tv Bloomberg Surveillance Bloomberg April 20, 2021 8:00am-9:00am EDT
>> i think we could have an employment and productivity boom and a real change. >> we are looking not just at the peak. we are looking at the sustainability of these trends. >> what we have to question is have things structurally really changed. >> what the bond market is telling you, not so fast. the fed has the upper hand. >> it is clear to me that the fed is not raising rates until the end of 2022, 2023. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning, everyone. a simulcast, good morning, on
bloomberg radio across this nation and around the world, and on bloomberg television. a sight to behold, jon ferro with us after a vaccination. lisa abramowicz sometime today with a vaccination. within all of that is the good news on the pandemic and so much of the world, with the rest of the world really struggling. the philippines, india, and in this show, tokyo has gone on some form of shutdown. jonathan: we spent much of the year so far talking about divergence between the united states and other parts of the world, and to some degree, divergence -- and to some degree , convergence between perhaps europe and the u.s. tom: you see it within the battle over yield and over the earnings that have come out, use of cash. just one example of use of cash, this train more fear in the midwest of the united states -- this train warfare in the united states. jonathan: then we've got the
capital return program at procter & gamble that makes the news. many people are still spooked by the price action of last week. to see the data come in the way it did in america and to see the bond market rally the way it did really stimulated a conversation lisa touched on in the previous two hours. is the bar too high for what will come, even though we beat expectations last week? that was the confusing part for some any people. tom: on the full faith and credit 10 year yield, using a signal from --, what are you seeing for government bonds? lisa: you're seeing this idea of reflation, not inflation. we saw a plugging of the gap in some of the business activity last year, but we are not necessarily seeing a change in the overall economic conditions of low inflation and low growth, and that seems to be what is being signaled by the treasury market. you do have the other side of that. a lot of treasury analysts
coming out and saying i would sell this. basically, yields could go higher. other people saying hsbc -- other people saying, hsbc in particular, they expect 10-year gilts to end at 1%. tom: conceptually, do we reframe -- do we reflate? do we get back to february before the pandemic, or do we go beyond that to something new and better? the jury is really out. jonathan: there's a difference between peak change and cumulative improvement. for the bond market, you're going to see immense cumulative improvement, even if we have seen the biggest moves already in retail sales and maybe other indicators in the weeks to come. by the end of the year, if you got unemployment threatening 3%, that is huge cumulative improvement to start to push things tighter and the labor market. that inflation conversation is going to go nowhere. tom: we've got the earnings coming out here. we will give you more of those
throughout the day. netflix is this afternoon. is that right? jonathan: it is. tom: netflix will be fascinating as well. the level on the dow, have a sip of tang, is 33,831 forget the vic's, 18.3. what do you see in the data -- is 33,831. the vix, 18.3. what do you see in the data? jonathan: i think europe gets more interesting now that the story has improved. dollar weakness turns into dollar strength. just as you get comfortable with dollar strength, the euro makes a move. it is brutal out there and ask for a change -- out there in foreign-exchange. tom: lee ferridge joins us now with state street, head of america's multi-asset strategy.
right now i want to get to your affirmation of a 1.30% call -- a $1.30 call on euro. in germany, can europe withstand that strong of a euro? lee: it won't be easy, but what do they do about it? the bottom line is the fed is not moving rates anytime soon. what you have is a very steep curve in the u.s., and that means for euros and investors, for japanese investors, they can buy treasuries and hedge their fx. right now, eurozone investor can hedge their fx for three months, they are in one junta 20 basis points over buns. -- they are in 120 basis points over bunds. that does not get paid for by the bond market. so you have a basic allan's shortfall. in that world, the dollar has to go down. we saw over the last couple of months this upgrade to u.s. growth expectations. we saw shorter momentum traders
bought the dollar. now as things calm down, the default for the dollar will be for the dollar to go down. if you haven't got more news, if we haven't got rates going up, if we don't have a short squeeze, the default for the dollar will be this drift lower. that is what we have seen over the last few weeks, and that is where we are now. this is why for me, that is going to be the default it will be short-lived -- the default. it will be short-lived, and that is how we get down to $1.30. jonathan: can you help us understand why this dynamic is so different to we saw in the previous cycle? lisa: the previous cycle -- lee: the previous cycle, the fed was leading the way in terms of hiking rates. they were hiking. no one else was hiking. therefore, foreign investors couldn't buy treasuries hedged because the amount they paid on the hedge cost them more of a yield premium that they were picking up. so you were attracting capital
to the u.s. fx unhedged. if the fed are keeping rates close to zero in line with everywhere else, the hedging works. if the hedging works, the dollar goes down. that is the difference this time. it is the reaction function of the fed. they are not hiking into this trendline in 2017 and 2018. the fed don't hike, the dollar goes down. jonathan: what is the best way of expressing that right now? lee: in q2, i think we are getting to this state. i like euro higher, dollar lower, but they are slow, gradual grinds. i think we are in a stage where e.m. starts to perform better again. we have priced in a lot of good news for the u.s. in terms of gross. yields have gone up. yields are now back in a range. so you have this positive growth outlook. you have no reaction from the fed. that is sort of an ideal world for e.m. but you've got to be selective. you mentioned covid cases going
up in various places. you have to be really selective. you have to be wary of domestic issues as well. we like max. max -- we like mex. a proxy to the u.s. we also like south africa is a reasonably liquid e.m. proxy, but we are wary of others. there's value out there in e.m. lisa: just to push back against the weaker dollar story, as we have seen the dollar strength in this year on the strength of the economy, markets are discounting mechanisms. people are going to be looking to a fed that will be tightening at some point. i'll concerned are you about better data spurring expectations for rate hikes even as soon as 2022, causing the dollar to strengthen spite all of these dynamics? lee: that is what we have seen. we have priced the end of 2022, for 2023. what are the fed dots saying? they are not hiking through the end of2 -- through the end of
2023. they've got a high growth forecast for this year, 6.5%. still they are saying we are not hiking rates. you have to listen to powell. the reaction function from the fed has changed. with average inflation targeting , they can ignore transitory rises and inflation. they are targeting the labor market. they are targeting maximum employment. not full employment. maximum employment. they are looking for underemployment to come down, for low income to go up. all of the stuff we saw in 2018 and 2019, and that is going to take time. tom: very direct. chris collins of bloomberg news felt that we were fair and balanced yesterday with the change on manchester united. what is it like to be liverpool, where last night you were tied with leads and your team is wandering off to the super league? were you medicated? lee: i will be if it carries on
like this, tom. it is not easy being a liverpool fan. this season hasn't been easy after left year -- after last year, which was a gift. the super league news is not positive in my mind. jonathan: i'm not sure a how would he people out there feel sorry for liverpool fans right now. [laughter] it is good to catch up. i've got to say, liverpool right now is a little bit like the yankees. when they suffer, some people enjoy it. tom: what are we going to see today? are we going to see these teams banned from european play? jonathan: i really don't know. what is going to be interesting is what happens with the players, too. alex webb on bloomberg opinion this morning, i thought he read a really nice piece about what it could mean for the players. he wrote for the european court of justice that ruled in favor of a rival competition in ice-skating of the international skating union on the basis that athletes should be able to take
part in any competition they choose. i wonder whether the threat on players holds. there's all kinds of legal ramifications away from those as well. tom: i know you wanted to look at the space program as well. a headline here, and there's been a lot of accidents recently in this jumble, we are looking at a man spacex flight on april 22. lisa: hold on a second, we didn't even talk about the helicopter yesterday. we mentioned it, but it was a big deal. it was exciting. tom: i had a brilliant observation at the dining room table last night. how can the helicopter fly on mars if there's nowhere? lisa: that's the reason why this was one big step for international helicoptering. lisa: he's laughing at me. [laughter] jonathan: international helicoptering? coming up later this hour, ben
laidler. tom: it's italian for ac milan. campari and tang is so good. jonathan: i bet it is. we are off by 0.4 percent. unfortunately, there is nothing transitory about this. we are down about a basis points on tens. from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: with the first word news, ritika gupta. in minneapolis, the jury resumes today in the trial of derek chauvin. in closing arguments, his lawyer says the viral video of him kneeling on floyd's neck does not tell the whole story. prosecutors argue that chauvin violated department policy and training. tokyo will ask the japanese government to declare a state of emergency because of the
coronavirus, according to a newspaper. authorities have been stepping up restrictions to consign a surge in infections just three months before the start of the summer olympics. in germany, armin laschet has won the battle to lead angela merkel's coalition in the november election. markus soeder conceded. armin laschet would be likely to continue merkel's centrist policies if he wins. johnson & johnson posted better-than-expected first-quarter results, plus the company raised financial guidance for this year despite the setbacks of the fallout of its coronavirus vaccine. they are awaiting word from regulators on whether use of its vaccine can resume after a small number of people who received it developed rare blood clots. former u.s. vice president walter mondale has died. mondale served under president carter, where he was seen as
the screen went bright i said, i have zero concern about streaming. it is a completely different experience. >> that was the imax ceo on the situation with theaters across the country. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. your equity market shaping up as follows on the s&p 500, a slight decline around zero point -- around 0.3%. in the bond market, yields are lower by a single point. euro-dollar, $1.2050, up about 0.1%. i know you look at the deutsche bank story this morning. tom: you've been out front on this. you've got to believe there's an adjustment. to me it is critical, and we are really at support on the latest range to break out of this ever lower, ever weaker on dollar would be remarkable. jonathan: i think it would not be unusual to see a big move. does it take us through $1.25
towards $1.27? possibly, tom. tom: right now on streaming, on netflix, paul sweeney is the founder of bloomberg intelligence. i work with him every day on bloomberg radio. really quite good at the measurement of securities analysis, and particularly on the nexus of content is king and our distribution as well. what do you expect from netflix? paul: i expect pretty good numbers. this is going to be a tough quarter for them with really tough comparisons, when you think about where we were a year ago at the beginning of the lockdown. that is actually good news for netflix because people were stuck at home, all binge watching anything we could get our hands on. they had a huge growth in subscribers the first and second quarters of last year. but the long-term story remains very much intact, which is for better or worse, we are all viewing more and more content
via streaming sources. tom: in oscar season, are we counting the beans, or do we have the ability to count the beans? i look at "mank," and ethics product, a black and white -- a netflix product, i black and white film. do you really know if anyone is watching this stuff anymore? paul: it is tough to figure out because netflix, for example, does not release viewership. there's no nielsen ratings for this stuff. so what they will do, they collectively released data on this, -- they selectively released data on this. it all comes down to who is spending the money to get the a list content, writers, directors, actors, and netflix is right there. but so are a lot of other companies like the walt disney company, warner bros..
everybody has a streaming service these days, so the competitive landscape today for netflix versus two years ago is 180 degrees different. it is a much more competitive marketplace. lisa: one thing analysts are looking at is whether netflix starts to crack down on the fact that everyone uses one password. one person get a password, and then 25 people adapt it. there's a question why netflix hasn't cracked down sooner. what are the arguments of both sides? paul: the first is technological. hbo has been dealing with this for years. but the technology is coming, and they will be reporting streamers in general because they all have a similar issue, which is that we need to maximize the revenue for each individual user. the ways you do that is you make sure you get each individual user paving for each individual account, and then you raise prices as well. so streamers have that capability right now, so we will
start seeing a lot more of that. jonathan: i think we've got to talk about the football situation, but from the position of the media and what this would mean for some of the broadcasters that have paid for rights to see some of the best players and biggest teams play football. what was your take in the last 24 hours? reporter: this is a -- paul: this is a huge issue which i know you have been talking about. some of the leading teams, i think they look longingly at the nfl and the nba in the united states because every single year, they know that the cowboys or the buccaneers or the patriots, they have the ability to win the super bowl. don't have that in the champions league. i think they look at that and say we would like a league where the big teams get valued at a higher level than some of the other teams do, and i think it is simply a money grab from my perspective.
it is where we focus on the media rights associated with playing the big teams every year. jonathan: for me, we have seen the outrage in the u.k. and eglin, and italy -- and england, in italy, spain, and elsewhere. but for a football fan in america, is that who this is for? do you think the viewers, say the public in england right now that populates so many stadiums on a weekly basis, their view matters less? paul: unfortunately, that appears to be the take that we are seeing from some of these bigger clubs here. they know that their brands are global brands. they have so much value in asia, just for example, but really on a global scale. the more that you can get some of these big teams playing each other, the media rights associated with that on a global basis would just be extraordinary. for some of these, if you have just come through the pandemic
and your balance sheets, your income statement look terrible, you have a lot of debt, you need to generate value and look anywhere you can. i think this is simply from a media perspective a really strong move to try to maximize the value of these brands globally. jonathan: really wanted your take on that. thank you, sir. paul sweeney, "bloomberg surveillance" on radio cohost, joining tom keene in the next hour. that goes some way to its planing what is going on here. tom: i have no idea if this is true, but i will throw it out as a theory, that they are hoping that one of the big digital fish jumps in for a colossal amount of money and solves all of this. amazon jumps in, netflix jumps in, apple jumps in. whatever. lisa: i do think the idea of a money grab, you kind of can't feel too sorry for anyone involved. it is hard to feel like there's a some pathetic character. jonathan: i totally agree with you.
refuse to advocate for either position right now. i find it ridiculous. away from that, you started this program by mentioning united airlines. domestic leasing is up more than 100% right now. that is the message out of the airlines. the ceo seeing fares returning to normal levels later in 2021. what we've heard from these companies, the international story has got to return for these companies to return back to prep -- back to pr ofitability. lisa: we are not going to see a return to some sort of international consensus on the pandemic until perhaps 2022. they said, though, that they also seafarers -- they also see fares returning to normal. jonathan: from new york this morning, good morning. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro.
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jonathan: from new york city for our audience worldwide, this is "bloomberg surveillance." alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. the scores look like this. we decline .4%. on the nasdaq off .33%. on the russell down .6%. in the bond market, yields in, not even a basis point. back to 1.60 on a 10 year yield at 1.6030. take a look at the euro. euro-dollar 1.2043. really interesting calls in the mix, reaffirming the euro-dollar 1.25 at socgen. deutsche bank looking for a midyear price target of 1.25. could get interesting later this
year. tom: we should explain to our audience this is the deepest market, everybody in stocks and bonds. even those in the equity market have to follow currency. jonathan: the epicenter of that, the city of london for a long time. coming up the next hour i will be catching up with morgan stanley chief wealth strategist mike wilson. have we seen peak rate of change and does that mean you should get more defensive into earnings season? that is the view of mike wilson at morgan stanley. tom: a lot of different opinion in the equity market. we await earnings, including netflix later this afternoon. romaine bostick and the team in the afternoon with a lot of coverage of apple. right now, ben laidler has done it three times in a row. he has made a major bull market call and been right. holding court at hsbc for years
and then onto different projects, we are thrilled ben laidler gives us the first interview with etoro israeli operation, it is big and digital and moving to the equity markets. he will provide global market strategy for etoro. can you reaffirm your very lonely double digit equity return for 2021? ben: i think so. i do not think it is a forecast anymore. i think it is a question of hanging onto what we have got, which is going to be pretty historic. we have had only twice in the last 50 years have we had this three in a row strong equity market. i think we do. valuations are high. earnings will keep surprising. i still think with these topline
growth numbers being revised up and all of this operating leverage, the zoning story will keep delivering. that is the foundation. tom: given the bull market, what is your guesstimate of what they will do with all of that cash? we are already seeing buybacks being the flavor of the moment. ben: you will see more of everything. more buybacks, more dividends. dividends or buyback strategies have recovered, they have recovered from how badly they did last year. they have seen a pickup in capex which is important to keep an ion. what we should be carrying about his next year. consensus says 12% earnings growth for next year, that seems pedestrian compared to this year. we want to see more than that if
this rally is going to continue. capex will be an important part of that. how consumers spend down this 15% savings they have right now. lisa: you have been a bull, you have been right again and again. there is a question of whether a 1.6 yield in the 10 year is inconsistent with the optimism we are seeing in stocks. ben: i guess there is 10 years of inflation history, or 30 years of bull market history that is a mark against that. bond yields are going to go up. one of the reasons i think markets are so resilient as we have been hugely transgressive with the bond yield tantrum and markets have survived. bond yields are going up and i think equities can survive that as long as it is a moderate rise for the right reasons -- growth expectations are due to move higher and i expect that to be the case. more broadly, bond yields are
important that it is not just about bond yields. bond yields were 1.9% coming into last year, and markets were fine with that. bond yields are negative in the rest of the world. that is not helping their equity market. bond yields are important, but there's a lot more to that in the earnings recovery. lisa: corporate profitability and earnings potential. is that isolated to the united states, are using the opportunity set shift to europe or perhaps the on? -- or perhaps beyond? ben: first in, first out, china the best major market last year. and have u.s. exceptionalism because of vaccine rollout and the stimulus. the u.s. lead the world among major markets. the rest of the world, europe is going to grow earnings twice as much as the u.s. if i look at where the economic
surprises will come from, they are coming everywhere, but they have been led by europe and the u.k., as europe begins to get it back together on the vaccine rollout, which i think they will, you begin to look for some cash performance, where valuations are cheaper and earnings are more depressed. tom: so far year to date spx up 11%. the big surprise is the reaffirmation of big tech and the story. your thoughts on big tech. do you participate with them or is the international story so compelling you have to go there? ben: i think the leadership will be international plus value, but you have to believe intact -- in tech. if you do not equities do not
work. i think the equity story still works. it is a different story, is a longer-term structural story which i think will keep giving. growth will be good. high profitability, none of that is going away. here and now, the ketchup trade, that is where you're getting four or five times earnings leverage to what is happening on the top line. lisa: there is a question, as you talk about the global look for the opportunity and you say china was the first in, first out, i want to give you these headlines from the pboc, basically that china has deficient equity capital and insufficient long-term capital. this is why they have such high macro leverage, this feeds into the people's bank of china effort to reduce leverage in the system moving in the opposite direction that a lot of other central banks around the world. how does this affect your view on the assets in china which we
have seen underperforming over the past month. do you think that underperformance will continue they stung where they are in the tightening cycle? ben: you are absolute right. they are at a different point in the cycle. central banks have had rates at 4% for one year. look where the rest of the world is. they are at a different point in the cycle. two things going on. there is a cyclical story which incrementally will tighten, but there's a strong -- there is a long-term structural story. they will open up the market on the equity side and the fixed income side to attract more foreign capital. that will dramatically expand for the fund managers going forward. tom: i want you to address the friday gloom crew. there is a cottage industry, at least in america, that wonders out thursday evening into friday and reaffirms and
re-rationalizes the walls of worry out there. how do you respond to that industry? ben: i want that wall of worry. if it did not exist where is your incremental buyer coming from? i think markets are becoming more secure, not less secure. the breadth of this recovery is now dramatically different than it was last year. it was all tech last year. now it is in everything rally right now. the threats to the rally, the fed making policy mistakes, i think they have been very consistent in that messaging. that risk will come down a bit. i am an investor of ogre -- i am investor of over exuberance. the markets have been smart. you pullback in ev performance, solar, all these microbubbles the market was getting concerned about have all pulled back a little bit. not completely complacent.
earnings do need to keep delivering, but i think risks have been coming down, not going up. tom: ben laidler, thank you so much. congratulations on the new effort with etoro. ben laidler is enthusiastic about the market wants and twice and three times. lisa: and right. tom: the first call was out of 2019, the ugly q4 we had, boy was he lonely. lisa: and very much right. you know what caught my attention aside from the tang and orange squash? lumber prices. they have increased 60% year to date. interestingly enough, wood is about the same price. how much a log sitting there is
is the same as that was in 2016 even as lumber prices increase dramatically. it shows some of the inconsistencies in the market, whether it is labor shortages, supply chain disruptions, or sheer speculation in markets, some of the weird aberrations in the market are interesting. tom: i agree with you. what is so important is i think it is lots of individual stories, starting with long beach and the shipping from asia and all of those bottlenecks, and it feeds into -- at some point the public says no, we will not pay these new inflated prices but we have not observed that yet. lisa: there is a tension between strains that will ease up as the pandemic fades into history versus things that will actually be sustained price increases and common goods we get every day. like your tang. tom: we will continue.
jon ferro another hour of uber television. paul sweeney will join me on radio. netflix this afternoon and that important apple meeting. stay with us on radio and television. good morning. ritika: with the first word news, i am ritika gupta. date two of deliberations in the minneapolis murder trial that sparked a debate over police use of force. the jury is deciding the fate of derek chauvin, the white former police officer accused of killing george floyd. prosecutors say derek chauvin violated department policy. his lawyers say the viral video of him kneeling on floyd's neck does not tell the whole story. the president of chad has been killed on the battlefield in a fight against rebel forces. he ruled the central african nation for more than three
decades. it is not known why he was at the front lines. the military says a transitional council will be headed by the late president's son. the boeing 737 max got a boost from the jet leasing sector to buy aerospace -- 16 of the planes. that is evidenced demand for the max is reviving after the two your grounding. the order is worth about $1.8 billion at list prices. netflix probably hit a speed bump in the first quarter. the giant reports after about, showing new sign-ups dropped 60%. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪
most companies are flush with cash right now, and sitting on that cash and waiting to deploy it. there is not much need for a lot of borrowing. there is certainly going to be a one-off blowout period. tom: stephen stanley of amherst pierpont with his informed opinion on the american economy. our opinion is the markets today are most interesting, and the debates of the moment are tangible, whether it is on yield, on equity market, up or down. ben laidler of etoro on just moments ago. then there is the simple debate, the heat of the moment we are in. the heat of the moment is usually centered somewhere down the training floor where there was a stack like a book of pink sheets. they were the securities that were unregulated securities that were frontier economy.
barry ritholtz, bloomberg opinion columnist takes great issue with david einhorn's comment that the sheets are a metaphor for this great economy in these unregulated times. barry, you are at 30,000 feet. einhorn with the pink sheets. how far apart are you? barry: i do not think we are apart. let me preface my remarks by saying i am a -- he was one of the first people who identified lehman brothers as technically insolvent. i take everything he says seriously. he is wrong across the board about all of the things he suggests regarding this idiotic $100 million deli. let me start granular, and say in 2015i wrote i was looking for disconfirming evidence. we tend to look for things that
confirm our belief. i was bullish and said let me find something that might make me less bullish. i found similarly on the pink sheet, $100 million grilled cheese food truck. to be fair, they owned four trucks, not just one. they did not own the land underneath the way the deli does. it proved nothing. they're always garbage companies on the pink sheets that have crazy evaluations. they stopped trading. i wrote that in 2015. they stop trading in 2019 enclosed last year. to draw a conclusion from an outlier is bad rhetoric. lisa: there is a question, how do we know when something is idiosyncratic, and we made that a drinking game, versus a symptom of a broader problem? barry: that is a fantastic
question. the answer is do not show me one outlier. i was at a dinner when people were debating a big point, and i always cringe whenever someone says my aunt's mailman tells the story -- just stop. this is an anecdote. a single example is an anecdote. anecdote is not the singular of data, data is not the plural of anecdote. when you can say relative to all of these other factors, this suggests the market is wildly overvalued, that is a different argument and pointing to a single company and saying look how ridiculous this is. there are always ridiculous companies, and in 2015, since i wrote that, the market has doubled. you cannot just look at a single thing. i was shocked to see the claim
this is proof the sec and the regulators are not paying attention. by definition if it is on the pink sheets, no disclosures, no regulation, no accounting, no gap, nothing. that is why the pink sheets are filled with bankrupt companies. if there is a piece of garbage company that should be worthless, it will be there and they are all too small for anybody to arbitrage them back to reality. lisa: i take your point, especially a time we see so much money flooding into the financial system.
to use that as an example to represent the entirety of a multi financial system would be remiss. at the same time, there are many instances of this. i was looking at a story of joe's coin -- of dogecoin, which was started as a satire, it has a bigger market valuation than ford or kraft. this started as a joke. at one point are there enough of the stories to start ringing bells? barry: research affiliates put out an interesting -- interesting piece on ev's. he uses the phrase big market delusions. what that means is when a sector is priced, that means every level of that group will be the outsized winner. he uses electric vehicles as an example. you can have tesla and lucid and neo-. two doesn't start ups as well as all of the internal combustion incumbents -- two dozen
start ups as well as all of the internal combustion incumbents. you get this delusion and eventually the losers pull out and you are left with the winners. every loot -- every new technology leads to that. we will see something very similar to that in crypto, with maybe it is in bitcoin or some combination, and the rest of these become worthless, but right now we are dealing with that term big market delusion when the sector is ridiculous and they are priced as if they are all winners. we know there will be water two winners. tom: we are out of time. very important on this move down to the pink sheets of another time and place. we are so qualified to talk about this. jon ferro has exited. the combination of my knowledge with one l. abramowitz.
this is why you watch on television and why you listen on radio. the prime minister of united kingdom -- no action is off the table to stop super league. lisa: you and i adding value to our conversation about football. right now jonathan is shaking his head, this idea of this not being an inevitability to create a super league -- i am even going to start. tom: i wondering how president biden or good president trump, how they would weigh in on this. lisa: that is your one question. will we get president trump disapproval? tom: this is serious. the europeans could band some of the teams from playing some of the games in europe and the premier league could ban teams because they went to europe. lisa: we are nailing it. the overarching idea. i will say the overarching idea is uefa --i will not even try.
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♪ jonathan: from new york city, good morning, good morning. "the countdown to the open" begins right now. equity futures on the s&p 500 down .4%. we begin with a big issue. the next stage of the cycle. >> the market starting to worry about this idea the growth is peaking. >> we are at an inflection point. >> we know the economy is reopening. >> the recovery is locked solid. >> we have the peak in growth. >> the question is what comes next. >> right now is the beginning of a new cycle. >> it is a mix of quality and value for the next stage of the cycle. >> we are broadening out. >> we want to own the biggest beneficiaries. >> cash flow starts to come back into the market. >>