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tv   Bloomberg Daybreak Europe  Bloomberg  March 16, 2021 2:00am-3:00am EDT

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ainer makes me want to work out. look at me. it works, 100%. (announcer) find out more at aerotrainer.com. that's aerotrainer.com. manus: good morning from bloomberg's middle east headquarters in dubai. i am manus cranny. annmarie hordern at london hq. it is virulent." -- it is "daybreak: europe." a growing list of nations suspending astrazeneca's vaccine. the eu health minister's me today. the dow and s&p close at record highs as market attention turns
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to the fed and the all-important dot plot. xi jinping issues a strongly worded warning against tech access in a sign of a crackdown that could widen. it is 6:00 a.m. in london, 7:00 a.m. in the heart of europe. good morning and the vaccine program has some further disarray. countries suspending the use of the shot around germany, france, portugal, the latest to pause the use of the vaccine, counting a further assessment by emergency agencies. annmarie: suspensions come despite a statement by the ema last week the number of blood clots in vaccinated people were no higher than the number in the general population. 30 cases have been observed among 5 million people who have received the shot and the cofounder of moderna told us the regulator will be taking a
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cautious approach. >> at the same time, we will learn a lot as the vaccine comes to market and as we detect certain things we need to pursue, and through a scientific method, be able to delineate that which is causally linked verses which happens to be seen but given the large numbers cannot be linked to the vaccine and until that is done, i'm sure the authorities are taking a cautious approach. i think speculation is not helpful. manus: maria tadeo is on the ground in brussels. what precipitated this caution, rising caution by the heart of europe? maria: good morning, manus. it was the decision from germany yesterday to suspend astrazeneca. they worry about the blood clots. they said they want to figure out if this is the direct side effect from the astrazeneca vaccine and the germans have
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taken that decision, very controversial decision yesterday that precipitated the domino effect from the french, italians, the spanish. if you move away from that, i guess you could say it is legitimate to review a vaccine if there are issues or concerns. the problem has been the communications. this has been all over the place for a week now. the european public, whiplash by information that contradicts each other and when you look at the statements from the regulator, the european agency, it is still reiterating we still believe the benefits of the vaccine would outstrip the risks. this is an issue about the vaccine, those concerns which may be legitimate on the blood clots, but this is a pr nightmare for astrazeneca, a blow for the vaccine in just the communications around it, very much all over the place in europe. annmarie: some are suggesting this as as much a political
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decision as it is scientific. what happens next? there are a number of meetings this week. maria: emmanuel macron yesterday said he was suspending the vaccine and would do so until today, and he wanted to see further clarity from the european medicines agency. as i said yesterday, the head of the european medicines agency vaccine unit was repeating he didn't see a problem with astrazeneca. we know there is also a health minister's meeting today and on thursday, there will be a review by the european medicines agency. at that point, it could pull the vaccine altogether or reiterate that message it is still ok to use it but the question in europe is whether or not the reputational damage on astrazeneca has been done already. we've seen anecdotal evidence that when it comes to the take-up, astrazeneca is more problematic than any vaccine on the market.
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annmarie: maria tadeo in brussels, tracking it through the week. four minutes after, we should look at where we are trading. asian equities tracking another all-time high on wall street yesterday, another record set. as some -- on deals coming in lower this morning. fed kicking off day, the fomc and the dollar and 10 year yield will be squarely in focus over the next 48 hours and joining us, pictet multi-asset strategist and she says the per folio has a cyclical still as we favored sectors more sensitive to economic activity and less likely to be adversely affected by real rates. i want to start if you have a cyclical tilt on where you remain in europe given the debacle with the vaccine rollout, this is a bit of a pr issue but also the fact vaccines are not getting to people as
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quickly as possible with this pause. do you see the cyclical tilt in the home of values, europe? >> with respect to europe, there is a case to be made the domestic economy is going to lag back behind the u.s. and u.k. there will be diversions when you look at the domestic picture so i agree when you look at domestic cyclicals, you have to question the outlook. however, there is a lot of europe that is well oriented to demand emanating from elsewhere, particularly when you look at the stimulus in the u.s., whether that results in -- there is a lot of pent-up demand in terms of capex and the consumer balance sheet, healthy conditions so that will pull demand from other places including europe. i think cyclicals oriented toward the rest of the world can still benefit in europe, but there is a question mark
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regarding domestic cyclicals. when i talk about the cyclical tilt in our or polio, i was talking in a global context. we have exposure to travel and leisure, that is where we are building as well as commodities. manus: we will continue the valuation tilt in a moment. good morning to you, but we have a breaking headline from credit suisse. it plays into your narrative come along financials or a proclivity. revenue up 50% year to date. we are only nearly through march. they have idiosyncratic risk around bridge loan, prepaid. 50 million of 140 million loan will be repaid. let's focus on the breaking news about investment bank revenue up 50% year to date and ratcheting yield curves.
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tie those two together for financials this morning. good morning. supriya: yes, i think there are a number of tailwinds for financials and we saw that clearly in the last set of results, q4 results which we just went through. you have investment banks experiencing an improvement in the bottom line in their actual investment banking business including divisions and you saw the larger retail and corporate's businesses benefited from the volume up lift as we entered a period of recovery and when you think about the outlook and tie that together with the steepening of the yield curve, that undoubtedly is a positive for banks. that improved their net income margins which improves profitability. it is a double whammy and in a positive sense, the uplift from the income margin perspective as
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well as volume. there is a favorable outlook for banks and one they haven't had a number of years. annmarie: favorable outlook for banks. the other value you mentioned before the credit suisse breaking news was you like travel and leisure. the stoxx 600 travel and leisure yesterday hit an all-time high and erased pandemic losses. do you see further upside in that sector? supriya: yeah, it is one of those sectors -- looking at the chart of performance, if you look at valuations, you have beneficiaries of covid, the stay-at-home stocks which have experienced a significant surge in valuation last year and stocks like service sectors have well lagged that. while we've seen valuation catch up, there is still a significant divergence and room for further
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evaluation re-rating in these stocks. we would look at both earnings revisions improvement coming through, which we see -- believe is the case as well as further re-rating. we would like to maintain our exposure in this area and we think there is further to go. you remember consumers are in relatively good shape. if you think about the u.s., personal incomes are more than 3% higher than they were before the pandemic thanks to all the stimulus and you've got the $1.9 trillion sitting on their balance sheets. that has to go somewhere. as we reopen, that will be allocated, we think. manus: and you play -- that comment you made plays beautifully to what brian moynihan observed in his consumer data and his growth uplift. i think we've gotten ourselves
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to acyclic logical -- psychological point where we fear growth, rates at 1.8%. it is almost paranoia, but undoubtedly growth and value and citi had a note out that growth and value, value can trade up another 20%. they are focused on real yields as being the driver of that. how important is the real move to you and do you think there is another 20% left in the trade? supriya: yeah, so yields moving higher is a natural consequence. basically what we believe will be an economic boom this year as well as rotation from bonds to equities. that is very much in process. there are 100 basis points or so increase in nominal yields we've seen since the low 16 months ago. that is entirely in line with the previous recession period.
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what creates more disruption for the market is if there is a moving real yields, which is more volatile disruptive. we take some comfort from the fact credit spreads have been supportive and the move in real yields is partly a response to expectations of how our economic growth -- higher economic growth. we are fearing growth, well ahead of what the fed is telling us they will do. we will see what they say this week, and what we would expect. the fed has said there is a high bar to inflation data in terms of their approach to how they view inflation with rate rises. we don't think that is entirely realistic and it is to your point of investors fearing growth and not knowing how to connect that to the central bank reaction function which is different from what we've seen in past cycles.
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manus: and it depends on what your demographic is when you look at the interest rate normalization. supriya menon, pictet asset management. annmarie has more time for normalization than i have. senior multi-asset strategist. laura wright has got the first word news. laura: president biden is said to be planning the first major federal tax hike in nearly 30 years. to the proposal will mostly affect those earning more than $400,000 a year. the aim is to pay for some of the president's long-standing economic and infrastructure plans. the french economy looks to be weathering the pandemic and government restrictions better than forecast. the bank of france says that puts the economy on a path to stronger growth this year. activity fell less than expected at the end of 2020 despite the lockdown in november. global news, 24 hours a day on air and on bloomberg quicktake powered by 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries.
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this is bloomberg. annmarie: laura wright, thank you. coming up on the program, following the dots. bloomberg economics says you might drift higher, but the committee will hold the line. sounds like a read its chat. that is next. this is bloomberg. ♪
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manus: it is "daybreak: europe." i am manus cranny. do you trust the dot plot? what can happen in this fed meeting? don't forget, in september, no rate hike penciled in for this year. one person thought 2022 and five went for 2023. could we see a consensus to 2023 for the first rate hike?
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supriya menon is with pictet asset management, senior multi-asset strategist. do you think they will use the dot plot is a clear indicator of yes, we are awake to the risks of growth and inflation? good morning. supriya: certainly something we will be watching closely. yes, it is meant to be a reflection of how they view those risks. however, we think while there is some possibility you could have a few dots moving toward penciling in one rate hike in 2023, what we have currently for market pricing is about one rate hike in 2022, 2023, and another half. doing a half before the first quarter of 2024, well ahead of what we saw this last dot plot and ahead of what the fed is telling us they will likely do in terms of the rhetoric that
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has come out of them. they would have to taper first. to taper their asset purchases, weight, take stock, then move on to the prospect of rate hikes. this will take time and we need to see significant and sustained inflation pressure before we move that direction. yes, there is a possibility of the dot plot moving, not as much as the market is pricing. annmarie: powell has a tough line to walk this week anyway. he wants to remain accommodative, but the fomc will be upgrading the growth forecast. what is the language you expect from jay powell tomorrow? supriya: some of the rhetoric has been broader, but what the market will be looking for is more concrete action and that is things like are they going to twist their purchases? perhaps by more long and then shortened -- short and?
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another thing they are looking at is leveraged ratio. there is an exemption around that postponement of one that kicks in and specifically what we will be looking at is whether he pushes the exemption in place for banks to exempt treasury securities and cash held at the federal reserve from the assets against which they have to hold capital. if that were to happen, that would constrain treasury purchases. we will see if they move around that. that is one thing the market will be looking for in addition. manus: it is interesting about the plumbing there. the other thing, i want to pick your brain on this. we saw the rba come out with very clear guidance about wages, the rates at which wages rise. i'm drawn to the deutsche bank line. this is a market, the u.s.
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market, the rates market, that crave calendar guidance in some way. the fed has set this up, that it is outcome based and i look at the rba talking about wages and sustainability, the two to 3% so they are being more exacting and i'm drawn to that level of guidance. is that where powell needs to move us to? supriya: maybe. the more specific they are with guidance, the more they are tied to it and right now, their approach toward inflation, it is still a little bit -- leaves enough room to be flexible about it. we don't know exactly how much higher the target inflation needs to go for them to be concerned. is a 2.5%? how long would it have to stay there? it gives them more flexibility so it is a fine line and they have to tread lightly when it comes -- carefully when it comes
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to being more specific because it restricts what they can do. annmarie: the fine line will be watching tomorrow. supriya menon, pictet asset management senior multi-asset strategist. coming up on the program, brian moynihan tells bloomberg he doesn't fear any competitor, not even walmart's fintech start-up. next, our exclusive interview with the bank of america ceo. this is bloomberg. ♪
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manus: this is bloomberg brian: -- bloomberg "daybreak: europe." bank of america is ready to compete with walmart's fintech start-up. brian moynihan doesn't fear any competitors. in an interview with bloomberg, he says the bank of america has an advantage because of scale. brian: so far, so good and we
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will see how it plays out. we've got the rest of the quarter and year to finish. jimmy and the team under tom's leadership have done a great job and matt at investment banking and corporate bank aside, they've done a great job. we've had three record quarters in 2020 and had strong trading in 2020 but you have to step back and think about what does that really do? what that represents his clients were able to raise capital and position themselves through this crisis in ways that were pretty remarkable. people needed capital to build a bridge to the other side of the crisis and were able to raise that and we were able to help them do it. that's pretty amazing. i think it goes to show you in the u.s. especially, the resiliency of the economy and capital market is driven by investor capital. it is unique on a worldwide basis. david: look out over the horizon a little bit. of -- walmart looks like it might be going into the business banking business.
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bank of america stroke -- so strong with your network and particularly with retail banking, are you concerned a walmart could come in and compete effectively? brian: we looked at all potential competitors, thousands of banks that are great competitors today, but we basically define what we are going to do. in a core retail bank, what makes us unique is we serve all segments of clients. mass-market retail clients, wealthy retail clients, small businesses, medium-sized and large businesses and capital markets. that franchise is second to none and we can drive growth across it all. when you think about competitors coming in, we study all competitor moves whether it is fintech disruptors are major players and look at what could they appeal to the customer and do we have what we need to appeal? we just crossed 40 million digital customers at bank of america. we are seeing half hour activity
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in the wealth management business going digital. i respect every competitor, i don't fear any competitor, but the job in management is to drive this company hard. annmarie: brian moynihan speaking to bloomberg yesterday. let's bring you pictures of tokyo. the u.s. secretary of state antony blinken and lloyd austin holding meetings with the foreign defense minister of japan. blinken saying this is his first overseas visit as secretary of state and they are talking about the importance of relationships in asia, tackling security, climate on and north korea, cybersecurity. this meeting, this trip is intended to reassure u.s. allies of washington's commitment and after this, they will be heading off to seoul. they are in tokyo and you see them at the roundtable. somewhat socially distanced, but masks.
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next, they will be heading to seoul. manus: they are going to meet with prime minister later on. interesting because two of the strategic relationships they have in the region are japan and south korea, beginning military exercises with south korea, which draws the ire of north korea and we are seeing some blowback from north korea. i think kim jong-un the's sister is talking about the biden administration, do not make a stink. they will meet with the prime minister who is planning to go to washington in april and what will be biden's first face-to-face meeting with a foreign leader since becoming president. significant he pivots to asia and not the middle east for his first meeting. annmarie: very significant. coming up as we kept an eye on the pictures out of tokyo, we will be looking at electrification. volkswagen targeting one million ev sales in 2021. that is next. this is bloomberg.
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annmarie: from bloomberg's european headquarters in london, i am annmarie hordern with manus cranny live in dubai. here is "daybreak: europe." germany, france, italy join a list of nations suspending astrazeneca's vaccine. you health minister's meet today. credit suisse investor -- jumps on a strong trading performance.
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plus, xi jinping issues a strongly worded warning against tech access in a sign the crackdown could widen. manus, 6:30 am and london, 7:30 in europe. another all-time record high on wall street yesterday. manus: that carries through. does the value to growth trade carry through? citigroup saying it may. asia up .5%, 39.57 after records were delivered and the bond market, sub 160. what is the goldilocks scenario for jay powell? will there be patience from the bond market? it is all about the dot plot. could they shift to a rate hike in 2023 and the dollar-yen around a nine month high. let's talk about the vaccination program in europe. it sunk further into disarray as
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countries suspended the use of the astrazeneca shot. you've got germany, france, italy, portugal just becoming the latest nations to pause on the vaccine pending further assessment i the european medicines agency. annmarie: and the suspensions come despite a statement by the ema last week the number of blood clots in vaccinated people was no higher than the number seen in the general population. right now, 30 cases have been observed among 5 million people who have received the shot and a cofounder of moderna told us the regulator will be taking a cautious approach. take a listen. >> we are going to learn a lot has the vaccine comes to the market and as we detect certain things, we need to pursue them, wrestle them to the ground, and through a scientific method, be able to delineate that which is causally linked verses which happens to be seen but given the large numbers cannot be linked to the vaccine and until that is
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done, i'm sure the authorities are taking a cautious approach. doing just that, i think speculation is not helpful. manus: moderna's ceo speaking to bloomberg. to the automakers, volkswagen planning one million electric vehicles in 2021. it is europe's largest car maker and planning to build six battery factories and invest globally in charging stations. the push will cost $29 billion. volkswagen is stepping up efforts to unseat tesla as the dominant electric carmaker. the ceo spoke from wolfsburg germany during the power day. >> our goal is to secure a bold position in the global scaling of batteries. we will make charging as easy as fueling by strengthening our charging network in europe, the
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united states, and china. annmarie: joining us from berlin is matt miller, knows a thing or two about cars. this is a big expansion in ev's. are they trying to battle tesla and on the european market or is this more of a global push? matt: they are aiming to double tesla sales this year. it looks like they want the crown now. there is a lot of emphasis on the speed of this rollout. herbert diess is spending about $200 billion in total on technology, software, batteries, electric vehicle development and sales, so he's really serious about this pivot. he's got the most concrete plan of any major automaker in terms of the ev buildout, looking to build and sell 50 different models by 2030, but 2030 is a
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long way off. they are doing a lot right now in terms of ev, as they shared yesterday at their power day. annmarie: the question really is , you are obsessed with cars. are you ever going to get an ev? matt: um, you know what? i actually would. i drove the audi and really enjoyed it. my problem was that weren't enough charging stations around for me to make good use of it on longer trips, but as manus just said, he's pushing the charging network as well. he made a partnership with bp, an announcement about a partnership and they are already in other partnerships to build out charging networks so they want to make this happen and their vehicles are going to offer to a charging so if you are living -- two-way charging. if you live in texas, you can plug in your car and run the heat with the vehicle. annmarie: all about the charging
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network. our thanks to bloomberg's matt miller and you don't want to miss a conversation matt will have later this morning, speaking to the volkswagen ceo herbert diess about the company's ambitions to lead the race in the ev car making. don't miss that interview 7:00 a.m. london time in about 30 minutes. let's get your first word news with laura wright. laura: it is not the time to hold cash or bonds. that's what billionaire investor ray dalio says. he's encouraging -- he thinks the economics of investing in most financial assets has become in his words stupid. in a post on linkedin, he wrote why not buy any stuff that will equal inflation or better? after hitting a new record over the weekend, bitcoin is reminding investors of its volatility after swapping $61,000, it is back to 54,000. it surged about 1000% over the
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past year, much more than traditional assets like stocks or gold. the u.n. says at least 138 people -- protesters have been killed in myanmar as part of the crackdown. security forces have extended martial law to more areas of the commercial capital. the violence was sparked by the military coup on february 1. global news, 24 hours a day on air and on bloomberg quicktake powered by 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. manus: thank you. laura wright at london hq. europe's biggest countries halt the astrazeneca vaccine. germany, france, italy all stopped distribution following reports of serious blood clotting. the measures mean further delays to the already sluggish e.u. vaccine campaign and the drugs were later -- regulator says the benefits of the shot outweigh
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the risks. joining us is bertram. astrazeneca says safety incidents of blood clotting is minimal according to empirical research they have done and yet we have a roll call of countries pausing the use of this vaccine. is this politics at play over science? >> i have no strong insight why various governments have been doing this. the first thing we should note is the european medical agency has authorized the use of the vaccine and i think really what the european leaders should think about very carefully is weighing the relative risks. here, we have perhaps a small risk -- i'm not even sure how big it is. that is for medical personnel to judge, but there is big risk on the other hand of not
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vaccinating people and literally if you are not vaccinated, you are at risk and your life is at risk, so all of these things, it looks like quite an uncoordinated, spontaneous decision that is out of political nervousness of what is happening in europe. annmarie: you noted in january about anti-vaccination movements may be pushing the hand of the political leaders. do you think that is at play now and how much harder is it going to be for those anti-baxter's to not want to go get a shot that governments are pausing? guntram: i think these kinds of moves are devastating if you want to have a rapid rollout of your vaccines, because basically citizens get nervous and even those that are not anti-vaxxers will say wait a minute. even the government has voiced
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some concerns, so it really risks delaying the take-up of the vaccines further. even the ones that have no problems wver. as a consequence, the recovery will get further delayed because people have to stay home. manus: this vaccination campaign, the stop-start in germany has delivered a blow in the polls. the handling of the pandemic, vaccination has some would say damaged angela merkel. what is the risk of a political vacuum emerging, as merkel's term ends? guntram: yes, i think there is a lot of political volatility this year in germany. i think it is very difficult to predict who is going to win in the september federal elections, who is going to even be the main
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candidates, what kind of coalitions are going to be possible. all of this is quite uncertain at the moment because i think mostly because of the health situation and the uncertainty it creates and the huge dissatisfaction in the population. we've seen the regional elections, angela merkel's party lost a lot of votes, the far-right also lost a lot. that is interesting because the far-right is an anti-vaccine, anti-covid party, even saying there is no covid so both of those parties lost but the greens gained, so the trend seems to be the greens gained, the social democrats stayed constant, the deliverers gained so we could see a different
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coalition to the one currently in power in berlin at the end of this year. annmarie: who is europe's next natural leader and what is the risk if there is no one to fill her shoes? guntram: i mean, i think even if you had a strong candidate already in the waiting that would win the chancellery, he wouldn't immediately be of her statute and her impact and her experience at the european union, so clearly for anyone, these are big shoes to fill but indeed, if there is a shaky coalition in berlin with a small majority potentially, that means also the next german chancellor isn't going to be a strong leader of europe, so i think there is a lot of steak that goes well beyond germany. it really has an impact on europe as a whole. manus: let's do the pivot here on matt: -- on "daybreak: europe
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." the vaccine gets filled immediately, and the person who does it is mario draghi. the pivot to draghi and italy has potentially huge fiscal implications and the way europe is run. he's the natural person to lead europe really, after merkel goes? guntram: look, mario draghi i think is an extremely smart person and has been a very effective leader of the european central bank and his main task at this stage is really to lead italy and i think he focuses very sharply on what is at stake in italy. if he does that, and if he manages to put in place those reforms that most economies think italy needed to do for a decade but no politician was in italy to do, if he manages to do that, he could turn around italy and if he turns around italy and
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gets a growth story going in italy, he will really be extremely impactful at the european level and together with macron, they will really shape european fiscal policy making i'm sure. annmarie: the debate is merging -- emerging about the german debt burden, something that is catching the eye of a technocrat like mario draghi. it is lifted because of the pandemic but supposed to come back next year. do you think that is correct? where are you on this debate? guntram: the german debt break has been there for quite some time now and we now know it has negative consequences on the german economy, and it has negative consequences on the eu as a whole. the main negative consequence for germany is it really disincentivizes public investment and as a result, public investment has been very low, very weak in germany for a
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decade, more than a decade and that fiscal drag, lack of demand and lack of investment into the future has become a real obstacle for growth and the recovery of the eu as a whole. really, there is a reform debate, but it is going to be extremely difficult to get reform because it is in the constitution, so what people are looking at is are there ways of sized getting? -- debting? by having some investment association, investment unit that is accounting wise outside the debt break but de facto does these investments? that is the way we will travel because the political majority for a two third majority to really change the debt break and get something in for investment just isn't there. annmarie: thank you so much for your time this morning. bruegel director on everything
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vaccine and what it means for the political say which ration in europe -- situation in europe. president xi jinping warns beijing will go after so-called platform companies. the latest on china's tech crackdown live from con tong -- hong kong next. this is bloomberg. ♪ mberg. ♪
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annmarie: this is "daybreak: europe." i am annmarie hordern with manus cranny. xi jinping warns beijing will go after so-called platform companies as china's tech crackdown widens. the president is ordering the oversight of internet firms, crackdown on monopolies, and promote fair competition. they allegedly have their sights set on tencent after cracking down on ant group.
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thank you for joining us. pretty strong language from what we hear on china state media. what is your take on what is coming out of china today from president xi? >> as you mentioned, china kicked off its tech crackdown at the end of last year and it is the first time the top guy gave a d killed comment on the situation. -- detailed comment on the situation. xi jinping mentioning beijing will go after tech companies. they didn't mention names but the so called economies include everything from social media to e-commerce to ride-hailing and food delivery and one of the key points in the meeting is that all financial activities will be scrutinized by the financial regulators. that point is interesting because we just reported last week that the financial
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watchdogs are going after tencent fintech as their next target after the clamp on jack ma's ant. the message is clear that the top leadership is going after the tech industry, not just one or two companies. manus: good morning. what do you think this means for china's tech sector? we've often touched on american tech, chinese tech, and the ecosystems and where you want to be positioned, but if this is the overarching arm of regulation coming to bear on china's tech sector, what does it mean? zheping: right, i guess over the past decade, the chinese tech sector has been expanded with few government scrutiny and now, the government is growingly becoming aware of the power companies like alibaba and tencent have amassed, whether we
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are talking about the data, sensitive information, or the ability to just control sectors like ride-hailing and food delivery. that's jobs related to millions of people in china so beijing is starting to get worried about their influence and through the tech crackdown and the personal leadership under xi jinping, these are the things the government wants to change. increasingly, we will see tighter regulatory control. whether it is about enforcement or lawmaking. manus: ok, let's see what the regulation brings. zheping huang, our reporter on chinese tech. following that conversation, we are going to join the dots. bloomberg economics says a few of the dot plot on the fed may
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drift higher. what will the committee's message be to the market? we will look ahead to the fed. this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> at the same time, we are going to learn a lot as the vaccine comes to the market and as we detect certain things we need to pursue them, wrestle them to the ground and through a scientific message -- method, be able to delineate that which is causally linked versus that which happens to be seen but given the large numbers cannot be linked to the vaccine and until that is done, and i'm sure the authorities are taking a cautious approach doing just that, i think speculation is not helpful. annmarie: the cofounder of moderna reacting to the news of more suspensions for astra vaccine. we will be hearing from the european health ministers today
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as they meet virtually. an hour from the start of european trading, european futures are looking brighter. the record high on wall street, really setting the tone for tuesday morning, but it is all about the fed. day one of fomc, bonds under 1.6% and the dollar will be center stage over the next 48 hours. as we await the fed. expectations to remain dovish. they have a tough line to walk, don't they? manus: and the guest this hour pushed back against my narrative, the rba had been so explicit in their guidance that would box the fed in. that's why i liked guests who disagree with me. it is all about the dots. i love this narrative from ray dalio. ray dalio said on the bond market being short bonds, low risk, short whatever you want, but look at this. paid less than inflation -- a shocking narrative. why not buy stuff?
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any stuff that would equal the rate of inflation or better? the risk, annmarie hordern, as it is hard to find stuff you feel comfortable making the risk, which equals inflation and/or better. herein lies the point. he goes on to talk about shocking tax increases, classic bubble formations, but apparently the producer of this show is obsessed about the dots. you should have the last word about the dots. annmarie: december, what did we have? they were projecting to hold rates near zero 2023. everyone will be focused on the threat of the dots because money markets are saying that might have to come in a little bit. it is going to be all about the dots tomorrow. manus: no hike in december, no hike in 2021, one brave soul for 2022, and 52023. that needs to move. there is always a brave soul. this has been an enjoyable show,
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hasn't it? annmarie: certainly, but that does it for us. anna edwards is next, she'll bring the european open. this is bloomberg. ♪
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anna: good morning and welcome to "european open," i am anna edwards live in london. our editor joins me to take us through the market out -- market action. here are the top headlines. the dow and s&p closed at record highs as market attention turns to the fed and all important dot plots. european futures trade higher. europe's vaccine campaign in turmoil.

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