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tv   Bloomberg Daybreak Australia  Bloomberg  October 7, 2021 6:00pm-7:00pm EDT

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>> good morning and welcome to delbert -- daybreak australia. >> we are counting down to asia's major market open. shery: the top stories this hour. u.s. stocks rise as progress on debt talks and concern over the global energy crunchies. >> the u.s. senate get set to vote on a short-term deal.
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shery: china valves to continue cracking down. it says it will do whatever necessary to curb the behavior. we are seeing u.s. futures muted at the open. the s&p gained for the third consecutive session. the rally fading a little bit throughout the session after we heard news that china plans to tighten supervision over technology. the 10 year yield continued to gain ground. oil rebounding from losses. the u.s. energy department it has no plans to tap oil reserves. we continue to see the rally in commodities with oil up 15% since mid august. we also saw a rally in chinese abr. the golden dragon index gaining ground for the third session. switch out the board and you can see that it has seen the biggest
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jump since august after hitting the 17 month low on monday. this after the report that -- a little optimism given that we may see the potential joe biden xi jinping meeting. perhaps a revival intact, the chinese embassy saying they will tighten oversight. china will continue to take steps to curb monopolistic behavior. we are watching closely what is happening with the debt ceiling, because we are expecting the vote in the senate tonight with democrats and republicans agreeing to raise the debt ceiling on a short-term basis by $480 billion. that would allow the treasury to meet obligations through december 3. the caveat is december 3 is also when the stopgap funding bill runs out. we will have plenty more to
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discuss come december. >> it was interesting deals on bills that mature in december have been rising as well. anticipating a repeat of the showdown when we get there. for now, at least the sun has set on the debt ceiling debate. the sun rising on the china reopen. >> we are really excited toward the reopen. the first time the chinese market will be trading after the golden week holiday. we have seen the ongoing crisis not to mention the default on the property sector in china. leading to the selloff and offshore debt and the news lately on the selloff intact given the tighter supervision as well. paul: a few other developments
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have happened while china has been closed. not least of which the energy crunch. we will see few oil trading in shanghai for the first time in a week. trading in that commodity will also resume. consumer spending has been disappointing during the golden week holiday. evidence suggests consumers in china keeping their wallets shut all the one bright spot, box office sales were better than expected. shery: happy friday to all of you. we are watching what happens in china bracing ourselves for the reopen. what are you watching? >> this friday session will be closely watched with market service. we will watch to see if the previous he will keep the cash engine running with more injections after the holiday drain. as we face a mountain wall of
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short-term debt coming due. we will be looking for any clues to the rbis intention to dow back liquidity. they have been tolerant of prices that have come back to within the target range. we have that on watch. the cpi will stay sticky over the next six months in india. after we had the rate, analysts have been trimming their targets for the kiwi dollar. we have it holding below 70. the aussie looking for the first -- as reopening prospect improve. the offshore you want, we see it trade over the golden week break. one says authorities seem to be
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tolerant. nikkei futures pushing slightly higher while the yen is trading with more downside pressures for the currency. the economy still seems vulnerable. shery: in the u.s., we are glued to what happens in congress. senate leaders reached a short-term deal to raise the debt limit until december. this will avert the immediate threat of default, but it sets up a fresh artisan battle to the end of the year. >> the pathway are democrat colleagues have accepted will spare the american people any near-term crisis while definitively resolving the majorities excuse that they lack time to address the debt limit through the reconciliation process. there will be no question they will have plenty of time. shery: let's go to our congressional reporter.
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if passed by the senate, the seed to be passed by the house. we heard from mitzie pelosi that she will give notice of house members need to return early. give us the step-by-step of what happens next. >> really the first thing we are watching right now is to see what is going to happen with the senate vote. the leaders, mitch mcconnell and chuck schumer they have agreed to this extension that goes until december 3. now, mitch mcconnell needs to bring 10 republicans on board with him to make sure this process goes quickly and to avoid the procedural alabaster. at this -- the procedural filibuster. at this point, it's not clear that they have the votes. they met behind closed doors. they have emerged telling reporters that they are still trying to get lawmakers republican lawmakers to yes. what happens this evening?
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there's a giant question on that. then the house would have to come back and vote on it. we are confident the democrats would vote again past that. don't need republicans to join them in the house and democrats just passed a bill to extend the debt limit last friday. the biggest question right now is along the senate vote than looking out to late november on what if anything is going to change. democrats and republicans are dug into their positions even though we have a short-term freeze. there's a very good chance we could be having a similar standoff come the end of november. paul: what happens when we do get to december? the republicans essentially trying to force the democrats to force reconciliation. >> part of it yes. democrats are saying they
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shouldn't have to use reconciliation. to get republicans to vote along with them. some will have to change their minds. they will have to say either republicans will go with them or democrats will use reconciliation. on december 3, the same day they are trying to do extend the debt limit to is when government funding will run out unless democrats move with a funding bill. no one wants the government to shut down at this point. thanksgiving is looking less and less relaxin here in washington. shery: as we continue to hear more from congress, senator johnson a republican from south dakota says they will have the votes to extend the debt bill. we are waiting on that vote in an hour or so. markets have been watching that closely. treasury yields have rebounded
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again given the latest development, oil surging has helped the yields. the next u.s. jobs report for september coming out on friday that will be another key metric for investors to follow. the expectation is that the report will easily meet the economic bar set by the fed to start tapering bond purchases at its november meeting. our editor is here with a preview. what does the fed need to see on the payroll numbers to push the taper button? >> let's remind everyone where we are focused on the payroll numbers. this number will tell us if the fed tapers or not. after the last meeting, september 22 the fed made it very clear. that they are ready to start tapering bond purchases. yet i have to see if the substantial further progress metric on jobs has been met. jay powell the times said it
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thinks he probably has. what is going to meet that hurdle? payrolls for the month of september are expected to rise by 500,000. that would be more than double august 235,000. if we go to the bloomberg chart, there has been a decline in the delta variant cases. also an expiration of the pandemic jobless benefits. some people were getting $300 per week in addition to their state unemployment benefits. people are thinking that's going to push more to go out and find a job. jay powell was pushed the press conference. for what he is looking for in the jobs report. he said a decent report would be enough. when you look at these bars showing the last one at 235, not as big as the giant ones near a
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million, but that would be considered a decent report. in fact, if again as low as -- as low as 235,000 would satisfy the substantial further progress criteria. they are looking for a gain of 750,000. the unemployed rate expected default to 5.1%. not because the market is weaker, but because people are looking for jobs now. they are it having a job, they are unemployed for a while. paul: chinese officials doubling down on attempts to rein in the fintech sector. we have seen the biggest tech stocks. let's bring in our correspondent in hong kong. what is being said and how are the markets responding?
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>> interestingly as we just saw, the tech stocks listed in the united states had a banner day. stocks wobbled a little bit when news started trickling for what the central bank governor in china said as well as the chinese embassy in the u.k. had to say in response to concerns raised by the u.k. business community. they put out a statement justifying the tighten supervision over big tech firms in china. and his crackdown on educational firms as conducive to healthier growth of the chinese economy and society. earlier, the central bank governor said the pboc will continue taking steps to curb monopolistic paper among platform companies. essentially what they are saying , it's not surprising where he was saying it, he is essentially
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backing up what the big bosses in beijing have been saying all along that the regulatory crackdown on monopolistic behavior is not necessarily over. you would think that could cast a shadow over the rally. we saw in new york, the golden dragon index surged by more than 5%. alibaba was up 8%. a big rally on top of what we saw here in hong kong yesterday. a big rally in tech stocks and hang seng. hong kong did have a big rally yesterday. we will have to see. shery: that was a preview of what we can expect at an exciting open and china. let's get to first word headlines. >> the u.s. central intelligence agency is creating a dedicated
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china mission center. it is aimed at tackling what was called the most important geopolitical fight of the 21st century. an adversarial chinese government. centers are standalone entities utilizing resources from across the agency. work will continue on other threats including russia and iran. on the topic of covid restrictions and travel, the u.k. has eased entry rules for 47 countries and territories that were previously subject to the tightest covered rules. visitors from other destinations will be able to avoid a 10 day hotel quarantine. only seven nations in latin america are to remain on the red list for monday. the u.k. will also recognize vaccine certificates for more countries. in japan a magnitude 6.1
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earthquake struck near tokyo thursday. it was the most powerful to be felt by the capital since march 2011. train service was disrupted power was briefly knocked out in parts of the city. some injuries reported. tremors of this size and magnitude are rare and tokyo. imf managing director is preparing to fight claims of tampering with world bank report. she has hired a defense attorney to represent her. she is accused of pressuring staff to adjust data for ranking in china's favor. her attorney says there are substantive errors in allegation. global news 24 hours a day on air and on bloomberg quicktake. powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. this is bloomberg. ♪
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paul: still to come, we preview the u.s. jobs data. up next, we discussed the markets with an investment strategist who thinks some parts of the tech sector are better bought and sold. this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> pandemic driven activity has been amazing. people are shopping online, they're using their phones for finance. >> blockchain and using stable coins is something very interesting. >> we will be big players on the by outside as the industry matures. especially around watching technology. >> i'm fine if people want to
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train bitcoin and cryptocurrencies, but there should be full transparency. >> we are seeing saturation -- maturation. >> high-profile guests at the bloomberg global summit sharing their thoughts on fintech and cryptocurrency. our next guest joins us from new york. to your point, this chart is showing the premium over the s&p 500 is at the narrowest since 2018. where in this sector would you find good opportunities? >> some of the big tech companies are starting to look attractive. not universally, but the valuations of corrected. if you look at the tech sector broadly, the s&p 500 tech sector, we went from one
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multiple to another but we are still above the five-year average. a lot of these companies are still growing earnings 20 something percent. if you ask me for the sweet spot in tech that this is where we would be buying, i look to the semi conductor space. if you look at the valuations of semi conductors, we have corrected by eight percentage points or so. the valuations are now almost exactly at their five-year average levels. the reason say that this is a sector that is no longer crowded because we have seen a lot of hedge fund bunny come out of technology -- a lot of hedge fund money come out of technology. they have been selling tech including semi conductors. also seeing outflows. i would look to the semi conductor trade here. shery: we have breaking news.
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the latest from tesla's and -- annual meeting. elon musk saying the tesla will move its headquarters to austin, texas. he hopes the chip shortage will alleviate soon. that the company is open to licensing driverless car technology. he was also talking about their shanghai plant outpacing the winning california. again elon musk sang tesla removing their headquarters to austin, texas. we have seen a lot of conflict between elon musk, the company, and policymakers in california. he has announced that he is moving to texas. talk us through what happens with the semi conductor side of things and how that could affect carmakers like tesla. it doesn't look like a shortage will ease anytime soon. >> you are right. it could take a few quarters for the shortages to be resolved.
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i am encouraged by what we are seeing around the delta variant around the world. as the covid cases have peaked and are subsiding around the world, that means the factories can reopen. truck drivers can go back to work again. that should start to alleviate the bottlenecks. if you look at the chip sector specifically, we are shipping well below demand. it's going to take some time to rebuild inventory which is well below the average is. i'm talking several different quarters. as we build inventory, it's when to help the auto sector. we are expecting auto production to return to 2% growth this year but accelerate its production to 9%. the rebound in smartphones and base stations -- that's why that's the sector i would be buying at this particular
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moment. i think we will see this momentum for demand to continue for the next few quarters as they restock. paul: returning to your thoughts on supply chains, there is optimism around improving vaccination rates. as we have seen with the delta variant, things can go off the rails unexpectedly. how long do you see the supply chain issues enduring for? what is going to be the effect on global growth? >> i think this is going to play out over the next several quarters. i am encouraged by the global vaccination rate. globally, only 28% of the world would have received at least one dose. today, about 46% has received at least one dose. i think this is going to continue to increase significantly over the next few months. the other big story in the united states at least we are likely to have vaccines approved for children age five. -- age five and older over the
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holidays. we will vaccinate a percentage of the population as well. as the world rebounds into 2022 with the supply issues, they will continue to ease. ultimately, we are talking six to 12 months until they are fully resolved. this is why we come back to the inflation narrative. for all the wishful thinking that inflation is transitory, i think it's going to be well above 2% for the next six to 12 months. paul: thank you so much for joining us. we have plenty more to come. this is bloomberg. ♪
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shery: again on the alert on the bloomberg, elon musk sang his company will be moving their
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headquarters to austin, texas. stressing tesla will increase their output and other factories. it is it leaving california completely. he also is speaking about the chip shortage this halloween, xfinity rewards is offering up some spooky-good perks. like the chance to win a universal parks & resorts trip to hollywood or orlando to attend halloween horror nights. or xfinity rewards members, get the inside scoop on halloween kills. just say "watch with" into your voice remote for an exclusive live stream with jamie lee curtis. a q&a with me! join for free on the xfinity app. our thanks your rewards.
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paul: taking a look at the day ahead for australia, the reserve bank of australia releases its financial stability review later. this is a semiannual report. the coronavirus cases are a new record for the state of victoria. gases have been offset by a forest conservation project.
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president biden and xi jinping plan to meet before the end of the year. a foreign minister says there is much to be gained from working collectively. they spoke exclusively with bloomberg. >> i think the tensions have escalated. the rhetoric has sharpened. both at the very top, president xi, president joe biden. these are experienced statesmen. i do not believe that they are aiming for conflict. there are certainly issues that they will have to work through and we need to give them some space and time to do so. what we are seeing from the point of view of southeast asia and from the pacific is to say
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in fact confronted by a digital revolution and an existential threat of climate change, and an acute challenge from covid-19, there is so much more to be gained by working collectively, working together. i really believe this does not have to be zero-sum game. >> we knew that president biden is reviewing his u.s. policy toward china. what needs rethinking? you talked about how there needs to be a rebalancing, readjusting. what would it take for both sides to come to some sort of compromise and work together? >> this is where you are asking me to venture into dangerous territory and give advice. [laughter] >> your thoughts. >> just bear in mind, singapore
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is not even a midsized city in china or in the united states. obviously, we have skin in the game. 1.i would make is for the u.s. to understand that while china certainly became part of the multilateral system in particular with the ascension to the wto 20 years ago and that this is been an avenue for an unprecedented historical achievement of listing hundreds of millions of people out of abject poverty. one caveat i would insert is that the u.s. should not expect china to become more like the u.s.. china has a deep historical sense of identity. it is a civilizational state.
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it has no intention of -- becoming more like the u.s.. shery: let's now get to the first word news. >> let's start with the senate leaders here in the u.s.. they have pulled the company back from the brink of default by agreeing on a short-term debt ceiling increased. a senate aide told bloomberg the plan reached between chuck schumer and mitch mcconnell raises the statutory debt ceiling by $480 billion. it allows the treasury to meet obligations through december 3, the day the short-term spending bill runs out. meanwhile, steve mnuchin is warning about the risk of reaching the debt ceiling and concerns that it could further fuel inflation. he told david westin the u.s.
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needs discussions around an appropriate amount of national debt and spending. >> the good news is the economy is rebounding. strong labor prices are up. i worry that this will be ongoing inflation and we could easily end up with 3.5% 10 year treasuries which increases the cost of the national debt and creates budget issues. >> u.s. efforts to ease the global chip supply crunch are facing was distance from lawmakers and executives in taiwan and south korea. washington wants information on supply chains. tsmc says it will not part with sensitive client data. south korea has released a statement expressing concern with the scope of the u.s. request. a pboc governor says that china will continue steps to curb monopolistic behavior among tech companies and strengthen consumer data protection.
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the central bank will also tighten regulation of the payment sector. he asks all financial services companies to be licensed. this mirrors actions taken recently against alibaba. global news 24 hours a day on air and on bloomberg quicktake. powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. this is bloomberg. shery: it's time for morning calls ahead of the asian trading day. >> we are seeing preliminary earnings for the third quarter. citibank expects a solid report card. over at citigroup, the chip unit is set for a robust recovery going into year-end. paul: tesla is hosting its
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annual shareholder meeting as we speak and its new factory in austin, texas. let's get to our auto reporter for the latest. austin is going to be the new home for tesla. in real terms, what does this mean? >> that's the big new so far, that tesla is moving from palo alto to austin. the gige austin that they have built is a massive factory that's going to produce the model y compact suv and by the end of next year, the cyber truck. elon musk also said that the model y will become the best-selling car in the world by 2023. that would surpass the toyota corolla. i have also said at this gathering that by 2030, tesla will be selling 20 million cars annually.
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that would be more than double what toyota sold last year as the world's top seller. >> how is the chip shortage factoring into all of that? >> >> elon musk says it has been frustrating, but tesla has managed to get the chips. as you know, their sales in the third quarter were nearly 250,000 vehicles. they have managed to commandeer enough chips to drive growth which is more than any other automaker. paul: in terms of moving away from california, this is the end of tesla's relationship with that state. they are opening a new factory is that correct? >> they went to great pains to say that they will still have a large and growing presence in california. they will expand the fremont
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plant. they are in nevada, as well. they are not pulling up their tents and moving out of california. the headquarters will move to austin and that is significant. that's were elon musk will be based. >> that's the latest on tesla as the annual meeting continues. coming up next, we preview u.s. jobs data. our guest sees fresh disruptions in the labor market. this is bloomberg. ♪
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shery: steven mnuchin says breaching the debt ceiling and overspending could further stoke inflation and sent treasury yields soaring. he spoke with david westin at a bloomberg conference. >> covid was just an extreme emergency. anybody who ever ran a downside on a business never anticipated zero revenues. to shut down the entire economy for medical reasons, that was the right decision. the $4 trillion of spending we did was an emergency.
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the fed responded appropriately. the fiscal congress responded appropriately. we are no longer in the same medical emergency we were in then. the good news is, we have vaccines, we have viral treatments. there's no question the medical emergency is not the same. there's no question we need to normalize monetary and fiscal policy. there's no question the fed has to at some point taper the portfolio and right size the fed balance sheet and normalize interest rates. it's just a question of how fast they do that and where we end up on interest rates. personally, i worry about inflation. i know this is an area that larry summers, some of his public comments i agree completely with. >> larry has been on bloomberg talking about this repeatedly. is your view on inflation? is it transitory or do we have a longer-term problem? >> there's no question that we
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have inflation today. the fed models and the treasury models don't necessarily predict what's going to happen in the future because ensuring fiscal and monetary response. my concern is that we will have inflation, it will continue. some of it may be transition, but look at energy prices. something i never thought we would see during covid as you saw negative prices of oil. now the biden administration is talking about releasing oil from the strategic reserve. clearly, we have inflation and energy. the good news is economy is rebounding very strong. labor prices are up. i do worry that this will be ongoing inflation and we could easily end up with 3.5% 10 year treasuries. that increases the cost of the national debt and creates budget issues.
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paul: that was steven mnuchin speaking with david westin. let's stick with the u.s. economy and talk more about jobs data. a senior economist joins us now. a huge range of estimates for the jobs data due out. what are you expecting in terms of a surprise in either direction? kim: i think there's still a great amount of uncertainty around where this number could land. we think we are likely to see a down -- a downward surprise tomorrow. that's because of the fact that we are likely to still have seen some destruction to the labor market because of elevated covid cases and high death rates. if you look at one covid cases and death rates started to, it wasn't until later in september and it was passed the reference time for the payroll survey. we think that fear of catching
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the virus may have held a few people back from returning to the workforce especially in the close contact roles like hospitality. that's where there are high vacancies. from our point of view, even though we are expecting a downside surprise, we are not expecting it to be enough of a downside surprise to change the outlook for a taper announcement november. paul: maybe no change for the taper outlook, but what about the u.s. dollar customer? kim: we could see more affirming of the u.s. dollar especially if in line with expectations the taper announcement will go on as expected. soon as you start thinking about tapering, it's hard to not think about what that means and when it will start to increase.
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[indiscernible] there is some room for markets to start thinking we will see a more aggressive hike cycle and that supportive of the u.s. dollar. shery: we saw the treasury dollar resuming. what would be the broader impact given that this is not a resolution, just kicking the can down the road to december? kim: the risk of the default on debt hasn't gone away, it is just and delayed. we are likely to see a little bit of pullback in some of the strength we were seeing as we were getting close to what could have been a default. none of that's further down the road intentionally, all that remains -- all that means is the
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risk could move into december. shery: what about inflationary concerns? come december, there will be more talk about passing the infrastructure built. we are also talking about the tax and spending package which is $3.5 trillion. kim: if we look at things like inflation expectations and the employment cost index, both of these are suggesting in the medium-term inflation risks will prove to be firmer than expected. that's why we are forecasting that the fomc will start to raise the rate in december 2022. paul: let's talk about the reserve bank of australia.
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it has its financial stability report out today. in the past five months, the housing market has put on one trillion australian dollars in value. how great a focus is this? kim: we have been hearing more and more out of the rba. risks from high credit growth that have a high debt to income radio -- ratio. we have seen them come out and increase -- shery: please go ahead, i think that's an announcement on paul side of things. kim: we have seen them come out and increased the minimum loan serviceability test up to 3%. we're already seeing some action come out from the regulators to try to cool that housing market. we don't think it's going to have too much of an impact and we still think that house prices
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in australia will be up by around 7% over 2022. shery: thank you so much for joining us again and bearing with us through the announcement. that was kim joining us with the latest on her economic abuse. be sure to tune in for more. stay with us. this is bloomberg. ♪
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shery: take a look at the commodity space right now. we saw gas futures halting the losses on tight winter inventories. this after an announcement by russia that it might be helping with the energy crisis. then we saw bearish signs coming from the storage facility situation at the moment. we also had crude rebounding after the u.s. energy department said they will not be tapping into oil reserves. gold also fluctuating. u.s. jobless claims beat estimates. we are headed toward the friday paper -- payroll numbers.
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soybean saw some dip buying's. it has fallen amid forecast for bigger u.s. stockpiles and bigger output in brazil. these are your crypto assets. crypto under pressure but still trading above the 53,000 level. that would be a five-month high. earlier today we heard from steven mnuchin saying that stable coins should be regulated and their underlying fund according to banks. we are seeing regulators hone in. paul: let's look at the latest business flash headlines. apple is looking to expand its reach with technology to access functions like climate control, speedometer, and seats. apple card play is already used
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by millions. the new initiative would take iphone control in the car a step further. a japanese maker says the covid pill could be a $2 billion drug. it expects to have late stage trial data by december and will move quickly on filing for regulatory approval in japan. one ceo says he expects the company to be able to produce by next year. >> if -- at the current price can be used for the u.s. and europe and japan, i think at least the $2 billion sales will be anticipated for the first several years. paul: laser tech is expanding its computer-based to include
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chipmakers to include some of the world's most powerful microprocessors. strong demand for its chip testing gear helped push it to a record $1 billion. the company forecasts a sixth straight year of record revenue and profits. europe's biggest steel mark -- steelmaker is increasing a surge on some products. sources say some products will be subject to a surcharge which follows a similar move by british steel. a shortage of natural gas has caused prices to soar across europe increasing costs. abu dhabi investments authority and blackrock are among those weighing bids to take part in
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the listing. sources say the company is planning to raise $2 billion from the share sale. shery: we are headed toward the australian open. let's look at the stocks sophie is watching. >> the bank tied up with visa to weigh into the buy now pay later space. when it comes to minors, where keeping an eye on rio after the ceo gave a start date of 2022 for its goldmine. then a ceo spoke with the possibility that the company would consider operating in tougher jurisdictions if the assets involved are attractive enough. this after a report that they are in talks to buy copper project. this amid the backdrop of the metals and mining industry facing tightening supply after years of underinvestment when it comes to mind. one ceo warns that the market is
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running into a problem. supply undershooting demand for years to come. paul: let's have a quick look at how the markets are shaping up as we are a couple of minutes away from the australian open. we saw again on thursday. all sectors were higher yesterday with the exception of energy. we had a decent section -- session for u.s. equities. new zealand had been trading for a couple of hours now. [indiscernible] >> the evacuation drill, we all need to stay safe. we are headed toward the australian open. we are seeing futures higher by seven tents of 1%.
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we will have some numbers coming out in the next hour including japan cash earnings, household spending, samsung luminary earnings. stick around. this is bloomberg. ♪
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shery: hello and welcome to "daybreak: asia" from bloomberg world headquarters in new york. paul: our top stories this hour -- asian stocks sending wall street higher, china coming back online. the u.s.


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