tv Bloomberg Surveillance Bloomberg August 5, 2021 6:00am-7:00am EDT
higher, it will just happen on the cyclical side. >> a pullback could cause volatility. >> the fed has been open about this, the fed will not be happy to see the 10 year approach 1%. >> our base case is they key up tapering, perhaps as early as the new meetings. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jon: here come the upgrades from new york city from our audience worldwide, good morning, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance" live on stevie -- on tv and radio. i'm jonathan ferro. equity futures up 13 on the s&p, we advance .3%. tom keene, goldman sachs taking into 4700 on the s&p to year-end to 4900 year-end 22. tom: august of 2021 to mark on a calendar and that is where everyone begins to game out to q3 and cute for -- and q4 for the following year. what is important as they
calculated 22 times forward earnings. that is a good round number. we have heard that from guests as well. it is an optimistic note. jon: 7% upside from here year-end to where we are. 11% year-end next year from where we are. this is deutsche bank, goldman, and we have ad upgrade after upgrade over the past week. blur talking about the potential of cutting the outlook for economic growth. tom: there's different views. tobias had a more cautious view. i thought the representative from wells fargo was brilliant with a more cautious view. this is -- what is driven by the facts, isn't that any different? i don't think so. for david kostin, the facts are earnings. jon: we will get more fed speak later. lisa, with my producer jamie, we are climbing the wall at 1:00. tom: you have a producer? jon: you don't have a producer? lisa: i have a producer.
climbing the wall of worry especially as you get the david kostin type because at 4900 at the end of next year, if you have faith equity markets are going to continue to rally, why not buy every dip and why do we even have dips? we don't because everybody is looking toward time when it would be better for these companies. jon: pushing hide this morning come up 13 on the s&p. it lets give you the price action. your s&p 500, softer than yesterday's session. today, firmer and higher by .3%. bond market, yields unchanged, 1.1819 on a ten-year. adp report was soft. then vice chair clarity came out. we need to talk about that ism. that was the story at 10:00 a.m. eastern, at least for me, it did not get enough coverage. tom: i agree with that. it is real volatility in the limits paper of the system, the 10 year yield. they're going both ways. i am looking at a vix 17.46
which brushes off richard clarida do. then a swiss 20 year, which i featured in the 5:00 hour, and you tell me. jon: we are not doing much in the fx market. your euro is 1.1835. lisa: there's a consistent theme of pound a strength and we have seen this as the vaccination rate gets on track and as the recovery gains esteem. it will be interesting to see how it's inflected in the banks of england rate decision. we are not exciting a policy change in any material way, at least on the headline rate. we will be getting press medications of how they taper their bond -- mitigations of how they taper their bond guidance and how tapered rates could go. i'm sure you will go later on into this and the show. 830 a.m. time, jobless claims, these are noisy numbers. market bridges and pins look for any clues for the u.s. labor
market because you have rich clarity yesterday coming out and saying basically this is the metric to look for. he does see progress made enough and is consistent enough with potentially raising rates as early as 2023. interesting to me he is not divorcing rate hikes from tapering pace. this was telling. 3:00 p.m., president biden is calling for half the vehicles sold in the united states to be emission free by the end of the decade. i want to see what policy requirements will take from the united states, what charging stations, while infrastructure keeps planning to support this, because without that, it is unclear how this could potentially be achieved. jon: you are not the first and will not be the last call clara to alone. a lot of people -- i have done that too. maybe there's something in there. on who the fed chair may be should be. we can have that conversation later.
if you are 100% or 90% confident that you know what state the u.s. economy will be in this time next year, you are smarter than i am. if you know who will be this fed chair and vice chair and a years time, likewise. -- in years time, likewise. tom: we seen it all through the week, and it feels like confusing monday, tuesday, wednesday, thursday as well. as claire and i mentioned yesterday, everyone look at the data and wait for the data. jon: we are looking for a template to bring us comfort. can we look to the u.k. for that? let's bring in the founder and ceo. many people are looking to the u.k. including morgan stanley and saying that's a decent template for what we might experience here in the united states with the spread of the delta variant. do you think that's a good template? >> i think we can learn a lot from the u.k. because that is where the delta spread first in 9:00 a.m. country.
the big lesson from the u.k. here is that we had a big change in terms of how many people [indiscernible] we can see across europe, holland, denmark, all these countries that had a spike over the last months, we didn't see near the same pressure. that's an important lesson. so far the data in the u.s. is a little bit less convincing than the data we have seen from europe. there are decent hotspots, so we think over the next couple weeks we will see that divergence with cases perhaps rising still, but i don't think the harsh pressure will be the same because a lot of people have been vaccinated, though it is different from state to state. jon: i wonder what that means for your market call, how you push that through the fx market. jens: i think this wave is very different. i think the threshold for
lockdowns in the u.s. is very high. you can see it in the states that previously have been aggressive in terms of taking restrictive measures of being much more cautious now -- measures are being much more cautious now. and i think rightly so. i think we have a lot of people vaccinated and where vaccines are freely available to everybody. we are also seeing an interesting dynamic where a lot of the steps aim that incentivize people to go get vaccinated and vaccination rates are coming up in florida and other states where people see the risk rising. so i think we should not expect lockdowns in the u.s.. that said, psychology is still impacted. companies are going to delay their full return to the office, a big event such as the auto show in new york are being canceled or delayed. there will be an impact but most of the impact will be from self policing.
that will take some steam out of the service sector recovery. lisa: can you talk about what you call a reverse clip and how this feeds into a stronger emergency market comp likes. jens: we have been talking about this for several months and it is kicking into the data. what we mean by reverse cliff's we have been waiting for vaccines and for the supply to pick up and supply is exploding. exploding for two reasons, production is ramping up and demand from the previous biggest users of vaccines, the u.s. and eu, is coming down. -- down from the peak levels that we saw in april/may. so we have bigger production and less demand from the initial users. that means a reverse cliff a fact, much more supply for em. we can see it in places like korea, australia, so forth, japan. they are suddenly getting the
ability to vaccinate fast. that will have a big impact. it's not like it will have an impact on the outlook tomorrow, but in two months time, the situation will look very different. tom: we got time for one more question. frame how you make a civic room call right now in fx. jens: so i think the real challenge in terms of economic management around the pandemic is the countries that have elimination strategy, they are incredibly volatile now. delta is hard to contain and the countries that have had elimination strategy or something that looks like that, australia, china, they have a real challenge on their hands for the next couple months. it's different for the countries that have learned to live with the virus to some degree already , but for the one thing need to go into lockdown, those are the ones i can ca significant -- see significant economic
damage. china, it is probably the worst way they've had since the original wave. jon: it's good to catch up. jens nordvig, founder and ceo of exante data. lisa, i know you are watching the china story. that is the one to watch, zero-tolerance as he pointed out. a look at the restrictions coming through, the beijing curve, hong kong region now imposing a quarantine for people who come from the mainland into hong kong. those are things that are starting to build over the last week. lisa: one of the big unknowns is how effective the chinese vaccines are, particularly with delta but in general. we are not getting clean date on that. a lot of journalists have been expelled by their visas not renewed. we don't have a lot of on the ground reporting and the official tallies are low and it comes to absolute number of cases diagnosed. but this is the key question, how much is this preventative and how much is this the delta variant gaining steam and how much it is spreading and causing
economic and social damage? jon: the elimination strategy boggles the mind, especially with live in a place like the united states and you hear their amount of cases it takes to restrict movements in a place like china. we are talking about more than 500 cases scattered across half the country. it's a very different tolerance level in places like china, australia, compared to say the united states in u.k.. tom: it is more holistic there. i looked at the difference between mississippi and massachusetts hospitalizations today, what we have never seen since the beginning of this natural disaster. jon: i think it's safe to say more than 500 and places. lisa: yeah, it's not funny but -- tom: why did we talk about harry king? i need a producer. can i get a producer, please? john, i need a producer. jon: 1.1819.
from new york city this morning, good morning. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. president biden is laying out his gold today, half of all vehicles sold in the u.s. to be commission free by the end of the decade. it can only be achieved with a bigger government investment in charging stations and other infrastructure. the biden administration approved its sale to taiwan calling the selling [indiscernible] along with kids to add gps to the cells the vehicles fire. the deal is almost certain to be denounced china. china has imposed new travel and movement restrictions in an attempt to stop the delta variant. there have been more than 500 cases so far. public transport and taxi services or curtailed on a 144 of the worst hit areas
nationwide. in beijing, so usage was limited. boris johnson is calling foreign investment of big bang to drive the recovery from the pandemic. he is urging institutional investors to put hundreds of billions of pounds into bigger assets. his language echoed margaret thatcher's deregulation of finance and made europe the financial hub. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on "bloomberg quicktake," powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i am ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪ am ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪
i think this weekend is likely to see us improve the debate and voting on this measure as soon as the weekend, slated this monday. jon: dick durbin there. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. hitting the price action in your equity market on the s&p 500. futures up 12 and we advance by about .3 percent. david kostin in the team raising their price target to 4700 from 4300 for year. into the bond markets, yields unchanged, euro-dollar doing not a lot, 1.1842. positive 0.04%. it claims up two hours and 12 minutes away. tom: important after the tough adp number. i want to point out the vix is constructive for the bulls. as you well know, and this is a point of massive argument here at team surveillance, amory harden moving from london to
washington, it has been a strain, the shift from -- tea is horrible, garbage water, and she has coffee to this morning because she has been reading over 250 infrastructure amendments. how do the elite on capitol hill get through 250 plus infrastructure amendments? >> not all of them will hit the floor but there are certain ones we should be paying attention to, especially today, one on cryptocurrencies likely to go ahead on terms of a vote on that amendment and that is about the date these cryptocurrencies traders or miners need to give to the irs. the other one which we don't know when it will be voted on yet, but something to watch because there is negotiations at the white house, is left over covid spending. much can states use that money toward infrastructure and potentially 25% more if there's a waiver from the white house. i don't think we will see all 250 odds of these. there is a website that tracks
the mind yesterday it was down. i think a lot of people are refreshing it. we are likely going to see a potential final vote on this this weekend or monday. tom: do you listen to this as a so up because it has to go to the house or is this going to be an important monday morning? annmarie: i think it's important because i want to see whether senator mitch mcconnell backs this legislation. he did back it in terms of a procedural vote to get it to the floor, but is he going to back it in terms of moving it and cementing this as legislation? which is likely going to be very much so something important for the biden administration. this is definitely going to help president biden in terms of his economic agenda. the last two administrations were not able to do an infrastructure package. it will be interesting to see who says yes on this vote. jon: indulge me for this. senator warren speaking to david westin yesterday and said the following, my concern is that over and over again, he has weakened the regulation here, speaking about chairman powell.
need someone that understands and uses the tools to keep our economy safe. it lets not forget 2008. it was senator warren taking a swing at jay powell? lisa: yes. i think that could be a clear message. but also backing the next fed chair, that was a clear message. jon: getting more interesting. what is the taken d.c. about this? annmarie: we had still -- we are still waiting. it has been months from the white house on what will happen when fed chair jerome powell's 10 year expires, the term expires in february. this is really the divide of the democratic party. many say why change the horse in the middle of the race, many people agree fed chair jerome powell has done a good job guide in the country economically, the monetary policy through the pandemic, but at the same time, this is a chance for the biden administration to reshape what the chair, what the entire really bored of the fed looks like and potentially a nod to
progressive left. you could see more pix that represent america, little more diversity. lisa: and talking about issues between the democratic party, i want to veer over to new york state for a moment. andrew cuomo, the governor, has come under a lot of calls to resign following sexual harassment claims and he has been very quiet. what is the latest? how much are people talking about in the lease -- about that in d.c.? annmarie: people are talking about it in a sense that every democratic leader in washington, d.c., including the president of the united states from the east wing, asking the governor of new york to resign and step down. even governor cuomo's most staunch ally, the head of the democratic party in new york, who has backed him and said it is time to resign. what comes next, people in d.c. are curious. the democratic party hears
backing his resignation. what comes next remains in the control of the new york assembly, and they said they will expedite impeachment process. lisa: is there any national significance of him resigning or not resigning in the pressure? annmarie: i think the national significance is potentially because new york obviously is a powerhouse in terms of the economic growth of the united states, also the work he has done in the pandemic. we should not forget cuomo is under another investigation when it comes to the pandemic, the handling of him and his administration when it comes to nursing homes. jon: annmarie hordern on important points, thank you. back to chairman powell and how we reshape this federal reserve. i was thinking about this yesterday evening. tom, let's continue. in football, you don't make substitutions when you are defending the set piece. that is rookie manager stuff. most people that follow the game understand that. a really important turn in
policy, doesn't make sense to change the chairman of the federal reserve, considering where we might be in the next 12 months? tom: most including let's say liberal economists would say you are 100% correct, but so important with chairman powell is the change factor over 5, 10, 20 meanings and everyone agrees he has improved in conveying the message announced by clarity yesterday. not only do you have what you are talking about what you have a guy who has the wind behind him and seems to be doing better. jon: it depends who replaces him. i think most people would agree -- is the brains behind the market. i don't know many people who would bat an eyelid if chairman powell became chair brainard. to make change at this point the cycle is important. this is a cycle so finely balanced that opinions are miles away from each other right now in this market. to make the change at the top of the central bank, that's a big issue. lisa: the indication would be
tighter financial regulation, tighter oversight of the banks. that seems to be what lael brainard distinguishes herself from chair powell, and that is the main distinguishing feature senator one was talking about. is senator warren indicative of the mainstream democratic view? i don't know how much she is to parting from president biden. jon: in addition, do you want to spend your political capital trying to get someone else nominated through the senate? over financial regulation? is that a hub winner for the electorate --the financial regulation? lisa: i will not find personally but most analysts expect chair powell will remain chair powell next year in the year after that. the uncertainty i wonder what kind of premium you place on this. how do you trade on the fact there could be a change in lagarde at the top of the fed? jon: futures up on the s&p 500, up nine, advancing .2% on the s&p 500. yields are unchanged at 1.1786
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jon: live from new york city, this is "bloomberg surveillance." here is the price action this thursday morning. we advanced 5.2% on the s&p, nasdaq up .2%. we will touch on that on the program later. equity futures on the russell positive .2% as well. this morning from goldman, goldman at 4700 year-end, 4300 with the meat -- was the median price target but the forecast keeps edging higher. get to the bond market, twos, tens, 30's. the range went down to 112 briefly and took a look at 120 on the upper end. right now, 1.1786. a lot of talk about vice chair clara to, and the real one for
me, a really hot ism and all of that talk about growth, that looked tremendous. restrictions, turning to come through. there is an elimination strategy in place, doesn't take many cases to build those restrictions, but look at the price action here, year to date, your averages -- we are 6.4 618 on china. ozzie stronger in the face of all of this. i know it has had weakness, and copper is down only down .25%. there's a really threat -- a real threat to economic growth in china but the proxies in the market that would pick that up, they started moving months ago. this morning, i don't see much movement at all. tom: the metric for those keeping scores under 6%. we have an important guest but we have to get to this headline
because it is important to what jon ferro was saying about china. moderna out with a 93% vaccine efficacy. important to see that out six months. what is so important is what we heard from johns hopkins two days ago, in their opinion, this is dr. breyer, if it is not pfizer, if it is it moderna, don't do it. that's what we need. lisa: the idea not all vaccines are equal and some are more efficacy -- efficacious after a long period of time. the question, will boosters be necessary? if these vaccines are still completely effective, 93 percent efficacy seems effective after six months, does this negate the near term needed for boosters and what does that do for the possibility of some of these pharma companies but in general how secure doesn't give the recovery in terms of footing? tom: moderna managing the message with huge revenue and profit growth. i now, a joy after clara and before this important labor
report, the gentleman who restructured our knowledge of wages 20 years ago, david blanchflower is with dartmouth, professor of economics, always controversial, his public service to his united kingdom years ago. professor, do you see any indication of wage growth or wage inflation i should say with the nascent inflation we see? >> the measured wage growth in many countries is really high. in the u.k., the latest numbers is over 8% but you should not believe that. the reason is because we have got -- first of all, you have the base effect. secondly, the big chunk of the weight distribution at the bottom that has dropped out. so it itself is not believable. so really the question is what is happening to wages, so compensations -- compensation numbers in the u.s., i think the answer is wage growth is benign everywhere.
looking at settlements in the u.k. and there's a blog, a white house blog, saying every expectation wage growth will go negative shortly. i don't know whether that is true, but it seems easy to believe wage growth is strong at all. there is bottlenecks and shortages. this is a shortage and you raise the price. we have not seen lots of evidence of that. we are in adjustment mode, mismatch mode, their job -- jobs in some places where work is available, does seem at the moment that we should see wage growth as a big problem. tom: how do central bankers make a strategic adjustment? do they take an average of three to five meetings or can one labor report like we see here tomorrow really change the behavior and belief? david: i think that is a great question.
i said rates 36 times in my view was always what essentially will happen in two years time and is there anything that has come in the last four weeks after the prior meeting that changes my view? that is the situation. one piece of data, i heard a governor this week say what happens in the next two meetings is crucial. really? that seems most unlikely. i think the answer is in this world of great uncertainty, if you are pushed by what happens in one or two meetings, you have not got the plot. what is going to happen in two years time, there's a small change in inflation or small change in the labor market report, doesn't fundamentally affect what will happen in two years time? if it does, you are not doing it right. i think one meeting in this world is not going to tell you much. there is enormous uncertainty. you don't know how much -- you
don't know what will happen to the path of the vaccine, you don't know what will happen in long term change in behavior, we really don't know. i had fed governors say silly things, to what extent does one report change what you think is going to happen in two years time? temporary changes inflation today are likely to have no effect in two years time and that seems like the right attitude. how is it affecting two years down the line fed policy, bank of england policy, take the time to have an effect. we have heard silly stuff from governors and bank presidents and people around the world in this very uncertain time. jon: i think we understand your position. let's talk about the asset purchase program. michael mckee, a good friend and colleague, asking some version of the same question, which is
what can we get for 120 billion dollars per month in asset purchases that we cannot get for 60, 50, 40, maybe we can't get for 10? david: well less than what we originally got but monetary tightening is monetary tightening. if you go from you are buying 10 million per month and move to $5 billion per month, that is monetary tightening. that is my opinion but i don't think that's an opinion in terms of monetary policy has an effect 18 months to two years down the road, and any economy that is adjusting, you need to help it to adjust. so more is better, less is worse, so i think marginal things are impacted, but a small change downwards is tightening in an economy that is trying to recover.
so the answer is maybe not a lot but why would you -- then how hard would you like me to kick you? you say i would like you to not to not kick me at all. lisa: there is a question about how much this is affecting one of the key metrics that the fed and other economists are looking at, the participation rate in the u.s. labor market. stubbornly low, 7 million jobs have still not gotten back online since the pandemic really began. how much can fed policy at this point really affect what has been a downward trend in the participation rate in the united states over the past three to four decades? david: i think fed policy has been responsible in many ways for the decline. i think it tells the economy basically have policy to tights. the comparison you want to draw, let's take the participation rate or unemployment rate and compare to everywhere else. if you look in 2000 and you go to the u.k., you compare the
u.k.'s participation rate with what it is in 2000 and it is higher. in the u.s., it is about five points lower. what explains that? it has nothing to do with aging as some people have argued but that is the same everywhere, nothing to do with technology, so the probability is the fiscal and monetary policy have been too tight and there have been to few incentives for people to go to work. the answer is the fed can have an effect on it but we have to try to think about why is it that employment rates and participation rates in the u.s. have declined whereas basically every other country in the world, including italy, france, countries that have had high unemployment rates had the opposite. zoomable he it has something to do with incentives to work and fed policy being too tight and fed policy since 2015 have had a major impact on participation rate. so i think this looks like major error on the part of
policymakers. it is nothing to do with anything else. jon: the rarely outspoken david blanchflower of dartmouth. good to catch up with you. good to hear from you, buddy. that's to to on the eyes some out from yesterday. we want to get to that industry comments. anecdote but i think it speaks to what we talk about every day. the situation with demand continues to outstrip supply. "costs have risen dramatically in the last 45 days, labor shortage continues, increased pay but shortage continued, additional delays." you see that commentary everywhere you look. tom: even with what you just said it is dated. even the ism survey to me is dated, so much has moved in the last week, and i would use the proxy as the pandemic industry, air travel in this nation. i had a four hour wait on american airlines yesterday. that is a massive dislocation of demand for air travel versus what they can deliver and
imagine what it is like south where you get series hospitalization numbers. jon: are there any signs anytime soon supply issues and constraints will heal? lisa: it is unclear, however in spite of this it is worth noting and in spite of the increase of delta variance, we did see a record growth in this services data, so just to give you that sends. jon: really hot? lisa: even though we had all of those other caveats. jon: that has to be the real story behind the pub in yield yesterday talking to vice chair clarinet. lisa: you put those two things together, how do you parse them out? tom: i was in the surveillance nap. jon: i know exactly where you were. lisa: nap. jon: right, nap. your equity market up nine on the s&p 500. we advance .2%. this is bloomberg. ♪
ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. jp morgan is chasing a bitcoin fun to wealthy clients. customers of jp morgan personal bank -- it is an alternative asset manager. they say they are no investments from clients yet. landlords have gone to court to challenge president biden's extension of the coronavirus eviction moratorium. the alabama association of realtors said the move goes against a ruling by the u.s. supreme court last month. the president warned extension could be a challenge and urged lawmakers to come up with their own. two senators proposed using unspent state covid eight funds on infrastructure. john cornyn and democratic senator alex padilla are bargaining with the white house. if they can make a deal, it could free up billions of federal dollars for states.
new york governor andrew cuomo is struggling to hang onto power. he said yesterday, a day after the state attorney general released a report outlining 11 cases of harassment towards women. he has denied he will step down despite calls from former allies urging him to quit. a barbecue grill maker cut the size of its ipo in half and shares below marketed range. the company raised 250 million dollars and has a market value of less than $4 billion. it has been majority by capital partners. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on "bloomberg quicktake," powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪
will move to a broader base lockdown, so that is not part of our forecast. jon: the merck cfo there. alongside tom keene lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. here is price action this thursday morning. your equity market pushing higher by 10 points on the s&p. we are just off session highs. 118 into jobless claims later this morning. outside of that into the effects market, euro-dollar unchanged at 1.1841. crude back to 68.23. call it 68.22 on wti. positive about .1% on the session. news from a dharna, they say it's covid-19 remained 93% effective through six months after the second shot. just an update on the efficacy six months after the second shot from a dharna. the number is 93%. tom: we are learning as we go. what i'm hearing from so many people anecdotally, thank you
for tweets and emails, we love getting them, is that you really like we talked to experts on your fears of the variance -- experts. on the fears of the variance, a doctor, one of the leading protein chemists. gigi, i will cut to the chase. we will not make this limiters 101. there is delta variant, lambda variant, and the spike protein. what do our listeners and viewers need to fear? >> they don't need to fear variants. they are not magic. from a broader perspective, from public health, these variants are making the disease harder to end, making the pandemic art at the end -- pandemic harder to end. although the things you can do for delta, all of the things you should have been doing for
delta, they still work. you need to get vaccinated, use a mask in areas of high transmission, really pay attention to air quality, get hepa filtration devices for classrooms and public spaces, and you should be ok. tom: within the spike, and let's not get into dna, mrna, and the rest of it, very fancy greek letters of your world, do the vaccines we have now, do they have a confidence to carry over to these other variants? or should we worry about it like we worry about like staphylococcus in the bacterial world? >> rights. it is a concern but it is not something we have seen yet, so people don't need to worry that their vaccines are not effective. what we are seeing right now is there might be some -- fewer antibody responses from one variant to another, but the
vaccines are good. your immune system is a little more complicated than just one way of measuring it, and your immune system, we are evolved creatures going to war against infectious diseases for a long time, so we will be ok as long as you get the vaccine and if we need to have an updated one, that will happen at some point in the future. but things look good in the future. lisa: we are evolved creatures, i like that. some of us are. doctor, there is a question about the booster shots because as we hear from a dharna, there vaccine remains effective six months after the second shots. the idea of 93% efficacy basically being the same as initially. does this basically remove the need for near-term boosters and lengthen the recovery time we could potentially have economically and socially? >> just to clarify, they saw the efficacy six months out. that does not mean the vaccine only lasts for six months. think the vaccines last potentially for years before you
might need a booster. and yes, it probably means for most people they will not need a booster. i think most people are thinking boosters might be necessary or probably will be necessary for people who have immunocompromised physicians -- conditions like they might have had a liver transplant or they are very elderly or have some other condition that is going to lead to them needing to have a booster shot. lisa: that is good news. on the bad news, vaccine has not prevented the spread of the delta variant. is it a futile goal to eliminate the circulation entirely of these viruses? >> we are not -- any talk of eradication, put that out of your mind. it is not going to happen. this is a virus that is very -- it is called a generalist virus, infecting other animals, people have gotten infected from animals, from mank and back, and
it has probably gone to pets and back too, but we have not seen that yet. that is not going to happen, but we can make it something that is not going to cause people to go to the hospital and that is really what we need to be focused on. we need to prevent mortality. tom: jonathan ferro is focused on china, the dynamics of the pandemic in china and we have had reports of experts that this time is different. how do you interpret the sides -- size, scope, scale of china and their ability to diminish hospitalizations and deaths? >> china has some ability to move in different directions and require things other places do not but humans are the same everywhere and i think people have a natural tendency to congregate, so that will be a challenge in combating any infectious disease. -- disease that has passed from
person to person. it can be counterproductive if you are not fully adding all of the information you need. but yes, this variant isdefinitn others because people have a lot more virus in their nose and they are breathing more out, and they are infectious for longer. so that his wife will be a challenge even for countries that have done well with the disease so far. jon: always enjoy catching up with you. doctor, senior scholar at johns hopkins center for health security at the bloomberg school of public health. moderna in the last 30 minutes, saying it's covid-19 vaccine remains 93% effective through the six months after the second shot. that stock, a peer play on this mrna technology, that stock is up more than 300% year to date after more than 400% gains last year. the run on this name has been unreal over the last several years. tom: they are managing this. for those of you on radio, it is
simple, we get into february, march, and june we begin a moonshot, hire from call at 100 up to 450. they've got to manage the capitalistic and share return message here with the medical immediacy. they are all do this, particularly pfizer and moderna. jon: i like that phrase. i think that's the appropriate phrase for stock up almost 2000% over the lisa: lisa: last several years. lisa:lisa: isn't that the story of pharmaceutical stocks in general? they put a lot of money into research and this one was mrna research that paid huge dividends and improved its use case in a mass, very public stage. this to me is sort of the dream case for a biofarma company. jon: stocks down by 1.2% in the premarket. i'm sure that will not keep you away tonight after the story of the year today to gain of more than 300%. your broader equity market looks like this, up eight on the s&p, advancing point point -- .2%.
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♪ >> over the next 10 years we will have a recession, and earnings often drop 30%. >> a pullback in yields could cause some of that volatility. >> the fed has not spoken about this, but they will not be happy to see the 10 year approaching 1%. >> our base case is that they too off tapering perhaps as november -- they tee off tapering perhaps as early as the november meeting. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: it is payrolls eve. for our audience worldwide, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance. " alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. your equity futures up nine. tom: what is really important as
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