tv Bloomberg Surveillance Bloomberg April 20, 2021 7:00am-8:00am EDT
i think we could have an employment and productivity boom and a real change. >> the recovery in the united states is fully in the price. >> we are looking not just at the peaks. we are looking at the sustainability of these trends. >> there's a worry we are getting into bubble territory. >> it looks pretty clear that the fed is not raising rates until the end of 2022, 2023. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: getting back to work in the united states of america. from new york city, for our audience worldwide, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance ," live on tv and radio. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. equities down about 0.4% on the s&p 500. where do you want to begin? with got beets for earnings and a little bit of m&a on the table
-- we've got beats for earnings and a little bit of m&a on the table. tom: you've got a defensive strategy by canadian national to take out kansas city southern. you've got j&j saying here's the dividend increase, 5%. not a big deal. then you've got the anticipation of all these other earnings coming out. our guests coming up can really talk to us about the choices that have to be made in the coming weeks. jonathan: let's talk about some of those choices on the table for these big companies. procter & gamble out with numbers. as our story leads with, this is the story for procter & gamble. increasing prices and passing on some of those higher inputs onto the consumer. how much more of that are we going to see as the year progresses? where will the consumer price tolerance be beyond some of the staples? tom: we will have to see what that is on a unit basis. unit sales are ok.
it is a mystery. you don't know where revenue is going to be. what i would notice in png headlines coming out across the bloomberg is about free cash flow and share buybacks. what is under said right now is the mystery of use of cash. what are they going to do with all of that money? jonathan: apparently, investors want capex. i'm still scratching my head about that. according to the fund managers survey at bank of america, it is not the buybacks they want. it is the capex story. lisa: you were saying it is a boom economy get my question is for how long, and has it all been priced in. hsbc's view of 1% yield at the end of the year on the 10 year includes this boom economy, includes investing in risk assets until the second quarter. after that, things slow down. that is why i think investors want capex.
jonathan: trajectory and duration. let's get to the price action this tuesday, shaping up as follows. in the s&p 500, off by about 0.4%. in the bond market, yields come in a single basis point. euro just a little bit firmer by 0.1%. we hold onto that one dollar 20 cents handle going into the ecb meeting this thursday. lisa: there is the potential for upside surprises in europe. today we are going to see the first product unveiling by apple, which is a $2.3 trillion market cap company, really highlighting the desire for something new to drive momentum, to drive earnings going forward. it seems like this will be a very important event to chart their next big thing following an incredible 2020.
then president biden is going to be speaking at an electric battery facility in south carolina. interesting to see how he sets up for some of the job growth stemming from combating climate change. the idea here that tony blinken put out yesterday, saying that china was really getting the upper hand in trying to capitalize on this new green economy. after the bell, netflix reporting first-quarter earnings. interesting to see the idea that subscriber growth is expected to plunge. we saw an incredible boost of people logging on, trying to watch anything they could to pass time during the pandemic. where does that leave netflix going forward? do they need to turn to advertising to boost revenues? how much could they potentially grow? yes, it is a good company that has proved naysayers wrong, turning cash flow positive. jonathan: nature is healing. lisa is becoming a little more optimistic. [laughter] lisa: i've been a realist all
this time. tom: her optimism is transitory. jonathan: you think it is going to fade quickly? i'm with you, tom. let's get to fill camper rail -- let's get to phil camporeale. as an investor, what do you want to hear? do you want the capex? do you want the capital returns? phil: i think it is capex, to tell you a truth. that is indication that they are catching up to that fundamental story after really depleting last year, trying to figure out where to stand. i would say that the story of this month, i know tom thinks is the yankees getting off to a tough start, but it is not. tom: that's right. phil: it is the drop in 10 year treasury rates. all we heard in february and march was this is going to be inflationary. what the bond market is telling you right now is not so fast.
the fed has the upper hand, and it is just another indication for us to be overweight stocks versus bonds because 10 year rates are going nowhere right now, even with all of this incredible data we have seen. jonathan: do like that, tom? that is the pr school over at j.p. morgan. they spend five seconds on it and go somewhere else. phil: but jon, that is the bigger story. that at the signal through all of this noise right now. everyone who is worried about inflationary conditions tightening, that is just not showing up. tom: the general counsel is an easier, saying it is part of a carefully balanced portfolio. you know i love your research note where you say this is not a year of beta. it is not a year of summary indexes. it is active management, and that means securities selection. which ones do i want to own? phil: the new information is the
large-cap value part of the world, the airlines, the cruise ships, everybody, when they get the green light to go on vacations, they are going on vacation. that is a sleeve that has gone up a lot, but that we believe in. i don't want to make this into do you want to hold growth or value. this has to be a combination because of what i said about rates. the only way that growth companies are really going to have a headwind in this environment is if you continue to see the march up higher in rates. but if rates stabilize, another yankees quote, reggie said he was the strongest. we still believe. everyone is saying to be overweight stocks versus bonds. the only people not saying that are fixed income people. everyone has the same trade on
stocks versus bonds. for us, it goes into what stocks you are picking. that is equal weighted s&p exposure. we never did that before. we just wanted the biggest, the cap weighted exposure. now we are changing to know little bit because of this dramatic reopening story that we are in the midst of right now. we think that the second quarter is going to be a 9% or 10% quarter. you just saw a retail sales at 10%. just an incredible backdrop for stock pickers here. lisa: your counsel also told you that when tom starts talking, talk faster to barrel through. [laughter] just the idea of low rates being the story, there's the question of the low inflation outlook of bond investors right now being paired with the incredible optimism of a dynamic economy being baked into stock prices, baked into the hope for capex and hopes for something better and bigger going forward. is there a dissonance here, the
idea that there will be some sort of momentum and incredible invention some of these companies to drive economic growth at a time when growth and inflation really isn't expected to pick up over the longer term? phil: that's a great question. this for us comes back to is this a reflationary environment or an inflationary environment. reflation is what we think we are in. that is an environment where companies can grow. the fed has a 2% inflation target, higher because they say they want this average inflation story. that is the environment we think we are in right now. the inflationary environment is that tail risk that the fed has to come in sooner rather than later. so we think this is a reflation environment where you get to see inflation rates at or around 2%, and that is a good story for us. tom: we are about the statistics
here. the dreaded yankees are playing april ball, truly in last place, and even worse, the dreaded mets -- for those of you worldwide, the mets are another baseball team in new york -- they are playing ball that is pretty good. that's all for us. lisa: come on. jonathan: no, no, no. phil: you don't win championships in april, tom. that's the bottom line. just like you don't asset allocate for today. you asset allocate for a couple of quarters i had. tom: as a red sox fan, i agree with you. phil camporeale, go away. [laughter] i did the baseball talk because we've been doing soccer. for those of you in america, this is a ginormous story. jonathan: is it 6-47 ball for the red sox? did i get that right? tom: that's right.
we know based on history it's -- lisa: can i say something about the baseball story i find really interesting? it is actually a debt story. yes, it is all about the finances. but the big teams joining the super league are all highly indebted after the pandemic really ravaged their finances, which might have lit a fire under these tensions which have been brewing for a long time. tom: you're dead on. a great chart on this. the tots go out. they built a brand-new palace. they haven't won since time began. so are they saying we have to do this or we sell the team? jonathan: they are saying we've got to do this tuesday stronger. i'm not advocating for either side of this. this one hasn't finished. there is way more still to come from this debate playing out for the world sports -- the world of sports. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. go on, tom. tom: the duke of cambridge came
out against it, and so did boy george. come on. lisa: that really sways jon's opinion. jonathan: 1.5924%. he's also a villa fan. tom: i knew that. jonathan: i actually watched villa/tots with him next to me along long time ago. from new york city -- why are we doing this? [laughter] tom: you know, baseball, football. jonathan: this is bloomberg sports. [laughter] ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. in minneapolis, the jury resumes deliberations today in the murder trial of derek chauvin, the white former police officer accused of killing a black man, george floyd. in closing arguments, chauvin's lawyer said the video does not show he'd violated department policy and training.
president xi jinping called for greater global economic integration and urged the u.s. and allies to avoid "bossing others around." he did not mention the u.s. by name, but said one country should not set all the rules. in germany, a potentially damaging contest with a challenger, who conceded. the chairman of the christian democratic union would be likely to continue merkel's centrist policies if he wins. johnson & johnson posted better first quarter results. they raised financial guidance for this year despite the setback in the coronavirus vaccine. use of its vaccine was halted after reports of a small number of people who received it that
>> it's just the tone of discussions that i think will change, and both sides have at the very least, notwithstanding what happened in alaska, wanted to make sure that things don't escalate further. we have seen there are areas where they can cooperate, so i think trade tensions which we wouldn't expect too much upside risk, but i don't think we are going to have any deterioration there as well. i think the markets will be happy with that. jonathan: that was jeffrey you -- that was geoffrey yu, bny mellon senior strategist. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. yields down a couple of basis points now to 1.5889%. $53.54 on crude. off session highs. in the fx market, the euro showing some strength. euro-dollar up a little more than 0.1% to $1.2055.
tom: now to our bloomberg reporter. jack, i want to talk about vice president mondale and what has not been noted in many of the reports, his colossal defeat to the conservative force that was ronald reagan. it was unimaginable at the time that he would only win district of columbia and barely win his minnesota as well. are we now, with the death of walter mondale, where maybe we are switching back to a more moderate washington, away from the conservative thrust we have seen for 30 and 40 years? jack: if you look at the big picture in politics and how politics connect to economics in the u.s., mondale's big loss and the dominance of reagan and the 1980's was more than just two or three elections. the focus, if you talk to
democrats especially, if you talk to people in the biden adminstration, is i think more of a big picture pushback to austerity, to a more limited government role, in trying to redefine the democratic party's approach to a more fdr kind of sense. tom: well said. the salt tax right now is the nexus. this is where president trump went after the blue, the democrat states. i am going to play with the taxes so you have to pay more taxes. that is the third rail right now. who is going to win that battle? jack: it is very hard to say because the margins are so close. democrats are at least hearing out these new york, new jersey, california members, even the progressives who see a change here is somewhat regressive because a lot of this money would help wealthier people. republicans obviously don't want to see that. i think ultimately, it depends
on are they going to go a totally partisan route, the democrats, on tax measures to pay for this? where are they really going to try to make it bipartisan? if it is bipartisan, it seems like -- if it is partisan, it seems like they could fit in this salt change. lisa: there's a question also how president biden is trying to get through the green aspects of this deal that are thought of as less necessary or less infrastructure-y. yes, i am going to make that a word. we are seeing president biden touring and electric battery facility later today. how much is this gaining traction in the states, the idea that the u.s. needs to invest in jobs with a role in fighting climate change? jack: in the context of the infrastructure bill, it has still been pretty negative talking to republicans. they want a proposal that is much more old-school school,
traditional infrastructure. but i would note that when they talk about this bill, they have at least started talking about essentially a gas tax for electric vehicles, a per mile fee for electric vehicles, which is at least an indication that they are willing to talk about some of these measures on electric vehicle infrastructure, that kind of thing. but broadly, republicans which of the big problems republicans have with what democrats are trying to do is the climate related non-roads and bridges portions of the infrastructure bill. lisa: can you give a sense of which industries and companies in the u.s. could benefit from u.s. financing or tax breaks, or something to incentivize spending in fighting climate change? what are we seeing being talked about the most in washington, d.c.? jack: a lot of what we have talked about in the context of this next big bill at least, and what congress would work on, is
a little more on the transportation side than the power side. that doesn't mean that that is out of the question for future executive orders or things that would happen under the clean air act. but as you mentioned, anything on batteries for cars, charging stations, really broadly defocus in that regard has been more on transportation infrastructure more so than anything big on nuclear, for example. tom: we are almost on the edge of may. what does may bring? within the calendar of washington, what does may bring? jack: may may not bring that much on all of this stuff. they are moving slowly on this bill. the goal is to actually get this done by july 4. the pace they are at now ask me think that that might be ambitious. i think in may, we are going to
learn more about the little parochial things that lawmakers want. they are gathering requests for earmarks that they can work into this bill and other authorization bills for transportation, so we may learn more about the policy of this plays out, but in terms of this seeing -- but in terms of seeing this bill become law, we are still a little ways away from find the group -- from finding agreement and seeing this push through. jonathan: that is jack fitzpatrick, bloomberg government reporter down in washington, d.c. procter & gamble out with a beat on earnings. the buyback boosted from approximately $10 billion to approximately $11 billion. but this issue on price hikes is something we've got to stay on top of here at bloomberg in the united states. looking at raising prices on several categories.
we have seen our reporter here at bloomberg point out we have seen this from coca-cola in the last week. we've already seen it from camberley clark as well. now p&g saying there are rising commodity prices, and we are going to pass this on to our customers. tom: i am the most non-discerning grocery shopper there is. i go and buy my tang, my sanka, and that's it. guess what? the price is moving on tang and on sanka. jonathan: thanks for that, tom. [laughter] it is a serious issue. lisa: it is a serious issue. tom: jon, have you ever had tang? lisa: keep drinking tang. it is all transitory. jonathan: it is all staples. lisa: good inflation versus that inflation. it is bad inflation if wages don't go up at the same time and if it simply crimps lower income
♪ jonathan: from new york city, for our audience worldwide, this is "bloomberg surveillance." a bit of space. no one interrupts for about 10 back in -- for about 10 seconds. [laughter] talk so much about the cyclical trade fading over the last several weeks. small caps peaking back in the middle of march. keep an eye on the airlines, down for nine straight sessions on the s&p 500. we will touch on that in just a moment. get to the bond market. here he comes. twos, tens, 30's. we spent a lot of time talking about the relationship between the united states and global growth. we have gone from divergence through q1 and now a real
conversation about convergence. switch of the board -- switch up the board, please. u.s. tens versus german tens. wider, wider. then comes the convergence. how much wider can this spread get? tom: i think this is really important. it is not only the absence of a move in german yields, but as you say, the relative or compare and contrast move in the 10 year is the transatlantic divide. jonathan: as europe starts to improve just a little bit. we will talk about that through the hour as well. a little bit of m&a detail in the mix, too. and we will talk about tang, tom, for you. romaine: let's talk about railroads here. canadian national coming in with a bid for kansas city southern.
so now you have competition in this space. you talk about just the general idea of cross-border rail traffic and how important that is to the future of these railroads, ks you -- these railroads, ksu has done a pretty good job. this would raise a behemoth that could go out of canada, into the u.s. jonathan: the first thing i thought of, does it -- tom: the first thing i thought of, does it run into antitrust stuff? because canadian national would be absolutely dominant. romaine: the canadian government had already raised issues with the canadian pacific bid, so it is interesting that this wouldn't face some of the same antitrust concerns. the u.s. hasn't really weighed in on this, but most sell side analysts seem to think this is going to be a pretty big uphill battle to get this deal done. tom: what else do you have? romaine: francine: a big deal --romaine: a big deal with
regards to altria and a clamp down nicotine in the u.s. they are getting a little bit of a bid here. ibm had earnings last night. it was a big deal. there was a lot of concern about whether they could take the cloud strategy to the next level. it was a cloud strategy that lagged its peers. they are finally showing some signs of life, though they did get a bit of a booster. the shares getting bit up in premarket, up 3%. nike down a little bit in premarket on a downgrade at citi. and virgin galactic down 8.5%. you had big news coming in overnight. cathie wood sold off about 900 thousand shares. this comes off the back of richard branson selling 113 million. a lot of investors really strike
-- really scratching their heads and wondering why the big players seem to be taking their profits off the table. tom: is there a normal soiree, or some thing different this time? romaine: this is basically going to be a minor update. they do not seem to think this will move the needle here. some of the suppliers might move. keep an eye on corning. gl w could move. tom: thank you so much. what we try to do here is pay homage to the early morning of the united states of america, so we digress. james o'sullivan, td securities chief u.s. macro strategist, because he's from the other side of the atlantic, along with jonathan ferro. the mail is coming in about orange squash. i've got british people telling me about orange squash. it is no competition, far
superior to tang. jonathan: it is a very concentrated syrup which you dilute with water, and you have a nice orange squash. it is made by many manufacturers . tom: thank you. good to know that. jonathan: anytime. [laughter] that's why i turned up at work this morning. tom: it is our cultural mandate here. jim o'sullivan deciding whether to walk out. good morning to you. what have you done with your boom economy numbers? you've got trophies across the mental. how have you tweaked your boom economy analysis? ja -- jim: good morning. right now the numbers look very good. we just bumped up a little bit the first quarter to 5% from 4%. january numbers were quite good. february was affected by the weather. march was booming. we saw a nearly 10% rise in
retail sales in march. first quarter we got 5% for gdp. we will see where we go from here. right now we've got 5% for the second, but that does look too low at this point. it does look like the first half of the year is going to be very strong. there's a question of how much of this is strength that may be is borrowed to some extent from later in the year. there's the reopening going on, stimulus happening. you don't want to extrapolate these numbers, but right now the data do look very strong. tom: you are being modest because jim o'sullivan is award-winning on a ridiculously predictive basis. can you actually look out with the o'sullivan crystal ball and figure out what capital expenditures will be? jim: they tend to flow from the economy to some extent in terms of broad demand. it has been holding up pretty well. in general, most parts of the
economy right now look pretty good. i think some of what you are even counting in capital spending is when people are sending in the way those are counted. in general, it is going to be the services parts of the economy that will pick up the relative strength compared with goods. the goods numbers are so strong already. there has been a big net increase during covid. so it is really the services side going forward that will carry the strength much more so. jonathan: we have seen that in the pmi's. i imagine within the pmi's, once again the numbers, the sub-indices will stimulate a conversation about high input costs and a struggle to get people back to these companies and a big way. how are you reading that situation right now, just the hiring situation? jim: right now the numbers are strong. we had 900,000 in the last preliminary report. numbers are still down from pre-covid, so i think there's a lot of room for growth there.
go back a year plus ago, the implement rate was 3.5%. -- the unemployment rate was 3.5%. inflation numbers were still pretty tame. inflation was edging up a bit, but not dramatically moving up. at this point i think we do have a looser labor market than before covid. so there's a lot of scope for payroll numbers to come back. i think there's always going to be pockets of tightness in the labor market, but there's a lot of people unemployed still. obviously the 6% unemployment rate understates that. it is more like a 9% rate. i think there's a lot of scope for the employment numbers to come back strongly in the next couple of months. there are still left with a higher unemployment rate than before covid. lisa: this seems to underpin the belief that inflation will pick up, but not materially and not over the longer-term. this 1.59% 10 year yield, what is it saying about the nature of the economy going forward?
what does it say about the pricing of riskier assets and how sustainable they are? jim: there's been a lot of talk certainly about is the fed leading the economy run to hot and all of that, but there's certainly been a pickup and inflation expectations in the bond market, but they would not, i would say, excessive. i think people are generally taking the fed's word that they are going to be pretty dovish. markets have moved forward somewhat over time the pricing of fed tightening, but i think people are still assuming that the fed is not going to have to or be able to tighten dramatically in this economy, given where neutral rates are. the 1.5%, 1.6 percent bond yield is still very low. jonathan: is there something about the reaction function that will force them to get back to neutral, wherever that might be,
perhaps more quickly than in the previous cycle? jim: they are going to wade into inflation is clearly over 4.2%. in the end i think it is going to be the inflation side. they need at least 2% inflation and above 2% on a trend basis. i would say we are still a long way from that. obviously there's a lot of talk about tapering first, but tightening is still many years away still. jonathan: good to catch up. jim o'sullivan, td securities chief u.s. macro strategist. i year ago, we opened up at $17.73 and closed at -$37.63. tom: i'm glad you bring it up. we were remote at the time. remember that day when you could hear the sound of that sort of
leaden yhud of -- that leaden thud of two full oil barrels in the upper imports -- in the abramowicz household. lisa: my kids were a little concerned about the fumes, but now they have taken the profit sharing with me and they are thrilled about it. tom: do you still have it? lisa: i unloaded it at some point. jonathan: for those newly acquainted with this program recently or in the last 20 minutes or you tuned in accidentally, most of this is in serious. [laughter] lisa: i appreciate that, jon. jonathan: there's a very different culture of doing news in this country which i am not acquainted with. tom: shane, thank you for giving me mr. simpson. i assumed that if anyone knew
how to get me tang, it would be you. jonathan: alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. equities are down. bond markets has got a small bid. euro is stronger. this is unreal. [laughter] from new york city, beautiful new york city, down 41 on the s&p. this is bloomberg. ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. day two of deliberations in the minneapolis murder trial that sparked a nationwide debate over police use of force. jerry is defying the fate on derek chauvin, the former police officer accused of killing a black man, george floyd, during an arrest. prosecutors say he violated department policy. chauvin's lawyer says the video does not tell the whole story. tobacco stocks plunged after a
report that the biden adminstration is considering a move to lower the nicotine content of cigarettes to make them nonaddictive. marlborough's producer altria lost $6 billion in value yesterday. in congress, a rare show of bipartisan support for a piece of legislation. the house easily passed a bill that would give state authorized marijuana businesses easier access to banking services. under current federal law, banks that provide service to marijuana businesses can be penalized. doge driving highercoin -- doge coin driving higher sunday through monday, and at the same time, bitcoin fell more than 3%. today is designated as doge day and supports pushing record highs. wells fargo rewarding junior bankers. analysts hit special bonuses of
$10,000 and associates will get $20,000 for building a surge in business. in a memo, wells fargo referred to unprecedented deals flow and client activity. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪
it doesn't really have a purpose. it's got a community, and maybe they can keep value there. i would be very worried if one of my friends was investing in doge coin at these prices. jonathan: that was the galaxy digital founder and ceo. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. this tuesday, defensive price action. your equity market slightly lower on the s&p 500, 15 points lower. we are off by 0.4%. a break at 1.62%. in the fx market, euro-dollar $1.2058. we are positive about 0.2%. i said keep an eye on the airlines a little earlier on this hour. the s&p 500 airline sector is down for nine straight sessions. united down another 3% in the session. just a pull back after a stellar run for that sector. tom: i am glad you bring it up. i would emphasize that today is
not yesterday. i think there is a whole different character to this market. maybe it is that nervousness. lisa: jon, today is not yesterday. jonathan: i get what tom meant. the last two hours, i just can't tell if he's being serious or joking. tom: i'm being serious. there's a different character because you don't do earnings as a rule on monday. coke yesterday, yeah. but we are now into the step-by-step of earnings season. jonathan: lisa mentioned it earlier on then the program, whether the bar is too high, and how much we have already priced in. i think we got a flavor of that last week. i think last week got everyone's attention. cpi unexpected, similar for retail sales, and what happens with bonds? what didn't happen with bonds? tom: the journey of "bloomberg surveillance" story to story, we continue that with eddie van der
walt of bloomberg intelligence. what is news this morning's venmo, paypal will allow me to buy tang through paypal using my cryptocurrency. what kind of spread do they make on that? there's a bid and an ask. how many ways is venmo/paypal going to make money through people using crypto to buy tang? eddie: this is everybody that is really in the custody business of bitcoin. if we look back at the history of bitcoin, custody has been the big problem. if you have it on your home computer, it can be hacked and stolen. if you put it on a regulator's exchange, it gets hacked and stolen. so you get people like coinbase that will sort out the custody, but in exchange, the give you these massive bid-ask spreads. in south korea you have seen massive premiums. that is purely because in many
ways, your coins are locked up, and it is a hassle to get it from one place to another. therefore you are locked in. tom: thank you, eddie. i think this is a huge deal, jon. the spreads we are talking about here are no relation to what we know in the markets. jonathan: is that a feature or a bug, eddie? eddie: it is a future for the exchanges certainly. they are doing great on both sides of the trade. really, these should be liquid assets. but the problem for the exchanges are they have to take the other side of the trade because they bulk off in the network is so slow that they can't immediately put the transactions through and lay off the risk. so the end up with some of that risk on their books, and they want the premium for that. jonathan: the spread is -- lisa: the spread is so wide. they must be salivating over this opportunity. how much competition will
coinbase have in a year, two years, from the major banks who can't let this opportunity go? eddie: absolutely. but not just the major banks. if you look at robinhood and how cheap trading has become, and look at how expensive it is on coinbase, you've got to say that there are going to be so many other players that are going to say, hang on a second, there's an opportunity for me to get into that business. so i think that is the problem for coinbase. i think for coinbase and investments like them, they are going to see some real price competition, and then the question becomes is it even worth staying in that business. we shall see. lisa: we have seen we work pop -- we have seen wework, paypal, tesla say they will accept bitcoin is a form of payment. how much is this an increasing trend versus a number of high-profile companies looking to increase reserves in bitcoin and using this sway to advertise
? eddie: i think that is a big part of it. elon musk is nothing if not a master marketer, and as good an engineer as he is, and i think that saying that you will accept bitcoin as payment attract a lot of attention. putting bitcoin on your books attract a lot of attention. whether there is upside, downside, who knows. tom: are the regulators going to come here on the spread that paypal and venmo identify? eddie: i don't know if the regulators will step in. i think the regulators will be happy to sit back, certainly on the spread, just to wait and see competition coming to this market because i think that ultimately is how we see spreads coming down. but regulation is coming for the crypto market, that is for sure. tom: eddie, what do you think about the super league? [laughter] eddie: you know, i think they
should put it on the blockchain. it is great for soccer fans, isn't it? jonathan: eddie, we will leave it there. good to catch up. eddie van der walt, bloomberg live blogger. on the latest in the crypto universe, crypto, bitcoin turning positive on the session. what a rally that has been. tom: it has been. it is absolutely crazy. there is. there's different flavors and all that. i am trying to be patient on this. i think people know where i stand on this. i think the whole bitcoin thing, the pricing, i don't know. jonathan: i sense your patience, tom. do you, lisa? lisa:lisa: so much patience. i'm in for the ride. so flavors, what is on your mind, tom? tom: we've got to go to the source here. aren't squash sounds so
interesting -- orange squash sounds so interesting. we think the tang store out of, john -- we thank the tang store out of amazon. jon, this is what my childhood was. jonathan: orange phosphate? tom: this garbage was my childhood. you could take it off the shelf and be like somebody on a gemini spacecraft. you've got to be kidding me. jonathan: is it a slow news day? tom: we are saved by anita bryant. she sold us on oranges. jonathan: lee ferridge, state street head of multi-asset. getting through it. i felt pretty bad this morning. lisa: we are helping out a lot, i'm sure. tom: get vaccinated, folks, like jon ferro. lisa: me today. tom: take someone with you.
>> i think we could have an employment and productivity boom and a real change. >> we are looking not just at the peak. we are looking at the sustainability of these trends. >> what we have to question is have things structurally really changed. >> what the bond market is telling you, not so fast. the fed has the upper hand. >> it is clear to me that the fed is not raising rates until the end of 2022, 2023. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning, everyone. a