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tv   Bloomberg Markets Americas  Bloomberg  April 14, 2021 10:00am-11:00am EDT

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>> it is 10:00 and new york, 3:00 in london. from new york, i am alex steele. welcome to bloomberg markets. taking that reflation pause. the result of that is tech outperforming yesterday. we are softer. not a lot of direction when it comes to the equity markets. s&p financials up .6%. really good numbers from wells fargo, j.p. morgan, goldman. the reaction is a question mark. yields taking higher -- ticking higher. today is also about coin base and when we will see a trade, what it will do, and all of that wrapped up into bitcoin, hitting another record high of .8%. if anything starts to trade, we
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will bring that to you, but it is not expected to until later. deeper into bank earnings and what we got. sonali is here. what are the key takeaways? >> the number one thing is investment banking was gangbusters and will continue to be a stand out the coming quarters. we have j.p. morgan saying its pipeline is still very robust and goldman saying they are at record levels at the end of this quarter. ipos also a standout and debt underwriting held up well with the banks highlighting different areas like leveraged lending, asset-based lending, that they could capitalize on. where are the pain points? consumer banking, no surprise. loan demand has been tepid. this has been a continuation of many quarters of a trend, but now the economy is improving. j.p. morgan is signaling for even more tepid demand moving forward, and as rates rise,
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mortgages seeing some pain even though we have seen some growth in those businesses prior. some growth and auto loans. at wells fargo, more pain with the tepid loan demand and lower yields on loans because the efficiency ratio is high. whereas j.p. morgan and goldman has a better handle. alix: she will be back. thanks a lot. what is happening in the drug world. eu drug regulators beating up a review of the j&j covid vaccine after blood clot reports, while denmark is dropping astrazeneca altogether. drew armstrong's joining us, who heads health coverage a bloomberg. >> right now, in the u.s., usage of the j&j vaccine remains paused, more or less. the federal government giving that guidance yesterday and many states following, saying they will replace any j&j doses scheduled with pfizer's vaccine or mud dharna -- or moderna's.
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in the short-term, not much of a hit. j&j had not been providing that many doses so far, really just kind of a trickle, but it metals still long-term. -- but it matters still long-term. a1 dose vaccine is twice as convenient as a two dose vaccine. you can roll it out more quickly because of that. they had a 100,000,002 men to the u.s. -- 100 million dose commitment to the u.s. it seems quite likely that usage of this will resume, but you need to take the time to educate medical professionals about, how to treat these side effects make sure -- about how to treat these side effects, make sure they are as rare as they think they are. >> thank you, drew. bloomberg through armstrong. -- bloomberg's drew armstrong.
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-- it's coronavirus shot remained 90% effective over six months. joining us now, moderna's ceo, joining us after a 5.5 hour investor presentation. that's quite a lot, so thank you for joining us. i want to start with the news. pfizer is delivering more to europe. there is a pause on astrazeneca and j&j. if you -- if the world became reliant on you and pfizer, what kind of vaccine could you be delivering? >> 700 million -- $700 million to $1 billion this year. we have been --of course. alix: have you been getting more requests or calls from other countries? >> it is clear that, around the
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world, governments are scrambling. you see it around the planet. europe and then others. the situation with covid has changed from what it was in terms of what vaccine is available, what efficacy, what safety profile. so there are new things. i am on the phone with sometimes one, sometimes several heads of state. alix: alix: you have two things to work out. can you ramp up supply enough to deliver the dosages countries want in light of what has happened with astrazeneca and j&j? on the other hand, you are dealing with what kind of efficacy you need for the booster shot, the variants. how can you do both at the same time? >> we can. on the variant front, we currently have a boost strategy,
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one testing the current vaccine to understand what will happen when you do that. we have a very unique vaccine -- 100% of the genetic sequence of a variant as a boost to people who got the vaccine. and a mixed strategy, called two and one -- in one, and we think that this will boost what you already have in the new one. we put online the paper yesterday showing that that new boost has very, very nice protection against some strains.
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we are hopeful this will go to humans. we are in clinical trials. alix: in a matter of weeks. does that mean we could get this booster jab if we need it in the fall? >> that is the plan. best case scenario, like we talked about last year. the best scenario is what we are working for because the regulators have given clear guidelines. we know exactly what we need to do to get the boosts authorized, so we are working on getting those available for the fall, so as the virus evolves, we are able to protect people in the fall and winter so we can have -- as best we can. alix: you talked a lot on your investor day for vaccines about how it is going to be sort of endemic. it will not go away. it will be an epidemic, not a pandemic, but if it is an epidemic, when can we expect it to be mixed with a flu shot, for
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example, so it becomes part of our yearly thing? >> it is a great question. we are working on that. we believe the flu market is not well addressed by the current vaccines using the -- using all the technology. in a bad year, it is down to 20%. i believe the world needs a high efficacy flu vaccine. what we want to do very shortly after is combine the products, the covid variant boost and the flu boost into a single dose that you will be able to get at your pharmacy once per year in the early fall, so you do not have to worry about getting the flu or covid. alix: many countries that have their own vaccines, like china, are thinking about using pfizer or modernity use -- or moderna to use as a second shot, in the
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case of astrazeneca. are you ok with that? >> as of today, we have no clinical data to -- that strategy, but governments are dealing with a crisis. we have to make decisions in real time with what we have. several governments have decided to give a boost with moderna or pfizer. as of today, we do not have -- of the application. alix: anything in the data that you have looked at that makes you think that might be a problem? >> from what we believe, we don't think it should be an issue from a safety standpoint or efficacy, but again, we have no data, as you know. some vaccines have lower efficacy than the minari vaccines -- than the mrna
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vaccines. as a better in a boost? the same? nobody knows because no clinical work has been done. alix: speaking of efficacy, part of what you said today is that after the second dose, the shot was more than 90% effective overall after two weeks for about six months. that's the data that we have. >> that's correct. when the product was authorized, we had to know -- at the time because of the crisis. we are following people in the study. at six months, but 90%, which is a good confirmation that this vaccine is very efficacious. alix: do you have anything to make you think that that might change? >> know. with the data we published, it shows a very good stability and slow slope down of vaccine, but what is totally unknown today is what is the slope against variants in six months from now/
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which is why we are working to get those variants boosters outcome authorized, assuming the clinical data is good in the next few weeks, because we think we will have to boost people. if youth think about the variant -- if you think about the variants, the virus keeps evolving. -- protection from a natural infection, but also fire -- virus mutants can emerge, so we believe boosting will be necessary, and we believe the speed moderna provides will make a big difference in the marketplace. alix: i wonder also about testing. pfizer seems to be ahead of you guys. when do you expect to have results for kids and teens ? >> teens, the study is fully enrolled. all of them have been dosed. it is weeks away now. when we know, we will make it
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public. making sure everything is transparently shared in a public crisis. we will be down to 12 years of age from 18 today. the study from six months to 11 years of age is ongoing, but because you have to go much lower with younger children for their safety, and you have to start at the lower dose, we don't anticipate meaningful data before the end of this year. alix: really appreciate it. so good to get your perspective. appreciate your hard work. thank you. the moderna ceo, mr. bancel. coin base to open at $340. the nasdaq set it at $250. we will be watching that closely. record quarters for j.p. morgan, goldman and wells fargo, trying
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to rein in costs. it is all about longer growth. -- it is all about loan growth. someone from piper sandler jones is next. this is blumberg. ♪
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alix: breaking news one more time here. coin base indicated to open at $340. the reference price was $250. the platform was then valued at about $65 billion. this is a direct listing, so less visibility going into it. these headlines will be fun as they cross. we will keep you updated as they head towards that trading. the first word news. here is ritika gupta. >> convicted scam artist bernie
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made off has died in prison in north carolina. he swindled thousands of investors out of $17.5 billion. eventually, $13 billion was recovered. he was serving a 150 year prison sentence. he was 82. blackrock amongst the hundreds of companies and executives uniting to oppose limits on voting. according to the new york times, they denounce what they call any discriminatory legislation, making it harder for people to vote. republicans have tried to enact new election laws in almost every state. the 20th anniversary of 9/11, by then, the biden administration plans to withdraw u.s. troops from afghanistan. the terrorist attack that led the country to oust the taliban leadership of afghanistan. biden will keep some troops in afghanistan past the may 1 target set by the trump administration last year.
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global news 24 hours a day on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i am ritika gupta. alix: wells fargo shows a long road to recovery. goldman sachs equity traders fueled a record quarter. where do you go from here? jeff hart, piper sandler senior research analyst with us. let's start with j.p. morgan for a second, because this speaks to the loan growth. what is your big take away here? >> what we are seeing from j.p. morgan is old news. we knew it would be a strong quarter. not as strong as it proved to be, but if you backed those things out, they beat expectations pretty handily. loans are kind of flat, just a bit better than i was expecting, so i like the j.p. morgan results. i just think a lot of people are long coming into the quarter, expecting a good quarter and then getting the news.
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the question for these guys is what will you do for an encore? capital markets has really been strong. that has been the running questions for four quarters now. the answer so far has been yes. i suspect the answer going forward will be yes as well, but this has been a bit of weight and see or show me attitude in the market now. alix: based on that, i wonder how good you can look at goldman going forward, particularly talking about their advisories. crushing it. there backlog seems to have increased. what is your timeframe for how long this could continue? jeff: to continue at the level it is that is unlikely. you almost always see significant decline in q2. some of the things driving higher activity levels of trading and investment banking are still in place and will continue. i mean, i do not think we will
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repeat the first quarter, but i think by the time we get to the end of this year, people who were expecting capital markets revenues to go back to 2019 will be surprised to see them much closer to 2020 than 2019. alix: in terms of j.p. morgan and the challenge loans demand -- challenged loan demand, what do you expect? if the checks are out, that will not be the problem anymore. what will ignite it, be the catalyst? jeff: there are a couple things. what they are referencing is activity levels, spending on credit cards higher now than it was pre-covid. historically, spending drives loan growth. on the commercial side, economic growth is what you kind of expect to help kind of drive the loan growth, but it is true, they have as much cash as they have ever had on their balance sheet before. if you look at the data, somewhat counterintuitively, that is when cni lending tends
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to pick up. strong balance sheets has been a positive for seeing growth historically, so i see it picking up. the question to me is more will it be a pre q4 events or do we have to wait until 2022 to see that loan growth? we are not seeing it now. alix: overall, market participants see a stronger bang -- back half of this year, but 2022 makes them nervous. more going to capex. they get nervous about margins, etc. when do you get nervous about the banks? jeff: it is too soon to be nervous about banks. loan growth is a problem, but when you look at banks, typically you think of a bank is a pretty good proxy for the economy. they provide the lubrication that makes the economy grow. it is in the right direction.
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there are constructive things in the backdrop that keep us going, and if we get into next year, the big question will be -- and what tends to matter more for some of these banks, we start getting shorter-term rates going up, meaning the economy is getting strong. you can see good results to come. not that we couldn't see more pause or sell news this quarter, but if you are looking out the next year, there is still a lot to like about the bank space. alix: what are you expecting from bank of america? what are you watching? jeff: similar things across the group, unfortunately. do they had the capital markets expectations we have? that is one of the things j.p. morgan releasing a lot of reserves -- essentially, they brought their reserve coverage ratio this quarter to where we have it a year from now, so they brought reserve releases forward it looks like, but the underlying credit venture drivers support that.
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we will see probably some things from other banks -- see a similar thing from another bank. they are more asset sensitive than j.p. morgan reported today. alix: exactly and they have much more exposure in that way too at the long end of the curve and what happens for them at the margins, etc. talk about consumer for a second. that is the part where people were sort of "eh" with j.p. morgan. what i thought fascinating was a few years ago, the story was investment banking is great, we will do that markets thing, and all of a sudden, investment banking is what keeps them crushing it. jeff: if you look at last year, then yes. their traditional business has been good. they have proven they still have the boots on the ground to capitalize on it. they have had some of the best results in their peer group. what is hidden by that is some of the progress they are making
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and things like markets, consumer, transaction banking. a number of their growth initiatives are delivering ahead of schedule, which i think is a good thing as you look forward. it is just kind of overwhelmed by how great the capital markets are now. but if you went back six months ago, most of them were very skeptical they could hit their target or expectation for 2022. i am sitting here now, coming into this quarter, and i had them hitting it. as long as those underlying businesses that may not steal the headlines today keep moving in the right direction, i think that is kind of the key to sustained returns that are better than people expected. i suppose that is the cyclical benefit. alix: jeff, good to catch up. jeff harte of piper sandler, thank you. this is bloomberg. ♪
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-- >> it is time for the bloomberg business flash. a look at some of the biggest news. hsbc brea for sizing the importance it places on asia, where it gets the bulk of its profits. moving all of its executives from london to hong kong. higher shipping at e-commerce costs hurt bed, bath and beyond's profits, but the retailer reported a stronger-than-expected gain in in-store sales. they say they are not passing on its costs to the consumer. the you has raised a blueprint to raise debt to fund its recovery from the covid pandemic. that is your latest business flash. alix: coming up, we will talk oil, the iea with scott chatfield. this is bloomberg. ♪
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alix: live from new york, welcome to bloomberg markets.
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pfizer is talking about concern of supply for 2022 and 2023. we were just talking to moderna ceo about booster shots and the pfizer ceo looking a few years to that supply. the news today with the dpu that they upped their vaccine delivery to the eu about 25%. also some breaking news for you on oil inventory data. really solid draw, almost 6 million barrel draw as of last week. in the midwest moving up a little bit. gasoline inventory -- refinery utilization up about 1%. big inventory draw, they are -- gasoline inventory did build a little bit. we need to draw a lot of moving a bit lower. that all feeds in to the story when it comes to oil in the
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story. the iea also saying the oil supply is clearing. its forecast for demand for this year is now seeing stronger consumption in the u.s. and china following a more positive forecast. joining me now is the ceo of pioneer, the double point energy deal will add 97,000 acres in the midland basin. thanks for joining me. scott: good morning, good to see you. let's talk about the broad picture for a second. that has to do with global inventory, are you positive, negative, when does the draw happen? scott: i've been very optimistic about what is going on with opec and opec-plus. vaccinations, especially in the u.s. i still expect another 5 million barrel pickup in demand. that's why i'm very optimistic about oil prices moving up another five dollars or $10 in the next few weeks.
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alix: that will incentivize opec and opec-plus to move forward with releasing more oil, do we take it? scott: yes. most of the market share was picked up by opec in the next several months. over the next several years, especially with what has happened with the decline in u.s. shale growth. alix: not necessarily for pioneer. just made two acquisitions. a huge player. what made you think you needed that low point? scott: this wasn't about inventory. all three companies basically had a 12-15 year inventory. long-term inventory, it is all about our new investor model. it is a significant double-digit of free cash flow. we are picking up $4 million
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free cash flow in the next couple of years. most of that will be going back to the investors. we have a long-term investment. 75% of our free cap flow back to the investment. all about investing our free cash flow models. alix: you picked up a lot more to be able to pay out a lot more. scott: exactly. right in the heart of the midland basin. it is the very core of the midland basin. alix: you have been very constructive in not pushing your peers to pour oil into the market as we had higher levels. the the ia -- the eia says something different. what are your peers doing? scott: there is only a few privates that have picked up. almost all public independen ts, the majors in the permian will be a little flat growth.
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the permian is about 4.5 million barrels a day. about 65% of the u.s. shale activity. it will probably grow 300,000 barrels per year. the rest is on the decline. alix: get a little nerdy with me for a second. what about wells versus new production? that will dilute the number that we see. help us understand the inventory being run down versus what is new, really. scott: still only about 240 oil rigs. you need to get up into that 400 range to really see growth in u.s. shale. i'm not sure we are going to get there. in the permian and the other shale basin. too many companies. the ducks will go down. most as i have said in the past
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have too much and they will take about two years to deliver their balance sheet. the free cash flow from other companies will go to the balance sheet where most of our free cash flow will go back to the investor. alix: what are the chances the u.s. reaches its peak of 13 million barrels of oil per day? scott: it's impossible. we are at 11. we will probably grow to percent or 3% per year for the next five years. alix: part of that will be you, as you mentioned. what makes us think you won't go buy more? why not? scott: i have to prove to the market these are two great opportunities. everything has gone perfect with parsley, double point will be easier to bring in. we expect to close the transaction in may.
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very easy transaction. we need to prove to the market and our shareholders those are two great opportunities. alix: you won't look at anything until? scott: we won't look at anything else until we have proven in the market, there are very few opportunities left. a couple more privates but they are not for sale. i will ask the question about the private rig count a lot. it is up to 130. i don't think it will upset opec and opec-plus regarding any production growth. alix: does that mean they stay alive longer or die faster? scott: there are still 10,000 independents in this country and i think they will be here for a long time. alix: at what point would that become more interesting? we will have to see more consolidation, right? scott: i think you will see more as companies deal ever the
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balance sheet. i think they d lever the balance sheet. you will see more deals. i expect about five deals. maybe another five deals next year. over the next two or three years we will reduce the number of public independents. alix: you were just on a bloomberg new energy finance panel and you talked about adapting a net zero target. why can't you move faster? scott: on esc targets? alix: yes. scott: pioneer has been a leader in regard to the focus. most of our emissions are coming from drilling activities. we need to move to the grid. we need to move to renewables. maybe initially to natural gas. it will just take time for the
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technology to catch up. the whole industry is committed to moving away to diesel and moving back on our greenhouse emissions. alix: scott, always great to catch up. this is bloomberg. stay with us. indicated to open at $340 a share. ♪
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ritika: coming up at 12:00 p.m. new york time treasurer powell speaks. the economic clock in washington with david rubenstein. this is bloomberg. ♪ alix: live from new york, i am alix steel, this is bloomberg markets. wells fargo up over 3% after raising opening decline. the expense outlook for this
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year is unchanged. they do see a net interest income of about 4% in 2020 for all of 2021. those are the headlines there. coinbase looks like it's indicated, there's a long way to go here. this is perhaps the biggest development in crypto since the invention of bitcoin. >> coinbase is going public. it is a symbol of how far crypto is come. bitcoin has been around since 2009. despite the rally, the mainstream basically always viewed it with extreme skepticism. >> it is going fast. >> bitcoin is nothing else but a scheme. >> i could trade -- care less how it trades, why it trades it. you will pay the price for it one day. >> i think it is a scam around the world. >> fast forward to now, bitcoin
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is up more than tenfold since it closed last march. with the total crypto market worth over $2 trillion the large institutions are ready to play a role. >> bitcoin should be worth about $400,000. >> coinbase has massive investor interest. despite being less than a decade old the company is by some measures larger than established exchanges. >> there are many that are standing outside the gate waiting for that moment. >> coinbase generated $1.8 billion in the first three months of this year and had 56 million verified users. the numbers don't lie, crypto is here to stay. alix: that is joe weisenthal, great piece on the evolution of crypto. the managing partner joins us
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now, an early investor in coinbase. this is a really big day for you. what is your return looking like? >> if you combine my early-stage investment for coinbase, it is around 5000 x. alix: do you think the best has already been seen in the past? how does it keep up the growth rate in public markets with more competition? >> what coinbase really represents is what microsoft and apple was for the personal computer revolution. i'd like to take the a little bit further. computers are just bicycles for the mine. i think crypto is a bicycle for a more open economy. we are talking about the sort of value from bitcoin, ethereum, all of the crypto's at $2 trillion. there is one use case. this is really the place for you
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to actually buy and participate. alix: would you buy coinbase today because you believe in bitcoin or are you buying it because you live -- believe in a revenue stream? garry: when we invested in coinbase at $.16 a share bitcoin was about $20. we did both. what was true in 2012 is true today. we are in the very early innings of what we think is one of the biggest revolutions. we has an early stage investment firm with open door, instacart, all of these are software eating the largest sectors of the economy. it is possible that everyone of the startups that we fund is
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going to have a crypto component. when you talk about the open, lower fees mean more market participants. at the end of the day, that is net positive. more people get what they want and society is actually working better. alix: 6000 times your initial money -- what have you seen like that before? the returns in future investments. garry: i have never seen anything like it. i don't know for will ever see it again. the reality is it is not about the money. the chance to create software. that is the blessing that we get from software engineers from product people and designers. the testimony changed my life. i was reading earlier today that
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brian armstrong -- could you imagine being able to make that kind of impact? alix: when you look at our analysis on bloomberg intelligence, they are seeing something like a neo-bank. coinbase could become at some point. how do you think coinbase changes over the next five years? garry: i think this is
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on-ramp. at the door to a lot more use cases. we talk about bitcoin as value. frankly i didn't think we would be seeing here 10 years later with bitcoin sitting at $60,000 let alone prognostication. it is just crazy to see the value. frankly i see what is now called d5. lower fees, commission list, and open. you are going to see that across all transactions in the future. airbnb is software eating hospitality, just one of many markets. alix: you say open, low fees, now the regulation comes down. they will say coinbase is doing it with them, they had a fine and moving on. it is over with. the other side will say regulation is coming. gary gensler will be stricter with what these companies could do. what do you think? garry: i think frankly, the world needs coinbase because it needs to be a clean, well lit place. that is one of the big recognitions that created coinbase to begin with.
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one big innovation. what brian armstrong really understood was crypto, for it to reach the true potential has to be not a shadow realm but the world we actually live in. has to be real people and real transactions. the marketplaces, that is the future. we are the first pitch of the first inning of all of those things. alix: you wrote many ups and downs with coinbase throughout the year. moving forward, there are regulatory things to consider, bitcoin itself is volatile.
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garry: that term came out of reddit and was taught to us. 2014 through 2017, there was a mass exodus of people. coinbase had really hard times trying to hire and key people. the people who stayed were the true believers. they are the ones who will bring the future. alix: great stuff. i know a big day for you. we are waiting for the next indication. the managing partner, thank you very much. this is bloomberg. ♪
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ritika: it is time for the bloomberg business flash. antiharassment and workplace prevention training will be required to help fend off criticism that the chain overlooks workplace abuse. the franchise owned and franchisee will start next january. china's asset that up today. -- concerned about potential restructuring sent along dollar bonds plunging to distress levels. china reinforces the idea that struggling state backed companies should rely on government support. one of china's biggest companies, tencent holdings may be seeing the shockwaves from the situation. tencent is holding off on
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marketing a planned dollar bonds deal today. the offering was going to be one of asia's biggest dollar bond sales of the year. that is the latest business flash. alix: more concerns over china's credit market. joining me is our chief market strategist. we have seen this picked up more and more. what is so important about what is going on with the asset manager right now? >> let's be clear, china represents 19% of the 2.4 trillion dollar market for e.m. dollar debt. the government has been cracking down on leveraging the financial system. one of the dangers for the asset management companies that was established back post-97 is the financial crisis. what we are seeing here is quite frankly is the asset manager
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companies and the soa's, all chinese issuers of dollar debt. i thing i have to be clear here, that is the pledge to keep the offshore subsidiary that keeps the bond solvent in distress. we will see that here for sure. alix: is that what investors are expecting? damian: i think they have to. not doing so would be catastrophic for creditors and eliminate china from the global bond market. china local to 12.1 billion last or that was 50% -- 57% of all onshore payments. we are talking about tencent holding off on a $4 billion bond deal. the $500 million bond on monday, 1.7 billion dollar order. we will see differentiation going forward between strong and weak hands in china. we are probably expecting
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something on the 57% on dollar bondholders. i don't think the company will be able to deliver. we really don't have the value one would think. the proceeds necessary to pay back creditors. i think that is the real risk. alix: good to talk to you, thanks a lot. damian sassower at bloomberg intelligence. we have more on the story with scott rosenstein. pfizer will be delivering more of that vaccine to europe, denmark for example. what that means for the recovery going forward. don't forget about coinbase, still indicated to open at $340. waiting for that next pricing as we move towards the official opening. this is bloomberg. ♪
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alix: live from new york, i am alix steel and we are coming you down to the european close. with everything you need to know from europe. the bank of france governor says the ecb could end cap in less than a year. angeline on other tools to support the economy. vaccine victory. pfizer will increase its second-quarter delivery to the eu by 25%, 250 million doses, just as german infections rise. >> what we are seeing now is vaccination rollouts have been picking up, and it is important to continue. alix: and summer hope, british airways sound optimistic easyjet ready to ramp up flights for may if there is enough demand. let's follow on that. that is moving the market. guy would be very happy. he is holding out hope for his summer vacn.


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