Skip to main content

tv   Bloomberg Surveillance  Bloomberg  November 19, 2021 8:00am-9:00am EST

8:00 am
>> it is difficult to see how, at current levels, multiples expand further. >> i think some of the high valuations may be worth it in some cases. >> i think we come close to double digits. >> corporation fundamentals couldn't be better. >> you are looking at a strong trajectory for growth over the next several years. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: a little bit of risk aversion to end the week. for our audience worldwide, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance ," live on tv and radio. alongside lisa abramowicz, i am
8:01 am
jonathan ferro, together with matt miller. tom keene back on monday. small caps taking it on the chin. lisa: the fact that you set a little bit of risk aversion highlights the mode we have. yes, we are having potential lockdowns in other places beyond just austria in europe, yet we are not seeing a mature move lower in a broad majority of stocks. even if you are, it is not that significant. jonathan: lucky to have our resident expert on austria joining us on the program. [laughter] we are in session lows now, down 1% off of tighter restrictions in some european economies. matt: if you think what is happening in austria, it is pretty unbelievable. they will mandate a vaccine for the entire country, something that is unthinkable in the u.s. and that i do not think the germans could do either. it is politically not viable in
8:02 am
most western countries, and i do not think it will be possible in austria. jonathan: what is your attention now come away from europe? the single name level, the rally on the bond markets? matt: for me, this morning, it was the fx market. i noticed a big spike around four: 20 this morning on the bloomberg dollar index. then i quickly looked at the yen. we have been seeing real dollar strength against the japanese yen over the past couple of sessions. i was watching for 1.15. the yen was even stronger than the dollar even as the euro and the pound weakened against the greenback. that tells me there is risk aversion going on a little bit, because people are going to the dollar but a lot as they go into the yen. jonathan: 1% live on euro-dollar. we have not been here since july, 2020. lisa: if you look at the swiss franc, that is another place of incredible risk aversion. you do wonder how much this
8:03 am
isolates them and how much leverage it gives the ecb to keep going with bond buying. jonathan: the euro equity market on the s&p 500, some week is out there. down at 14%. out for the airlines on both sides of the atlantic. iag, british airways, taking it on the chin big time. airlines on both sides of the atlantic struggling. we get a helping hand for anyone concerned about crude prices. 76.35 on wti. lisa: how much can president biden potentially avoid the release of special petroleum fund because of what is going on with his job honing with china and now the covid wave. jonathan: that's becoming up as well. vice chair clarida. we have hardly talked about vice chair clarida. his name is barely in the mix
8:04 am
going into next year. lisa: when he has been speaking -- he will not necessarily be part of the leadership in any way. when he has spoken, he will tow the line. will he change today, especially as you hear growing consensus about the rising threat of inflation? jonathan: waiting for the next fed chair -- it is amazing vice chair clarida has not been talked about. he has been a guiding light can when chairman powell struggled with communication, you are looking through the list of fed speakers, waiting to hear from one man, vice chair clear that -- clarida. matt: i do not think it is as easy to put him in a camp as a dove or hawk. when i see a headline seeing -- saying neel kashkari things we need more stimulus, that is not surprising. but clarida is one that you
8:05 am
cannot always put in a drawer -- that's a german saying directly translated into english. jonathan: it works. matt: so it is more valuable to hear from him. jonathan: you can guess what kashkari will say before he says it. you wait for the inflection from people who will pivot, like clarida. even if he did, how much weight with that carry? lisa: here is the thing, and let's be honest. fed chair powell, if he is replaced, he has to be replaced with someone who is on the board. if you will be switched out, that will be a major component. jonathan: joining us as nadia lovell, of ubs. 5000 next year but not year and -- end. in june of next year. then only an extra 100 points
8:06 am
from there over the next six months. can you walk me through the trajectory of the next six months that you inspect to play out? nadia: we believe 2022 will be a year of discovery for markets and individuals are the last two years have been somewhat unusual, but next year, we think financial markets will discover what normal looks like from a growth and inflation standpoint. we think it will be a year of two halves, which is why you see the spread, the first half being elevated economic growth, looking for growth of a quarter hyper percent. but as it normalizes, we look for the second have to be lower growth, more healthy and above trend, more subdued inflation. we think, in that environment, the s&p can reach 5000 by the time we get to june of next year. lisa: are you looking at what is going on in europe right now as a blip or a potential risk scenario that could move to the u.s. should this pandemic start to pick up again? nadia: absolutely.
8:07 am
we always watch covid cases very closely. yes, the rise in cases overseas is concerning, and that could translate to the u.s. we have seen this pattern play out before. that is why we do not think we are out of the words, and that is why we continue to believe -- out of the woods, and that is why we continue to believe the fed will be patient. we do not think the fed will be overly aggressive, particularly as covid cases have not fully resolved yet. matt: how important is disinflation call for you? we had a "bloomberg businessweek" cover that pointed out, if you make the wrong call, as a strategist, it is bad. if you make the right call, you are a hero for decades. nadia: inflation is something we will watch closely, but we do think inflation will be subdued next year. much of the spike has been
8:08 am
driven by the more flexible component. so things that price more quickly, food, energy, auto, hotels. if you look at the flexible cpr, it is up nearly 15%. but we do think the more flexible elements will normalize in 2022. we are looking for inflation to get slightly on 2% by december of 2022. jonathan: there is one thing missing from this call -- no rate hikes until 2023, inflation to subside by the end of next year. very bullish by the middle of next year. i looked through the preferred sectors -- energy, financials, discretionary, houses. where is the i.t. story? where is the information technology story in your call? nadia: yes. unusual at the moment. again, with covid cases rising,
8:09 am
we typically see volatility and more tree inflation trade as well as reopening trade -- re flation trade as well as reopening trade. we always advise clients to add on to the position, but we think that are more growth opportunities in more cyclical areas of the market, which is why we are positioned that way. if we see a more sustainable rise -- jonathan: good stuff, as always. nadia lovell of ubs. looking for 5000 in the s&p june next year. it is crystal ball type stuff, but it is just about working out. and where we go stateside, this from the fda, authorizing moderna for an adult booster dose of the vaccine in the united states. lisa: it is progress, but the bar is getting moved.
8:10 am
this is frustrating for people with the pandemic. initially, we thought the vaccine would be this panacea. now we are thinking maybe not. maybe it is a booster. maybe it is masks. maybe it is distancing, especially as more people do not get vaccinated. can you imagine a mandate here? jonathan: no. i imagine most of our audience cannot imagine that. the booster dose to be given at least six months after the primary dose, in line of what we have heard from pfizer. matt: that fits me at december 27. i will be standing in line for the booster dose in germany, because they will allow boosters for everybody over the age of 18. they are trying to allow you to do as much as you can without mandate being -- mandating you to do much of anything to that is kind of the political climate there. i think you are seeing the same thing here. even when we see mandate in the u.s., for kind -- four companies of -- for companies of more than
8:11 am
100 employees, you have to get a vaccine or test every week, which is a very big out. jonathan: magenta in the premarket up almost 5%. lisa: and today, the cdc will potentially meet to talk about recommending the blister for everyone over the age of 18, to get back to where we thought we were. jonathan: interesting the new york banks are basically there. lisa: they want to avoid the second wave, third wave, fourth wave, and they are getting concerned about some of the numbers going up. jonathan: joining us shortly, we will hear from greg valliere of agf investments. the year equity market down about one third of 1%. from new york city, good morning. this is bloomberg. laura: with the first word news, i am laura wright. house democrats are expected to pass president biden's $1.6
8:12 am
trillion economic agenda today. they had hoped for a vote late yesterday, but republican leader kevin mccarthy put that off with a lengthy speech from the floor that lasted into the early hours this morning. meanwhile, the nonpartisan congressional budget office released its estimate that the biden bill does not contain enough tax increases to pay for itself. two progressive democrats senators say they are opposed to jerome powell getting a second term as chair of the fed. they say that powell lacks a strong commitment to address the growing risk of climate change. president biden will announce his assistant before thanksgiving. austria will impose a nationwide lockdown next week. germany may take a similar move. it is all part of europe's effort to cope with a surge of the deadly virus. austria will also require all residents to get a vaccination.
8:13 am
christmas came early for british stores. retail sales in the u.k. rose better than expected.8 of -- .8%. -- apple wants to speed up development of its electric car, focusing on full self driving capabilities. the new head is pushing for a self-driving car as early as 2025. global news 24 hours a day on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm laura wright. this is bloomberg. ♪ this is bloomberg. ♪
8:14 am
8:15 am
8:16 am
8:17 am
>> the partial stabilization of u.s.-china relations coming out
8:18 am
of the recent summit between xi jinping and president biden is, on balance, good news for the wider region. because it takes they geopolitical temperature down a notch or two. that actually creates more political space for other bilateral relationships to enter, i would hope, into a less of factors -- fractious period . jonathan: that was kevin rudd. from new york city, good morning. lisa abramowicz, matt miller, jonathan ferro. here is the price action off what is happening the back of europe. restrictions and austria. more to come, perhaps, in germany and the rest of the continent. small caps have struggled, down more than 1%. a big move in euro dollar. we are back to about 0.9% lower. the bid on the german bond
8:19 am
market following through in the treasury market. and crude back with a 76 handle. lisa: this is significant. we thought we were on the precipice of a huge change. on the airline stocks, we thought it would free up, people would begin to travel again. that is getting canceled, highly short-term. jonathan:jonathan: that is where the focus is on the united states, right now, speaker pelosi on the house floor. greg valliere joins us now. let's start right here. what we can achieve today in the house and how much longer it would take to achieve the same thing in the senate. greg: we will get it, probably today, in the house. but i will issue a fake out alert. even if the house passes it today, the senate will take weeks and weeks to resolve all of these issues -- state and local taxes, paid leave, electronic vehicles. joe manchin has issues with all of that stuff, but he really has
8:20 am
an issue with inflation and things spending $2 trillion is not appropriate. jonathan: what did you learn of the last 24 hours? greg: i learned of the house has come together. i think that is important. but i've also learned, in the senate, there is a lot of dissent over this bill. i will be shocked if we got anything done, finalized, the next month or so. it will take longer. i still think that is a chance the whole thing could collapse. lisa: what do you think the idea of the cbo score was not as bad as many people had expected gives a greater chance to something getting passed? greg: what did they say about wagner? his music was not as bad as it sounded? [laughter] it is possible that this score by the congressional budget office helps a little with a handful of moderates, but it is still going to lose money. you would have to be totally
8:21 am
delusional to think that this would not lose money in the next 10 years. lisa: we have been talking a lot about the nomination of the next fed chair. just how much washington has lost the plot when it comes to all the different strains of narratives here, whether it is inflation, additional spending, or whether it is rate policies going into next year. what is your explanation for the confusion in the narrative for the lack of decision-making down in d.c.? greg: i wish i had a good explanation. i think this delay has been inexplicable. to me, it shows a lack of confidence in powell by joe biden, maybe even a lack of confidence in janet yellen, who apparently advised joe biden weeks and weeks ago to renominate powell. it is perplexing to see this. maybe biden is the listening too much to the left, to people like elizabeth warren. if i am jerome powell, i have to be a little concerned after being left to twist in the wind the last two or three weeks. matt: can i play the progressive
8:22 am
devils advocate? you are saying it is delusional that this will not cost money over the next decade, but i am sure that the white house would argue, when you make childcare easier to deal with, when you make nutrition more readily available, when you make schools more assessable -- accessible, you're greasing the machinery of economy and allowing us to be more productive. isn't that the progressive version of the lacquer curve? maybe it will work. greg: yes, i think maybe all the individual proposals you mentioned will be positive. i do not think president biden has sold as well. he has allowed the debate to go to the republicans, who has said this will exacerbate inflation. he has not hit hard enough to
8:23 am
defend the programs you listed. matt: what about the tax side? is the middle state in the tri-state area going to get relief with the salt deduction? greg: probably something, but it may not be as much as proponents hoped. the whole issue of taxation has been overlooked, in my opinion, as we have debated spending. on taxes, there will be a lot. minimum taxes on corporations, a surcharge on the wealthy -- lots of things i think i not been fully vetted by the ways and means committee chairman, rich neil. -- rich neal. taxes will be another reason this will not fly through the senate. jonathan: i want to talk more about the substance of the bill. you mentioned the ev credits. the extra credits you get by buying an ev assembled by union members -- senator manchin is pushing back on this. elon musk, too.
8:24 am
what is happening with this particular part? greg: it will be really contentious with justin trudeau in canada and mexico as well, seeing that the u.s. have huge subsidies for people to buy electric vehicles that could hurt the auto industry in canada and mexico. if this is in the final bill, i would predict that canadians would bring charges under the u.s.-mexico-canada trade deal of unfair subsidies. jonathan: an interesting final point there. greg valliere of agf. thank you. what is your take? do you think anyone needs a tax credit to buy an electric vehicle? matt: i think the real problem is the infrastructure, frankly. it is not really about the tax credit. if you get $7,000, eight thousand dollars, $9,000 to make a decision of which car to buy on an electric car, you may decide to do that. the real problem is are there
8:25 am
enough charging stations? can i actually at what i need to go without having range anxiety? jonathan: that is part of the effort as well. lisa: yeah, that there is a big part that goes to the infrastructure to build out some of the electric vehicle network. i wonder if it gets it far enough. i do here we are hearing an increasing number of senators, including senator manchin, c more comfortable -- he even demonstrated he would be ok with a vote for the end of the year. earlier, he was more wishy-washy. jonathan: depends what he will say when he gets the vote. lisa: of course. that is a minor caveat. [laughter] but at least he was not saying it was premature or they are moving too quickly. matt: i feel like that is his m.o. he allowed the $3.5 trillion framework to go through and then nuked it. that is what he does, allows them to discuss but then will not play. jonathan: the russell getting
8:26 am
hit this morning, down more than 1%. there is trouble in europe on the vaccine front. austria would like to mandate it. restrictions are back. lockdowns could be back. weakness in europe bleeds through to the united states. from new york city, this is bloomberg. ♪
8:27 am
this is elodia. she's a recording artist. 1 of 10 million people that comcast has connected to affordable internet in the last 10 years. and this is emmanuel, a future recording artist, and one of the millions of students we're connecting throughout the next 10.
8:28 am
through projectup, comcast is committing $1 billion so millions more students, past... and present, can continue to get the tools they need to build a future of unlimited possibilities. every day in business brings something new. so get the flexibility of the new mobile service designed for your small business. introducing comcast business mobile. you get the most reliable network with nationwide 5g included. and you can get unlimited data for just $30 per line per month when you get four lines or mix and match data options. available now for comcast business internet customers with no line-activation fees or term contract required. see if you can save by switching today. comcast business. powering possibilities.
8:29 am
8:30 am
jonathan: this is not the quiet end to the week you might have been looking for. lisa abramowicz, matt miller, jonathan ferro. your equity market down 11 on the s&p. small caps with underperformance , down 1% through most of the morning. more restrictions in austria, going back into lockdown, a compulsory order for covid vaccinations by sometime in february. germany also struggling. euro-dollar back to 1.12. pfizer and madura. pfizer positive 1.7%. moderna up almost 6%. the fda authorizing moderna adult booster dose. pfizer and biontech booster
8:31 am
closed for all u.s. adults. it is over to the cdc. lisa: everyone over the age of 18, not just those who deem themselves immuno compromised. the momentum was shifting. it was on getting a vaccine. it was controversial pushing boosters, now there seems to be more urgency getting additional protection. jonathan: let's turn to the big story going into next week. we have been told we would get a chair decision before thanksgiving. lara rhame think she knows who it will be. you're convinced chairman powell gets another term. why? lara: inflation is clearly a huge problem. the administration is getting a lot of commentary and criticism about the fact it has allowed inflation to get this bad. if i am in jay powell's -- if
8:32 am
i'm in biden's chair, re-nominating powell gives me cover should inflation not resolved by the time the next election cycle runs around. lisa: what is president biden looking for from the fed? we've been talking about whether there is any difference between lael brainard and jerome powell. what does he want to see? lara: he wants consistency. he wants a strong partner with the treasury. at the end of the day he just wants to be able to focus on his agenda and for the fed to help the economy resolve itself. this is a distraction. your point, there is not a ton of daylight between what we think the policy out, will be should we get lael brainard as the new fed chair. like everything else they are
8:33 am
thinking of the next election cycle. lisa: let's look at the broader economic outlook. you are saying you see six or higher year-over-year inflation rates throughout the first quarter of next year but it will come back down to 3% by the end of the year. what are the inputs you get from this? is it the labor market getting more normal? is it commodity prices normalizing? how do we get 3%? lara: i like to build by cbi forecast bottom up. energy is what you look at. energy prices have doubled, oil prices have doubled. look at durable goods. over 13% year on year. i do not think we see it continue trajectory like that. even if these prices stay at high levels, on the month on month levels you see it moderating back down. i want to be clear that anybody
8:34 am
who says they can nail down an inflation or cast probably has too much confidence. the uncertainty is wide. it does not take much inflation to impact financial markets. it will probably be higher than pre-pandemic. matt: you work at the federal reserve bank of new york were a while. you know how they operate. do you think this fed is a lot different than the fed we saw, the paul volcker we saw in the 1970's and 1980's, in terms of not only its adoption us but its desire to put -- not only its dovishness but it's desire to please markets? lara: you hit on something important. when you look at market pricing it feels like we internalize a senior number of rate hikes next year.
8:35 am
the equity market has not made that adjustment. i think equity markets may still be carrying the memory of the last two rate hike cycles when they were able to push the fed back to neutral, away from hiking. they still carry with them the idea financial conditions may override some of what the fed talks about with their economic mandate. we have to remember going into this rate hike cycle that rate hike cycles are difficult, it is a fraud path to walk and they are -- it is a fraught path to walk in the fed needs to give conviction they are working on solving the inflation problem or else markets will throw a tantrum. matt: i know it is trendy to be really transparent. when you were at the fed it certainly was not their main goal. is it important for the fed to be as transparent as it is? lara: the fed has a mini people
8:36 am
at the top. it is a very consensus driven organization and you do get the sense that for all of the talking week from our numerous fed presidents and board members come at the end of the day it is three big personalities driving policy. jay powell is at the top of the list. lisa: i loved matt's question about whether this fed is different and how much attention they pay and whether they are concerned at disrupting yet. how much of a draw down in the equity market would it take to make an impact on the economy? lara: i do not think it is the size of the drop down, i think it is the speed. when we look at how the economy is doing right now, we have a lot of support from higher wage growth, we have a lot of support from a healthy balance sheet. when we think about factors which are starting to impact consumer confidence, inflation
8:37 am
is there, and we had a highly volatile period of equities, that could make people even more cautious. that is the concern. it is household confidence that has kept us going. lisa: our markets correct that the fed will cave to any tantrum in markets that will subsequently ease policy or is this a different fed with different parameters because of the inflationary risk? lara: it is kind of a jump ball right now. we have the new framework that leads you to question what sort of inflation level at the end of the day they think is reasonable and they are targeting. you have the recurring issue where they need to prioritize financial conditions over some of the underlying economic conditions. they will watch housing closely. housing may be more important to them than headline equities. when they think about raising rates they want to restore
8:38 am
credibility and make sure markets believe they are going to be able to tackle the inflation problem. the economy is decelerating anyway. i do not think they want to slam on the brakes so hard that calls multiple sectors of -- they cause multiple sectors of the economy to meltdown, especially things like housing. matt: i am reminded by listeners we are simulcast at this hour. i welcome listeners on a.m. 1130 and sirius xm 119. i was playing the progressive earlier and talking about the possibility that build back better make greece the wheels of the economy and increase productivity. maybe biden is right when he says he will fight inflation with this spending rather than boost it. what is your take as an economist? lara: that is a very long run game.
8:39 am
clearly we have needed infrastructure spending. that is something both parties have try to push through and it is important. we need help. we need to compete with other countries like china who have invested huge amounts in their own infrastructure. at the end of the day, i think companies in the u.s., it is often companies that start these trends, and we have seen companies be reticent on the capital spending side. that ramps up next year. we could get a productivity boost with or without the targeted infrastructure spending . companies are realizing labor it a scarce resource and it is getting more expensive and it is going to change their capital spending calculation. they will want to get in there and engage in more productivity enhancing spending. jonathan: always enjoyed catching up with you. lara rhame of fs investments. in about 20 minutes we will get
8:40 am
the views of mohamed el-erian, bloomberg opinion palm missed and queens college cambridge -- bloomberg opinion column missed and queens college cambridge. lisa: he would agree with bill dudley that the fed is vastly behind the curve and they are committing a huge policy error. the divergences of opinions by such respected professionals is noteworthy. i've never seen anything like this. jonathan: interesting comments from jason furman earlier this week and a couple of questions i want to bring up with mohamed el-erian. why we are conditioned so much by the post financial crisis era and not conditioned by the pre-financial crisis conditions where we perhaps moved too late on the federal reserve. wire weakens edition -- why are we conditioned by the former and not the latter? matt: is important to recognize the difference between the volcker and greenspan fed lara
8:41 am
rhame work for and the fed of ben bernanke, janet yellen, and now jerome powell, possibly lael brainard. the need for transparency, the need to support the markets is not the same, or was not the same then as it is now. no interesting what mohamed el-erian has to say. jonathan: matt, this was fun. good to see you. martin weiss, the ambassador of austria the united states. lisa: send him a bottle of wine. jonathan: from new york city, on radio, on tv, this is bloomberg. laura: the food and drug administration has expanded the emergency use authorization of two covid booster shots to all adult in the united states.
8:42 am
the boosters made by moderna and pfizer biontech have received the ok. that makes millions more people eligible for extra protection. there is concern about a potential winter wave of covid cases. house republican leader kevin mccarthy called president biden's economic agenda the most reckless and irresponsible spending in the history of the u.s. mccarthys lengthy speech prevented democrats from passing the one point $6 trillion legislation last night. they are said to approve it today. the price of oil is headed for a fourth weekly decline. the worsening covid crisis in europe has renewed the possibility for lockdowns. germany says it cannot rule that out. meanwhile the oil market has been fixated by the prospect that both the u.s. and china would release crude from their strategic reserves. the european central bank president christine lagarde says the central bank should not
8:43 am
tighten monetary policy too soon despite inflation. in frankfurt lagarde said she did not anticipate an increase in interest rates. euro area prices are rising the fastest pace since 2008. bitcoin has now fallen almost 20% from its record in two weeks. the largest cryptocurrency is hovering around $57,000. some analysts say a sharp pullback is normal after prices rose 40% in october. there is also a crypto crackdown in china and new u.s. reporting procedures have hurt. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am laura wright. this is bloomberg. ♪
8:44 am
8:45 am
8:46 am
8:47 am
>> what looks like a very interesting and somewhat exotic effort to literally mind new
8:48 am
coins in order to trade with them has the potential for undermining currencies, for undermining the role of the dollar as the reserve currency, for destabilizing nations. lisa: that was hillary clinton throwing some shade on bitcoin, on crypto assets in general, adding fuel to a number of officials who come out saying what they think about this asset class. meanwhile you are seeing bitcoin fall nearly 20% from its peak about two weeks ago. we are going to get to that. i am here with matt miller who is an aficionado of all things crypto. i do want to focus on the other commodity. that would be oil, which has fallen almost 10% since october 26. i wonder how much what we are seeing in europe is a sticky story as we head into next year.
8:49 am
mike mcglone covers both because bitcoin is increasingly considered a commodity. what is your sense of how much the oil price has to fall or whether we are seeing a bit of a wobble before its ongoing assent? mike: i think oil is going to $50 a barrel and that is not profound at all, that is just the average price of collapse since 2014. the average cost in the u.s. is $37 a barrel, in 2015 it was $60 a barrel. oil is responding to elasticity. the u.s. will return to being a net exporter next year, that is based on most estimates. demand has not increased. supply has taken off. it is the simple rules of economics and you have the other roles of covid not going away. i was too early. i look at it next year when we are sitting around the thanksgiving table, crude oil will be the guide. lisa: have we seen the high
8:50 am
point for oil in the near term? mike: i think it peak at $85. i have been watching the one year curve. it has not been able to get above $72 a barrel. now it is starting to collapse down to the pasta production. -- back to the cost of production. i look at it as compared to things like bitcoin where we have no elasticity, elasticity in crude oil will accelerate. we will see that trend go right back down, it be below 50. matt: we get a self-fulfilling prophecy? if producers also think we are going down to $50 to they make as much as we can right now? mike: that might be more complicated. i think it is simple. they see profits.
8:51 am
when it comes to commodities, to supply elasticity and demand. they see profits and they will find ways to bring on supply. opec is making themselves redundant like they did before, they are helping to boost these profits for shale and the canadian oil seen. matt: we saw bitcoin dropped to 20% below its all-time high, i think it hit about $69,000 a couple of weeks ago. now we are looking at $57,000. today it was down even as the rest of the complex was gaining. we saw gains in either, litecoin , everything you could think of except for bitcoin. what is going on? mike: i appreciate you bring that out early on. good support around 4000 was the old high. it does have fundamental
8:52 am
declining supply, increasing demand. bitcoin is coming through a hangover. all of the extensive speculative leverage around the etf launch are getting flushed out. we are hitting those stops it will go right back to the bull market. that is the key thing to remember about bitcoin, there are enduring bull markets that have corrected. you look at the other ones, that is just massive speculation. lisa: we went in with the quote from hillary clinton talking about crypto assets. she says it has the potential for undermining currencies. what is your response to that? mike: i enjoyed listening to that this morning because the facts are the exact opposite. the most widely traded crypto's are digital dollars. 95% are crypto dollars. digitalization, cryptocurrency is enhancing the dominance of the dollar on the global scale. that is part of the reason china is pushing back. unless those trends reverse crypto is great for the u.s. and
8:53 am
now they have cash, they push against china and enhance the value of the dollar. it is just a matter of time until the u.s. will regulate it properly. matt: when do we get central-bank digital coin from the federal reserve? mike: it has already happened. $130 billion now tracking the dollar. what the fed will do, what the government will do. they will regulate it like they do banks. white mess up this awesome technology? in crypto dollars you can transact 24/7 and earn interest like euro dollars. it is just like how the euro-dollar got started. matt: i got excited for a second because when i saw the story about amazon trying to throw out visa credit cards, i thought why don't they have their own point?
8:54 am
then we can just buy and sell stuff on amazon with amazon crypto. is that going to happen? are we going to start seeing big companies make their own crypto? mike: what is happened with visa and mastercard is unique. they are not gravitating towards stable coins because it is a much easier way to transact. using bitcoin in crypto to buy things does not make sense to me , but is helping facilitate the dollar which is still the world's best way to transact and transmit. you just do not want to hold it long-term because you cannot get any interest. lisa: mike mcglone, thank you for joining us from miami in your trader jacket with the purple lined lapel as he remembers his days in the pit. i am fascinated at some of the market moves. i know you are always an expert on bitcoin. also today has been a dramatic move in the two year yield. katie gray felt pointing out the biggest drop in two year yield since march of 2020.
8:55 am
this comes on the heels of what is going on in germany and austria. i wonder how much fed policy will be dictated by the ecb or how much divergence can continue. matt: we are seeing a lot of asset prices circle back to 2020. we also have the highest point in the bloomberg dollar index in's 2020 at 1178 -- since 2020 at 1179. there are concerns the pandemic could reach -- we are at records in germany and austria. as you point out, there is a huge difference between infections now and last year and that's and hospitalizations -- and deaths and hospitalizations. fortunately the latter is much lower. lisa: why do we see a loosening up of some of the policies in
8:56 am
asian nations as they try to deal with the endemic pandemic -- endemic infection as opposed to a pandemic. the euro 1.1288. this is bloomberg. ♪
8:57 am
it's another day. and anything could happen. it could be the day you welcome 1,200 guests and all their devices. or it could be the day there's a cyberthreat. only comcast business' secure network solutions give you the power of sd-wan and advanced security integrated on our activecore platform so you can control your network from anywhere, anytime. it's network management redefined. every day in business is a big day. we'll keep you ready for what's next. comcast business powering possibilities. so many people are overweight now,
8:58 am
and asking themselves, "why can't i lose weight?" for most, the reason is insulin resistance, and they don't even know they have it. conventional starvation diets don't address insulin resistance. that's why they don't work. now there's release from golo. it naturally helps reverse insulin resistance, stops sugar cravings, and releases stubborn fat all while controlling stress and emotional eating. at last, a diet pill that actually works. go to golo.com to get yours.
8:59 am
jonathan: pulling back from all-time highs. from new york city, good morning. your equity market down eight on the s&p. -.1%.
9:00 am
the drama this morning in europe. the countdown to the open starts right now. >> everything you need to get set for the start of u.s. trading. this is "bloomberg: the open" with jonathan ferro. jonathan: from new york, we begin with the big issue. another brick in the wall of worry. >> covid is back is a big risk. >> covid is back with a vengeance. >> there are risks on the inflation front. >> definitely pockets of green. >> you have this wall of liquidity. >> everybody is nervous. >> the fed is your friend. >> this is where you make money. >>

72 Views

info Stream Only

Uploaded by TV Archive on