tv Bloomberg Markets Asia Bloomberg March 28, 2021 10:00pm-12:00am EDT
record close for the s&p 500. this after the surge of block trades in the u.s.. >> china expands its tit-for-tat actions with sanctions for the u.s. and canada, the growing fight over the alleged human rights abuses in changing his dragging major brands into the fallout. rishaad: and we speak about the major online travel platform, or go to -- hokoda. we are looking at some gains across the board. the nikkei 225, looking at that once through. substantial losses. they could see a significant loss from u.s. climb. that has lewis and that stock south. the hang seng cleanin -- clin ging onto positive territory.
this checking in on the dollar indexes as it goes above 28 200. we could be seeing further gains ahead for the dollar itself. 10 year yields, 1.56%. it is a situation where we are seeing more and more efforts. gold pretty much unchanged thus far. juliette: u.s. traders bracing for a potential continuation of the extraordinary volatility we saw on friday after a block trade based $35 billion in value. su keenan joins us for more on this. we learned that morgan stanley is involved. >> morgan stanley shopping around 45 million shares, that
has come to about 2.2 billion. believed to be on behalf of the same person at the center of this huge block trade selloff. that would be hwang's archegos capital. this would be referred to as the greatest margin call of all time. two people close to the matter say that archie goes capital -- archegos capital was forced to sell 20 billion in stock in a few hours in nine different positions and it all started to move against him earlier in the week. if you look at the trade on friday alone, the block trades of these particular stocks, many of them some of the largest china tech companies like baidu
and the biggest u.s. media companies like viacomcbs. you can see the biggest massive losses. goldman, morgan stanley and other banks executed billions in sales. goldman had previously blacklisted hwang because of insider trading shortages years ago the big fees that he was willing to play have been going to a lot of goldman's rivals. in recent years, they welcomed him back. rishaad: thank you, su. let's get a bit more on the market. let's get to mark from our markets live team. what are people making a middle? mark: at the moment, people are really interested in the story. u.s. stocks surged into the
close on friday. this is the backdrop despite seeing some weakness and former popular themes like china stock. we are aware that there shoutoc. in that context, it is amazing how bullish the broader price action is. we see futures down about .5% today. we are not seeing broader weakness yet. there is a lot of uncertainty around the story. they don't know if most of the impact has been felt or if there is another round to go. juliette: you say in terms of some bullish momentum, we are seeing that with coals. when it comes to asia, it looks like the bullish momentum continues.
mark: it seems like many people are seeing some of this turmoil as a result of the block trade t-- story. you sell it on friday with the u.s. equity futures. it seems that the view for many people out there is that we just had to liquidate some divisions. this is a better environment. we have the fact that there is rebalancing. we are seeing rising virus numbers. timmy, there is some risk on the horizon. the market is taking this news of the block trade volatility very much in stride. juliette: that was mark in singapore for us. you can follow mark and his team
on his live blog. let's go to new york now and get the first word news with vonnie quinn. vonnie: china will announce sanctions against canadian officials. they are prohibited from entering mainland china and macau. tensions between china and western countries have flared over forced labor. the vaccines will be produced by a joint venture between sinopharm and abu dhabi based company.
they are digging up parts of the suez canal to help dislodge that container ship. they managed to bug the ship by nearly 30 meters on tuesday. more than 45--- 450 ships are backed up at the canal. 410 protesters were killed by the military over the weekend in myanmar. according to a pro-democracy group, the debt includes several children. this -- sparked condemnation from many governemtns around the globe. -- governments around the globe. global news, 24 hours a day on air and on quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am vonnie quinn. >> still ahead, the timeline to
survey. president joe biden is planning on unveiling a further stimulus program. a lot to get through an ally for investors to chew on. give us a sense of what you are looking for in paticular. >> the message will reinforce the idea that we will see in a stream with strong economy in the u.s. china, korea and taiwan have been moderating. the virus hit this part of the world first and that is partly just the dynamics of the disease. but we were expecting this extremely strong fiscal stimulus in the u.s.. that will really power growth in the u.s. and europe as europe comes out of lockdown. in the middle of this year, we will see annualized gdp growth north of 10%. i don't think we have ever seen
growth that strong in these countries. this is coming out of lockdown's. we are going to see extraordinarily strong growth in the u.s. and europe. that will benefit exporters in asia. but the broader story in this part of the world is that domestic demand is really struggling to get going after the inability to vaccinate large numbers of the population, that is really holding back the domestic recovery in asia. rishaad: also, we are hearing we are going to get a third way. we have possibly a $3 trillion infrastructure packets coming out of the biden administration. are we also borrowing growth from the future? michael: to some extent, of course. your running large fiscal deficits. debt will go up. what has changed in policymakers thinking is after the global financial crisis a decade ago,
they quickly went into austerity mode and that short-circuited the recovery. this time around, i think what you're seeing from the u.s. is 1.9 trillion in the fiscal stimulus package. they are already talking about the multitrillion dollar infrastructure investment program over the next five years. that is going to support growth in 2023 as the economy will be slowing back down to trend. the thinking this time around is with interest rates extremely low if not negative, there is not need to tighten the fiscal belt the way it was perceived to be a decade ago. this will allow these economists to continue to grow quickly. we will have to get used to much higher debt levels and as you alluded to, the risk is that inflation leads to the upside and drives interest rates higher and that short-circuits the plan currently to have this very easy
fiscal policy continue through 2023. juliette: but we are looking at tightening. i assume the pboc is one of the first in your four sites. what are you expect from the asian central banks into 2022 and the latter part of this year? michael: the pboc has already started to ease off of the stimulus in the middle of last year. interest rates have bounced back up to pre-covid levels, credit growth was slowing down and the message for 20 to anyone is moderation, gradually withdrawing this fiscal and monetary stimulus. we think that could transfer into 20 basis points in the second half of this year. the other central banks in asia, for the most part, you're looking at central banks that won't be in a hurry to tighten
monetary policy. the ucb probably long after that. we think that by the middle of next year, most other asian central banks will have started raising rates but to be honest, it is not a tremendously high conviction view. the view is they want to be done with normalizing policy before the fed starts. that leaves them to or three years from this point to get that done. our view is by the middle of next year, most of them will have raised rates. maybe 1, 2, 3 of the most will have raised rates in 2021. a similar base in 2022. juliette: which of the economies are you most concerned about in asia? michael: it is the philippines, indonesia, malaysia, i still
have to worry about india even though they have done remarkably well over the last year. in the philippines, indonesia and malaysia, the vaccine rollout was expected to be slow, it has been extremely slow. they are struggling to contain the virus, there are new lockdowns. where domestic demand will remain extremely weak, people are simply unable to or afraid to go back to a more normal economic existence. export are doing extremely well, domestic consumption and investment will probably remain weak for another year at least. rishaad: michael, a pleasure. coming up, this homecoming debuted in hong kong about one hour ago. we will be speaking with the ceo
juliette: another homecoming for a chinese u.s. traded firm, the fast growing video service has been transformed from a hub of m&a to china's top performer in a decade. we spoke to the ceo about the future. chen: we planned for listing in hong kong a while ago. airplanes will be changing because of short-term fluctuations. we also encountered market fluctuations when we were knit
-- when we were listed on the nasdaq a few years ago. we have and fell on our first daytrading. but i told my colleagues not to worry about short-term stock performance. nobody will remember whether your stock went up or down at the debut in 10 years time. rishaad: what about the money with the spec an ipo? >> the business model is driven by the content ecosystem. we will spend massive money on content building. services for content creators, big data and content infrastructure like bandwidth. we will also spend money on i.t. -- ip management and content generation. rishaad: there is a lot of screwtape on the injury from regulators. how do you see that playing out?
chen: if you watch videos on our platform, there are thousands of types of videos and it is very dynamic and diverse content platform. this shows that creators in china have enough freedom to produce the content they want. i would still describe the environment facing bill billy in china as benign. we have also put in massive content compliance and security. >> the competition in the sector is very competitive. >> i think video is asian -- videoization will be a big part of the internet for coming years. i believe all internet users
will become video users. that means the market will be in ultra high-speed growth. it will be any parental market. we don't have to have had on competition and we can all expand our own market. >> building out the growth over this. how long will that continue? chen: we will focus more on growth. i believe both growth and profitability are just means. you only gain competitiveness when you have better content that users like in video platforms. it is a giant, incremental market. for the next several years, we
will focus on user growth and market expansion. rishaad: that was the bill billy ceo, chen rui talking to tom mackenzie. rishaad: what have we got here? sofia: good morning, it is interesting that he mentioned in the interview that nobody will remember the first day of performance in 10 years time but people do remember it now. the fact that the stocks were down about 3%, it is kind of an abortion a day to be trading in hong kong. bill billy has applied -- a prime listing in the u.s.. the stock dropped 9% since the
company priced its hong kong listing. there is a sense that a lot of these chinese companies listed in the u.s. are really rushing to sell shares in hong kong before market sentiment gets any worse. there are such a huge amount of shares in the first quarter already shaping up to be the biggest in the city. timing, not so good. that could provide some kind of support for the stocks later. juliette: let's get to the latest business flash headlines. namura sharies are -- shares are sliding in tokyo, stemming
from transactions with the u.s. client to the tune of $2 billion. the japanese brokerage also canceled plans to sell denominated bonds. the backlash on shenzhen is going. at least six stores in some lower tier cities were shut after h&m expressed some -- concern about forced labor used in some areas. china's biggest older data oil refiner has posted a profit of $5.1 billion -- oil refiner has posted a profit of $5.1 billion.
rishaad: let's look at the stocks moving in japan. let's look at some of the key movers there. nomura was seeing some losses after some transactions with the u.s. client. they came out to about $2 billion. fellow game makers, bandai and sega as well. they just revealed that they made the investment there. they raise the for your netview to 1.1 7 billion yen. revenues much higher than expected.
>> it is 10:29 a.m. in hong kong and shanghai. i am vonnie quinn. angela merkel is threatening to assert federal control over the pandemic measures. she expressed exasperation with which she called broken commitment from state leaders who have direct authority to im pose health and safety rules. more than 28,000 new cases were reported saturday. brisbane will enter a snap sh t
todwn. -- shutdown. residents will only be able to leave their homes for food, exercise and necessities. australia is investigating a potential cyberattack involving government issued smartphones and tablets. the email network was shut down due to the financial bridge. this is linked to an external provider. at least 14 people were injured after a suspected suicide bombing at a catholic church in central indonesia. according to initial report, to people on a motorbike attempted to enter the yard but were stopped by security.
no group has claimed responsibility for the attack. air pollution levels surged to the upper limits as the sky turned yellow and visibility was reduced to less than 1000 meters in the state -- city. residents were urged to stay inside because of health risks. several other northern provinces were also affected. anti-dumping tariffs in china of australian wine. this comes after an escalation of tariffs on a range of products. global news, 24 hours a day on air and on the brooks quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts. i am vonnie quinn, this is bloomberg.
rishaad: we have more than 410 protesters reportedly killed in myanmar in clashes with the military. some out there are saying that the death toll is much higher than what has been reported. >> at least 114 people were killed on saturday including civilians taking part in the demonstrations. another nine deaths reported on sunday. that would bring the total to at least 469 since the cu started last month -- coup started last month. >> have we heard from the ousted leader about what has been going on as well? >> we have not. i don't anybody has. she has been in court a few times since the coup.
militaries are continuing to build charges on her for a wide range of things including allegedly carrying a legal walkie-talkies. we have heard from some key allies that would serve to build of the military. they are calling for her immediate release and for the military to stop the killing. as i mentioned, that is more than 450. rishaad: what has been the international response, there is a lot of condemnation going on. is there anything that has gone beyond that? philip: the reaction from the u.s. has been quite strong. we just heard biden saying that where sanctions could be on the way.
they targeted two of the biggest companies. they are responsible for dozens of companies. these come from european allies and we are starting to see some movement there. unfortunately, when you have china and russia blocking any un security council sanctions, that dampens the ability for the international community to build some more meaningful sanctions. >> that was philip hammond's -- haijmans. calling for the minority to be integrated back into society for a federal army to be set up and for more pressure from the international community to oust the military.
haslinda oven spoke -- amin spoke to him. >> this is bold economically and diplomatically. these will stop. china, our neighbor like india, they have the power to stop it. they have the empathy to stop it. we are asking them to stop it because this is becoming out of control. >> you're talking about the international community. what about china? what role would you like china to play? >> i believe china has the power to stop the military generals if
they want to. they want to see myanmar stay with the myanmar economy and politics because it is good for china to have -- myanmar have a stable economy and politics because it is good for china. we all have to come together. >> the u.n. is urging the people not to take up arms as that may justify the use of violence against the people themselves. what is the risk that the people of myanmar may be taking up arms to defend themselves? >> that is what we are asking the united council. we are asking them to activate
their responsibility to protect. we are asking the secretary-general's to united nations -- two activate the united nations. -- we are asking the secretary-generals to unite the nations. now my people should be given a turn to protect themselves. they have the right to protect themselves. of course, i am not saying this is not on the way. but reforming could be conducive . that means the army of myanmar
becomes a fixture. that means all of these militaries would be asked to come defend the army, not attack the people anymore. haslinda: the people of myanmar used to to stand behind the army on the issue of rohingya. has there been a sense of regret now that the situation has come back? >> we are one family, we are one nation. enough is enough. everybody will be free. the people of myanmar, including
they have no future as long as there is a military dictatorship in my country. >> the doctor has described himself as -- we are we awaiting the open of u.s. equity markets falling -- following the volatility trades. this esa 300 starting the week on a pretty solid note. south korea's market is of about .2%. we are seeing some strong gains in the philippines. this is a market that has been continually affected. let's have a look at some of the stocks we are watching. we have been seeing this route in tech shares. we have been looking at tencent.
citi says you should be buying tech shares. we are seeing some weakness coming through on billy billy. the ceo says he is not too concerned about what you say -- see to start. rishaad: coming up is the question that everybody wants the answer to, when will we travel? we will ask john about quarantines, intercountry or doors and vexing passports -- corridors and vaccine passports. this is bloomberg. ♪
juliette: we have been promising to take the lid off of pent up travel demand. hotels and airlines are bracing for a surge in business. our next guest says confidence in the vaccine rollout, discussions around covid-19 passports and quarantine announcements have triggered an increase in international travel surges.
there is a lot of pent-up demand, john. i was on a cruise to nowhere last week. that is not something i ever thought i would be saying. there are still a lot of bottlenecks. we don't even have the hong kong and singapore travel bubble yet. >> getting back to travel will be dependent on the vaccine. in asia, we were very good at getting back to travel 1.0. that was locking down the domestic economy and making sure people could travel domestically. there are people being able to travel internationally. the real holy grail here is 3.0. that is how they fully vaccinated populations. my one worry about asia is they are trailing in a lot of other
parts of the world. juliette: how will that assist a lot of these countries? the hotel operators that have been losing money for about a year now. what sort of government incentives are you working on with agoda? >> agoda has done a lot to help people travel domestic they. we participated in a very similar program in japan. we also helped filled the alternative state quarantine and also a similar program of designated quarantines in hong kong. those are very effective as we get through this transition. it brouht a -- brought alot of
domestic travel back. domestic travel is better than it was in 2019. nothing can make up for those 36 million missing visitors coming into thailand into 2 -- in 2019. no vaccine, no vacation is the policy. rishaad: many people are touting the idea of a vaccine passportbut it -- passport but with vaccine nationalism, i suppose whatever consensus could be counted as worthy of not allowing people in. >> >> i think people fear the vaccine passport more than they should. i went to places like brazil and i had to have my who yellow
book. there are a lot of technical kinks to work out to make sure there is a digital version of your vexing record that can be accepted. when i see the pent up demand, if there are four markets here in asia, south korea, australia and japan where for the first time in really more than three or four quarters, we are seeing international destinations come into the top 30. everybody wants to go to bangkok and vegas. they know they need the vexing record to do that. even though there are some official -- initial fears, people want to travel. rishaad: nomura came out and warning of significant losses after an exchange with the u.s.
client. this is because of a selloff. that is what they will be talking about and the possibility of those books. this is getting back to the whole idea of opening up. he must be seeing forward bookings. what are you looking at? are you seeing a spike of people saying that things might be normalizing? where are people booking? . >> that signifies people wanted to go on international
vacations. we have seen the destinations in asia that are popular. bangkok is a perennial favorite. again, we see this uptick in demand. the other thing we are seeing, this is worthwhile for travelers to hear, the price of hotels that really diminished in 2020 are now coming back close to where they were the whole pandemic. flights that were 30% down are now just 10% down. there are travel deals out there but they are going away fast as people anticipate getting back to normal. >> a lot of people were caught offguard with the pandemic and lost a lot of money. what assurances do you give to people booking through your platform if they can't travel on the date they are selecting. >> the first thing we did is we made sure we went to all of our hotel partners and took all of the inventory.
we made sure that virtually all of it was 100% free cancellation. now that -- rishaad: i went on your site earlier and had a look at whether i could book a hotel in hong kong. it certainly is not safe right now. what are you doing about this? >> we follow all u.s. regulations. we will take a property immediately off our site. we have done that to a couple of properties in myanmar and we are always monitoring every one of
them. meanwhile, there is not much inbound travel to myanmar but locals who still feel like they need to travel, we need to keep the properties that are sanctioned on-site and we monitor very carefully. rishaad: you're really open for the domestic market, not really the international one when it comes to myanmar. >> that is right. when the international market comes back, we are ready to go. for me, the biggest worry in asia is that to use an accounting term that we are first in, last out of the pandemic. china, followed by the pandemic. that number is close to 80% in
israel. i worry that if we don't get the vaccine quickly enough, that international travel will struggle well into 2022 or even beyond. even though the government has done a great job of getting domestic travel back and some quarantine travel, the holy ground is to get vaccinated -- vaccines -- is to get populations vaccinated and go back to normal. >> plenty more ahead, stay, this is bloomberg. ♪
sales. deliberations are in the early stage and that is a story that will continue. kazoo is finalizing details with asia that would see them go public with evaluation of $7 billion. the deal could be completed as early as late monday. juliette: breaking news the terminal, china says preferential taxes will be effective until 2030 which should bring some calm to a lot of these chipmaker stocks we have been watching a bit concerns about the glut in chipmakers as well.
up by 4.4% intra-day. this is given what we saw with the block trades going through on wall street and a lot of this says you should be buying china tech stocks. 80 hours is not fundamental to china. the preferential taxes for chip companies will be effective until 2030. let's have a look at the broader markets on this cautious front. this is following the block trades. still looking like there will be some concerns about what is happening as well with a lot of these companies that were hit hard on wall street. the philippines up there even though we have another lockdown occurring. rishaad: absolutely. the philippines has been the world's worst performing stock
biggest slump in almost 10 years after that margin call in the u.s. the margin could add up to $2 billion. >> caught in the crossfire. several big brands are defining themselves in the crosshairs of chinese nationalist. -- nationalists. >> billbilly gets off to a slow start in its debut in china. let's get a look at the final trading week of this month. we have a lot of nervousness about what will happen on wall street. you're asking if u.s. futures were lower. the asia-pacific index is being supported by some gains by the likes of china and japan.
holding just below $61 per barrell there. they were preparing for the opec-plus meeting and the ship is still stuck in the suez canal. the yuan drawing some attention as we see a fault in this rally. it is trending sideways. rishaad: going to bangkok and getting a look there, up by 1.5% . we have overseas investors cutting holdings of local stocks and bonds. we have had highs of about 2.5% for the ten year yield. a lot of these bonds sold is
down to the the japanese year and and the payment of diffidence. -- dividends. now, bloomberg news has learned that nomura is warning of a substantial loss after the trading of bill hwang's argecos captial. -- capital. this ranges from china's tech firms to u.s. media giants. who is behind the selloff? juliette: let's bring in james, he joins us from singapore. there will obviously be a lot of nervousness, we rae see-- are
seeing stocks lower. the question of the day we are asking guests is how will huge margin calls hit broad assets as we start to see this nervousness and volatility flow through? james: good morning, thank you for having me on the program. i think it is an interesting market set up. we have a confluence of factors. you have one, specific idiosyncratic issue hitting markets with the fund issues. that said, we also have an issue in which the extreme positioning of growth stocks we saw has been closed out by market action over the last couple of months. the position we saw an extensive growth stocks has largely unwound. we are creating the situation where we are getting a very specific selloff in growth risk assets because of action in the
united states. i think it is also because of chinese adr themes. we are arguing that you're looking at very interesting buying opportunities in a number of these assets, here. juliette: perhaps signaling alot for some of these stocks. what does the signal for the upside value? james: we see further upside. the environment is specific. we are arguing for outperformance of value over the year. we are penciling in 7.6% global gdp growth for the next two quarters. the incremental data points are arguing for that. you're seeing strong numbers coming out of the asian exports, taiwan, up, korea, up. march surveys are already significantly above expectations. you have this incredibly strong
backdrop of global growth we expected to continue throughout the year. all of which is positive for value. the only caveat i would offer for that is you have unwound a lot of the positions on growth. this is likely largely over at least for the time being. value outperformance. rishaad: it is interesting. you are talking about asset class bubbles. expand on that a bit. james: we wrote some pieces on this where we argued that equity markets were expensive but what we categorize as high valuation asset bubbles only list in small
categories. we would add the spac asset class to that. the average is down about 20%, spac is down about 305. we are seeing -- 30%. we are seeing severe crowding in growth. the very high risk premium that was built into rates, the market action over the last month and 1.5 months is growing out. you have taken alot of those risks out of the system already. rishaad: it does seem as though oil is at an inflection point. there are so many movuing pas -- movuing-- moving past. >> the most important statistic on that one is u.s. rig counts.
the prices from middle eastern providers has contributed to low prices. until the last couple of weeks, that did not trigger any rig counts. that is the critical supply input we will be tracking. juliette: james sullivan from jp morgan is sticking around. scott morrison has been making an announcement about a cabinet reshuffle following criticism that his response to claims of sexual assault and harassment against politicians and government staffers was not enough. christian porter will be replaced. >> you could watch on live go
and you can find the biggest entries coming up today as well as some of the events that you may have missed. let's find out what is too big to sail. we will get the first word news from vonnie quinn. vonnie: teams are trying to free the massive container ship in the suez canal. they say the next two hours will be cruicial. they managed to -- crucial, they managed to budge the ship 30 meters on tuesday. more than 450 ships are backed up at the canal now and the financial toll has grown. the sanctioned individuals are
prohibited from entering mainland china, hong kong and macau and from doing business with chinese citizens. tensions between china and western countries have flared over reports of forced labor. australia is investigating a potential cyberattack. according to local media, the email network of parliament or services are looking into what they can do about the potential breach. connections to government assistance were severed immediately as a precaution. at least 1400 people injured after a suicide bombing in indonesia in a capital -- catholic church. according to initial reports, to people on a motorbike attended to enter the churchyard but work stopped by security when the explosion happened. no group has waned response ability for the attack. global news, 24 hours a day on air and on quicktake, powered by
more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. juliette: still ahead, a recent search in covid infections in india threatening to slow its economic recovery. we will discuss that later this hour. rishaad: the fed president says rising treasury yields are a good sign of economic optimism. we have more from that is close of interview, that is next, this is bloomberg. ♪
juliette: staffers, we are hearing that mikell your cash -- michelia cash will be taking over. >> the prime minister has been very clear. peter dachshund will become part of this as well. we will leave that there. bloomberg described ridge -- subscribers can continue to watch. this will be -- there will be a force made to address women's issues. linda reynolds will be the head
of that. in the united states, we are is putting a blowout march jobs report as recovery picks up steam. they posted the worst quarter since 2016. the philadelphia fed president plane down concerns over the recent rise in longer-term yields. he spoke exclusively with bloomberg's michael mckee. >> they are seeing price pressures. but they are not doing is planning on passing much of that along to the consumer. i think the inflation story is complicated. we will see march and april drop off. they were low months because we were shutting down the economy. we will see a spike in inflation. our forecast is around 2.1% but
we don't see it running out of control. >> what about the idea of the spending side? people are reluctant to go out. what are you hearing in philadelphia? we are getting more jabs in arms and we see personal spending decline in the month of february. >> it has been choppy. we have had good months, bad months, we are seeing numbers rise in the region. until we get through this, we will see a lot of those till he in all of these measures. that makes them hard to read. for me as a policymaker, i want to hold steady and make sure we get through this and then we can normalize once we get through this. >> mortgage rates have gone up. >> we have some breaking news. this is a ship that has been blocking the suez canal.
it has successfully managed to float. they're pulling out the ship. 450 ships had been delayed. they have been waiting to go into the suez canal. this is the work they have been doing in just taking away thousands of cubic meters of sand in order to release the ship there as well. it has been a tense time there. perhaps the soil under the ship has been successfully removed and it has had a degree of success if indeed these reports are true. we will get more on that as soon we get it but let's get back to jim sullivan, he is still with us. i want to dial back here. mr. harkless is saying that bond yields are -- harkowitz is
saying that bond yields are dovetailing off. james: there are two components to question number one. the impact of rising bond yields on equity markets and equity market valuations. equally important is point number two which is the steepening of the yield curve. from a rising bond yield perspective, it is indicative of expectations of future economic growth. there has been a contention historically that rising bond yields are generally depressive of equity market valuations. our analysis shows there is very little historical evidence of that. we are not concerned about price ratios or the light off of rising bond yields. realistically, as long as they increased to somewhere around two or 2.5%, we are not concerned. the fed will not be forced to
take action until they are sustainably above that level. the market set up continue to look quite good. the steepening of the yield curve is a slightly separate conversation. it starts to indicate the degree of future growth and future inflation. that is something we are still tracking very closely. you have seen very strong goods price inflation off of some supply chain bottlenecks. inflation is something that we are watching in person. >> we wanted to get more of your thoughts on that. it is the breaking news of the day. it was always going to be a short-term impact here but in terms of the impact it has had, the supply chain bottlenecks and to your point, the inflationary concerns, just give us your thoughts on this breaking news we are getting. james: let me put it in the context of global
infrastructures and what we are seeing right now is our governments around the world is recognizing the lack of significant infrastructure investment. this goes from india to the united states. we are seeing large bills in the united states of up to $4 trillion to reinvest in infrastructure. we are seeing similar conversations in india and the state of global infrastructure needs to be a source of concern. it is a positive investment -- r.o.i. positive investment and it is something that governments need to take seriously. juliette: it has flown into a lot of supply chain issues. we are talking about growth, you have something like 7.6% gdp growth over the next two quarters. james: we do. exports, on the tech side, taiwan and korea looking really good.
the bottoms of information we are seeing from chase credit card data in markets like the united states argue for a surge in consumer spending which has been the missing part of the recent economic rebound. in the u.s., it is primarily stimulus checks. in other regions of the world, slightly different. the supply chain constraints we you think will work themselves out over the course of the medium-term. we see good inflation coming back in scope over the next of -- over the course of this couple of months. we see heightened inflation as a source of concern for markets. it is not a source of concern for us at j.p. morgan because we think it will fall in the latter part of the year but it will be something we will discuss. rishaad: two or three years ago, we were discussing the whole trade war, the start of it
between the u.s. and china and talking about this being a hegemonic struggle. where are we with that? how much of these tensions between the u.s. and china are playing out as the world becomes arguably more bifurcated? james: the only word i would challenge that you used is bifurcated because what i think we are seeing is the slow and somewhat painful birth of a new environment as we move away from the moment that occurred post cold war. as we move into that multi-polar environments, we have to recognize this is the new normal and it is not just china and the u.s.. it will be multiple countries vying for influence and vying to advance their self-interest and that is everyone from the u.s., china, japan, korea, india, the messiness of the geopolitical environment will not change over
the foreseeable future as all of these multiple countries try to work out the new rules of the game. i think this has to be taken as the new normal as we look forward in the market equity perspective. >> that was jim sullivan with us in singapore. up next, time for our morning call. stay, this is bloomberg. ♪
mate one -- they are ramping up. citi maintaining its buy call. it has moved the stock up. this has turned them into a one-stop shop. rishaad: we have from analysts that came out. nomura payment with his breathtaking statement about losses. >> they could wipe out most of numerous profits. both jefferies and city are fighting over the potential hit to shareholder returns. citi calculating that there is a risk for the dividend ratio to
only amounts to around 100 billion compared to the consensus before this warning was flagged for ¥190 billion. >> thank you very much for the markets report. we are following this breaking news that the ship that has been blocking the suez canal has been re-floated. we are hearing that they successfully did this in the suez canal, looking at some of the shipping stocks in the evergreen marine corp. up by around 2%. as we know, this has been a huge blockage, impacting a number of these over -- other ships stuck behind it. we have seen oil prices fall in london after news of the ship freed. rishaad: let me tell you what we have coming up on the program. we are looking at nomura shares
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oh, good one. move your xfinity services without breaking a sweat. xfinity makes moving easy. go online to transfer your services in about a minute. get started today. rishaad: breaking news stores, oil prices down 2%. salvage teams freeing the evergiven blocking the suez canal, one week after it went aground and arguably one of the world's most important trade areas, not clear how soon the waterway would be open to traffic and how long it will take to clear the logjam. 450 ships stuck waiting and en route to the canal the identified.
juliette: yes, and we can see big moves coming through and oil to the downside evergiven, as we get the news that has successfully re-floated in the suez canal. also watching what is happening with the block trade store that rattled wall street friday, eight and the impact to asia. in japan, nomura senior biggest fall they have seen in nine years after the company warned of a significant loss arising from transactions with a u.s. client. bloomberg news learned a could be tied to unwinding of trades. we are joined by our finance editor in sydney. adam, what to a know and what is the latest development tell us about the relationship of nomura to them? >> we know that nomura was one of the prime brokerage clients
of wang's firm, so that establishes the tide of these events unfolding friday into the weekend with these large amounts of market destabilizing block trades that happened related to wang's firm. when nomura came out with their statement in tokyo this morning, all they did was tell us there was an event that occurred friday. and they did not name and associated customer. they said that customer had created this issue, which could cost them in the region of 2 billion u.s. dollars. so there is a proviso at the bottom of their statement which says that number could change, and they are still crucially trying to calculate exactly what has happened here, and what has gone wrong on the risk management side of these traits. what we do know is, there is now an established link with nomura
being a prime brokerage klein, one of many banks operating on behalf of i say goes. rishaad: authorities and investors going to know what happened. what are the key questions it would like to have answered first? >> one of the clear things from the reporting our team has been doing around the world the last few hours on this is clearly that a lot of investors were dumbfounded at the moment. this came to them as a surprise coming to their offices in asia first thing monday morning. and being told by one of their shareholders they could potentially have at 2 billion u.s. dollar loss so they are still struggling for answers and want to understand the kind of issue that has happened here and why it went wrong so quickly, and why, if tomorrow is acting in this context of a prime broker, why they were not able
to identify this kind of quicker, if you will. there are plenty of unanswered questions and they want to find out who else within this big puzzle has been involved, the other banks that have a relationship with this fund. and, of course, the kind of timeline of events, that led to the situation we are in now. so there are a lot of phone calls going onto people internally at nomura trying to understand why this has happened. our many legacy issues at a company like numeral that have had problems with trading in the past but this one seems unique and if that 2 billion u.s. dollar number turns out to be the case that is a sizable loss. rishaad: let's have a look at
what seems to be a game of whack-a-mole, first word news with vonnie quinn in new york. vonnie: the city of brisbane deciding to enter a three-day lockdown starting late monday after for new locally committed -- locally transmitted coronavirus cases. residents will be able to leave home for food, exercise, work and medical reasons. mask wearing will be compulsory in the rest of queensland with home gatherings limited to 30 people. german chancellor angela merkel is threat u.s. cert federal control over pandemic measures a surge in infections -- threatening to assert, federal control over pandemic measures over what she calls the failure of local authorities to employ health and safety rules. 28,000 new cases were reported saturday. china has picked the uae as its middle east vaccine hub, in a deal that will see the country
produce up to 200 million shots per year. vaccines will be produced in a joint venture between sinopharm and abu dhabi-based g42, later this year, and it will make uae the first country to produce sinopharm shots outside china. china will impose antidumping tariffs on some australian wines in the last five years after range of tariffs on australian products including beef, lobster and coal. ties have been strained since canberra van huawei from building its 5g network, and increase into origins of the coronavirus pandemic. global news 24 hours a day on air and at bloomberg quicktake. powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. juliette: we are looking at oil retreating as we hear the news the massive container ship blocking the suez canal has been
freed. rent falling by 1.3%. elsewhere, solid start to the trading week for most asian equity markets. nikkei leading gains up by 1%, hong kong up .2% and we have been seeing brokers in hong kong jump ahead of earnings reports, city also sing china -- citi saying china tech looks flat. as we react to breaking news that evergiven has successfully refloated in the suez canal according to indicate evergreen evergreen marine listed in taiwan as a front runner. weakness coming through because we do not know much more at the moment and there has been a huge bottleneck with 450 ships stuck behind evergiven that flow to the supply chain and a number of good still halted. rishaad: coming up a resurgence in india coronavirus infections
it is projected to take two years to cover 75% of the population of the current rate. the recent rise in cases, the are b.i. monetary policy normalization may be pushback. how important is the immunization program for the rbis to normalize? how does it slow it down? >> thank you. vaccinations, the big difference between last year's african this year is the availability of the vaccine -- last year's outbreak and this year is the availability of the vaccine. 60 million plus doses already discharged. the initial phases they are targeting 300 million people, catching up. one thing that needs to help is the daily number of doses need to, inoculations have to go up.
at the current rate it is 2.5 million. if it goes up to 8 million or 10 million it will give a big push up. also they're going to be more vaccine alternatives and there's one rolled out. and a private hospitals also allowed to dispense these doses. most recently the expanded coverage, and now they have opened it up to 45 years, so all these things will help increase coverage. the latest outbreak needs more looking into. from a sub 20 deli case load we are looking at almost 60,000 per day, the bulk of which, almost 55% is coming from one state. rishaad: in india how much difference would it make
ultimately for interest rate normalization? >> you may be referring to the growth normalization. i think if you dial back to january or february, in the markets we were more optimistic on the recovery dates. the fact that india, given the size, has managed to get an upper had on the infection was a big plus. mobility rates were almost normal and the caseload was low. normalization going into fiscal 21 the year that starts later this week in april, where double-digit growth was anticipated. partly because of base effects, partly because joining manufacturing construction activity, also services, restaurants were allowed to operate with zero occupancy restrictions and more entertainment venues were opening up. those were headed in the right direction. this later outbreak puts up
breaks on the face of normalization so we will be watching mobility very closely and it is beginning to taper off. that has a direct implication on growth and i would think that will impact the sequential pace of growth. in the june quarter we need to remember [indiscernible] last year the same time growth had followed up double digits. there will be a natural buoyancy in the number. to what extent a buoyancy. a forecast at this point is conservative compared to the market. juliette: you are talking about some optimism and i assume that comes from foreign direct investment, what are you seeing for the overall economy from fdi? >> if you were to look the latest report it did mention overall fdi itself the last year, asia was a bright spot. in asia china and india really stood out because they were able to attract net investment last
year despite the pandemic. so i think that increase in fdi, a healthy sentiment, is to some extent one of the. efforts the government has been undertaking. as of last year. they announced self-reliant india initiative, whereby a few sectors are receiving more focus. and fiscal incentives to be able to step up. the idea is india imports many channels of goods. part of that would be replaced by domestic. now much of the focus is on farmer and electronics, particularly mobile phone manufacturing. big knaves have come up -- big names have come home. i think the push will continue and you'll see more sectors. in the chemical space also in the auto and auto components and deeper into pharmaceutical. all that will provide impetus for growth, particularly fdi growth. that has to go along with other
factors of production being more readily available. that goes back to capital needs, labor laws being more flexible, and a general ease of doing business. certainly having done well in a pandemic here is a major morale boost and gives you hope the coming years are going to get better. juliette: what about a easing in geopolitical tensions as we start to see potentially more impact from the biden administration working more closely with india? >> yes, i think the geopolitics will play in india's hand. we have seen the core formation take place and one is watching closely in terms of what the new u.s. administration means for this-china relations as well as giving additional impetus to formation as well. going back to the previous question on fdi, i think this is the time when a few countries
hoping to catch up can make headway. particularly because are dislocations elsewhere. and supply, companies were looking for efficiency, looking only at one or two sources where the supplies he's to come, and another adding reliability, efficiency to the matrix and that means you can have more countries as potential sources of production. in india as well as asean countries hoping to get a piece of the pie. rishaad: a guest earlier was suggesting india could be one of a few countries in this part of the work where much of the output lost last year obey permanent. -- lost less clear -- lost last year will be permanent, what is your take on that? >> not surprising. different countries have put up different responses to the pandemic when it hit last year. in india's case it one for a
complete nationwide shutdown for three months. that was gradually reopened over the next seven months. that kind of sactown -- that kind of shutdown has acute impact on services as well as manufacturing and construction some can be made up when you reopen the economy but some is permanent loss, because you're not going to go back to the move you did not watch or eat the meal you did not the past three months. so that coupled with labor markets where you've seen the formal economy and formal sector labor do well but the informal part of the sector in terms of companies and firms as well as labor taking, not, i think that does not show in official numbers yet and these factors lend to the belief there is some amount of permanent output loss that may happen but we do hope given a second wave is under control that will help the case
shaped recovery one speaks of in this context play catch up. -- k-shaped recovery play catch up. thanks to the second wave the number of cases accelerating more, accompanied by a higher r0 production. juliette: thank you for joining us. coming up, the corporate fallout from the tussle between the west and china in xinjiang is growing with stores being forced to shut in some parts of the mainland, details next. this is bloomberg. ♪ .
♪ juliette: you are watching "bloomberg markets: asia" and we are seeing the ms ee index turning higher, up by 1.5% adding to friday's gains. rishaad: having a look at the tussle over china's alleged human rights abuses in xinjiang. accusations are escalating and the war of words getting worse. beijing hitting back with sanctions on the u.s. and canada with coordinated moves from washington and its allies last week. corporate fallout has spread. let's get to tom mackenzie in
beijing. what he thinks stand on this -- where do things stand on this tit-for-tat? tom: we saw beijing round out a retaliatory response on a coordination action from the u.s., u.k., ei canada early last week. after that china responded and hit european officials and entities with sanctions. an u.k. officials as well. they rounded out of the weekend targeting one canadian lawmaker, a parliamentary committee and canada, at a religious rights group linked to u.s. lawmakers. that is the response from china. to remind viewers this comes down to an argument, heated, from the western powers. the west saying there are gross human rights abuses taking place in xinjiang, labor rights abuses and the u.s. calls it genocide. china says that is not true and this is disinformation and
responded with counter sanctions. it is a reminder in terms of the relationships they are heading for a downward spiral. japan under pressure, prime minister suga to enact sanctions. they rarely enact economic pain on china, their largest trading partner but there is pressure building on japan ahead of the g7. juliette: looking at stock tickers of apparel makers. telus the extent of the corporate fallout? tom: it continues. h&m have seen a number of stores on the mainland close. if you pull up a map on your smartphone you cannot find h&m stores and they have been taken off. in terms of alibaba, you cannot find h&m goods. nike, uniqlo, zara, also
because these companies have said they are concerned about they were or labor rights in xinjiang. or they said specifically we will not source products from xinjiang. so you have a backlash on social media now affecting some of these companies. front and center is h&m. this is a reminder of the difficulty the companies have to walk between pressures from the west to account for their supply chains and pressures here not to bend to those concerns. rishaad: another thing to raise hackles in washington, china and around linking a long-term strategic -- iran linking a 25 year strategic partnership. tom: it involves chinese commitments to invest in the energy sector in iran, oil, gas and petrochemicals, and to pledge to continue to buy iranian oil.
currently they are buying one million barrels per day of a rainy in crude. -- iranian crude that will likely increase on the back of the partnership. iran says it will support china's belt and road initiative. this deal has been an orc since 2016 but it is a reminder beijing is thumbing its nose at the u.s. which wants to have economic leverage over irank, as it looks to reengage talks around the nuclear program. arguably this deal produces that economic leverage. juliette: bloomberg's tom mackenzie in beijing. a quick check of the latest business flash headlines. archegos -- numerous shares sliding the most in nine years after they revealed they may have incurred significant losses tied to the archegos selloff next week, which could amount to $2 billion, and the impact it could have a financial results.
the japanese brokerage also canceled plans to sell dollar denominated bond. china's oil refiner sinopec posted a profit -- a five-year profit following a rebound in the second half of 2020, a slump of 42% from there before. sinopec managed to scrape for your profit on the back of gains in the third and fourth quarter. nobody took the top spot at the u.s. box office, generating $6.7 million in ticket sales benefiting from the reopening of cinemas in los angeles and new york, boosting an industry really from the pandemic with half the countries did are still closed. the international box office also outperformed. godzilla versus con netting $122 billion in foreign ticket sales. alliance said to study feasibility of a counter offer after to maeda $23 billion takeover bid for hartford
financial services group. allianz sees a lack of sinners sees with hartford. -- sent lack of synergy with hartford. ajax 1 spac would see a go public with the valuation of $7 billion, according to sky news that deal could be completed monday. because he was expected to raise 800 million dollars to a private investment in public equity. -- kazoo expected to raise $800 million through a private investment in public equity. london measured by a percent of residents given one dose followed by new york beating asian hubs in singapore, shanghai and hong kong. hong kong road to immunity the road to immunity 5.3%. rishaad: yes looking at this but nothing versus new york. at one level 30.8% of people having one dose, but the numbers
which have been completed are much higher, in your where new york city is topping london by fully inoculating more people. 11% of its population and in london only 2.3% of residents have had their total vaccinations done, have been double dosed. u.s. cities likely to be more successful here as well, as we have the johnson & johnson single-dose vaccine started to be administered as well. so that is where we are in this race between the financial centers, hong kong just 5.3% and singapore approaching 13%. with that in mind let's have a look at what is going on with the oil price, and other asset classes. we look at the evergiven ship which has now been refloated, coming from it take. -- inch tape. brent down and do be shiite down
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