tv Bloomberg Surveillance Bloomberg November 12, 2021 7:00am-8:00am EST
>> inflation own to be getting worse before it gets better. >> the fed isn't going to make any presumptions about how the future turns out. >> i think the fed's job here is to be the steady hand and keep their eye on the medium-term. >> we have any reaction fun thing -- reaction function and they are willing to let inflation run hot. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: it is operation get you to the weekend. for our audience worldwide, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance ," live on tv and radio. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. your equity market up 11 on the s&p, advancing 0.25%. the outlooks starting to pour out for 2022, and they feature, many of them, interest
rate hikes. tom: i've ordered the smoked turkey as we go into the thanksgiving holidays. you are absolutely right. this is the weekend of the great reset for next year. jonathan: wells fargo going with two interest rate hikes next year. "we expect multiple hikes next year to correct a policy misstep." a view they hold, but this debate is still incredibly divided. tom: can we announce the policy misstep now? i understand sell side is out there with the crystal ball to try to look at where we are going, but a ta -- but i take issue with announcing a misstep now. jonathan: many other people are, and slitting my medullary and. i will -- r, including mohamed el-erian. i will catch up with him later. lisa:lisa: as you take a look at some of the derivatives trading, people are now pricing in three full rate hikes by the first three months of 2023.
people are mapping out to rate hikes next year. jonathan: the moveon fives, 20 basis points this week. last week, this week, yields up in a big way through the curve. lisa: will the fed have to accelerate the taper of their bond purchases each month to get to quicker rate hikes? jonathan: looking ahead to next year on the bond buying program. tom: i've got a dumb question. are we auction free on a friday? lisa: we are. we already had that on wednesday. jonathan: we appreciate that. lisa is going to do the day ahead in just a moment. equity futures up to and on the s&p, advancing 0.2%.
yields are higher by two basis points on tends to 1.569 then percent. euro-dollar still with a one dollar handle, $1.1450. lisa: how much can the fed move ahead while the rest of the world is still lagging behind? at 8:30 am, president biden is participating in the asia-pacific economic cooperation leaders meeting. curious to hear what he has to say about zero covid policy in china, about the harsher crackdowns in singapore. how is he going to try to get them to reopen their economies, get global growth going at a time when people are waiting for this to become and? 10:00 -- to become endemic? 10:00 a.m. we get a data dump. we are watching the inflation expectations of consumers. it is expected to rise to the highest indicates.
we are also getting the job openings. we saw the job openings come down in the last reading, a good sign that perhaps people are starting to fill those roles. 12:00 p.m., new york fed president john williams planning to speak. how much is he going to indicate what a change at the helm of the federal reserve could mean for monetary policy, and whether the fiscal stimulus actually helped combat them, or whether they exacerbated them. jonathan: thank you. j&j going to split into two companies. destocked positive by about 4%, just sort of $170 now. tom: it is not the j&j those old or perceived. i cannot say enough about the snapshot of a company we think we know that we don't know.
households, baby oil, the powder, it is 17% of the company. it is amazing how they have de -consumered over the last 20 years. jonathan: what are we looking at, $400 billion, $500 billion market cap? it will take 18 to 24 months to split it up. tom: i just can't say enough about how the margins falter net income. jonathan: with this is john boivin -- is jean boivin of black rock. can you build on that for us? jean: as you mentioned, some are being brought pretty aggressively into 2022 now. we might see a hiking cycle in
2022, but ultimately, what is very unusual in this cycle is that the cumulative response to this kind of inflation that we haven't seen in 30 years would be much more muted, and that is going to remain very low. it is where the risk of confusion is, we think. tom: what does the fiscal impulse of this natural disaster, this pandemic, it is not in the textbooks, is it? jean: it is not in the textbooks . we took about a policy evolution , a complex of both monetary and fiscal policy moving very
aggressively. we kinda forget about this, but the debt levels are very high. the narrative in the u.s. were at record levels. the flipside of this is it won't take much in terms of raising rates. we could have beaten your back at 2.5%, and at that point, risks would be back to their historical level. to your point, it is not textbook, and it is how quickly rates go up. lisa: policymakers don't want to see rates go up too high.
does that mean the more volatile asset class is perhaps short-term yields that have very little room to remove her -- to maneuver, but could be offset by what people might speculate about policy changes, whereas stocks continue to be supported no matter what by the negative real yields that you see persisting? jean: so inconsistent with what we have seen over the last month or two. the backdrop continues to be constructive more broadly for risk assets, so i think that would be consistent with rates might be lifting at a different point in time, but overall this is going to be a hiking cycle, and if not, markets are quick to make a quick reversal of policy, which speaks to this environment we are talking about.
any rates rise will have a bigger impact. tom: i am honored to do this with your work at princeton. as you know, the great olivia blanchard of m.i.t. and the international monetary fund is out with a blistering note this morning, saying forget about team temporary, forget about team gloom. he says we need to get used to the consequences of higher inflation. what are the consequent is of sustained higher inflation as olivier blanchard mentions? jean: it feeds to the entire economy. we will see some wage dynamics, but eventually, workers will want to keep up with this inflation. it is kind of a bargaining
situation i haven't read yet olivier's piece, but i would suspect that for the last 20 years, inflation has been missing in action. the other big point is how will people react in terms of their expectations of inflation, i don't think there's good models of inflation expectations. jonathan: your thoughts, as always, fantastic. jean boys and -- jean boys and -- jean boivin, thank you. if i can guarantee you will have some people -- with the
pressure on margins, it won't be as good. that is why we are still so divided on the outlook. tom: correct me on this, but the blanchard note is absolutely blistering about let's grow up and stop with the childish media phrases look at where we are. he's focused on the economy, on finance, but our finances this year are going to be on emerging markets. jonathan: they are already making a move. it is already happening, never mind next year. tom: no question about it. jonathan: equity futures advancing zero point 2%. heard on bloomberg radio, seen on bloomberg tv, getting you to the weekend, finally. from new york, this is bloomberg. ritika: with the first word news, i'm ready. johnson & johnson will split into two companies. one we focused -- one will be
focused on drugs and medical devices. the other will be as well-known brands such as band-aids and tylenol. the drug unit was first possible for 55%. a warning from the u.s. on russia. washington has told the european union that russia may be considering an invasion of ukraine. the u.s. has been monitoring a buildup of russian forces on the ukraine border amid rising tensions between russia and the eu over fuel costs and my turn -- and migrants. the package will includes benefits for those 18 and younger. japan's economy is forecast to flip back into contraction in the quarter that ended in september. elon musk keeps selling shares of tesla. according to a new filing, the world's richest person unloaded almost $17 million of stock in the carmaker. that brings total sales this
week to about $5.7 billion. some of the trades were made under a plan established back in september. tesla is down 13% this week. the number of women enrolled in mba programs has had a record high, according to a nonprofit working to create gender equity in business. it says women make up 41% of incoming classes in 55 business schools, up from 38.5% last year. the great resignation may be one of the reasons. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪
more in taxes. the question we have to deal with as a nation is what should the maximum tax rate to be on wealthy people. all this talk about wealth taxes, it is all baloney. they need to close the loopholes. jonathan: leon cooperman there, ceo and chairman of the omega family office. your equity market up 10, advancing 0.2%. on the week, the s&p negative about 1%. looking to take some of that out around the opening bell. yields are higher, not as high as they were earlier in the session. euro-dollar is unchanged at $1.1451. crude coming in a couple of basis points -- a couple of percentage points, rather, at $80 flat on wti. tom: we are advanced this morning with jonathan ferro on his experience in continental
europe, and annmarie hordern, or bloomberg washington correspondent, who has had tours of duty in continental europe. we had a lot of topics setting you up for the end of the year into next year. out of nowhere is goofy sourcing , really strange reporting, including an excellent article by jennifer jacobs and nick wadhams on the secretary of state, ukraine and crimea. wonderful to see you this morning. we've got to rip up the script and talk about this. the ap publishing moments ago, or bloomberg story is also opaque. why is this debate about prudent, energy -- about putin, energy, belarus, crimea, why is it so opaque? annmarie: we saw a russian buildup in the spring, and that was tempered when president biden had a summit in geneva was president -- in geneva with
president putin. i am not exactly surprised. president putin has said the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the 20th century was the breakup of the soviet union. this is an individual who has his eyes on securing crimea and whatever he can get from ukraine. tom: key have come you've been there, 6 -- key have -- kiev, you have been there come a 60 miles from the border. down south is the black sea. we are showing the flag and the black sea right now. from your sources in washington, is that enough. annmarie: the kremlin is pointing to that is one of the provocations they are seeing. they are saying, we need you to step back. what the kremlin is saying is look at all of the u.s. troops in the black sea. it is interesting right now what is going on in russia particularly as well. you just had the ukrainian foreign minister meeting with
secretary blinken. they spoke about russia, what is going on. they said we don't want russia to use gas as a weapon. the crimean foreign minister was like, they already are. belarus i would say is really a big tension with poland right now. tom: the other big tension is merkel, exit stage right. lisa: the other is the energy crisis across the european continent. how much does that play into some of the tensions we are seeing with russia and ukraine? annmarie: massively. put in once the nord stream 2 -- putin wants the nord stream 2 signed and dotted. the new look at what happening in belarus. the european unit is saying to president lukashenko they need to stop pushing migrants towards the poland border. what you are seeing is very scary conditions for these migrants. freezing cold, issues potentially getting them food, and lukashenko is threatening to cut off the belarus and -- the
belarusian pipeline for gas. when you look at potentially higher energy prices, europe is already coming off of a month of crisis in terms of natural gas, and this is a chokepoint. to tom's point, angela merkel really is the interloper to president putin. they spoke already this week at least two times. this is an individual that he takes the phone calls of and listens to, and she's not going to be around very soon. lisa: when it comes to the oil situation, it is a global one, particularly as the biden administration tries to bring down gas prices. there was an article on the bloomberg about a lot of disagreement in the cabinet of president biden. how significant is that when it comes to a lack of a cohesive policy in the near term? annmarie: there's disagreement because a number of people in
the administration were brought in to make sure they can have a transition to renewable energy. he wants to be a climate president. he ran on climate change. now you have higher gasoline prices, and that just means you have to be more welcoming of the fossil fuel industry. right now there's going to be disagreements on what the next action is. anything that is decided, the president himself has to sign off. he has a massive to do list at the moment. the most likely scenario would be capping the strategic oil reserve -- the strategic petroleum reserve. the issue is potentially, it could just be short-term a band-aid. we are not even into the colder winter months, and to do it, the u.s. would really like to do it with friends. with india, with tokyo, with some of these other consuming countries feeling the pinch right now with higher gasoline prices. jonathan: is there a gucci sale? is that why you're up here? is that why you're up here?
[laughter] annmarie: there's not a gucci sale, unless tom is taking me. jonathan: thank you very much. didn't ask about the fed chair because right now, we don't really have many answers. got a response from the criminal and spokesperson out of russia, saying they did not discuss the threat with belarus and russia before they made that threat, from president lukashenko about holding back the gas. russia saying that they are and will remain a country that always fulfills its contractual commitment to deliver gas to european consumers. the reliability of russia under current and future contracts is beyond doubt. just setting the stage going into the winter months of this year. tom: we will let the markets talk. ruble weaker this morning. jonathan: a move of one percentage point, but that has not been the move of this year. there has been real ruble strength so far. tom: well said. this is the partition of what we see in ruble dynamics from something really ugly like a
9.94 turkish lira as it read its near a 10 level. those are different stories. jonathan: things are tense. that is pretty obvious as we close out this year. lisa: and the backdrop of the energy crisis making things more tense as people try to fortify their pipelines, fortify their modes of getting oil and gas. i do wonder how quickly this changes next year, if you start to see supply come back on and demand normalize with the normalization of the global economy. jonathan: bottom line, we are talking about this and not the end of cop. isn't that what russia wants? lisa: not only russia, but saudi arabia. that they are being asked to pump more oil at the same time world leaders are trying to figure out how to rid the world of oil. jonathan: your equity market up 10 on the s&p 500, advancing 0.2%. this equity market has a lift to close out the week after a week of losses. it is very much still on the
♪ jonathan: live from new york this morning, good morning. equity futures up 0.2% on the s&p, on the week down 1%. it is a little bit of a bounce after a weekly loss going into the opening bell. here's the bond market story. on the week, twos intends up by more than 10 base -- twos and tens up by more than 10 basis points. wells fargo looking for two hikes next year, two hikes the year beyond that. that is why you see the two-year back through 50 basis points again. on the to you this morning, up to about 0.53%. that's the bond market picture.
here's the story for foreign-exchange. let's get to euro-dollar. the highs of the year, 1.2327. we are down about 7% since then on this currency pair. euro-dollar right now, $1.1454. kit juckes wraps it up over at socgen perfectly. he basically says we have an inflation dynamic that is crying out for tighter monetary policy. in europe, we do not, and for that reason, he things euro-dollar is heading lower from $1.1455, which is where we are right now. tom: maybe a shout out to jordan rochester of nomura as well, who games this correctly. i wonder if we get a reset where all of a sudden, on dollar $.12 is the new one dollar 14 since. jonathan: it seems obvious, but that is why i started the commentary with the start of the year, january 6, when we saw the high of the year.
people thought it would go higher from there. they were looking for that cyclical trade to kick income of the sink and i's global growth story, and a weaker dollar off the back of it. now we've got comfortable with the opposite as we look for the euro to move more negatively of the back of maybe divergent monetary policy. all and it was that every year we play this game, this affects market can push the other way, and it can be painful. tom: it has been a resilient dollar. jonathan: euro-dollar, $1.15. let's get you some movers this morning and say good morning to romaine bostick. romaine: the big mover of the morning's johnson & johnson, making that announcement that it is going to split into two companies. one is going to include the pharmaceutical business and the medical devices business, and then of course, that consumer business going to be spun off as a standalone company. nowhere yet on how much this is going to cost and who is going to lead that consumer business. shares moving higher here. the ceo has been talking up the benefits of having this sort of
three-tiered model, and this will persist for a much longer time. there's a lot of questions as to why they overlap those businesses. there could be a play later to spin off that device business. we are talking about two separate companies at least, seeing 18 to 24 months. it is interesting to see how we see that consumer-products businesses once it gets spun off and what ends up happening to that medical device business. also in the deals space with farfetch, richemont has kind of given up here on the strategy it has had to create more of an online platform for some of its brands. it is basically now in a deal with farfetch to take off some of those online businesses and effectively run themselves. richemont will still hold the majority stake, but richemont
will be the -- but farfetch will be the primary beneficiary. those shares up about 12% now. keep an eye on tesla here. shares flat on the day. basically another billion dollars worth of shares out of a lawn musk. a few endless movers to keep, nvidia down after a downgrade earlier this morning. this is primarily a valuation call. nvidia was up about 50% in the last week alone. did you have penn national gaming, also a valuation call because of the 60% drawdown on shares going back to its peak. hewlett-packard actually downgraded to sell today. over at goldman sachs, some interesting commentary about a potential slowdown in i.t. spending. keep an eye on hpe. tom: right now, seema shah,
investment strategist with principal investors. you are bold at the beginning of the year, saying you might not be on board with em, but the beleaguered em has your attention. tell me about the win of diving into em. what do you need to see to generate belief in emerging markets? seema: the key thing is china. we look at the emergence of -- we look at the emerging markets on the vaccines and the shift away from zero covid in a number of countries, and compared to a lot of emerging markets, emerging asia not having as significant rate hikes, but really, we need to see some kind of movement with her guards to stimulus, potentially a bottoming of growth, and the
problem here is that we don't know when that will happen. unfortunately, i don't thick anyone is able to call that, so the only thing we can do here is stay ready on the sidelines, waiting to increase that exposure because valuations have become more attractive. we just need china to play ball. jonathan: what is your read on how far down the road we are on these tightening cycles? are we close to done yet? seema: we are almost at the end. brazil, i think they are going to move quickly, and then we should normalize by the middle of next year. i think they're going to be finished with their rate hikes, go to prepend him at levels before the fed gets going. we have to take that into consideration, so i think developed markets aren't really moving faster towards their normalization process, but as the emerging markets start to look a little bit more attractive at that point. lisa: however, there is the
issue of the dollar. what happens if the federal reserve does hike twice or three times in the next 18 months? how much does that potentially crimp the bet you are making? seema: we are not expecting earning hikes until the end of next year because they will look at that inflation tension, but from there on, you have quite a shadow of trajectory. looking at the debt market, we don't see very significant moves, so i think there's upward movement on the dollar, but i think it is to appoint that it starts to strengthen emerging markets. i know investors will be really concerned about how emerging markets with that tapering, and at the same time, investors looking at emerging markets thinking there is a far more creditable -- far more credible monetary policy, i think this is
a slightly more stable emerging market from previous years. lisa: why then are you seeing potential wobbles in the equity markets, considering there is an inflation trade and constructive narrative around the rest of the world? seema: even for the united states, we are looking at growth slowdowns, but we are still expecting growth to be around trend, if not above trend. this isn't a very negative outlook at all. we need to keep a very close eye on that, but when we look at the earnings season just gone, i think equity markets have generally been really encouraged by the signs that there is continued strong demand. we are expect and low returns through 2022 and a number of markets, including europe and the u.s., but are we looking at negative returns? absolutely not. tom: what is the correlation to weak dollar? basically, em investors are standing around waiting for a weak dollar. is that all this is about? seema: i think emerging-market
investors are watching for china. it is too big to ignore. it has to be something that is working for them. as it move away from em and asia , where evaluations are starting to look more attractive, i think they should be ready for that opportunity. when china does start to pull back from the various regular that has introduced. . jonathan: thank you as always. good to catch up on emerging markets right now. when you take the msci emerging market index, tencent is about 4.5% of the index. alibaba is another 4% of the index. there's a big china bet embedded in our universe. lisa: we talk about the fact that china is going to be forced to ease policy because of what is going on with respect to home
developers, with respect to their zero covid policies. is this something that makes china more attractive? jonathan: if you go ask china, there's opportunities out there. if you look at the benchmark, we are down 0.4% year to date so far. tom: i am by no means an expert on this, but it is amazing how the conversation has shifted to a focus on china. i am going to read stephen englander, thierry wizman, absolutely lights out, phenomenal. i still go to the overwhelming coefficient as weak dollar. jonathan: your equity market up nine on the s&p 500, advancing 0.2%. as we inched towards the weekend , your bond market is shaping up as follows. yields up by a couple of basis points. you know where the conversation is this week. it is on one thing, a big cpi print in america and what it
means for the federal reserve. when do we find out about who leads this federal reserve. tom: it has been sort of a relief. this weekend? lisa: we have nothing to say. that is the reason why. jonathan: we had some reporting that indicated some of the stocks trading would not be part of the decision as to whether to give chairman powell a second term or not. so that apparently won't count against him, according to some of the reporting we have done. tom: i 5:00 p.m. today? i don't know. jonathan: it's got to be a package, right? it is not just him. lisa: the fact that that is the only guidance we are getting, and anonymous millie -- and anonymously sourced story, tells you how late we are, frankly. jonathan: we are waiting for a decision from this white house on the federal reserve porcelli of rbc is going to join us shortly. -- on the federal reserve. tom porcelli of rbc is going to
join us shortly. this is bloomberg. ritika: oil is heading for its longest run of weekly losses since march. president biden is keeping investors guessing whether they will intervene to hold down prices that have heard consumers. the price of gasoline in the u.s. has had a seven-year high. the president is considering a number of moves, including the release of oil from the strategic petroleum reserve. one of the messiest spats among democrats, the state and local tax deduction known as salt. democrats in high tax states want to expand it as part of president biden's economic plan. progressives are opposed. donald trump has got a court when to shield his presidential diaries, call logs, and other records for now. a federal court of appeals has granted the former president's request to keep materials from being leased -- from being
released to a congressional committee. the climate summit in glasgow talks have run into new obstacles. country disagree on how to account for emissions credits will get sold. there are less than 24 hours to go before the summit is set to pack up. in florida, a dolphin that started -- that started in the "dolphin tale" movie has died. the movie chronicled her recovery. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg.
we need more truckers. we need more warehouse workers. we just need to be more fluid so that we can match supply of capacity with demand from consumers. jonathan: jobs data coming up a little bit later. that was lance fritz, the ceo of union pacific. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. your equity market positive 0.2%. yields higher by a couple of basis points to 1.57%. the data at the neck like a.m. eastern time, it is jolts and umich. lisa: the resilience there actually giving some people even more optimism. jonathan: job openings running at 10.4 million in america right now. tom: michael mckee cares about the jolts data. jonathan: looking forward to it, a couple of hours away. tom: this is the harmonic of david wilson's career.
he says, who is out there smart, doing some thing smart? he's made a career of it, as he has so many times with the gentlelady from charles schwab. you saw liz ann sonders yesterday. lights out. dave: absolutely. what we are talking about are inflation-adjusted or real earnings yield on the s&p 500. you figure, the index at about 2.5 times earnings, that works out to an earnings yield of 3.9%. problem is, the consumer price index data that we got this week shows inflation running at 6.2% for the latest 12 months, so you put the two together and you get the most negative real earnings yield on the s&p 500 going back to 1957, when that index was introduced. tom: this is a radio event we are at right now. what happens after you spiked down? dave: that becomes the issue
because the previous record was set in march 1974. you had a bear market going on. you had a recession going on. clearly the circumstances now are different because eve got an expanding economy, and s&p 500 that has been setting records, so the real question is do you get the reversal, and does it come perhaps because inflation does prove transitory at the federal reserve might like it to be? tom: over the weekend, figure out who the next j&j, ge is. i got to make some money. speaking of johnson, dr. fazeli is in the house come our senior pharmaceutical analyst. sam fazeli, did j&j do this because of litigation? sam: that speculation is going to have to happen because it has been years that they have been asked, why don't you split the company up? so you're going to have to speculate about that.
but honestly, i don't really care. this is the right thing to do. i am glad they are doing it. this business had no synergies between shampoo and getting high-tech drugs that treat difficult cancers. so it never should have been together, and i am just glad they're doing it. you see the results of the share price. tom: do you imagine this will go across all of western and global pharmaceuticals, including troubled companies like glaxo? sam: glaxo has already decided they are going to get the two companies split, and glaxo doesn't have any more to do after that. j&j, by biggest question is why not move out of medical devices? put that in a separate company, too. lisa: why now? sam: as i said, i am really happy they are doing it. maybe it has to do with the issue of litigation, but honestly, each of these businesses is now definitely big enough to be very significant
players. lisa: also the idea that johnson & johnson has the inferior shot to combat covid, the idea that it's inoculation was not as successful as others from moderna and pfizer. how much does mrna development, the idea of trying to get on the cutting edge of biopharmaceuticals part of this as well? sam: i really don't think they are related. the j&j vaccine, the reason it not showing the same level of efficacy is simply because it is a single shot. everybody talked about it or get it was the right thing to do perhaps at the time for them, get this vaccine out, single shot, prevent as many deaths and hospitalizations as possible. but you can't just get away with one. it looks like you can't even get away with just two. i'm looking forward to seeing more information as they develop their vaccine platform. tom: the romance of the business , it has all drifted away into a
modern competitive world. when does amazon show up to do the distribution of all three divisions? sam: for the prescription level pharmaceuticals, it is still going to be quite difficult. amazon is already there. i by my acid reflux tablets off of amazon because it is the cheapest. so i think that is definitely a company you can get together. tom: if lisa bothers me, do i have to take acid reflux tablet s? [laughter] sam: i hope you never have to do that, tom. lisa: how important is this breakup either as a harbinger of what is to come, or a statement on the nature of this industry? sam: i think they are probably
being pushed by their shareholders to say if glaxo can do it, why can't you do it? why can't you split this behemoth into the segment where you get you a -- where you get value add? i think they are the last ones to do it. maybe sanofi, but they are small compared to these guys. they're really kind of at the end of the queue now. jonathan: sam fazeli, that stock is down in the premarket. let's set the stage for the next hour on "bloomberg surveillance ." coming up, dan morris of bnp paribas asset management and christian mueller-glissmann of goldman sachs. tom: i am glad you bring that
up. it is november 15 of this year, and it is still about making money. it is still about what do i buy. it is still the heart of what we do. jonathan: the outlook, but will it feature? higher rates? cpi in and around 5%? lisa: the biggest bearish call you're going to get is wobbles in the s&p that will be viable dips and that will prevent anything from falling out of bed. i'm not hearing any catastrophic calls. jonathan: when do we get your outlook? lisa: on december 31 of that year. [laughter] jonathan: looking back. tom: it's up to 64 pages now. she's doing a powerpoint. it's going to be 272 pages. jonathan: a monthly subscription to the abramowicz bears.
>> in this negative yielding world we are and, all roads still need to equities. >> real yields are at historically low levels, and those levels can persist. >> the way to beat higher rates or inflationary pressures is with record high profitability. >> liquidity is coming into the market still, and it is making its way around to a high variety of asset classes. >> ripping away stimulus and slimming on the brakes probably won't be good for anybody in the global economy. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. tom: