tv Bloomberg Daybreak Europe Bloomberg November 18, 2021 1:00am-2:00am EST
>> a very good morning from the bloomberg new economy forum in singapore. this is "bloomberg: daybreak europe." these are the stories that set your agenda. china leads losses in tech, with alibaba due to report later today. crude on the prospect of the u.s. and china tapping strategic reserves. u.s. relations dominate
discussion of the u.s. economy forum. the prime minister of singapore is said tensions over taiwan are a cause for concern. and more interviews from the nef in singapore, we bring you more from our conversation with the microsoft founder, bill gates and noah quinn. markets are moving, even though we are in singapore. we go to the equity markets. goldman sachs, a message from paul solomon who remembers when it was for basis points. it was not good. equity markets could be in for a bumpy ride. he sees mark markets which are driven by greed's. greed is always overcome by a bit of fear. could it be an interest-rate hike that comes more aggressively the market is down by .7%. would they really coalesce to the drawdown from the strategic reserve? that could be a shock. unlikely, but could be a
shock. time for day four in a row. inflation. the narrative is alive in the u.k. regardless of what the narrative debate is from andrew bailey. the market will test the metal through the currency prism rather than the short end of the curve. to the dollar, king dollar, off of a one-year high. with interest rate moves coming, i want to show you the steep lurch. this is the message from the markets and the short end of the yield curve is where you want to be. they believe you will get aggressive repricing in the markets then you currently believe. this is predicated on the inflation narrative. typically, there is a 25 bit move every time the fed would have gone. so far, we are pricing 18 basis points into the june contract of next year. citi and morgan stanley say it will double your money between june 22, 25. that is the narrative from the biocides on the street.
we are here, day two of the new economy forum. a lot of conversations and the major themes. that comes down to the tensions between taiwan and the u.s., and china. the holy trinity. singapore's prime minister spoke to our editor-in-chief. >> we should be concerned. i don't think it will go overnight, but it is a situation where you can have a mishap or a miscalculation and be in a very delicate situation. manus: no more overnight is the message. another thing came through in this conference clearly. the economic reopening. let's listen to what bill gates had to say. >> the vaccines are very good news. the supply constraints will be largely solved as we get out in the middle of next year.
and so we will be limited by the logistics and the demand. the idea that economic activity will resume in full once you get to flu levels, it is very likely. manus: he had that conversation with bill gates, that is our editor-in-chief. good to see you. great dinner last night. great conversation with the prime minister of singapore on stage. two words i have written down, de-escalation and decouple. we heard the prime minister say he did not expect us to have any explosive moments near-term. encapsulate from me what you walked off of the stage with. >> i was rather interested by the fact that he spelled out clearly where that basic underlying tension, which the way he described it, i'm then paraphrasing him, was on the one
hand you have america, which regardless of -- still takes a moralistic view of china that china is not a space that is democratic and needs to be held back. on the other hand, you have china, -- the country's decline, and we are on the rise, forget about them. as long as that survives, and they start to go at all, it will be a very different relationship. manus: the other thing between the prime minister and kissinger was the ability to talk to one another and agree, but agree to disagree. the 20%? >> you choose the zones where there isn't -- there will never be agreements, so you keep it on and get on. it is important for us, it is
necessary to mention human rights, and you should not go past those, but in terms of the areas where you can do deals, greenery, cyber warfare, maybe nukes, these are all good things which you don't necessarily want china to let its record get in the way of. manus: the message, i was listening to hank paulson, echoing the conversation from last night from the prime minister about finance. strong finance together. whether that is singapore, the united states, and china is imported when it comes to moments of great angst in the world. but your conversation on singapore and hong kong i thought were particularly interesting. >> he made the point that on hong kong, we should not necessarily see their loss as singapore's gain. but i think many of us would
look and say the more china messes up hong kong, the more likely it will be that people move -- more people to singapore, singapore being the most obvious gainer. his point was it was not a zero-sum game, as a whole, it was more on singapore's interest that hong kong did well. i point out it was with the british should've talked about the french, or vice versa. he came back at me rather amusingly about it. the point is yes, i think he is being a little bit disingenuous. you can certainly feel the sense that this is the place that is rising in asia, at hong kong's expense. but on the other hand, i think he is right, if things go seriously wrong in hong kong, it will not help anyone. manus: and he emphasized the chinese have hong kong because they want it to be special and
different, something they may be don't want to lose. some conversations we had last night were about the growth, the prospects for 2022. gina raimondo was here. we know that cppp -- >> the world 's least pronounceable trade deal. i failed several times last night. manus: the editor-in-chief, he is forgiven. but on the other hand, there is a solution in the past couple of weeks about u.s. foreign policy in regards to trade. i think xi said it more clearly. -- she said it more clearly. >> she added more to it. asia wants america to be part of -- let's just call it the tpp -- the revised tpp. that is the obvious thing they want. american politics are such that it is impossible. gina raimondo -- i think part of the skill as a politician is she
is trying to sell -- she is arriving and saying i cannot offer you a trade deal, but i can offer you these other things. from in asia point of view, it is a bit of -- you are getting a bit more digital stuff here, a bit of these things, but i think some people here think a, she is trying, and they haven't done much of that. b, she is giving up some of the more useless tariff wars with japan over steel and things like that. and the other thing, maybe there is something in this, but by any measure, i think we should did ourselves on the world's point of view, and singapore -- america not being part of the trade discussions is hurting. it is also hurting in regards to china. the other thing which came through yesterday, you had the vice premier of china making a speech here and mentioning the word "multilateral" again and again. singapore's prime minister was
good at saying china's multilateralism seems to be we will all sit in a room, but one of us will speak slightly more louder than others. but more the same, the fact china, even after trump, is still trying to hang onto the idea they are the multilateral, is something from un-american point of view that is a concern -- an american point of view is a concern. manus: he said yes, i would like to put some people forward to run these multilateral agencies, as well. i can't help but go back to henry kissinger. you will be the kissinger barometer. we are on the precipice -- he fully hedged himself yesterday, started the conversation, went on to qualify. the interesting words where he talked about we need equivalent rather than dominance. it is like trying to find a good offramp. >> there is a similarity between what he is saying. said it in different ways.
both of them are saying it is good news that it acts as a truce of sorts, which we should add from our point of view means some journalists may be allowed in and things like that. they are good things. it is good he is talking about them. but don't underestimate the level to which there is an underlying problem. the prime minister pointed out that between the two different attitude the set up was we were on the foothills of the cold war, then talked about being on the high mountain pass. now he said we are on the edge of a precipice looking to ways. i give him a little bit of wiggle room, but it would be easy him to say we have come down the mountain a little bit. but i don't think he thinks that. so we have this man who has sat there. and the other consistent thing
between him and singapore is both of them are slightly saying there are areas where you totally disagree. so there are these areas which it would be good for the world and quite good for singapore economically. and i think that -- regardless of what you think of china's human rights and other things, which i feel passionately about. regardless of that, i think there is a case to be made from a lot of things to do with it, including global warming and things it does make an enormous amount of difference, the two main powers of this world cooperating. manus: thank you very much. thank you for inviting us along. it has been great to see everybody in the one place at the one time. we appreciate that. our editor in chief on the very latest 24 hours here in singapore.
got the right country. coming up on the show, an exclusive conservation -- conversation. right here from the new economy forum. >> we will shift gears and get straight to annabelle. she is in hong kong with the first word news. >> many european governments adding new restrictions on the unvaccinated as they battle a wave of covid infections. germany reports 50,000 cases in a day. they are limiting workplace access to people who are vaccinated, recovered, or provide a negative test. belgium is reinstating work from home four days a week, despite opposition from some business groups. the ecb's vice president says inflation should slow next year, but -- a few months ago. he told bloomberg even price pressures would prove the current bout of inflation is transitory.
he doesn't expect the ecb to raise rates for at least a year. >> we will see what happens over the next months with the economy, the inflation. but my personal view is going to be quite -- >> boris johnson is said to have held a private gathering of lawmakers that he driven a car into a ditch. this after two weeks of negative news stories for his party. after the meeting, the house of commons voted to adopt the u.k. prime minister's -- rules and second jobs for politicians. opposition parties calling for reform. amazon is said to be shifting the program to u.s. credit cards and mastercard and is simmering tensions with visa. the realtor -- retelling two in
the u.k. starting next year. despite advances, some companies payment fees continue to stay high. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and at quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. manus: thank you very much. i'm most definitely in singapore. coming up, the inflation concerns arising. we hear from the newsmakers that we have spoken to about the surge in prices around the world. that is next.
>> i think inflation is getting to be a lot more structured. pick up prices of 6% or 7%. and once inflation expectations get anchored, then you get into the spiral. >> i think at the same time, as the supply chain is recovering, there are new issues. supply chain is repositioning because of geopolitics, because of resilience considerations, oil prices are going to remain high for quite a while. >> when i think about my career, there have been periods of time when greed far outpaced fear. we are in one of those periods
of time. given it feels like inflation is a trend, rates will move up, interest rates moving up will take some of the exuberance out of certain markets. manus: a number of new makers -- manus: a number of newsmakers talking to us about inflation concerns through the past 24 hours. my guest is alan higgins. a very good day to you. i take you straight to the goldman sachs warning. in his 30 years, he has seen many periods of greed, followed by a little bit of fear. how greedy do these markets on the equity side look to you? >> good afternoon to you. i agree with them. it has been an extraordinary period. not just in equities, but in credit or risk assets in general. when it comes to equities, you
like to think in calendar years. this has been a rare year where we have not had a chance to send a correction in markets. yet interest rates, they could well be the catalyst. it looks like the u.k. is going to go here in december. maybe it can be a mini catalyst to get a correction. but it is tough predicting. i'm pretty sure goldman strategy is sustain long equity. that is right for the long-term. i get where he is coming from. manus: what does long-term look like for you? i put this question to a number of different people. what would 150 basis points of interest rate hikes due to the overall risk environment? many people have been aggressively pushing back on me, saying how silly i am that it would unseat the equity rally. i've seen an equity rally on less. what would a short-term shock,
let's say a faster taper -- would a faster taper in the u.s. deliver a kickback or correction in equity markets? would it be healthy? >> i think it would be healthy. i think you are onto something. above the taper could be the way to go. it has gotten itself into a straitjacket. they said they will not raise rates until they stopped qe, which takes them all the way to june. so you can see a scenario which they increase it. we have to step back a bit. this is emergency monetary policy. if you pull up on the bloomberg terminal, financial conditions indices, it is at record looseness. take away some of its emergency measures that we have in monetary policy, whether it is rates or qe, or to quote a very age-old fed president, take away the punch bowl now.
manus: it is interesting you talk about fed presidents, onstage, solomon reminisced -- you will remember this -- it was 9094 a -- 1994, a volcker moment. i have referred to this on a couple of occasions, that is a very aggressive move in the rates market. i want to show the curves and the june 2022, june 2025. citigroup and morgan stanley are saying you can get to 250 basis by 2025. the market is underpricing the terminal rate. do you agree? how can you position around it? do you position around a rates market for that type of underpricing? >> if i was there in 1994, i was a bond manager. that is another discussion. we have booked good evidence from this from the 2017-2018 fed
hike. we got to 2.5%. it did the opposite, it really tightened financial conditions. it closed at the time, and it was a very tough time. so i would say 2.5% in the anglo-saxon economy is actually the maximum. the fact is, the days of getting a premium real interest rate are gone forever. we are talking about inflation getting to 2%, 2.5 percent, and you get to zero real yields. i would say maxing out, in terms of rates. manus: on the equity side, which is obviously where the majority of the allocation comes from, a number of notes have come through saying trim back your u.s. equity, go longer on japan,
we some more stimulus in japan. and go longer of europe in a relative sense. does it make sense as you look forward to 2022? >> betting against the u.s., that has been a tough call for many years. i have sympathy for it. but it is trading at 12 times earning, it is quite incredible. when i started, it was 80 times earning. 12 times earnings for the japanese equity market, i can see some reason. is it time to carry on with rotation? starting the year into that, because that is a value trade, europe and japan. i think it has some legs. it's got further to go. what we have forgotten is the economic background for next year is still robust. what is slowing right now after a huge recovery, but we are
manus: good morning from the new economy forum in singapore. i'm manus cranny. it is "daybreak: europe." the stories that set your agenda. a chinese stocks and the tech side lee losses in asia with alibaba due to report later. crude on the prospect -- crude falling on the prospect of the china and u.s. tapping strategic reserves. u.s.-china relations dominate
the new economy form. the play minister of singapore says tensions over taiwan are cause for concern. more top interviews from the nef in singapore. the very latest on our conversations from the hsbc ceo and microsoft founder bill gates. a quick snapshot of the local markets. volatility in currencies. $65 trillion of tramiel and -- stimulus due to be delivered. volatility in the yen. dollar-yen trade. down ever so slightly from a four year low. the aussie dollar up .8%. the geopolitical narrative improving between the u.s. and china. wondering what australian-china conversation looks like. gas, oil, iron ore, and oil down by 1%. could china and u.s. really go for a joint strategic reserve
draw? the special petroleum reserve was drawn down by 3.1 million barrels. there is a draw by stealth in oil, we are down by 1%. we spoke exclusively with the hsbc ceo, noah clean here at the new bloomberg economy forum on a range of issues, including china. he said the world cannot decouple from china, which is still the world's biggest manufacturing hub. >> the world's economy is recovering. it is recovering well. there are tensions in the supply chain. we should not be surprised by that. we went fast reverse, now we are going fast forward. there will be friction for a period of time. but take it is a positive the economy is recovering and economies are rebounding. if i don't look at the concerns for the future, i'm concerned
about inflation. i think at the same time as the supply chain recovery, there are new issues. supply chains are repositioning. partly because of geopolitics. partly because of resilience considerations by governments. oil prices will remain high for quite a while. because there is constrained supply. the investment part of loose sustainable infrastructure will have a premium in the near term. >> are you worried about shocks or monetary mishaps? what does it mean for big bank? >> i think controlling inflation will be a fine art as opposed to a science. i thing we will have to make careful judgment calls in the central banks over the next few weeks and months. as to how they keep the balance between economic recovery and making sure inflation doesn't get out of control. and i think they will do that through pulling back on qe and progressive, gradual increases in interest rates. and i think countries will move
at different times on that. it will be about balance. >> we just heard from the treasury secretary, it is almost impossible for the u.s. and china to decouple. how do you read the chinese economy now? >> the chinese economy has been big as a manufacturer of the world for many decades. it is also huge as a consumption market for the future. i don't think the world can decouple from one of the biggest manufacturer nations of the world and what will be one of the biggest consumption markets in the world. i really hope it doesn't decouple. there will be differences in views on technology, differences in views on politics, but i think it is important there is a level of connectivity between the world and asia, and between the u.s. and china. >> in general for your work business, how many do you see? trajectory upwards, in terms of how you go? >> for us, it is continuous
investment. we already have a strong platform in hong kong. we are one of the biggest wealth managers in hong kong. we have over $1.6 trillion of assets under management, wealth assets under management. whether it is an private banking, asset management, the retail operations. now for me, it is about a continuous investment program. i guided the market where we were going to spend $6 million over the next couple of years. $3.5 billion is building out our wealth business within asia. and we will do that across all of asia. i think there is a wealth of opportunities in hong kong still. china definitely. singapore, absolutely. also india. that will be a combination of organic investment, recruiting people, and in singapore, we brought a business, or in the process of buying a business, bringing that business together with our insurance business.
we have a much more powerful wealth proposition in singapore. i'm looking at three or four other opportunities as full-time acquisitions over the next few months across asia. >> have you spoken to hong kong authorities so you don't have to do a quarantine every time you come back? >> i'm not planning a trip at the moment. i think it is important for hong kong to establish what they need to establish with china on reopening the hong kong-china border. i don't want to do anything that might jeopardize that. i would love to get to hong kong as soon as i can. and go back, i will do. manus: hsbc group ceo noah quinn -- noel quinn speaking to francine lacqua in singapore. annabelle droulers has your first word news. >> many european governments adding new restrictions on the unvaccinated as they battle a wave of new covid infections.
germany reported 50,000 cases in a day. it is limiting workplace access to people who are vaccinated, recovered, or provide a negative test. belgium is reinstating work from home for four days a week, despite opposition from business groups. the ecb's vice president says inflation should slow next year, but not as quickly as expected a few months ago. they said easing price pressures will curb the current -- prove the current out of inflation is transitory, he doesn't expect the ecb to raise rates for at least a year. cisco has given a lackluster revenue forecast, lending supply chain issues for component shortages. the biggest maker of computer networking equipment says it is increasing by a maximum of 6.5%, .5% below forecast. cisco is try to reduce reliance on hardware sales and boost offerings of software and internet services instead. nvidia has given an update
fourth quarter forecasts. the chip giant expects revenue to hit $7.4 billion during the period. more than half $1 billion in estimates. revenue growth over the last eight quarters, pushing the market cap way beyond intel. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and at quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. manus: thank you very much. coming up on the show, under pressure. oil slides on the prospect of the u.s. and others tapping the strategic reserves. a concerted effort when we debate.
manus: i'm manus cranny in singapore. markets are moving, the oil market extending is decline from a six week low. investors embracing a possibility of coordinating a release from the strategic reserves in the u.s. and on their nations, including china. andrew james is tracking the story for bloomberg energy and commodities. much talked about in the u.s.. now there is relief of oil by stealth, what can you tell us? >> we just recently had confirmation china is doing some sort of release.
we don't know if it will be coordinated with the u.s., although it comes a couple of days after the summit in which the issue was discussed. the u.s. might do one as well. i think the point is these releases will have to be pretty large to move the market. global oil consumption is about 100 million barrels a day. china did a small release in september of 97 million barrels a day, which didn't have any discernible impact. we will have to wait and see how big these releases are. manus: it is interesting. daniel jurgen was with yousef the other day. and he was very clear with his strategic trillium releases were a folly. it was a grave misunderstanding of what is driving the market. but in terms of a coordinated, a
significantly coordinated event, what size does it need to be, and is there a real possibility for this narrative building? and we don't quite know all of the outcomes, do we? >> as i said, it would need to be very big to move the market, whether it is coordinated or not remains to be seen. there is a bit of a lack of consensus of where oil prices are hidden from here. -- heading from here. opec has been talking about constantly returning to surplus. the iea saying the markets should become tight. at the same time, other people -- said recently, 100 dollar oil is a possibility. a very mixed signals coming out of russia. the energy ministers saying there was no oil shortage. then a couple of days later,
talking about $120 a barrel. there is a lack of consensus about where prices are heading. looks like the political pressure on joe biden is rising and he may do something. china looks like it may do something. the big question is how big these releases are. they could end up being more symbolic, just a message to opec-plus that we are frustrated that you are not returning supply to the market fast enough. manus: i just had a conversation with ian bremmer, or he made it clear that biden's policy in america on oil perhaps leaves him in a weak position, perhaps having to lean in and ask opec-plus to help him out. and whether the m.r.i. these move out. we do some cracking in what is trading. oil demand back to where it was in 2019.
a lot of people talking about $100 oil. $250 call options trading. is there any consensus about where we might go? >> i think we can probably say the supply pressure may ease a bit. that could only be short-term. so there really is a bit of a lack of consensus. biden's power to really influence the market is pretty minimal. there was a great column a few days ago by liam denning in which he described the u.s. president as more -- when it comes to oil prices. no one really knows where oil prices are. and the impact of these reserves may not be that big. manus: that is a cracking line. a bit like henry kissinger. he said he wasn't a psychotherapist of everything
the chinese did. thank you so much. andrew james with the very latest on the drop of the price in oil. this morning off of the back of this spac story that we will see a concerted release from reserves in china and the u.s. the new economy forum in singapore. covid-19 remains top of mind. concerns around the world. they continue impacting lives. hampering economies. bill gates is the founder of microsoft and cochair of the bill and melinda gates foundation. he said covid might get to flu levels by the mid of 2022. >> the vaccines are very good news. the supply constraints will be largely solved as we get out into the middle of next year. so we will be limited by the logistics and the demand.
in a lot of countries, it is not clear what the demand level will be. ironically, in a country like many in sub-saharan africa, where the epidemic hasn't been as visible, demand for the vaccine is challenging to generate. but we will do the best we can on it. the other thing that is pretty impressive is merck and pfizer have oral antivirals that the merck drug, we have been able to reformulate to be less then eight dollars. so we will be able to have anyone whose age or medical condition makes them have significant risk immediately begin what is called presumptive treatment as soon as they test positive. between natural immunity, vaccine immunity, and these oral
treatments that can scale up in a way that the antibodies never did, the death rate and disease rates should be coming down dramatically. by next summer, getting ready to be quite a bit lower than the average seasonal flu level. assuming there is no surprise variants, which the evidence is it is not that likely. >> what do you think -- you just mentioned summer. what do you think victory looks like? is it effectively taking covid back? you also mentioned the flu. is it effectively making it a kind of flulike disease? i know it is, but is it the kind of notion of what a victory is in your brain? >> things are fairly binary. death rates driving were 10 time what they are, people might think --
the flu was accepted. the average figures of life lost for flu and covid is about eight years, because it is so prevalent in the elder versus the young. we expect about a 60,000 average per year. i happen to think as part of the tools, innovation to avoid the next pandemic, we should eradicate the flu, as well. because it's mutations are another source of -- a significant source of future pandemic risk. but the idea that economic activity will resume in full once we get to flu levels, it is very likely. we will have some hotspots where you will have to have nonpharmaceutical interventions, or huge incentives for people to
get protected. manus: bill gates speaking to our editor-in-chief on the bloomberg new economy forum earlier today. you can pick it up at any of the digital platforms. coming up, president erdogan continues to demand lower interest rates. take a look at turkey's currency. battered and bruised. we check out the economy right here on daybreak: asia europe." -- daybreak: europe."
summit. the focus in brussels is going to be on increasing digitalization and the shift towards sustainability. we will get another market moving event, potentially the turkish central bank. it comes in the wake of the country's slumming -- slumping currency. the imf form is happening at 2:00 p.m. u.k. time the theme is measuring the division of climate change. and the cop 26 meeting is going to be pivotal. i want to turn back to turkey. the president has made it clear that he wants lower interest rates. economist except -- expect the central bank to deliver. but that is likely to come at the expense of the currency and price stability. the eighth day in a row. down by nearly 11%. kristine aquino can put the context around that. this is demolition on this
currency. is there any risk today? >> i think that is a good question, but the broad expectation is they will deliver some kind of easing. most consensus points to 100 basis points easing. a couple of people were expecting 50 basis points. even they admit given the recent history of turkish central banks, they are prepared to say there is room for an even bigger cut they are expecting. manus: the currency is so politicized. we've had a rate cuts through the year. a lot of changes at the central bank. to what extent do you think the markets has 100 basis points is already in this fight? a shortly longer-term chart, perhaps part of the weakest, do you think 100 basis points is in the price? >> to some extent, it is.
we have seen such run-up, such a slump in the lira over the last month or so. last week, we were talking about the key psychological 10 level. it has already breached that. the next level we are watching is 11. look at things like options pricing, the probability of the lira hitting those levels before the end of the year is increasing. so there is expectation getting baked in. a lot will do with the central bank and what it does with its rates. but most importantly, what they hint at in the future. not a lot of expectations for easing. it is -- if the central bank hit send that, we will see more action from the lira. manus: in terms of the inflation narrative, you look at the bank of valley -- america, australia,
and new zealand. diametrically a different direction. they do not stack up against the rate cutting cycle. >> absolutely. that is what investors are worried about. the idea. 300 basis points of rate cuts since september. a very unorthodox approach to tackling inflation, which is over 90% at the moment, in terms of the annual rate. very much contradictory to what we see from the rest of the world, in terms of their approach. we have seen definite seachange in monetary policy globally towards tightening. that is very much a response to the inflationary pressure we see. but really on the global scale. so this sort of response definitely worrying investors. and i think the price action in the lira very much contrast from that. manus: thank you very much for
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>> good morning. welcome to " bloomberg markets: europe." our markets live managing editor joins us from the new economy forum in singapore to take us through the market action. the cash trade is less than an hour away. here are the top headlines. oil takes a fresh blow. investors weighing up a potential u.s. led reserves release. china says a stock fire is in the works.
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