tv Bloomberg Markets Asia Bloomberg March 31, 2021 10:00pm-11:00pm EDT
juliette: and the fec opens an investigation into the archegos boss over leveraged trades that have shaken wall street and driven huge losses to big banks. rishaad: start of the market action. we've got the nikkei leading the charge as the u.s. president announces plans to build back better. edging up, shares in south korea and australia moving up. hang seng nearly 8/10 of 1%. shanghai in the green. looking at 10 year yields, we've also got china manufacturing coming. a little bit weaker than estimated, but still showing positivity. this is the dollar index, pre-much unchanged. -- pretty much unchanged. we are seeing moves with the oil price in focus as we get that
opec-plus meeting on the way. as the pandemic does draw closer with every shot in the arm quite literally, we have traders in the last quarter girding themselves for supercharged growth and higher inflation. that is why we have seen the yield picture moved to the upside. gold price up 2/10 of 1%. the first three months showed the worst start to the year since 1982 for the price of gold, even though it is up 2/10 of 1%. we have trading still taking place in the united states. that's where we are with markets. juliette: president biden has revealed his massive infrastructure plan. he is counting on business to pay for the $2.25 trillion deal. his proposal calls for spending on transportation, manufacturing, research and development and high-speed broadband over eight years. he wants to raise the corporate
income tax. he would also impose a minimum tax of 21% on corporate attorney -- global corporate earnings. >> we will raise the corporate tax. it was 35%, which was too high. we agreed years ago it should go down to 28%, but they reduced it to 21%. we will raise him back -- it back to 28%. no one should complain about that. juliette: let's discuss the implications with james thom. great to have you with us. rish was talking about a shot in the arm in terms of vaccines, but this infrastructure plan a shot in the arm for investor sentiment. james: we have to see if it makes it through congress, and there are significant hurdles around that, particularly on the tax point just raised. but overall, yes.
anything that brings the u.s. economy back to a place of growth will be positive for global markets, asia included. juliette: we are kicking the new quarter off as well. this is going to be a pivotal one, particularly as we see the vaccine rollout and the differential you are seeing globally. question of the day we are asking our guests, where are the opportunities this quarter? james: if you look on a quarterly view, then there is certainly a rotation trade happening, driven by reopening of economies. asia are deeply is further ahead of the rest of the world on that -- arguably is further ahead of the rest of the world on that. sectors like banks, consumer retail and so forth are benefiting from this, commodities as well.
i suspect, assuming the covid numbers remain under control, which is an assumption, because we are seeing numbers pickup quite substantially -- but assuming that remains broadly under control, those are the sectors we will see do well over the next three months or so. rishaad: if we are getting disappointment with earnings, we will see some of the froth come off this market. earnings right now are surely unsupportive. james: yes, they are. we are pretty positive on the outlook for earnings. we are seeing the market upgrade consensus estimates from 25% to closer to 30% year on year growth for the full year 2021. i think the outlook is pretty bright. there is obviously some risk to that.
even if it comes off a little bit, we are talking about substantial earnings growth. positive so far. when we look at the current run rates on earnings, it has been quite encouraging, even in the fourth quarter reporting season. based on our conversations with corporates, the mood has changed. their optimism is coming back and sentiment is turning much more positive. we are seeing that result in major capx programs being restarted, all of which will be positive for long-term growth. rishaad: as your chairman says, we are in for the long-haul. if you are, you change strategy incrementally. how are you moving toward the themes of the low carbon economy and a green revolution? james: our approach remains unchanged.
we continue to focus on high-quality companies. we think those will outperform up through the long-term. you are right, there are some new and interesting fanatics in the region -- thematics in the region. the green economy is one of those. we are seeing huge changes taking place, in china in particular, but across the region more broadly as well, with substantial b directed to this -- being directed to this. that is creating investment opportunities. we are participating in some of those. it is important to do your homework on the individual companies, but china has a number of global leaders in the renewable energy space which we think will offer longer-term returns. juliette: one of your picks in china. what about the construction boom in india?
you are saying we can't ignore indian. james: no, india is always a bit of a rule the coaster from a -- of a roller coaster from a markets standpoint. they are beginning to battle another wave of covid. taking a slightly longer term view, india continues to have many long-term structural growth drivers that investors like us position around. construction is one. urbanization is still alive and well in india and will be for the next decade or more. companies that are providing services into that sector, or materials like cement, are well-positioned. we own several of those. despite the covid concerns, we are seeing a revival in capx and
infrastructure spending in india, driven by, to a large extent, the budget in february. we are seeing a cyclical tailwind to that story. rishaad: james thom from aberdeen investments. good news on the immunization front. let's get the story and the rest of the first word news from vonnie quinn. vonnie: pfizer says its covid-19 vaccine is 100% effective in children aged 12 to 15 and is seeking to add adolescents to fda authorization. the results could allow u.s. teens and preteens to get shots before the next school year. it is overly approved in those aged 16 and older. pfizer and its partner biontech plan to submit the data to their american and european regulators as soon as possible. the french president imposing a four week nationwide lockdown
saturday in an attempt to contain a surge in covid-19 infections he calls more contagious and deadlier. the measures include a three-week nationwide school closure and a month-long domestic travel ban. the measures, as cases in other parts of europe continue to spike. the biden administration raised concerns about the policy tools china is using to spur its economy. according to a trade representative, beijing's support for domestic industries is resulting in determination against foreign companies. it says there is likely to be long-lasting damage to u.s. interests. global news 24 hours a day on air and on quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm vonnie quinn. this is bloomberg. juliette: still ahead on "bloomberg markets: asia," we hear from the dallas fed president about how
infrastructure spending will boost u.s. growth. plus, our exclusive with the ecb president christine lagarde. rishaad: and the latest on the block trade blowout. the s&p opening up a per the minari investigation -- up a preliminary investigation. deutsche bank manages to avoid a loss. we have details on that next. this is bloomberg. ♪
>> among the highest return investments in terms of spurring private investment. we know public investments in airports return several dollars in private investments. investments in r&d provide the backbone off which private investment flows. these are the investments that can spur the kind of private investment we need. rishaad: the dallas fed president said some inflation will be a likely trade-off for the biden infrastructure spend. but what about long-term gdp? robert spoke to bloomberg. robert: the important thing i look at on infrastructure -- we've had a lot of fiscal spending, which has been necessary to emerge from the pandemic, but a lot of that spending will fund current consumption. so the impact that has creates a bump in gdp, but over time, that
bump wears off. the desirable thing for me in terms of infrastructure spending, it's a long-term investment. it's an investment you make today or over the years,a nd it -- years, and it should help in the future create higher potential gdp growth, higher sustainable growth, better productivity. i would differentiate infrastructure spending from other fiscal spending. it is clear we need more wi-fi, widespread wi-fi in this country, and other infrastructure spending to make us more productive and raise sustainable gdp growth in the future. i think that is a positive thing. >> the government has already spent over $5 trillion fighting the pandemic. you expect that to lead to transitory inflation. the fed things we will get to 3.5% unemployment in a few years anyway. remember joe biden is saying
these should be good union jobs which should pay more, does that make the danger of lasting inflation greater? robert: well, it is clearly going to demand more workers. we already knew the cyclical forces of inflation from low unemployment in the months and years ahead, that will spur the cyclical parts of inflation. this will do that even more. i think it's an investment worth making, but it will have that effect. we have to see how those cyclical forces are outweighed by technology-enabled disruption. those forces which are also strengthening, we will have to see how that shakes out. i have said several times about this inflation debate -- on the one hand, you will see inflation moderate through 2021 into
2023. but i also think it is wise as a central banker to have a good dose of humility and an openness to learning as this all unfolds. a lot of what is going on now is unprecedented. the smartest thing i can do is be humble and open to learning and adjust my views as this unfolds. michael: what do your experts say the impact be of a green energy program on your district as part of the oil and gas industry? robert: a lot of what is going on with renewables and the green energy program has always been -- has already been internalized significantly in my district and in the energy business. we are seeing energy companies across the board, fossil fuel companies, planning to spend billions of dollars on how to reduce their greenhouse gas
emissions, sequestration, how they deal with water, sand, other things. also a substantial amount of capital going into battery storage and other renewable r&d. the issue will be, as capital flows heavily into renewables, it is very difficult to attract capital to fossil fuels, yet, even with aggressive transition, our analysis at the dallas fed is we will be dependent on a healthy fossil fuel industry likely for the next two or three decades. rishaad: the dallas fed president, robert kaplan. let's get the latest with the markets and the followed from the implosion of -- the fallout from the implosion of archegos capital. the sec has a massive probe. what have we learned that is actually new? su: bloomberg has learned the
sec begin a formal civil investigation into bill in the last few days. a person close to the matter is telling us the investigation them a while still in the early stages, is being led by the asset management group of the sec's enforcement division. we also know the sec routinely looks into or reveals situations where there has been a massive hedge fund blowup, and the inquiry might not necessarily lead to misconduct. when hwang's archegos capital -- banks unwound positions in excess of $20 billion, goldman, credit suisse among them. the sec earlier confirmed to bloomberg they previously looked into hawng in -- hwang in 2012.
his former hedge fund was accused of trading on illegal tips and pled guilty and paid more than $60 million in penalties. juliette: we are continuing to hear more about the losses incurred by the banks and brokers involved. we have mitsubishi usj stating its losses were lower than initially thought. su: the securities unit of japan's largest bank says it will post a 270 million loss, smaller than the 300 million they originally estimated. in terms of deutsche bank, which had been speculated to have avoided losses, we now know they managed to dodge a $4 billion loss by very quickly selling off a major position in a private deal on friday. a person close to the matter says one of europe's largest headphones -- largest hedge funds was involved in the deal.
they very quickly unloaded the position. so deutsche bank joins goldman, wells fargo in avoiding material losses. meanwhile, credit suisse, we understand, is estimated to have had exposure of about $3 billion to $4 billion. nomura has warned investors their loss will be about $2 billion. juliette: bloomberg's su keenan in new york. hong kong stocks are rising on the first day of the new year trading month and quarter. we have about 50 listed companies in hong kong suspended from trade. we understand this is due to the fact they have missed their earnings deadline of march 31, the last day to report annual results for hong kong listed companies. it is quite a number of companies that have not met this deadline. this could suggest accounting practices have become more rigorous.
one analyst told bloomberg it has surprised him companies delayed most of their earnings. last year we had the covid impact reason for many missing the deadline. up to 50 hong kong listed companies being suspended from trade after missing the earnings deadline. plenty more ahead. this is bloomberg. ♪
juliette: let's get you caught up on the latest business headlines. micron has given an upbeat forecast for earnings thanks to strong demand for semi conductors. the u.s. maker of memory chips expect revenue of $7.1 billion. it also expects profit of $1.62 per share. demand for memory chips has been boosted by devices needed to
work and study from home. india's unicorn is said to be going public by a u.s. team that could offer as much as $1 billion in value. the mobile advertising services business is backed by softbank, which owns about 40% of the company. jp morgan, goldman sachs and citigroup are said to be working on the ipo. chinese regulators have approved restructuring of chemchina after years of speculation about a merger. the firms will become wholly-owned subsidiaries of a new holding company. sinochem says the move will aid the development of china's chemical industry. both companies were added to the pentagon's blacklists for alleged linked to the chinese military. rishaad: from china to japan, where we are seeing election of the first 10 year notes. the boj announced changes to its policies. tell us about this.
david: it's the first one since early march, when we had quite a low bid to cover ratio. you are using that measure to look at demand, lowest in about five or six years. some changes in the environment since then. lesser of an increase in yields. i think concerns are on the bond markets compared to the last time a month ago. yesterday, after the competition, the boj -- the complication, the boj says it will purchase less bonds. you are looking at it on your screen. jp morgan putting everything together. they are saying to forget the -- don't forget the boj planes to keep the yield curve low and stable. it is probably on the longer end that that you will see more steepening, gradual is what they say. the auction should be out in
about 60 minutes from now. rishaad: bank of japan getting -- giving more wiggle room. a quick look at markets as we head to the japanese lunch break. traders in tokyo. this is a look at some of the companies making headlines. mitsubishi ufj has increased its full-year net income forecast. a $270 million loss is less than what we anticipated with regards to archegos. toshiba on the way up, nearly 5.5%. was up about 9% at one stage. it has a significant stake in holdings, one at the moment under a bid from micron. 9.9% up. it is the biggest rally we have
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re-think of counterproductive policy and chinese officials appear to be prioritizing a show of strength over global public opinion. thanks for joining us. this is it, isn't it? a lot of noise being made in beijing is not really for global consumption, is it? it is down to really domestic -- actually, domestic popularity, if you will. >> that is absolutely right. we are hearing so regularly now about this kind of fiery rhetoric. china really doubling down on criticism and essentially threatening companies, saying they will have to use these companies or products coming from the region to retain access into the market. this is useful for domestic public support and stirs up
nationalism in a way that the party enjoys, but we have seen public opinion around the world really souring toward china. rishaad: you said in essence we have a situation leaving western corporate in an invidious position, doesn't it? >> is it's really such a challenge. over the last two decades, companies have been vying for access into china's lucrative market, the largest consumer market in the world, and at the same time, they have to comply with local standards to make that happen. that balancing act is getting close to impossible now has both public and government in the united states, australia, and elsewhere expect compliance with company -- countries of origin, but china is also expecting compliance of their loss.
i think it is happening faster than anyone could have expected. rishaad: it does seem to be that, and the meeting in anchorage only seems to highlight what you have said, that the united states is no longer in a position of strength, as it were. do we have some sort of cognitive dissonance, as it were? >> i think that is a great way to think about it. there is a significant gap in perception. the united states is still the most powerful country in the wilderness putting a lot of effort into constraining china's ambition, but china believes the united states is in a terminal decline. it is probably getting those messages throughout the chinese
public. as a result, we see a widening gap increasing the trust, and it's hard because good policy outcomes can emerge from this when the -- because no good policy outcomes can emerge from this when the two largest economies in the wood cannot ci to i. haslinda: what does this mean in terms of implications to taiwan? >> this is where things start to become very precarious. china has increased its aggression towards taiwan over the last six to 12 months, particularly in response to the lens ideal. as part of that, but also continuing from the trump administration, we have seen president ryden and his colleagues boost support for taiwan in the last few months. we have seen new agreements signed, high-level visits, and in some ways, the status quo is
shifting, and i think there is a high risk of some kind of escalation or even accident that spirals out of control. at the same time, china is not going to invade taiwan overnight. those reports are quite significantly overblown. as for what can be done at the moment, i think is to try to ensure that taiwan is capable of defending itself and other countries are demonstrating their commitment to defending taiwan, so the deterrence we have had for the last four decades in the region continues. haslinda: how do you feel about the rapid change in hong kong as beijing doubles down here, too? >> we are seeing beijing around the world is very impervious to the criticism it has come under. hong kong is an example of that where there has been quite significant condemnation from the united states, australia, and many other partners as the
way in which the imperfect democracy in hong kong has been slowly strangled. recent electoral changes are a demonstration of this at a step towards having absolutely no viable opposition in hong kong. this is devastating from the perspective of democracies but also quite problematic in terms of good governance, where is very clear that only people who toe a very particular party line will be in positions of power. haslinda: can you tell us a little more about public opinion towards china and australia where you are, particularly given what we saw last year with australia taking its journalists out of china? >> it has been a really interesting development in australia. the australian public has generally been quite positive toward china and in some ways have been outliers when compared to the united states, the united kingdom, canada. until two years ago, the vast majority of australians felt quite positively toward
australia, but as the bilateral relationship has significantly deteriorated and china has adopted a much more aggressive posture toward australia, we have really seen that plummet. only 20% of us trillions say they trust china. the same number have confidence in xi jinping. that number has more than halved in just two years. rishaad: the cold war was about capitalism versus communism at its most base level. the thing is, this particular sort of battle is about those ideologies. we have those that say china has got ever closer to russia and likewise, where is the united states and its allies are also coalescing. is this the start of a new cold war? >> this is the question everybody wants an answer to. i don't know if it is a new cold war, but i would say we are seeing a really significant
theme of competition between systems, and it is not the same kind of systems as during the cold war, but what we can see now is literal democracy stacking up on one side with a few notable exceptions, i think it is important to say, but china now using its authoritarian kind of success story as it would describe it, and marketing that to other countries and saying, we have an alternative to present to you. liberal democracy is not the only way to economic prosperity, and we can show you that, and to be honest, a lot of countries are interested in what china has to offer in a sense. it is not so much about china exporting its system, but really, other countries importing it. rishaad: thank you. we have been following reports that hong kong authority's have unveiled proposals that would allow company directors to obscure their identities,
potentially undermining the city as a transparent financial hub. we discuss this with a research director for hong kong and the asian corporate governance association. haslinda: beijing increased control over the electoral process in hong kong. our chief north asia correspondent spoke to the hong kong deputy commissioner about the changes. >> risks are national security are real, especially given this hostile national environment we find ourselves in, especially because there are countries on earth whose basic dna is aggressive. >> you are alluding to the united states? >> yes, i'm talking about the united states, and i think it is
also clearly stated what they intend -- to suppress the development of china, and it is an open secret. >> so hong kong has been the pond in your estimation, has let us down this road to where we are now where we have a national security law, the electoral reform, perhaps more exerted policies from beijing? >> i think so because this is in the geopolitical interest of america to do that, and on the ground, i certainly see compatible evidence of such action. i'm not trying to necessarily pass judgment or moral judgment on this because how a country determines to further strategic interest is that country's prerogative. i'm just saying we are as entitled as these countries to protect our interest. >> what does that mean for the
security blanket over hong kong? more surveillance? more police on the streets? more review of social media? i'm not saying it is a police state -- we are nowhere near there, but that is the international perception. >> that perception is wrong. our concern has always been livelihood issues -- if you are safe, if you feel safe going out at night, if you feel safe allowing your daughter -- teenage daughter to go home by herself. these are not political issues. we are entitled to security. we are entitled to stability because that is the only way that society can function, and i think the events of 2019 have shown you when stability and security breaks down, society
becomes totally dysfunctional. we were on the brink of collapse in many senses of the word. we try to do our best, and if it happens again, we will do that again. >> how are you trying to repair the trump deficit that has built up between the populace and the hong kong police? used to be referred to as asia's finest. i'm not saying it is not anymore, but there is tension in society -- >> you used the word populist. i have to disagree. this is what the propaganda would have people believe -- >> some in society. >> i feel compelled to point this out because that is how propaganda works. >> fair enough. i'm not disagreeing with you. there is a trust deficit as a
haslinda: we are seeing some gains coming through in asian equity markets to kickstart the new month and quarter as we have stimulus plans boosting indexes globally. we are seeing hong kong stocks higher by .8%, even though about 50 companies have been suspended from trade for failing to meet the deadlines for accounting. china's market also looking fairly strong. south korea .6%. we have seen homebuying accelerate as the property market booms. asian chipmakers have been junking -- jumping on this deal report. toshiba has been rising significantly in japan. samsung also higher. property companies also under pressure.
in australia, anz has named alexis george as ceo. rishaad: we have breaking news coming. hong kong has handed down a verdict on activists. jimmy lie being found guilty -- jimmy lai being found guilty. it's all about the national security law and the conspiracy to collude with foreign forces. the maximum penalty could be life imprisonment. this is according to the national security law here as well. just one line, martin lee, jimmy lai guilty over those 2019 protests. that's a story we will get more details on as the morning progresses. let's have a look at first word
news with vonnie quinn. vonnie: thank you. we start in the u.s. where president joe biden has resumed his massive infrastructure plan and is counting on business to pay for the 2.25 trillion dollar deal. his goals support transportation, manufacturing, research development, and high-speed. he would impose a minimum tax of 21% on global corporate earnings . the wto has raised its projections for the year forecasting and 8% rise in global trade. that will be the biggest improvement since 2010. the director general says the projection would be tied to virus disruption, warning that new waves of infections could undermine any recovery. she also criticized vaccine nationalism, saying slower rollouts could result in not
meeting forecast. >> no longer can we afford for poorer countries to stand in the queue working for vaccine. 70% of vaccine doses today have been administered by 10 countries. the inequity of access is glaring. vonnie: myanmar's ousted parliament is planning to set up a national unity government in defiance of the military junta. the new government will be a coalition of all federal democratic forces under a collected leadership with ethnic minority groups playing a key role. the military junta has declared the committee to be unlawful. global news 24 hours a day on air and on bloomberg wicktake powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. rishaad: just want to get back to the story about martin lee and jimmy lai being found guilty. it was not about the national
security law but about organizing and participating in an unauthorized assembly, regarding the protests which took place in august 2019, and the penalty could be five years. just correcting myself. my apologies. we have the ecb president saying her footing remains firm on long-term economic growth, even though vaccine rollout has fallen shy of forecast thus far. she spoke with francine lacqua about what the eu can do to aid recovery. >> we have an economic situation overall which in this part of the world, europe, is really marred by uncertainty, and in that general macroeconomic situation that is marred by uncertainty, what monetary policy has to do and what the ecb has to do is provide as much certainty as possible, and this is really the aim of the most recent monetary policy decisions we have taken.
clearly in the scope of our mandate, which is price stability, but i think that in the very exceptional circumstances that we are encountering, providing a degree of certainty is significant at the moment. >> given the lockdowns and what is going on with vaccines, has the balance actually shifted since the last policy meeting? >> our balance of risk is still pointed to the downside in the short term because we are seeing a degree of uncertainty. we are seeing renewed lockdowns. we are seeing a vaccination rollout that is short of what we had expected, but it is much more balanced in the medium-term, and we expect the vaccination rollout to proceed. we expect sufficient herd
immunity to be reached at a point in time in the future, and that leads us to have rebalance a bit our outlook in the medium-term. still downward in the short term and more balanced in the medium-term. >> do you think you will be able to scale back some of the purchase program in june given what you just said about the economy and the fact that in the medium-term, it could get better? >> i think my definition of the medium-term is a bit different from the one you are mentioning. medium-term for us is a couple of years. it actually fits with the help for recovery -- in other words, the pre-covid-19 situation, which we estimate at probably mid 2022. what we have decided most recently is to significantly increase our pace of purchase, and this is a decision we have made in view of the circumstances and with a view to
preserving favorable financing conditions. we will reassess in due course on a quarterly basis and in between as well, of course, to make sure that our monetary policy is in line with over your -- with our overall price objective, but also with the aim that we have of presenting favorable financing conditions, which, as i said, leads to more certainty, improves the confidence, hopefully induces consumers to consume and investors to invest. this is what we are beginning to see, actually. haslinda: that was ecb president christine lagarde speaking exclusively with bloomberg. coming up, dealmaking climbing to a record 1.1 trillion dollars, but investment banks are taking steps to make sure
mental health, etc., all emanate from there. >> you have to see a breath of evolution as we move into this new normal. >> you've got to come up with a new operating model. that model will have some cultural changes. it will have some norms that are new. >> maybe 80% of people are going to come back to work in a hybrid way. >> we are just about to enter what i'm going to call the messy middleware some people will be in the office and some people will not. >> we think we will be able to open all our doors in any way. >> we thought 20/20 was complicated, and it was in many ways. what we needed to do was more clear. 2021 is far more complicated because how we do things, at what pace, and what impact small, individual decisions will have we will only know by experiencing it. haslinda: that work -- that was some of the speakers at a bloomberg event discussing what the future of work will look
like. an investment bank is giving young investment bankers a $10,000 allowance for 2021 while also encouraging workers to take time for themselves on friday nights into saturday at noon. the move comes as we are starting to see a lot more mental health rochus from a number of wall street banks. goldman sachs and the like have promised to do more to keep younger staff out of the office on saturdays. they complain about the long hours in the toll on mental health. >> there are absolutely young and alyssa goldman sachs saying this was off the back of working 110-hour-long weeks and essentially getting about four hours' sleep every night. that and finding themselves in the office on friday night. this also comes at a time where workloads have certainly been increased because dealmaking has been elevated. jeffries as well adding young talent or planning to add young talent as well.
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