tv Bloomberg Surveillance Bloomberg November 18, 2021 8:00am-9:00am EST
>> i think there are a lot of uncertainties across different axes of the market. >> the market has been really strong with high inflation. >> it is difficult to see how multiples expand further. >> i think evaluations may be worth it in some cases. >> i think we will come close to double digits. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning, everyone. on radio, on television, it is an inflationary simulcast. thrilled you are with us. claims data in this hour, that
is important. let's go right to the bait -- to the debate. catherine gry felt hits the ball out of the park. help us a few years ago. bloomberg businessweek, inflation is dead. jonathan: that might have been the contrarian indicator. now the headline, inflation, for this month's cover. there is a bit of a caveat because this month has said inflation in bold letters, and at the bottom in very small print, maybe the muster -- the monster isn't what we feel it is. tom: what is so interesting is our debate with claims at 8:30. how do you a dow -- how do you adapt for it. what do we do? jonathan: how did this added up to it? july for goldman, september for the likes of j.p. morgan.
then with q1 2023 from morgan stanley. then december 23 from td. there's a massive spread on wall street on when they think the fed will move. tom: there's two debates on inflation, bowtie debate and a real debate out there about what does it cost at thanksgiving dinner versus 12 months ago. lisa: the pace of the inflation and the decline in that rate, he was basically saying it might be enough if early next year, the fed sees what it wants. second quarter, a start of a decline, do they have time to do that? tom: equities will lift further as we go into the data check. macy's is showing people adapt. jonathan: we seen that from several of the big retailers in america. your equity markets up broadly.
crude heading lower, down 0.2%. a $78 handle on wti, $78.20. tom: we will see it with the data here, and esoteric stuff going on with turkish lira as well. let's get right into the debate coming up with michael mckee on claims and 27 minutes. matthew brill joins us, invesco head of credit. we talk full faith in government credit all the time. what is the distinction now in the corporate credit market? matt: good morning, tom. your team is always spot on with the base reference. that was the name i was going to bring up showing that it is adapting. it may see margins actually expanded over the last quarter. what we are seeing out of corporations is they are learning to live with inflation and pass it on to consumers. we feel very good, but
corporations, their fundamentals cannot be better and inflation is really not disrupting that. jonathan: can you play the upgrade story, or is that played out >> -- played out? matt: no, next year is going to be when the upgrades start to hit. we are calling this the overdue upgrade, see you could see about $50 billion to investment grade thus far in 2021. roughly half of those have come in the last month, so continental resources, and energy name, we saw dell, those have been upgraded recently. those are going to be anywhere from $100 billion to $2 billion next year out of investment high-grade. j.p. morgan has a call for $270 billion over the next 18 months, so if they are right, you will see a lot of opportunities within the corporate debt market that might be swimming against the tide of a higher yield in
the treasury market. jonathan: i see fixed income being totally written off next year as a buffer against risk in the treasury market. what are you saying to clients when those concerns come up? matt: right now we see a lot of investors that are concerned, the don't want to put any more money in the equity market. that is the path we are on for everybody, which results in what can i buy that i can sleep at night that i will get some yield? it might be negative real yields to get real total returns, but it is still better than cash. i hate to be, we lose less so we are better than cash, but that is where it is right now. there's a lot of concerns about evaluations, take the money off the top and put it into fixed income, and locking it in good corporate credit is letting you sleep at night. so the fundamentals are very
strong here. it is just that valuations are tough. jonathan: credit is better than cash, yet i am wondering whether that is the case at a time when people are worried about duration risk. how much are you putting yourself at risk and exposing yourself to fluctuations in interest rates without regard to what happens in credit? matt: some of the instruments we will be using, there's a shorter high-yield that is certainly less volatile from an industry standpoint. we also looking at some investment grade floating. it isn't just all buying 30 year corporate bonds. we were all trying to customize the portfolio around taking credit risk and eliminating
interest-rate risk to a certain extent. you can't eliminate it completely, but we are trying to reduce that. lisa: is this a pitch for credit right now, it is better than cash and at least you can sleep at night? matt: i think so. we have had a really good run of corporate credit over the last five years, 6%, 7% in some instances, and those kind of terms are not repeatable. we think it is a good hideout. you can still get income, diversification away from equities, and wait for further opportunities to invest more in equities. we do think you can still like money in fixed income. you just have to find the right spot. there's tremendous opportunities in chinese property companies, but that is a little more -- that is more volatility. tom: i'm a complete hack at this, and i always go to the apple swiss franc piece out 10 years yielding 0.75% payable in
frank's. it -- in francs. -- in francs. when you know to step into the five-year apple piece? matt: i know people that know people that have swiss bank account, and you are getting like 1% for having cash in a bank over there, so it is all relative. from our standpoint, a lot of negative yield over there. i don't know if it is the time to enter. if you get close to 0% on something, you are starting to see a lot of people by -- we
just have to look at this world with about $14 trillion of negative yielding that and find the relative opportunities in that scheme. jonathan: unreal. matt, thank you. who would have thought 10 or 20 years ago that a german 10 year approaching 0% would be considered buying opportunity? we are back again this morning, yields lower by two basis points to about -27. but this is what i want to talk about. another currency pair is euro swiss. take a look at euro swiss right now. on the session intraday, 100 five. we are going to levels we have not seen since 2015. if you take it back a year, you can see this has been a one-way move since september, just a one-way move lower. so anytime it moves lower, we are seeing swissie strength. discussing what is happening on the continent, the higher cases, the reintroduction of some restrictions off the back of
increasing covid cases, and a strength in this currency pair off the back of it. tom: for those not attuned to this, i would suggest it as a piece of litmus paper within the system. it is more than just the pandemic or macro babble about europe. it is about i want to own swiss francs as a comfort. jonathan: it has been building over the last couple of months. lisa: i want to go to this idea, where you park your cash? our companies the new safety tray? ? i'm struggling with this safety trade? i know this is a specific, but i wonder how that have been rearranged. jonathan: what is the biggest question we are asking here. you want to find a place to sleep well at night, and where do you want to find to do that?
do you think maybe this is in america's future, what is developing on the content? no doubt i get a ton of hate mail for saying that, but you just look at the data and europe until the posse makers are responding to that data. a lot of those countries are still pretty subdued. they are introducing restrictions. there's a fear maybe that that becomes the bigger story in the months to come. lisa: i will say, really interesting about the potential efficacy of different vaccines. jonathan: no one wants to see that coming back anytime soon. up 11 on the s&p, yields unchanged at tens. crude is lower briefly. from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: the u.s. will pay pfizer
for 10 million courses of its covenant riders -- it's coronavirus pill, contingent on approval of the drug. either has that it will invest as much is $1 billion to manufacture and distribute the pill. china is releasing some oil from its strategic oil reserves just days after president biden and xi jinping discussed the merits of releasing oil during their virtual summit. in canada, the city of vancouver has been cut off from the rest of the country by land due to flooding and mudslides. major highways and railroads have been blocked in what is called the storm of the century. that has caused panic buying at grocery stores. shares of alibaba falling today. ever of any forecast for fiscal 2022 missed estimates. meanwhile, sales have done worse than expected for the second
straight quarter. alibaba's business has been hit by macroeconomic, regulatory, and competitive turmoil. macy's is showing that consumer demand remains strong on the people of the crucial holiday season. macy's has also boosted its profit forecast for the full year. shares nearly tripled this year. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. ♪
alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. some price action we need to talk about. futures advancing 0.2 5% on the s&p 500. euro-dollar weaker, $1.13 -- euro-dollar stronger, $1.1343. a 25 basis point move by the south african central bank, widely expected. that is what we get. a split decision. three voting to hike, two to hold. this is a currency pair that is high for the session. through 11, a clean break, a 4% move after another big rate cut from the central bank in turkey. tom: with credit strategists, we could talk for two hours, but we
will not do that today. stanley fisher's classic books that he wrote in 1998, how close are we to the 1990's? damian: this is an unprecedented era right now in terms of the rate hikes we are seeing across the whole of emerging markets. the losses we are seeing for the turkish lira, it is just uncanny. but we've got to focus on is the fact that net fx was herbs, what makes this different -- net x x -- net fx reserves, what makes this different is that net fx reserves are negative. that is why we are seeing this binary move to the upside on dollar lira today. tom: dollar-lira out to 11. the idea of 80 and craddick, you and i know -- of idiosyncratic, you and i know a la -- a la
ecuador, it does not stay idiosyncratic. damian: all of the distress in latam, what is going on in argentina. it is the first time since the 1940's where they have not had control of the senate. any may think this is a good thing. you're seeing a bid up of argentine bond prices. we all know argentine is a serial defaulter. but the reality is we might see more populism in the near-term, which would be bad for the economy as he tries to protect his base and stop from becoming a lame-duck president through 2023. but for the immediate term, this is good news for argentina. there is a smattering of good news, and i guess south africa, the fact that the hiked rates, they are getting the message. that is more good news in my eyes. lisa: why is the market not
getting the good news? you are seeing the selloff continue in the south african rand. you can see a real skittishness, but it is not satisfying to the degree that traders perhaps think is necessary. damian: it is everything you talk about everyday. it is inflation, inflation, inflation. it will be the dominant theme before growth fears become the dominant theme. so i think you are absently right. they are looking to see which economies can stomach higher interest rates, that they can still grow within themselves. there are going to be certain emerging markets that cannot. we saw overnight indonesia, the philippines leaving rates on hold. inflation pressures are manageable there, and economies need to be stimulated to continue the growth trajectory. jonathan: i wonder how you think these spillover from develop arc it's -- from emerging markets to
developed markets. damian: the fed may actually be encouraging another taper tantrum just by being so transparent in their moves. i think this is the risk that emerging-market practitioners are now pointing to. the fact that the fed has to play catch up and move a little more aggressively in terms of its taper, that could be really bad. right now they are scaling back the pace of the taper. when we see that tightening, all bets are off. jonathan: you are specialized. you wait for the tourists to run away, and then when it starts to get comfortable, you lean back in. damian: looking china. right now, the high-yield market is sort of recovering. we talk about the relaxation of a pretty lending in china and how all of these defaults, all of these missed coupon payments we have been talking about for months, you are starting to see investors come back in. why? because china is allowing property developers to access
the asset backed securities market. it has been on threes for three months -- unfreeze -- on freeze for three months. all of this is good news, and we are seeing that reflected in one small area in the emerging-market landscape, but structurally, i am a dollar bull. i have been for the better part of the last decade, and i don't think that is changing anytime soon. lisa: that's where i want to go, the idea that perhaps you saw capitulation in the chinese developer space. is there anywhere else in the world, in the developing market complex, that you are seeing capitulation the gets your interest? damian: i wouldn't call what we are seeing in argentina capitulation, but our contrarian call this year was that we would see argentine bonds appreciate and generate a little more of a return than they have. we might be on the verge of that. we thought valuations were really mispriced, and it comes
down to the imf, $53 billion of debt, another $44 billion coming due, so we've got to see those negotiations progress in the right way, and i think we will get closer to that in the midterm results. jonathan:jonathan: who do you think has the hardest job in central banking? damian: it has got to be the u.s. fed. the fed has to make a decision between what is in the best interests of u.s. citizens at home, the domestic economy, and that of the rest of the world. we were just talking about this. the fed is the world's reserve bank. it tightens too quickly. the whole world will grind to a halt and that is bad for the u.s. economy as well. but at the same time, is that for u.s. citizens at home? i don't know for sure. that is really the dichotomy they have to battle each and every day. jonathan: i thought you're going to say turkey. good to catch up, as always. damian sassower on emerging markets. looking around the world and looking to the fed, may be the
hardest job in central bank and, except we don't know who is going to have that next year. tom: i do want to say, at least the medical people tell us the pandemic overlay of economics -- overlay on economics. jonathan: it was a tight decision. not much encouragement from this fx market right now. lisa: i do wonder what traders are looking for. do they want the central bankers of south africa, certainly of turkey, to tighten to cigna signal -- to send a signal? or are they going back to the dollar because it seems like the fed will hold for longer? jonathan: the dollar lira is on a different planet, through 11 at this point. we have seen it again and again. how many days is this now on the turkish lira? tom: i don't know. it reminds me of damian's
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jonathan: live from new york city on tv and radio, waiting for economic data in america. equity futures up .2%. this equity market a low but firmer. yields at 1.5958. let's get you economic data with michael mckee. michael: jobless claims coming in at 268,000. let's see what the revision was, it is a decrease of 1000 from the previous week's revised level which was to 67,000, they have taken it to 269,000. i'm not sure people player -- i'm not sure people care too much about jobless. it is not only the survey week
for payrolls but also incorporates the veterans day holiday. you have two things working at cross purposes. the other thing is the philadelphia fed index. abate rise. 39 from 23.8. it had fallen the last month. the forecast was only for a rise to 24. the philadelphia fed index much higher. the employment index is at 27.2 versus 30.7. we may be still seeing employment problems despite the fact jobless claims are falling, they are not finding enough people to go to work in the philadelphia area. still waiting for the other data on the philly fed, especially the supplier delivery times. that would cause angst on wall street last times. you can check the terminal and we will get that for you.
tom: what you see? jonathan: i am so distracted by what is happening with dollar-lira. tom: what we do here is we try to get lucky. you get lucky different ways when you book quality people, which our team has been on fire, they said let's get megan greene . what you do not know is out of princeton and oxford she was definitive on europe and turkey a good number of years ago. we are thrilled megan greene could join us at this moment as turkey unravels. i went back into the great internet and there it was, e.u., turkey, something is rotten. you are an authority. how rotten is erdogan and turkey right now? megan: the markets are speaking for themselves. it is not just erdogan, it is
the independence of the central bank. eurodollar bonds in turkey. i think turkey is at the front of the line for emerging-market entries that have borrowed to pay for this pandemic response and may not be able to service that debt as interest rates start rising and accommodation is strong globally. turkey is a canary in the coal mine. brazil is another one. i think turkey has been a basket case for a long time and it is playing out in the markets now. tom: you presume that mr. erdogan, under crisis of finance , will he turn to america or europe? megan: that is the big question. probably the u.s. is more important. turkey makes no qualms about not having any interest in joining the eu now. there is a spat between turkey and the eu and the migrant crisis.
the u.s. is what matters in terms abate financial flows and so i think erdogan will probably turn towards towards the u.s.. i think they will have to turn more towards the imf as well. lisa: turkey is a very specific story with a novel approach to economic theory with president erdogan. there -- the south african rand is also losing favor as it raises rates but not as much as people were hoping. why is it that there is this feeling any emerging-market they have to tighten rates but they do not want to tighten rates quite as much as a lot of the traders are expecting them and want them to. megan: a lot of emerging-market already had a debt problem before the pandemic started, than they had to issue a lot of debt to get through the pandemic response. they do not want to hike rates that much because they know that will raise their borrowing costs. it is fine as long as liquidity
is ample and borrowing costs are low. they learned from the last crisis. a lot of that debt has been issued local currency and central banks are reticent to hike rates. in general, while the fiscal accommodation was relaxed in 2020, most emerging markets are going ahead and engaging in a degree of austerity for 2021, 2023. if you have the fiscal engine pulling back in the monetary engine, it will make it harder for these countries to service their debt. that has implications that makes it harder for them to pay for imports. i think we will run into a lot of trouble in terms of the sovereign debt crisis in emerging markets, maybe not this year but from next year onward. the imf has beefed up their firepower, but they do not necessarily have good programs for countries that fall in the middle and need medium-term help. lisa: this goes to damian
sassower's point that the fed is the banker to the world and they are looking connelly domestically, -- they are looking not only domestically, but if they hike rates twice, what would that do? with that trigger the crisis you are talking about in the developing world? megan: we have seen that if the fed hikes rates everywhere will co-op. that is certainly the case for emerging markets. while em sovereigns have been better about issuing a local currency, the private sector has not necessarily. it depends on which country, but a lot of that debt is issued in u.s. dollars. as borrowing costs go up for the u.s. they rise everywhere else in the currency implications make it harder for em countries to service that debt. tom: what do you think we are seeing in the season of outlooks is almost a lack of consensus.
the bottom line is everybody is all over the map right now. is that unusual? megan: it is not unusual in a pandemic. none of us know where the economy is going unless we work out what happens with the virus, that is one massive piece of uncertainty. we have never been through this before. while other economists and i can come happens they what we think will happen with something simple like an nation, we do not know. there is tons of uncertainty around the labor market, what does the labor force participation rate look like, that is a big -- that feeds into what the fed should do. there is huge uncertainty around all of this but these are the basic building blocks for any kind of macro forecast. it is unsurprising economists are all over the map. lisa: test carpenter from morgan stanley said if you see inflation peaked in the first
quarter and start to decelerate, that will be enough for the fed to remain on hold for the duration of 2022 and wait for the first quarter of 2023 to hike rates. you agree it is not the absolute level of inflation, but the direction of travel? megan: i think that is probably right. i also think the fed has promoted their mandate on full and inclusive employment, and that is a real priority for them in a way it has not always been. we see inflation start to decelerate year, than i think that that will feel less pressure to withdraw accommodations. that being said i do not think we will see in nation accelerate at the beginning of next year. i am in teams transitory on the inflation question. i think the disruptions we will see will persist at least another year. it requires not only abatement in demand but also requires us to go back to buying services
instead of goods and that will depend on the virus. that could take a while. it also requires us addressing supply chain disruptions. i think that could take longer. if we were to see weaker inflation, the fed would be under much less pressure to hike rates and we could end up waiting until 2023 to see rate hikes and i think that would be the right call, even if we do not see abatement in inflation here. jonathan: in line with morgan stanley. megan greene with the kroll and harvard kennedy school. that is the story, the spread of estimates. we have talked about jan hatzius , and morgan stanley q1 of 2023. priya misra out of the back end of 2023. tom: that is something for megan greene. did you see megan greene in washington on seth carpenter? megan: we missed an opportunity
to check in and see. tom: you want to talk about -- jonathan: a move on a currency pair, even if it is em. tom: i did a bunch of reading on this. i am fascinated by the four erdogans we have seen. i think there is a huge political unknown on how he will adapt to the broader political crisis of what he dreamed of in 2002 and the wonderful turkish boom through the 2000. that has been shattered, but with a vengeance this morning. i would respectfully suggest a seismic shift, where he has to reformulate whatever the erdogan future is. jonathan: right now the
perception of central-bank independence in turkey has shifted markedly over the last several years. we have seen it happen a few times. more recently these 100 basis point cuts in the face of inflation around 20% is concerning a lot of people. lisa: independence is not the word anyone would use. it is set erdogan is running monetary policy on his own. the question i have is at what point about support gets eroded as inflation starts to impact quality of life. jonathan: dollar europe -- dollar lira at 11. coming up on the open, we will have this conversation with tori of fernandez. things are ok -- with victoria fernandez. things are ok on the s&p 500, advancing 13 points higher. this is bloomberg surveillance.
ritika: european countries are making u-turns in their fight against the fourth wave of the pandemic, increasingly forcing countries to let employees work from home. in belgium the government said employees need to work from home after days a week. germany is going to agree on mandatory work from home as long as there are no operational issues. in the u.s. hospitals are seeing rise in the coronavirus come that has health officials warning against large indoor gatherings for the thanksgiving holiday. the average of new cases that increased 11% this month. jp morgan expects the federal reserve to raise interest rates in september. it says by the middle of next year the colorful women will be satisfied. jp morgan -- by the middle of
next year full employment will be satisfied. -- amongst the issues likely to be discussed come energy, borders, and auto manufacturing. kohl's posted better-than-expected third-quarter sales. the chain also boosted its outlook. focusing on athletic wear. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪
prosperous economy and rising market spread. i do not believe that. i think one of these days in nation will be established to be higher than it has been that will cause rates to go up, 3% to 4%. tom: the wonderful howard marks. we thank you for being with us. we welcome all of you particularly in the eastern mediterranean as turkey unravels. the turkish lira now 11.1 purdue -- now 11.12 an ever weaker. right now we are listening to barry ritholtz with bloomberg opinion and always a writer of thoughtful ideas. you have a column where you speak about five things that indicate what i am going to call seismic shifts that silently appear. i am fascinated seachange shifts
in inflation. inflation clearly the topic right now. they occur silently. how do you listen for the silence of their shifts? barry: i love being on the same side of any trade with howard marks. i'm a big fan of not only his company but his thought processes and how he contextualizes the world. when we look at how we exist in the here and now, the news flow is a fire hose. every day it is something different, which makes us think it is too much to be on top of, or does the same thing over and over again. inflation trends, supply chain, which makes it seems like it is intractable. what you need to do is step back and look at things from a geological perspective and avoid the minute by minute news flow.
look at what is driving all of these things in the economy. these do not start yesterday or last month or last year, they have been decades in the making. we can get into the specifics and talk about how some of these things are happy century in the making. tom: they are half a century in the making but right now what we are making is more inflation. there are 14 opinions. i do not need a 15th. i just want to know how to sort through the 14 opinions. barry: look at what is driven by the second by second low and ignore those unless you are on a trading desk you have a holding period measured in milliseconds. if you're a long-term investor thinking beyond this month, this quarter, and your holding period is years, a couple of things to think about. generally speaking, equities are a good inflation hedge up to a point. once things move towards
hyperinflation, very high inflation and all of your hedges, the bets are off. in united states over the past half-century, as long as inflation is elevated but manageable, it has been pretty good for equities. companies have shown they can pass input cost increases to consumers, especially if consumers are seeing waging pieces -- wage increases. all of the handwringing of how inflation will destroy the tumor -- destroy the consumer, look at retail sales. you have to be able to step back and look at the 30,000 foot view, not get caught up. lisa: let's take a 30,000 foot view. what is the geological sense of inflation? are we still in a world headed towards lower rates or has something shifted with the idea
of a bit of deglobalization, the idea of how to fortify supply chains to embed cost and the idea of a shift in power to labor that we have not seen for years? barry: let's take those three things one at a time. first we have been running just-in-time inventories with a very lean supply chain. that is catnip to retailers and logistical companies. it has proven itself to be fragile, like in the event there is a pandemic, hypothetically. that will take not a weaker and month, it will take years. you have to build more manufacturing companies in the u.s. you have to incentivize companies to hold inventory. there are a lot of moving parts. when you look at inflation and some of the things that are clearly transitory, the problems with reopening, the problems with semiconductors,
automobiles, that will work itself out in a couple of quarters. this time next year the supply chain should be seen to be better. when we look at things like housing, you have decade-long forces like people not wanting to build or see higher density, anything that might affect my real estate values, which is why there is a massive under supply of homes, especially single-family homes. that would take a long time to fix. the good news is we are building more housing starts today and we have since 1974. the bad news is it takes years to build up a supply of home and we are running out of land. we need regulatory relief there. tom: barry ritholtz with us on some of the changes we are seeing. we have to encompass the tumult of the week.
i can only imagine what friday will bring. lisa: the idea we are looking at changing inflation expectations, and this debate heating up as we get the year end outlooks as to whether we are entering not hyper in nation, but in inflation regime we have not seen for decades -- not hyperinflation, but an inflation regime we have not seen for decades. tom: the deepest system in this financial world is foreign-exchange and that is what i will continue to stare at. my constructive news is euro stability. lisa: stability but ongoing policy divergence the story there. policy divergence also in turkey, honestly. what kind of story does this tell? the bank of erdogan is getting a thumbs down on the global stage. at what point does that cause a political crisis for him? tom: when damian sassower and
megan greene are on the same page, they do not by the idiosyncratic framework for any story, but particular for turkey. you heard those experts say it is not idiosyncratic, at some point it filters over. lisa: it filter over and i whether if there are certain -- and i wonder if there are certain banking channels where countries are looking at inflation rates trying to get control of them, seeing the gravitational lure of the dollar and not being able to get ahead of it. i am thinking about argentina. tom: i talked to damian sassower off the mic about the black markets in argentina. at 100 pesos per dollar, i'm thinking 200. lisa: i thought you would say you were talking to him about the red sox. tom: i should've done that with megan greene but there was so much news. turkish lira, 11.12.
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right now. >> everything you need to get set for the start of u.s. trading. this is "bloomberg: the open" with jonathan ferro. jonathan: from new york, we begin with the big issue. one man's bubble, another man's full market. >> there are some extraordinary valuations. >> we forecast this multiple. >> it is my favorite call for 2022. >> stocks are still the most interesting investment. >> definitely pockets of green. >> that is uncomfortable for investors. >> to not take money off the table. >>