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tv   Bloomberg Surveillance  Bloomberg  April 15, 2021 6:00am-7:00am EDT

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outperformance. >> i think the buyback and evidence troy will be big for banks going forward. >> just going to end up with inflation. >> 2021 inflation, 2022 inflation is more important. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance." jonathan: here comes the boom. good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance." i'm jonathan ferro. bank earnings top of mind. tom: what was that about? jonathan: retail sales a couple of hours away. tom: bank of america out a little bit early. we will get to it in a moment. retail sales is front and center and that 70% of our american economy and a boom economy. how much did retail sales boom?
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i will go to control group when we see those numbers. jonathan: big expectations. brian moynihan has something to say. consumers flush with cash. businesses flush with cash. that is the headline story in america. tom: go right back to asset size. the two banks together, jp morgan and bank of america are $6.5 trillion in assets. granted, there's a lot of noise but that is indicative of the amount of money, the amount of stuff that is out there for this american economy to drive forward. jonathan: city earnings in couple of hours. lisa, retail sales. lisa: that is paired with all of the cash on the sidelines, these cash deposit of counts. -- icons. people are spending it now. after the stimulus checks, a big pickup in credit card sales. that feeds into the high retail sales figure. there is a question, and this
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will be the question we hear throughout the morning, how long can this boom last? how long can people increase spending, especially given the friction in services, the lack of hiring, as well as physical goods with supply chain delays? jonathan: not about whether we get a boom, about how big it will be and how last it will long. how long it will last. tom: you nailed it. that's ok. transitory error. jonathan: futures up 18. how long it will last, how last it will long. there we go. bank of america doing nicely in premarket as well. there stock around 2.28% this morning. not about the data. how that market response to it. tom: one data point as you get
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prepared for your show tomorrow, the real yield, all that matters. real yield -0.74%. to me, that is indicative of this pullback we have seen in inflation worries. jonathan: i agree. cpi this week -- tom: transitory agreement. jonathan: yields lower on the session. i thought that was interesting. tom: given it is a boom economy, a percent gdp plus economy, we're going the other way on new dollar weakness, etc. jonathan: allete love how committed you are to this transitory game, that you're still drinking. pretty impressive. lisa, what a busy morning coming up. lisa: and it is tied to the big question, we're going to get incredible numbers. why is that people bringing back expectations for inflation and yields? perhaps the cash is an important story. citigroup expected around 8:00,
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but we could expect it in a couple of minutes if bank of america is any guide. interesting about what they say about loan demand. that is the story we got yesterday. we've not necessarily heard that much color run bank of america yet. to me that is key in how much dynamism there is beyond this cash fueled boom q into3 and q4. the range of estimate here dramatic. bank of america coming out with more than 11% jump in the expected retail sales. they're looking at credit card bills, that people are charging more. this is on the heel of the march stimulus payment. then we get a whole host of data from february business inventories as well as housing market index of builders. they will be very optimistic. jon, there is a lot of money in the housing market more than ever. people want to go out and buy and live in suburban areas, yet there is not the inventory.
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you are seeing this across the market. the frictions in the market that restrict how much money people can deploy and how much that could feel an economic recovery. jonathan: the supply-side has to respond. thank you. thank earnings out a little early from bank of america. -- thank earnings out a little early from bank of america. here are the numbers. sonali: there is one line that sums it up and one of the first lines he makes and his presentation, the economic recovery is gaining speed. yesterday we were so worried about loan demand. bank of america is showing you if consumers are not taking out loans, their finding other ways to put their money to work. for bank of america, one thing that means is $100 billion more in investment assets, for example. can they find more ways to make money even in that debt tepid to
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men? they have been shifting toward fee-based revenue for some time. the other thing i give america had done was say they're going to buyback $25 million worth of stock over time. brian moynihan is showing you where not only making money, we are making enough to give you back billion's of dollars to investors at a time when costs are still $2 billion above where they were before this pandemic. jonathan: looking forward to catching up. citigroup coming out a little bit later. bank of america came out an hour early. we will cover those numbers when they come out. tom: like a swiss watch. jonathan: not quite. conrad dequadros joining us. retail sales, 8:30 eastern time, huge expectations. we talked about bank of america through the week. what are you looking for? conrad: good morning.
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i expect it will be a very strong report and we have a combination of labor market starting to recover but most importantly, not only do we have the accumulated savings you guys have been talking about in the past round of stimulus payments -- not all of which was spent -- we have additional round of stingless payments, multiple of that in the middle of march. there is a lot of cash sitting around. the economy is starting to open. we have this retail sales report which is not only good spending. it does include some services spending. with those establishments starting to open up, that will be a particular area of strength. but going forward, what will power consumer spending is the services side, not the goods side. not predominately retail sales, but other areas of the economy that will really drive services spending -- which is the biggest component of consumer spending. i think that will give us very strong spending reports through
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the second and third quarters. tom: looking at the timeline of the overall economy, but let's look at retail sales. are you modeling the retail sales will be great q2 and q3? do they fall off a cliff or christmas? conrad: i don't think they will fall off a cliff but i do think there is some potential we have brought forward some good spending that would have occurred in the second and third quarters. for example, all of the computer devices that have been purchased , the tv's, a lot of the goods spending that has occurred over the last year because we have retail sales 6% higher than february last year to spin everything else that is going on in the economy -- despite everything else going on in the economy. the spending that would have occurred in a couple of quarters coming up but even as that potentially slows, i think that will be more than offset by the significant pickup in services
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ending. the consumer will be strong in the second and third order. lisa: how long do you think we will be talking about hotels and ridesharing services cannot get enough people to fill the slots to actually meet the demand that is resurgent? conrad: great question. i think a lot of that has to do on the progress for the virus and vaccinations. one of the big issues is that in some of these service-related industries in the areas where there are shortages, people are scared to go back to work. as there is a high degree of vaccinations and the virus gets out of control, those people will be willing to go back to work. there are other areas that might be more resistant. the transportation area for example. we will have significant backlog of demand and obviously that requires higher levels of training and experience. in areas like transportation and logistics areas it will be important. i think those shortages will be
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long-lived. but you touched on another point when he talked about inventory. we are looking at this strong demand to the second and third quarter, predominantly driven by the consumer. as you said, inventories are being run down and going into this, inventory levels are already too low. they have gotten even lower. as we move forward through the year, i see a passing off of the growth to the production and inventory side. not just any demand but to build up those inventory levels again. production levels will have to kick into a higher gear and that will be a source of support for the economy for the end of the year and 2022. jonathan: conrad dequadros of breen capital. tom: these are out of body numbers. they are extraordinary and we will have to get a lot from the
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different retail stories, particularly the big-box, dominant retail consumer as well. i look forward to a nuanced report this morning. jonathan: just to see how the find of this bond market response. that will be the test for me in the months to come. we finally start to get a move at their friday. that will be the test for the fed's credibility, so to speak. lisa: the credibility. did you hear what jay powell said yesterday? he said words to focus on expectations. we are watching the data and will adjust based on the data. the issue, and this is where the market and credibility comes into play, they really can't. at a certain point the data will come in when it is too late. so it is important to watch that. jonathan: i did not what i saw some reviews. lisa: it seems like he is struggling. jonathan: unhinged a bit. did he have a tie on? lisa: i did not actually see it. i just read that transcripts.
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the messaging of, you're getting way too i had with this. jonathan: banks later on this morning. thomas michaud. equity futures up 18. yields are lower by a couple of basis points. i just need a tom keene machine. tom: go to cash. jonathan: was that me or tom live? no one will ever know. 40 16 on the s&p. this is "bloomberg." ♪ >> the baidu administration is poised to impose sanctions on russia. -- the biden administration is poised to impose sanctions on russia. the move could be announced
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today in a phone call with vladimir putin. president biden ward the u.s. would defend its interest. fed chair jerome powell says probably will scale back the bond purchases considering whether to raise interest rates. in virtual event in washington, sketched out the fence and sued strategy -- the fed's exit strategy. he was regulators have extended the pause on the use of the johnson & johnson coronavirus vaccine. they concluded the meeting without a foot on the issue and will seek more data on a rare blood clotting side effect. jp morgan launching a multitrillion dollar green initiative. the bank has set a 2.5 trillion dollars in projects that combat climate change in advance sustainable development over the next 10 years including $1 trillion of financing for projects that offer clean energy
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sources. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and at quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is "bloomberg." ♪
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jonathan: this is "bloomberg surveillance."
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counting down to the opening bell, here is price action for you. starting with the s&p 500, up by 18 points, 19 points. a bounce back in the nasdaq, too. yesterday was a struggle for the nasdaq 100. yields coming and going. retail sales. euro-dollar just off when 20. citi earnings out a little bit later after bank of america beat a little earlier this morning. tom keene, lifted talked about retail sales a little bit more. -- we have to talk about retail subs a little bit more. this room. tom: we will see. 3, 4, five items of data. imagine in a couple of weeks as we look at the option data. jonathan: i've been looking at the consensus estimate. it has been inching higher over the last several months and now
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has a six panel for gdp in 2021. lisa: and this is the key conundrum, how long can it last? if it runs really hot, does that indicate a shorter boom or hot a recovery that is longer? this is not clear. i was speaking with an economist this week about how much precedent there is to this. the tax rebates that people spend it away but save the rest, but they really don't have any way measuring long-term spending of such a big pile of savings. jonathan: morgan stanley doing some good work on this. the shape of the cycle, willoughby shorter, willoughby hotter, will they be different than the previous 10 years? tom: 10 years ago we had morgan stanley talking about shorter. i do want to note blackrock out with earnings. we will not dive into it but it is stellar. what i notice is the concept of total blackrock and underestimated their.
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the regional exposure is booming. jonathan: it is been booming for a long, long time. the inflows have been phenomenal. i caught up with bank of america earlier and they said the equity when flows in the now -- the less five-month have been greater and the whole of the last 12 years. can you get your head around that? tom: you can't get your head around this. we are in a boom. there are shadows of 1947, 1940 eight, but they are shadows. let's go over to geopolitics. bloomberg sanctions reporter. jack, there are topics but only one front and center. it goes down to a single headline that the kremlin suggest they will not back off from the eastern border of ukraine even with the sanctions we may see today. tell us about the linkage of sanctions to the tensions in ukraine.
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check: more the justification we have heard for this new round of sanctions has been focused on solarwinds, the solar wind packed and past election interference. i cannot necessarily say this would be the last shooter drop over what we're seeing currently with the troop buildup, russian troops near ukraine, probably more to watch on that front. but at least we see the biden administration moving forward on sanctions that are being cast as sort of addressing old wrongs that they see from russia rather than a current up-to-date maneuver in response to the troop movement. lisa: is this ongoing tit-for-tat that people were expecting from the? biden administration? jack: it does look like the biden administration is trying to thread the needle maybe two
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months ago biden rushed off putin when putin as our conversation. than a phone call the other day popped up seemingly out of nowhere. they're trying to keep a line of munication open. i'm sure there will be a tit-for-tat. russia has sent they will respond to these -- has said they will respond to these sanctions. it does not seem like something worthy biden administration is trying to massively shake things up. lisa: sticking with the script of the biden administration, infrastructure. we heard from republican some skinny infrastructure bill. to get $800 billion skinny infrastructure bill? jack: we have heard from a couple of senate republicans, let's focus on something more traditional physical infrastructure they say would probably come out to about 800 billion dollars. that has not developed enough so we could count of 60 votes of support. it seems like the kind of thing
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that would probably lose a lot of democratic support because they do want to cut a lot of democratic priorities. that is why it hundred billion dollars is more than one third of what biden was doing. that is data very well cooked idea just yet. -- that is not a very well cooked idea yet. tom: i want to talk about moscow and afghanistan. leaving afghanistan, not just u.s. but nato troops. i what you to link moscow and afghanistan together. and nine euros and conflict come a 20-year u.s. effort as well -- a nine year conflict, a 20 year u.s. effort as well. they presume russia and china will fill the vacuum if we leave? check: that is generally a concern at least a concern as who's going to fill the vacuum. russian activity, sort of this overarching concern lately, especially when you talk about iran.
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a lot of the conversations recently about afghanistan, afghanistan specifically, had been what this means for the final talks with the taliban. but yeah, after everything we have seen with the u.s. policy toward the middle east, the big question in washington is, what does this do in terms of a power vacuum there? may be an unanswerable question right now, but essentially getting on the big question in washington in response to this. jonathan: jack fitzpatrick, good to catch up. i was listening to a talk with the former foreign secretary in the u.k. mr. david miliband yesterday, and he reminded me of a saint out of the taliban over the last decade that i think it's worth hearing again today. they see it as the americans have the watches and we have the time. that is true over the last 10, 20 years and will be next 20. tom: i remember sitting on the
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floor in london and the united kingdom was bringing back some coffins from afghanistan. very much different than the united states where the coffins slip into the station quietly. the u.k. followed the coffin only back to germany and on to the united kingdom. it was a radically different approach to what we have seen over these decades in the united kingdom versus america. jonathan: i think we've all had friends, family who have served in afghanistan. my brother did several doors. it is something i thought we would never get out stop and i think several people felt that way. tom: i'm speaking completely as an amateur, the underestimation in america is the linkage of the 2500 troops of the united states with the some 8000 troops and nato. this is a nato pullout. i read the nato pullout stated this morning.
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nato is pulling out of afghanistan. jonathan: coming up, we will catch up with the republican from kentucky. good morning. it is a busy morning. retail sales a little bit after citi. this is "bloomberg." ♪
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jonathan: from new york city, this is "bloomberg surveillance." equity futures advance 19 points on the s&p 500. up nicely. similar move on the nasdaq. a nice lift to this market going into really important retail sales with expectations skyhigh. switch out the board and get to the banks. let's look at wall street click. earnings from goldman sachs yesterday, absolutely stellar. red-hot. fantastic execution from the team at goldman as well. that raises the bar for morgan stanley tomorrow. bank of america early this morning. of about 1.5% of the back of better-than-expected earnings. let's finish on this, the kbw
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index. it has had a great year so far. 10 year yield in line with that story. we have been talking about this. the hot cpi print earlier this week, a little harder than expected, and yields with the other way, lower. 1.6130. we stalled out. i wonder what this means? tom: we will have to see on the bank rally. citigroup at 8:00. conversation went brian moynihan later as well. right now my conversation of the day with thomas miss showed from keefe bruyette & woods. he knows you walk into a baker's office and you start to talk about consolidation. you guys invented it in 1962,
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tucker hampton and the merger of kbw. you guys literally invented the modern consolidation with the bank of new england. are we going to see a redux in this bank boom of consolidation? thomas: great memory. you do remember a long way back. we did work on those deals for bank of new england. the industry has been consolidating for many decades. the question is what is the pace? consolidation is an important theme and we think it will continue. we think it will continue for a couple of primary reasons. number one, it seems as if for the first time in my 35 year career the bigger banks are more profitable. you look at our earnings models for next year, we see the morning about 200 basis points more return on tangible common
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equity. it feels like it is not just a flesh in the pan. these skills him to be working. number two, we are in a really slow revenue growth environment. the third reason is we thought fintech was important pre-covid. what we have learned during covid, it is even more important than we thought. all of the trends we were saying were accelerated by the pandemic, and that is going to drive investment. you will see more consolidation. tom: i want to go to some inside baseball. we do this on global wall street. what is the profitability, thomas miss showed, of additional dollar of revenue versus business loan banking dollar revenue? is it like to knology where it is 85% into the bottom line with the competition , old is 15% to the bottom line? thomas: i look at the efficiency of online banks versus
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traditional. tom: what are they? thomas: they may end up being 25% lower than the more traditional bank. just in a big picture view. once they hit a critical mass, you will see data drive much lower efficiency ratios and that will be the key. that is why you are going to see more and more branch rationalization around this country to try to get those out. jonathan: that is what is so interesting about the past 12 months, the holdouts of people who did not want to do the digital banking and workforce to do it. they had no other choice. how many jobs will be lost? thomas: there will be consolidation loss of jobs out in those facilities, but at the same time, you are seeing an incredible amount of hiring happening in the i.t. groups of these companies. i do think the headcount will come down over time in the banking industry, but it will be
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somewhat of a mix shift at the same time. jonathan: tom keene, that has been the story, the rationalization of the loss of jobs under the last 10 years. tom: you are right. we all see that at the five rages on the four corners of the street. one for one. what is the ratio? thomas: we're just talking about one half of the equation, which is what is happening at the core of the traditional banks. at the same time, look at somebody like galaxy digital, what is happening at that company. i heard a quote from the ceo in the last five months they have hired 70 people. these companies that are standing up as competitors we did not even know about three or four years ago, they are hiring like crazy. they are still within the financial services industry. it is all about a shift occurring, i think some ways is helping.
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lisa: thomas michaud, the question is, how much can increase profits going forward. that will stem from lung growth. we have heard from big banks already. that is a challenging area. how concerned are you about the lack of demand as a result of cash flush consumers and corporations? thomas: you hit the tension nail on the had because that is the question. just to set up with the tension is i think with investors in the market right now, credit quality is far better than anyone expected and results continue to exceed expectations. negative loan loss provisions, i saw some things recently practically zero net charters off. dish charge. capital is building. there is $800 billion of excess liquidity we think in the banking system right now. that is the fuel we think for a lot of growth. the problem is you are not seeing it right now.
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the demand for credit from the private sector just is not there. so if the economy is as strong as many people think and we think and with the industry is saying, some of this excess liquidity will be soaked up. we like to think by the end of the year, will start to see revenues begin to grow as core loans begin to grow. if it does not happen at your end, i think it is a question of when and not if and that is what investors are looking for. you are not seeing it right now in the industry but the industry is in great shape to grow when that demand comes back. the next leg of the rally. the rally since last september, credit improvement rally. the next rally is going to need to be the revenue growth rally, which really has not started yet but people believe it will. lisa: and this is the tension, how hot can the economy run if that loan demand does not pick up maturely by year-end. you are saying it is different from other analysts. you are saying if it does not
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pick up by year-end, it is a matter of when and not if the economy is truly hot or not. do you think we are going to see banks be able to profit from this hot economy in a way perhaps people are discounting as result of not seeing that loan demand? thomas: i do. i think banks will participate. but i think you're really going to start to see a separation between the winners and losers. i really believe if you are an old-school bank that is in an area that is not a faster growth area and hasn't really invested in a lot of the new engagement of technology platforms, there is a chance your growth curve could be left behind. but i think the major player -- that is why you are seeing the consolidation. figure banks stand up so they can compete with the nonbanking challenge that is happening. i think that is what jamie dimon talked about in his annual letter to shareholders. i do think the growth will be
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there. i think it is a matter of when and not if. i think the banks have done a good job of keeping their companies in good shape to be ready. jonathan: great to get your view. thomas michaud of kbw. these numbers have been decent under the last 24 hours on wall street. tom: decent does not describe it. this is once-in-a-lifetime. i remember the different fevers and the why did the fevers including huge inefficiencies that we alluded to in early dater -- days of keefe bruyette & woods. i cannot emphasize enough how in a seven page report from bank of america. on page five is a small little paragraph on their digital banking. it is stunning. also business digital banking.
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jonathan: can we touch on a story the last 12 briefly? they released $2.7 billion, reserve of $2.7 million. how wrong 70 people were about how this economy would look like -- how wrong so when people were about how this economy would like. to see the levels of these releases underlies things are so much better than people anticipated 9, 10 months ago. tom: they were dictated to do that by all sorts of good regulations and laws. certainly, in the natural disaster of a pandemic, there was a reaction. i'm sorry, i'm going to go back to the good news of one single item and you can spell it pfizer and moderna. lisa: the pendulum is shifting. the question is -- tom: here we go. lisa: how can you reduce revenues? are the banks going to fail?
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no, they're not. now the question is, how much risk can they take to improve their profitability? this is a question that you asked, which is our banks loosening some of their lending standards as they try to get loans? what are the potential risks? there will be pressure on these banks to take risks so they can boost profitability at least by shareholders. we will see the tension built. jonathan: i don't think anyone thought we would have a massive balance sheet issue. we had a huge helping hand from the policymaker. i think this was always going to be an earnings issue and the story just got a whole better for these banks going forward. where does the revenue come from? now it is about revenue. how can they generate the revenue and leverage what is going to be a boom economy to the u.s.? the answer might be, it might just take a while. things balance out. tom: every quarter the digital experience will make the strong,
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stronger and different sizes and that week will be good. weak, weaker. jonathan: rhyme on him at 5:00 p.m. with david western -- brian moynihan at 5:00 p.m. with david westin. we get you down to retail sales in america. this is "bloomberg." ♪ >> in phone call with vladimir putin, president biden warned he would defend u.s. interests. the president next move could come as early as today. the biden administration expected to impose sanctions on russia for legend misconduct -- alleged misconduct. a number of russian individuals and entities would be punished.
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the entire u.s. house will vote on the slavery reparations bill. the house panel approved a measure to create a commission to study reparations for the descendants of slaves. opposition from republicans banks final passage unlikely. president biden has ditched many of his predecessor's but he agrees with donald trump on the need to limit exports of u.s. technology to china. last week the biden administration added seven chinese supercomputing firms to a blacklist. u.s. businesses cannot sell to them without special permission is little support in congress freezing that pressure on china. job openings in london finance industry soared 70% and in first quarter compared to the devious three months. entry year of uncertainty -- after a year of uncertainty over brexit and the pandemic. people changing jobs could expect an average 18% boost to salaries.
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global news, 24 hours a day, on air and at quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is "bloomberg." ♪
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>> two months of data at the time.
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90%, which is good that this vaccine is very efficacious. jonathan: moderna ceo. good morning. here's your equity market. s&p 500, equity futures with a left up almost 20 points now -- lift up almost 20 points. under the bond market, yields are lower by a couple of basis points. going into this retail sales, euro-dollar. just a bit softer. that has not been the story the last couple of weeks. tom: it has been odd data. i want to go back to yield. i'm sorry, there is a statement being made by the bond market. jonathan: over the last several
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months. lisa, then we pause on the tenure at the end of march, collect our thoughts, look ahead to the data we have been anticipating for a long time. lisa: and we ask, how long can this continue? is this the beginning of a longer-term push into inflation ash which a lot of people are starting to reject outright as i look at low growth in the near future. jonathan: what does that mean for the bank sector? tom: it is simple. it is a boom bank economy within a boom gdp. let's bring in allison williams. she is been very helpful here a bloomberg intelligence. i want to go back to my youth, the car leasing business. there was hertz and avis and sort of everything else. where does citigroup fit in the continuum of jp morgan and give america and then? allison: i think they have a bit of a different business model.
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they have these big u.s. retail footprints. citi has more of a selective footprint in the u.s. and around the world. what we are going to be looking out for them is what is happening with international credit. in the u.s., things are doing extremely well. we are seeing big reserve releases. how are things doing internationally. the question of the day, loan growth. so their specialty is card and that is where we have gotten the disappointment across the companies. everybody is looking for that second-half recovery and now you're starting to see this bubbling up as well. tom: i'm going to cut to the chase. we are not going to hear this from anybody. are the number three or number four so they have to go and international, are they forced, compelled to go international? allison: i think they have not
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tried to change that footprint, so they have always been international. i would say that is more of -- these other banks have built up their footprint three years ago your acquisitions and they cannot to acquisitions now. citi could have made the choice as they continue to expand, to expand -- do we do what they have done, build up more branches, become more of the mass-market retail? and they have not. they have said, instead, we're going to refine, keep our focus on a certain segment globally. jonathan: and told me if you can come europe versus the u.s., the conversation coming out of the less particular crisis and what happened in the first couple of your set the stage for performance through the whole cycle. how do you think things stack up right now? allison: you zeroed in on the critical factor, the u.s. banks, because they took their pain a
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bit faster and benefited a good economy, they have investing in technology, gaining market share, and that has continued. sort of the beginning of this year -- actually, for the last couple of years, we question how much more market share can these banks gain the global investment banking business? last year we saw some europeans have some issues with the structure derivatives business. that is sort of a make your mix and what happened with dividends -- the difference the market but regardless, they had some pain. that was the one area where we saw staff cutting in equities last year. this year we have a really strong equities quarter. we have credit suisse taking a sizable charge. we have ubs revenue expected to be down with their expected loss , so meanwhile, prime brokerage at goldman sachs, record prime
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balances. if we look back at what happened with deutsche bank a few years ago, a very different story with capital issues, but once your prime brokerage business, once it starts to struggle, all of these u.s. banks will probably look to up their game. jonathan: not just about global climate, not just about the weather. we saw this with goldman yesterday. it is about execution. lisa: and it comes to capital markets. we keep shrugging off the capital markets tremendous performance. in perspective, probably the best quarter for banks going back there pre-2009 crisis. how much are people discounting capital markets equity trading, debt trading, perhaps unnecessarily, saying this will fade when perhaps it will? ? be a stalwart of these firms allison: the one important point i think is that the first quarter does tend to be the
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strongest quarter. that is adding to maybe people shrugging it off. if you look at someone like goldman, the earnings were so strong that they have just made 60% of their consensus profit yesterday. numbers have to go up. the third quarter was about 75% of full-year earnings for the past few years. i will put that in context. while people may shrug off, well, we don't know if he can continue -- that is why we don't give them the same credible supper that money is real. the excess capital is real. that is money that can be invested in businesses. you will see the value of that. by the way, all the banks said things are continuing. because of the seasonality in the first half, even if things do slow in the second half, even if if we say things will get worse, we have already locked in such a big chunk of the year that there is less risk and
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you already have all that money to invest and allocate toward capital use. jonathan: always great to catch up with you. allison williams of bloomberg intelligence on these banks. one of the stats, goldman in the first quarter delivering 40% of the year -- at least in terms of what people expected goldman to deliver this year. tom: but to citigroup and what we're going to see it at :00 a.m., maybe this is our first real statement as leader of the new bank. let me ask you a question. would people in the united kingdom want to do consumer banking in citigroup or bank of america? jonathan: and terms of the customer or employee? tom: the customer, the culture. jonathan: maybe. why not? if you say the employee i would say, if they get paid. that is always the way.
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tom: they need naming rights with citigroup. that is what they need. jonathan: i would bank with them, tom, if that is what you wanted to hear. tom: nailed that. jonathan: this is "bloomberg." ♪
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♪ >> there's a high bar to meet for earnings, but there's some potential for pockets of outperformance. >> 2021, i think it is 2022 inflation that is more import for markets. >> the market overly priced for that inflation risk. we are still going to have higher inflation to come. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: retail sales 90 minutes away. for new york city, for our audience worldwide, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance ," live on bloomberg tv and radio. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. futures up nicely on the s&p. the s&p 500 advancing 0.5%. a big number expect a little bit later this morning. tom:


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