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tv   Bloomberg Markets Asia  Bloomberg  November 21, 2021 9:00pm-11:00pm EST

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forecasts on the reopening of its vital tourism industry. david: we moved here across these markets. we did start off with risk off. still largely speaking. coming off the lows for some of these equity markets, which is a good thing. the dollar still based on what we are stealing -- what we are seeing across the fx market, a strong dollar story. if you measure over the last two weeks. we can talk more about this in couple of minutes. looking at a couple currencies off the back of what is happening in europe. new zealand and the bank of korea. looking at one part of the chinese equity market. a massive rally in property. just about every single stock. looking at about 20 here. three out of the 20 are still up. ever grand being one of them. everything is falling as we speak.
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this is one of our market themes. the other being what is happening in europe. rishaad: violence taking place in the netherlands. the second night. rotterdam being in focus here. clashes with the police in brussels. monday, seeing a national lockdown in fact. that has been sparking lots of crowds to line the streets of vienna. a debate in germany over to impose compulsory vaccinations. we do have u.k.'s vaccine booster program said to be extended into christmas. perhaps a little bit of light. saying adults should get a booster shot. it is that covid again at the center of things. david: who would have known? as these vaccinations rates -- that may put up a currency angle to that. the euro, a 16 month low against the dollar. the kiwi, we touched that couple
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hours ago. against a sterling, within one now of the post brexit lows. seeing some weakness coming through. the opposite side to the trade is when you talk about the yuan basket. we are talking about yuan strength today. had this foreign-exchange committee in china adding to what is becoming a slowly lengthening list here of pushback against what you're seeing on your screen. currency strength. to the yuan, this is the basket cared whether this is the tracker bloomberg or the official eakly one kid six year highs against its peers. rishaad: let's have a look at the other subject causing consternation and uncertainty. the fed chair, jay powell, does still remain the favorite. it is layla vena hard who has also been interviewed.
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somebody more dovish who could be the choice of president biden. one of the most important economic policy decisions of his presidency. should happen before thanksgiving. that is what we are being told. on top of that, more noises coming out of federal reserve of officials suggesting the whole bond buying process and how they taper it may need to quicken. are we being prepared for a move in that direction? that is the question. david: we have been notched. some of the soundbites and comments coming through late last we have nudged us in that direction. >> the rapid improvement in the labor market and the deteriorating data have post us toward more rapid removal in 2022. >> i'll be looking closely at the data we get between now and
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the december meeting. we may need to have a discussion about increasing the pace at which we are reducing our balance sheet. let's david: ring in mark with our mliv team. the -- david: let's bring in mark cranfield with our mliv team. an early taper, can i connect those two things? >> certainly. i think you would be looking at equities and bonds and the dollar at the forefront of any period of tapering. the important part of that is it would make people think fed rate hike would come much sooner than is currently priced into the dot plot. that is what this is all about is if they can get the bond tapering out of the way, in the early part of the second quarter
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next year, we could be looking at a rate hike in the middle of 2022, which was not people's expectations a couple weeks ago. they would not have been thinking the fed could raise rates that early. it will have an effect on what equities market -- equity markets and bond markets do. the dollar has been responding to the rise in short-term yields in the united states. we have the contrast between what the fed may be doing and what the ecb insists is a policy to remain super easy for a long time. you can see that playing out in the weakness of the euro. it is not just a one-sided thing. what the fed is doing and the other rates, the central bank, the ecb. playing off the difference in policy outlook between the two different central banks in your ending up with a weaker euro currency. you may get some volatility in u.s. equities in the short term
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if people think the fed can get behind one another to bring forward a rate hike. that is a bigger question for further down the road. rishaad: whether the short end of the curve should be responding but i want to move what is going on elsewhere. speculation being dampened down on china on the fx side of things. looking at the yuan as well. >> it is not that easy. there may be concerns it is very strong. it is very strong on the baskets at the moment. they may like to see at a little bit weaker. to some extent, it is out of their hands. china's trade position is so strong, it means there exports to the u.s. are buoyant. the flows of money coming back, we can see the monthly transaction, the conversion rate is still high. companies are still bringing their money back to settle into the yuan. there are still suggestions
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other companies are holding back, they are not converging a needy at lee. as soon as there was a weakness, they would want to convert. that would eliminate any chance of the yuan moving. the euro has fallen about 10% against the yuan this year. that weakness feeds into the yuan's strength. the euro triggers off the aussie, kiwi and other currencies. it is not just a question of the euro on its own. it is the g10 complex rate and the u.s. dollar. it goes into its back it -- into its basket. there is not much china can do about the weakness any other major currencies. they are having to deal with what they can. rishaad: mliv strategist mark cranfield. you can follow more of his musings on the terminal.
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there is commentary and analysis from bloomberg's expert editors. let's have a look at dealing with oil price pain. let's get that story and the rest of the story with vonnie quinn. vonnie: japan and the united states may make a joint announcement on the relief of oil reserves as soon as next week. the newspaper says the japanese government is considering tapping part of its excess returns. a move the biden also waiting period the prime minister reported on friday the government is reviewing measures to tackle high oil prices. a nationwide virus lockdown in austria goes into effect monday after a weekend of protests in several european countries over tougher covid restrictions. tens of thousands rallied peaceably in vienna after the government announced all adults must be vaccinated by february. on sunday, belgian police used
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water can to disperse thousands of protesters. china's competition watchdog has ordered companies including alibaba, tencent and baidu to pay three point $4 million in fines for antitrust violations. the regulations says the company must pay $78,000 for each of the breaches. the latest penalties are smaller than fines earlier this year. 2.8 million -- 20 billion for alibaba. japan has reportedly earmarked $6.8 million to bolster domestic chip making. according to the newspaper, funds will be used to strengthen domestic reduction, fund research and development, upgrade factories and reduce carbon emissions. the paper says the first project is likely to be tsmc's factory. global news, 24 hours a day, on
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air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i'm vonnie quinn. this is bloomberg. rishaad: still to come, oil under pressure. we have investors adding in emergency supply and rising covid cases across europe. let's have a look at the outlook for commodities markets. a bit later on with ing. david: coming up next, talking risk. a closer look for rising geopolitical tensions. the top ones for businesses we should be watching. controlled risk joins us with their 22 -- 2022 risk forecast. this was bloomberg. -- this is bloomberg. ♪
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rishaad: off to beijing with a news conference taking place with regards to the winter olympics. these upcoming winter olympics thing overshadowed by the chinese tennis player peng shuai who has taken part in a 30 minute video call with ioc officials. coming amid global alarm over her appearance at a youth tennis center in bruising. not convincing many people outside of china she has freedom to act. this is a briefing coming up on the winter olympics. david: of which i believe last week the u.s. president mentioned something they are considering at this point is a diplomatic boycott of the beijing other picks. -- of the olympics. the u.s. has shared intelligence
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with european allies, which shows this buildup of the russian military preparing for a large-scale push into ukraine. here we are again talking about this. rishaad: it is the ukraine on one side. intel coming through about russian troops gathering as well. let's not forget about what is going on with belarus and the migration issue. the thing is, where do we go with this further? what happens with a potential ukrainian invasion happening. u.s. officials, a bit of a detente. david: their opening the level at which they are able to comedic -- they are helping the level at which they're able to communicate. hopefully the lower the probability. rishaad: more communication means there is less of a chance -- means more of a chance people would push the wrong button. let's have a look at what we
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have in terms of global risk. we are joined by a global risk consultancy. let's discuss the findings with steve wilford. we can look into december. where do you think the biggest hotspot is going to be looking ahead? >> the biggest hotspot in my opinion for business is going to be the regulatory tsunami coming out of the back of the top 26 meeting. -- the cop 26 meeting. that is a slightly nebulous one but there is a real before and after moment in terms of the business risk of a business not getting in line fast enough with environment, social and governments issues. it is going to catch up with a lot of companies quickly so that is the biggest one to watch. david: that is reputational.
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at this point in time. >> it is multifaceted. it is predominately reputational. but it will be increasingly regulatory. politicians in glasgow have come back quite chastened. they're looking for quick wins and that is a political euphemism for pushing out their popularity problems out into the business sector. you are going to see companies under pressure to catch up with the climate change agenda. david: what is a company do apart from what they are -- what does a company do apart from what they are actively endeavoring as far as esg is concerned? >> i think my topline point would be companies should not just look at keeping slightly ahead of the bar?
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the bar is reputational he and from a legal regulatory perspective is changing quite quickly. you need to be planning to manage 2025 risks otherwise you are to get left behind. rishaad: absolutely. i'm also guessing asia is going to have to do more with regards to this. being somewhat behind in regards. how does this pinout in different parts of the world? -- how does this pan out in different parts of the world? >> it is one world. it was a global conference. there is a sense the dynamic behind this to get on board with the claimant emergency comes out of principally europe. asia is obviously the engine of globalization, which is still a thing. decoupling is a myth. you're going to see pressure coming down the supply chain quickly.
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it is going to impact us significantly in asia because we are slightly behind the curve here. we're going to have to catch up fast to avoid being caught out. rishaad: absolutely. let's have a look at the biggest one out there in terms of military and strategic issues. i'm talking taiwan. there has been a lot of saber rattling. where do we go with that? would you say a military conflict over taiwan is out of the question? >> it is not out of the question but it is not going to happen anytime soon. you mentioned detente a little bit earlier. the virtual conference between biden and xi was an effort to -- the state department likes to use the phrase design some guardrails around some of these issues. the u.s. agenda is around
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curbing weapons proliferation and huge strategic issues such as an invasion of taiwan, such as an expansion of chinese bases in the south china sea. that is firmly on the u.s. agenda and equally, china wants its own guardrails surrounding trade and access to crucial strategic technologies. david: very quickly here, terrorism is something we don't pay attention to every year but in what form do you think we should be looking at this in 2022 yucca >> -- 2022? >> they really provoked a lot of soul-searching around afghanistan producing a new surge of islamist terror
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activity. i think it is going to be quite inspiring for a lot of bedroom jihadists. if you look at asia again, most of the terrorism issues this region faces are quite contained within conflict zones, ethnic separatist conflict zones, southern thailand and so forth. we are not going to see a resurgence of the battle days of major coordinated bomb attacks and commercial centers that rattled investor sentiment. i don't think that is on the card for the world ahead. david: have a great week ahead. thank you. just ahead, we are talking the latest or what we know about chinese tennis player peng
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shuai telling the ioc she is safe but some doubt. this is bloomberg. ♪
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rishaad: you are back with bloomberg markets. the head of the ioc saying he held a 30 minute video call on sunday with the chinese tennis star peng shuai where she assured him she is safe. david:david: let's get the latest. it has captured the attention globally. let's bring in stephen engle. he is here with us. do we know the real story? > we simply do not know the real story. the real story has evolved to the point where we have seen videos on state media. they are going to great length to show she is ok.
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we have not heard from her directly. the ioc president did have that 30 minute call in their assessment is she appeared to be relaxed and is -- and has assured them that she is resting safely and fine at home and she wishes to be left to her privacy. there were two other videos that surfaced by the editor-in-chief of the state backed global times he says these two videos have come into my possession showing this is a dinner supposedly on saturday in beijing. the story has evolved to the point where many people in the world including the president of the women's tennis association is not sure if it is manufactured or not. a proof of life type of video. i have watched this video and i have listened to it. this man on the left is speaking
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in mandarin and he makes a point of saying today or tomorrow is the 20th of november. the woman on the far right says no, tomorrow is the 21st of november. it is clunky. i'm not saying it is true or not. i have no skin in this game but people are saying, let her speak. rishaad: how did we arrive at the state of affairs yucca give us a bit of background. we cannot look at this -- >> last month, she posted on her social media account a long letter describing a sexual relationship with the former number seven ranking member on the all powerful standing committee of the state council. of the most powerful chinese leaders of the last regime. these are untouchable individuals. this is why beijing -- it would
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be illegal for a standing committee member to have extra mac -- an extramarital affair and almost unheard of for somebody to come out in public on a social media platform to allege such an act. it has crated a firestorm and you can see the propaganda machine is working heavily to control this message especially ahead of the olympic games, the winter lipid games coming in february. this whole issue has captured the sporting world's attention and this could hang the olympics. david: stephen engle on all the latest. at least what we know. a brief look across the markets. looking at oil on the back of two bits of news. talking about the release of japan and the u.s.. japan mulling that relief but nothing decided yet. here's the official line.
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this is what is happening. the very bottom of the worst performing sector group this monday morning. we are down -- coming up close. this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> all companies, individuals and -- the most obvious example countries need to look at. rishaad: it is 9:29 in the evening on wall street. msci asia-pacific. about 1/10 of 1% down currently. energy companies leading the downdraft. three sectors moving to the upside. david: we are looking at property, which might add to some of the sectors, putting a
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floor underneath it. we are getting news in china that one of the property developers and if you remember last week, news over china allowing this financing option for property developers based on the report, it has been approved for the company. 800 million yuan. if it does continue to be the story narrative, this would be seen as positive. the stock down 3%. let's flip the board so we can have a look at the broader property space. in has been about a rally on friday. if you net everything friday and today, we are up largely. the bottom of the heap as far as the property counters are concerned. rishaad: more noises coming out of the federal reserve about the speed of the tapering program.
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it's get that story and that -- let's get that story and the rest of the -- vonnie: the fed is on course to consider a rapid drawdown of the bond buying program. several policymakers signaled last week faster tapirs might be on the table when the fomc meets december 14 and 15th. the plan announced this month is slow to qe on a steady pace. >> the rapid improvement in the labor market and the deteriorating inflation data have pushed me toward favoring ape faster pace of tapering and more rapid removal of accommodation in 2022. vonnie: china's foreign exchange committee is said to be urging banks to limit executive currency trading. sources say the organization overseen by the pboc is advising lenders to improve risk and report any abnormal transactions.
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we are told the proposal was sent to more than 50 chinese and overseas banks, which cover 90% of china's fx market. bloomberg sources say the u.s. has shared intelligence with european allies about a russian build up of artillery. european leaders have set up efforts to discourage it. police in the u.s. state of wisconsin says several people were killed when an suv drove into a christmas parade. more than 20 people were injured when the vehicle broke through barriers. police say a person of interest is in custody and investigations continue. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. on vonnie quinn.
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this is bloomberg. -- i'm vonnie quinn. this is bloomberg. david: from president xi jinping speaking at the 30th anniversary of the china asean partnership, talking about how china and southeast asia supporting the bigger role of asean in terms of regional and international affairs. rishaad: japan in the u.s. could be making a joint announcement on the release of oil reserves. we have energy reporter stephen sachin ski joining us. what is the government saying about this and when can we expect a potential announcement? there are quite a few legal loopholes. >> absolutely. what we are seeing is the united
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states has said they have gone to their allies, which include japan, korea and gone to china task for them to release strategic reserves. the u.s. is pushing for this. china has said they are preparing something. we are not sure the timing and how much they are going to be releasing into the market. we have japan over the weekend, the prime minister said they are considering the request from the united states. with that request, there are these legal barriers. just this morning, reporters asked the government again and they are still considering it. south korea echoing the same thing. you can also look at india. that is another one rumored to be joining the strategic relief. an announcement could be coming
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as soon as this week. in the u.s., we have the thanksgiving holiday. it is unlikely the u.s. will be making the announcement. we are expecting something in the next few days. david: i want to bring in your part of the equation. 30,000 new covid cases in germany. it is part of the broader conversation in terms of reopening and the recovery. is that what is pushing down against the outlook of oil prices? >> absolutely. when you look at the spr, that is going to have some impact. traders and analysts are closely monitoring the covid situation in europe and this is another winter where folks are going to be inside. covid could spread. there is this fear that as countries put measures forward, that will reduce people traveling. that will reduce demand for
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gasoline. that will bring down the price of oil going forward that is on the top of everyone's minds especially with the developments over the last few days. david: energy reporter. let's continue the conversation around commodities. during us now is the head of commodities strategy at ing. hope you are well. let's start with that. if we do get a release of strategic reserves, how long will we need it? just looking at next year, which we might get to a situation where we might not need oil and the deer. -- might not need oil next year. >> the global market tips back into surplus. we are expecting strong non-opec supply growth in the region of 2.6 million barrels a day. i think all of the market needs, all the u.s. wants is something
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for the short term. that is why we are looking at the potential spr release. that is why opec have been reluctant to give into u.s. demands to increase output more directly because they know what is around the corner. a review is the market shifts back to surplus next year. that those two prices are trending lower from current levels. david: in the high 70's whether that is west texas or brent. let's toss and natural gas. -- thomas in natural gas. do think most of the factors have been priced in echo >> for the upside, i think absolutely. to the downside, there are a few factors which could still way further on prices. a release announcement, if it is a coordinated announcement. if we do see further european
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countries tightening restrictions, if we see that spreading to germany and other european countries, that is going to have a head on sentiment. on the supply side come something we should not -- supply side, something we should not forget about as iranian nuclear talks will resume. a review is -- our view is we finished 2021 -- rishaad: returning to guess, we have been looking at -- the gas, we have been looking at these troop movements around the u.k. on the russian side. how would any potential invasion of the ukraine effect gas prices given the whole supply network, supply pipelines?
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and also in europe having to wade this up in terms of do we buy the natural gas from russia? >> the ukraine is a key transit point for russian gas into your. -- into europe. any sort of invasion will certainly be constructive for prices. if we look longer-term, our view is it is really russian gas, which is going to dictate price action over the coming months. nord stream 2 was expected to ramp up and improve the supply situation. that is not happening anytime soon. nord stream 2 is unlikely to come online this winter. our expectation is european gas prices are likely to remain volatile and elevated over the
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winter. given the growth in lng trade, that has ramifications for the asian lng market as well. rishaad: moving now to what is happening with the metal side of things and we keep talking about what is happening in china. it has a direct correlation. give us a sense of where you think various components go. >> construction is a key demand point. if you look at steel rebar prices in china, they have come under significant pressure in recent months. given the slowdown we have seen in construction in china and again, a free look at iron ore, that has come under significant pressure. part of that will reflect to the production cuts they have in place within china to certain --
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within china. going into 2022 come our view is that the supply and demand balances for most metals will loosen up and that does suggest we see some downside in the majority of metal prices going into 2022. the one exception is aluminum. we see some structural deficits coming through for the aluminum markets. that does suggest prices should continue to trend higher. david: that is not just priced. what is your target for prices of aluminum? >> we are targeting almost an average of three dollars a ton. rishaad: good stuff. coming up, we have a look at what is going on in thailand. the government issuing an upbeat economic forecast the tourism
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industry is reopening after covid cases have been falling. details are coming up. this is bloomberg. ♪
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david: let's have a look at southeast asian markets.
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from vietnam to manila. mixed. with the exception of vietnam, which is a little bit more upside. that is being generous on my part. in indonesia, up and running by about 43 minutes. covering roughly speaking. consensus rating. one analyst. it is a full 100% marked on the stock. just a mark rishaad:. let's have a look at other key stories we are watching. a political party associated with the malaysian premier winning a state poll. looking also at singapore. fewer covid-19 cages overall and
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community infections below 2000 for the fourth straight ap the company moving to relax summit restrictions. we have traded data seeing exports on the way up. 17.4% year on year. that is a better-than-expected read than the 15.5% increase for october. thailand in focused with those numbers. in focus for other reasons as well. rishaad: you get exports up and tourists. makes sense the government looking to raise its growth forecast for this and next year. the economy's prospects rising. with the reopening of a crucial part of the economy that is tourism. let's bring in from bangkok, the story. i believe there is a revised forecast. what is the forecast? >> the finance minister came out this weekend and said he expects
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the economy to expand as much 22% to -- as much as 1.2%. and is suspicious of looser restrictions and tours in reopening from november 21, which allowed visitors from more than 60 countries to arrive in thailand without having to quarantine. rishaad: it is of vital peer the tourism industry, give us a sense of how important it is for the economy. and what has it been like living in bangkok, which was the most visited city in the world a few years ago and what has it been like with foreigners not coming in? >> tourism is very important for thailand's economy. it has made up about 1/5 of thailand's economy before the pandemic. in 2019, we received about 40 million visitors coming to thailand. ever since the pandemic and the
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lockdown, all of that has disappeared. exports have been the only bright spot in the economy. after reopening, there is a lot of optimism in the tourism sector and the governments as well. since the reopening, nearly 100,000 visitors have arrived in thailand. it is not as much we would guess before the pandemic but the government are saying this is the first big step toward a bigger reopening next year. the countrywide more countries to of the list of quarantine free travel in the coming months. david: rishaad: we rishaad: get the growth forecast and that is -- we get the growth forecast. we see that growth forecast. indonesia coming up with its latest forecast. they're going to get 4% growth this year and 5.2% next year.
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i'm not sure if that is a decrease or an increase from therefore forecast but that is what they are saying. the u.s. set a taiwan dialogue. these are things we are monitoring. david: the forecast of 4%. 3.5%. a little bit higher than what economists think. roughly what economists think for indonesia. rishaad: always saying about their own forecast. we have all the days top supply chain news. david's cup of coffee is going to get even more expensive. this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> we are tracking the fallout of the global supply chain crunch. japan's government is reportedly planning to earmarks 6.8 billion to bolster domestic chipmaking in an extra budget for the current financial year. the first of the projects is the tsmc factory. samsung will announce a location
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of its new chip plant in the u.s. this week. samsung reportedly met with u.s. officials to discuss ways to resolve the chip crunch as well as incentives on offer if it builds an american plant. turning to coffee, costs are expected to stay high as shipping woes linger. shipments from brazil, which normally take a month, are taking as long as 100 days amidst tight supplies. brazil produces around 40% of the global coffee supply. bloomberg terminal users can read more about these stories in our newsletter supply lines and that is on and i trade nl. rishaad: let's continue the conversation david: -- let's continue the conversation. u.s. labor secretary marty walsh is planning to discuss these supply chain issues at the nation's biggest ports. he spoke with david westin. >> we have all the knowledge
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inflation israel and we are moving toward working on that appeared when where we are doing on that in this bill is by increasing people's ability to get into better paying jobs. economists have said this will help us reduce inflation as we move forward. there is more will have to do as well. the supply chain is a big issue. we have to make sure on the west coast we use the supply chain. -- we ease the supply chain. turning the ports to 24/7. i'm going to los angeles in couple weeks to talk to some trucking companies and the ports about how we continue to stay on top of that. , 60% of our products are coming into the port of l.a.. we need to make sure that porter is working properly. > do we want wages to catch up with the prices? we don't want real wages to go down.
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if we catch the wages up, won't that feed the beast of inflation? >> when it comes to inflation, it is important for us -- under they are connected but i want to separate them to do to many americans in this country are not earning good wages. too many americans don't have a chance to get into the middle class. i think the president's plan of build back better and what he has said since he has been a candidate is to create a pathway into the middle class or the more people we can create that pathway for in marginalized communities that have been left behind for so long, so many people have not had a chance to gets the middle class and experience the american dream. we need to do more. these two bills will help us do that. as far as inflation, we will have the ability to bring some costs down. if you have more supply, i say that is a recipe for success. >> one of the priorities of
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president biden is to improve organized labor. we are seeing perhaps some of the revocations with the john deere contract. can you buttress, enforce, strengthen organized labor without feeding inflation? >> i have said this more than one time. this is the most prolabor, prounion administrations in the history of the country. organized labor has a role to play. they have to go out whether it is a current contract or a new contract to let people know we can work together with businesses. some of the disputes we are seeing around the country, some of it is over wages and health care and pensions.
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some of it is over working conditions. the concerns people have in this country generally, their concern is making sure they are going into a safe working environment. we are still living in pandemic time. some of these contracts are about working conditions, which is something we have not seen in quite a bit. >> what can the department do about it? >> there is a tale of two stories. we are not seeing the inflation rate we would like to see. there are millions of jobs that are open. on the next breath, we have an unemployment rate of 4.6%. we have had 5.6 billion jobs added to the economy. it is a faster recovery than we predicted. we have to continue to move forward one step at a time. rishaad: the u.s. secretary of labor, marty walsh, speaking
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with david westin. david: a brief look at these markets. equity still on offer. treasuries down. commodities are mixed. plenty more ahead. this is bloomberg. ♪
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rishaad: this is bloomberg markets. let's have a look at our top stories. a cautious mood on the market. concerns about faster federal reserve tightening and europe's virus resurgence. new signs of beijing's discomfort with the yuan's rapid rise.
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plus, india's prime minister makes the biggest policy reversal since he took office scrapping controversial farm laws. let's have a look at price action. this is where bond markets are currently. taking a look at what has been happening with yields creeping up and bond prices going to the downside. the dollar edging up. speculation about the fed scaling down bond purchases faster than anticipated. quickening inflation, which is the main worry. don't forget there is going to be a lot of auctions coming up. we have a cycle of 2, 5 and seven year notes. that is a look at the regional markets. singapore is up 3/10 of 1%. that is in tandem with what is going on with the u.s. futures. the pound continuing to be weak.
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the euro trading on 83 pence -- against its european counterpart. the yen a tad weaker. some news breaking. a company jumping as much as 11% on a merger plan. up just about 10%. a lot of economic data due out this week. tuesday bringing you key pmi news. supply chain constraints. hawkish policymakers back in the frame in asia with the reserve bank of new zealand poised to hike interest rates. let's not forget we have president joe biden expected to
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address. jerome powell remaining the adding favorite. odds are for a more dovish option. let's not -- that is not the only question. how and when the fed will wind down asset purchases is top of mind for many market participants. >> deteriorating inflation data have pushed me toward favoring a faster pace of tapering and more rapid removal of accommodation in 2022. i will be looking closely at the data we get between now and the december meeting. it may well be appropriate to have a discussion about increasing the pace at which we are reducing our balance sheet. rishaad: let's get straight to
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the head of investment strategy at bank of singapore. where are you in this debate? >> december fomc is light in terms of potentially tapering pure that represents a hawkish shift. markets will be very jittery going into the events. second, going into the december fomc meeting. rishaad: let's get to the bond purchasing program in more detail and how this may differ at all if we get a change in the fed.
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jerome powell is seen as the favorite. reynard could be a surprise pick. what could happen? >> there lies the 50-50 investors are facing. reynard is going to represent a dovish shift. if that happens, you could see treasury yields being supported. historically, new fed shares tend to be -- by markets. on the other hand, we discussed the rash of a hawkish -- the risk of a hawkish shift. this is a lot for markets to take right now.
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rishaad: as it surprised you also given some of these inflation forecasts, which are looking quite scary. jason was suggesting we could get a cpi rate of 7% in december. what is your take on this because it does not seeing the short end was reacting as much as one would have thought? >> seven is a little high versus my estimates but i think over the near term, it is clear. when you break it down and that is key, most of these pressures are linked to the supply chain bottleneck disruptions. perhaps the participation in the u.s. labor rate so far. a strong case is to be made we will see inflation pressures weighing toward the 2% level. look at the risk reward of the fed's positions. if they turn a to early and --
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turn hawkish to early, it is going to put them in an awkward position. try to alleviate any negative impact. the best case is the fed will likely stay on their path. rishaad: on the other hand, we have europe dealing with a different set of issues. don't forget the surge in covid cases. >> if you look at a seven day moving average of cases, higher than what we saw in the peak of november last year. this is -- this could affect the growth outlook, which is a key component of the market so far.
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rishaad: stick around. we are going to talk about the trials and tribulations with the chinese economy. we have this other news coming through. something being mold about. japan preparing to release oil reserves into the market. we have had the chief cabinet secretary saying earlier they are considering releasing the oil reserves. there are several legal issues they have to surmount to be able to do so. they're trying to do this in tandem with the unit it states to bring down the oil price. brent crude, 6/10 of 1% down. wti trading 75 books. things along, we have a developing story in the united states. let's get to the first word news. vonnie: the u.s. state of
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wisconsin, several people were killed when an suv drove into a christmas parade. more than 20 people were injured when the vehicle broke through barriers. police say a person of interest is in custody and investigations continue. nationwide virus lockdown in austria goes into effect monday. protests in several european countries over covid restrictions. tens of thousands rally peacefully in vienna as the government announced all austrian adults must be vaccinated by monday. dutch police arrested dozens after clashes there. the economy is said to expand as much as 1.2% this year exceeding an earlier forecast of 1%. thailand began reopening this month to vaccinated visitors.
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more than half the nation's fully inoculated. last week's average daily infection rate went to 6.5 thousand. no decision has been made yet. the chief cabinet secretary says the country's reserves hold enough oil for 242 days. over the weekend, a newspaper reported japan and the u.s. could make an announcement as soon as this week. the u.s.'s shared intelligence with european allies. a large-scale push into ukraine. we were told information backs off u.s. concerns about the intentions of vladimir putin. european leaders have stepped up diplomatic efforts to deter an incursion while the kremlin denies any aggressive intention. global news, 24 hours a day, on
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air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i'm vonnie quinn. this is bloomberg. rishaad: penalties and empty promises. we investigate a claim that one lender is still helping to hide from the irs. india's farmers winning favor as narendra modi removes a contentious law. this is bloomberg. ♪
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rishaad: you are back with bloomberg markets. an organization has been urging
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banks to limit speculative foreign exchange trading after the yuan climbed to a six year high. let's ring in tonya. to me what is going on here post that fixed? tell us if that changes the dynamic. >> 21 pips higher than the analyst survey. it generally means the authorities are uncomfortable with where the yuan is trading right now. the report you mentioned was according to people familiar with the matter. that organization is guided by the central bank. the best way to put it is it is a mild signal they are uncomfortable with the speculation. they're telling lenders to manage their foreign exchange risk to track their prompt trading desks. all of this is to ensure market stability. they don't want anyone way to push the yuan stronger. the wider story as it will hurt
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exports, which is a big reason . rishaad: we are talking about the trade at levels we have not seen since 2015. >> last week, we saw a bloomberg tracker reach 102, which is close to the level in 2015 when they devalued the yuan. the reason why the basket has been so strong this year is because the -- big waits in yuan the basket is the korean yuan and the euro. rishaad: no surprise on the lpr. 19 months. we have owned markets rally. -- we have bond markets rallying. >> bone markets have rallied most in two weeks it a lot of it has to do with the pboc paper that came out friday.
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it was an implementation report. what is interesting as they have dropped a lot of language around certain parts of the monetary policy. a lot of economists see this as paving the way. as a shift in turn. one economist had previously say cuts were less likely look coming in. he is saying they are more likely coming into the new year. rishaad: thank you very much and indeed. the pboc signaling possibly easing measures to aid the economy's recovery. i policy report removing some key phrases she was referring to including sticking with normal policy. suggesting a shift in the central bank's dance. eli lilly is head of investors strategy at the bank of singapore. give us a look at how you read
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that. >> rates will be easing. likely have seen importance from here. they are comfortable with in in terms of monetary policy. we will see the fed hiking from here. they want to ease from here. as an investor, is important to know we are not going to see the major policies that we have seen in the past. this will be very targeted. this will be very calibrated. we don't think it is likely they will drop policy rates anytime soon. instead, they will focus on providing liquidity to the factors they are focusing on. property, rate industries.
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rishaad: a lot of people said there should be a rrr cut by years end. many people have been predicting these since we saw the evergrande blowup take place. will they do that or is it something they are looking at being too blunt an instrument and they need something more strategic? >> i think at this point, they are likely a holding their reserves. i don't see a rrr for the remainder of this year. i think as a priority they are keeping the long term goals, the gains they have made in curbing the acceptance average. they are quite comfortable with the rate of growth going forward.
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rishaad: what sense are you getting from corporate reports and some of the market action of the state of the chinese economy and give us a sense as to whether you would be an investor from equity or fixed income perspective. >> on a broad market level, downside risk on change. growth continues to be fairly healthy. on the other hand, i think the headwinds we have seen for the economy in terms of -- more disappointing than expected credit growth. these sectors are the medium-term growth outlooks. i would say instead of being wrong, this is a --
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these have done fairly well for some time should rishaad: and then you look at things like that, the ppi read, which his historically the highest -- which is a stark with the highest we have seen in decade. does that feed into cpi? levels being elevated as they are. what does it actually mean? >> i think the ppi -- early speaks to the challenges the economy is facing. china is sticking to its carbon emissions commitment especially as we go and the olympics next year. -- as we go into the olympics next year. that is going to be a headwind
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to the economy. which is why i do think investors should refrain from taking a position in the chinese markets and focus on a few sectors. there are priorities and a terms of the government receiving support and beneficiaries of the middle class. rishaad: very quickly, how deep is the slowdown in china? >> i think we are likely to see 100 to 200 basis point dip in gdp growth next year versus this year. a lot of it will depend on the amount of easing we see next year. i am optimistic on the long-term
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growth of china's outlook. i will be looking to add from here. rishaad: always a pleasure. thank you for joining us. do not miss a big interview we have coming for you tomorrow. we're going to be discussing inflation, the fed's bond buying timeline. all with the atlanta fed president. this is bloomberg. ♪
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rishaad: this is bloomberg markets. let's have a look at some of the latest business flash headlines as we join vonnie quinn. vonnie: telecom providers have agreed to a merger. the two signed a nonbinding
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agreement to further study combining their telecoms businesses. as part of the deal, shareholders will receive more than two shares for every one they hold. total access holders will get over 24 shares for each one they hold. activision blizzard ceo has told senior managers he would consider leaving if he has unable to fix -- if he is unable to fix the company's culture problems. he left open the possibility of stepping down. activision blizzard is facing lawsuits and investigations over claims its frat house culture makes it a toxic place for women to vote. dashed for women to work. -- for women to work. aramco is in line for producing a 20% stake in reliance chemical cells. aramco says it will keep looking
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for potential -- following moore delivery delays are the softbank fact -- softbank bank -- deliveries have been delayed from their october targets. test rides are only open to those who have purchased or reserved the s1 and s1 pro scooters. that is your latest headline. rishaad: having a look at changes to the hang seng index. china resources. also getting a boost. about 2%. to start tracking industry giants.
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could shift liquidity away. one of them, getting an asset-backed security plan approved here. let's have a look at some of these technology companies in the fray because we mentioned jd. alibaba and tencent in the mix. slapping finds on alibaba and tencent over past deals that violated the anti-monopoly laws. this was announced by the state administration. about $78,000 for each of those companies involved. overall chinese markets. moving generally to the upside as we had toured the lunch break.
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-- head toward the lunch break. perhaps down to seeing signs of easing as the central bank in pboc negotiated toward
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vonnie: it is 11:29 a.m. in hong kong and beijing, 1029 p.m. in new york. i am vonnie quinn. japan is planning to release some of the strategic oil reserves at the request of the u.s. the report came shortly after the transport secretary said the government was considering tapping crude stockpiles although he said no decision had yet been made. over the weekend, it was reported that japan and the u.s. could make a joint announcement on oil reserves, as soon as this week. the federal reserve looks on
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course to consider more rapid drawdown of its massive bond buying program as inflation pressures linger. several policy makers signaled a tapered might be on the table when the fomc meets on december 14 and 15. they are on track to finish the process of qe in may 20 22. >> the rapid recruitment of the liver market have pushed me towards a faster pace of tapering and more rapid removal of accommodation in 2022. vonnie: a chinese competition watchdog has ordered companies including alibaba, tencent, and baidu to pay 3.4 million dollars in fines for antitrust violations. the companies must pay $78,000 for each of 43 breaches. the latest penalties are much smarter than the fines handed out earlier this year.
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japan is reportedly set to earmarked $6.8 billion to boost domestic chipmaking in the budget for the next year. the funds will be used to strengthen domestic production, found research and development, upgrade factories and reduce carbon emissions. the first project is likely to be tsmc's factory. the international olympic committee chief says he held a 13 minute video call on sunday with the chinese tennis tie peng shuai -- chinese tennis star peng shuai, in which she assured him she was safe. she said she said she wanted her privacy respected. she disappeared from public view earlier this month after alleging sexual assault waveform chinese vice premier. photos and videos released over the weekend by chinese state media failed to quell worries about her. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake,
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powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am vonnie quinn. this is bloomberg. rishaad: let's quickly check in with the markets. japan just coming back. just seeing the nikkei, setting off the lows of the day, about 1.1% down. we have a lot of market participants concerned about a quicker withdrawal of federal reserve stimulus, i.e. tapering. the nikkei is on its flattest on the pandemic. we also have the pboc very much in the frame, with possible steps to ease policy and support a slowing economy. let's not forget, concerns about european covid curbs. we have rioting in dutch cities, police dampening down riots. also in vienna and belgium.
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protests against what is happening with mass inoculation, if you like -- immunization, i should say, to be ordained as far as that goes. that is pushing austria towards a lockdown and spurring germany onto further carbs. let's talk about more on this -- also spurring germany onto further curbs. this territory bids to resume quarantine-free travel with the chinese mainland, hong kong. our correspondent is with us. what are they doing? they surely must know what the situation is. we are not allowed to come back because of the quarantine instituted. >> at this point they are kicking the tires of how hong kong has set up its covid control measures. they are looking at the quarantine hotels, looking at the actual processes used as people are coming into the country, making sure there aren't any cracks or leaks where we could get an outbreak in hong
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kong. that is what they are concerned about, making sure that is all nailed down before they even give an inch and allowing people to come into the mainland from hong kong. rishaad: and let's not even talk about the stricter measures. let's get to europe now. i mentioned the protests, different curbs coming in. again the delta variant is at the moment on the rise? michelle: it is on the rise in europe, but what is most significant is we are seeing increasing deaths. we are seeing increasing cases across the world as we go into the winter months in the northern hemisphere, what we would have expected. with the implication for europe, when we are seeing actually severe cases and deaths on the rise in people and vaccinated primarily. so what we need to do is -- what the governments need to do to protect their people is to get the unvaccinated protected. it is very difficult to do that, because at this point, with most
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places, certainly in the western world that have been vaccinating for the last 6-8 months, people have had the opportunity to get the shot. it is a matter of changing hearts and minds. that is not an easy thing to do. now they are giving shot mandates, and it is not going well in some groups. rishaad: anthony fauci also getting a booster. he is a bit divided on this, isn't he? will it help control the pandemic? do we have to have booster shots 3, 4 of them? i don't know? michelle: it is likely that we will be seeing them sometime in the future. it comes back to europe as well. vaccination protects you as an individual. we do know that the protection weans over time, so you need a booster to protect you. but if we will try to protect the world in your community, you need to get people unvaccinated their first dose. so in places like europe, they
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are trying to get the first dose into people because they want to protect everybody. in the u.s., they are easing up, saying everybody, we will make boosters available if you are worried about yourself, get that third shot. if you will not do it, then you are basically on your own at this point. you might be facing bad infection and it could be a bad one. rishaad: vietnam just came out with a headline, it is expected to fully vaccinate all adults this year. that is quite a -- michelle: we are seeing some places in the world getting to those incredibly high numbers. you can see it across many parts of asia in fact. most significantly in some of these smaller islands where we are seeing higher rates. of course, that is also in adults. rishaad: they said all adults, obviously, they cannot do children. david: exactly -- michelle: exactly.
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once you get to that level, it depends what the vaccine you are giving and what protection you will get from the vaccines you will see the serious diseases then deaths dropping as well. rishaad: michelle cortez, senior medical reporter for bloomberg. we have got a win for india's farmers as narendra modi reverses a contentious law. we will discuss the details of that and what is at stake with vijoo krishnan . this is bloomberg. ♪
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rishaad: a look at mumbai. there is just about six minutes before we get to the trading day underway in the indian financial capital. nifty futures contract suggesting we are seeing gains, alongside many parts of this where we have seen a turnaround. let's look at what investors will be watching for. we have the u.s. trade representative katherine tai in india for trade talks. also, a parliamentary panel for technology could adopt personal data protection in the meeting. and india will start covid-19
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exports to the kovacs vaccine sharing body, all that according to a report in the economic times -- exports to the covax vaccine sharing body, all that according to a report in economic times. this legislation prompted angry street protests i farmers in the past year, this coming ahead of key provincial polls where farmers are inferential as a voting bloc. let's get to asia government reporter. a change of heart here. it occurred suddenly. repealed. tell us. >> yes. that's right. as you just said, india has a crucial elections next year. most of the farmers who were standing outside new delhi protesting for most of the year now are for mostly from
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this -- these states. november 26, the objects would have been bad because of the election. not to mention there were some voter surveys that showed the anger could affect modi's party in the state election. so this is a good thing for modi decision to repeal the law. rishaad: what happens to the reformed clients? it was one of the central banks of his economic program. agriculture is the country's biggest employer, after all. so what gives in the future? archana: yes, this will be a big blow. one very senior analyst we spoke to said very rightly, political parties will get the wrong message that big, political, influential voter blocs are best untouched.
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it will be a blow to the reform process. it will slow it down. india's farm sector is unfortunately having growing pains, it is lagging overall economic growth. 60% of indians rely on the rural sector. this will push back reforms for the agriculture sector. rishaad: thank you very much indeed, i will asia government reporter, archana chaudhary. let's get with vijoo krishnan, jane secretary of all india kisan sabha, a national organization that represents farmers in india. thank you for joining us. quite a surprise. what happened? ? when did you pick yourself up off the floor? why do you think he did it? vijoo: it has been an unprecedented, united movement
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that has been going on in india since june of 2020. since 26 of november 2020, we have had thousands of thousands of farmers with their families, sitting at the borders of delhi. more than 700 farmers have lost their lives and become martyrs in this struggle and naturally, it has also had political repercussions for the ruling party. an organization of farmers, the united front of farmers, have had a campaign in the states that went to election recently and where the ruling party surfer reversals. -- where the ruling party suffered reversals. so this has been a real local
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setback for narendra modi and his government. it is an historic victory for the farmers of our country. it is a beacon of light in dark times not just for farmers and workers in india, but surely for all who are fighting against the new liberal economic policies. rishaad: so you are saying politics is behind this. doesn't necessarily mean that farmers will now be voting for the bjp in the upcoming elections? do they trust this administration in the future not to try and reimpose these laws? vijoo: there is a big trust deficit. that is the reason why although the prime minister of the country has made this announcement, the farmers have said the struggle will continue. it is going to continue until the parliamentary acts are repealed. it will also continue until the
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farmers' produce is guaranteed a price of at least 50% more than the cost of production. so this is going to be a long, drawn out struggle, as far as the farmers of india are concerned. rishaad: will you know remain neutral and perhaps refrain from campaigning against the bjp in the elections? vijoo: not at all. it is this government which has led to great suffering for the farmers in our country in recent times. . more than 700 of our comrades have become martyrs. the prime minister does not have a word of solace for their families. these policies which have been implemented in our country from 1991 and onwards by different leaders have led to a crisis
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where more than 400,000 farmers have been forced to commit suicide. this is just the tape of the iceberg. it is bigger numbers, because usually the women, the landless and tenant cultivators don't feature. even during the pandemic period, in a day, if the earning of the -- the average earning of a farmer from agriculture, that is cultivation of crops, is only 27 rupees. this is according to government figures. agriculture -- that government have opened the gate for the regulated -- four irregulated industry, big increase in prices for agriculture but not increasing the prices for the farmers'
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aspects of this and how the protests could continue. what is the next move for the farmers looking at this question mark what about the electricity law they are demanding a repeal of? and are you going to see a march of detractors in january? will you still go ahead with that, for instance? vijoo: as we are talking now, today, there is a big gathering of the farmers and workers. it is in a northern state going to elections shortly. surely, the united front of farmers have given the call for marching to the parliament on the 29th. the nature of that march the parliament shortly will be discussed, depending on the manner in which the government is going to come up with its
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positions. because if you look at this present announcement, it is a unilateral announcement by the prime minister without any discussion either with his own cabinet or even with the farmers organizations. i think the government should first call the farmers for talks and discuss all the issues that should be placed on the table, and the farmers' interests should be protected. that is very important. rishaad: very quickly, there were elements of this legislation which were welcomed by some bodies. all the legislation, shouldn't all be scrapped, or do you think there should be reforms that should be instituted in some of the legislation put into the house? vijoo: no.
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we want the total repeal of these three acts. it has come without the consultation of any farmers' organizations, or with state governments. according to our constitution, in the federalist system, agriculture comes under the state government. there has been absolutely no consultation with the state governments. so i think all three acts have to be repealed and an alternative should come up, with a wide consultation with all stakeholders. unfortunately, this has been corporate-driven, it has been the corporate cronies of the government who scripted these acts in line with the dictates of the wto. the monetary organization for long has been putting pressure on india to withdraw from public steak holding, to cut down its -- public stock holding and to cut down its subsidies to
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farmers. rishaad: thank you so much for joining us, vijoo krishnan, joined sec. of the all india kisan sabha. let's check quickly with indian markets that have been trading for about five minutes. this company having a rough time of it, down at the moment by 7%, paytm, taking its last three day losses to 31%. this digital payments start up has been closely-watched after the stock plunged on its debut thursday following the record initial public offering. this sparked criticism for the company and investment bankers that it pushed too hard in the offering. there we go. on the way down. paytm's parent company is also down 6.1%. reliance as well, reliance
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industries is just feeling at the moment after saying that it and saudi aramco are reevaluating a plan that tied it up, the company being weighted down by that as well. it's have a look at what is going on now at bharti. at 5%. ok. a lot more on the way. we will look at the latest regional market action. this is bloomberg. ♪
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rishaad: after a challenging year, the chief executive for this billion in futures company says she is expecting better prospects for thailand's good market. i talked to her about how the family business is evolving. >> last year, there was a lot of selling in the market, which is on the opposite way to the world market. that's because maybe last year, people in thailand wanted to use cash for our daily. that is why there is a lot of exported gold last year. but this year there is more importing of gold bars because right now the situation is much better and because of that gold prices increasing. there is more demand for investing and saving here in
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thailand. for thai people, when we have the money, will keep in gold 10% to 20%. gold is something that is liquid and tangible. even the poor and the bridge, they all keep gold as an investment asset. rishaad: how do you see that market evolving? >> in thailand, the overall gold bar price in thailand is increasing, not coming down. but even when we see the gold price, there is a drop in the price, but the outlook, we think it might come down a little bit, but overall, we still believe in gold long-term. we have the pressure in the short term for reducing quantitative easing. long-term, we still have to focus on the u.s. deficit
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number, which, that would make the gold price go up in the long run. rishaad: you mentioned that gold is tangible. of course, we have got cryptocurrencies here. how is the involution of crypto affecting what you do? >> in the crypto market, there is a high number of u.s. demand increasing. we seek a relation between the price of cryptocurrency and old price -- we see a relation between the price of crypto and gold prices. . we can see movement of the asset. but because gold is still gold, it is still tangible, there is still some growth. there is still a larger group of people that still believe in this asset because it is tangible. and it is very easy to liquidate, buy and sell. so the gold market is tied to the crypto market. rishaad: you are chief operating
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office of this company that were set up by your parents. how is your relationship with them? >> we still work together as a family. and then we extend into a group like we have on ylg thailand that we import gold bars and sell to the wholesalers, and also investors, and also we have ylg singapore which sells mostly to wholesalers in other countries in asia. also, we have y>lg futures -- ylg futures that sells products on the thailand exchange. in the whole family, we separate , and we decide who is responsible for each business part. but overall, we still work together as a family? rishaad: ylg bullion and futures
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ceo there. a quick check of the markets as we go to the hong kong break. the hang seng is just off the lows of the day but still on the downside. the clear winner, the kospi, after that export read, which was way ahead of expectations. ♪
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>> this is bloomberg daybreak: americas. our top stories. protests in europe as new lockdown measures come into force amid raising covid cases. in the u.s., anthony fauci once again urges people to get booster shots. dubai is benefiting as people escape europe for better weather and looser restrictions. we look at how the economy here is rebounding faster than expected.


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