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tv   Bloomberg Surveillance  Bloomberg  November 18, 2021 6:00am-7:00am EST

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process. >> the training wheels are off. >> one of the features of an economy is gets too hot as it blows itself out. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: imminent is before thanksgiving, from new york city, good morning, this is bloomberg surveillance -- "bloomberg surveillance" live on tv and radio. i am jonathan ferro. your equity market up on the s&p. we might be able to have our. tom: inflation is heating up and that is more interesting than trying to figure out what imminent means. the only thing i know about thanksgiving and as i turned to my wife and i said no restaurant is what we are doing. it is imminent that i will be in a restaurant early in the afternoon of thanksgiving. jonathan: let us talk about what is cooking.
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jp morgan with the fed call. looking across the other side of the olympic -- on the atlantic, abandoning bets on the ecb and 2022. the market story is dropping moments ago. tom: i want to emphasize that we have a lot to talk about. the inflation debate is heating up. paul pushing against the worry, and there are a lot of people lining up and saying that this policy is constructed wrong. i missed of this a couple of days ago. the essay was a tour de force. it was absolutely superb. thank you for bringing it to my attention. folks, you need to understand that intellectuals are out front thinking about your higher inflation. jonathan: setting us up for central-bank divergence. lisa: the key issue for me is that whenever we reach the new normal, the new normal will be sooner than the european region and this is the euro.
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this falls below 18 months, 19 months. this has been a significant move at a time where it has been just stacia's -- stasis. jonathan: we are down .6% on crude and we talked about the report in the "south china morning post" that china and the united states might get rid of oil reserves and china is working on just that. lisa: the idea that they are preparing a release, raising a question about when do we hear from the u.s. administration that they are doing the same? jonathan: watch this space, the crude is lower down one third person -- .3%. the yields are unchanged. that is in and around 160 -- 1.60. 77 handle on wti. tom: we have seen it across the commodity index and we watch them pull back and open to debate, i would suggest those
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looking for higher prices are looking at global demand, first take you literally -- reticular early pacific rim demand. jonathan: just a slightly stronger euro this thursday morning. lisa: the policy diversion is underpinning the story even if today is seeing a rebound. what i am watching is when have we reach the new normal, how do we know? i am looking at this because we will get into initial claims at eight: 30 am, and the expert -- the expectation is for a new post-pandemic low. we are getting to where we were before the pandemic which bleeds into the unemployment rate. it is getting down to where we were pre-pandemic at 3.5%. when have we reached of the new normal and when can the fed have some conviction about what we are seeing as a longer-lasting trend. 9:30 a.m. we hear the controller of control -- of currency testifying before the senate making committee. a cornell law professor and many
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people have accused her of having radical ideas about the industry. the question is could she have full democratic support to get through. she needs one person to defect and she will not be the head. today is another firehose event speak, what are we hearing from all of the speakers? we keep a roster going. yesterday was all about treasury market dysfunction, today when we hear anything about the pre-thanksgiving announcement, maybe. we are seeing that -- saying that imminent means before thanksgiving but you can add a maybe to that. jonathan: we can hardly wait. let us bring in steve, the economic coverage and equity coverage as well. let us start with this equity market, you have pulled back on exposure, why is that? steve: we obviously had a really powerful bull market response. unusual for a recession period. but what we put into our note,
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what we put into groups like leisure, hospitality and cruise lines it has returned 180%. these are not really powerful long-term industries. they have made a full circle. what we want to do is to move into industries, components of the equity market that have long-term dividend income, outperformance of the economy that are safer. our overall equity overweight is about six percentage points, and at 11% earlier this year. tom: can the public hide in equities if they presume a higher inflation. are you forced to equities because nominal up inflation up is the only game in town. steve: that is a little too easy, again if we have markets
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-- market price inflation as a long-term problem, and believe me yields with valuations across the markets are really not priced as if inflation will be this high, permanently. so, if that was the case we probably would be disrupting the recovery. we would have to assume a very different outlook on where the economy could go. it is kind of simple, but yes in some ways it is because companies are paid in dollars. central banks do not print soft whale or rias -- software or real estate. we have to invest where year -- real yields are negative. lisa: if you are reducing you are overweight in equities which many people say is the only game in town, where do you put the money? steve: i would just say that there are components of fixed income where we are not trying to increase our wealth.
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in a total portfolio contact we have shifted a little bit of money to medium duration investment rate securities right on the notion that as we get somewhat higher yields we can shift further out. this is solely for protection from the downside. this is not, again, to make wealth go up. but 6% overweight in equities is a very positive exposure. we would expect high single digit overturns in the equity markets over the course of the next year. i think that the chance that we actually get that, that we actually deliver that will be much higher in dividend growth for example in the health sector. in the stable sector that had to absorb this terrible inflation in the past year. those are underperforming and are more stable registries and they are not quite so hit by cyclical risk when we have it. lisa: embedded is the idea that bonds can still offer the hedge, to equity risk even at the low
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yields and at the risk is inflation. is that accurate that bonds can offer the hedge despite the backdrop that is quite bearish for bonds? steve: much less, but if you think about it, these very low risk securities, when you have drawdowns in equities, they might not go up rapidly and you may not price a big fed using cycle and a lot of depreciation for what these lower securities are already. -- dialing down. we do not tell people to have a portfolio, but having some of that in a portfolio can optimize the level of volatility that you want. even if they are hit by inflation, the level at which they go down his last. again, this is still a positive outlook they are looking for growth in the coming year. i expect .3% gdp growth. i have not had to cut that because we do not have wildly
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ambitious forecast. i think inflation will be down to 3% next year. on the perspective of last year that might sound high. from this year that sounds good. jonathan: sounds good compared to the six handle. i want to talk about dollar-lire, .9%. a choppy extension. 100 basis point count from the central bank in turkey. and then this line from the turkish central bank. to assess and ending rate cuts in december. it is another 100 basis point move. tom: this is important and we are privileged to have you here, do you look at turkey as idiosyncratic or can it lead to what we enjoyed in the 90's? steve: we think it is idiosyncratic, emerging market central banks are generally following orthodox monetary policy. you can see brazil with your rate hikes, and fighting inflation.
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this sort of environment, i think in terms of global macro policy is probably going to leave us with markets that still view a few outliers as probably not something that will create great problems across markets. the fact that we are early in a fed tightening cycle is still that kind of a risk that we have to assess, that there will be wider problems as there was in the 2013 to 2016 period. this time around the u.s. dollars at a harder level. the oil price which collapsed 6% in 2014 and 2015, that is a picture of something less vulnerable. jonathan: i like how we are calling it a turning cycle. it is good to catch up. the dollar-lire. a weaker turkish lira. lisa: erdogan is fighting
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interest rates. he thinks that finding interest is bad and that will bring down inflation and it is not. that is what we are seeing. jonathan: the next inflation print is december 3, even around 20% at the moment and it could go higher. jonathan: tom: i am -- tom: i am going to disagree, the next inflation print for the president of the united states is next weekend. this is real and intangible. i am loving this intellectual debate, not revisiting the 70's, but revisiting what we are going to see. is the market moving towards -- jonathan: mike is not. timbre of next year and waiting until december 2023 for the next would -- rate hike. the s&p advancing 13 points. i am jonathan ferro. for our audience new --
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worldwide, this is bloomberg. ritika: with the first word news, china releasing oil from its strategic oil reserves coming after the presidents discussed the merits of releasing oil. both the u.s. and china have concerns over oil and inflation. economist at jp morgan set the fed to raise interest rates and a new outlook. the bank says that by the middle of next year the goal of full employment will be satisfied. jp morgan is the latest bank to abandon an earlier forecast that the fed would stay on hold through next year. bill gates says that covid deaths and infection rates might get below seasonal flu levels by the middle of next year but the founders says that that is assuming new -- no new dangerous variance emerge. he said that at singapore. union workers at deere has put
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an end to a strike. united autoworkers members ratified a six-year contract to increase pay. it was the first strike at deere since 1986. amazon is escalating its dispute with visa. it is moving its credit card to mastercard and amazon decided to ban visa cards in the u.k. next year because of rising fees. the company is ramping up a pressure in order to get better terms from the card. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> we need much more certainty
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about how the u.s. and china will compete, where they are going to cooperate, and how they are going to manage. otherwise, the world is headed for a very dangerous place. jonathan: the former u.s. treasury secretary at the new economy forum in singapore. from new york city, tom keene and lisa abramowicz and tom ferro. futures positive 50 and we advance around .3%. yields are unchanged. the main event in the fs market is darl -- dollar-lire. 10.9765 is the high. that is off of the back of a 100 basis point cut, and one of the most hawkish things that i have heard for a wild. they will study ending the rate cuts in december. tom: they have to get to december and i think the dynamic folks were confused by the
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chart, i was going to call it -- it a modest strengthening and a disappointment of this announcement. you wonder what they want, they want mr. erdogan to have an understanding of econ 101, that is really what is missing. jonathan: it is counterintuitive, for those of us wondering if i was being sarcastic, i was. it is the most hawkish thing that i have heard in quite a while. lisa: the idea that we are talking about a bank that dismisses the fundamental economic principles that tightening rates and policy and raising rates will lead to lower inflation and they outright reject that. tom: we have to watch it, that is a moving target. before we get to jack i want to take a personal note that henry paulson visits michael bloomberg in the new economy forum he does and this is a gentleman who has single-handedly tried to save the wildlife and birds of all of southeast asia. john, hank paulson
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single-handedly saved the six foot tall philippine eagle. he spent millions on this. he is absolutely unique in philanthropy and it is just a guidepost of doing year after year after year. it is amazing to see him in singapore. we have spoken many times on wildlife and the force of southeast asia. with that to jack fitzpatrick in washington, what is the inflation debate in washington? we are having a fancy debate about math in theory, nobody cares in washington. what is the inflation debate right now? jack: the inflation debate in congress is repetitive because they have gone in circles about what effect of the future bills would be, the reconciliation bill that the democrats are passing -- or trying to pass and they are waiting to see the score of how much of the spending would be frontloaded. more on the campaign trail going
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to 2022, you know, it is looking to thanksgiving, and it is considered definitely a political weakness heading towards the midterms. the cost of a thanksgiving dinner, the cost of gas prices that the president has talked about, but really there is not a debate that has gotten into the nuances of it so much on capitol hill as it is recognized as a weakness and a risk for democrats. tom: why isn't it a risk for republicans? that is -- the republicans are not driving ev, why is it a democratic issue? it is everybody's issue. jack: that is true, but for one and democratic and offended from this when president trump was in office, if something bad happens a lot of it will be on the president's shoulders. two, there might be a bias
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towards attributing major things toward something that the president can have control of. we might overstate at times the actual inflationary effects of this reconciliation bill compared to supply chain issues and the global economy, but this is something that they are working on in washington and if it has an inflationary effect, the spending and tax bill, that is what a lot of lawmakers will talk about. it is a political issue more than the real nuances of how it works. lisa: nuances do not work in the u.s. political sphere, that is one thing we have learned over and over again. that is why this administration has harped on the oil price and releasing some of the reserves that the u.s. has. are we expecting an imminent announcement before thanksgiving with respect to the release of some of the spr after china has moved to do the same. jack: the timing on a u.s. move
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on that is a little tough to pin down. i am not sure we can say imminent right now. the latest developments on that is that there was a little bit of a pushback from house majority leader steny hoyer saying that he does not quite like the idea of a strategic petroleum reserve release, so there is not entire unanimity among democrats on the idea for this but it is something that came up in the conversation between president biden and xi, and it is something that the president has talked about. i am not sure we can say imminent just yet but it is certainly on the radar. lisa: meanwhile, aren't congress members on vacation again, isn't there a recess again? jack: there is supposed to be. there is so much piling up on capitol hill that it is not clear if everyone will leave. the senate is moving to consideration of the defense authorization bill that they
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really need to have enacted the end of the year, so there might be work on that, and then also the question of waiting on the score for the reconciliation bill which might take until late friday. it is not impossible that they could say stat -- stay saturday and vote in the house or stay through next week. believe it or not they are entirely concerned with their travel schedules and potential vacations. there might be significant work beyond that, it depends on the schedule. jonathan: jack fitzpatrick down in d.c. on the latest. we are still struggling to get away from the pandemic and i think that europe, some european countries are pushing people to work from home and think about what is next in the united states as we push the boosters on more of the population. tom: 19 or 20 months on, commerzbank noticing some of the baltic states doing a little bit better. it is really every nation for itself, particularly on the continent? jonathan: at the moment but you
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can start to see a theme emerging, more countries getting behind more restrictions and lockdowns like we saw in the spring of 2020. certainly we are starting to see more getting into winter. lisa: it is being led by the public and private sector, and basically feeling that they have carte blanche to get harsher based on the legal precedent and government policies. this is compelling. you asked a question of are they working, are some of these policies and mandates working, and a lot of people say more people are getting vaccinated what i do wonder long-term. jonathan: the vaccine is working in the way that they hope for. we will talk about that a little bit later. i will get the booster, they are looking to push it out to more people, why not? lisa: honestly, i do not want to be sick. jonathan: that was a great discussion. tom: i took a week off after my booster. jonathan: i will have my week off next week. unless of course we get a new
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chairman of the federal reserve in the case i will, in just for you. just to talk about it. it is so important. tom: i am going to say wait two days into ferro's vacation. ♪
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jonathan: i love the guidance you get from the pboc in china. one or the other. it may be the guidance you get from the central bank of turkey right now. 100 point and talking about studying the end of rate cuts next month. maybe even deliver another rate cut. that is the guidance for you and the central bank of turkey. tom: politics comes into it, in turkey, there is no question. mr. erdogan has had that. jonathan: good morning to you all. positive 16 on the nasdaq 100. of about one half of 1%. switch on the border get to the bond market, focus on the front
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end. that's where the focus has been for a number of weeks and months. in and around 50 basis points. just below 50. j.p. morgan and mike for oli out with the call looking for a movie in september of next year from the federal reserve. that is the bond market. wti negative. we pull back to 78.17. the u.s. asks china to have a corresponding groupthink around say some reserves, oil reserves. it sounds like china is planning to do just that. will the u.s. follow? tom: i think that is open to debate. i would say larger right now than the commodities, we have shifted to an overall inflation. no question about that. jonathan: worldwide.
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not just the u.s. tom: we have some wonderful guests today on economics. we go to someone incredibly skilled on market economics, stephen stanley. he's really good at the granularity. i want you to extrapolate the reality of john deere. 10% wage list and the next year, 5% wage left. the year after that, a 5% wage lift. that smells like inflation to me. can the union inflation fall over to nonunion america? stephen: absolutely. the labor market is incredibly tight right now. workers realize that they have the leverage. not only seeing it with some of this strike action but also people sitting out. waiting until they get an offer that they like. workers right now have the
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leverage. tom: i look at target and amazon together coming up on 2 million employees. they are almost union like employers. general motors of 1935 or 1955 as well. are we more organized than we think we are in our labor markets? stephen: that's an interesting question. in some aspects it is probably true. these big companies or big employers i should say have definitely responded with big moves in terms of wages waging the minimum wages they pay. a manner that is somewhat akin to a collective bargaining type situation. whether it is working conditions or other collective bargaining type issues, maybe not so much. maybe it is a bit of a hybrid. jonathan: does the fed have time
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to wait for this labor market to heal? stephen: the fed is way behind the curve. the fact that we are still buying assets is a problem. they will end up moving faster than they think. at some point they will have to advance the speed of tapering. it will take a while for the fed to catch up. they wanted to be behind the curve to some degree. this is what the framework stipulates. the world looks very different than the way we thought it looked in 2018, 2019. jonathan: let's talk about how much it has changed. the qe program set to run down by the middle of next year. run me down when you think that will end and when the next rate hike will come after that? stephen: by early next year,
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assuming the inflation numbers continue to be very firm, they will have to accelerate the pace of tapering. if they maintain the current pace they would be done by june. i think they will probably finish in march or april. with a couple more before the end of the year. lisa: what is the trigger for them to move to a more hawkish framework? stephen: the inflation numbers will be propelling them forward. on top of that we are seeing good progress in the labor market. the shoe that is left to drop in terms of the labor market is labor force participation. there was the end of the unemployment benefits. the beginning of school the calming down a bit of the pandemic. a number of events people are waiting for to fall that they thought might change the
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equation for labor force participation. the next few months will be really key. we will get some big influx of people back in the job market. they will find work very quickly given the number of job openings and how just -- desperate staff are. we will find people are hanging back for longer than expected. in which case the labor market remains tight. in either case the fed will have to conclude that the work is mostly done on the labor market. we will be at something approximating full employment by next spring. lisa: what is the terminal policy rate that is appropriate for the new economy in the post pandemic recovery? we heard 3-4% if this is something more persistent and longer lasting. you agree the fed will hike more aggressively but have a much
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higher target -- to hit to normalize the economy? stephen: that is something i'm actually writing about right now . if you look at the adjustment in the market over the last several months, there has been a big adjustment in terms of the beginning of the rate cycle. if you look further out at various money market futures, they defend it in the cycle below 2%. that is potentially the next shoe to drop. if we see rate hikes next year and inflation is still running well above its target. people will start to think a little bit more seriously about scenarios they have laid out. if the fed says neutral is 2.5% and inflation is already running well above target, it doesn't come all the way back the way
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built -- the way a lot of officials think, that is the way people will wonder if we have to move into restricted territory. tom: the people pushing against your view say government will slowdown and it will be tangible as well. do you buy it? stephen: if you define fiscal policy, that would be true. i'm not sure that is the way to look at it. all that we have seen over the last 18 or so months for the most part is sitting on household balance sheets. it was all saved. household balance sheets from the people -- pre-pandemic levels.
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most of those rebate checks and unemployment benefits and all the rest are still waiting to be spent. not all be spent at once. there will be continued to provide a tailwind to growth in 2022. jonathan: this was very interesting. looking ahead to next year and potentially a rate hike in june. after the move in june, looking for another few moves after that in 2022. tom: with all this uncertainty, how do you fold over to the equity market. does this bode well for corporations to adapt and adjust and keep doing what they are doing? whatever these two outcomes play out. does the stock market care about the fancy, economic debate?
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maybe they win regardless of what outcome happens. jonathan: we talked about this many times. one of the bubbles we have seen was in 2007. it is one thing we just heard, the bill dudley scenario. i'm not sure how many equity calls would be comfortable with that. lisa: if they start raising rates and inflation does not go down, if it stays high, what happens then? do you get a repricing on the long end? how much does that disrupt an entire corporate debt market? it is 10. -- hinged on valuation of ultra low yields. this is a very disruptive market kind of scenario. jonathan: just thinking through that chain. lisa: if inflation doesn't go down and they raise rates made here, possibly raising them many
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times again and there is no move in inflation, what then? the economy slows down and they have to back away. i don't know. this is a scenario more people are thinking about. just looking around the corner -- jonathan: just looking around the corner. all the quarters lisa looks around are very dark. it is very, very dark. equities up 15, up one third of 1%. from new york on tv and radio this thursday morning, good morning. this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: former treasury secretary hank or some warned the world is heading to a dangerous place of tensions between china and the u.s. get
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worse. saying we need more certainty around how the countries will compete and cooperate. 25 states are seeing a rise in hospitalizations from coronavirus. that has health officials warning against large gatherings . nationwide the seven day average of new daily cases has increased 11%. rupert murdoch is telling former president trump the past behind. he says it is important to play an active role in the national debate but he says that won't happen if the former president is focused on the past. on capitol hill, a tweet showed him striking a democrat with a sword and attacking president biden.
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goldman sachs released nine private wealth advisors. goldman is doing this as part of a new strategy to make the fund less reliant on trading revenue. 24 hours a day on bloomberg and bloombergquint take -- bloomberg quicktake. this is bloomberg. ♪
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♪ >> seeing some very good news in
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the supply constraints as we get into the middle of next year. we will be limited by the logistics and the demand. the idea that economic activity will resume in full once we get to blue levels is very likely. jonathan: bill gates, the cochairmen of the bill and melinda gates foundation. your equity market positive 16 on the s&p. up one third of 1%. jobless claims coming out a little bit later. looking for something around 260,000. in the bond market yields are higher by 169.75. 78.1 six on crude down another quarter of 1%. oil reserve over in china. tom: it is the talk of the moment. that ebbs away this week.
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i would note 16.78 go to mid range of equities move higher. right now it is a great honor, the international epidemiologist joins us from johns hopkins university. each nation has a solution. there is one case at disneyland in hong kong they shut the whole place down. we don't do that in america. i'm fascinated if you believe capitalism and certainly the american model can cure this pandemic, lessen the pain. should we have private enterprise step in and help limit this pandemic? >> private enterprise has played a huge role. all of the vaccines developed in the u.s. were done as private partnerships. what we are seeing right now is
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cases creep up with the colder weather and heading towards thanksgiving is the total immunization coverage in the u.s. is still under 60% of everyone in the country. that is why we are seeing over 100,000 new cases a day. jonathan: what does -- tom: what does private enterprise need to do more if that is the only identifiable solution in america? >> we have had two recent advances that will make a big difference. those are pfizer and merck have put forward new antiviral drugs. these are the first covid specific pills. they don't need to be refrigerated. they could significantly reduce hospitalization and death. pfizer's looks really good.
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perhaps a 90% reduction if you take it within 3-5 days of becoming symptomatic. that is a big advance. that is really going to help the people who are just dug in and it resistant to get immunized. this is not a vaccine. this is an antiviral drug. it also has some preventative benefits. if you have household exposure you might be able to go on what we call prevention in the household. that could reduce everybody's risk of getting sick. i think these are two important new tools. we also have good data from the monoclonal anti-body study that was a household study. that suggests monoclonal antibodies could play a role in preventing people who are not
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immunized from getting very sick. lisa: are these tools enough to prevent a situation where people are working from home again and you are seeing selective lockdowns to prevent the spread? >> great question. the timing is such that pfizer has not submitted for emergency use authorization. it is going to take time to get these drugs approved and get them out into use and see how in the real-world setting they actually work. we don't really have that time because cases are rising, deaths are rising. 1600 a day right now in the u.s.. thanksgiving is coming in the cold weather is coming. if you look at a map of where the cases are happening now, it is the colder states. we are talking about next week. none of these new products will be available.
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lisa: are you sick of talking about this one? should we be focused on a far greater almond that are frankly just as serious amid the coronavirus? >> we are all tired of having another pandemic year. bill gates talking about how mid 2022 with the retribution and manufacturer. demand would remain an issue. we are seeing a lot of hesitancy outside of the u.s.. even with a small number of vaccines that they have. 2021 will still be a pandemic year for covid. so will 2022. this will take some time.
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that is a pandemic that has been going on 40 years. unfortunately many of us are used to the long haul. tom: 90% plus of adults are vaccinated and irish government is installing full instructions asking people to work from home. i want to understand what is going on in europe. vaccine numbers so high and they are grappling with a surgeon cases, why? >> a couple of factors in play. one is what we already know, colder weather moving indoors, this is an indoor virus. that is predicted. the second is all covid vaccines are not alike. there are vaccines that have been used that actually have lower efficacy. what is happening in europe, ireland is the delta variant.
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there is less coverage and protection with astrazeneca. which many european countries arrive on -- relied on early on. we have better protection against delta with the mrna viruses. then you have the early immunizations. it has lower efficacy against delta. jonathan: from new york city alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i am jonathan ferro. before we get there, the equity market up 15. advancing one third of 1%. bond market tied by about a basis point. let's call it 160 on the 10-year. tom: i know the change in home depot's energy and what we saw from target. jonathan: maybe a little bit of
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good news for the administration on crude. lisa: that's what they were hoping for. will they actually get the relief now? jonathan: i'm not sure if we could call it crisis over just yet. good morning to you all, this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> central park should be independent central banks should be independent -- central banks should be independent. >> the training wheels are off, so to speak. >> the market is underestimating the fiscal drag we will feel next year. >> an economy that gets too hot does blow itself out. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: from new york city, for our audience worldwide, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance ," live on tv and radio. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. your equity market advancing 0.3%. for macy's, it is a beat and a raise. tom: it is a technology raise as well. i go back to 2019, and this is not target, not home depot, but they are up 8% plus going back to sales in 2019. a fairly clear press


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