? >> yes, yes. but, of course, it depends on the time of the arrival of the vaccine. so, we envisage, for example, the biontech vaccine, if the time of arrival is as promised, the end of february, then very shortly, we will be able to vaccinate our priority groups. for sinovac, it really depends on the outcome of the meeting today. it can be arriving at the same time or similar time as the biontech. then there are two vaccines available.
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for vaccination of the priority groups. obviously, people can choose. the third vaccine that we have signed advance agreements that they will be -- won't be arriving until june. if people would like to, for example, uh, take the astrazeneca vaccine, then they would have to wait until, when it arrives probably in june. haslinda: many people are wondering when -- many people are wondering when china will be reopened. with the vaccine rollout, when do you expect that to take place? >> the most important thing is not only the vaccine but also our situation. if our epidemic situation is improving, to an extent, whereby
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our discussion with reopening the border with china, of mainland china will be discussed again. then i think, you know, that we have this communication mechanism with them. we can continue to discuss with them when our situation, our epidemic situation is improving. haslinda: rish talked about the neighborhood lockdown's. the ambush lockdowns. is that likely to persist in hong kong? what is the strategy going forward? >> well, i think we have already done like about 26 operations and we have successfully found or detected about 20 cases from those operations.
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obviously, we will review the situation. as far as the compulsory testing of buildings, for example without the lockdowns, those w ill continue, because we have set some threshold. for example, if there is one case in the building, to be prudent and also for a preventive -- then we will issue compulsory testing notice. it should test the residents of the building. as far as the compulsory testing plus lockdown, that is what we call the restriction and testing declaration, rtd. obviously we would have to look at or reivew -- or review the risk of various aspects by the center for health detection. rishaad: secretary.
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>> and also epidemiological information. rishaad: secretary, when doyou expect things to return to normal in hong kong? what are the benchmarks that you will be using to normalize things? to get more help to the struggling retailers in the city? very quickly. >> yes, ok. the epidemic situation is now improving. so, what we are trying to do is ensure that things would be going down, you know, the number of confirmed cases with no, no, the number of cases would be decreasing. if everything goes smoothly on a downward trend, then as the chief executive has already announced yesterday, then it is highly likely if the situation
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remains going, going improving, then we will be able to start reopening some of the premises that we have closed before. and so that people's daily lives can resume. and, also, with the chinese new year, hopefully we will be receiving the vaccines. and so, the vaccination can start. it would give us hope to people in terms of the improvement of the epidemic situation. rishaad: secretary, very quickly. yes or no answers. will vaccinated person can be granted exemptions to quarantine should they arrive in the territory, very quickly? >> well, we are now reviewing the world health organization guidelines and also seekin --
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seeking advice from our experts in terms of what, whether vaccination can do to -- the period. right now i think the vaccination is for protecting oneself. haslinda: secretary chan, thank you so much for your time today. that was our exclusive interview with hong kong's food and health secretary sophia chan. we take a look at where we are in terms of markets. asia trending higher. hong kong, china, philippines all trading up. the nikkei 225 -- in positive territory. japan retreating from recent big gains. tech all down. some have been questioning if some gains are sustainable. we have the singapore lower by .10%. some stocks we are watching.
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toyota among them. today's press conference set for 12:30. in the lead up to those numbers. honda, nissan out with results on tuesday. honda raised its profit outlook despite the shortage. and we have mitsubishi motors trading up by more than 2%. that you have it. rishaad: up next, a shipping corporation of india is joining us to discuss an industry under pressure. containers and short supply and freight prices soaring. there is still concern about its impact on the world post pandemic recovery. ♪
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>> many of those containers pass through here -- singapore, the world's second-largest port. it is so crucial the government has made it a national priority to vaccinate all 10,000 frontline maritime workers against covid-19. the industry accounts for 20% of the country's gdp. but the industry is under pressure. as demand for specific product changes and supply chains adjust. the uneven recovery from the pandemic has created a shortage in containers where they are needed most. and driving bottlenecks, send ing prices soaring. the cost of shipping from shanghai to los angeles has risen from $1300 in march 2020 to $4100 in january this year.
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the price to rotterdam has skyrocketed to more than $9,000. they are signs the cargo crunch may be easing and the industry is watching closely. chinese new year's marks where rates are renegotiated for the next year. companies must choose to swallow the financial hit. it's a decision that can bring new headwinds of the global economic recovery.
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haslinda: indian state run shipping company is putting pressure at major ports --as a shortage of shipping containers sense freight prices soaring. it is the only segment that showed revenue growth in the third quarter with every other area posting declines. joining us for an exclusive interview is of shipping corporation of india, the first woman to lead that group. good to have you with us. first off, when do you see demand and supply balancing out? >> i beg your pardon. i cannot really hear your question. could you come again? haslinda: yes. when do you see demand and supply balancing out? >> with respect to the demand
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and supply, we've seen a tremendous amount of disruption that has already been put in the third quarter. and considering the second wave and the third waves which are currently ongoing on the western side, western globe, i think it is going to take a little bit of time for the demand and supply to ease out. because by the manufacturing activity on the eastern side is picking up in the suppliers -- however, there is congestion on the western ports. and that is causing a lot of demand and supply im balance with respect to the container equipment, and that is what is we've been watching in the third quarter. tremendous pressure on the freight rates because of this demand and supply imbalance. i don't expect this to really
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ease out really soon. i think it's going to take a couple of months. whereas i also am really aware of the fact that -- are watching us and it required -- if required there could be intervention. haslinda: having said that, what factors will come into play? going into this interview we talked about how your container business is the only sector doing well. what is the outlook for the rest of the segments? >> yes, our container segment did do really well. i think that would be unique for the shipping corporation of india. that has been a global trend considering the performance of the container business for almost a decade now. i think it was an unprecedented up surge which was seen by all
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liner companies. going forward for the next two quarters at least, i see the same upsurge for the liner segment. on -- the segment, we have seen a complete flattening out. our operating costs are becoming a challenge for most tanker companies. for us in shipping corporation of india, i consider -- the segment is going to continue to be in black, even in the following quarter. despite the pressure. because we are doing a lot of -- in the indian subcontinent. on the offshore segment, prices have started increasing so the prospects are improving. shipping corporation of india has tried to diversify into some other customers, bringing more stability to offshore segments. the bulk segment is also doing
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fairly reasonably well, and the challenge for me is that i am sure that all of my port segments are in black in the next quarter. rishaad: some analysts are talking about-- these huge container ships, for people who don't know. lower than your operating expenditure levels. what do you -- what are you doing to address this? >> so, like i said, that while our, that's not only for us. that would be for any tanker operator today that the freight rates are low. you can see both the baltic and -- as well as the queen indices they are at bottom out levels. so, what we are doing, like i said, that we have certain
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contracts. we've got our vessels on a fair balance of time charter -- so that sort of balances out our profitability and the performance of the tanker segment. and i also informed you that we are doing a lot of -- rates, which is helping us to balance out the normal bottoming out of the freight rates which we have seen. so, we think we will be able to stay in the black on the tanker segment. rishaad: i want to get a sense of the post pandemic world. what do you see there? how will shipping change, and will you need new vessels? >> yes. i think the post pandemic world is going to be a world which is
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going to be highly digitized. i think the pandemic has brought in a lot of digitization and the maritime sector was slow in terms of technology adaption -- adoption in terms of the environmental concerns and the technology, i anticipate and see that there are going to be substantial demands. the lines are coming up in terms of environmental compliances. and so, the post pandemic era is going to see a lot of technology adoption and changes in the maritime -- haslinda: we have to leave it there. thank you for your time. joining us for an exclusive interview. the world's largest container carrier will report earnings later today. we will speak to their ceo about
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emilm emily chang in san frano. coming up, tech earnings continue. twitter reporting user growth missed estimates. lyft meantime dropping 44% in revenue. while cisco tops expectations, the company failing to make sales inroads in other areas. shares declining after the bell. some of the biggest names on wall street and silicon valley,
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