tv Bloomberg Daybreak Australia Bloomberg August 31, 2021 6:00pm-7:00pm EDT
investors. opec-plus members predict an oil shortage this year but ceased to fly -- busty supply flipping into 2022 -- but see supply flipping into 2022. you can see the futures are moving up little bit higher. we are looking at the highest valuation since the year 2000. versus more and more high-frequency data suggesting the rise of the delta variant weighing on the economy. financials were interesting today. you can see a loss of about -- wells fargo, a big story, five years into dealing with scandals that have caused the company over $5 billion in fines and settlements, bloomberg news finds out some of the regulators in the u.s. are saying they are maybe not moving fast enough and
we might have to introduce new sanctions. you concealed actually grow a little bit -- you concealed's actually grow little bit today after officials signal that they are looking at bond tapering sooner than they thought. back to the oil market, a small gain at this moment. it was probably one of the worst months in the oil market this october. in terms of the lower price, because looking at the opec-plus meeting, may be the damage from hurricane ida, it's going to be hard on the oil industry. this is such a great chart, looking at the monthly gain. seven straight months. this happened 14 times in the last 60 years. seven of the times, they are actually five, this seven month run was followed by another 9.7% increase in the s&p 500. i think that is hitting the ball
feeling that maybe this could be another year ahead for socks. >> with got some breaking news -- we've got some breaking news. raising their key rate to 1.5 percent from 0.75%. this is much bigger than any analysts had been expecting. we were looking at a hike to 1%. this is the biggest rate hike hike we've seen in two decades from the chile central bank, one of latin america's richest economy, they are awaiting consumption picking up. clearly chilean policymakers are worried about the economy overheating. inflation getting out of control. we are seeing the 75 basis points from the chile central bank, sing stronger growth implies faster inflation there. they are looking at stronger consumption and the key rate
decision was unanimous. the high oil prices have helped drive inflation rate pressures. let's take a look at the set up when it comes to this part of the world. gdp out of australia, front and center. we are seeing downside, probably for asian markets. -- broadly for asian markets. sydney futures are looking like an indicated downside of for 10th of one percent. we are looking at the aussie, as to the upper formers in the overnight session. when it comes to australian stocks, they posted their best monthly gains on record. we are seeing a little bit of a pullback. in 11th -- and 11th straight month of gains. kiwi stocks up 5% on a month,
it's best since november. we are getting the second-quarter gdp for australia. it's going to be a mixed bag. some of the higher commodity prices are going to go into the economy from exports. this to me feels like the calm before the storm, before the start of a lockdown. we are expecting to see that in the third quarter numbers. >> we shall see what happens there. quite an interesting situation for australia. another emerging-market. an asian economy doing so well. the u.s., consumer confidence has had its fourth-largest decline in the past two -- 10 years, dropping to 113 from 124, way below what able were looking for. both indications of expectations for the future, your current conditions, consumer sentiment
was very weak. maybe the delta virus is really affecting confidence. >> confidence in terms of the fear that some parts of the world and some parts of the u.s. may go back under restrictions, as we've seen here in australia. not just in south wales, victoria, under a lockdown, we expected it to be lifted this week, but they are nowhere near the levels. we will see a complete reopening eventually, but we are awaiting more details, of potentially less restrictions or a few tweaks for greater freedoms, particularly for vaccinated people. vaccination levels are about 35%. still a long way to get to even the levels we have seen in the u.s.. >> ever grand, a big story not just in china and investors, but around the world. there's concern that if they cannot take themselves out of this hole by dumping property,
selling apartment buildings, selling everything they can to raise cash and to be able to meet their financial obligation, they could default. that's what they said in their earnings statement yesterday. they may face litigation. one of their benchmark bonds, now down to 34.7 cents on the dollar. from bad to worse. >> that is one company to watch as we get into the start of trading in asia, and china, and hong kong. let's get you to vonnie quinn with our first word headlines. >> president biden has declared an end to two decades of u.s. military operations in afghanistan, offering an impassioned defense of his withdrawal plan. biden calls the withdrawal
unprecedented and says they were not going to extend the were forever. >> we succeeded in what we set up to do and of get a sent over a decade ago and we stayed for another decade. it was time to end this war. >> rescue operations continue in the southern u.s., where the death toll from her can i do climbs to at least that hurricane ida climbs to at least four. thousands in louisiana remain without electricity. the levee system in new orleans withstood more than a foot of rain, passing its biggest test since the billion dollar restoration after hurricane katrina. opec-plus, expecting global oil markets will continue to tighten this year, even as they revive output. data presented indicated world inventories will fall at an average rate of 820 5000 barrels a day over the next four months.
the numbers should reassure the coalition a supply increase for october. angela merkel is taking aim at efforts by olaf scholz to target the conservative bloc in this month's elections. the leader has been painting himself as merkel's rightful successor . but the chancellor pushed back, saying there's a huge difference between them, criticizing him for refusing to rule out cooperation with the anticapitalist left party. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm vonnie quinn. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> markets have priced in part of the fed's tapering with the base case in the fourth quarter sometime. the timing on the u.s. jobs market and the state of the economy. this is what the leading critic
of the taper had to say about the risk. >> my worry is, if they don't fully account for these new forces, they may be behind curve. that may necessitate stronger tightening down the line. >> he is worried about the fed letting inflation getting out of control by not moving fast enough. our next guest is concerned about this as well, let's bring in the president and founder of kumar global strategies. are you concerned, too? >> i have been very concerned about defense policy, kathleen. the friday speech chairman powell gave at jackson hole made me even more frightened, in terms of what was ahead. essentially, given the fact that prices are rising at the record rate as you discussed a bit earlier, and you have rents
increasing, inflation month-to-month on the cpi hitting numbers we haven't seen in decades, the chairman continues to maintain that it is all transitory. so, i don't know where his evidence comes from, if there's any evidence at all, and the fact that the tapering, if it happens, will be at the end of the year, means you will have another hundred billions of dollars a bond purchases. sorry, go ahead. >> in terms of the bond market, jay powell says, look, there's big inflation spike due to the pandemic, used car prices got more expensive, etc., is the bond market being too complacent? they seem very convinced by powell's argument we don't have
to worry about earlier rate hikes. >> the bond market is complacent, kathleen. i think the bond market is banking on the fact that the fed can step in and keep purchasing the bombs and push the hill down. the question is, do you want to fight the fed? my answer to that question is, yes, you need to fight the fed. because the fed cannot win at all times, we have had times in history when the fed goes to extremes, it doesn't anticipate what's going to happen. then the whole thing fails. to keep interest rates and bond yields under control, in 2008, the fed did not foresee the crisis. the fed is not omnipotent. and that is the problem. >> we just had that blockbuster news out of the chile central
bank, 75 basis points in this tightening cycle. we've seen the bank of korea move as well. clearly emerging markets have less time to mull over these things. where this a word about inflation -- why are they so worried about inflation? >> you make a good point. i've covered chile since 1980. the central bank has always been a conservative institution, austere. the bank of russia is the same way. you thing about the bank of russia president speaking, the governor speaking, and it's like you are at the university of chicago economics classroom. so, these central banks take their jobs very seriously. they are truly independent central banks. and unlike the u.s., which can get away with this, they cannot. they are being very careful. you see that in chile, as we saw today with the biggest rate
increase, russia has been doing this consistently, brazil has been hiking as well. you see that in different parts of the world but not in developed countries. >> we will talk about china after these. stay with us, komal sri kumar. it is gdp day in australia. lower export volumes in the second quarter. we get views from rbc's a little bit litter on. next, ever grantde -- evergrande's funds fall short. we get more with su-lin ong. this is bloomberg. ♪
worst and dented company is getting into a deeper hole. you look at the bonds, they think after the war -- they tank after defaulting on borrowings. you can see the bonds in 2025 is down to 34.7 sense of a dollar. it's compounding all the problems. another sharp discounts cut into the margins. they drag net income down 29% in the first half of the year. all these uncertainties have seen the share price go south in the past six months. >> trading resumption in hong kong. they've posted a record loss in 2020. we will be watching the market open in a few hours' time.
let's bring in david ingalls for more. what is the latest? >> is going to be interesting. because that specific stock, it's not [indiscernible] we will see whether or not it is given the right to list. it's going to show an epic drop today. when you look at the broader markets, there's a lot of good momentum coming through. a lot of volumes coming through. especially in shanghai. key moving averages. some signs of caution.
when you look at turnover and the money making its way from the main land to hong kong, a very big source of money. that remains quite negative. if you're thinking about buying the dip, it hasn't really worked out. this next chart shows you that. also the short squeeze. whether or not we are getting remnants of a short squeeze coming through on the back of. this price moving up we will see what happens today. >> still with us is komal sri kumar. the president and founder of sri kumar global strategies. there's been bargain-hunting in china. is it possible to gauge the adequate discount on a lot of these companies, given the regulatory uncertainty? >> it is not, heidi.
i think your question is timely. the reason you are not able to put in adequate valuation is that it is not just a huarong or evergrande risk. it is the china country risk. that is what you see. you can't just analyze -- you have to look at china from the top down, because of the increased risk. >> so, are there sectors that you would say to be an opportunistic -- less likely to fall within the main themes, common prosperity, morality driven policies we've seen from the government? >> it is very hard to judge. because me give you an example. the q3 crackdown which came down a few weeks ago was a big surprise. it was unlike the technology
data. they were not challenging the leadership of the country. it was considered to be increasing the class divide. making the rich people alone able to pay for the children to get the higher education, the tutoring, and the government came down on it. so it is very difficult to predict one year from now, six months from now, which sector is going to get the government's attention. i would say, yes, greater discount for the companies, but also, look at the country much more carefully than you did before. >> that's good advice. thank you so much, komal sri kumar. the president of sri kumar global strategies. president biden defense the withdrawal of troops from afghanistan, saying it was time to end the war and the withdrawal has saved american lives. more on that, coming. this is bloomberg. -- more on that, coming up. this is bloomberg.
>> we succeeded in what we set out to do in afghanistan over a decade ago. then we stayed for another decade. it was time to and this war -- end this war. >> president biden, defending the timing of the u.s. withdrawal from afghanistan, saying it saved american lives. the former u.s. national security advisors test abide in administration bungled the operation, saying he sees new terrorism risks in the country. >> they have remained in close touch with the tele-mentoring 20 years of exile, they are back-and-forth now, we see that in yuan reports before the fall
of the afghan government. isis-k has been at odds with the tele-been because they are tough enough. they think they are insufficiently strict in the implementation of is limitless. -- of islamic law. there is tension now. but let's be clear. this could turn into cooperation in the blink of an eye. isis-k does have worldwide threat capabilities as does al qaeda and i am worried we have slipped back into a pre-and 11 -- pre-9/11 situation. >> the u.s. has completely pulled out. what do you see is the best pathway to get the remaining people safely out of the nation? whose reliance are we going to rely upon? >> i am worried they are not coming. a lot of these u.s. citizens may well be dual citizen, u.s. and
afghan, or they may have been afghan and have become u.s. citizens. from the taliban perspective, they are still afghans. i would not rest any comfort and cooperating with taliban the taliban -- with the taliban. i think the number of afghans who worked with us and other coalition forces for the last 20 years are going to be few and far between, getting out. i think the real risk here is of a long, brutal hostage situation. >> did we do the right thing? we left and we left those people behind knowingly. >> we never should've left. i think that is the fundamental mistake. i think the exit itself was badly bungled, no question about that. but the mistake here goes back to the trump administration, negotiating with the taliban. negotiating with terrorists,
not negotiating with the government of afghanistan that we helped create 20 years ago, and whatever its deficiencies, and it had plenty, it had at least some democratic legitimacy over which the taliban has zero. >> that wars the former u.s. national, john bolton. -- that was the former u.s. national security advisor, john bolton. bloomberg data shows it now hold $70 million worth of receipts. >> if you look at the day had no
for us really are -- for australia, gdp numbers are set to show expansion. we're are looking at house prices for the august market. this is bloomberg. ♪ in business, it's never just another day. it's the big sale, or the big presentation. the day where everything goes right. or the one where nothing does. with comcast business you get the network that can deliver gig speeds to the most businesses and advanced cybersecurity to protect every device on it— all backed by a dedicated team, 24/7. every day in business is a big day. we'll keep you ready for what's next. comcast business powering possibilities.
>> and easing of fund lockdown restrictions today despite dozens of new cases being announced daily. how significant is this change in covid management particularly for victoria, which has been staunchly covid zero the hallway? >> it does appear that she does appear to be walking from the covid policies. -- >> he does appear to be walking away from the covid policies. victoria had 56 cases yesterday.
the premier says that is not acceptable. if we can get cases into the dozens, maybe we can look at easing some restrictions. he says when the announcement gets made, it is by no means freedom day. but we could see some restrictions eased. there's a speculation perhaps as to the curfew being taken away. maybe outdoor dining at cafes could return as well. nationally, the prime minister continued pushing this idea as well. he says once vaccination rates hit 80%, home quarantine will become the norm and that will be the end of hotel quarantine in australia. >> one of the retail giants, harvey morgan, paying back millions, is this raising questions about the scheme itself? >> yes, it is. they are getting money paid back. there have been questions about harvey morgan, the
appliance retailer, 75% surge in profit. it paid back some of that job subsidy it received. that some of the franchisees kept their money. the founder of harvey norman refused to say what he has done this. we have other cases of employees were told -- who were told by employers to sign-up for the ski men are now being chased by the government, saying they got overpaid, got allowance as they were not entitled to. a bunch of questions are being asked about the transparency of the scheme, the $70 billion that was rolled out quickly. the treasurer has been defending it, saying it was well targeted and boosted consumer confidence. you can see as the pandemic starts to ease, we are getting a preview of the sorts of questions that might be asked
about the response to it. >> australia's second-quarter gdp is likely to obscure the strength of the economy, with lower export volumes in the headline numbers. we have the chief economist at rbc capital markets. what are you expecting to see, what should we be looking for? >> i think we will see some growth in the second quarter. we have seen gdp rise a bit. we will see a fairly big jump in your on your terms. around 9%, reflecting the weak q2. what is important is to look beyond the headline number and modest growth. underlying that, we will see activity and consumption, business investment rising, government spending also increasing in the quarter.
overall domestic demand should be pretty solid. what's really going to weigh on the activity is a big net export drag as well as the drag from inventory. it's a little bit of a mixed picture. i think to some degree, that is headline number that will be on the softer side. not underlying strengthen domestic demand. all of that is before substantial lockdowns and new south wales and victoria and the current quarter. this quarter is shaping up much weaker. >> have to say, i can't help but look forward to the third quarter. how big is the impact going to be on services and consumption? >> it will be very significant. we have had and continue to have multiple lockdowns, extended lockdowns across states and territories in australia. we are anticipating many of these restrictions will be for
the entire third quarter and some will extend into the fourth quarter. the activity is through household consumption. that is where we have adjusted our numbers most substantially. we know from tighter restrictions that have been implemented particularly in new south wales, though sectors will be hit. gdp will contract quite substantially this quarter. it's just the extent and how large that negative print will be. we think it's going to be at least close to -3%. what's interesting is what the fourth quarter looks like. the recovery we get and how much will be recouped in the fourth quarter. >> almost going on two years now, economists and central bankers are asked to comment on, how do you think the course of the virus and lockdowns and how
the government is going to deal with it is going to affect the economy? have to ask you, covid zero doesn't work, do you expect something like a rollout of vaccinations or something that will help get the australian economy out -- on immersive -- on a more direct path? >> australia clearly was quite slow in terms of vaccination earlier in the year. a certain sense of complacency, given low covid around borders. there's been catch up on the vaccination front in the last couple of months. once we get up to 70%, 80% market is when you can start easing restrictions.
we can no longer have lockdowns. that's when the economy opens up on a more sustained basis. that's probably still a couple of months away. i think we have to be really seeing there. it's later in the year, more so the early part of 2022, where we see the return to living with this virus and more lockdowns that we had for the last 12-18 months. >> is the rba governor where jay powell was several months ago? i can't even think about anything that has to do with reducing stimulus. do they just sit back and say there's nothing we can do about this, and it's far too soon to react? >> i think there's no doubt fiscal policy is the most effective here, doing the heavy lifting. we've seen that on multiple occasions over the last 18 months, including the last couple of months.
monetary policy is helpful. the rba would like to taper. we are seeing that shift, to move away from ultra accommodative settings. what is important is what the medium-term outlook looks like for the rba, the 2022 stronger picture. there's no doubt currently the economy is weaker than the anticipated. but we think they would like to taper. they want to look through this current weakness, and look ahead to higher vaccination rates, easing and restrictions and some return to stronger growth. as long as -- as long as vaccination rates continue to rise, there is a path out of this. they prefer to taper very modestly. that still lends support to the economy, but at least get some away that she gets them away from this ultra accommodative setting designed for a different time and a different recession that we saw last year. >> do you think the aussie
dollar is at a level the rba is comfortable with right now? >> i think that is a really interesting point. when we think about qe and tapering for australia and reserve bank, a lot of it was around the currency, trying to keep a lid on the aussie dollar, soaring commodity prices, trying to keep borrowing costs low. when you look at financial conditions at the moment, they are probably easier than what the bank would've thought at this point. i suspect the bank was very much welcoming the fact the currency is down at these levels. it's listed a little over the last week. it's not far from the lows of late 2020. overall conditions are in support of the economy. again, that tells you that qe has some impact. but whether they taper or not, i don't think it materially changes. i think conditions are supportive year. >> thank you so very much for joining us, su-lin ong.
let's get to the first word news with vonnie quinn. >> she late's central bank -- chile's central bank, with the biggest rate hike in 20 years. pushing inflation above target. policymakers unanimously listed 75 basis points. the decision shows concern over overheating. the eu commission president says the number of vaccinations must go higher. italy will require travelers on planes, fairies, and other public transport to show proof of vaccinations or a valid negative covid test. the so-called green pass will be required at italy schools and universities. new research published in u.s.
medical journals say moderna's vaccine produced double the antibodies than pfizer. it did not examine whether the antibody amount led to better efficacy. the u.s. once more involvement from japan and china and the global fight against clement change. -- in the global fight against climate change. south korea's national assembly has approved a measure to ban app store operative from forcing developers to use their online payment systems.
the revision means companies that operate app stores such as google and apple must allow their users access to a variety of payment systems. it is likely to take effect as early as next month. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm vonnie quinn. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> next, oil ends august with losses this year ahead of the opec meeting. more, next, on bloomberg -- more, next come on bloomberg. this is bloomberg. ♪
♪ >> you are watching "daybreak australia." let's start on the equities front. underperforming u.s. and europe, the banks are ready for a big comeback. momentum is set against a backdrop of a long-standing reopening trade. if we move onto japanese stocks, they had their best month since march after gaining about 1% tuesday to close out august. still looking ahead to us really edgy peel later, both city and amp revise estimates higher, with amp x betting at 3% gain and citi it 0.5 gain. -- a 0.5% gain.
a smaller drug from net exports. >> and of course, commodities key to australian growth. we are seeing on the minium at a decade hi, oil has been under pressure. it's been the worst month this year so far for crude. let's start off with the latest on opec and france. what did we hear? >> opec-plus is expecting oil markets to continue to tighten this year, even as they are expected to boost output. they think that situation is going to flip and 2022 -- in 20 22 and end up with a big surplus. it is also expected to allow open producers to feel comfortable with their expert the decision to proceed with the output increase in october. it would be adding 400,000 barrels a day each month. they are forecasting inventories
to fall by an average rate of 800,000 barrels a month. even so, what we are seeing here is oil holding steady, as asia trading opened. we saw pullback in the west texas intermediate prices to end the month down with the biggest monthly loss, down about 7% for the year. also, if we drop into the bloomberg, we can see in the wake of hurricane ida, natural gas prices have been surging in the wake of the disruption. we are also seeing gasoline prices at the pump move higher, in anticipation of a drop in supply, gas prices expected to be a four-year high. one of the reasons we saw the wti decline in the regular session is at the recovery in the gulf area from hurricane ida
actually is expecting to be slightly better than expected. the refinery is expected to come back online and address the supply situation in a more upbeat fashion then originally thought -- than originally thought. >> aluminum at a 10 hi, what a time for commodities. -- 10 year high, what a time for commodities. >> anything from drink cans, the cars, to a lot of the home appliances, this is also fueling concerns of inflation. the jump and aluminum prices has a lot to do with a slew of policies and china. which is the top producer. they've been curbing output to conserve electricity and cut emissions. and diving back into the bloomberg, you should be able to see aluminum prices surged to the highest and a decade. we've got major financial firms, from goldman to citi, projecting the prices will continue to move
higher, given the policies and china. fed prices can hardly retreat as long as the demand remains intact. it's a different story for iron ore. singapore's futures are down more than 30% from this year speak. -- this year's peak. they pick up in chinese demand against the prospect of a broader weakening of the economy. and more curbs on fuel output. the economy weakened more than expected according to the august pmi data. a very different story, in the near term. >> when you think australia, most people think blue and lots of sunshine. that is translating to it becoming a world leader when it comes to the installation of rooftop solar panels. 30% when it comes to households that have a solar panel. what is surprising is the latest data showing by 2026, we could
see almost 80% of the country's underlying demand for electricity being met through the power generated through solar. this is so much quicker than what even analysts were expecting, the record 35% was said in october of last year. this is really pushing this energy market to become one of the most decentralized, now increasingly de-carbonized in the world. >> i think it is amazing that australia could become the first country in the world to depend completely on solar power. in the u.s., so many people are like, i don't know, it depends on what part of the country and live in. maybe and austria, that's one of the things, this is part of the culture. people are more ready for this kind of change. for a lot of families, solar power is less expensive than other forms of electricity generated and other cans of power that might take
a while to recuperate the investment, sarah. >> i would say the political reluctance to let go of coal plants. >> maybe it's a good sign. vot with youre dollars, consumers have power. coming up, five years of a scandal. wells fargo may face even more sanctions now. we will get you the latest. this is bloomberg. ♪
♪ >> bloomberg has learned u.s. regulators are unhappy with wells fargo's progress in compensating victims and shoring up controls following a series of financial scandals. the bank already paid more than $5 billion in fines and legal settlements and may now face new sanctions. joining us now with the details is our bloomberg finance reporter, hannah levitt. if i was the ceo who came in and 2019 to clean up, i'd be pretty frustrated, because i feel like i am doing everything i can, what more can i do, perhaps? >> really interesting question. you have the scandal, you know, which really came into the open almost exactly five years ago. and it started with fake
accounts and multiplied across business lines. it led to the departure of a ton of executives, including two ceos. that led them to bring in the current ceo, charlie sharp, almost two years ago. he had always outstanding orders from regulators to welcome him as a result of the problems. the orders outline a series of things the firm has to do. so a pair of them was imposed in 2018. sharpening the company, the shore of compliance risk management. there were a couple other things as well. reporting today is that they've not made enough progress, which prompted them to one the company they may bring new sections. >> what could these new measures and fresh sanctions look like? >> there's a range of potential outcomes here. i don't have a great answer sitting here today. you could see anything from
a fine, to replacing the current order with anyone that highlights the things that are not done. of course, they could decide to hold off and give the company more time. it's across-the-board. >> so, actually, let me hop in here with one more -- what does this mean for investors? they have done so much. they are doing fairly well, as banks go. is this something they can handle with sort of part of what they have to do the next few months, or does this potentially undermine them? >> that's a good question. charlie sharp, the ceo, has been really clear about how much work there is to do, how much work he inherited since he took over the company. he said in july during the earnings call, the company is missing significant -- making significant progress but warned there could be setbacks due to the complex city of what they have to do, just the sheer amount of it. this would be an example of
potentially one of those setbacks, and on the other hand, we reported earlier this year that they got approval for a plantar to their acid cap, which investors care a lot about -- asset cap, which investors care a lot about. another order earlier this year. there are signals in both directions. >> hannah levitt there. let's get you a check of our headlines -- morgan stanley, boosting base pay to $110,000, a mark that will now cover the trading division. this comes after the bank hiked entry-level which is to catch up with others. google's delaying that return to office until next year amid the
pickup and low -- the pickup in global covid cases. working on campus will remain optional until then. google will give workers a 30 days notice before they are expected to be back. china evergrande is defaulting on its debt. the developers' income plunged in the first half. liabilities climbed to a record as borrowings declined. bonds, sinking to fresh lows, as confidence continues to fall, as well as the ability to pay debt. the company says they can ensure continued operation for the next 12 months and have fulfilled the requirement to resume guidance. shares were halted in april reporting $nnual rep million in the first half.