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tv   Bloomberg Markets Asia  Bloomberg  May 26, 2021 10:00pm-11:00pm EDT

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to maintain order, getting tougher as money floods into everything from commodities to stocks. >> plus, china is clamping down on some corn imports amid concern overseas purchases have spiraled. a representative from the commonwealth bank talks to us about the repercussions. yvonne: plenty of things to talk about this hour. a press conference is happening in about 20 minutes time. are we going to see a hawkish lien? markets wise, we are seeing a risk off mood. the asx 200 in particular. entering the seven-day lockdown as the virus emerges. chinese stocks still looking pretty quiet today.
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we look at industrial profits numbers that did see bumper double-digit growth. it has moderated when it comes to the growth numbers. take a look at u.s. futures, we are still seeing them pretty steady. we are watching the dollar in particular. the bloomberg dollar index rose for the first time this week. we are seeing pressure when it comes to asian currencies. the kiwi on a 16 week high against the aussie dollar. we are seeing pressure amid some of these lockdowns out of victoria. the offshore bremen be -- offshore remimbi still holding. we see a cooldown when it comes to the asset class, but a lot of focus on china. first it was the clampdown on iron ore, copper, corn. the next victim as we talk about import clampdown's, it seems
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like a negotiating tactic out of china, but we did see movement in these core markets rebounding. it seems like those u.s. cargoes that were canceled there, not that big enough to shift the outlook. haslinda: top u.s. and chinese trade officials have just finished their first discussion. talks between the vice premier and a u.s. trade representative were constructive. let's bring in our china correspondent, tom mackenzie in beijing. it's constructive and very important. tom: as you say, this is the first set of talks between the sides since the biden administration took over. they said these conversations
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were constructive, candid, and will be continued. they both agreed trade between the two sides is important. we know katherine tai went into this wanting to keep policy continuity. she wanted to check china was living up to its commitments. they have emphasized they want to see the tariffs the u.s. has imposed on chinese goods rolled back, currently at $335 billion u.s. yvonne: how much progress has been made when it comes to the phase one trade deal? tom: china is off target in terms of its commitments on the phase one deal. last year not a big surprise. they point to supply chain reductions, the impact of the pandemic. they came a little under 60% on meeting the target.
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we have seen china ramping up its import of soft commodities from the u.s., also energy products, currently around 70% of the target. four context, the agreement of the baseline deal committed china to buying $200 million worth of goods above a 2017 baselevel in 2020 and 2021. the u.s. is concerned about intellectual property. china can point to modest progress. other structural issues they have to take up at a later date. haslinda: earlier china clamping down on u.s. corn imports. what's going on there? tom: the timing is interesting. in these free trade zones, there has been pressure on feed mill producers. essentially they have been banning and canceling u.s.
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shipments of corn. authorities are concerned about the incredible amount of buying you have been seeing, so you see a little under one million tons of u.s. corn cargo stopped. the context is that china has about 20 million tons of u.s. corn this season alone. there are some traders in the u.s. saying this is a tactic by china to pressure prices lower. we did get per bushel seven dollars, but that is the highest we have seen. the view before this happened was china was going to have a record year in terms of imports of corn from the u.s. we will see if that happens. yvonne: tom mackenzie, our china correspondent and coanchor. we have vonnie quinn in new york. >> president biden has ordered u.s. intelligence to increase efforts to determine the origin of covid-19. he said a report from the
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intelligence community was divided on whether the virus came from animals or a laboratory. biden says there was not enough information to make an assessment. china says it supports an examination into all early covid cases around the world. beijing's foreign ministry posted on its website that the code must be complete, transparent, and based on facts and should include secret bases and biological labs, but did not elaborate. victoria is entering a seven-day lockdown as a cluster of cases continue to grow. the capital has been bracing for such a move from the state government. health officials have warned infected people have been to dozens of venues in the city. prior to the lockdown, the state had made masks mandatory and imposed limits on gatherings. the taiwanese president says intervention from china blocked
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an almost done deal with biontech for vaccines. they say the island only deals with pharma companies directly or through covax to avoid legal and political risk. taiwan has secured almost 31 million vaccine doses. u.s. senator elizabeth warren has called jp morgan ceo jamie dimon the star of the overdraft show. the biggest chief testified virtually on capitol hill about the state of the industry. banks levied hefty fees on customers during the pandemic. she said jp morgan made almost $1.5 billion from overdraft fees last year, seven times more than competitors. global news 24 hours a day, on-air and at bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. yvonne: investors brace for a
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dizzying month ahead. tobin gorey joins us later this hour. next, analysis on the bok's rate decision and deutsche bank's chief asian economist julianna lee. ♪
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yvonne: 10 minutes away from the presser from the bank of korea. go to tliv for the analysis from commentators and guests and editors about what to look for after we did hear the central bank raise their outlook for growth and inflation this year while keeping rates at a record low. it has the economy growing at 4%, up from 3%, and these
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inflation at 1.8%. let's get reaction from deutsche bank chief asian economist juliana lee. they are staying accommodative, they say. what are you expecting in tone and language from the governor? what guidance do you think he is going to have for the coming weeks and months? >> i think tone is very important. at the moment i think a lot of central banks have difficulties in the balancing act. on the one hand, they see the recovery as far as the data is concerned and have upgraded the forecast. at the same time, they need to valiance -- to balance that with covid cases globally and the downside risk. they are trying to manage that expectation as far as the actual rate hike is concerned. unlike new zealand, we think the
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central bank in korea will be one of the first to go as far as a rate hike is concerned. today i think they will try to balance the upgrade in growth and inflation forecasts and try to balance the market expectation as far as the rate hike is concerned and the timing. yvonne: what korea is dealing with is similar to other economies, rising food inflation . you mentioned what we are seeing in the metals space and commodities, in particular soft commodities you say is more important. why is that? >> when we do the study, if you look at it in terms of impact on inflation as far as food is concerned, if you look at the food price shock impact, it is more than double that of fuel. when we saw commodity prices, especially soft commodities,
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rising almost 40% in the fourth quarter, that plays into inflation more so than fuel. this is critical in terms of looking at the inflation outlook. if you look at it in terms of the outcome over the first quarter until now, inflation data points have upside. haslinda: it is interesting because china is seeing softening growth because of surging raw material prices. at what stage do you think this will hurt other asian economies? >> in terms of what is driving and hurting some of the asian economies is the recurrent coronavirus, clearly. the new cases taking place, especially around southern asia, is slowing down the recovery and domestic demand. in terms of if you look at the
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ppi surge, in order for that to translate into inflation, you need to see domestic man -- domestic demand pickup further. whether central banks react to inflation increase, especially a supply-side constraints, remains to be seen. some central banks may be prompted to hike rates even though the recovery is not strong enough because the currencies, under pressure next year. haslinda: which central banks will move first? you expect the bok to be among the first. which banks in asia are likely to move as well? >> pboc we are expecting to move in the first quarter. bok may go ahead of pboc. as far as the others, some of the central banks later on in 2022 may be prompted to hike rates. the fundamentals may not say so
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because of the pressure on the currency. bsp may be one of the first ones in the first half for the economies in the south because the currency comes under pressure. yvonne: we have seen china trying to absorb this inflation shock on global supply chains. they are clamping down on imports when it comes to corn, commodities like iron ore, copper, housing. do you think this approach is sustainable? at what point does china reach the breaking point? >> i think that's an important part. how much can some of the policies address the pressure as far as ppi is concerned? whether that is cutting the import tax or ending the refund for the vat of exports. if you look at what they are trying to do, there are several things weighing on the recovery
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of domestic demand. in terms of the strict fiscal posture by china, it has slowed down or limited the recovery. i think we need to see the vaccination rate pickup, and it has in china. that provides confidence for the consumers to pick up demand. with that, you can see inflation rising. yvonne: we are going to leave it there. juliana lee from deutsche bank. the lines that are crossing here, more on these trade discussions between the u.s., china. katherine tai, the chief trade negotiator of the u.s., discusses the importance of the u.s.-china trade relationship. they discussed abide in's worker centric trade policy. and tai raised issues of concern, according to the u.s. they did say the talks were a
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candid exchange. we are not getting details on exactly what was discussed in terms of how detailed they were when it comes to the trade deal. i mentioned how the trade relationship is important and they look forward to future discussions. at least there is hope the discussions are still going on. you see the market moving on the positive headlines from the u.s. trade negotiator. you see the remember the surging -- the remimbi surging. we are also looking at what's to come with the discussions and whether we can see china for filthy commitments past during the phase one trade deal. they are not there yet, but have been ramping up imports. with covid, some plans have been delayed. a lot to look into, but we are
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back to the trade talks in our top stories. coming up, we take a look at the u.s. justice department, set to look into the market rattling meltdown of archie goes capital. this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> want to recap the lines from the u.s. trade negotiator katherine tai, her office saying these were candid exchanges with her counterpart in china. they did mention they wanted further collaboration. it seems we are getting more progress, that perhaps talks will be ongoing.
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we see a little movement in the markets, in particular when it comes to the renminbi, continuing to climb and holding to three year highs for the yuan. haslinda: constructive talks perhaps set the tone for future conversations between the two sides. this is the first conversation the two sides have had ins the biden administration came to power. they have emphasized trade relations are important. the vibe we are getting is positive. we are tracking the renminbi, currently dollar-yuan nearing the lowest in three years. analysts are expecting further yuan appreciation on the back of a pboc rating. we will keep tracking that currency and the rest as well. the justice department investigating the implosion of archie goes -- archegos capital
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management. su keenan joins us with the latest. what are we learning about the focus of the probe? su: bloomberg has learned that federal prosecutors are seeking information from banks that dealt with archegos. archegos capital blew up in late march, losing $20 billion in assets in two days after failing to meet margin calls. it was heavily leveraged in a handful of stocks and that forced banks to unload the position in trades that roiled the markets. some of the banks have received requests for information. it is unclear what potential violations or actual entities the authorities are looking at, but at this point authorities
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have not alleged that archegos or its banks have broken any laws in their dealings. however, the event has drawn criticism from regulators and scrutiny around the world. we know that credit suisse lost close to $5 billion. many of these banks lent money to the fund through their prime brokerage unit. yvonne: u.s. bank ceos are being grilled by lawmakers on capitol hill. his archegos being addressed? su: we know tuesday leading up to the hearing, elizabeth warren ripped the federal reserve for the oversight of credit suisse in the run-up to the archegos mess. as far as the wednesday hearing, archegos was not among the questions put to the six ceos.
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it is possible it will come up as the hearing continues on thursday, which is expected to be contentious, if not raucous. the ceos have gotten into several tens exchanges, one of the most tense between senator warren and j.p. morgan chase's jamie dimon. senator warren blasted j.p. morgan chase for taking fees on overdraft protections. she asked on camera in front of the hearing whether j.p. morgan would refund the money it took during the pandemic. he said clearly no but they were refunding to whoever asked. yvonne: bringing you live pictures out of seoul. the bank of korea governor speaking on the latest rate decision. they kept rates unchanged at a record low .5%, but they did
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upgrade the forecast for inflation and gdp growth this year. we will talk more about when this rate hike cycle could begin. korea ticks the boxes for normalization of policy here. tliv is where you will check out commentary from colleagues. you can also watch on live go as well. this is bloomberg. haslinda: for now here is the latest business flash headlines. an activist investor has won two seat on the exxon mobil board. it was established less than six months ago. exxon mobil has opposed the nominees in the lead up to the vote. the result sends a signal that institutional investors are ready to force corporate america to tackle climate change. royal dutch shell has been ordered to slash emissions
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harder and faster than planned in a ruling that could have consequences for the rest of the global fossil fuel industry. shell has plans to reduce global greenhouse gases by 20% within a decade, but the court says it needs to cut them by more than double that amount. yvonne: taking a look at markets, we are seeing a risk off move across the different asset classes, in particular equities. we are looking at tencent and the like after rising reported they are looking at a different financial holding. we are looking at prices that came out ahead of the ipo. and shall me -- and xiaomi profits growing. we are also watching the next digital media. the asset freeze has not had an impact on the business. we are looking at asian ship stocks after nvidia gave a strong forecast of its outlook.
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. coming up, more talk of commodities, focusing more on the china clampdown. tobin gorey joins us next. this is bloomberg. ♪ (announcer) do you want to reduce stress? shed pounds? do you want to flatten your stomach? do all that in just 10 minutes a day with aerotrainer, the total body fitness solution that uses its revolutionary ergonomic design to help you maintain comfortable, correct form.
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>> just want to bring you those live pictures. today's rate decision, unanimous, and the economic recovery has strengthened, but they did mention they will be maintaining an accommodative stance for a while. they need to be monitoring more the vaccine rollout in south
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korea and the economic situation, so perhaps not as hawkish a tone compared to what we heard yesterday, but nevertheless, we will bring you those pictures and headlines as they come through. vonnie: bloomberg has learned the european union is planning to hit belarus with a new round of sanctions over the forced grounding of a ryanair flight and the arrest of a journalist. we're told the sanctions could target the soil nutrients sent to improve crops. u.k. prime minister boris johnson faces a barrage of criticism from his former chief adviser during almost seven hours of testimony to mp's. dominic cummings laid out what he called the government's disastrous handling of the pandemic. he said johnson's poor
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leadership led to thousands of unnecessary deaths and called him unfit for the job. >> in any sensible, rational government, it is completely crazy that i should have been in such a senior position, in my personal opinion. it is completely crackers that someone like me should have been in there, the same as that boris johnson was in there. vonnie: new york is raffling off 50 4-year full tuition scholarships in a bid to get more teenagers to get vaccinated. teenagers who already received their first dose are also eligible.
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authorities have inspected the wreckage of a plane at a dutch airbase after it was shot down as it flew from amsterdam took a while of them poor. all 298 people on board were killed. as america starts deploying the last of its troops from afghanistan, the taliban is warning no u.s. bases will be allowed in the region. pakistan also vowing basis in its region will be for bitten -- pakistan also vowing bases in its region will be forbidden. global news 24 hours a day on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 1700 journalists -- 2700 journalists and analysts in 120 countries. >> let's talk commodities.
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prices have cooled as china stepped up its fight to bring them in. policymakers are turning to corn imports amid concern that prices have ballooned. china is showing that when you are the biggest buyer, you can throw a spanner in the works. >> that's quite right. like you said, they are the biggest buyer, and sometimes that can work against you. i think they will be discussing how they might reduce commodity costs. most people struggle to think how they might do that permanently or in a big way, but they are inserting some uncertainty.
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as you said, it is not a one-way but. haslinda: isn't it true that a correction is overdue anyways? prices keep going up, up, up. a correction perhaps is good. >> sometimes i guess it is. we are bullish about commodities. we think they should be out of the doldrums they have and in the last five or six years, but what is the right price? we are not really sure. we still have substantial risk in the fundamentals markets. there's a risk supply could tighten substantially more within this year into next year. the prices are high, which is on someone -- unsurprising in
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fundamental terms. i guess what you are alluding to is that as an argument. >> the latest on these import crackdowns, do you think it changes the supply and demand dynamics in any way? some people say it's one million tons, which is nothing compared to the 20 million china bought previously. how do you feel? >> they are kind of modest amounts. it's correct, it is not that large compared to what they have bought. our view is that china has pretty strong market feet, and i think that is a widespread view. part of it is because they do not have that much grown themselves this year, but because they have almost formally systemized the feeding
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of livestock. ivanka: we have seen conflicting messages from china -- yvonne: we have seen conflicting messages from china. i don't know if it is true or not, how are you going to have changes in the market if there was a ban? >> i guess you could be hedging those things in china. the fact is that, at least in those commodities and many others as well, china is the biggest player in the world. in terms of them having the effect on prices, they buy a lot. it is going to be what happens. the china -- the chinese economy is a fast-growing economy and
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uses lots of commodities. ultimately, it cannot pick the price it wants, but it can actually affect the pathways process, i think. the demand is there, and they are biting more than is really available -- sorry, they are buying a lot of what is available. haslinda: commodities are pretty susceptible to the boom and bust cycle. is this any different than what we saw back in 2008? does china change it materially? >> china is an impact story on two levels. on one level, its domestic economy, but also it has a great deal of influence around the
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world. we talk about a boom/bust cycle, but really, what happens, prices hitting eight dollar corn in 2012, more than paid for overseas expansion in global growing capacity in a lot of crops, corn included, and it knew need to expand at the time. our contention now as they are having a bit of bad luck in crops, but it is perhaps time when we need to see a bit more expansion in that capacity around the world. there is an ongoing growth in demand which china is an important part of that we think is starting to push up against capacity and strengths in
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agriculture. >> thank you very much for your insights. let's take a look at the governor some new lines just dropping. he said the bank of korea needs to address extraordinary steps in line with the economy, that growth may top forecasts under an optimistic scenario, so it still looks like by thinking about this recovery does have legs to it. the export surge. we have seen food inflation has also picked up in south korea. one of the first questions that was asked is why keep rates unchanged if you are upgrading your forecast? a lot of this based on the pandemic and the vaccination rollout in south korea, but they need to keep monitoring. he did mention the household at issue. this certainly highlights a big conundrum for the bank of korea, that they have to consider higher interest rates in order
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to tackle the possible debt issue, but it has to be a very balanced act for them. pretty much flat for the currency right now. we will bring you more updates from the conference as they come in. we have plenty more ahead. this is bloomberg. ♪
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haslinda: welcome back. our energy reporter joins us now. why was exxon mobil hit so hard? >> a couple of things happened. exxon lost these two seats. chevron holders voted against the board recommendation to have it cut emissions, and shall lost a court case, meaning it will have to cut emissions more than it wants. it is all adding up to basically big oil longtime climate denial kind of catching up with them. the big thing happening here is that companies like exxon and chevron, which use to at least make investors money, have been
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tanking over the last couple of years, so investors are no longer happy to just let them run as they want to. their tone is if you cannot return money to us making fossil fuels, than at least you better start thinking about the future of climate change more seriously than you have been. >> a tiny activist investor with 0.2% was able to secure two seats on the board, that says something. what does it mean broadly? >> i think it means a couple of different things. companies like shell have already gotten out in front of exxon and chevron in becoming more energy conscious, investing in offshore wind farms, looking toward more things that are carbon neutral and geo-carbon so they can fit into a carbon-neutral energy future. i think you're going to have to
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see exxon and chevron look a little more aggressively, and the other thing is going to be increasing pressure for investments, projects that produce a lot of co2 either on their own, companies are going to have to sell more of those assets to others, maybe saudi aramco for cmp c for national oil company type that does not have the same investment pressure in order to meet these emissions cut goals. haslinda: this could be a tipping point. will this have an impact on oil prices? >> this is a question the oil market has been wondering about the last couple of years. naturally, oil wells deplete over time, so you constantly have to invest in new ones to be able to make up for lost production and grow the production to meet growing demand. now you have more and more
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companies pulling out of investing more money in oil and gas. the question becomes if there will be enough new oil, will this be bullish for prices, and i think the jury is still out. there's a bigger question about how demand is going to come back after this long pandemics log -- pandemic slog and if investment vehicles are going to start chipping away faster than what we thought. long-term question, and the long-term answer is not sure yet. give on -- ivanka -- ivanka -- yvonne: it was not just exxon, but also chevron investors. >> there were times when it came up and freak only in discussions with investors. today, it comes up in every discussion. oftentimes, it is the first thing that comes up in a conversation, so i'm not
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surprised it is high on their minds. i meet with investors all year long, and this has been a regular topic we have been hearing about. you are right -- investors do want to see higher returns. our industry is one that has not been in favor with investors because our returns have not been as strong as they historically were, so they -- we have work to do. it's why i talked to a lot of people in just four words -- higher returns, lower carbon. investors say that is exactly right, you are hearing what we are saying. that's what we expect. haslinda: exxon mobil taken on by a tiny activist investor. they have lost two board seats if not three. do you worry it will go to the courts as well? >> i have not seen on the
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development that occurred today. i have been in a board meeting, but this is a very active environment we find ourselves in. there are lawsuits that have been filed on various aspects of climate around the world, and we don't believe that is a fruitful way to engage in dialogue on this issue. we think they generally distract companies from the important work, which is working on technologies, working on progress, taking action, and ultimately, the lawsuits have not proven to have much merit. i do not know how the suit in the netherlands today will play out, but we look for constructive engagement. we look to be challenged, and we are taking action. we intend to take more action. caroline: to be challenged by activist investors in particular, are they a writ to the business model in terms of
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oil and gas? >> i think activist investors like all investors want to be heard. they have a point of view. we have engaged with our investors all year long. we are listening. we are engaging. we are as transparent as we can be, and we just issued a very lengthy report on climate change, and our company's resilience in a variety of scenarios -- we do analysis under various carbon reduction scenarios to look at how our company would fare under those, so investors are focused on this, as we are. it is part of the environment today that are -- part of the environment today for companies that are providing this energy, and i believe our company is part of the solution. we have the technical capability, the engineering acumen, and the financial capacity to be part of the solution. haslinda: that was chevron's ceo
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speaking with bloomberg's caroline hyde. you can catch up with all our interviews on our function, bloomberg go. this is bloomberg. ♪
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yvonne: the trial of an imprisoned australian writer begins today in china. it will be held behind closed doors. reports saying even the australian ambassador to china has been keeping an eye on this trial. let's bring in paul allen for the latest on this. before we get to this trial, tell us about the background on this case and how it ties to the relations we have seen between canberra and beijing. paul: while here, he did write a lot of articles pushing for democratic reform and was known for criticizing the communist party for corruption and for its policies as well.
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he was taken off the plane in one show and has been in detention ever since. china has not explained how dr. yang committed espionage and given no evidence against nor for the charge, and in the current environment of strained relations, it is hard to escape the political dimension to this. human rights groups have called this an attack on freedom of expression. we see the australian ambassador approaching the courthouse today. he was denied entry, saying it was because of covert restrictions. that trial is going to happen with nobody present, not even family members allowed, and the criminal justice system, trying to have a 99% success rate. haslinda: what sort of assistance has australia been able to provide to dr. yang?
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and do we know anything about his health? paul: very little counselor assistance. we just saw the ambassador failing to gain access to the trial. before that, australian officials have not been able to access dr. yang, either, for the same source of reasons. reasons around coronavirus and also around national security. as for his health, he has been in prison now for 26 months. friends say he has had no access to a share or sunshine, and he is apparently extremely angry also that this trial will be conducted behind closed doors -- friends say he has had no access to fresh air or sunshine. he says there is nothing more liberating than having your worst fears realized and he does not have anymore. he says the values and beliefs he has shared with his readers are bigger than himself, so dr. yang remaining defiant, even as he faces this trial.
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yvonne: let's do a quick check on business flash headlines. revenue for the three months in march came in at 3.5 billion dollars. losses narrowed by 1/3.
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right now, finished at 1117 on the back of the be ok keeping rates unchanged. the yuan is in focus. we are already seeing strength in that currency today. take a look at where we are. cryptocurrencies, an asset class
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we have been watching all week long, all month long. we have the crypto index down by about 2%, and we have bitcoin bouncing off highs on the back of carl icahn's comments. stay with us. this is bloomberg. ♪
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