tv Bloomberg Daybreak Europe Bloomberg November 12, 2021 1:00am-2:00am EST
♪ dani: good morning from bloomberg's european headquarters. i'm dani burger and this is daybreak europe. here's what you need to know. inflation fears hit treasuries. the u.s. holiday. cpi print continues to trickle through markets. china paves the way for the president's lifelong role at a policy meeting in beijing.
cop 26 wraps up today. new obstacles for the glasgow conference. happy friday. you made it to the end of the week and we started with some greater earnings in the luxury sector. a solid beat on the part of the swiss company with a lot of watches. we are seeing their first-half operating profit coming in at nearly 2 billion euros. the estimate was for 1.1 billion euros. margins strong for reach month. the estimate had been just under 17%. it's all about pricing power this earnings season. the luxury goods maker has that, saying that their partnership with the online operator that sells a lot of luxury companies, they will further that partnership. a lot for investors to be positive on. from luxury to telecom. we are getting numbers this
morning. it's more positive news. arrays of an adjusted after they released their forecast. this is their whole year forecast that they are raising. they are looking at a third quarter revenue which slightly missed, very slightly. 26.8 8 billion euros. the estimate had been for 26. not too significant of a miss. the story will be that they are indeed raising their full-year outlook. earnings roles on's and that helps this equity markets continue to stay strong. positive earnings and pricing power. it's a different story in today's bond market. it's a deeper selloff. bond market open yet again after the veterans day holiday yesterday. the action is in the front-end of the curve. the belly.
you are looking at a five year yield which has topped. it's off to the races yet -- now. inflation rayshard print came out on wednesday. there are concerns that this will force the fed's hand. uncertainty believed of -- to volatility. it's a bond market that has become increasingly difficult to navigate based on volatility metrics. let me take you into the chart. i had two different volatility measures. the move index from bank of america. this is its highest since may. in white, i have another micro volatility that measures liquidity in the bond market. this is at its highest since march 2020. it measures swings in the bond market. there's a difficulty in trading with wrapping your head around the fed. you have to deal with liquidity,
spikes, making this a very treacherous environment to try to trade at the moment. let's get you to today's markets and see how those are shaping up. we are seeing flattening continue when yield curve. it's at its flattest since march 2020. will the bond vigilantes force the fed's hand? is there concern that that could derail the economic momentum? that's what we are seeing in the u.s.. the concerns in the bond market is not enough to derail the s&p 500 rally we are looking at. bloomberg dollar spot, the dreaded punch at the moment but it is still trading at its highest in about a year. we are looking at gold dropping. it's on track for its best week since may, reflecting a desire to hedge some of the inflationary story. also key at the fed is this question of whether jay powell is going to stick around for a second term. there's been a boost to his bed for that second term as fed chair.
top white house officials don't believe that his shares disqualify him from staying on. let's bring in bruce einhorn for more on this. thanks for joining us this morning. is this going to impact powell's chances of renomination, this concern about him trading last year during the pandemic? bruce: that's a good question. the issue is that chairman powell sold a stock index fund last october. keep in mind, that was outside the fed's blackout, it was months after the fed set its monetary policy for the pandemic. still, some progressives have drawn attention to these trades, trying to build the case against jay powell in the favor of brainerd. on obama appointee. the critics also point to the departure of two regional bank presidents from the fed this year following disclosures of trading last year.
there's potentially ammunition that critics could be using. people familiar say the key officials see no reason for concern over this trading. dani: do we have a timeline yet? when are we likely to hear a decision from biden? bruce: the clock is ticking. jay powell's term as chair expires in february. president biden has said that he will decide fairly quickly on his pick to be chairman. he's met with both jay powell and reynard at the white house. the treasury secretary janet yellen is a former fed chair and has endorsed powell for a second term. dani: thank you so much for staying on top of the politics of d.c. and the fed for us. that's bruce einhorn.
let's turn to china. alibaba bounce back with a record sale of more than $84 billion. it's a bright spot for the tech from which has been hurt with a $2.8 billion antitrust fund. for more, juliette saly joins us in singapore. walk us through some of the market reaction to the wider asia story. juliette: yeah. we are seeing asia stocks move higher on this alibaba number. certainly not the reaction that you saw in chinese adrs overnight. we've been seeing alibaba pullback from some of its earlier highs. jd.com a performing in the tech index, still pretty song -- strong. it has been outperforming what we've been seeing in the u.s. since 2017. this is pointing to further growth that you are expecting from the chinese e-commerce
platform. it points to the fact that they are looking towards more sustainable outlooks as well which is going to drive their growth even further. you saw buyers move-in, too. jd.com taking more market share from alibaba in the months and quarters ahead. that reflects what you see in the outlooks. look at jd.com versus food sales for alibaba. dani: thanks so much. thorough as always. let's turn our attention to the cop 26 climate conference which is entering its final hours with everything left to play for. key issues remain unsolved. maria tadeo joins us from glascow. keeping 1.5 degrees alive was the uk's key goal at cap 26. time is running out. can they still make it? >> that's the big question.
we've had two weeks of negotiations. this is now about the details, the technicalities. we are seeing diplomats and officials that do not usually take the spotlight work overnight on that communique that we are expecting could be released today. there speculation that this is not going to finish today and will run into saturday. there are some any questions here. you have big questions around the language that will be used, whether or not that 1.5 temperature check that you alluded to will feature and how intensely it will feature. there's also questions about the ambitions. the target at the beginning of the conference, many were called the big polluters to increase their targets in order to keep the temperature check. the biggest question is what to do with the carbon pricing. there's a theory that says if you want to remove carbon, you have to price it well. you have to create a global
trading ambition for carbon. that's the famous article six. whether that features in the communique is still a big question today here at cop. dani: thank you so much. that's maria tadeo in glasgow. she will be back with us, bringing us more conversations about cop 26. get over to the first word news with juliette saly in singapore. juliette: russia may be planning to invade ukraine. tensions are flaring between moscow and the eu over migrants and energy supply. washington is monitoring a buildup of russian forces near the ukrainian border. germany's angela merkel spoke with russia's president flooding your prudent for a second day in a row over the escalating situation on the eu's eastern border after belarus threatened to shut down a key pipeline carrying russian gas to the european union. the chinese president has a
mandate to potentially rule for life. he delivered the first doctrine by a chinese leader in 40 years. an official statement highlighted his comments to promote self-reliance in science and technology. the austrian region with the highest coronavirus infection rate is planning a lockdown of the unvaccinated. central europe struggles with covid. the titular has ruled out a lockdown for those who are vaccinated. beijing is asking -- more infections than at any time in the past 17 months. parts of the u.s. are starting to see the impact of an autumn wave of covid with the health care system under pressure. beyond meat shares fell the most in a year after disappointing sales projection for the fourth quarter sparked fears that growth are tapering off. it's the second time in the past month that the firm has issued
earnings guidance that failed to meet wall street expectations. global news 24 hours a day on air and at bloomberg quicktake, powered by 2700 journalists and analysts in 120 countries. this is bloomberg. dani: thanks so much. some corporate news i wanted to mention coming out a few hours ago from amc. amc continuing to lead into its meme status come into its wall street that status. the ceo tweeting that amc, their online payment will proudly accept bitcoin, ethereum, cash. they have other typical internet pays there. this is what i love. those coin is next. that's where they are going next. amc had their earnings earlier in the week and they are also considering launching their own coin. amc betting big on the cryptocurrency play.
♪ dani: welcome back. inflation in the u.s. is running at its highest in a generation with an october cpi print of 6.2%. the shock is being felt through all of global markets. let's dig into those markets. joining us now is tatjana greil castro. good morning to you. things were getting up early for us. it's a great day to have you on because this is the first reaction in the cash markets we are getting. cpi prints. what do you make of this junk we are seeing in the five year yield, up nearly 2.5 basis
points this morning? tatjana: good morning. thanks for having me. it's an early morning. yeah. it makes sense. the average was higher. yesterday was a holiday. it cannot be expressed in the treasury markets. the question is, will it continue for the central banks to continue to be transitory? the fed has done a good job to keep their options open. we need to look at the data at the moment, it is transitory but maybe not. that's favorable for the ecb and relies on their own forecasts to say whether it's transitory or not. it looks more broad-based. it's not just covid related. there are lingering changes that are causing them inflation. yeah, reacting accordingly. dani: what about the backend? we've seen the yield curve
flattened to its most since around the pandemic. is this a market that is pricing in a potential policy error and stifling the economic recovery? tatjana: that makes sense. it connects with the data we are seeing. so far, there's a narrative that the central bank is a bit more nuanced. this is a particular transitory script. there is a concern. it's difficult to lift off from zero also. if there's a slowdown in growth and a recession coming, which we are not anticipating now, there is a concern that this could happen and therefore it makes sense. maybe a little bit too much. the fear of the market. dani: how would you characterize
this difficulty of trading in the bond market? i started the show by showing a chart of not just the mood index but a measure of liquidity and yield swings as well. that's at its highest since march 2020. how would you characterize how you go about navigating the bond market in its current condition? tatjana: yeah. you nailed it really. the volatility is really difficult. it swings in large pendulums at the moment. that makes it very difficult even if you try to do hedging. clearly, it works well one day and it hurts you the next day. the volatility makes it extremely difficult. as you pointed out, liquidity has been not as good as one would expect from a liquid market. dani: how are you positioning in that type of environment? tatjana: yeah. that's the other thing. it's difficult to know where to
hide. some of our funds that have more flexibility, they did take advantage of the rally on the long end. we also have lots of strategies that are focused on the short end. what we are trying to do is buffer volatility that they carry. we are trying to maximize the carry without taking undue credit risk. we are staying in the short end but we are focused on less interest rate sensitive products and then we also try to do some hedging. that's really the combination and it's all we can do. dani: what do you make of him at this moment? we had another raft of central bank hikes coming specifically from south america and romania. romania hiking, mexico hiking. what do you make of that? tatjana: it just shows you that
emerging markets are seeing inflation very high. they are responding to their own history. even with the bank of england, not that the u.k. is an emerging market. they have higher inflation more than the u.s. and europe. those emerging market countries have very high inflation rates. in terms of overall growth rate, clearly it all feeds into an idea that there will be a slowdown in growth. dani: really great catching up with you this morning. enjoy the rest of your weekend. thanks again for joining us. coming up, we look at what's next for china's political lead. a historic mandate. this is blue bear -- bloomberg. ♪
♪ dani: welcome back. i'm dani burger in london. senior communist party officials say china has reached a new historical starting point. top leaders have paved the way for the president rule indefinitely by signing off on the first historical resolution in 40 years. let's get to stephen engle. take us through the latest from them. stephen: this historical document, if you want to call it that, has a lot of global ramifications. the last two leaders who were able to enshrine their thinking into communist party doctrine, china back then was a small economy, sealed off from the world. it is sealed off now for
different reasons, covid. it's the world's second biggest economy. it has one of the most powerful militaries in the world. it's now going to be essentially, possibly run by a single individual for the foreseeable future. with this doctrine, he essentially is giving the strongest signal yet that he will seek an unprecedented third turn -- unprecedented in the post-mao era. even potentially more. that has global ramifications on such a large economy and singular in purpose, singular in policy, singular at the top. dani: let's get into that a little bit. what does it mean for the chinese economy exactly, reinforcing these common prosperity policy goals? stephen: yeah. they would be interesting to see where the checks and balances of power will be within the halls of power in beijing. he's been very clear on what xi
's thought is. it's been emphasized by a number of regulatory crackdowns. perhaps this is linked to this power grab. the mandate that he received this year was a highly politically charged time in beijing. along with regulatory clampdown's on everything from big tech to insurance to gaming to video gaming. we've been reporting on it. whether that will be relaxed afterwards because the political tension is not so high, we are not so sure. he's consolidated his power. he may push forward even further on common prosperity and the emphasis on quality growth rather than speedy expansion of growth. dani: it's fascinating because as this is going on, as they reach this historic resolution, it was singles' day. it was a successful one as well. does this show that big tech is
still alive and well in china? stephen: of course. it's a main pillar of the economy, the new economy. the president doesn't want to kill these national champions of tech like alibaba and tencent. he wants it to play on a more level playing field. i'm sure they were little bit concerned by the wealth and the influence that individuals had accumulated. you know, jack ma and alibaba played it very low-key this singles' day. they didn't want to have that big rally, tally on a big telethon scoreboard. showing growth and merchandise value raining up $84 billion in sales. every time it clicks over, showing that jack ma and the executives are getting richer and richer. they played it low-key and they still set a new record. dani: yeah.
maybe low-key on the surface only. thank you so much. let's get a quick look on these markets. we are continuing to see the front-end of the curve rally in terms of u.s. bond markets after they were closed yesterday for the veterans day holiday. it's now all about those inflation prints. we are looking at a yield curve that's at its flattest since march 2020. we were talking with our last guest about this. she says inflation is not transitory, it is sticking around. now the market is having to wake up to that fact. our bond vigilantes going to be able to force the hand of the fed? concern around inflation, bond market gyration. the stock market continues to push higher. we are looking at the s&p 500 future session up to tens of 1%. it is similar when it comes to your your european futures index. all of that would translate into a stronger dollar.
coming up, we talk about the final day of cop 26 and the height climate summit will need to go into overtime. this is bloomberg. ♪ and there you have it. woah. wireless on the most reliable network nationwide. wow. big deal. we get unlimited for just 30 bucks. sweet. but mine has 5g included. relaaax people. my wireless is crushing it! that's because you all have xfinity mobile with your internet. it's wireless so good, it keeps one-upping itself. switch to xfinity mobile and get $200 back when you bring your own phone. or get a samsung galaxy a42 on us. call, click or visit a store today. it's another day. and anything could happen. it could be the day you welcome 1,200 guests and all their devices. or it could be the day there's a cyberthreat. only comcast business' secure network solutions give you the power of sd-wan and advanced security integrated on our activecore platform
cop 26 wraps up today. happy friday to you. you made it to the end of the week. it is all about still reacting to the hot cpi print wednesday after the u.s. bond market was closed for the veterans day holiday. it is off to the races on the front end of the curve. the five year yield up nearly three basis points this morning. that in itself has meant we are looking at a yield curve that is at its flattest since march 2020. is this the market pricing in concerns that the economic rally will be derailed if the fed has to act? another key characteristic of the bond market gyration. we are looking at nymex crude. just under $81 a barrel. set for a third weekly loss as traders i a possibility biden
might intervene. let's bring you some breaking on earnings. toshiba posting their second quarter, their operating income coming in at 30.5 billion yen. that is a miss. one of the most important things here is that toshiba set to split into three companies. they are also declaring an interim dividend every it that line of them splitting will help calm investors, perhaps not as strong as they could have been. they are also planning shareholder returns over two years. that is also an amendment to the shareholder return. toshiba seeing their second-quarter quarter operating income missing slightly. we are also getting mizuho
lines. they are seeing their full year net income, that is a beat. that is coming in at ¥530 billion. the estimate had been for ¥510 billion. that is a beat. they are also raising their full your dividend plan to ¥80 per share. it beat coming from toshiba and mizuho. let's go back to the cop 26 climate conference entering its final hours with everything left to play for. fossil fuels, global carbon markets, and big polluters to cut emissions, remain unresolved. we go to maria tadeo live with a guest. >> yes, we are still here at cop. these are the final hours. it is crunch time for the conference. we are joined by our guest.
when you look at the language in the communiqué, there is no reference to the 1.5 temperature check. would we say this is a failed cop? >> we would really like to keep the language around fossil fuels because we have been here in paris. it would be really good to keep that language in. we absolutely desperately need it to be a little bit more ambitious. either right now or we need a commitment over the next year to restate them. maria: you mentioned the targets. at the start of the conference, it was very clear that some countries would have to increase theirs. there are a number of them that have to increase their ambitions.
we were hoping china would restate some of its positions. in that agreement, they are talking about a restatement in 2025 going out to 2035. we are hoping for a little bit more ambition, but it has not quite come in. we have seen other countries. maria: you mentioned the bilateral yesterday with united states, but some argue china having missed the g20, not having been present here at cop, not committing to anything happening in the short term. it is actually a big disappointment. >> there was all that conversation about china being called a joiner. that was seen as a way to mitigate some of that. methane is in that conversation. there were statements around banning illegal imports of deforestation. there is also hope to open up
carbon markets. also because it is promising some progress, why is it so important? strip away the jargon. why is it so important to get the price of carbon right? >> number one on the side of the countries. two thirds need viable carbon markets to deliver. also, for all of us in the economic world, companies need to be able to trade carbon and we have seen a really good development in the voluntary carbon market. we have seen $1 billion already traded this year on that. yes, we really like some really juicy agreements to come out of this cop, but i think on this side, we would prefer a proper agreement that avoids double
counting, that sorts out the development mechanism for tokyo and that looks at the wider picture. then an agreement that is rather weak. dani: a lot of this feature --maria: a lot of this featured in the paris agreement. it is now about the implementation. what needs to happen in real life. how do we put this in practice? >> are we talking about carbon markets are generic? i think the conversation is developing around two classes of credits. the second one is for companies
to be able to trade them. if we can solve the problem of the pre-2020 credits, all the better. maria: i have to ask you, what is your best case scenario in terms of the communiqué? >> have to keep fossil fuels. those of the two big things that i'm really hoping for the communiqué. maria: it could happen that this is a big flop. >> we have had some really nice pledges emerge, but we need to have implementation. it is a good temperature gauge for the implementation. the nightmare scenario is it
will start to disintegrate. talking about show us that role, we need to start implementation. we need to started as soon as we close down cop 26. maria: that is the big question. many say the targets and the timing have been key. we will wait for that communiqée to see whether it is a nightmare or the best case scenario. thank you so much. dani: fascinating conversation. coming up, luxury pays off. the first half profit beat as earnings beat pre-pandemic levels. we will dig into the story next. this is bloomberg. ♪
>> i believe rich people should pay more in taxes. the question we have to deal with as a nation is coalesced around the question what should the maximum tax rate be around wealthy people? all of this talk about wealth taxes, it is all baloney. let them close the loopholes. dani: all baloney, billionaire investor leon cooperman with his views on taxation. you can see his net worth, $2.5 billion. let's get over to the first word news with the juliette saly in singapore. >> bloomberg understands the u.s. is warning europe that russia may be planning to invade
ukraine. tensions are flaring between moscow and the eu over migrants and energy supply. washington is monitoring a buildup of russian forces near the ukrainian border. germany's angela merkel spoke with russia's vladimir putin for a second day in a row over the escalating situation on the eastern border. this is after belarus threatened to shut down a key pipeline. the austrian region with the highest coronavirus rate is planning a lockdown. however, the country's chancellor has ruled out a lockdown for those who are vaccinated. beijing is asking activities to be moved online, facing more infections than at any time during the past 17 months. parts of the u.s. are starting to see the impact of an autumn wave of covid. mexico central bank has raised
interest rates by a quarter-point for a fourth consecutive meeting as it attempts to slow inflation. elsewhere, peru also tightens policy for a fourth straight month as it sees inflation accelerate. alibaba singles' day shopping festival posted record sales of $85 billion, offering china's e-commerce boost. it could ease concerns among investors grappling with a slump in the firm's shares this year. alibaba was hit with a record antitrust fine in april. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. dani: thanks so much. juliette saly in singapore. let's continue with the shopping story and turn to the luxury sector. a slew of companies reporting. richemont reporting operating profits that beat pre-pandemic
levels. for more, our senior luxury analyst joins us now. mostly through the earnings season for luxury goods, where do we stand at this moment? >> out of all the companies we are looking at, i would say 85% have beaten, another 7% have been on par. we had a couple of underperformers. if i look versus 2019, we look at that is the key metric, pre-pandemic, we are focused by year-end at about 8% to 9% underlying growth on sales. and around 17% to 18% on eps growth. dani: there has been a few outliers where it has not all
been a positive story, specifically burberry and ferragamo. what happened? >> if we think about both of these companies pre-pandemic, they were in restructured programs, it was a long restructured program, and it was hampered through the pandemic. if we think about what happened in burberry, the stock price is not growing the way that it should. that has very much impacted their q3 -- [indiscernible] they have more outlets to close. if we go to ferragamo, we are more thinking about still -10% sales growth pre-pandemic. they were the ones who really were below par. that is partly because they were
restructuring, just not quite getting it right with some of the chinese consumers. not as strong as their competitors. dani: another concern that had emanated for all of these luxury goods is we definitely heard from a lot of analysts saying china's common prosperity doctrine could have an impact, maybe these people don't want to buy ostentatious handbags anymore. that didn't exactly play through though, did it? >> no, we have had a couple. ferragamo said maybe there was this overhang in the market and subdued a little bit, but the big thing for china was still seeing growth their overall. china last year had reopened by april, may. then you have much more shift to e-commerce. even where we have had some store closures, we can't really
see for the biggest companies and the best companies what has happened in terms of common prosperity will overhang for the midterms. many are also saying it creates a great entry point. dani: certainly for any company this earnings season, if they are not a tech company, if they are asset heavy, it has bottlenecked prices moving higher that really seemed to feature heavily. how did that feature in the luxury sector this earnings season? >> the only companies that really have called out a little bit more seriously bottlenecked [indiscernible] the products produced from
vietnam. they had to work really, really hard at the entry level of luxury to make sure that their products are there. they said they are using [indiscernible] the more heritage companies, they produce everything in france, and italy, and they have very solid supply chains. we are not seeing as much of an impact as the market may have expected. dani: are they raising prices at all to combat with higher prices we have seen all around? >> yes. it is a common, annualized, and sometimes seasonalized affair that takes place, each year, half year through the lecture recycle. the top brands can always innovate. dani: deborah, thank you for joining us this morning.
dani: welcome back to bloomberg daybreak: europe. i'm dani burger in london. let's get a quick look on the commodity markets. iron ore has been fascinating. it was not that long ago we were looking at all-time highs in many commodities, but now slumping to their fifth weekly loss. the prices of raw materials swinging wildly this week beijing's property crackdown really swaying investors.
we are also looking at gold. it is on track for its best week since may. a lot of those inflationary worries making the precious metal attractive once again. finally, we are looking at nymex crude down. the questions linger over whether the white house will act to curb higher oil prices. biden saying that trying to combat some of the inflation is the white house's top concern. it is turning much political as we continue through these rallies. let's turn to another u.s. story, wall street. it is struggling to retain talent, as we have seen job hopping ramp-up. banks are trying to lure workers with eight figure salaries, but apparently that is not enough. it is no longer just about the money. eight figures, you figure that would be enough to keep people around. >> the pandemic bottled up job changes, so now you have this backlog of moves.
they are circling the big banks with these eight figure packages. it is not just about the money. lots of workers feel underappreciated after putting in all those hours in 2020 and now they are being told that it would be ugly to do all out big bonuses in a pandemic. other firms are offering better lifestyle, they are saying you can relocate, work from home, cut your hours. doesn't that sound tempting? then you have ceos like jamie dimon saying, come back to the office. rising stars are thinking they will move to other firms so that they can get their shot at the top job. it is not just at the upper echelon. you also have this at every level, especially after the black lives matter protests, you have competitions for women and minority, ethnic hires at every single level. arguably, this is a great thing, but it is an expensive issue for
banks. dani: how long will this issue last if it is expensive? i'm sure they are hoping this is not the trend. lizzy: exactly. it may not be a job hunters market for very long. lots of banks are leaning into automation so that they can trim staff. others are finding offices in cheaper locations like florida and texas. the manhattan market may cool in the future. there was a survey published this week that said almost a quarter of financial firms -- services firms are planning to cut workforces in the next half decade. that is the highest share of any industry. dani: thanks so much for staying on top of this. i have to advocate for us for eight figure salaries. [laughter] thanks so much. that is lizzy burden of bloomberg. let's get another check on these markets. i want to specifically look at your five year yield. that has been leading the bond market this morning.
you are looking at a five year yield up another two basis points. this is going to be one of the first full days that we had of reaction to that cpi print, the hottest since 1990. that has fueled the yield curve, which has hit its flattest level since the pandemic. is this a market pricing in a policy error from the fed? the concern is that the fed is going to have to slam on the brakes. it is going to have toa handbrake you turn. will that stifle economic growth because of course policy doesn't affect the market now, it affects that later? this is what you have to deal with. this is something that was pointed out to us, that trading conditions are extremely tough. liquidity is not very robust in this market. you are looking at a move index.
anna: good morning. welcome to bloomberg markets europe. i'm anna edwards live from london. mark cudmore joins me in singapore to take us through the market action. the cash trade is just less than an hour away. inflation concerns hit treasuries. yields pop after the u.s. holiday. wednesday's shock cpi print continues to ripple through markets. russian invasion fears.
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