tv Bloomberg Surveillance Bloomberg February 18, 2021 7:00am-8:00am EST
>> we started pricing for 2021, so we have a long way to go. >> when houses have resources to spend, they ultimately will. >> this will be a global recovery for the same reason it was a global recession. >> every trade is being driven by negative real yields. >> at the core of it, how yields are predicting faster growth -- high yields are pritikin faster growth. -- hi yields are predicting faster growth -- high yields are predicting faster growth. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: from new york city for our audience worldwide, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance ," live on bloomberg tv and radio. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. 7:00 a.m. new york time, 92 way -- 90 minutes away from initial jobless claims in the u.s.
tom: the data is interesting. it is a churn today, with equities off a bit. can we say we have taken a pause and moved to higher yields? jonathan: not now. yields are off two basis points. i get what you are saying. tom: what is the problem this morning? lisa: well, you know. [laughter] jonathan: are we taking a break? tom: we are at -- we were at 1.33% an hour ago. jonathan: he's asking what is going on with me. i've got no idea what is going on with him. lisa: we can work it out on the break. jonathan: good morning to you all. equity futures down 15 points, coming in 0.4%. in the bond market, yields higher. we are off the highs of today's session i guess is the point tom is trying to make. tom: thank you. [laughter] jonathan: euro-dollar, $1.2071.
an energy crisis in america. lisa: we have seen those prices more than double over the past year. meanwhile, you were talking earlier about this idea about economic data surprising to the upside in a dramatic way. today will be interesting to see whether we get a similar type of upside surprise to the initial jobless claims coming out in a power -- in about an hour and a half. we are expecting a decline from last week, but still incredibly high and indicating a great degree of pain in the labor market. at 11:00 we get u.s. crude inventories. usually no one pays that much attention. i am very interested in how much they have been drawn down as production comes online, but the natural gas inventories that we also get. huge distortions and some of the pricing which is raising interesting questions from a practical sense, as well as a market sense. we have that u.s. house financial services committee on
the robin hood stock tum ult. potentially there is headline risk. we could get some sense of regulation and disclosures. . i guess i care in the sense that i am trying to work out what jonathan: -- jonathan: i guess i care in the sense that i am trying to work out what the lawmakers are pushing for. tom: the only thing i can think that would be untold and responsible would be to talk about was there anything the various, any agreements between robinhood as they went for salvation in terms of billions of dollars. but you are not going to get that at a hearing. jonathan: i totally agree with you. no one is going to say, you're right, there was collusion. tom: i want to go back to claims. i think we forget it is the single immovable force within the stimulus debate. the survey today is 770,000, and on the last day of january last
year, that statistic was 201,000. there's no other statistic that matters for the politicians. jonathan: we are not there yet. the labor market hasn't healed enough, and that is why the fed is not going to make a move because that is the ultimate priority for the federal reserve, the labor market. we talked about this a number of times. 10 million fewer people employed now versus 12 months ago. the unemployment rate, they think we've got work to do. if the fed thinks we've got work to do, i think you know what we've got. tom: our esteemed guest leads with the idea that the fed is locked in. atlanta fed, i think it is 9.5% gdp. forget about this. the fed is locked in. jonathan: evan brown joining us now, ubs asset management ahead of multi-asset strategy. the fed is sticking with it. do you stick with it, too? stick with what is working? evan: we do right now.
i really don't think you can question the fed's dovishness at this point. powell has made his legacy on this inflation overshoot. yes, we are going to get this base effect driven inflation pop in the spring, but that will be the moment for chair powell to say this is transitory, we are looking through it. the market may try to test a little bit. you may see some volatility on that front. but this fed is different, and we shouldn't try to fight the fed in this environment. tom: the research notes that we see here at "surveillance" are uncommonly strong this morning. the basic trend is higher gdp. does ubs look at that as a single point higher, or is it a rapid trend back to normality? evan: i think first of all, it is nominal gdp. when we are thinking about
earnings, we are thinking about the growth and underlying inflation pressure in the economy, and what we do see is with this fiscal stimulus coming through and the reopening, we could be getting on a path that is actually greater as the trend of growth is greater than what we've had pre-pandemic, which is ready quite something. normally in a recession, you end up on a path that is lower. with all of this fiscal stimulus, with a dovish central bank, for us to end at a higher trend growth is where we want to be if that is really possible. lisa: you say don't fight the fed, and yet there seems to be a lack of clarity on how much the federal reserve will allow the long end of the yield curve, longer-term rates to rise. that is a key tension we see playing out in markets. do you have a clear view of how that leads through to financial conditions? evan: i don't think the fed has a level of, say, 10 year yields
or 10 year real yields where they say this is where we are comfortable, this is where we are not. i think any central bank really once to see steepening avail your to curves over time. we are eventually going to get inflation expectations higher. we are eventually going to be able to hike again. i think the fed wants to see the curve steepen and is encouraged by what they are seeing. but it really comes down to the speed of the move. if you see real yields get a really nice run over the last week or so, if you see real yields start to spike another 20, 25 basis points and leak into credit, and lead to a strong rise in the dollar, that would be the stage where i would expect the fed to push back. but that is reactive instead of proactive. jonathan: when treasury yields start to affect broader risk
assets, once the speed -- one is the speed of the move, and the other is real yields and inflation expectations. could you argue it is already starting to hit the nasdaq, already starting to hit growth stocks? evan: i think there are elements of that. it is hard to say it is really hitting. we had a little wobble in growth stocks. we are use to them going straight up, and now they are not. so there's a little bit of consolidation there, and i don't think the move from -105 basis points -93 basis points is enough to really change the story. there's so many assets. the nasdaq is a great example -- there's so many assets, the nasdaq is a great example, that are priced on really low fed funds rates forever. when you do get a hint of the market test, or there's a hint that long-term rates are not going to be zero forever, those are going to be the most vulnerable assets, and that fits in with, i guess it is
consensus, but it is the right play, that value versus growth kind of play in this environment . jonathan: a dollar call seems to -- your dollar call seems to underpin what is going on right now. got a much more nuanced view on the u.s. dollar. walk us through it. evan: part of it is that when you have a bulky asset portfolio and it is all playing this reflation trade, using about what can go wrong. we look across all the assets and say the one asset class that seems most vulnerable to this reflation idea is the bearish dollar view because we do think we are in an environment of u.s. exceptionalism with the normandy of stimulus -- with the enormity of stimulus, relatively quick vaccine rollout. u.s. growth differentials are going to move in favor of the u.s.. yields differentials are going to move in favor of the u.s.
that is going to lead to a stronger dollar. i think it gets more concentrated against the lower yielding currencies. it is hard to be too bearish on emerging markets when you see copper just surging every day. but that dollar view against some of those low yielding, that is a consensus view that dollar goes down, and i would certainly challenge that. jonathan: evan, great to catch up. come back soon. evan brown there of ubs asset management. we come looking for that dollar asset week this story. to evan's point, that is hard to lean against too hard right now. the low yield is the swissie, the euro. people are starting to gather around the last couple of months. that is one to watch. tom:tom: this is the trade everyone is talking about.
they made very clear that they do have a weak dollar call, but they said it is not going to be a smooth trajectory. there's lots of ways you can push back against the certitude of weak dollar. jonathan: and it underpins a lot of other trades, this consensus call around the u.s. dollar. lisa: we've seen a lot of consensus trades turned on their head this year, and it is interesting to see some of the fragility's we have seen around the market. one big call i am struggling with is this idea of faster growth post pandemic than the trajectory we were on before. what happens to all of the debt that we have incurred? does that just go away? what about all of the productivity gaps we can't make up? jonathan: hopefully we grow out of the burden. i think that is what people are looking for. looking at the numbers out of ellen's and are at morgan stanley, 5% next year is punchy -- ellen zentner and morgan
stanley, 5% next year is punchy. tom: finally, we've got some lisa abramowicz gloom to get in there. [laughter] lisa has been crushing it. lisa: thank you. jonathan: coming up, leon cooperman, omega advisors founder and ceo. how much longer are you in that room? can we keep you there a little bit longer? futures down 15. this is bloomberg. ritika: with the first -- karina: with the first word news, i'm karina mitchell. texas is taking an extraordinary step to ensure in-state power generators have enough. some are calling it a violation of the u.s. constitution commerce clause. the crisis is now in its fourth day. several million texans are still without electricity. president biden is about to launch what may be one of his toughest legislative challenges. his immigration reform bill will be unveiled in congress today.
it includes a path to citizenship for 11 million immigrants living illegally in the u.s. there are also calls for more technology to secure the border with mexico. the president had his first call with israel's benjamin netanyahu. the president called it a good conversation. the delay had led to speculation that biden was freezing out the prime minister. netanyahu had a close religions with donald trump -- close relationship with donald trump. keith gill will testify today before a house committee. he plans to say he isn't a financial advisor and wasn't art of any pump and dump scheme. he's better known as whirring kitty -- as roaring kitty, the name he uses on youtube. about 2.6 million people in the u.k. expect to lose their jobs in the next three months, roughly 8% of the workforce, according to a new survey that includes people who have already
been told they will be let go. young people and lowest earners are at the greatest risk. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm karina mitchell. this is bloomberg. ♪ (announcer) do you want to reduce stress? shed pounds? do you want to flatten your stomach? do all that in just 10 minutes a day with aerotrainer, the total body fitness solution that uses its revolutionary ergonomic design to help you maintain comfortable, correct form.
we need to build infrastructure in this country. we are so far behind the curve. we rank 38th in the world in terms of our infrastructure, everything from canals to highways to airports, to everything we need to do to get ourselves competitive in the 21st century. jonathan: from new york city this morning, good morning to you all. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. here's the price action this thursday as we count you down to initial jobless claims one hour and about 12 minutes away. equity futures come down 16, -0.4%. nasdaq futures is where the pain is. in foreign, euro stronger, dollar weaker against everything in g10. sterling on top. cable advancing 0.6%. tom, let's finish on crude. 40% of oil output in the united states america is down. double agi at a 60 would wti at a $61 -- wti at a $61 handle.
tom: citigroup reports on come pari. that was my first read of the morning. u.s. shale is up 13% q4. italy sales, -33%. that really is a real world divide their. jonathan: where we have been, the restrictions and europe have been a holland or tighter -- have been a whole lot tighter. the vaccine rollout in the united states is a lot more encouraging. it is where we are going as well. the hope is the u.s. recovers quickly. the fear is that europe doesn't play ball. tom: in your negroni, do you use orange bidders or a slice of orange -- orange bitters or a slice of orange? jonathan: i use orange bitters. tom: ok, good. jonathan: in the morning? tom: yeah, the bitters are
great. jonathan: we are not on the same page about that. [laughter] i'm not thinking now -- i'm not drinking now, tom. tom: kevin cirilli, our chief washington correspondent, joins us on the streets of washington. i want to talk about the delightful maxine waters. she and i had a conversation a couple of years ago about how she became a politician out of the riots in los angeles decades ago. she's 82 years old. what is maxine waters going to do today? kevin: maxine waters, and many ways, is the original alexandria ocasio-cortez, and as you mentioned, has had a prolific career in the house financial services committee especially. so to your point, she is fiery, she is not afraid to get into a back-and-forth with whomever is
sitting in the confirmation chair were in the hearing chair. yesterday on "bloomberg sound on," i spoke to mick mulvaney, who has been grilled by chairwoman maxine waters. if you think senator elizabeth warren goes after whoever is in the financial industry taking questions, chairwoman waters takes it one step further. in talking with staffers on the committee over the past couple of days, this is going to be a fiery hearing. tom: ok. what will you watch for? help our audience. we are distracted i sales, -- distracted by sales, distracted by the real yield. what do we need to watch out for? kevin: first and foremost, does gamestop understand they are now going to have to meet washington in a way that, quite frankly, big ceo's were very slow to arrive at the conclusion that they were going to have to deal with regulators and politicians?
but secondly, who are the lawmakers that are going to not necessarily take the side of gamestop, but to actually discuss openly how we got here, why there is an attraction in the consumer market for there to be access to products like robin hood, and is there a way where these types of products and services might be able to serve underserved communities? you look at financial institutions, for example, and typically more urban parts of constituencies really struggle with that. i have my eye on congressman french hill. he will be on newburgh later today. he is someone in the crypto space that was able to talk about the appeal for cryptocurrency in rural america. let's see if he is going to take the same approach as robin hood. lisa: i love that we are going to somehow shoehorn gamestop
into discussions about how to get more aid into local communities. governor andrew cuomo of new york potentially going to receive some sort of restriction of his powers by other new york legislators due to his response to the pandemic. can you talk about how much noise you're hearing about that on capitol hill? kevin: not on capitol hill, but it is the talk of the town in the after work discussions. i talked about california. now let's go to your neck of the woods in new york. governor cuomo is facing intense scrutiny. this is someone who flaunted his leadership style in a book, who flaunted his leadership style in the aftermath of what had gone on. now you have democrats in the new york state legislature raising serious questions about whether or not there is a cover-up on nursing homes. got to remember that every single person listening and watching right now has been
touched by covid-19, and especially senior citizens. when people are not able to say goodbye to grandmothers, two grandfathers, and then you've got this situation burrowing in new york, he's got a lot of questions, and quite frankly he is going to be facing pressure. i would expect -- facing pressure, i would expect soon, from the new york delegation to congress. governor cuomo was at the white house and kept a very low profile the other week, and there were a lot of cameras there when president biden met with some governors and mayors. that is very unlike him, given the book that he wrote on his leadership style. so president biden and the cuomos, and many democrats, he does have good relationships with these folks, but he is in the hot seat. jonathan: kevin, great to catch up.
kevin cirilli, chief washington correspondent and host of "sound on" on bloomberg radio weekdays. where do they get the time to write books? lisa, i've got a real issue with that. tom: there's an industry. i assume it is the same in london. there's an industry for this. jonathan: i think there's more of a celebrity culture around being a politician in america compared to everything else. lisa: one thing we have learned over the past four years is the drama will perhaps get people more involved, and you can say that. jonathan: then give the proceeds away. lisa: ok, i will. when i become a politician and write a book. jonathan: i think if you are a serving politician and you've got the time to ready book, and you're going to get paid for that, then you should be giving that money away. or you should wait until you leave.
looking at 14 billion this year. they are going to be stuck with two related costs and will add another some on that. average wages going up to $15 an hour from $14. it's a huge margin story going forward area we will see it paid off in the long run. this is the company that's basically connecting the use fee off of this. this has been phenomenal and has been able to keep the cost under control. we have to talk about what's happening. and with all the grandstanding members that congress is going to do, were probably not seeing anything in the short-term but there is a longer-term debate about workflow. and how interactive brokers make their money and how the robin hood's of the world which have become so popular, whether they are being upfront enough with
their users about how they are making money off of those users. this is going to be a whole other -- francine: what it -- tom: what are you looking for? what are you looking for? romain: mainly for the brokerage. this is going to be a fun story but really pay attention to what we hear at a virtually financial. these are the companies that are really at the heart of the issue and they are the ones that are determining whether these regulations will go forward. and is not just interactive brokers, and congress, keep in mind that the nyse do not like these changes. they are going to have a little say in this as well. and the mars landing also tonight on the big show. tom: the mars landing is cool. for are informed radio and tv audience, who is rory katie? >> he went on youtube and made a
huge sale on gamestop a of years ago, he gained a lot of followers on youtube and now he has become the fall guy. >> and is being sued for security fraud. tom: for those of you on radio, you are lucky you are on radio. >> he has become the fall guy. and he should really prepare testimony because he has to talk about from his perspective why he's not to blame. tom: romain has a good update. wells fargo has a macro strategy and michael schumacher is joining us now. you have an interesting report and you talk about an interest rate on excess reserves. i will not through the ugliness right now, but the fed may raise that relatively obscure statistic. how close is the path from
raising a parade that nobody cares about to the discussion in speeches? >> i think that's actually pretty short distance for the fed to travel. the reason people might care about this -- in any case, the problem is that yields are very close to going below zero. the fed does not want this, the treasury does not want this. they could try to raise this obscure rate which would give banks more of an incentive to put money out and therefore less interest in buying treasuries on the open market. >> does not resonate with you? michael: it certainly does. we did a call six months ago, and the takeaway was everyone has cash, corporations, governments, consumers, and that's still the case. >> how long can the conditions persist? michael: for a while, think
about the government stimulus. the u.s. leads the case but a lot of caches going into the market with those conditions persisting for six months, 12 months, quite a while. >> there's a question about how high inflation can get even the dynamic in the amount of cash not circulating in the market and the fact that there's so much debt that we need to pay back, are we underestimating inflation or overestimating it right now? michael: probably underestimating it. the fed's projections are pretty tame. it seems pretty low, and we think that wells fargo has inflation spiking a lot sooner than that. we see numbers up 5.4% and a couple weeks ago, i think this is probably happening across the investment landscape. if you look at the bonds, these have traded up like nobody's business. we think the risk is underpriced. lisa: we have seen a lot of increases in the price of lumber
and oil and all of those commodities, but what about when services come back online? there's no speculation that restaurants will be able in arrays to hire people and there's a labor shortage that will cause higher wages. do you see that coming through or do you see it as less than people expect? michael: it's a double-edged sword. when you consider the massive layoffs that have happened, it has really been low-wage people affected primarily. it's a terrible human troll -- human toll. but it's probably the same way when those institutions got to hire people. tom:tom: what is your microstray right now -- your macro strategy right now? what do we do right now to reset for the rest of 2021? mike: bottom line, it is still a
risk on environment. want to avoid taking very long duration positions. avoid treasuries for five years or longer, and void -- or longer, avoid comparable measures. stay away from that stuff. tom: equity markets? mike: equity markets probably do somewhat ok, partly on inflation, partly on stimulus. jonathan: mike, good to see you, sir. some headlines coming from the ecb. this is the account of the last meeting. do we think that boost is sustainable? "models may overestimate impact of fx moves on inflation." is that a very subtle green light that f strengthx -- that
fx strengths may not mean that much? tom: the idea of how do you weigh these different dynamics, but what i would suggest respectfully is that the media often mis-weights what is important. the idea that inflation expectations is not important, the lack of growth is important. tom: even though -- lisa: even though it is unclear exactly what they can do to mitigate some of these currency moves, the fact that they are not even going to try is interesting. you're seeing the euro near the highs against the dollar for the session. euro-yuan has arguably been a bigger move this year, and is a concern when you talk about imports. jonathan: here's the
from the ecb -- here's the next line from the ecb, still concerned about impacts on financial conditions. tom: stocks could become vulnerable to rising real yields . i'm shocked. jonathan: thank you for that one. [laughter] on the rise in yields, we are up three basis points on 30's. tens up a little more than two basis points. getting very close to that 1.30% mark again. tom: my people wrote your people moments ago. what do we do at 1.35%? how do we rationalize? jonathan: if we got there today, i imagine we would have a little bit of disruption. i did receive the email. but i imagine we would get disruption. it depends on what takes us there. is it inflation expect patients? is it real yields? if it is the latter, you've got real concern in this market. coming up on this program, we
are counting you down to a hearing on capitol hill down in washington, d.c. it's all about gamestop. we will be catching up with leon cooperman, the omega founder and chairman. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. heard on bloomberg tv, this is -- heard on bloomberg radio, seen on bloomberg tv, this is "bloomberg surveillance." ritika: the crisis -- karina: the crisis that knocked out power in texas will continue. texas has taken the extraordinary step of restricting natural gas sales across state lines. some call that a violation of the u.s. constitution's commerce clause. the biden adminstration is speaking to taiwan to help resolve a global semiconductor shortage. it has led to electric car making plants laying off
workers. the coronavirus has had a huge impact on u.s. life expectancy. it fell by the most last year since world war ii. it dropped a full year to 77.8. black men saw a three year decline. meanwhile, women now outlive men by more than five years. that is the biggest gap in two decades. the latest funding round by spacex values elon musk's company at about $74 billion. investors putting $850 million, led by sequoia capital. sequoia has now invested more than $600 million into the company. credit suisse posted a lower-than-expected fourth-quarter loss. equity underwriting fees more than tripled and loan loss provisions were less than forecast. the bank did point to a strong start to 2021 after trading revenue fell short investments less quarter. -- short of
investments last quarter. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm karina mitchell. this is bloomberg. ♪ oomberg. ♪ ♪ >> we are not out of this pandemic yet, and therefore we have to expect more volatility in the markets generally, even as they have come down somewhat. until we have more clarity around the economic recovery some of road will still be somewhat bumpy. jonathan: the credit suisse ceo. from new york city this morning, good morning to you while. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. counting you down to the opening bell and initial jobless claims. here's the price action. equities pull back a little bit get a mild move lower on the s&p
, down 0.3 percent. the underperformance this morning once again from the nasdaq. big tech not performing well as yields start to drift up higher. on tens, we approach that 1.30% line in the sand. foreign-exchange, dollar weaker through all of g10. we are up about 0.1% in the euro's favor. tom: some real focus on what we are going to observe this afternoon in washington. i am going to go to the real yield of negative 0.93%. right now, leon cooperman joins us. he's with omega, the chairman, the ceo. what he really is is a kid out of hunter college who got a job at xerox a million years ago and stumbled to goldman sachs, where he found a claim, fame and fortune. he was a regular at
institutional investors award ceremonies for years and years. mr. cooperman joins us this morning. why is this short squeeze different from the 42 others you have known since you joined goldman sachs? leon: the market is very different in that things are happening much more. there's just no stabilizers. 55 years ago, the brokers traded stocks for zero dollars 20 have since -- for $0. 25 to $0.50 a share. there was no volcker rule. for some unexplained reason, -- tom: i don't want to interrupt, but that is where i want to go. arthur levitt and others took us from quarter-point responsibility down to the rush of the decimalization, and then
we had the uptick rule changed. explain why the uptick rule was so important. leon: it added stability to the market. i think the element nation of the uptick rule gave rise to the high-frequency deflator -- high-frequency deflators. they exacerbate the market trends. if the market is going up, they accelerate the up move. i think the sec, they have been very mindful of the cost of trading. they have not looked at what impact it has had on the market. i think we should try to slow things down a little bit. tom: charles cantor of neuberger berman was on the other day, and made clear his break is a responsible short interest. his one pass here to restrict the size -- is one path here to
restrict the size of the interest on that high-speed market? leon: know, i would say we should just follow the rules that exist area if you are going to -- that exist. if you can't borrow, you shouldn't be short. it's because the rules of not followed. jonathan: is there anything to admire from the events of several weeks ago? leon: anything to admire? well, the system has survived. but no. wall street ethics has been in decline for some time. many years ago, i confronted the then head of the new york stock exchange and asked why they asked these -- why they allowed these algorithm guys to get a split second advantage over the public. the response was, if we don't do it, somebody else will.
it raises questions as to whether the public has been abused. but i think there's a lot of things the sec could be doing. the lesson thing we need is elizabeth warren or bernie sanders or aoc getting involved in setting policy. the rules and regulations are in place. just follow them. jonathan: as you know, a lot of people have characterized this as the wealthy versus the poor, david versus goliath. how unhelpful using that is right now? leon: i think that is all baloney. this persistent attack of the wealthy, i mean, i suspect he's a very wealthy guy, the guy that runs melvin capital. so i don't think is a battle against the wealthy on the poor. i think america is a country that became great because good people want to aspire to become wealthy, not because they had a negative view of the wealthy. how to become wealthy in america
, we should develop a proctor service where you get richly rewarded, and the people who have their head screwed on correctly share that success with others less fortunate. is the world at her off or worse off because of bill gates, jeff bezos, and a host of other people? i've said on your program and other programs, one of the finest human beings i've ever met, i think he raised something like $2 million -- like $10 million. they have several thousand employees and the heirs. that is the american dream. lisa: how does the fed factor into the american dream? because the american dream increasingly has been people with assets continuing to see their wealth grow dramatically, versus those that don't have assets which have been left out.
leon: i am not a big bull in the market presently. i understand exactly what is going on basically, but we have had the government performing some type of life support for the economy and the markets since 2008. mr. bernanke figured out he had to reverse that, and the best way to revert that is to create wealth. the best way to get wealth is to get the stock market up. not that i think he did the wrong thing. they did the right thing. then they spent the next 10 years taking away the wealth that was created by creating an environment where there was no retirement savings. so there was a better improvement in life into thousand eight, and yet tax adjusted inflation return savings -- life in 2008, and yet
tax adjusted inflation return savings. it is very clear what is going on in the country right now. unemployment pre-covid was like 5.7 million people unemployed. that ballooned to over 23 million. that is now down to over 10 million. they are conducting monetary and fiscal policy. not saying it is wrong, but there is a price to be paid for this long term. they are conducting policy with the idea of getting employment back to where it was pre-covid. so just look at the world. we have injected $1 trillion more in stimulus as income has been lost. we took 200 49 years -- we have built the deficit in this country for 240 years. lisa: what is the consequence? is it runaway inflation? leon: i don't know the answer
between inflation and reflation. i just know it is not going to be good. i don't know when it ends, but it is not going to be a good end to the game. just think of it this way. if you speak to 100 economists a day and ask, what is the trend of real growth in the economy, they will say 1.5%. at inflation, that is 4% nominal gdp growth. this year the economy is expected to grow 6%. in real terms. it is growing at three times trend, yet we have a zero interest rate. it doesn't make any sense. i resent mr. powell in one respect. let him call it what it is. tom: i want to get back to what we are talking about here. michael lewis wrote a book about the flash boys.
we've got to do something to get us away from the cult of high-speed trading. what is your policy prescription for mr. gensler to get us somewhere back to where value is worshiped like price? [indiscernible] leon: recommending reinstating uptick rules. i see no downside risk to doing that, and it would basically add some stability to the system. this no stabilizers up or down, and that is not a good thing. jonathan: who is lobbying for those -- tom: who is lobbying for those people. who is representing them against the high-speed industry, including mr. griffin? leon: i honestly don't know. i am really an old-fashioned investor. i buy stocks one at a time. i am value guy. tom: what is your single best buy right now? ferro has got to mix a money.
ice -- got to make some money. leon: my single best idea right now is a company called legato that owns 5g spectrum, which got caught up in some controversy. they very bogusly objected to their spectrum use. they studied this for over five years, and by a pilot -- by a bipartisan vote, approved. jonathan: leon, thank you. we've got to leave it there. leon cooperman, a make a family office chairman and ceo. equity futures, we are down 13 points and off by 0.3%. tom: there's a little bit of an equity move here. i can't believe i am saying that, 1.23% in 10 year. i am watching sterling.
♪ >> the bull market that will probably last for a long time has begun. >> we start with price stability in 2021 but we have a long way to go. >> we are about to throw a gigantic amount of stimulus on a market that is about to reopen anyway. >> when houses have resources to spend they will. >> the bigger the stimulus gets the less money there is for anything else. >> every trade is being driven by negative real yields. >> at the core of the high yield protecting faster growth. >> we should not try to fight the fed in this environment. >>