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tv   Bloomberg Markets  Bloomberg  August 12, 2021 1:00pm-2:00pm EDT

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when classrooms reopen next month. she tells nbc that she is meeting with the state health commissioner to discuss the issue. local will take over at the end of the month following the resignation of andrew cuomo over a sexual harassment scandal .global news 24 hours a day, houck will also says she intends to run in the 2022 governor's race. covid-19 is raging at a disaster level in tokyo. that today from a member of the government advisory panel who told the tokyo governor it is impossible to control the spread of covid in the capital. officials are considering whether to extend a state of emergency in the city. some experts say the government sent mixed messages about the seriousness of the pandemic by allowing the olympics to go on. the italian island of sicily may have just smashed continental europe's heat record. officials say temperatures reached 119.8 degrees fahrenheit
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wednesday. that would top the record set in athens in 1977, according to the world meteorological data. the extreme heat is making it extremely tough on firefighters who continue to battle blazes in sicily. global news 24 hours a day, on-air, and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i'm mark crumpton. this is bloomberg. >> it is 1:00 in new york, 7:00 in berlin and 1:00 a.m. in hong , kong. i'm matt miller. welcome to bloomberg markets. here are the top stories we are following on the bloomberg and from around the world.
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after yesterday's record-breaking sale of 10 year notes. the bar is high. we will also speak to the ceo of vici properties as they make a $17 billion bet on the las vegas strip. edward pitoniak discusses the deal for mgm growth properties. later this hour, volvo electric battery trucks are hitting the streets in new york. we will discuss the move with volvo north america president peter voorhoeve. we are at yet another record high in terms of equities. the broader s&p index at 4451. it should be noted, the dow is actually down a little bit. in broad measure of stocks is rising as the dow jones industrial average falls. not very much movement on either direction. the 10-year yield at 1.37.
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it did fall yesterday after the auction. awaiting results from the 30-year auction right now. the bloomberg dollar index. crude oil unchanged in new york. i think the crude oil story is one of the most interesting stories out there. on the one hand, you have the u.s. president calling for opec to pull more oil out of the ground. on the other hand, you have the iea saying demand will falter. we are getting the 30-year bond results right now, drawing 2.04%. u.s. awarding 60.7 percent of those 30-year bonds to indirect bidders. the eye-catching figure yesterday on the 10 year auction was that more than 70% of that auction went to indirect
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bidders, considered a proxy of foreign central bank buying. with us for reaction is ira jers ey, chief of rates. what do you think about the results that we are looking at right now on the 30-year auction? ira: it wasn't ok auction. the yield was a little bit higher than the market was expecting at 1:00. indirects are not necessarily foreigners. over the last three years, most indirects have been domestic investors. we have to put that in context. matt: looking at the story that we had yesterday from christine and james saying it is widely assumed to at least be a proxy for foreign central bank purpose -- purchases. that was a 70.2 percent share
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going to indirect bidders. they say that is an unprecedented level. are you saying that we also see the u.s. central banks going into this? who else could it be? ira: it is not the federal reserve, basically pension funds and the likes of mutual funds, other investors domestically that have been taking a bulk of this. were foreign investors involved? yes, they were. they were probably today, too. keep in mind, over the last number of years, we have seen domestic investors driving the market more than you might think. we don't get the data for another two weeks to see who went into yesterday's auction, but the assumption has to be it was increased by everybody, domestic and foreign. matt: when we look at today's auction and i pull up the headlines by looking at nipre of
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the treasury sticker, you see the rate.a little higher than before the auction. we look at the amount that is going to primary dealers, 18.3%. the amount going to direct bidders, 21%. indirect bidders. what do you think is the most important number to look at when trying to assess what is happening in auction? ira: the big one is the primary dealers. the fact that the primary dealers got 18.3%, that is not a crazy high number. that is less than they received in last month's auction, about what they took in the may refunding auction. i think this was an ok auction. not as strong as yesterday. if i had to give this a grade, if this was in school, i would say this was a b plus, where
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yesterday was a perfect score basically. matt: what happened yesterday, just the perfect storm? ira: again, we don't know who some of those indirect bidders were who came in, but i think the market went in very short. the market continued to get short after we hit those all-time -- not all-time but recent lows in the 10 year treasury yield around 1.13%. we backed up a good 22 basis points from their. maybe people were covering shorts, use the auction as an opportunity to do that. on top of that, when you look at what has gone on in the global rates space, where you have a significant number of jurisdictions that still have negative yields, and they look like they may stay negative for longer than the u.s. might, some people may be wanted to reengage in buying treasuries.
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1.35 percent is not anywhere near a high yield by any stretch. relative to where we were in the not-too-distant that -- past, you got to say it is. matt: i was on vacation for a week. when i looked at the bond yield for the first time in five days wednesday morning, i felt like it was pretty high compared to what i saw the week before. i want to ask you about inflation. mohamed el-erian was out yesterday with a column saying most economists are still using both hands, one talking about inflation on the one hand, looking like it may be transitory, on the other hand, looking like there may be structural change. that was after we got cpi but before ppi. that came out at a whopping 6.2%. the street estimate was for 5.6% which was already high, but we
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knocked the cover off of that ball. are we getting closer to consensus on inflation? ira: i don't think so. if you look at what the market is pricing, they are pricing for inflation to be transitory. we have reasonably high inflation the next couple quarters, and then it starts to drop off. over the next 10 years, the market only expects inflation to average around 2.4%. that is significantly lower than the prints we received. yesterday's cpi was still significantly higher than what the market is pricing for the longer-term. yes, the market certainly thinks we are going to be at a transitory inflationary environment. when you look at the details of yesterday's report, i focus in on the services component. uc goods prices go up significantly, because of supply chains problems and other issues with goods.
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but 60% of our consumption basket is still services. services look like they are may be leveling off at the same rate they were in 2015, 2017. it goods prices stabilize at some equilibrium in the not-too-distant future, you could probably see 3% inflation is probably going to be the norm over the next couple of years. maybe a little bit lower after that. i will take what the market is telling me and say i don't think that is an unrealistic expectation to think we will have 4.5% cpi this year. matt: or unusual. if you look at decades past, 3% is sounding pretty average. ira: exactly right. the idea that we were going to be at 1.8% forever, like we were in between the two market crises we had, was probably
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unrealistic. between 2% and 3% is kind of a sweet spot. that is a place where the federal reserve can say we are meeting our goals but at the same time we are not seeing a deflationary pressure and we are also not seeing runaway inflation. as long as we don't get into a stagflation environment where you have ever higher goods prices driving inflation higher, and that cramping down on growth and consumer activity in the u.s., then i think the fed will live with that. at the same time, the markets will like that kind of environment. i do think, if in the long term, we get what the market is pricing for inflation, rates will be higher when they are now. that is a 2023 type of experience. matt: thanks for joining us, ira
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jersey, chief rates strategy for bloomberg intelligence and apparently a huge supporter of real new jersey. we will be speaking to the ceo at vici properties next. this is bloomberg. ♪
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matt: this is bloomberg markets. i'm matt miller. vici properties is betting big on vegas, the company set to acquire mgm growth for more than $17 billion. edward pitoniak joins us now to discuss.
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it is a huge deal. first of all, congratulations and good luck. how do you work after a deal of such tremendous size? ed: after a deal of such tremendous size, the first thing you want to do is take a little rest. it was a lot of work for our team to do this transaction. we are resting with a great sense of excitement. the portfolio is just an incomparable experiential asset. the seven assets in las vegas, eight assets around the other regions of the u.s. are truly high quality real estate occupied by one of the best experiential, entertainment, gaming operators on earth. we could not be more excited to become the new steward of this portfolio and to be the stewards
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of the combined portfolios of vici properties. matt: how quickly does this acquisition start to make money from you? how much work are you going to have to do to cut cost and raise revenues? ed: we are a triple net reit. we collect rent first of all from the occupants of our buildings. the occupants of our buildings cover all the costs of operating and maintaining the buildings. thus, the rent we collect is pure net operating income. as a result, we are able to go into this deal, once we close this deal, it will be immediately accretive for our shareholders. meaning the earnings-per-share will be higher after this deal than they were before the deal. we will not require any cost
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cutting. we will be the beneficiaries of a very attractive and very secure rental stream from these properties. it is a rental stream, not an operating income stream. as a rental stream, the durability of it could not have proven more strongly throughout covid so far, insofar as both throughout covid to date have collected 100% of our rent in cash and on time. matt: i see that in the notes but i have to wonder, what difference does it change in the business environment? we have gone from a lockdown situation where people could not go to vegas, at least not in the kinds of numbers that we had previously seen. now we are seeing a reopening situation where everybody wants to go to vegas and the numbers are likely to be huge.
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how much of a difference does that make to you? ed: absolutely right. vegas has come booming back. it started in late q1, and then q2, which operated just reported on, that was a bonanza quarter, both in las vegas and across the various gaming regions. in las vegas, for example, the leading operators like caesars, mgm enjoyed occupancies toward the end of q2 that approached 100%. there is no other destination on earth right now running the kind of occupancies of las vegas. similarly, the regional assets are enjoying tremendous business. frankly, they have since they reopened around june of last year when the covid lockdowns ended. as a result, our current leading tenant, caesars, was able to report a billion-dollar ebitda
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quarter for q2. outstanding results. the forward-looking pattern for both leisure business and as we get into q4 and 2022 for the return of convention and trade show business, could not be more robust. matt: one final question. probably the biggest question people have over the past few months and years in terms of investing is, how can i get some kind of return? where do i get income growth? the answer is typically difficult. howard marks was telling erik schatzker last week, it is tough out there. but you have an investment vehicle here that provides, if i understand it correctly, at least 2% cpi. how are you able to do that? ed: those are conditions written into our leases. i was fascinated by the
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conversation you had with ira jersey just before we started talking. yes, it is really hard to find yield globally right now. you both cited the fact about how much sovereign yield around the world right now is negative. you were citing the u.s. 30-year auction was pricing in at 2.03. for the next 30 years? yes, we give our investors not only current income, yield is about 4.8%. we do have the ability to grow our dividend over time both through same store profit growth or rent growth, and through accretive acquisitions. along that line, we were one of the few reits last year to be able to announce a double-digit dividend increase, 10.9% last year. last week, in conjunction with the announcement of our acquisition, starting in q3 of
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this year, 9% dividend increase. so you get the combination of a study current dividend stream with the potential for dividend income growth, plus the ability to continue to grow in value, as we believe this will. finally, weighted average police term pro forma for this term will be 43.5 years. if you're in the business of matching up long dated liabilities with income assets, we are a good place to go. matt: i think the yield and the dividend growth story is why this company is so fascinating. i hope we can keep getting you on to see if you can return 10% dividend growth every year. edward pitoniak of vici properties talking to us after a $17 billion acquisition. this is bloomberg. ♪
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matt: airbnb out what second-quarter results after today's market close. for more, james hardiman of wedbush securities joins us. he has a neutral rating on the stock, price target of 150. i want to get your overview of the travel industry. the question people are asking you the most right now is probably, will business travel come back? james: that is a big piece of it. for airbnb, it is fairly de minimis. airbnb is seen as a play to capitalize on the secular decline of business travel. it is primarily leisure. the other question is how much delta is impacting travel in general. we are hoping to get more information on that when they report today. matt: everyone who can travel,
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it seems, is, as long as they feel safe. those places you can go to and come back from without a problem, people are doing it. james: that's right. airbnb is disproportionately exposed to that type of travel. having said that, historically there has been a lot of international travel. it's a part of their business. delta probably delays our ability to get back to normality. clearly what we saw throughout this year was improving trends through june. they seem to have hit a snag in july. i'll be curious to see if they have incremental data points on august. matt: one of the interesting things, watching companies report, we are not getting the solid outlook that we were. companies are more cautious. do you expect the same from airbnb today? james: i expect the same.
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on the first quarter call, they felt good about continued improvement but pointed to the second half as a time period where there would be significant uncertainty. i don't think that uncertainty has cleared up in the past three months. if anything, delta has made it a lot more murky. matt: james, thank you for joining us. james hardiman of wedbush securities. we look forward to airbnb's results after the bell. bloomberg markets. this is bloomberg. ♪
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mark: i'm mark crumpton with bloomberg first word news. new york governor andrew cuomo's resignation is not putting an end to questions about his
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administration's handling of covid-19 outbreaks in nursing homes. the state attorney general found the administration understated the death nursing homes by thousands of fatalities which may have been fueled by a state order that forced the facilities to accept recovering covid patients. families of the more than 15,000 new yorkers who died in nursing homes are urging state lawmakers and the justice department to keep investigating cuomo after he leaves office. rishi sunak promises the u.k. will not see a return to the austerity policies of last decade. the chancellor of the exchequer also says he works well with prime minister johnson. at the same time, he did the night he wants to succeed him one day. sunak did a round of interviews after reports that he and the prime minister disagree over their approach to spending. in poland, the government risks undermining relations with the united states and further antagonizing the european union,
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after the ruling party pushed through a couple of racial media law through parliament's lower chamber. the measure's purpose is ostensibly to protect broadcasters from takeovers but it targets discovery, the american owner of poland's largest television network. in china, authorities released a five-your blueprint calling for greater regulation of parts of the economy that provided a sweeping framework for the crackdown on key industries that have left investors really. the air is to be targeted include national security, and monopolies. global news 24 hours a day, on-air, and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i'm mark crumpton. this is bloomberg. ♪
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amanda: i'm amanda lang. welcome to bloomberg markets. matt: i'm matt miller. we welcome our bloomberg and bnn bloomberg audiences. here are the top stories we are following for you from around the world. chipmakers are set for their longest slide since 2018 as shares of macron selloff over concerns on the market for memory related semiconductors. it is our stock of the hour. dave wilson joins us shortly. battery volvo trucks are hitting the streets in new york city. we will discuss that with the volvo trucks north america president peter voorhoeve. and the future of money. we talk all things crypto with commodities strategist mike mcglone in new hampshire. amanda, live free or die. amanda: [laughter] it's a pretty quiet day for equities.
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remarkably low volatility here, back to pre-pandemic trading ranges the internals. he s&p 500 is mixed today, shipped from the last couple of sessions. pack is back in favor along with health care, one of the leading groups. you mention semiconductors are down, other tech names individually are down. energy is falling and we are watching it. not a huge weight in the u.s. market anymore, big in canada, but as the iea looks at the global demand, it's been continuing. the 30-year treasury auction came off without a hitch. there was a bit of a relief i suppose because some had worried the market might be less interested in the 30-year after the 10-year. it is certainly when we have seen an appetite for debt issuance. one thing that jumped out at me
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were these big corporate names, apple and intel, that have gone to the bond market. it is quite today for investment-grade corporate, but big companies that are cash rich already are willing to tap the bond market. matt: from the investor side, how can you say new? it is a long duration, but how can you say no to 204 basis points of return? in terms of corporate, one of the interesting things, we have seen so many companies come to market. that makes sense with a low yield, you want to get it while you can, but a lot of these companies are already super cash rich, already sitting on so much money, they don't know what to do with it or where to put it. yet, they continue to borrow. it is possible that they are worried corporate tax rates will go up. one thing that companies often do when corporate tax rates go
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up is go deeper into debt financing because they can write that off and lower the rates they have to pay. amanda: really interesting. to the extent you are right about that, and it is an interesting analysis, it is one of those unintended consequences you can get from suggested changes in the tax code. these are not companies that need to debt finance, they are adding to a cash pile. matt: i will say, the theory is, some have pointed it out -- and i follow her theory pretty well. that is why i'm able to spout it myself. going from intel to micron, these are supposed to be peek demand times for semiconductors given the record lead time needed for chip orders.
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but morgan stanley is done waiting for games at micron. dave wilson has a look at what is going on in this stock which is off more than 8%. dave: the lowest price for shares since december and possibly the biggest decline since march of last year when we were in a bear market. morgan stanley effectively cut its rating on micron to the equivalent from hold to buy, going from equal weight to overweight. the first rating cut at the firm since january of last year, according to our data. it is all about dram, dynamic random access memory. it goes into computers, electronics, accounts for more than 70% of micron's revenue. morgan stanley is concerned about where that market is heading. to have that concern pop-up at a time when, as you mention, companies increasingly have to wait for their chip orders, that
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certainly gets your attention. in the dram market, prices are kind of flat the last few months, which tells you there is perhaps not the same sort of supply-demand imbalance we are seeing in chips more broadly. not everyone figures the dram market is headed for a fall. rosenblatt securities figures the issue is overblown. when you look at analysts, micron has 28 by ratings, six holds. clearly, analysts are very positive on this company, even with the backdrop being what it may be for these dram chips. amanda: how has the morgan stanley call and other sentiment issues -- because we have seen chip stocks falling for a couple of days as a group. what is driving it, how is it
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playing across the space? dave: no question. the philadelphia semiconductor index heading for its longest string of decline since october 2018. we are seeing the carryover from micron. western digital, through its ownership of sandisk. you are seeing weakness in companies that supply equipment to chipmakers, notably applied materials and lam research. definitely a carryover. you can argue morgan stanley's call on micron comes at a time when the group was taking a hit anyway, so you are seeing more losses. matt: thanks very much, dave wilson with your stock of the hour. president biden is speaking from the white house on his build back better agenda. he says he asked the fda to get generic drugs to people faster. we will continue to follow this for you and bring you any
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headlines. you can also watch the speech on the bloomberg terminal. live go is the best place to follow. electric volvo trucks are hitting the streets of new york city for the first time. we will speak to volvo trucks north america president peter voorhoeve. this is bloomberg. ♪
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matt: this is bloomberg markets. i'm matt miller with amanda lang. volvo's electric trucks are hitting the streets of new york city for the first time, being deployed as a part of manhattan
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beer distributors's fleet of trucks serving 25,000 first to customers. peter voorhoeve joins us now to discuss. i have always said, if this doesn't work out for me, i would like to be a truck driver or beer distributor. i guess i would have the chance to do both here. aside from that, thanks for joining us. what will we see with this experiment? it is a pretty large fleet. peter: thank you for having me. very excited to be on your show. this is a big day for us, for manhattan beer, but also the city of new york. handing over the first of five electric trucks that will distribute beer in the five boroughs. it is not an experiment, this is not a pilot or test. this electric truck you see
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behind us as a part of our standard offering that we introduced a year ago and are now selling for normal operations. what can you expect? there are zero tailpipe emissions, no greenhouse gas emissions. we have to tackle the climate change we currently have. next to that, it creates clean air, improved air quality, which is imprudent -- important in urban areas. finally, you have lower noise creation. that means you have no -- less noise pollution. all of that together proves -- improves the quality of life of people in these highly dense areas as we tackle climate change. amanda: this is part of what feels like a permanent shift 20
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emissions. we know there is a mandate in place in many countries to get there at some future date. what is the challenge? when you think about trucking across north america, in this case you have installed charging stations these trucks can access. when you think about the larger picture, what is needed to make this a reality? peter: a couple of elements that need to be in place in order to roll out electric trucks. of course, we need to have the trips. you can see that behind us. the trucks are more expensive than regular trucks, and that means we need some help from government and state, federal and state programs, and that is what happened here with the city of new york. then we need the charging infrastructure and utility companies along with that to create enough charging opportunities. if these elements work together
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as a team, it can work. manhattan beer is a good example of all parties working together, in sync, putting five trucks in operation on the streets. matt: you talk about the higher cost. one way to offset that is through the cooperations you already have with companies like daimler, the company buying navistar to build scale. do you see more cooperations with former rivals? is that the way of the future? peter: as you mentioned, we have a joint venture with daimler on fuel cell technology, and initiative in europe on charging infrastructure. i have no further information about a cooperation. amanda: i do want to talk about
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aurora, probably early on into this push that you had, toward autonomous trucks. how far off is that kind of thinking, where are you on that ship? peter: in march, the group announced a partnership with aurora, between volvo autonomous solutions and aurora. that will result in a volvo truck with an aurora driver on it. we will keep you posted on the news there but it is a serious initiative. matt: what do you think about the startups we have seen in the market? a lot of them have fizzled out with nikola, what happened to trevor milton, but it is difficult for new companies to come out here, even tesla, to build a semi-tractor trailer with electric power.
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why is that? peter: volvo trucks has a long history in building trucks, how long history with our customers. there are a lot of different applications, whether you want to do beer or haul oil, fruit, those are different applications. with our customer relations within the industry, we have been able to build this vnr electric. this truck behind us was one that we already had, designed and developed for the north american markets. everything that we sell is built in our virginia plant. we have used the global technology we have, and we have been working for that for a long time. that is how we then take step-by-step and we come out with a truck with a range of 150 miles which is ideal for distributional in cities,
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regional distribution. by taking these steps and going to the market, this is how we will reach our goals, goals set by states, the government, but also the goals we set ourselves. we want 35% of our sales to be electric in 2030. this is the way that we are going to get there. matt: peter, great to have you on the program. we both appreciate it, don't we, amanda? peter: thank you very much. amanda: peter voorhoeve, president of volvo trucks north america. president biden just wrapped up his remarks. he was addressing something he raised in his executive orders, the price of drugs. he says he is asking the fda to review how to get generic drugs to americans more cheaply.
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he says he believes drug companies use their profits to buy back stock. we will watch this space and see if there is market reaction to that. coming up, we are going to the bretton woods realignment conference. the subject there is the future of money. that is coming up next. ♪
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amanda: this is bloomberg markets. i'm amanda lang alongside matt miller. we go now to the bretton woods realignment conference, the subject is the future of money. we have with us mike mcglone. that is a big subject. we know cryptocurrencies, digital currencies are very much in focus. what is the tone of the conference as you understand it so far? mike: the tone is very macro and big picture.
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where are we going, where will it be? and a potential shift in society from printing a lot of dollars to going to something more crypto oriented. what i really impressed with is a lot of people talking about this increasing cold war between the u.s. and china, and the u.s. essentially don't mess it up. that is what we were discussing in the u.s. congress. matt: i was looking at the price of bitcoin yesterday for the first time in a few days. surprised to see it bouncing back up over $46,000. what is behind the rally? over the span of two weeks when we went from scott minerd saying it would crash for sure and would go to zero, two now up to 50% from that level. mike: one thing i appreciate is when people get bearish support. fundamentally, it is still in a
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good bull market. the key take away is, what happened in d.c. last week -- short-term is not favorable for some of the legislature. it was a sense that our leaders are going down that rabbit hole that a lot of bitcoin people did a decade ago. this is not silly internet money, this is serious. the key thing that most people are pointing out here is that digital dollars, the most widely traded crypto's on the planet, and it is because of bitcoin and his capitalist system that the world is going to dollars and not the euro or the yuan. that is the sense i'm getting. a lot of positives. how can we make sure our leaders understand it? amanda: understand it and also get their heads around, in order to control the currency, you need to control that.
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central banks will know that this is currency circulating without their control. where is that on the agenda, if trying to rein it in at all? mike: that is the thing about bitcoin. there is a question about whether it is a currency. people here look at it as a digital reserve asset. what is not under the control of regulators are digital versions of the dollar. when i'm on the panel tomorrow, i will bring that out. to me, that is where our regulation should be going, tracking down and regulating these stable versus the dollar, and then china is trying to launch a central bank digital currency but it has happened on an organic scale with digital dollars like tether. matt: the president wants opec to pull more oil out of the earth.
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iea says demand could fall. what is the future like on that commodity? mike: i think oil has peaked around $75 a barrel. now we are getting to the presidential election. midterms coming up. i think the president is realizing that high gasoline is not good for getting elected. the good news is the cure for high oil prices is -- gas prices is higher oil prices. demand has been lackluster but supply is elastic. they can bring on more supply. matt: drill, baby, drill is not something i thought i would hear from this administration. thank you very much. four amanda lang --f for amanda lang, i'm matt miller. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪
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mark: the nationwide positive test rate in the united states
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declined during the past week according to data released by the cdc. the positivity rate fell nationwide to 9.5%, compared to 10.2% in a previous report. that breaks an upward trend that had been fueled i the delta variant. the taliban captured two more cities near kabul, including a strategic provincial capital. the insurgents have taken 11 cities in a weeklong sweep across afghanistan, weeks before the end of the american mission. kabul itself is not directly under threat. u.s. military intelligence suggests the capital could come under pressure within 30 days. the taliban hold an estimated two thirds of afghanistan. in hong kong, the population shrank substantially in the years since tough new national security laws backed by china
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