tv Bloomberg Markets Asia Bloomberg February 28, 2021 9:00pm-11:00pm EST
sovereign jumping the most in a year. haslinda: and u.n. and the european union demand restraint in myanmar after 18 people are reported killed in the deadliest day of protests so far. rishaad: let's go to market action. here we go. first day of the month, first trading day of the week, and certainly the moment we are buoyed up right now to the relief. the bond rout came to an end. we just saw bond yields come back as the markets rebounded. nikkei 225 up. looking at the hang seng closely, about 1.3% up. we'll be finding out if this 51-year-old benchmark is actually going to have a huge change. it is going to be undertaking one of the biggest overhauls.
tens of billions of dollars in funds which track the stock benchmark. 1.1% up. various bits of pmi numbers showing the economic recovery in china slowed in february, largely due to the lunar new year holiday. the bloomberg dollar index easing slightly as well. amid some opening trade. traders waiting for u.s. treasury futures. they have opened and we see bond yields on the 10 year at 1.41%. commodities up 2.1%. haslinda: the recovery in china slowed last month as factories and businesses closed during the lunar new year holiday and virus restrictions curved the usually frenetic traveled's reason -- travel season. fell to a 19 month low in january as export orders
plunged. china's pmi missed estimates. joining us now with more is juliana lee. good morning. it does seem like it is seasonal weakness. there's no concern because it is still above 50. juliana: hi, good morning, thank you for having me. yes, indeed. if you look at other data that provides information with domestic demand, we're seeing more spread out of spending rather than concentrated spending. as you mentioned early on, the restrictions on travel, that had some impact. as we're seeing some pick up back into spending. when we see the survey for china, we see an increase in
funding of households in china. haslinda: how much clarity is there for the outlook? front and center right now is the chip shortage. china is bearing the brunt of it. it relies on 90% of imports of those chips. could that be a risk to china's growth going forward? juliana: certainly i do not think it is isolated to china. i think you covered this quite a bit. we have seen pretty strong recovery in the industry ahead of expectations. that led to this mismatch between supply and demand. in 2010, you see similarities. but at the end of the day, we
see supply catching up in the second half of the year. strong production and supply to match demand. but we are definitely seeing some disruptions at the moment. that creates uncertainty. but that should push towards wendy supply can be met by semi conductors -- towards when supply can be met by semiconductors. haslinda: the supply chain vulnerabilities that you say are affecting the rest of the world, how could this play out? what could be the worst case scenario? because there is no quick fix here. juliana: if you look at the semiconductors, clearly the suppliers will respond to that. at the end of the day -- [indiscernible] in terms of the vaccination and
in terms of curbing infections, it will be determinant of the path to recovery. but as soon as we do get the path, the way we're thinking and how governments have planned out, we see relatively strong growth in asia and globally as well. we still have demand for fiscal support not just in asia, but also in the rest of the world. especially with the u.s. now looking at a $1.9 trillion fiscal stimulus. that should provide strong support for asian exports. so we are going to see a very, very strong rebound in growth in the second quarter. but at the same time with sustained growth in exports, and also recovery in asia as the
curbing of infections gets more underway. rishaad: how do regional central banks look at what has been happening market wise? i know you are an economist, but what happened with this bond rout last week, doesn't it move the dial for them in any way in terms of what participants are looking at and what they are looking at? juliana: i think you make a very important point. there's clearly the market has gone away ahead of the fundamentals, and what the central bankers are comfortable with. if you look at some of the commentary from even last week, they were clear in terms of a will to come into the market and volatility when necessary. fallen short of direct
purchases. but central banks around the world, not just in asia, will maintain common policy. in fact, inflation in the second quarter should provide rates going forward as well. rising inflation turns to negative. at the same time you have central banks looking to come into the market, whether verbally or with action in terms of curbing rates as well. rishaad: of course you can use one broad brush stroke to look over the entire region. which other countries are dealing better with what has been happening over the last year or thereabouts, and which are the ones who have not done very well, and where does that leave their economies? juliana: i think in terms of the
market and china, vietnam and taiwan, you are really seeing a surge in demand for semi conductors. in terms of -- [indiscernible] you have to divide between north and south. at the end of the day, slowly closing the gap. as they have started to open up, we should see an improvement in economic activities. [indiscernible] rishaad: thank you very much for that. juliana lee there. just going to get you to outside the high court in the magistrate.
we've got hong kong police charging dozens of opposition activists with violating the city's national security law. it's being seen as the most sweeping use of this legislation yet. former lawmakers appearing in court. you can see the scenes here. the u.s. secretary sandi condemned the detention and charges filed against pan-democrat candidates in hong kong selections and calling for their immediate release. going on to say that political participation and freedom of expression should not be crimes. this is all coming from antony blinken as well. this, as beijing plans to further tighten their grip over the former british colony. antony blinken saying the u.s. stands with the people of hong kong. there we go. let's have a look at what might be happening in 2024 as we get over to new york and join vonnie
quinn for the latest first word news. vonnie: former president trump has been teasing the idea of a white house run in 2024, but is rooting out starting a new party. he told the third party was just fake news and it would simply mean dividing right-leaning voters. trump repeated that he won last november's election and hinted at another run. >> i am not starting a new party. that was fake news. fake news. no. wouldn't that be brilliant? let's start a new party. let's divide our vote so that you can never win. vonnie: top russian critic alexei navalny has been moved from moscow to a penal camp that is said to be feared by even its own inmates. he was detained last month, accused of violating parole in 2014, and is now reported to be
in a prison about 100 kilometers east of the russian capital. former inmates say prisoners are subject to constant intimidation and isolation. chinese super league champion is being -- owners say they want to focus on their core retail business. they won the club's first league title last november. the star was said to be close to signing to real madrid in 2019. they also own italian league leader, but says they will be no impact on that club. policymakers in australia are signaling they will not shirk from their defense of qe programs ahead of today's rba me eting. the governor is likely to focus on reflation the reflation trade that is proving a major challenge. the recovering australian economy has pushed the dollar towards $0.80 u.s.
global news 24 hours a day on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am vonnie quinn. this is bloomberg. rishaad: good stuff. still ahead, coffers seemingly unstoppable rally slows, but this week we are discussing metal mania with tom james. haslinda: the hunt for yield and the road and the bond market. what can bring it to an end? we ask our markets live team about the question of the day, and what they are watching. this is bloomberg. ♪ s is bloomberg. ♪
terms of driving rates higher. >> markets now expecting a much stronger recovery. >> we are selling off because of optimism for growth. >> not the same thing is inflation. >> it is a distinction that is illustrated by that rise in real yields. >> for a lot of traditional investors, this is a painful process. >> people are left with a lot of long-duration explosion -- exposure. >> finally taken the pain and repricing. >> that is the second wall of worry. >> the problem with relying for too long on monetary policy. >> it is going to be very delicate. >> the exit becomes difficult. rishaad: just some of our guests on a wild week for the bond markets. traders are still on yield wash. let's get to mark cudmore in singapore. what a week it was. i suppose we have to see the dust settle and the sing rebound. is that the end of the story? the question of the day is what would it take to end the bond
rally. let's have a look at what is going on there. mark, can you hear me? if you can, what would it take to end the bond, and tell us a little bit about how the week that was ended, and out the dust settled? mark: absolutely. sorry about that. the whole theme of the last year since march has been this idea of cheap liquidity. the idea that suddenly liquidate my get more expensive is the really big threat behind this whole market. last week we saw some strange moves and some of the more painful ones like 10 year yield suddenly surging to 1.6% and s ome movement in the five year
and seven year in the u.s. are very technical driven. i think that would convex the issue which has happened in the u.s. because the way the mortgage market is constructed there. there were some internal technical issues which should show some reassurance that said come i do not think this overall story is behind it. i think will keep cropping up next couple months. while last week there were technical issues, the move over the last couple of months is more about the fact we have this reopening trade and this fear of higher inflation driving people to hedge inflation fears by buying more commodities which drives higher inflation expectations. that dynamic does not appear to have ended yet. i know commodities traded lower on friday but again they are looking again this morning and the theme of higher commodity prices will continue to scare the market. is the threat over? no./
have we short-term seen the peak? probably. haslinda: so how much worse can it get? you say we have not seen the peak. how much worse could it get? in the end the focus is on the federal bank reacting. the rba has intervened. mark: i think that the rba made a good move again this spring by following up the action on friday by buying a lot of bonds and saying we are committed to yield curve control. i think the rba are at the forefront of this and doing a great job of sending that message. i said the parallel is -- ben bernanke kept saying we kept launching qe2 in 2010 and kept saying we are going to keep on buying more bonds if needed. i am more worried about the labor market and we are going to keep on supporting the bond market.
that did not stop the idea of yields scaring because of what was happening in commodities. it turned out it was a steepening of the curve, kind of like what we have seen recently in the u.s. yield market. the central banks as we are not going to raise rates. it is a tantrum, but not a taper tantrum. no one thinks central banks will taper policy. but it is a worry that we might have longer-term inflation. last week we had the extra thing that that steepening actually moved into the belly so we got a flattening of the long end of the curve. a little technical, but i think this overall theme will continue. even though the rba is good it will not change the overall theme we are worried about the next couple months. rishaad: there. if you want to follow the action, just go to the bloomberg. a few headlines.
the industry minister speaking in a moment at a briefing, saying they'll be pushing for growth in 5g, green energy, and chips in particular because of them falling behind in terms of semi conductor manufacturing. and we have a big push to get more of these chips as well. going on to say they will be trying to improve the strength of the industrial supply chain and technology self-reliance is a key task for china. that is the minr speaking at a briefing. haslinda: still to come, to buy or to say goodbye. that is a question about asian stocks. we will get some analysis, next. this is bloomberg. ♪ is bloomberg. ♪
rishaad: let's have a closer look at what is happening across the markets. david ingles has more. nice bounce for equities today. also getting a nice bounce for some bond markets too. david: you have the rba coming in and brings to mind what the fed will do with the speakers which i will get to in a moment. absolutely. the biggest drop since the market capitulation in march really opened up several buying opportunities. you look at the index, first time it actually fell to the 50 day moving average. within the index you have four of the five. the 5th being tmc. four of the five biggest stocks in asia fell at -- to or below the 50 day moving average.
that is happening against the backdrop of halfway through the earnings season. so far it has been rather good. 55% of companies where we have data available on the estimates have beaten expectations ahead of what will likely be a very big month ahead for earnings, particularly when you look at chinese names. haslinda: the hang seng index set for its biggest overhaul and 51 years. what can we expect when that announcement comes this afternoon? david: i guess two things. we already had an announcement on the weekend not to be confused with the bigger one coming out today. you are seeing that play out across markets. alibaba health, -- you are seeing that play out across equities. the bigger one comes out today.
we still did not know the details when it comes to what could be the biggest overhaul as you mentioned. it could be an index with a lot more stocks in it. i think we are at 55 right now with a three addition. you could have changes in terms of the minimum and changes within the index. just something to watch. should be due out after the market closes today, if i'm not mistaken. haslinda: as far as the market is concerned, i guess the focus is on what central banks will do and fed speakers will be speaking today on the back of that volatility in the bond market. what could the comments mean for the bond market? david: i know you guys talked about this already with mark a couple minutes back, the move that we had last friday, last thursday on the short end of the treasury curve, following already some words out of jay powell that they are not moving on rates, and you see the short
and moving up. one, will they need to step in and say more? the risk is if they come out and then say something more than yields, does that then undermine the very recovery the market is pricing in? something to watch in the calendar of all these things coming up later this week. back to you guys. rishaad: right. as we get towards the japan lunch break, nikkei 225 at the moment the leading benchmark to the upside. seeing some data coming through. pmi data which was better than expected there in japan. looking at movers as well, there are certainly quite a few, including chief secretary of the japanese government speaking in tokyo. they want to identify the cause of their outage which left atm's and online banking services out
vonnie: it is 10:20 nine in shanghai and hong kong. i am vonnie quinn with the first word headlines. dozens of the hong kong activists -- 47 demonstrators face charges of subversion, with hearings coming days before the opening of the mainland's highest profile annual meeting. u.s. secretary of state antony blinken says washington's condemns the detention and charges. myanmar has suffered its deadliest a of protests so far with security forces accused of
killing at least 18 people. police and soldiers fired live ammunition into clouds in at least six cities with at least dozens more wounded. it shows a blatant disregard for international law in the army is being called on to be held to account. southeast asia leading ride-hailer is setting up drive-thru vaccination services in indonesia. the grab program launched as indonesia makes it mandatory for citizens to receive a shot. indonesia has suffered the largest coronavirus outbreak in southeast asia and plans to vaccinate at least 70 million people by august. five republican senators in the u.s. have warned president biden to keep away from a new nuclear deal with iran, joining some democrats in voicing concerns. they have written to the president saying the 2015 accord is riddled with problems. the unrealistic timelines on curbing tehran's nuclear activity and so on.
biden has indicated he would return to talks with iran we have seen little tangible response. warren buffett is being accused of a tone deaf response in his latest annual letter to shareholders. it barely mentions the pandemic that devastated the u.s. economy, and steers clear of politics since the storming of the u.s. capitol last month. buffett had been silent since last year's annual meeting, declining to comment on the tumultuous year. global news 24 hours a day on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am vonnie quinn. this is bloomberg. haslinda: calm after the storm. asian markets following the money. all indexes are in positive territory. investors mulling china's economic recovery. manufacturing pmi dropping to a nine-month low amid holiday disruptions. the hang seng index is set to announce a revamp of rules today in what is seen as the biggest
overhaul and 51 years. the hang seng up by about 1%. taking a look at the dollar, it is easing. traders are waiting cueues from the bond market after friday's volatility. we have oil at $62.55, resuming the march high as traders look at the opec plus meeting. copper features trading up by 1.7% coming off a nine-year high, above $9000. copper features at 459. rishaad: let's get more analysis on the commodity markets. let's get to tom james. tom, it's really a situation where you see these gains and the question is if we are in a super cycle. everybody is asking that. it seems only people know they are in a super cycle want it over with. tom: yes. i mean, it does.
if we look at the numbers, a lot of commodities are nowhere near their highs back in 2011. brent crude in 2018 was at $68. silver has been higher. it had a high of $50 in 2011. palladium as well. copper has come up palladium had a high of $90 in 2011. we're only $12.12 in the u.s. market. copper was exaggerated maybe because of energy transition. electric vehicles, etc., reducing carbon emissions. but all of that needs copper cabling. so that was perhaps exaggerated more than the others. rishaad: tom, of course investors in markets look six months, nine months ahead.
they must be building in a very robust picture for the global economy given what is going on. tom: yeah. we are definitely seeing a real restocking, first in chin europea,, u.s., some companies are looking at a v-shaped recovery for commodities, at least for the vaccine rollout. we have seen significant progress in that, and i think that has boosted investor confidence. just last week we continue to see investors, fund management companies, increasing their long positions, their buying positionsmult commodities. sugar, coffee, cotton, which may not be seen as big industrial commodities. but it means a stock is moving again. my fund, we enable sme-sized firms in their international
commodity trade, and since q4 last year we have seen a tripling of demand for trade finance. soak things are clearly starting to move again. rishaad: tom, as things move, and we move towards a greener future you alluded to with copper, and copper going up because of wiring demand, etc. how do you play that also with carbon credits? tell us the story there, and what really drives this particular part of the market. tom: absolutely, yes. end of last year we kicked off our climate change initiative, neutralizing the emissions for the shipping of commodities. we saw a massive increase in commodity movement again which we are for -- we are starting to finance. and we are seeing the european union co2 credits there trade an
average of 24 euros last year per ton. for ages, that was actually trading down around $8 a ton. and now, we're starting to see expectations that carbon credits will push up to, say, $67 per ton by 2030, which is only nine years away. co2 credits both as investment look interesting, as everyone is pushing for climate change initiatives, but it is also a good gauge of real industrial output. companies have to meet certain carbon emissions criteria. if industrial output is increasing, they have to buy those credits. haslinda: tom, all is considered, where are the opportunities for trade finance hedge funds over the next few years?
tom: well, i think it is in the sme space. it' broadly understood that smalls, medium-sized enterprises, they probably make up 80% of job growth in most countries. they are typically under-banked, maybe because of the size of their transactions. so we are seeing a lot of big trading firms and also fund managers coming into the trade asset class. that is because there is a big demand. there's great yield to be had, and we are netting about 6%, 7% for our investors per year. very good volatility. and we have now seen the fixed income market, a lot of volatility in the bond markets as we saw last week, but the fixed income investors are also searching for a stable yield. and the commodity market --
we just managed to get an investment grade grading which is coming up for our fund, and that is giving the opportunity for those bond investors to fund something which is going to net them a strong rock when a lot of bonds -- cash is netting zero and perhaps even negative yields. haslinda: what are you seeing in terms of those sme deals? because we know that in terms of the sem's, they amount to $1.5 trillion. tom: it is massive. we're among a group of companies who are now members of the international chamber of commerce, the icc action group. and also digital standards initiative. the action groups from the icc, which is one of the world's biggest business organizations
headquartered in paris with over 45 million members. they are really pushing to promote trade finance, alternative trade finance, ways of financing, freeing up capital for the sme's to help this post-covid recovery accelerate. creating jobs. we are seeing that with commodity movements as well as national trade. and also the digital standards initiative, which is out of singapore with the icc. that is ashley -- actually making things better because as we saw last year with covid, international trade still relying a lot on paper moving around. if the couriers cannot deliver the bits of paper because of the train stops.vid haslinda: tom, thank you so much for your insights. tom james, tradeflow capital ceo. still to come, the w --
the latest headlines. beijing's curbs on fintech thwarted a massive -- it came as no surprise. the insurance group says ant knew about regulations to been discussed for the past two years. it debuted in nyc days before new checks were unveiled in november, followed by the abrupt suspension of and's -- of ant's ipo. the world's top yogurt maker is converting its investment -- it's held indirectly and is valued at about $1 billion. the majority of the cash would be turned to shareholders in a buyback. they say it understands the decision. new world has closed its flagship mall for two days after an emergence of new coronavirus infections. it will undergo deep cleaning
and will not reopen before tuesday at the earliest. an outbreak of 44 covid-19 cases were in the mall. the landlord is offering free virus tests for staff and tenants. haslinda: myanmar has suffered its deadliest day of protests so far since the february 1 coup. the u.n. says at least 18 protesters were killed in a stark excavation of violence, as they move to quell demonstrations against its takeover. philip hammond joins us now. what happened in myanmar the yesterday that led to all these casualties? philip: yeah, good morning. we have seen a gradual escalation over the day as military and police forces were reported to have used tear gas and fired live rounds at protesters all across the country.
the u.n. noted at least 18 people were killed. at the same time we have now seen reporting that more than 500 protesters had been detained in 11 provinces yesterday alone. more than 1000 people had been arbitrarily arrested since the coup. rishaad: but the thing is, where does it all go from here? i guess i cannot see how long a piece of string is, really. philip: it is difficult to tell right now but i can say the protesters have vowed to continue demonstrations until their demands have been met. they are currently seeking the release of civilian leaders including angst on sushi, recognition of the 2020 election result, which has been voided. as well as the complete withdrawal of military from politics. of course the military in myanmar has been in charge of the country for now several
decade. in terms of where it goes from here, the military and myanmar has had a history of deadly crackdowns against dissent. the u.n. found that 31 people were killed in 2007 during the saffron revolution. while possibly thousands were killed in the 1988 uprising. there is no sign of anything slowing there. haslinda: what has been the international reaction so far? what are we hoping to hear from the u.s. in particular? philip: indeed. as the day went on yesterday we saw an outpouring of grief from several countries including the united states as the death had slowly risen. the u.s. has already responded, announcing sanctions targeting military leaders and called for a return to democracy. it did further signal plans to
respond with measures. that was from president biden's national security advisor saying they were preparing additional actions for the latest outbreak of violence. at the same time we have seen the eu come out with a strong statement challenging the legitimacy of the military government there. and of course the u.n. also condemning the attacks. rishaad: thank you. coming up we have a lot more great interviews to guide you through the day including an exclusive interview. plus the spotify vp as well. stay with us. this is bloomberg. ♪ his is bloomberg. ♪
products and companies that helped to define it. >> it works like magic. >> in 2011, apple was on a roll. products that caught fire included the mac back air, and the iphone 4x, which introduced us to siri. >> ok. >> it was also the last time steve jobs took the stage. 2012 marked mobility, as we saw tesla unveiled its model x, the launch of lyft, and google launch a driverless car. 2013 so virtual worlds dominate. sony playstation 4 made a splash, and google debuted glass. but with a price tag of $1500, you could say the glass never went mass. in 2014, it seems we all needed a little help in the form of an ai personal assistant, amazon alexa. inspired by the computer voice
on board star trek's starship enterprise, alexa offered real-time information and followed commands. >> add wrapping paper to the shopping list. >> i put wrapping paper on the shopping list. >> 2015 was all about the heavens. samsung's galaxy 6 impress critics, and spacex's talk and nine marked a major achievement in reasonable engines. in 2016, more wearables give us apple's air pods, and the first commercial version of the oculus rift, before facebook bought it. in 2017, tesla's model 3 changed the conversation around electric cars, making them more accessible and design wise, more desirable. if it was a convertible you are after, 2018 at microsoft flexing its two-in-one pc. >> you can use at your desk, or you can use on your lap. >> 2019 gave us the magic
kingdom's for a into streaming. dizzily plus debuted -- disney plus debuted. in 2020, uber each generated $4.8 billion in revenue and peloton sales exploded more than 170%, bolstering the home fitness industry. it all brings us to 2021, where we can expect more cloud, more ai, more quantum computing, 5g and more. and oh, that $100 in bitcoin you bought one decade ago is now worth around $5 million. congratulations. emily chang, bloomberg san francisco. rishaad: looking back at a decade of innovation and marking 10 years of our bloomberg technology. haslinda: the best of bloomberg technology, 10 years of innovation, is on monday at 5:00
p.m. eastern. or you can watch it on the terminal tv . the show will feature some of emily chang's original guests a decade ago, including the linkedin cofounder reid hoffman, and palo alto networks chairman. don't miss that. let's do a quick check of the latest business flash headlines. they are selling stakes worth more than $2 billion to ease liquidity issues. they will pay -- they will retain no control after the sale. citigroup is restating fourth-quarter results after writing down part of a loan to revlon. it now has rights of the company after losing a court case of a mistaken payment. citi have been trying to send an
interest payment to some revlon lenders last year when it rang -- wrongly transferred. the australian government is considering further help for headline firms like qantas, which are still struggling with a fallout from the pandemic as the way to subsidy program heads to conclusion. the treasurers says ministers are looking at other measures to support this. -- business. qantas has received $350 million under the wage plan. and walmart has lured two senior goldman sachs bankers to lead a new start up. walmart made headlines last month with plans to offer financial services in a tie up with investment firm. however, it offered little detail of the time. but the head of goldman's consumer bank are joining the new venture. i guess it only highlights how
serious walmart is in this space. rishaad: absolutely. that's key to it, because goldman came out and said the two who had moved to walmart, they wish them all the luck and said they have so much talent anyway that it would not even matter. reading between the lines. it is all about how serious the retailer is to try to intertwine itself and the financial lives of their customers. it is pretty audacious, and it comes against this background of warnings, the banking industry faces tough new challenges. i suppose part of that is regulators have paved the way for corporate giants in silicon valley to expand into payments, as well as other services. you are absolutely right, it is all about their intent and the seriousness behind it, as these two high flyers are poached from
goldman to join the supermarket chain. well, it is a bit more than that. haslinda: it is all about the competition. every company is a tech company now, and every company is taking on the banks. i remember this conversation i had, five years ago we were talking about the competition you face in the future will be the likes of alibaba. so here we are with that increased competition for banks. still ahead on bloomberg tv, an exclusive conversation you will not want to miss. the j.p. morgan chase chairman and ceo joins us for an exclusive conversation from j.p. morgan's 2021 global high yield and leverage finance conference. that is monday afternoon in new york, and if you are in the asia pac region, it is tuesday. plus, we have a lineup of special interviews from the bloomberg's citylab global city summit, including u.s. vice president kamala harris, mary daly, covid response task force
hanslinda: it is almost 11:00 a.m. in singapore and shanghai. i'm haslinda amin. rishaad: i'm rishaad salamat in hong kong. china's recovery slowing as businesses closed for lou e year and virus curbs hit, a survey confirming the figures. hanslinda: global bonds rebound. a sign banks will do more to
keep banks and check -- yields and check. aussie tenure sovereigns jumping more for the first time in a year. rishaad: dozens of activists fate core -- based court on charges of subversion. united states says it stands with the people and freedom of speech is not a crime. hanslinda: and rising crude prices help lift. we speak to one of the leading businesses and in the market, it is pretty much green across the board. asia, a tumble last week. just one question on investors minds. that is how will banks react to the bond yields jump. in hong kong, up about 1%. investors are waiting to see if the hang seng will undertake one of the biggest -- and that's history. the 10 year yield in australia,
1.653. rishaad: the market open in bangkok, it is down, not following the regional trend, down one third of 1%. the thai baht has strengthened, but the nifty, anticipation for a good start to the trading day with the contract and singapore up 1.20 5% as we got the third quarter gdp figure friday after the market, which people say reflect the strong v-shaped recovery for the country. the rupee, 1.4% against the dollar. let's find out once been happening with these seasonal closures in china and how that's been affecting the economy. let's get the first word news with vonnie quinn in new york. >> the recovery in china, slowing last month as factories and businesses closed during the lunar new year holiday and restrictions curbs the usual
frenetic travel season. the pmi, down to a nine-month low of 50.6 in january as export orders plunge. that was lower than the median estimate of 51 in a bloomberg survey. the nonmanufacturing gauge missed forecasts. dozens of hong kong activists are facing court under china's national security law. 47 prominent democracy advocates face charges of subversion. the hearings come days after the opening of the mainland's highest profile annual meeting. the u.s. secretary of state antony blinken says washington condemns the charges. former president donald trump has teased the idea of a white house run in 2024 but has ruled out a new political party as a vehicle. he said a third party was just fake news and it would divide right-leaning voters.
he hinted at another run. >> i am not starting a new party. that was fake news. fake news, no. wouldn't that be brilliant? let's start a new party and to divide our vote so you can never win. vonnie: the top u.s. infectious disease expert dr. anthony fauci is urging people not to shop around or seek a preferred vaccine candidate among the three approved. he spoke after the johnson & johnson shot received the go-ahead from regulators. the one-shot dose is said to be highly effective at preventing severe covid-19 but has a lower efficacy rate then rivals from pfizer and the dharna. >> people need to get vaccinated -- moderna. >> people need to get vaccinated as quickly as possible. if i went to a place where they had johnson & johnson, i would have no hesitancy. vonnie: global news, 24 hours a day on air and on bloomberg quicktake powered by 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm vonnie quinn. this is bloomberg.
rishaad: back to markets, the chairman of dalton investments with expertise in asian equities. how is the week that was been for you? >> it has been a great week. we don't trade bonds, so not such a terrible thing for us and we are not invested in highflying u.s. stocks, so it has not been bad. here? it was a bit of a wobble certainly and perhaps showed some of the fragility if we get the liquidity removed from the system. >> it is interesting, we've talked to a number of clients who are pension funds and increasing the 10 year rate and long-term interest rates has allowed them to sell off some of their equity portfolios because
they are able to release liabilities because the interest rates are higher. higher interest rates affect equities through other means because it provides an alternative investment behind -- besides equities but we invest primarily in asia and the asian growth story is still intact, and as we are value investors looking for companies to buy that are good companies that we can buy the margin of safety, when the markets go down, it gives an entry point into companies that we want to own. rishaad: i think you'd be concentrating on m&a in japan in particular. what is the story there? belita: we have, so japan has gone through six years of corporate governance reform supported by the government. at this point, we've seen actions in the capital markets where traditional japanese companies are bidding for other
japanese companies, which is a phenomenon we haven't seen in a very long time, many years. it is a sign that type of activity is now -- perhaps welcome is a strong word, but accepted by the society as well as by the corporate community in japan, and supported by the government, so this has allowed a number of m&a fights, if you like. competition to buy companies. it has increased pressure on companies that aren't performing well in terms of their stock price, such that when they are approached by investors such as us, they have to consider increasing their dividends or doing a management buyout because they know they could lose control of the company and this is particularly true if the company has a huge amount of cash, because then it makes it more attractive for a potential acquirer. we've seen both of those things
happen and think they will continue to happen and this could pre-stage a new wave of revaluing the japanese market. hanslinda: one of the key themes out there is also china wanting to build its own chip industry, moving away from its reliance from the rest of the world and moving away from the global supply chain. how do you play this theme? belita: this is a very important trend that we will pursue for quite some time, many years and there are two ways to play it. one is to look at the countries and companies that will benefit from the securing of the supply chain by the west as well as china itself. the second way is to continue to play the expansion of the chinese economy. china continues to grow. . it has a lot of runway. because per capita gdp is
so low. there is room to grow in technological areas such as cloud computing as an example. cloud computing is about 1/10 the size of the u.s. at this point and to support cloud computing, you need data centers, so data centers are not well-known, not like companies like alibaba, tencent, or baidu. they are the infrastructure that support these other companies. we are able to find companies like that that have traded more reasonable valuations. hanslinda: china will continue to grow. the question is how strongly and what the strategy will be? the outgoing -- in the upcoming meeting, what are you looking for? belita: the npc will typically, revise the platform for the leadership to talk about their goal for the next five years and
it is coming up in july, they'll probably talk or at least provide some preamble that is positive about how well china has done over the last 3, 4 decades and it has. in terms of the next five years, we believe they will focus on growing both domestically as well as through exports. they call this the dual circulation strategy. there is some concern and doubt about how exports will grow because the ongoing friction not just with the u.s., but also with the rest of the world. there is concern about that. i think they will try hard to manage those best they can, but it is equally important -- may be more important to be able to grow domestically because the middle class is growing, wealth is increasing, and companies that provide goods and services for a growing middle class will do very well. hanslinda: before we let you go, what do you deem the biggest risks for the investments in china?
belita: there are many risks, and i think they tend to fall more on the macro arena. the south china sea tensions is one that everyone is very aware of, as is the friction on trade as well as technology between china, the u.s., and the western world in general, but you also have domestic concerns in china because china can't avoid but look at the fact that their population is aging quite significantly because of the one child policy that continued for many years, so they have to think about going forward, what do we do about this aging possibly up -- population and the fact that local governments are so heavily indebted and state owned banks have such bad loans? there are things to sort out in china that have to be sorted out when we or the other and when that happens, there will be problems for the market. hanslinda: belita ong of belita ong -- of dalton investments.
hanslinda: the fate of president biden's visor's relief package is in the senate's hands after the house of representatives narrowly passed the bill saturday morning. kathleen hays is here. the world was anything but bipartisan, unlike previous. what is expected in the senate? kathleen: i think the answer is
widely expected to be yes. maybe tougher getting through than the house and the bill squeaked through with a two hundred 19-2 hundred 12 democrats to republican vote. now it goes to the senate and there is urgency because on march 14, extended unemployment benefits from the federal government will start expiring. a lawmakers on both sides of the aisle want to take care of them. of course, they disagree on who should get this care and how much it should be. joe biden hopes this bill will get quick action in the senate. he'll have no time to waste. janet yellen, treasury secretary says she's happy. she applauds the favorable vote on virus relief as an economist and american. she tweeted out there's broad consensus people need more help getting food on the table, keeping a roof over their head. this plan does that.
joe biden is in a position of trying to get any republican support he can because there is a 50/50 split here, vice president-elect kamala harris can break the tie but joe mansion, a leading ash -- manchin has question some of it. democrats say the republicans are too cheap, we've got to spend more, go big, many economists echo them and the republicans are saying, this goes beyond pandemic relief. in fact, house representative devin nunes called the biden plan a slush fund for democrats who are going to use it to buy votes. both sides are slinging mud at the other. the question is, can they get compromise and pass $1400 stimulus checks, $400 on a limit checks every weekend vaccine funding, aid to state and local governments. the last one republicans feel
would be allowed, what they consider irresponsible lawmakers in those states who have run up their budget deficits too much. one thing to throw in here, talk of minimum wage because the democrats, president biden pushing hard for a federal $15 minimum wage law. they want to include it in the package but they can't. the senate parliamentarian voted on friday that it didn't fit the rules that have to be followed around reconciliation votes where you only need a simple 51% -- more than 50% of the votes and again, with the democrats, 51 including, harris, they can't get minimum wage through that way. democrats are talking about perhaps getting a 5% tax on big corporations that don't pay their workers $15 an hour. will they have time in barely two weeks to work on something
like that and included in this package? that will be a pretty big question moving ahead. a lot needs to be done soon. rishaad: no doubt we will have some soothing words from this chorus of federal reserve speakers this week. will it be enough? belita: i think it's the question. certainly the fed chair jay powell has been soothing, bond yields have been rising, there is more optimism about the economy, the recovery will unfold, vaccines are coming out, but the other thing with the what if they say gee, this is too much or bond yields could tighten financial conditions? people will be on the edge of their seats in the bond market to figure this out. we have a lot of people to listen to this week as you can see from that picture on monday. john williams, san francisco fed brainerd on financial stability, the presidents will be talking about racial equality so maybe we will look to brainerd for something on the bond market but
on tuesday, but both will be talking about the economy. that's where we could get more about the threat of rising bond yields on wednesday. pat harker, raphael bostic, and charlie evans from the chicago fed will be speaking about the economic outlook. and of course, the big guy. you've got jay powell on thursday. he's speaking about the economic outlook in particular and will probably be taking questions and this is where we could get some juicy headlines. we will be watching all week. rishaad: good stuff. kathleen hays, policy editor. next, the hang seng index may see one of the biggest overhauls in its 51 year long history, potentially making billions of dollars in funds. the details coming up. hanslinda: plus, a look at some of the top analyst recommendations across markets.
the singapore index, in the money, up .7%, the likes of singh air, dbs, all among the biggest gainers right now. keep it here with us. this is bloomberg. so you're a small business, or a big one. you were thriving, but then... oh. ah. okay. plan, pivot. how do you bounce back? you don't, you bounce forward, with serious and reliable internet. powered by the largest gig speed network in america. but is it secure? sure it's secure. and even if the power goes down, your connection doesn't. so how do i do this? you don't do this. we do this, together. bounce forward, with comcast business.
rishaad: you are back with bloomberg markets as we look at the morning calls and get to markets. sophie kamaruddin, morgan stanley leaning into fairy tale metaphors this morning, not to confuse reflation with its ugly step sibling. tell us about that. sophie: morgan stanley coming out with more fairytale metaphors. since september, the view asia's economies will be in goldilocks mode through 2021 and when it comes to overheating prices, they warn against
confusing reflation with bad inflation, noting it is incredibly low in asia and most economies are seen tracking below their pre-covid gdp path. switching out the board, morgan stanley is in the reflation camp. not seeing disruptive tightening in asia this year. subdued price trend outside the commodities rally is also factoring into this view from morgan stanley. hanslinda: on that, goldman seeing the route in commodities may buffer in currencies from higher rates? sophie: in a recent note from goldman sachs, it is a strategist saying the commodity dependent emerging currencies have room to play catch up with the exuberant price gains in oil and copper and the rates market could provide a window to go long high-quality, procyclical
currencies like the rand, mexican peso, and russian ruble. the view from tim theme of and the equities team at goldman, they are staying constructive regional stocks and see chances to buy on correction. a preference for value cyclicals so goldman has upgraded their view on asian energy and insurance sectors to overweight given the reflationary backdrop while lowering internet and media to neutral to trim their duration risks. hanslinda: thank you. sophie kamaruddin, markets reporter. let's check the business flash headlines. china's biggest insurer by market value says beijing's curbs and fintech have thwarted and massive stock sale, and it came as no surprise. the insurance groups gropes -- co-ceo says ant knew about the regulations which have been discussed for two years. it debuted on the new york stock exchange days before new checks were unveiled in november,
followed by the abrupt suspension of ant ipo. the world's top yogurt maker is preparing to sell its taken china menu dairy by converting its investment into a direct holding. the 9.8 percent stake is held indirectly and has a book value of about a billion dollars. the majority of the cash would be returned to shareholders, though a buyback -- three buyback. it understands and respects the decision. rishaad: investors are waiting to find out if the hang seng index will undertake one of its biggest overhauls and 51 year long history. the index will announce whether it will make a raft of changes that could impact tens of billions of dollars in funds that track the stock. . the senior editor richard frost, looking over implications. let's kick things off with the expected changes. richard: that's right, very
exciting moment for long-term hang seng index observers. i think there are a number of changes. the most notable would quadrant matter can increase in the number on the index, as many as 80 from around 50 right now. also, they'll fast-track -- be able to fast-track new. listings onto the index. previously, you could wait as many as two years before you would be eligible. and primary and secondary listings will be able to have a maximum waiting limit. currently, secondary constituents could only be 5%. quite a sizable change for an index that has been around a long time, half a century. hanslinda: what do we make of the timing? why are the compilers doing this now? richard: you could also ask why
didn't they do a long time ago. there's been a long criticism of that. the index hasn't really moved with the changes. the most notable of which have been the increasing flood of chinese mega caps listing. beijing wants to bolster hong kong as a financial center but protection from the u.s., were a lot of these companies have been listing previously. a huge listing here regionally would be one of those examples. it is partly to reflect those changes. rishaad: good stuff. richard frost, looking at the changes to the hang seng index. let's check in with chinese markets as they go offer their lunch break in shanghai and shenzhen. positivity across the board. gains not as pronounced as elsewhere, but holding things back is how the economic
hanslinda: we are counting down to the india open. it is set to join the rally. nifty futures pointing to gains of about 1.4% after the 4% slump we saw friday, which was the biggest plunge in about nine months. some of the markets said the correction might continue for some time to come because of inflation but not today. the day had for india, manufacturing pmi due out later today. the auction also starting today.
15 minutes until they open in india. for now, the first word news with vonnie quinn in new york. vonnie: australian policymakers will not shirk from their defensive yield targets and qe programs ahead of the rba meeting. governor phil lowe will likely hold a response to the reflation trade that is proving a challenge for central banks. they are recovering ash the yacht -- economy has pushed the dollar. five republican senators have warned president biden to keep away from a new nuclear deal with iran, joining some democrats and voicing concerns. they've written to the president saying the 2015 accord is riddled with problems with unrealistic timelines on curbing nuclear activity. biden has indicated he would return to talks with iran but has seen little tangible response. southeast asia is leading ride-hailer is helping inoculate
the nation against covid-19. the program launched as indonesia makes it mandatory to receive shots. it intends to vaccinate 70 million people by august. the chinese super league champion is being -- down as owners said they want to be focus on their core retail business. it one the first leak title -- league title last summer. suning owns italian league leaders but says there will be no one backed on that cup. >> global news, 24 hours a day on air and on bloomberg quicktake powered by 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries.. i'm vonnie quinn. this is bloomberg. hanslinda: markets, convincing gains as calm returns to asia
after -- after that pretty chaotic week. calm returning for now when investors were looking for more reassurance in the coming days as powell delivers comments amid a midmonth policy meeting. the hang seng up 1.2%, the nikkei back from lunch, strong gains of about 2%. we have japan, planning to allow participants in the summer olympics and paralympics into the country. some stocks we are watching here, while hung semi, tracking after the u.s. signaled it would go ahead with a proposed rule. citic securities, perhaps it plans to raise up to $28 billion -- yuan.
in the spotlight, up 2.5%. sony is set to open up its playstation 5 for storage upgrades this summer. that is a snapshot of some of the stocks we are watching today. rishaad: big story in the bond market today, to do with australian yields which have come back as the bond market has rebounded. the rba, doubling down, buying more bonds and buying longer dated bonds and head of the meeting on tuesday. what we have at the moment is the 10 year sovereign yield falling by the most any year and it followed a rise in u.s. treasuries friday. the yields going down all among speculation of central banks doing more to support bonds and yield curve control. what is going on with the oil market where prices have rebounded from last week where
they saw the biggest slump since november. all of this ahead of an out plus producers this week. let's get the latest from our oil markets reporter. what is at stake at this meeting on thursday? >> that's right. a lot is at stake at the moment. we know oil prices have risen more than 25% so far this year's last year because of lack of demand and oil plus -- opec-plus has led the effort to tighten any banks are expecting an undersupplied oil market for the year. market watchers and analysts are expecting opec-plus to taper those output cuts at the upcoming meeting this week. we know saudi arabia has carried a voluntary cut of one million barrels a day in february and
march and we need to see what will happen for april and also the u.s. has so much supplies from the major shale producers, so now that demand is expected to get better from here with more people getting vaccinated, the world wiped out global oil consumption. hanslinda: what is likely to happen if an output hike fall short of market expectations. sharon: it is unclear whether opec-plus will take measures that are vigorous enough for people expecting tapering about put cuts, but if the output falls short of market expectations, that could trigger another oil price rally from here and traders are currently expecting opec-plus to bring back supply when the group meets on march 4 and reduces
output production made last year. saudi arabia's energy minister has warned fellow producers to remain extremely cautious ahead of the meeting, though the fellow leader russia has press for output increases. the group is currently withholding 7 million barrels a day, about 70% of the global supply, and it is committed to restoring about 1.5 million barrels a day, so we will have to see what happens this week. rishaad: we heard talk about $100 a barrel of oil and people are talking about 10,000 tons for copper. one has got an easier path to the other. what is the deal? sharon: we have some oil bulls
not ruling out the return of $100 brent oil. we have azerbaijan cartel trading, triple digits in the next 18 to 24 months while another commodity mentioned also on the te -- also on a tear is copper with electric vehicle infrastructure and renewables. both seemed there is still some room away, but now copper is looking as bullish as $10,000 per ton because the spending on futures might make that possible. so far, people think copper might come sooner than oil, but let's see. hanslinda: bloomberg's oil market reporter, sharon cho. still to come, our exclusive
returned to growth last quarter, ending a recession in time to battle new challenges. -- agriculture contributes about 20% to total gdp. let's bring in balram yadav. good to have you with us. give us a sense of how convincing the recovery is for india, especially when you compare to how the demand for agriculture in india is doing? balram: because of covid, the sector has suffered the most is animal agriculture, one third of gdp. the contraction in demand for poultry, eggs, milk, that demand is still struggling because one third, that is struggling
because of covid because a big part of that consumption is functions that were not existent in the first half of the financial year and have -- i think it will take some more time for that to recover fully, but we also are seeing ambitious because the farmers have not likely to be high in the coming months, largely driven by animal protein. hanslinda: when you take a look at aggravated itself -- goodrej what, will drive revenue this year? balram: a big part of the
consumption is banking on the rapid vaccination we are likely to have. we are likely to vaccinate about 300 million people work most of the consumption. we believe animal protein in volume and prices will do much better. my sense is the expansion top line will grow rapidly. food agriculture has not done badly, but i have a strong feeling food and animal protein are likely to do very well. we are in chicken, milk, animal feeds and you know what is happening in oil prices, they are almost 30% higher than what they were last year at this time. we see not only topline growth, but market expansion in all of our segments.
hanslinda: when we talk about india, we have to talk about the farmers protests which have gained momentum the last couple of months. could that way on india's growth, you think? balram: i think one thing you need to understand is from a lot of laws in india that were granted when we have shortages. now, we are in an era where we are going to generate huge surpluses and that is where free market and free movement of food products is required, because we cannot -- it has to go a competitive prices. tthis is one of the greatest moments for india. my sense is the farmers protesting are misinformed.
this is only concentrated in areas where farmers were getting a lot of support from the government. in india, most of the benefits linked to land, the farmers were investing, but my sense is they can set -- come to some agreement with them and it will help. $150 billion of animal agriculture, one third of agriculture gdp, has not received too much support from the government. you can transport anywhere in the country at any price is the farmer wants and determined by market prices. that sector is growing 8%, 9% for the last 10 years. this is what we have seen free markets can do and we hope the same will happen as these
reforms take root. rishaad: how does that sit? you said india produces more than it can actually consume, but how does that sit with you suggesting we could be seeing food inflation, because there may be shortages? give us an idea. balram: whenever we talk about food, we only talk about -- we will consume about 140 million tons of cereals. can you imagine the surpluses we can generate? however, all other agriculture products, animal and oil are cyclical so we will have supply driving inflation.
low demand, low prices, farmers have missed a few batches. this is cyclical. i think shortages for the next six months will be followed by surpluses all over the world. you will see what is happening in edible oil. shortages will bring in very high price inflation, which will bring more farmers into the game in the next season and then surpluses will come later. obsession with cereals has to go, because we are producing way more than we need. rishaad: i've just got to get a sense, you got this j with tyson foods for ready-to-eat productsv. how is that venture going? is that going to be the model for you as you roll out and try and tap overseas markets? balram: i will tell you food
processing is still taking root in this country, because we have not evolved so much in terms of processed foods. i must tell you that it is a long process. it is growing at 7% or 8%, likely to double as india becomes rich and it will never be a poor country. even though the poultry market is growing, about $12 billion today, but we are very hopeful because even though poultry is growing at 8%, process poultry
is growing 15% for the last 10 years. it is a matter of time that we will get beyond those critical levels were things start happening. sue these things -- two things that are important for processed poultry in this country, food laws and retail. we are very hopeful and very patient this business is growing well and it is a sign of good times to come. rishaad: thank you for joining us. balram yadav of godrej agrovet. coming up, our exclusive interview with spotify as the company plans its biggest expansion yet, including into asia. this is bloomberg. ♪
>> it is a very exciting time for us. this is our broadest market today, part of our commitment to growing a truly borderless audio ecosystem across the world and asia has been a very exciting region for us for many years. we've seen strong growth coming out of indonesia, the philippines, india, and thailand and opening up all these markets, many of which are across the asia-pacific region. we think that will be a strong play for many years to come. juliette: what revenue per user are you targeting here? gustav: when it comes to premium plans across markets, we do our homework and plan accordingly for each market. our pricing each market is different depending on things like purchasing power and macro economic factors. the launch price for premiums across pakistan and sri lanka are above two to three dollars while established markets like
singapore, eight u.s. dollars and singapore, 10 u.s. dollars. we think it will be slightly lower across most of these markets. these are young, online savvy populations but what is important for us is over time as these markets grow and purchasing power increases, we will see strong markets. juliette: what about china? you have the equities with tencent? does your strategy go further? juliette: we have no -- gustav: we have no plans to launch at this point in china. tencent truly is the local leader in china and we think they will have a very successful continued growth in that market. juliette: are you concerned with the move in china or moving forward, what you see from the likes of google and facebook who have faced hurdles? gustav: no, we have no further comments on that topic. juliette: we want to talk about
podcasts. spotify has been investing largely here. there are plans to modify -- monetize but citi put out a note saying some of the investment you've put into podcasts, the likes of joe rogan may not pay off in time. what is your view on trying to monetize podcasts for those, the podcasters themselves but also in terms of your subscription user growth? gustav: we are really excited about our venture into podcasts. we see strong demand from consumers to gobble up all the podcast content we are providing on our service and when it comes to the biggest podcast moves, joe rogan and the renegade with obama and we launched a podcast with barack obama and bruce springsteen. for all these, we are seeing user growth stronger than projected and we are seeing promising signs around the monetization. one thing we are seeing from
tencent when we look at how innovation is going in china, there are new types of monetization models. one way we are bringing out innovative tests this year is paid podcasts, where the creator can set a price for their podcast and put that out to markets. that is one way we are innovating around the format. juliette: clubhouse, gaining traction. do you have concerns people using the platform are switching away from your platform to listen to some of these conversations? gustav: clubhouse is an exciting experience as everyone knows. i've tried a couple of times myself. i think we are in a market and a world where attention for consumers come from many forms and places. as long as we stay focused on building an amazing experience across the verticals we are in, we are excited about user traction we see from that. juliette: what about concern in
competition from the likes of apple when they have the hardware on their platform? you've got apple music, apple podcasts, is hardware something spotify would look at down the track? gustav: we think the strength of our service and experience is we are available across all platforms and not tied to one ecosystem. for families and consumers these days, being able to consume content across platforms is something they appreciate and put value two. we think being a platform in itself on top of apple os, windows, android and so on, is something that is valuable and something we will invest in. we are looking at lots of interesting use cases as consumers go around their life, how can we will just be well integrated into cars and so on, but we have no big plans in that area specifically. hanslinda: spotify vp of markets and subscriber growth, gustav gyllenhammar.
a check of the latest business flash headlines. walmart has lured leaders to start a new fintech startup. the head of goldman's consumer bank and david stocker joining the venture. hong kong is awaiting news of the biggest overhaul for the leading stock index in five decades. hang seng index's will announce a lengthy consultation into the benchmark and increase in constituents, cap company weightings, and fast-track new listings. it comes as mainland chinese companies exert growing influence on the hsi. rishaad: we've got some shopping at the top of asia' ritualist. worth about $80 billion. he was briefly dethroned by the bottle water king in september,
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