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tv   Bloomberg Surveillance  Bloomberg  February 15, 2021 6:00am-7:00am EST

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stocks surged to records. bitcoin starting just shy of $50,000. u.s. markets are closed for presidents' day. europe continues to lag behind in vaccinations. -- says the rollout will be critical for the growth forecast. the spac revolution continues as the former unicredit ceo is heading the mix. good morning and welcome to "bloomberg surveillance." i'm francine lacqua, tom keene with the day off. in the last couple of seconds, we had breaking news out of the u.s. this has to do with the price of oil and the price of natural gas and that arctic snap in the u.s.. just moments ago, we heard that the cold weather put the -- cut
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the oil output by one million barrels a day. let's get to the bloomberg "first word news" with leigh-ann gerrans. leigh-ann: -- the top four priority groups, including the over 70 group. with 15 million vaccinations, the u.k. has given at least one shunt over 25% of the adult population. it adds to pressure on promised are boris johnson to begin reopening the economy. now japan will begin covid-19 vaccinations on wednesday. government has agreed to by the pfizer vaccine for 72 million people this year. the prime ministers says japan needs to make sure infections are falling before canceling the state of emergency currently in place for 10 regions, including tokyo and osaka. oil rallied high on month -- hi on fears that -- may disrupt
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flows of the united states's largest shale patch. it may be impacted by well shutdowns. disrupted road transports and power outages. the arctic blast gripping the u.s. is threatening to shrink crude supply and unleash a rush for everything from propane to heating oil. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by over 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm leigh-ann gerrans. this is bloomberg. francine? francine: leigh-ann, thank you so much. the focus on bitcoin but also -- reaching $30,000 for the first time since 1990. let's get a check in with the markets are doing. stocks rising as the vaccine rollout is slowing, the virus outbreaks seem to be -- i'm also showing wti.
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that top six dollars a barrel. u.s. markets are shut for presidents' day. exchanges in china and hong kong also closed on monday but the pound reaching the highest since april 2018 and bitcoin flipping after a weekend rally that took the cryptocurrency to a record of almost $50,000. in a historic second impeachment trial, former president donald trump is been acquitted by the senate on charges of inciting a riot on the capital. the vote was 57-40 three, which fell short of the two thirds majority needed for conviction, with some republicans breaking from the party by voting guilty. this is causing some to worry about the increased friction amongst republican party. >> the trump movement is alive and well. people believe he brought change to washington. policy wise, it was long overdue. all i can say is the most potent force in the republican party is president trump. we need trump plus.
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>> there is no question, none, that president trump is practically and morally responsible for provoking the events of the day. >> our constitution and our country is more important than any one person. i voted to convict president trump because he is guilty. francine: joining us now is stephanie baker, good morning to you. when you look at what happened on saturday, was it a good or a bad day for donald trump? stephanie: on one side, it was a bad day. it was the most bipartisan vote for impeachment in u.s. history, and that blistering attack on trump from mitch mcconnell will resonate, where he said he is morally and practically responsible for the events and should be held responsible, perhaps in the criminal court. on the flipside, if you look at
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it, 80% of republicans in the senate voted to acquit him, and remain under his grip and fearful of what it means going forward. you have already seen the seven republicans that voted to convict him suffering blowback from publicans at home -- republicans at home. going forward, it shows that trump retains a hold on the republican party, and it remains to be seen whether or not he can launch a run for the presidency in 2024. it does look like he will try to be a player in the primaries in two years time, backing challengers to some of the republicans who voted to convict him. he will be sort of the kingmaker of the republican party, which is split down the middle between
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old-style republicans of the bush and reagan vein, and those who are steadfastly loyal to trump. francine: what does that mean, is this going to be a battle of the moderates with the more extremists in the republican party? at the party even split up? -- will the party split up? stephanie: that is certainly a possibility. as long as trump retains his grip and does have a firm hold on the republican national committee, i don't think -- i think most republicans realize it is not in their interest, and mcconnell will try to retake control of the party and steer it to that more traditional direction, but it remains to be seen how whether or not trump's hold on the party wanes over time or grows.
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the biggest majority of republicans have shown they are operating outside of agreed constitutional democratic norms, by not going ahead and convicting him or even being willing to censure him. it bodes badly for biden's attempt at bipartisanship going forward, if they can only get seven republicans to convict, when they were the victims of the attack. i don't see how biden will be able to get republicans on board to back far more controversial things like immigration reform or additional big spending on things like infrastructure. francine: is there a moderate challenger within the republican party, that wants to try and get it away from trump that could be convincing enough to try and pull the republican party on the other side? stephanie: that is a great question. at the moment, i don't see
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anyone that has the kind of charisma can take on trump within the republican party. mitt romney is very much in the minority. some of the other moderate senators are retiring. things could change in the next two years. with trump denied his social media platforms to push his ideas, does he wane? it kind of depends on what he does next, and whether or not he does face serious challenges in a court. there is a case against him about his call to the georgia secretary of state, pressuring him to switch votes. he is facing additional charges in new york state over his financial dealings. how that pans out could determine whether or not he is able to focus on his political future or is just left to defend himself against these various
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legal cases. i don't see anyone that can really take him on, in any serious way, within the republican party. francine: stephanie baker, looking at the senate impeachment trial. coming up later today, a conversation with the greek reminisced are -- with the greek prime minister. we will talk about budget, vaccinations and reopening the greek economy for the holidays. that is at 3:30 p.m. in london . this is bloomberg. ♪ (announcer) do you want to reduce stress? shed pounds? do you want to flatten your stomach? do all that and more in just 10 minutes a day with aerotrainer, the total body fitness solution that uses its revolutionary ergonomic design to help you to maintain comfortable, correct form. that means better results in less time. you can do an uncomfortable, old-fashioned crunch
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francine: this is bloomberg surveillance. i am francine lacqua in london, tom keene is off today.
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our guest, thank you so much for being on and for your words of wisdom that you put into the market on a daily basis. when you look at the reflation trade, where does this go? what can be the reflation change, if not stop the slow down? sebastien: the way to look at it is we are in a overshoot that is linked to higher growth and fiscal packages coming out of the u.s.. a lot of liquidity coming out of the fed. the same thing from europe, and that propels everything as a function of better demand going forward. a very nice story, but it is a bit of an overshoot and that overshoot can last a long time. the reason why is it lacks a trigger to self-destruct or correct in a very large way. what is happening is that the
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u.s. treasury yield reacts to the large fiscal package by steepening and as we get the u.s. treasury gap, it sends a shockwave in the equity market. that happens now, and that will happen far more in the second half of the year, when we will have all of these fiscal packages and liquidity being pumped into the system. the question in the market being, the answer is quite persistent and you can get relatively high prices that way, to last for a significant amount of time. that means the fed eventually will react to it and the market will try to anticipate this. the second half of the year should be a much more volatile time, but fortunately for everyone concerned, we do need some madness and it can last maybe one or two years. francine: sebastien, you say the
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fiscal packages create some momentum in the u.s. economy. what does that mean for equities specifically? are there industry groups you find attractive at these levels, given what we were talking about with u.s. stimulus and reflation? sebastien: growth is always interesting. there are a lot of possibilities. the second thing to focus on is what is not working out so well and what should work out. there is probably an infrastructure package coming in. one of the largest asset managers in the business, what they point out is what they offer is very cheap relative to what is off the market, what is private in terms of infrastructure, and there is a gap in valuation that is still not exploded. if you like something which is defensive and cheap, go with infrastructure. francine: where do you see dollar dynamics heading, sebastien?
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you had a great note saying about -- talking about a coming confrontation with china. are we underestimating this dynamic? sebastien: if you talk to somebody who is nice and pleasant and not aggressive, you get someone who sometimes carry a large stick with them, that is the u.s. government. look at the practice of representation and forget what is their mandate, and their mandate is to grow the economy, particularly for those in the minority and in difficulty. to help achieve that, there is monetary policy, fiscal policy but also confrontation, which i know is coming. the chinese will look at it and assume that this is all being capped by foreign reserve interventions and react to it by stating that china is a currency manipulator, and therefore take
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as a consequence, a series of steps which will be in retaliation to china. it is wrong to think that because they are nice, they will not be very hard, and that will create a shock through the markets but right now, we are safe for another three months. francine: sebastien, do you expect the biden administration to be harder on china than the trump administration was? sebastien: smarter and harder. smarter because it is a smarter administration, to some extent. and harder because they want to achieve something that they desperately need to achieve with the next elections, and that has to start in the coming months, and that has to start by forcing the chinese to let their currency depreciate. they are intervening, they have always said that they --
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they need to let their currency move. francine: sebastien thank you so much, sebastien galy will stay with us. we will be be on bitcoin coming up. coming up, -- chief investment officer. that conversation on dollar dynamics. that is 7:00 p.m. in -- 7:00 in so you're a small business, or a big one. you were thriving, but then... oh. ah. okay. plan, pivot. how do you bounce back? you don't, you bounce forward, with serious and reliable internet. powered by the largest gig speed network in america. but is it secure? sure it's secure. and even if the power goes down, your connection doesn't. so how do i do this? you don't do this. we do this, together. bounce forward, with comcast business. (announcer) do you want to reduce stress? shed pounds?
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francine: -- leigh-ann: this is
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"bloomberg surveillance." i am leigh-ann gerrans with the bloomberg business flash. australia and facebook are nearing deals to pay domestic media companies for news. talks were held over the weekend, adding that great progress was made. planned legislation would force them to pay media companies with google threatening to such -- google threatening to shut down its search engine in the country. german automakers are worried that new travel restrictions could impact supply lines. bmw and volkswagen have plants in bavaria that depend on parts from the czech republic. only german citizens and residents are being allowed to enter the country, from areas where more infection variance -- more infectious variants of the coronavirus are present. -- after a scathing report from
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regulators. it found the australia casino and -- australian casino operator was guilty of money laundering and was not fit to hold a license in sydney. the inquiry recommended an overhaul of management, governance and culture. that is your bloomberg business flash. francine: leigh-ann, thank you so much. still what us to talk about the markets is -- still with us to talk about the market is sebastien galy. thank you so much for staying with us. you are one of the first analysts looking at bitcoin years ago. it has come along way since you started talking about it. what had it become? sebastien: i started when it was about $100 and specifically from the point of view of a retail investor, whether it was appropriate or not appropriate and i was mostly on the negative side because what it was based on was a system that would benefit the holders of bitcoin
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at the expense of the others. however if it did work out, everybody would benefit. the second element is that it relied on the fact that you knew who was coming into the market, to be able to anticipate the wave of demand and so the price would rise ahead of that and create -- which has since exploded upwards. you would come up with numbers which are extremely large and what has been happening over the past few weeks -- and of course you can come up with higher levels and the way to evaluate in a clean way is to say all of these people come in and supply is very inelastic. this is what has been happening.
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the price has been exploding higher. the question is, when does this overshoot and stop? it stops when bitcoin has reached critical mass in the economy, and then we go through a very significant crunch, a very painful one. it then depends on the fact that it is replaced or not by another asset. we know about private money in the war of secession after world war i, it was very popular. once the supply of the coins is there, it will start to disappear very quickly. there are thousands of credit moneys that will fail. francine: i have to say, i am looking back at my charts. i think it was that $100 in
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2013. that is when i found bitcoin at $100. if it becomes more mainstream, what does it take to go through the correction you are talking about? the more mainstream it becomes, if you get some kind of valuation, does it just push higher for the simple reason of what it is transforming into? sebastien: it fits a need in the market. you can have inflation tips or hedges. you can have bonds and some gold. but what you are missing is a place where all of that greed is being funneled into one asset class. this is what bitcoin does very well. the same way we had gold before. you have to given credible credit through their success. they are just very good at their job of selling things.
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it is an extremely well done job and as we spread around the price and -- as we spread around, the price moves higher. francine: sebastien thank you so much. sebastien galy of nordea asset management joining us. coming up, hugo rogers of deltek bank. he will also talk about dollar and why not pound. pound is on the back of vaccinations in the u.k. doing better than expected. we will have a full roundup of your covid-19 as we are tracking the camp -- as we are tracking the pandemic. stocks are at record highs, and oil is climbing because of the arctic cold snap in the u.s. this is bloomberg. ♪
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francine: this is "bloomberg surveillance." i am francine lacqua in london. tom keene has the day off.
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joining us now is hugo rogers, deltec bank and trust, chief investment officer. thank you for joining us. i am looking at reflation and also what you are expecting. you are underweight duration, expecting interest rates to continue rising as the vaccine led recovery kicks in. what else do you like right now? hugo: actually, we are using that underweight duration, that bearish view on government bonds to buy equities, largely. we also have significant -- significant exposure to alternatives. there is a much broader exposure than we have had in two years. we like winners but we also liked recovery plays as well. quality value is a good place to make investments for 2021 as the earnings recovery comes through. francine: what if the vaccine
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led recovery slows down? should we care about the massive stimulus coming from the u.s.? hugo: that is an excellent question because the vaccine led recovery will be strong, but it won't be complete because covid is going to be endemic, with booster jabs each year. it is going to be coming through in waves. you see what is happening in europe right now, where the vaccination program is going slower and recovery will be prolonged as a result. that is one piece of advice. also don't ditch your winners. we think both can work in unison, the winners and the
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recovery plays. we are advocating for balance, advocating for a breath we have not held for a couple of years. francine: hugo, when you look at the mind-boggling difference in terms of u.s. stimulus compared to europe, and we had a great note over the weekend from eric of unicredit. what does it mean about where you want to put your money in europe? is it too late for you to ramp up stimulus? hugo: it is too slow, no matter what the number is, it is too slow, because of the bureaucratic process. $750 billion in euros that was earmarked for the recovery program has a really slow route to market and people and businesses. the u.s. had the same kind of problem with its funding lending
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program. it is a problem of using the banks as a conduit for this stimulus. europe, the ponderous nature of the european union coming back to bite it again. the u.s. to melissa's going to be much more decisive, and the whole discussion we are having right now on stimulus, what it does for us is it bridges the gap as we go through the vaccination program, so that even if there are fits and starts, if we recover in waves, we have a large block of pent up demand and one point $4 trillion of unspent savings in the u.s. there is a pop that is good -- $1.4 trillion of unspent savings in the u.s. there is a pop. there will be a vaccine and recovery. in the meantime, you can buy the
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cyclical assets in europe. international trade is picking up. the chinese are the first out of this and have one of the biggest stimulus is, very early -- stimuluses, very early. francine: hugo, are you buying bitcoin? hugo: we have owned bitcoin for quite a long time. it started as a relatively modest size. we haven't sold any, but that is more to the point. the most important change we see is that people have moved from asking their financial advisors and professionals why owned bitcoin? why not own a bit of bitcoin? as that conversation changes, we have institutional clients and, let's call them, not millennial investors starting to make
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investments and moving the price a long way. francine: i like that. not millennial investors. hugo, what is bitcoin right now in the portfolio? do you expect it to be volatile? could it go to 3000 as well as 100,000? how do you look at the path forward, given possible regulation on some of the ups and downs we could or could not see in bitcoin? hugo: we started with a fairly modest position, because we saw it as a way of diversifying real alternative assets. we had large positions in gold and that -- and betting that real -- that declining real interest rates were going to be slowing. our first move was a small diversification of our real asset holding, and that waiting had paid deference to the volatility you were talking about just now.
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that position has grown, and what we have seen is that the larger the bitcoin market cap, the larger the actual price, the more it is dragging in other investors. it's gravity -- its gravity is so important in a market where algorithms are looking at factors to change. the larger it gets, the more robust the investment comes from. francine: how do you see it developing, going forward? do you have exposure to other cryptocurrencies? hugo: we don't, although we have been studying -- studying a theory him as well -- studying ethereum as well. if it is a similar allocation to gold, it reaches $144,000.
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we think it is way too early to try and generate a price. but we can see is elephants trying to get into a small room through a narrow corridor. when the institutions come in, and so few of them are involved. that is the thing to note. it has been treated with such steps as a for such a long time, that so few institutions are involved. we are only just seeing the announcements from mastercard, paypal. these are recent announcements. more will follow, and as the elephants clamor to get into the small room, they will move the price even further. up is where we say the price is going to be. the number is too early to come up with. francine: hugo, thank you so much. hugo rogers, deltec bank and trust chief investment officer. let's get straight to the "first word news." leigh-ann: cleanup has become injured -- has begun to japan
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after an earthquake struck off of tsushima over the weekend. no deaths were reported, but about 150 people were injured. cover was cut to almost one million households. the trimmer occurred just one month before the 10 year anniversary of the 2011 earthquake and tsunami that led to a meltdown at three reactors of the fukushima nuclear plant and left about 19,000 people dead, or missing. british prime minister boris johnson is backing president joe biden's call for china to make available more data related to the outbreak of covid-19. the world health organization investigators, who recently visited china, concluded it was extremely unlikely that the coronavirus leaked from a lab in the city of wuhan. the white house has expressed deep concerns about the probe, saying the findings must be free from intervention by the chinese government.
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the u.k. is stepping up its effort to encourage investment in renewable energy and sustainable agriculture. the government is launching green financial health in london that will start work in april. the mission is to provide data and analytics to financial institutions, to support their investment decisions. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by over 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am leanne garris. this is bloomberg. francine: coming up litter today, the congress -- a conversation with the greek promised her. the conversation will be on covid-19 vaccines and the gradual reopening of the greek economy. i think they were asking about passport vaccines. that interview at 10:30 in new york. this is bloomberg. ♪
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francine: this is "bloomberg
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surveillance." you are looking at the principal room. coming up today, the jaguar-land rover ceo, thierry bollore. this is bloomberg. ♪ this is bloomberg surveillance. i am leigh-ann gerrans with the bloomberg business flash. the former unicredit ceo plans to raise money for a spac. the new firm will invest in financial services, including wealth management. he spoke exclusively with bloomberg surveillance. >> [indiscernible] leigh-ann: the company is also
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backed by the ceo of a luxury firm. now shares of vivendi rose the most on record. the paris-based company shares climbed as much as 24%, the biggest ever one day gain since they were listed back in 1989. shares in the majority holder of vivendi jumped as much as 80%. the company has planned to lift -- list the decision -- list the division by 2023. some changes at the top of ubs. the bank has named the soul head of its investment banking unit. the copresident is leaving to head the euronet stock exchange. the two men were put in charge as copresidents. since taking over in 2018, they have shaken up the units,
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splitting it into two segments, global banking and global markets. but is your bloomberg business flash. francine? francine: leigh-ann, thank you. bitcoin is sagging after hitting a record $50,000 over the weekend. social capital founder chief executive -- is known for being a disruptive force in silicon valley and on reddit. in a front row interview, we ask him about some of his all-time popular tweets about bitcoin at $100,000 and $50,000. ♪ >> i can't take all the credit. we have a group chat and we were talking about random things over the summer with the pandemic and one of my friends, rob goldberg was the one who said it and it
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started off a light bulb and i wrote it and published it. it is very tongue-in-cheek. i did another one that said when bitcoin gets to $40,000 or $100,000, i'm going to buy goldman sachs. these are all jokes. this is a part of my personality that some folks don't get, which is this is just tongue-in-cheek. i never thought i would be here. i'm enjoying the ride. every minute of this feels like a dream. >> i admire you for not taking yourself too seriously. the bitcoin thing is very serious. north of $40,000. you can't buy the hamptons yet or goldman sachs. >> can i tell you something about bitcoin which is so important? i think bitcoin is important because it shows the fragility of the traditional financial infrastructure. if you look at the quantity and the size, the real question i
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think people should be asking ourselves is bitcoin becomes the de facto reserve currency, that basically displaces gold. what replaces the u.s. dollar? here is right want you to bear with me for a second. it is not bitcoin that replaces the u.s. dollar. it is a stable coin. what does that mean? in less empty language, there are companies around the world that are replacing one fixed u.s. dollar with one digital token of u.s. dollar. by simply making that small abstraction, they are able to completely build financial rails that did not exist before. on ramps and off ramps to trading, asset management, banking, payment processing. there is a revolution happening. it is not as much in the unit states because people don't see it because the financial
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infrastructure is so robust. when you look in the developing world or any market where there is a form of currency manipulation or currency mobility, that is the future. bitcoin is a canary in the coal mine for a completely virtual, largely anonymous financial reality. i think it is a very important trend. francine: that was the social capital founder and chief executive, speaking with bloomberg's erik schatzker. coming up next, we continue tracking covid-19 with joshua sharfstein. that is coming up shortly. this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> we have no reason to think that they are ineffective against any variant of the virus. in protecting people against
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serious illness and death, that is a very important consideration for us. one of the features of oxford-astrazeneca that has been confirmed by the scientists is it reduces transmission between people. it is a 57% reduction in transmission as a result of these vaccinations. francine: that was boris johnson, speaking to cbs over the weekend. the u.k. prime ministers sitting to announced plans to ease national pandemic restrictions -- prime minister recently announced plans to ease national pandemic research and's. -- national pandemic restrictions. the former ceo of unicredit was also talking about spac's. we want to talk more about the pandemic and the vaccination.
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in the meantime, let's just look at the markets because it is a good idea to look at the markets on president's day, when volumes are tighter than usual. we will have a look at what that means and exactly where you see value. we spent a lot of time looking at dollar and also looking at the nikkei 225, reaching something that was extremely important because it touched 30,000 for the first time since 1990. let's go back to what we are seeing in covid-19 and the pandemic. joining us today is joshua sharfstein, the johns hopkins bloomberg school of public health dean. how do we know what variants are they are, before they hit us hard -- are there, before they hit us hard? i heard we can test our blood, to figure out who has had what.
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is that the right way to identify these variants before they become a problem? joshua: i think it is going to be part of routine surveillance. it should be that a certain percentage of positive tests are routinely sequenced, and then you can get a picture of what is happening with the different variants. that allows for modeling as well. francine: how do you see this developing? are the vaccines that we have now ok to deal with 60% to 70% of the variations, or do we just not know? joshua: it seems there is some data, for example from the south african trials, something the fda is going to be looking at. i also think there is data from the lab. we will see the actual results
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as variants start to spread. i think generally, people think the vaccines are going to provide a good amount of protection in most cases, and that may be enough, when combined with other public health measures to drive the prevalence down. at the same time, i think it is certainly smart, and there will be a lot of research into updating the vaccine, to be able to account for variations of the virus. francine: dr. sharfstein, given the doses we have now to deal with people in the hospitals and given the vaccines should get rid of this worst-case scenario in getting sick or dying from it, how are we doing? the progress we have done is pretty incredible. would you have thought this imaginable even six months ago? joshua: i don't think people
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realistically thought we would have vaccines this effective when the pandemic started or even six months ago. it is a testament to a few different things. first of all, to the science and scientists, the people who were able to put all of the funding necessary to make this happen, but also to the regulators who despite a global pandemic, insisted on a really well-designed clinical trial to really answer the questions that we had. does this work among older adults? all of those things in the united states were done, the fda reviewed the trials and that gave a huge boost to people understanding the vaccine. it is not good enough to have a vaccine if people don't know it is good. that is where a strong glow tory agency setting high standards comes in. francine: thank you so much for joining us, joshua sharfstein. one of the questions we will
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have for him the next and we have him is should we think about mitigating -- you can also tune in every day for our exclusive conversation with johns hopkins experts for a inside look at battling covid-19. the nikkei 225 touching numbers for the first time since 1990. we look at u.k. equities and the pound advancing admitted vaccine progress -- advancing amid vaccine progress. crude oil at a 13 month high. we will look at wti futures rising. up next, this is bloomberg. ♪
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♪ without the united states from president's day and without china and hong kong as well overnight, but did not stop the nikkei 225, though, touching levels we have not seen in more than 30 years. in europe we see stocks in fine form, 1.1%, getting a boost in particular from the london market from strengthening oil prices. same applies on the cac 40 as well. lots of talk about in terms of what is going on in the media space and selling


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