tv Bloomberg Markets European Close Bloomberg November 19, 2021 11:00am-12:00pm EST
>> the countdown is on in europe this is -- is on in europe. this is "bloomberg markets: european close," with guy johnson and alix steel. ♪ guy: what do you need to know about the market action we are seeing in europe? negative is the main story. you see red across the main european continent. the driver of this is what is happening in place is like austria and germany. the austrian index down by 3.2%. germany down by 0.5%. austria is the epicenter of the action right now, as we see a lockdown being imposed there, and talks that germany could follow. the ibex down by 1.8%.
the u.k. down by about 0.5%. broadly, the stoxx 600, after peaking midweek, looks like it is going to have a negative close on the week. it is going to be a really tight call. we will check in 30 minutes as we get it to the close. alix: volume pretty solid in europe, as well as in the u.s. a negative day for some equity market. s&p energies off free .5%. exxon having a huge gap down as you have oil really falling out of bed. part of that is definitely lockdowns in europe. the plus side, the nasdaq 100 up 0.5% area if you take away stuff like apple and tesla, things aren't looking that great even for the large cap tech stocks. you to have chris weller making a speech, talking about the fact that the labor market could recover sooner than we think, so we could see rate hikes in 2022. you are seeing yields down by about five or six basis points, paring some of those losses, off the lows of the session.
it is helping the s&p stay stable in some capacity is going to be pfizer, up by just 0.5 percent. moderna also one of the best performance stocks after they got fda approval for boosters for all adults in the u.s. we are talking boosters. over there, you are talking lockdowns. guy: boosters, lockdowns, vaccinations. in many ways, the vaccination story probably has been overtaken by the case count. that is the problem right now. you can vaccinate quick enough anymore because the rate of change, the delta is picking up so quickly, and that is the problem or places like austria and germany. germany no longer dismissing the possibility of a national lockdown. the head of germany's public health authority, the rki, sounding the alarm on this huge pickup we are seeing. >> all of germany is one big outbreak.
this is a nationwide state of emergency. we need to pull the emergency brake. guy: so you can look at this a number of ways. you can look at what is happening in germany and compare it with the u.k. at a headline level, i.e. the number of cases we are seeing. i will get the camera to follow me over. the k. is here. that is the blue line. germany is rapidly approaching the u.k. but that is not the point. as i mentioned, it is about the rate of change. the u.k. has been here for a while, and it is relatively stable, and seems to be coping. the rate of change in germany, austria, and lots of other countries, that has suddenly really picked up, and that i think is where the cause of concern is. it is not about the actual case counts. it is how quickly they are picking up. >> alix: and vaccinations at that point won't matter. it is what happens over the next few months. rasmus bech hansen is airfinity's ceo, a data and analytics company.
if austria is going to go into lockdown, what country is next? rasmus: i think we are seeing the fourth wave of covid early hitting hard almost everywhere you look. you are seeing increased numbers even in the u.s., and even in the u.k., also starting over the last couple of days to see an increase. but the one to watch is really germany because germany is in a very similar position to austria. it hasn't had the same vaccination uptick as some of the other countries. around 75% of the population, around the same as austria, where other countries have 90%, so germany is less protected and facing therefore a more difficult situation. the rate of change is really exponential above 50% week on week, so eventually the big question is, is there anything else they can do in germany to impose may be full lockdown as we see in austria?
i think germany's problem is that it is a federal state, so even if they decide things that need to be decided at the local state level, and we have seen that previous and the pandemic, that is harder for them to do then, for instance, in austria. guy: why has the u.k. been able to manage to develop a reasonably stable strategy, where the others are suddenly seeing this huge pickup? can you compare and contrast what has happened in the u.k. versus germany or austria? rasmus: that is a good point. i think u.k. has higher vaccination, so higher general level of protections, but also, u.k., we are seeing fairly high mortality numbers, caseloads, etc., so it is ultimately a question of what level do we accept. but i think what happened in the u.k., the delta hit earlier in the summer time, and maybe there was somewhat of a blessing because had higher temperatures,
less indoor, etc. seven that way, it was a better time to cope for the u.k., were now in the winter, there is less the countries can do. but it is also a political incisionv. b it is a trade-off, protecting people -- political decision. it is a trade-off, protecting people. u.k. has politically decided we are going to accept higher ongoing infection numbers and hospitalization numbers than some of the other countries might be willing to accept. alix: throughout the whole pandemic, the u.s. has been somewhere around six weeks behind what we have seen in europe. is the u.s. six weeks behind this one? rasmus: i think we are going to see, especially in the northern states of the u.s., a spike. we were always concerned going into the winter that that is going to be a difficult time for
european and u.s., and i don't see any signs that that is not happening. it is like a we will see continued increase, and as you point out, yes, we are getting boosters, we are getting vaccinations. we also have better medicine. but if you are seeing an expert initial growth rate, the only real measure is a nonmedical intervention and partial lockdowns, and i think some of the policies we are now seeing is four medic. guy: how high could the numbers get? rasmus: well, it is hard to say. it is basically a bid on whether it levels out because if you look at the u.k., what happened to some extent is it started to level off at one point. so that is the big question. if goes exponential, will it continue to go ask potential, or should we take the chance that it might level off naturally as the u.k. does? that was an easier decision to make the summertime.
i thicket is more dangerous to bet on that in the winter. so i thicket could go as high as the previous lockdown numbers because the key problem we have, even the vaccinated part, they can still transmit, so we will kind of continue to go, and ultimately if you are vaccinated, the risk of developing symptomatic disease, so it could go much significantly higher than it is right now. alix: thanks a lot. we appreciate that. rasmus bech hansen, airfinity ceo. we want to bring in bono by way to -- bring in bhanu baweja, ubs chief strategist. do we need to market to position for the winter? bhanu: i don't think you need to do that. you look at hospitalizations, we are somewhere between 30% and 40% where we were prevaccination
drive, so i don't think the markets are worried because we have seen this so money times. there's also the other issue we need to bear in mind, that some of the bottlenecks that we've had in the economy that were keeping growth much lower, german industrial production, for instance, 16% below that of italian industrial production because of a shortage of chips. some of these shortages are coming through, and you are seeing easing coming through, so you will see a pretty big increase in production for orders. so i think as long as hospitalizations are low again, it is a question of science. i do think the markets will look through that and focus on things like improving production in sweden, and germany, in japan, and my sicko. the auto rebound i think is going to be a massive rebound. i thing that is where market's going to focus. that's where markets are going to focus -- where markets are
going to focus. guy: if you put germany into lockdown, does that thesis still hold up? bhanu: if it is just one or two countries, i can see that germany is by far the most important one. if we go into protracted lockdown, that thesis will not apply. but if we go into selective and short lockdown, i think that thesis will still apply. demarcus will look through that. alix: if you take at -- the markets will look through that. alix: if you take a look at the markets, they are looking for that. is that a buying opportunity? bhanu: when you look further out , with or without covid, earnings momentum is probably going to slip towards close to zero in q2 or q3 of next year. at the same time, liquidity is going to be withdrawn. over the course of this year, liquidity has become more easily available area real interest rates have dropped, credit spreads have dropped. from a financial and monetary conditions perspective, even though growth has improved, next
year the growth of liquidity makes it deteriorate, so i think that will be a buying opportunity through to q2. we think the market will peak into two because of exhaustion of earnings momentum, which is more organic in the face of tightening liquidity. the 10 year real rate is one of the most mispriced assets out there, so if the risk-free rate moves, every real rate moves. we think the tenure goes higher. guy: how -- the 10 year goes higher. guy: how quickly could that happen? bhanu: that is a very important point because this year, we have seen the supply be so limited. you could see a pretty rapid change in real yields, so i think between q1 and q2 of next year, you can see as much as 50
to 70 basis points, and through a 12 month period, we are thinking 100 basis points higher in u.s. tenure real yields -- u.s. 10 year real yields. guy: that a significant and will have lasting effects. stick around. i want to talk about what is happening with the euro right now. strength certainly a theme that has been present this week. the question is, how long does it stick around, and what are the opportunities around that? we will talk about that next. this is bloomberg. ♪
>> we do not think this state of higher inflation is likely. we are committed to ensuring that inflation stays at our 2% target in the medium-term. today, inflation is largely being pushed up by the exceptional circumstances created by the pandemic. guy: that was ecb president christine lagarde speaking at the european banking congress that took place in cranford. b -- in frankfurt. bhanu baweja of ubs is still with us. would you chase euro-dollar down to $1.10? bhanu: no, i wouldn't. there is a big risk that you go through serious lockdowns across europe, and in that case, you will have euro going down. our base case, if we were to avoid that lockdown, i think the event we want to be looking for is a significant pickup in
japanese industrial production and german industrial production, and across europe, please is that have really suffered from supply lockdowns, particularly of chips, so i think there could be a tactical rebound of the euro. i don't to get mix a lot of since chasing it lower. medium-term, there are big headwinds building for the euro, not least from ecb's communication challenge, which is going to be huge. inflation on the one side, btp spreads on the other side. there is some real serious medium-term challenges. but i think cyclically, i don't want to be selling the european -- the euro-dollar or european stocks. alix: there's clearly going to be a divergence. why do you not play that, or how do you play that? bhanu: do you know what is really interesting? this year, european inflation swaps have done 55 basis points more than the u.s. has. that doesn't make any sense if
you think u.s. is going to burn in inflation -- is going to burden inflation. so that is one way to think about it. the other way to think about it is not just in terms of policy divergence. think about it in terms of who is most vulnerable to u.s. real rates going up. that is not the euro. that is emerging markets. you can think of that in a venn diagram sense. you want to thing about places that are hit from china, because that is where growth is extremely slow as well, and u.s. high real rates as well. these are some of the places in emerging markets where we think that is the most elegant way to be long against these guys rather than be long against euro or yen. guy: i want to talk em and a little more detail, but sticking with europe for the moment, in terms of the impact that a rebound in the euro would have,
where does that take me? does it take me back to the cyclical domestic rebound story? you would have thought that the exporters would have been benefiting. we talked about this earlier, $1.12, $1.13. walk me through how that changes my tactical approach to investing in european stocks. bhanu: if you do get a 300, 400 basis points rebound in the euro, i don't think that will fundamentally take you away from cyclicals. i think european exporters will continue to do well because global trade is very strong, and therefore exporters in general will continue to do well. it is just so strong for the next six months. the other area which i think will do well is because this is going to be a time of rising real yields. financials which have been stopping and starting, i think european financials over the next three to four months are a pretty decent trade, but this is
a trade. the value trade is a trade. european equities are a trade and q2 of next year is earning momentum's come down and real yields are going higher. we think that is when markets and equities top out, and you probably switch back to equities at that point. alix: where in the u.s.? bhanu: growth, because we want to move away from value at that time. you want to move away from momentum, move towards growth and quality. we think on a 12 month horizon, growth will once again, and it has done this year as well which is bizarre because this has been such an inflationary year, growth has marginally outperform value. i think the same playbook is going to apply on a 12 month basis, perhaps not a three month basis. we go back to growth, we go back to quality in the u.s. that is where the earnings are going to compound at the fastest pace. guy: i mentioned em.
let's talk about it a little bit. that is where your heritage and history lies in terms of your experience working through the numbers, figuring out exact a what is happened. talk to me a little bit about why em is out of form. you have been an em specialist for most of your career. have you been surprised that we haven't seen em doing better in this environment? bhanu: i find myself, and i have found for the better part of the last 10 years, myself on the more bearish and of the em spectrum bearish -- bearish end of the em spectrum. but given the degree of tailwinds that em has had, lower real yields, higher commodity prices, tighter credit spreads, you would have thought em would do better. but the single most important variable is that develop markets have done even better, so em-dm growth differentials is the one thing that matters for capital
flows into em. when dm is doing this well, europe is analyzing 6% growth, it isn't enough for china to give 5% growth or for brazil to be view 6% growth. that opportunity cost is way too high, and that is likable remain invested in earnings they can trust. i'm afraid the same thing is going to happen next year, that the differential is going to move in favor of dm rather than em, plus the headwinds for emr going to increase. higher real yields, weaker global trade. these are some of the headwinds that are going to start increasing, so we expect another year of underperformance from em equities, also from em fx. em rates have blown up so much that there will be very interesting opportunities also you have to differentiate across asset classes, but i can't say we are holding our breath for a renaissance across em. alix: you really painted a stark picture of the next 12 months in terms of the trade on what happens. what kind of volatility do you think we see within that, and
where do we see the volatility? does it spread? where does it go? bhanu: it is impressive because you think of bond vol is the mother vol, and the condition for all other asset classes to pick up, and it hasn't. i think the reason it hasn't, used will haven't seen significant divergence growth trends across different regions. growth picking up in em, improving in europe, very strong in the u.s. it is when you start to see that divergence, when domestic demand and em begins to slow down and global trade slows down, that is when people will thing about u.s. exceptionalism once again. i personally think that is a q2 and h2 thing, and the place where vol remains extremely low is both equities and fx, but particularly fx. visiting for defense through -- positioning for defense through fx vol makes sense now.
♪ alix: it is time now for the bloomberg business flash. ryanair is dropping the listing on the london stock exchange over brexit compliance hassles. the airline has had to limit stock purchases. trading volumes in london have blend old, -- have dwindled. a big change underway in the wants over city of london financial district. they will make them spoke khaki pants and casual jackets.
it goes against the old edict, never wear brown in town. guy, will you partake in this? guy: well, i am wearing black shoes right now, sticking to the old adage. when you are in the country, you can do whatever you want, but never wear brown in town used to be that way it went. but the lockdown has changed everything. you don't see that money people walking around in suits anymore. there does seem to be a kind of view you can wear whatever you want as long as you are not seeing clients, that seems to be the narrative. anyway, i still got to wear a suit. i don't see the powers that be here changing that anytime soon. the european close is next. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪
we are counting you down to the close. let's talk about what has been going on. today's news flow has been dominated by one-story. that is the lockdown and austria. it sent shockwaves across the rest of the continent, with germany being next. that is why you are seeing so much selling in europe. it is focused, and it is localized. it is on key areas. austria. the austrian market, vienna, down by 3%. under real pressure. i will show you it going down. as you can see, there are 3.1%. broadly, we are seeing losses as well. we're seeing 2/10 and 3/10. the london market is down by 4/10 of 1%. you are seeing localized selling, and you are seeing on the week we've had to how this is really turned over the last couple of days. we have peaks earlier on in the week area just north of 490.
we are at 486. on the wii, we are flat. it has been a round-trip for the stoxx 600. he markets are in. they are influencing. i want to talk about the euro-dollar. i want to talk about the boat race. brent is not up. crude is not down. that is good news. the president has been concerned. we see an spr release to ease gas prices in the other story that is linked to the story, it is also linked to the rate differentials. we have been below 130, and we are trading below that. we have been below it all week. today we have been trading around 130. down by around 1.5%. it will be interesting to see how the periphery works in this environment. less talk about what is happening with the stoxx 600. it has broken down. this is a one-day story. unsurprisingly i will focus on the bottom.
energy, banks, leisure, those are the week this is. you can see the individual stocks that we've been talking about. stay-at-home stocks are starting to catch a bit, again. banks and places like austria are under pressure. the airline stock, i can pick iag randomly, but there are others that are really feeling the pressure. they are up by 6.21 percent. we are back talking about stay-at-home stocks. we are focused on where they could add value. just 856.21%. our b.i. down by 6.7%. airline stocks are feeling it. oil is better. lockdown, not. iag is down 3.5%. alix: we thought next year was going to be about how good it could be. we have jasper joining us now. he leads the covers over in europe that covers the
transportation sector. how bad can it get for the index? >> it has certainly been a shock today. a real shock to the system. the reality is that airlines are always in the firing lines. they always tend to be towards -- sensitive towards any sort of reversal. the possibility of germany to follow with lockdown, has really set them back at a point when most airlines were really looking forward to positive christmas periods, and then to a really healthy rebound next year. for the past few weeks, all the talk is been about optimism, with a strong rebound in traffic did that. --. >> airlines have been pretty close to breakeven. this is really sort of venting that confidence. -- denting that confidence.
guy: winter is less important. we don't know will happen with ski season, it is pivotal to that, but airlines make the money in the summer. to what extent can they manage a short-term lot? there were a lot of idle during this. anyway. >> i think the concern here, the immediate concern about lockdown, is that we have to downgrade iag stock to advance the concern that optimism generally may be overdone. the overcapacity is being called into the market. it is at a time in the pandemic which would be capacity discipline like we have never seen before. airlines are desperate to get the cash flow back in.
it seems that there is certainly overcapacity in europe. companies like rhino are down several percent a day. there is also concerned about the north atlantic. there is also a lot of capacity in there. it just reopened and we are not seen the figures come through. we don't know exactly how much capacity the transatlantic support, but it may be a quick rush back from those people who are desperate to see friends on either side of the atlantic and also in europe. we have had people take a late holiday in october, but if that becomes an effect in the market, it could persist into next year. alix: we were prepping for guy to come here and visit the team, and now that seems like it is off the radar. the north atlantic and transatlantic's routes will they stay open altogether? >> that's another question.
if infection rates climbing europe, if we get the return of the lockdown, than the united states is only just open. it did previously take a one-size-fits-all view of it. they did the rest of the world, and resisted in alarming people for quite a long time. in the united kingdom, we had a rather different position and austria and germany. that remains very low. the u.k. began to roll out further vaccination, so it seems unlikely that there will be a major served -- surgeon infection. bridge airwaves -- british is under pressure. -- british airways under pressure. there is a wider concern in the
market about refugees are so dependent. will companies allow people to come to europe? >> that will be the critical question. big corporate. we were shy about this the other day. british companies are being the most hesitant. smaller companies are willing to take a risk, and larger companies, hr departments, they are being more cautious. thank you so much. enjoy the weekend. christopher jasper talking about what is happening. we have numbers going through from italy. the covid case numbers look fairly stable. the death rate from the day before has come down. people are watching a very carefully. northern italy, close proximity to austria, switzerland, it will be interesting to see what happens when you start to see
continued migration across those borders and whether or not northern italy picks up in the case count. alix: southern italy has a vaccination rate which is pretty good in comparison to germany. if i'm not mistaken, does that -- is that enough to fend off any kind of spread, or will break through its infections, and boosters need to catch up? that will be very interested. guy: northern italy is cold. people got -- go out. as it gets colder, and it starts to get colder across europe, we are stirring to see people go back inside, and that is a factor of white cases are picking up. we've wrapped up the european session with final numbers. just to give you a number idea. it is largely a negative week, but only just when it comes to these markets. those are the final numbers. main markets are down by about .4%.
that u.k. retail sales have risen month on month. that has ended the longest ever run of declines. we have become a nation of shoppers, rather than shopkeepers. going us now is stacy. s w retail advisor president. our consumers doing the right thing here. are they worried about shortages? >> the headlines have done their jobs. all of the supply chain fears have done their job because they are pushing consumers into stores earlier than last year. that is true for the united kingdom, and it is true for the united states. consumers are concerned, particularly with concerns. so many of the retailers are talking about half of their product coming in late for fall and christmas. >> what are people buying right now? >> some of the apparel numbers are actually encouraging. we are only down about 5% from pre-pandemic and the united
kingdom, so that is encouraging. sporting-goods are very strong. toys are starting the fly off the shelves. i think it is a mixture of outdoor stuff for our new lifestyles and of course, getting those toys before they sell out. those hot toys. people in the united kingdom are dining out. those numbers are up versus pre-pandemic for seated diners. if you had been out in london, you've seen it. >> has been busy out there. i can tell you. do you expect the next numbers to look good? what does it look like after christmas. >> i think what we have seen is somewhat of a authority. people are talking about black friday the corner. that will definitely be smaller this year. the deal is not as great. but it started one month ago. it was just like usual. a combination of those promotions early, for some unexpected, plus headlines.
it will pull things forward. we will also have inventory shortages as we get to christmas. maybe a peak and then a thought. then we have to worry about next year when supply chains get back into shape. to retails over order and do we get back into the inventory position again. >> a lot of black deals are free shipping. -- black friday deals are shipping. we have seen consumer sentiment rollover as inflation expectations move, but retail sales held up. can that continue on that trajectory, and it's at the same over and the united kingdom? works in the united states, we just had macy's and coal at and target -- kohl's and target. incredible numbers blew away all expectations. it is clear that consumers are out there and pulling forward. let's face it. we have not really had a full on holiday into years, so everyone
is really pushing it and getting into the spirit. in the united kingdom, i think the patterns are similar, but one thing we are seeing in both locations, and globally, full price selling is the story here. generally, discounts are down because inventory is down so much. >> let's pick up on the inventory. one of the key things that inventory has to be done right is returned. who is managing returns properly. who is ranting -- managing inventory. if inventory is limited, you have to manage that carefully. >> what you have seen is, during covid and two years later, what we have seen is the big guys are winning. why? target, walmart, costco, they have the power to lock up supply really early and squeeze out a lot of midtier guys. they are winning. just about everyone is complaining about inventory except for target and walmart.
target and walmart are saying they failed pretty good. they are getting stocks. some companies are getting ships to bring stuff in. it is a big guy winning, and smaller guys getting squeezed out. in certain sectors, like footwear, there is not enough to go around. >> what is interesting with walmart and target, we knew right in terms of the sales, but the margins do not like what they were seeing with the margins. >> target has had two years of increasing margins, while everyone else has been behind them a bit. there is a fear of costs. everyone is having to ship things, expedited to get on time. they are trying to push things to happen quicker in terms of delivery when we know that there is such a logjam out there. to me, that will play itself out. four quarters, six quarters whatever it is. we need to focus on increased store comparable sales that are up 20%. that is where the customer is going.
>> a quick question. we are seeing lockdown start to be reimposed in continental europe. tomorrow, it could be germany. i guess it could presume will he come at a worse time for retailers. they don't necessarily always get in the same sentence, but if we see lockdowns, how hard will that hit retailers. >> we all have a little bit of deja vu. christmas is around the corner and we are getting locked down again. germany is the biggest market in europe, so it is incredibly important. i think it is a risk. it is a short-term risk. hugo boss is 60% of sales in europe, and h&m, the top market. the pdh has real exposure to germany. so for a lot of these stocks, you can see volatility. if they are true lockdowns, you will see some inventory being pushed and marked down.
>> thank you so much. we appreciate it. retail advisor presidents. thank you so much. coming up, will he, or will he not reappoint jay powell? that is the question we keep asking and the one we want answered. resident item will announce his decision before the thanksgiving holiday. this is bloomberg. g.
guy: i am guy johnson alix steel. this is the european close on bloomberg markets. let's turn our attention to what is happening. an hour or so into u.s. trading, about two and half hours into u.s. trading. that's a better way looking at it. we have been on air for about two hours. at a half-hour. two and a half hours. i should just read what is in
front of me. save me. what is going on? >> i will save you. we will start with semi conductors because they are a mixed story. they are up half a percent, but you don't see more games because it is a mixed story under the hood. we will start with macron. a 7.6% rise. they were at the bloomberg new economy performance said that the chip world is easing but still persisting. it is getting better. another day of gains. as a lot to do with potentially nearing a $1 trillion market cap. this is key for nvidia about diversification. that is what implied materials dead. they are still dealing with supply chain countries -- crunches. but turner is dealing with the covid booster advisor for a vaccine. we are seeing the turn up or .1%. to the downside, you do have travel stops. when it comes airlines, cruise lines, the volatility plays not doing well. this is everything to do with austria going into lockdown and germany saying that is an option
on the table. alix: thank you so much. at the same time, investors are still awaiting president biden's decision on whether he will renominate jay powell. we have our national policy correspondent following the dragged out decision. now, it feels like mansion is weighing in on who he likes, and etc.. >> this is the third or fourth day of the four days, whether you count the weekend, and we are expecting to see the president to do something soon. he told us that. we have obtained pictures of the two he is going to nominate in the rose garden this afternoon. we will show you. that is peanut butter and jelly. these will not translate at all to diane london. the turkeys that could biden will pardon are not the new ventures. he does to. >> of the needed one. >> generally, how do you choose?
anyway, we know what the president is going to do. he is still keeping mom on who he is going to appoint. as alex said, it is joe manchin who is making had signs -- was making headlines say he will meet with low prayer -- lowell brainard. we are not sure who is in the lead at this point? >> i'm sorry to wonder who will make this call. will be the president or will it be senator manchin? it does sound as if it is going to be increasingly senator manchin and makes the call. >> i think elizabeth warren has already made her decision. >> she and her democrats, sheldon whitehouse and jeff merkley, they came out saying that powell has not done enough on climate change. they don't say what he should be doing. powell has said he will act to make sure the bank is making safe loans. it is not clear exactly what the
senate is going to say about either one of these, but perhaps the idea that brainard was leaked as a potential competitor to powell was a trial balloon to get these people to react. >> they certainly have. it has been a fascinating week. a long week, waiting for the final answer. to be over the next couple of days, we will get it. i appreciate the president's focus elsewhere, and maybe tomorrow he will have a birthday, so the beauty of next week would be nice. i am sure you will be keeping abreast of things over the weekend. thank you very much. bloomberg's mike mckee. what do we have next week? let's start with monday. that's ours with appropriate. zoom is up with his numbers. u.s. trade rep katherine tai will be in talks. on tuesday, manufacturing services and compass a pmi data
from the ics. also, earnings in optometry, gap and dell. >> on wednesday, a ton of economic data. jobless claims, gdp, new-home sales, plus he reports earnings since the first time the worker strike ended, and the reserve bank of new zealand makes his decision. on thursday, the markets are closed for thanksgiving, and on friday, they're close for a half day as well. that is going to be fun. that wraps it up for me and guy on television. coming up on balance of power with david westin, a doctor from the new york press materials ceo. we are headed over to radio and cable. we will talk more on lockdowns. this is bloomberg.
>> from bloomberg world headquarters to our television and radio audiences worldwide, welcome to balance of power. it is a big day in walls -- washington with the house passing its way of building back better with the redeployment of jay powell as fed chair. for a rundown of this very busy day, we turn to our washington correspondent who is at the white house. it is a tossup which where we start with this, but let's start with the fed. it has a lot more suspense than i thought it would. if anything, a heightened overnight. >> it certainly has heightened. we are still waiting for the president to make a decision. what we know is that it should become -- come before thanksgiving. senator joe manchin, who we know it's taken issue with transitory inflation, he had a meeting already with chair jay powell. he