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tv   Bloomberg Surveillance  Bloomberg  April 9, 2021 6:00am-7:00am EDT

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to be determined, but the debate has changed and that matters. >> there are forces at work that are slowing down the recovery of the economy. >> as the market rallies, we have started to see volatility climb again. that's typically not a great time. >> there's a catch-up happening in correcting for the covid drop. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. >> good morning, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance." alongside tom keene, i am jonathan ferro. lisa back with us on monday. it's been six months of relative outperformance for small caps, for value overgrowth, small overlarge. that has flipped big-time. tom: right the year end review about three times as we launch into april. important to see what the faang distribution is doing. reaffirms $150 price target on
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apple. maybe that's just a microcosm of this understanding in a boom economy. these will be revenue generators . jonathan: a move on the nasdaq 100, similar move on the apple stock. we have routing on anticipation and the cyclicals and small caps in anticipation of better economic data. it's interesting to see that rally stalled. interesting to see what has happened in the treasury market as well. tom: i wouldn't call it static. i like your word stability. in cross assets, we have seen a very stable week. with the navelgazing of the world bank, the imf, are important conversation with the fed today, all of this is the backdrop of a boom economy which is being repriced in one area, stocks. jonathan: s&p 500 futures now up 4. the nasdaq 100 down at the
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moment. the bond market repricing yields higher. still in and around 1.65, 1.6638. take a close look at europe. euro coming in at about 0.2%. euro-sterling in the last couple of days, could smell the scent of the turn in the vaccination rollout, and germany specifically. those numbers getting better and better coming off the back of easter. an improvement in europe. we are starting to see it. tom: major shout out to george sarah bellows at deutsche bank who was really out front on saying look, it's grim. mr. macron, lockdown italy. it is getting better. francine: i am going to talk about -- jonathan: i am going to talk about the markets a little bit later. headlining this morning at 8:00 a.m. eastern time, tom keene, we catch up the federal reserve
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vice chair, richard clarida. looking forward to this conversation on a really interesting, not just a year ahead, not just the cycle, we are going to talk about the next couple of weeks. we get that first cpi print next tuesday to show inflation picking up. tom: what's important is the academic from columbia is the lead axe on monetary theory, monetary policy. he's somebody jerome powell has to theoretically listen to. they are really trying to get out after-the-fact. they need to see the final evidence before the act. how do you do that without market reaction? jonathan: do we play the transitory drinking get in -- drinking game in two hours? tom: we can do the transitory drinking game with anthony crescenzi. jonathan: we do that now. great to catch up. you have called it the great inflation had fake of the next couple of months.
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can you walk us through it? anthony: the inflation rate because of a decline in prices that were seen last year after covid hit, that decline will be met by year to yield gain. not the pce that the fed targets. of 2.2% or so. then, we see by year end moving down. it will climb we think by the end of 2022 to 2.2 2.2% cpi at the end of next year probably means a pce of something less than 2%. the fed has said it will not raise its policy rate until the inflation rate has been at 2% for about a year and shows signs of accelerating above 2% for some time. the market now looking at eurodollar futures for december
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22, their priced -- they are priced today for the fed to raise its policy rate by a full quarter-point my next year. it is highly improbable. more likely that the first rate hike occurs somewhere at the end of 2023. some value to be harvested at the front end of the yield curve for the bet that the market is making on the fed moving early. jonathan: sounds like you are in line with the federal reserve and their outlook. the next couple of months will be a head fake. do you think they need to define progress towards their goals? is that necessary? anthony: it is but the markets will define it for themselves. but the type of improvement that's a little more vague and will be more difficult to concern -- discern, this idea of a broad and inclusive gain in employment. it has stated that the pursuit
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of maximum employment is a broad and inclusive go. this likely means a jobless rate of under 4%. keep in mind, even after last week's strong jobs report, there still remains about 8 million people unemployed relative to pre-covid. there's a long way to go on that front. to define broad and inclusive, it means more women in the workforce, more minorities, etc., etc. that will take some time. this is why that december 2022 view is wrongheaded. tom: i was just reading last night. i was going through the 1200 pages of the tome. you talk about don't fight the fed, follow it. how do we follow a fed if the fed is as ex post as a has-been since chesley martin. that's the strategic bond investor, folks. look for that film. you will see that memorial day,
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2024. tony, how do we react to a fed that is waiting and waiting and waiting? anthony: here's how to think about it. there are three components of a bonds yield, expected short rates, expected inflation and the term premium. in the past, one might say by the fed -- by following the fed, you would say the fed is keeping the funds rate low, so should in all euros below? the answer is right now is no, because the fact the fed is keeping the short rate low means the two other components are free to go. in other words, inflation expectations might rise faster, and so might the temperament. tom: i'm sorry. i think this is so important. the heart of the matter is for
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listeners and ears is out somewhere in 2023 or 2022, a fed waiting and waiting and waiting in the market is going to react to it. would do you anticipate -- what do you anticipate? anthony: there will be numerous tests of the fed that the fed will have to reply to overtime. you have to ask richard clarida do if he still believes in this idea of a new neutral, the new neutral thesis. it means the fed thinks the neutral policy rate is slower today than it used to be. in the past, it might have been call it 3% or so or even 4%. today, it's probably in the low 2's. we want to know if the fed still believes that. the test will come frequently. when the inflation rate does, if it ever does get back to the level of the fed wants, the markets will test the fed to see if it will react to it, because the markets will be worried about inflation. that's where those other two
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components will require a different sort of policeman on the inflation beat. the bond vigilante my come back, as we have seen recently. in the end, the inflation rate probably will not rise materially. that's our belief. nor will the federal funds rate, college somewhere in the 2's most likely but that test is yet to come. jonathan: nothing about this pandemic has changed the trajectory of the economy going into the pandemic? in the next couple of years, we will be back to normal? anthony: in the u.s., we are expecting about 7% growth next year, 3% next year and the growth will be the best in 40 years. there are aspects of growth in this coming decade, you could say this transformation underway, it will be more digital, more inclusive and more green. it will be a very different sort of economy. you see this benefiting, for example, the semi conductor industry. semi conductors will be a
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component of the green economy. think of a charging station for electric vehicle requires semi conductors. cars these days require more semi conductors. there will be a transformation. it will be more focused on the true drivers of growth, investments on people and in things, capital. those are the major drivers along with total productivity. there is a major transformation underway that could mean faster growth. we think it may mean about a gain in gdp this decade relative to last simply because we are investing in people and things. whether that leads to meaningfully more inflation, we would doubt it right now. jonathan: there to see you, as our ways. anthony crescenzi there. at the heart of the conversation was a shift from a forecaster driven fed to an outcome driven fed. is that a commitment to being -- commitment after being decade --
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commitment to being too late? tom: i would suggest it is not later but the nuance of later lagging behind a little bit more. are they going to react when they see data? are they going to react immediately when they see data? are they going to wait? this clearly is a fed that wants to ascend out. listen to you. jonathan: did you hear the chairman yesterday? a string of the payrolls report that we saw last friday. we need to see a string of them. tom: that's called a moving average, three month moving average. at is called a moving average. you got to see some data. cut him some slack on data. given the oddity of where we are, they just want to wait and wait and wait, and that's a bet in the market right now. jonathan: we will catch up with richard clarida, federal reserve vice chairman, later this
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morning on this program. good morning to you all. alongside tom keene, i am jonathan ferro. lisa back on monday. equity market looks like this. all-time highs on the s&p 500 pushing 4100 on the s&p. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> most coronavirus vaccines are going to the wealthiest countries. 40% of the covid vaccines administered globally have gone to people in 27 wealthy nations that represent 11% of the population, according to the bloomberg vaccine tracker. countries making up the least wealthy 11% have gotten just 1.6% of the vaccines. countries with the highest income are vaccinating 25 times faster than those with the lowest. federal reserve chairman jerome powell is pledging to get the u.s. back to a great economy. speaking to a virtual panel, he
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said that he drives by a tent city for the homeless on his commute and that reminds him that millions of americans are still trying to find jobs. powell also downplayed the prospect of inflation. president biden's first pentagon budget will be a decrease from trump errors spending trends. the president will seek $715 billion for the military. that amounts to a small decrease once inflation is factored in. the white house will be able to present that as a compromise to the democrats who want to cut defense spending. and amazon has taken a commanding lead in an historic election. the vote will determine whether workers at an amazon warehouse in alabama will become the first in the u.s. to join a retail union. with about half of the votes counted, amazon is ahead by a two-to-one margin. the retail, wholesale, and department store union calls the system broken and says it will appeal. global news 24 hours a day, on-air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than
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2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. ♪
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♪ >> in the united states, there is now a lot of discussion about infrastructure, including green infrastructure. adding to this two elements,
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green and social services, social infrastructure, is positive. broadly speaking, yes, we do support it. jonathan: that was the managing imf director on the u.s. infrastructure plan. good morning. lisa abramowicz back on monday. let's get straight to the price action. the nasdaq 100 up on the week by more than 3%. the russell down on the week by about. 0.5%. . the s&p 500 futures up around three points, a mild move higher at 4092 right now. we had a little look at 4100 on the s&p 500 earlier this morning. yields up five basis points on 10's. we will catch up with the vice chairman of the federal reserve, richard clarida. tom: richard clarida on where the fed is.
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transitory is what john is focused on. right now on the science of washington and what is certain is that you always have to read the most current book in washington. emily wilkins this weekend will disappear and get through the first 2/3 of john boehner's new book on the house. out with a tell all. it is fascinating how john boehner says he is a hostage. within the infrastructure bill, how are the republicans hostage to their clear and present? >> for republicans on this current infrastructure about, i mean -- infrastructure bill, i mean, they do have to face the reality that democrats can go at this along. it's not easy to get all senators on board for a package this large but it is possible. democrats can basically maneuver without the. there are dual incentives on the
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republican side, number one, to compromise with democrats and get things done, but on the other hand, there is a sense that if democrats can pass things that republicans know that they don't agree with, maybe the best thing to do is oppose at all from the start. tom: who is the gdp joe manchin? mansion is the democrat from -- joe manchin is the democrat from west virginia. is there an equivalent in the republican party? >> it's only after joe manchin says no on something that we are shipped to the republican party and see if there is any republican willing to join with democrats to get them to the 50 vote threshold. for legislation like this that is really going to go through a long and extended negotiation process, you are going to see sort of the opportunity for lawmakers to let it be known to
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leadership and the white house what they want to see in this bill, where their red lines are. you are going to see them want to come together on this particular one, because frankly, whenever a democrat votes with republicans against one of these packages, likely some the house, you see republicans pounce. democrats don't like this either, even though it was just one lawmaker. jonathan: does the president have any interest working with republicans right now? his campaign was about uniting things and working together again. we are looking at a majority in the house of 60's. many people talking about whether this administration has a mandate to make the big changes they are trying to push their. >> i definitely think there are bipartisan discussions and bipartisan outreach in washington, d.c. democrats know that they have the power that they are able to run things and they do not necessarily need to compromise with republicans. at the same point, outside of
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the d.c. bubble, we have seen president biden go ahead and start pitching this plan to the american people. i think we are going to see something similar which we saw with the $1.9 trillion covert package. you did not -- covert package -- covid package. you our republican state and local officials, and say yes, this bill is going to be positive for us. jonathan: the previous bill had a simple and compelling message about a k ship recovery. the bottom end of the k needed some relief. this time around, the president is talking about china eating our lunch, the middle class getting fleeced, yellen talking about a global minimum tax rate. do you have any idea what the most compelling part of this effort actually is? what is actually -- is it actually? >> the white house will probably tell you that the effort is
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about making sure america has a full recovery after being in this pandemic. the last bill that was passed was to stop the bleeding and this one is supposed to take us back to the place we were pre- pandemic at even past that. you are going to see a bunch of different messages. i think it is notably mentioned china. that is something that has a lot bipartisan support in washington right now. you just saw this major piece of bipartisan legislation, how to handle china. i think by the administration using that, that is how they are trying to appeal to republicans. tom: what is the emily wilkins agenda in washington next week? >> they are going to see a number of different things. some regular legislation being passed. next week is the first time that lawmakers are back in d.c. since president biden introduced his infrastructure plan. you are going to start to see rubber meeting the road on that, as lawmakers get back to washington.
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big news today, president biden is going to be spending a smaller budget to congress. that's going to propose some of the initiatives they want to see in the next year. that is something we expect lawmakers to start to work on. jonathan: get some rest, enjoy the wicked. emily wilkins waking up early for us. let's return to that point. this message from the administration has been sort of muddled. i don't think larry summers helped this administration very much with last relief plan, he sort of muddied the waters. this time around, it is so muddled. if you had to boil down with the infrastructure plan was actually about, could you do that and one line? tom: you cannot do it in 1500 pages either. it's what you see in the first term of a new government. you see an all in bill. this is sort of un-american tradition. what do they peel away in terms of programs?
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what does that number get down to? does it get down to a convenient $1.9 trillion, which is not as big as 2.0 training dollars. jonathan: the corporate tax rate might not be 28, maybe it's 25. i don't think anybody thinks it ends up where it is not. we also have to remember these are high-stakes. we are in a situation right now where we are talking about political systems. and what is the most effective political system? the authoritarian regime over in china right now or the democratic effort in the united states? a democratic regime to get things done. that is what the president is up against, to prove this system can work and be effective for things like infrastructure spending. so far, not so good over the last 10 years. tom: has thrust is to go back to something traditional, which is an outline structure. the allies on the same page, for example, with corporate tax rollout yesterday. paschal donohoe of ireland said
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maybe not. jonathan: we know why. good luck with that. equity futures up a single point. i would take a guinness right now, tom. tom: ferro needs a guinness. jonathan: this is bloomberg. ♪
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jonathan: from new york city this morning, good morning. the story of the month is the nasdaq comeback. the story of the session something a little bit different. nasdaq futures coming in about a quarter of 1%. the russell outperforming on a relative basis. we switch up the board, is the story of the month. the nasdaq with massive outperformance over the last month. this over the last 30 days. you will see the nasdaq outperformance, up by 5.8%. tom: nice board. nice board. jonathan: you take it to the march 8 low, we ripped about 100 percentage points. here's the story for me. switch up the board again. 2's, 10's, and 30's. we rallied and sold off in the
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bond market on anticipation of better economic data. as we start to realize that data, we start to stall a little bit. it is interesting just to see what is happening right now. 10 year yields up by the five basis points. on the bottom of the average of the last 30 days or so on the 10 year. on the 30 year, up three or four basis points to 2.34. what is going to be the source of upside surprise? where is it going to come region ally in the world? the fx market more recently is picking up on the scent of that. things in europe are starting to get a little bit better. the vaccination effort in the last couple of days just getting a little bit better, as things are starting to turn in the fx market, too. tom: the hallmark of what we do here is conversation on market out canonic's and of course --
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market economics and of course, respected academics. we lost a great voice and robert linda. we spoke to catherine men of citigroup -- katherine mann of citigroup. we will speak to richard clarida later today. now, kenneth rogoff of harvard university on the dollar and the place within our global system. professor rogoff, i mentioned this line that goes from modern economics of you back there jacob frankel to the founding of robert mundell. and all of that, as a politician, you start to sing of friends, who talked about the dutch france -- france, who talked about the u.s. dollar exorbitant privilege. are we finally here where we could lose our exorbitant privilege? ken: it's a great tragedy that we have lost robert mondo.
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i -- robert mundell. certainly an incredibly original scholar. i do not think we are about to lose our exorbitant privilege tomorrow. there is no question that part of what strengthened it over the last 10, 20 years is that china has had a very dollar-centric policy. now, it's a mix of the dollar and the euro but the dollar and the euro are not moving much. as long as that holds up, i think the u.s. exorbitant privilege is solid. it might not hold up forever. it's really not an optimal policy for trying. if you -- china. if you look at the longer end of five-year, 10 year debt and look at say that color comparisons, the u.s. no longer gets any exorbitant privilege. it's really only on short bet. tom: the basic theme of the less
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sophisticated is that china not is at war with us, but certainly has a different political system and has a new, robust offense. can they use renminbi as a weapon? can you weaponize a currency? ken: look, they view themselves as doing very well and they are not looking to rock the boat. their technocrats have been telling them for two decades almost now you really should have on inflation targeting regime like everybody else. let us be a little bit more independent central bank. we can keep things stable. we should not be following around the dollar. there are lots of reasons. for the politician side, things are going great, let's not do that. they thoroughly intend for the renminbi first to be coequal with the dollar, at least with the dollar, and maybe eventually take over -- with the euro, and
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maybe eventually take over. i don't think they are looking to do anything quickly. that said, they have put out this new digital central bank currency which certainly has the seeds of being able to replace the dollar. jonathan: as you see things right now, what do you think is the biggest threat to dollar hegemony? is it a decision that america makes or a decision that is made elsewhere? ken: i think it would come from a shock to the system. dollar hegemony is not something that is going to go away overnight. typically, when you get on top, you keep it for a century or more. we have had it for a century, certainly since the end of world war i. on the other hand, if you are piling up 60% of the global public and corporate debt in the world, as the u.s. is sort of doing, and you are counting on that, and that can't go away
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quickly, it's a for jody -- it's a fragility. this wonderful paper was written about the hegemon is tested to just tempted to push things -- tempted to push things and create fragility that might be a reasonable calculus for the united states but not for the world. jonathan: where is the biggest sort of fragility right now? do you think it is in the debt market? ken: boy, certainly, if interest rates went up, it would turn the world upside down. i think we will find out a lot when europe gets out of this, when the vaccines come, that's really the biggest difference between the u.s. and europe. as long as europe, which is roughly as big as the united states, is sort of stuck in the mud, it's very hard to tell what's going on with global interest rates, what's going on
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with inflation. i think the u.s. has a wild to run before that happens -- has a while to run before that happens. this has been a very hard pandemic to call, particularly because of the waves of it. the vaccines have been vastly more successful than i think almost anyone expected. tom: ken rogoff, this time is different, a book from another time and place. i think i was at your book party. i remember opening it. there was that page you put together with carmen on the finances of the spanish armada. it was the spanish government falling apart. is our debt structure now spanish government equivalent when they launched the armada? are we in that bad a condition? ken: listen if the armada had not crashed because of the weather, we would be living in a different world history. i think it would take a shock to the system, a massive shock of
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which i cannot even imagine. we have had shocks to the system which we can't even imagine roughly twice in the last 12 years. we are more vulnerable than we were. on the other hand, i just want to be clear, i think it makes perfect sense what president biden is doing, certainly politically. you know, we are in this terrible situation and he is sort of getting done way thinks he can get done. there are parts of the infrastructure bill that make a lot of sense. a lot of things we can do in this country addressing inequality. at the end of the day, you have to raise taxes to pay for this. not only the physical infrastructure, but the kind of social infrastructure, transfer programs. tom: can rogoff --ken rogoff, james dimon wrote a 66 page letter this week. we have two quarters of boom.
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there's a question of how we come out of a boom, the runway. do we drop off sharply? ease out of it? mr. dimon very optimistic about an extended good gdp in america. what is the academic history of how we come off a boom economy or are we flying blind? ken: we are, to some extent, flying blind here. this pandemic is quite different than the financial crisis. people who say they are almost exactly the same thing, that is just crazy. we do not know what is next. if i go back to my intellectual grandfather, robert mundell, has student grow a great book 20 years ago with sebastian edwards of ucla. the theme of it is that populism actually works great for a while. their timeline was sort of two to four years, you get a boom, but then you get problems at the
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end of the boom. will there be inflation? will something go wrong? larry summers raised the point. i don't think it's an immediate problem. if at some point you run the war economy and don't stop, it will be a problem. politically, it may not be that easy to stop after a couple of years. jonathan: on the transitory argument around inflation, we will catch up with the federal reserve vice chair a little bit later. how will we know when they are wrong? when will we know? ken: i don't think we will know for a while. i don't think it's just going to blow up. it's possible that some commodity price changes will spike inflation for a while, but the core inflation expectations are very sluggish, they are very slow to move. on the other hand, if you keep running a war economy, you just undermine all the things underlying those expectations and people say it's never going to stop, it will change. populism, if you just keep doing
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it for too long, blows up. that's a political question. if you get a lot of stimulus and people say hey, that worked great, let's do it again. that's how you get into trouble. jonathan: good to catch up. good to see you. tom: i got the book already. 412 pages. i think that is light reading for you this week. jonathan: thanks for that, tom. reading for the weekend. ken rogoff there, harvard university professor of economics and public policy. the amount of humility we still need in this moment, even from someone like ken rogoff looking out. tom: mr. dimon made very clear he agrees with the academic that we just don't know. i am going to say this now for late april and into may, we are going to reframe it through earnings reports and were corporate officers say about the rest of the year. jonathan: earnings begins next
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week. earnings season with j.p. morgan kicking off. cpi data around the corner as well. we need to talk about the great vaccination effort taking place in the united states of america. we will do that next with john hopkins bloomberg school of public health. s&p 500, all-time highs. yields advanced, too. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> michigan is grappling with a coronavirus surge that made it the worst place for covid in the u.s.. the state reported more than 8000 infections and 30 deaths on wednesday. it is now on pace to surpass its december record. on a per capita basis, michigan has the most coronavirus hospital patients in the nation. the u.k. will decide by early next month whether people can
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resume taking international holidays. countries will be rated according to their coronavirus risk. it is too early to say which countries will get the green light. in vienna's iran's chief negotiator says the sides are now focused on removing u.s. sanctions in a single step. the u.s. has not commented on that claim and there is no word on tehran his offering in return. the u.s. has ruled out unilaterally lifting sanctions in order to get iran to return to the 2015 agreement on nuclear richmond. bruno le maire says that what is on the table is a real tax revolution. he was talking about the increasing prospects for global minimum tax for businesses. this week, treasury secretary janet yellen outland a surprise u.s. drive to enter hall -- overhaul international corporate taxation. in china, -- prices climbed the
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most since july of 2018. global news 24 hours a day, on-air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. ♪
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♪ >> the virus is not fully behind us yet. and while i am very optimistic and very bullish, i do actually
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have a note of caution. as goes covid, so does the economy. while we are getting closer and closer to having this fully behind us, we do have the last mile to earn and get to. i haven't lost sign of the. jonathan: i think they call that cautious optimism from mary daly. from new york city this morning, good morning. i am jonathan ferro. lisa back on monday. let's get. straight to the session this morning. s&p 500 index had a little look at 4100. right now, 4093, all-time highs. up five basis points on 10's. crude a little softer. tom, just a brief look at the euro, weaker on the session but the last couple of days, some enthusiasm back here. tom: the vix sustains at the 17 level. on the pandemic, we are joined
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by andrew from john hopkins university. there was a period one wave ago, two waves ago, where we would play this idea of comparing death tredn to cases trend. cases are flat or even elevating up a little bit, even as we see continued good news on deaths in america. is there a concern that we will link like we did eight months ago where deaths will come up and rise again with cases or have we finally separated two? >> the fact that we have immunized such a large percentage of our vulnerable populations, the elderly, health care workers exposed to the virus more frequently, that shed have a major effect on the fatality rate, hospitalization rate, less so on the case rate, because we still have not immunized enough of the general population. there should be a disconnect
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between the case rate and fatality rate. however, the emergence of these new variants seems to be shifting the demographics of not only cases, but also severe cases, to a much younger age group. that makes it a little bit questionable as to how much of an effect we will see on the fatality rate. tom: we will now stop the show and recapitulate a thought of the week. dr., when you say 38 thousand people at a texas rangers baseball game and they are the youth of america, i want you to explain the risk of this virus to people who won't die. andrew: tom, when you said that, i literally got chills down my spine. tom: jonathan ferro says that all the time, repeatedly says that. >> these are exactly the situations that we cannot put ourselves into at this stage in the pandemic. the case numbers are extremely high. not to get technical, but when
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case numbers are high, surges turn into exponential growth as opposed to linear growth, which is what we see when case numbers arlo. we don't have enough time to respond to a surge when we have a very high level of cases. we have a few weeks now, or maybe even two months at the most, where we need to keep public health interventions under place while we are vaccinating general population. we are doing such a fantastic job of vaccinating people in this country but we need the other tools to keep the case numbers down. otherwise, we are going to find ourselves in a situation where we have variants springing up everywhere. jonathan: we saw 4 million vaccinations last saturday. the average over the last seven days, 3.04 million. can you help me out with something? the difference right now between
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texas, which reopened 100%, dropped the mask mandate, and cases have not exploded, and michigan, where the numbers are getting worse and not better? what explains that? >> one of the things is timing. often times, it is unclear when the virus is going to start to take hold and expand out. there are a lot of factors that could make a difference. we certainly now know after a year of seeing the pandemic that the weather doesn't get difference. warmer temperatures -- the weather does make a difference. there are those factors that also play into how a surge is occurring. jonathan: assume we are close to policymakers treating this like the seasonal flu? >> i think given the efficacy of the vaccine that we can get this pandemic under control within
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the next couple of months, provided we can rule out the vaccine, provided that people are accepting the vaccine. that will turn the corner for us. while it is difficult to predict anything with this pandemic, the signs right now are that the vaccines are working, the vaccines, in the worst case scenario, may easily be upd ated to keep up with the virus. i think we are in a situation where we can get this under control and limit the severe disease caused by sars cov 2 and deal with case numbers in a way similar to seasonal influenza. the virulence is only going to be modulated by the vaccine and vaccination. it really is going to take a great effort to make sure that everyone understands that and takes the vaccine so that we can achieve that level of immunity in the population that is going to tamp down the severe cases and total number of cases, and
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give us that control over this disease severity. jonathan: 12 months ago, did you ever think we would have a vaccine in the way we have and have a rollout like the one we've got right now? >> absolutely not. i had no idea that the vaccine process would go so well. i had no idea that the efficacy of the vaccines would be so great. and the speed in which, particularly the moderna and pfizer vaccines, which had never been produced at levels and youe being produced right now, were able to get manufacturing up and going, is just mind-boggling. cautious optimism is the phrase of the date, perhaps it's been the phrase i have been using for the last month. we have a window of opportunity now or if we really buckle down and get control of this virus, we can see ourselves in early summer and a very different situation. jonathan: heard that from mary daly of the fed earlier on bloomberg. great to catch up. johns hopkins university
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bloomberg school of public health professor and virologist. can we get the vaccine tracker up? europe starting to shine other bit brighter, green. that is important. i caught up with maria tadeo early this morning. germany has seen 667,000 vaccinations, 720,000 vaccinations daily. that is important. too much white on that map. that is going to be the next great challenge potentially the back half of this year. tom: i would let the calendar move. i've said this all along, it's a le e day, every week. it can be local, national, worldwide, but it is april. april is not february and hopefully april is not july. imagine where we will be in july. jonathan: hopefully a lot better. tom: i was talking about the red sox. jonathan: portfolio manager of
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applied equity investors. you want to talk baseball. tom: they just swept the tampa bay rays. jonathan: you have not given up on the season yet? tom: i gave up a few weeks ago. jonathan: optimism around the red sox. alongside tom keene, i am jonathan ferro on bloomberg. ♪
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>> you are going to see rates move higher. the economy is about to accelerate. >> whether there is an uptick in inflation, to be determined, but the debate has changed, and that matters. >> there are certain forces at work slowing down the recovery in the world economy. >> you have started to see volatility climb again. that is not typically a good sign. >> there's a catch up happening and correcting for the covid stock. -- the covid shock. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: all-time highs. for our audience worldwide, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance ," live on bloomberg tv and radio. alongside tom keene, i'm jonathan


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