tv Bloomberg Markets Asia Bloomberg July 13, 2021 10:00pm-11:00pm EDT
what is on store for bank of america, city, and wells fargo. yvonne: equity markets holding. that is a good way to put it. inflation numbers are up. rbnz should at -- b out any moment. let's take a look at the cross asset management. losses --we have breaking news out of the central bank. go ahead. rpeorter: interest rate kept on hold and we are seeing at the moment, not knowing how much is being reduced. yvonne: it is going to be interesting because the market is pricing part -- quite a bit but today would not be the day they talk about it. they will talk about it in november when we could start about that reduction of monetary stimulus.
reaching a consensus on the bond policy concision. -- decision. monetary stimulus could be reduced. further comments there. dave, the market reaction, is there any? david: the new zealand dollar on a rocket. there we go. he will be taking some of the stimulus here. they will be halting asset purchases by july -- july 23, in a weeks time. no news on rate hikes. monetary stimulus could be reduced and they will discontinue. a little more details on that. when do they hike rates? if you ask td securities, it could come next month. we have priced an already november rates at 80%. that is the actual cash rate. 45 basis points.
an 80% chance that the rate kite -- rate hike comes november. the u.s. inflation story overnight. massive talk. way higher but even highest estimates. it takes you back to the 90's. is this going to be sustainable? what part is sustainable in do you by the dollar now? david: is this the shock and all? is not the same stock and all. -- shock and awe. the market is overheating but inflation numbers lend itself to what you're talking about with inflation in the u.s. you can point to certain parts of the basket being responsible. yvonne: used cars is one of the sectors worst hit by the pandemic. that continues to see prices rising but there is the stickier parts like the shelter costs,
rent, so perhaps there are some issues where you can't decipher whether it is transitory or persistent. more headaches for the fed leading up to the next meeting and the power testimony happening. -- powell testimony happening. we will talk with people about what they are saying about inflation debate. >> we see inflationary numbers coming through. >> the market will switch to worrying about inflation. >> inflation is front and center whether you are a bond or equity investors. >> the bond markets are sending a message that this is not a big deal and it is transitory. >> the increases are going faster for longer. >> i will not assume it is transitory. a large part of that will be passed on to consumers. >> prepare for the possibility bond markets are wrong. >> it will be with us through the better part of next year. >> this is not going to be music
to the fed's ears. >> it doesn't matter if we have strong growth. david: they're going to be ending this month. that is with the reduction of that stimulus. they're also saying it is more persistent inflation pressure building over time. how does that play into their whole narrative? low ifnlation and low rates will end. let's bring in fidelity ceo. how far is the rbnz ahead of the curve in terms of the cycle and how could the fed look at that? guest: what you're seeing through the natural bank new zealand and the perspective on
inflation, i think it represents the kind of think the central banks globally are going to have to mean into, which is that you are likely to see inflation over the medium-term continue to sort of surprise on the upside. i think what becomes the really interesting is whether folks are in persistent or transitory camp, they are focused on the actions of the central bank, especially in the u.s.. i think one perspective could be in terms of thinking about the outlook for inflation, the actions of the central bank, they have less impact than one might think. even if policy rates were to hike, would that change the outlook of prices in the economy? that is a concept i think you could challenge. david: you look at dave bullard. he is talking about tapering and saying he could do it now.
he could and did now. he is not a voting member on the fomc but he will be next year again. can say what he likes i suppose without being on board. is the time right? can we see that in the u.s., persistent inflation? mr. anand: absolutely. i think, you know, some of the factors that are going to cause inflation to be sort of more persistent and more present, and some weights haven't begun, you know, you haven't started to see infrastructure programs really start to kick off. you haven't started to see the very different way in which companies are going to be looking at their sort of working capital. i do think it could stimulate or incentivize the fed to act earlier. i do think whether they start earlier or later will have that
much impact on shaping how it looks for inflation. in the same way, that the connotative -- accommodative monetary policy only drove up prices in asset markets. yvonne: it raises the question of whether bond markets were breaking too soon. we saw breakevens up this -- year. worried about the whole inflation story. what does this mean for yields now? mr. anand: when you look at the bond markets, here is what the bond market is telling you. it is telling you inflation repressions are likely to be very modest. that the action of cycle banks -- central banks is likely to be referred -- deferred. that is one of the things that needs to inform your view as an investor. what is the narrative?
that is why we expect a stronger reaction from the bond markets, more pressure on the bond markets. if intellect inflation continues over the coming courses. yvonne: you mentioned in your notes about how the pandemic has had the three major shifts in the global economy. tell us where we are in the cycle and how do you best position for that when it comes to markets? is it time to lean toward -- i know you are shifting toward southeast asia. maybe away from the north asian types of economies and markets. what is the thinking? mr. anand: mr. anand: when you talk about the sort of shift we are kind of seeing in terms of the real economy, i would say the three main shifts we are seeing is this acceleration of digitization. i think that has been well discussed. the second is the extent to which sustainability and the focus on sustainability becoming central in terms of economics and government policy. the third really is the, the,
the the whole complexion of global growth is going to have a much greater sort of asia kind of component to it, so asia will continue to be the driver of global growth. i think what that really means for investors is that, you know, one of the things that it means is you are going to have probably better growth in the real economy, globally, you will have better growth from asia but you will have also better growth from the u.s. and europe, mainly driven by fiscal stimulus, answer to that extent, but has historically been a very narrowly midmarket were you priced very highly companies in growth and no grwth, we will see broader returns of the amount -- around the markets. investors will focus on lagging areas over the last 10 years. david: right. since you brought up 10 years, 10 years ago, this is hindsight
for us. like the tencent and alibaba, those were china consumer plays. they have become mega caps. that shift in the way the market values companies that will last and are sustainable, what metric are you guys using to determine which types of tech companies or biotech companies will tend to be your future tencent and future alibaba? mr. anand: david, one of the important points to bring up is that concept of what metrics look at. i think for the cycle in front of us, i think it is important for investors to really consider valuation and the margin of safety it offers. this is different in the last cycle. in the last cycle, assets were expensive and more expensive. assets that were cheap became cheaper. rather than thinking about this in a uniform sectoral way, you have to look at the fundamentals
of the business and put that against what we see in terms of the valuations. some of those large chinese internet stocks. because of some of the impact sentiment more recently, the valuations of those companies have come down a fair bit. they are still very robust businesses. in china, as we will see globally, they will face a high degree of scrutiny and that is again something we need to consider. david: great stuff, as always. looking forward to speaking with you. paras anand. fidelity international aipac cio. the other thing that might have, in from the radar is when they talk about rice's being unstable, that is according to the central bank. a full rate hike is pricing for
november. that is the hawkish stance. when you look at bond markets, yields on the way up in new zealand all the way to the 15's. hawkish stance out of the rbnz. reporter bloomberg learning the united states: has given an advisory for traveling. sources say that could impede beijing's ability to gain data. we are told the -- democrats have reached an agreement on a $3.5 trillion spending and tax plan. president biden's jobs and families initiative without republican support. senator schumer says it is part
of a two track process by which they will consider a 579 million -- billion dollar intern -- infrastructure bill. an economic rebound in singapore. this is weeks of viruses. gdp for the 3 month at the end of june contracting from 2%, a jump of 3%. it means year on year, gdp was up more than 14%. no bases during strict lockdown at the start of the pandemic. the covid lockdown has been extended until the end of july in australia. australia is a good city -- australia's biggest city is performing more -- reporting more covid cases. australia is the second vaccine rollout among countries on the oecd.
analyst estimates. second quarter revenue of jp morgan shows opportunity bounce with consumers emerging from pandemic lockdowns. >> house values are up your stock values are up. incomes are out. savings are up. the pandemic is in the rearview mirror. hopefully nothing gets worse. home prices, auto agencies, they could be much higher if supplies constraints go down. yvonne: it doesn't seem like the market, not as optimistic as jamie dimon himself. >> investors looking beyond this latest quarter which jamie dimon pointed out was the best quarter ever for jp morgan. similar to goldman, which had it second-biggest call, both
benefited from these extreme flurry of deals that offset the decline in trading. both banks saw the decline in currencies, fixed income, commodities, a decline of 45% from a year ago to the big boom to the bottom line from the pandemic-inspired trading frenzy is now over. loan growth is flat. let's listen to what jamie dimon said. that is inflation is here to stay. he says it is not transitory as the fed believes and that adds more complication. bank released 3 billion in long loss reserves. double what was respected. underwriting served 25%, boosting net income to $11.9 billion. expenses were up 4%. loan growth was flat.
goldman had an 83% gain. it helped its investment bank boost its numbers by 36% for the quarter. that is the good news. david: bank of america, citi, wells fargo --we will be looking at the same issues. su: it is a hard act to follow. two big banks that blew it out of the water and their stocks were lower. what investors are really looking for here is the driver. a lot of the big boosts to goldman and jp morgan chase was a one-off event, the return of loan-loss reserves. we know wells fargo is returning about almost half a billion from loan-loss reserves that it turned out were not needed. that was the big fear during the pandemic. what will drive growth going forward? wells fargo has a question about load demand. what is going to be sustainable?
m&a deals and credits that boosted the big banks and likely boosted some of the activity at bank of america and citi, those are not viewed as sustainable, a compelling story with the numbers will be needed. back to you. david: the white house refers to more u.s. companies on the risks of operating in hong kong. that is the biden -- as the biden administration doubles down on its tough on china stance. this is bloomberg. ♪
basiss points. yvonne: pretty hawkish comments coming from the rbnz. the one thing i thought of was it is the least regret. if they withdraw policy sooner than later. we expected they were going to break on change but the guy is going to come to reducing asset purchases, that will be the key focus on ethics traders. -- fx traders. david: let's have a look at what is going on with skirmishing between the u.s. and china. the u.s. is going to be warning american companies about operating in hong kong. the biden administration is going to tell these companies what? guest: the administration's warning about the risks in hong
kong. according to the u.s., they include the chinese government's ability to access data at the company store in hong kong. the administration's warning companies about the national security law, which they say is blurring, undermining the boundaries between hong kong and the rest of china. one other thing they are warning about is the risk of chinese law s that penalize companies that comply with anti-china sanctions. all those things combined, biden administration says, presents risk to american companies. yvonne: how does this fit more broadly into biden's china policy? everyone leading up to the elections thinking it might be different than what president trump had but it doesn't seem like it. david: you're right that ahead of the election, there were optimists among investors that
the biden administration it would take a different approach toward china. they are right in that we haven't seen things like sudden sanctions or sudden tariffs imposed on china. yvonne: or removed. david: but we haven't seen tariffs removed. that is one important thing. we have seen a lot of talk from tony blinken, janet yellen, talking to allies about having a united front against china. there has been a consensus in the u.s., from both the democrats and republicans, that a hard line on china is the way to go. yvonne: to the latest headlines, we are looking at bloomberg learning apple has asked to build as many as 90 million next-generation iphones this year. a sharp increase with 2020 shipments. apple has kept a consistent level of around 75 million units for a launch device. this year's update will be more incremental from the ipo 12,
focusing on display improvements and processor in camera. china's regulators crackdown on overseas listings. it filed to go public in the u.s. last month but is concerned about new roles from authorities in beijing and potential delays to its ipo. deliberations are ongoing and it could still proceed with the u.s. ipo. david: a brief look at the biggest movers. korea is on the back of a report of a jv. that is the story. biologics, 130% net income. getting a downgrade from citi and toho is out with good earnings out of tokyo, up 7%. uneventful morning session in tokyo. .2% to the downside.
david: welcome back to the show. 10:30 in the morning in hong kong. markets -- equity markets doing well. up 1% lower. rishaad: let's have a look at what is going on in the southeast asian markets. one of the big stories, vietnam. tanking day before yesterday. made a recovery before the end. 02 is -- hero to zero.
being one of the top equity markets in the first half of the year. turning into the world's worst performer amid the new wave of covid infections and further tightening in the curves. lockdowns taking place. investors fretting over the economic impact of covid, up-to-date, .2%. falling almost 9% since i record high on the second of july. -- since a record high since july. the second or third wave of the pandemic. likely lower economic growth outlook for moves against the virus. shrugging off the weaker gdp read we had earlier. we have a contraction quarter on quarter. that was a 2% contraction. 3% in the first quarter. 14% up from a year ago. yvonne: malaysia certainly the story of the political fallout.
covid cases hit a new record. let's take a look at some key stories we are watching out of southeast asia. in singapore, nexgen foods raised $20 million from investors, including the likes of jgb capital, to enter the u.s. market. in the philippines, a revised outlook from negative to stable. reflecting a rising economic risks from the pandemic. on the virus watch, singapore's karaoke clubs are becoming hotspots as cases jump. they are shutting down for some time. david: that will happen. are masks allowed? yvonne: it is hard to sing with a mask. david: and share mics. rishaad: it would probably improve my thinking. -- singing. david: that takes us into the broader virus story. malaysia has really come on. 11,000 new cases. that is a record. look at the commentary, it
doesn't look like it will be the least over the next one or two weeks before we start to see the curve flattening. we have put that together in the equity market, which has come under tremendous pressure. notwithstanding the political tension in malaysia leading to some of the factors. investors taking money off of the table when it comes to that. we will look at what happens. it should update. we do have the new number out of malaysia. certainly it is a worsening situation. yvonne: let's bring in our guests. malaysia has been under a hard lockdown since june 1. this is situation is getting worse. what gives? >> thank you for having me. malaysia has been struggling to -- malaysia containing this
recent outbreak that the health ministry says is driven by the emergence of the newest delta variant. them being in the second lockdown, since june 1, malaysia's cases topped a record 11,000 on tuesday, which shock a lot of the nation. the country said cases may climb in the coming weeks before stabilizing, because this variant is airborne and has a faster transmission. david: we know what the number is, 11,000. i think it is also worth noting that the situation is different, depending on what part of the country you look at. how dire is this situation, which includes where the capital is? >> 60% of all of the virus
cases. because of the surge of the virus cases, it has left hospitals there shot of icu beds sparse, medical equipment, staff, this is an area comprising of -- there have been numerous videos and posts circulating, in terms of staffing and resources, in response to help ministry, promising to increase bed capacity at hospitals and mobilizing resources, including thousands of health care workers. yvonne: thank you for the update. let's get to the first word news. rishaad: research supported by the national institutes of health saying people who received both doses of a messenger rna vaccine, like
moderna or pfizer, may not need the additional booster shot for years. they presented a strong persistent immune response against covid-19. there is a concern about possible new form or variants that may pose a problem. more than half of all adults in the european union are now fully vaccinated. that is according to the european commission president. she tweeted this news. an update has been given and delivered to vaccinate some 70% of adults. the health authority is analyzing data on a rare nerve disorder reported among a small group of recipients of the johnson & johnson vaccine. that after the u.s. added a warning label to that shot. the au ballooning past $2 trillion in the first three quarters of 2021. treasury department data shows the shortfall for june was 174 billion dollars as the government tried to stem the devastation caused either
pandemic. the congressional budget office saying for fiscal 2021, we will see a $3 trillion gap, even without additional spending. that is close to the record $3 trillion last year. jill biden will be off to tokyo for the opening ceremonies of the olympics, pressing on despite authorities closing events in the city amid the surge of covid-19 cases. all olympic events will be held without fans. japan declaring a fourth state of emergency that will run through august 22. turning to deadly protests in south africa following the jailing of the former president. they show few signs of letting up. the government has deployed soldiers to help police. hundreds of stores looted and major highways blocked. it accounts for about half of their economic output. 72 people thus far have been killed. that is a look at the first word news. yvonne: just crossing on the
terminal. breaking news. financial group to buy 5% stake in jeffries. about $380 million. they are going to invest that type of money here. strengthening the securities business in the u.s., and the dynamic environment for mergers and acquisitions. so they are focusing on connecting japanese companies to overseas counterparts. >> looking for yields and return of growth. i'm sure our friends -- in the same building looking at the story closely. remaining quite optimistic about the prospects for the chinese market in their investment. there major interests getting sideswiped out of the regulatory crackdowns. the state investor backing didi and ant group.
posted a 25% return in the latest fiscal year. we spoke with the joint head of the investment group. while they tell us they are optimistic over china. >> our portfolio in china stands up 27%, a large part of the portfolio. we still see plenty of opportunities in china. do remember that we invest according to the trends we have established for ourselves. when you look at trends like digitization, sustainable living, longer lifespan, or even the future of consumption, these are very prevalent in china. we believe there are still very early days. there will be plenty to go moving forward. >> to your point, in terms of market trends and themes, you are invested in didi and financial valuations plunging after the regulatory pressure, regulatory cramdown -- clampdown. how does it affect your appetite for chinese to?
-- chinese tech? >> at the end of the day, what drives us is the long-term outlook of the country we invest in, the companies and space they are in. regulations are what they are. not only the case in china. you see regulatory changes all over the world. we are used to that, and it is part of our exercises. we look at every risk, including regulation and many other aspects. we make a decision accordingly. as i mentioned the trends earlier, there is plenty of runway left in china around some of these trends. it will remain for us. >> many of you, chinese investment either listed in the u.s. or listing in the u.s., will the u.s. ipo route be less desirable from now on? >> if i were to give you an
answer on what we are seeing now, it is clearly a current concern for some companies as we have heard. fast forward what happens, nobody can tell you. the good thing is, in any way, there are different tools for chinese companies to list. it is not only necessary in the u.s. we don't see it as the only and most critical consideration for that. clearly, the tensions between the u.s. and china are prevalent amongst us. and we have to keep monitoring what happens. >> what is looking attractive in china? >> as i mentioned, anything related to trends. i can give you a few examples. even sustainability focus, you look at autonomous vehicle companies that provide software is, companies that provide drones, or water efficiencies and others, innovation and life
sciences. that's a big area for us. we are trying to tap on our network, a system of companies by trying to put companies together. we have an investment in a very large company in the u.s., we try to put it where the company in singapore, southeast asia, the conductivity is very important -- the connectivity is very important. yvonne: that was nagi hamiyeh. i guess a bullish take from what we heard of the likes of kathy wood and arc investment management. she is selling some of these chinese stocks. her hold on the innovation etf. she said it is time for the valuation reset looking at this is sector. david: it is a bit worrying when people start talking about the rating -- b rating. obviously, the investment horizon of kathy would and what
they are trying to do, compared to their competitors, might also be influencing their investment decisions. but with valuations where they are, people saying they are not cheap enough, it is probably worrying. rishaad: it is, because we have just seen a comeback. the short rally we have seen. people suggesting it could be the bottom, and ultimately -- we won't know. waiting in the fintech etf. remaining the same. there is a lot of stuff going on in the background. washington and beijing at loggerhead, and we also have the power and influence of the tech giants. the federal trade commission share poised to scrutinize tech giants. i believe that never before. already an outspoken critic of the power they wield. bloomberg's emily chang got us this profile.
>> lena con took the helm of the ftc, setting the stage for the showdown with washington and silicon valley. she's one of the most outspoken critics of big tech, which she says has gotten too big, and should face tough questions about its power and impact on democracy. before the ftc, she served as a company -- columbia law antitrust protester and advisor to the house judiciary subcommittee taking on antitrust issues. she is perhaps best known for her award-winning article titled "amazon antitrust paradox," calling for greater scrutiny on the e-commerce giant. all eyes are on how she put her views on big tech's so-called monopolistic practices to work. emily chang, bloomberg, san francisco. yvonne: this weekend, the full version of the show will be aired. a special redlines programming. we will focus on washington scrutiny on giants like facebook and alphabet. it airs friday night in the u.s. and saturday across europe and asia. david: one more in focus is new
zealand. the equity market, currency, bond market. coming up a little bit, in terms of the currency. a lot of strength still coming through. just very quickly, in terms of the pricing for future rate hikes, bloomberg terminal, let's get it up. we are now looking at 54, that is what the november implied view is. well beyond and well above a fall 25% basis -- 25 basis point hike. rishaad: let's have a look at what we've got coming up. looking at the aipac region. more domestic workers than anywhere else in the world. some of the worst laws to protect them. we talk to the international labor organization's anna olsen about its latest reports. that is on the way next.
leave entitlement or limits on their working time. yvonne: i think covid has only amplified some of these issues. let's bring in the lead author of the report, anna olsen, technical specialist at regional office for asia and pacific at the international labor organization. thanks for joining us. tell us how covid has worsened the working conditions of migrant workers, whether migrants or local, what has been the biggest change in their routine? >> it has broadly exasperated the conditions workers were already suffering. and unfortunately, domestic workers started as some of the most vulnerable workers and are merging into this as some of the most affected. we have seen from the philippines, vietnam, seriously more likely to lose their jobs. well over 70% affected by wage
and losses as early as july of last year. sadly, it increased, as well, violence against women, and domestic workers are also suffering within the home in which they work. unfortunately, covid, while shining a light on the importance of working at home, it also demonstrated how vulnerable domestic workers can be. rishaad: certainly we get nongovernmental organizations, which concur with you, but arr governmente -- are governments listening? are you getting any traction? >> i hope so. it has been 10 years since the adoption of the convention on domestic work, and i think the pandemic has shined a critical working condition -- critical look at working conditions and how essential services domestic workers provide. we hope the increased attention
on these issues, including -- could lead to serious and sustainable change to protect domestic workers and give them the decent work they deserve. david: where across asia is the problem most acute? >> unfortunately, the asia-pacific region is one of the worst performing regions when it comes to protecting the lives of domestic workers. 64% have been excluded from having even one day off. 61.5% fully excluded from labor law protections. 85% of domestic workers in the region remain in informal employment. a higher than almost all other regions across the world. so we have some work to do in the asia-pacific. hopefully we can have the ear of the right governments and policymakers to do so in the future. yvonne: do you think covid can
spark more action from governments? do you think domestic workers, everyday routines will change emerging out of this pandemic? will it be reverting back to the same old? >> we need to consider domestic violence as one of the critical sectors for the post-pandemic recovery. we have seen how essential the workers have been during the recovery. but the conditions of work we offer domestic work will also be a proxy for how well of an economic and employment shock, in terms of women who have been most affected by job loss during the pandemic. so i hope we as a region can see this as a positive part of this pandemic and the sector we have seen for the last eight months. rishaad: we see the pandemic worsen equality, particularly in india, the middle class shrinking.
people wondering whether it comes back as strongly. all of this with huge ramifications for what you are doing, as well. i'm talking about the workers in this part of the world. the thing is, does it dial back, or will it be something we have to live with and deal with, or not deal with, as the problem is? >> i think we need to start taking some decisive action to improve domestic workers and systems that would protect them, and avoid the will back you are alluding to. urgently representation in the labor force in different countries and it opens the door to social security protection, protection of working conditions, providing them with help and medical care, including vaccinations. i hope as we are considering what is essential in our society, domestic workers will
rishaad: the u.s. banks reporting -- second-quarter numbers from bank of america. citigroup, wells fargo,. fed chair jerome powell saying his monetary policy report before the house financial committee coming up as well. a guest we have coming up later, insight from the global steel industry with the chief executive of our's a lot. and -- also, the company is green energy transition and his outlook for oil. >> i think there a good chance oil prices will be robust and high over the coming years. there's a good possibility they will be volatile. we don't plan on them being high. we are opening a company resilient to a low price.
but i can assure you if they are high, we have a portfolio that will absolutely benefit from that. david: looking at thailand, which closed higher yesterday, see if it will follow the rest of the region. the big story has been the kiwi dollar. some yields moving up on back of the coming out. largely expected to be hawkish. not much in terms of that spectrum. it now brings to mind td securities -- november for the first rate hike of the rv and fat. yvonne: close to 1% moves in the kiwi dollar. the aussie qe also moving quite a bit. we weren't expecting that much, but questions on what it means for the bok. rishaad: what about inflation? this is something that will linger.
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>> from the heart of where innovation, money, and power collide in silicon valley and beyond. this is "bloomberg technology" with emily chang. emily: i am emily chang in san francisco. by now, pay later. it is not a new concept, but it is the latest push by apple to get users to use apple pay. how it will rival paypal and affirm. plus, arianna huffington