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tv   Bloomberg Daybreak Europe  Bloomberg  November 29, 2021 1:00am-2:00am EST

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manus: good morning from our middle east headquarters in dubai. i'm manus cranny with dani burger in london. this is daybreak europe. not taking chances, more countries restrict travel as omicron cases spring up around the world. the who urges caution, saying more time is needed to gauge the threat. relative calm.
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oil rebounds. treasury yields and futures rise, all on the hopes a new variant causes only mild symptoms. plus, nissan unveils an $18 billion plan to electrify its fleet. we speak to the automaker's ceo at 6:30 london time. welcome back, dani burger, before the rules change. we are looking at risk and reassessing the demolition of risk on on product. this is -- on product. this is what he said -- on friday. this is what he said. the data that we have so far, dani, on omicron is mild to moderate symptoms so far. if this turns out to be true, it will be bullish and not bearish for markets. welcome back. dani: good to be back. we made it back in the nick of time. the question being asked for these markets is that selloff on friday, was act first, ask
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questions later. and does that represent the ultimate black friday shopping deal? we're still about 2.2% off an all-time high on equity markets, so perhaps there does need to be some questioning about, his everything all clear for these markets? of course, the virus, the variant a big question mark that will continue to loom over. manus: the volatility was dem strip lehigh -- demonstrably higher relative to the equity market. but it take me back to singapore two weeks ago. he had never seen greed like this in 40 years in his career. i said it yesterday. it was the moment greed met fear, and greed temporarily flopped. dani: yeah, that is such an excellent point, manus. and you know i love the one create -- wonkery of the volatility market. before friday, it had been incredibly cheap to buy puts.
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everyone was betting on the upside. perhaps some degree what we saw yesterday, was the rush into put options. you have a different type of grape -- greek letter. you have options leaders having to sell in the markets. a lot of wonkery to say yes, we were in a very greedy market, which put into fear, as you say. manus: absolutely. by bounceback on equities this morning. dani: yes, definitely. look, we are seeing weakness in the asia session. let's dig into these markets. we're seeing weakness, but nothing like we have seen in friday's session in the u.s. we're down about .8%. some of the losses in asia have been moderate, moderating throughout the morning. compare that to the s&p 500 futures, up .7%. this is the trend we see throughout markets. it's a little bit of a re-think now that we have lines coming in, perhaps omicron might be more mild than originally feared.
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we also have the 10 year yields bouncing back five basis points at 1.52%. and manus, crude roaring back. manus: yep, and that's in the week that opec-plus will gather later in the week. let's turn our attended -- attention to the omicron variant. the headline is from france, eight cases detected according to the house ministry. let's just take a listen for a moment for the world's leaders, their take. >> i've decided that we're going to be cautious, make sure there's no travel to and from south africa and six other countries in that region. >> there is no scientific justification whatsoever for keeping these restrictions in place. >> it does appear that omicron spreads very rapidly and can be spread between people who are
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double vaccinated. there is also a very extensive mutation. >> the new variant is concerned. they moved from being a variant of concern in the space of 24 hours. >> the objective of what we're doing tonight is to keep that vision strong. >> we call upon these countries that have imposed travel bans on our country and our other southern african sister countries to immediately and urgently revert their decision. manus: let's get to our senior medical reporter, michelle cortez, who's been tracking this. michelle, the who and governments are about this variant, especially when they're hearing about the symptoms. we're hearing from south africa that they are mild so far, but still a cautionary stance from government. michelle: we heard from south
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africa that the people who have gotten this variant have had mild infections. some of them didn't have any symptoms at all. and no one seems to have fallen severely ill from this. right away, within 12 hours, we heard from the who, hey, hold on here for a minute. there are some worries and signs. not only the 30 different types of mutations that we're seeing with this particular variant that has them on the edge of their seat, since they don't know what each one of those means. the also they're seeing an increase in hospitalizations and south africa and some indications that it can break through vaccines and that we're seeing reinfection in people who have been previously vaccinated and survived in earlier covid infection. so who and these world leaders are saying it is much too early to say that this is mild, and so we really want to take things cautiously, at least at first. on the other hand, these
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officials in south africa are saying it does appear mild. this could be a mutation that works to the world's benefit. we just really don't know yet. dani: how widespread is it at this point, michelle? where is it? where has it been detected? and at what point will be no more answers about how damaging it might be? michelle: so there's two different points to that question. the first part is where it's been detected. it's been detected in about 20 countries across the world. but the true answer is it's almost definitely everywhere in the world. there is likely not very many places that are currently not seeing at least one of these cases. now we don't know exactly how widely it's going to spread outside of these southern african countries, right? we have seen a previous variant that was widespread in south africa that did not take off elsewhere. meanwhile, the delta outbreak emerged in india and took over the entire world. so in its early days, we don't
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know which one is going to play out with this particular omicron variant. but give it probably a week or two. we'll know how serious this variant is going to be. but because south africa and these countries acted so quickly, we probably have a good six weeks of a heads up. if we're all going to get walloped by this, it's going to take time for it to actually happen and actually spread to a huge number of people. so we do have time to prepare. dani: right, and we'll probably continue to get these headlines like this morning, france detecting cases. michelle, thank you so much. meanwhile, markets, we see u.s. futures, yields, and oil rebounding this morning after the new variant led to a selloff on friday. but asia stocks continue to fall as investors try to calibrate the economic risks coming from the omicron strand. we're joined by our mliv editor ven ram. how vulnerable do markets look at this point following the
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selloff on friday? ven: morning, dani. i think the markets are feeling rather vulnerable despite the come back in risk assets. the clear marker of this can be found -- if you look at risk reversal, they had a massive put option on -- there was a massive bid on put options relative to call options. so if you look at the risk reversals, you can see the massive slump going all the way across, to march 2020. now that shows how finicky markets are. we'll need two more weeks to get this to find out how transmissible this variant is. so i do think we're not out of the woods yet. and this has implications for the central banks, who are going to be meeting over the next few weeks. dani?
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manus: i'll pick it up from here, ven. thank you so much. yeah, a huge amount of repricing going on across the rates market. our mliv ven ram there, our editor. traders trying to reassess the risk on global demand from the new virus variant. speculation also mounting that omicron may decide to pause the output, and they will meet this week. let's get to dan mercer, who joined is now. i noticed when we came to air, we had no vaccine. opec-plus partners didn't ask to review the deal. i think this is significant. it set the bar on monday morning on a debate where they add more bars or not. your assessment? good morning. dan: good morning. yeah, i think the friday selloff was probably overdone, the day after thanksgiving is famously light in trading. and you hit a couple of technical hurdles, like crossing 100 date and 200 day averages.
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and then, as dani mentioned earlier, face negative gamma selling for banks trying to cover their oppositions to sale drillers. -- shale drillers. so we're seeing a little bit of a pickup today with people optimistically buying. this opec meeting is starring things into confusion. even before the omicron outbreak, people were wondering how opec was going to respond to the coordinated spr release that was in such headlines last week. so now, trying to figure out whether they're going to increase output or take a little bit of pause. the market has six or seven different moving variables that it's tried to keep track of all at once here. it's a bit of a juggling match. dani: dan, thank you for helping us keep track of different variables the markets are dealing with. that's bloomberg's dan murtaugh joining us. now let's get to the bloomberg first word news.
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an early data suggest american shoppers returned to stores on this black friday. and this year, it remains well below pre-pandemic levels. visit to stores and shopping levels trailed, but were up almost 50% on last year's numbers. adobe estimates online purchases totaled $8.9 billion at the low end of expectations and slightly less than last year. blackstone, the world's number one equity firm, is among the key holdouts yet to sign a cup 26 pledge to eliminate co2 emissions and sanitary overheating. 450 of the biggest names in global finance agreed to the declaration at glasgow earlier this month. fellow giants apollo and kkr have also not signed the deal. australia's prime minister scott morrison is proposing new legislation that would force social media firms to reveal the identity of anonymous trials. under the law, people who
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believe they've been defamed could get a court order forcing companies to disclose who is behind the post. if companies refused, it would have to pay defamation costs. and lvmh's star designer has died after battling cancer for several years. avril came to prominence as kanye west's accretive director, but made history as the first african-american to head louis vuitton. he was a key figure in the brand's push to attract more millennials. and that your first word news. manus? manus: dani, thank you very much. coming up, omicron, the uncertainty. markets will assess the new variant.s havens will bid on friday. appraisal and risk for the fx market. that's next. dani? dani: also, we're going to speak to nissan, which unveiled a plan to electrify cars and turn battery powered vehicles into a pillar of its long-term growth. we're going to speak to the ceo about the strategy at 6:30 p.m.
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london time. don't miss it. this is bloomberg. ♪
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manus: it's daybreak europe. i'm manus cranny in dubai, dani burger alongside me in london. markets facing weeks of uncertainty. the labs around the world will investigate omicron valeant's -- variants. the swiss franc is paying some of its friday gains. the job is not easy. he suggest g10 strategist at nomura. welcome. good to see you. the two classic havens exploded on friday as a result of the news flow on omicron. what i want to get a sense from you, jordan, is the moves that we saw on friday in the haven trades. how much flow really went into
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the haven trade? good morning. jordan: an absolute large amount of flow. it's because both swiss and yen in the foreign exchange market has two consensus trades looking to sell them with the rise of u.s. yields and the rise of global growth expectations and equity out performing. those two safe haven currencies are also the funders, with low yields, central banks are unlikely to raise rates of. with yen and with's wits -- rates. with yen and with, with omicron fills -- fears, that led to a huge rally in those currencies. the key difference for the swiss franc is the s&p didn't seem to be intervening here. it's got a lot of people scratching their heads, wondering why the swiss franc is rallying. because typically, the central bank will be stepping into stop this level of depreciation. dani: and jordan, we were just
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speaking moments ago with ven ram, who pointed out that put demand in the dollar-yen surged, as well in march 2020 highs, so perhaps some short squeeze, as you mentioned the position going on in the currency. when you look at what's happens now, how much of that has watched out? could we see more demand for the yen to come out at this point? jordan: i think we're actually getting close already. we're getting close to the market remembering that essentially every variant of concern so far, we had pretty good levels of vaccine efficacy. and we've got booster programs. in the world is much more naturally immune, and also vaccine immune to previous strains of the virus. so the markets are going to keep overreacting. what we sell was liquidity post thanksgiving. but in yen, the question you've got to ask yourself, will this stop the fed from hiking next year? with this main -- mean inflation slows down?
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i think the answer is no to all three of those. i think the fed will still raise rates. all of those factors will see inflation remain strong. we're not going to see lockdowns come back into the u.s. like we saw in 2020. we got joe biden speaking tonight. is addressing the nation. as we saw in the u.k., unlikely to go to severe restrictions. those three factors, inflation growth and the fed, they're the same, and dollar-yen probably bounces back. maybe not today, but later this week. if not, we have to sit here and wait until the vaccine efficacy results come back, which is within two weeks. manus: you're front running the fed conversation. we'll dig more into that. the variant that inflation. i want to know why you are so convicted of being short euro in this current environment. is that on omicron will risk? -- omicron risk?
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what is that predicated on? jordan: i have essentially not used covid and mike trading strategies -- my trading strategies. the flows are what matters most in fx. the question i now have with omicron is, will this affect the flows? let's talk about the flows. the euro area trade surplus is slowing down as exports to china start to slow, china going for an a comic slowdown. also, the european consumer seems to be doing so at a faster clip. then you've got equities. european equities remain unattractive. in u.s. yields remained pretty much higher than european. all three of those flows won't change on the back of this omicron story, so i think that's the main driver of euro. the yield story is set to raise rates faster. this variant will probably, the ecb will remain dovish for longer, and this december meeting, which was a risk for my
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short dollar trade, probably less a risk now. they are likely to get hawkish, less so than the fed. i think the risks are the fed remains pretty optimistic despite all of this. . dani: jordan, we'll dig into that in just a bit. you're going to stick around a bit. jordan rochester there, who again, is sticking around. the fed should recognize that inflation is not transitory. manus was just discussing this. we're going to dig into that next. this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> i think it's time for a change in policy at the fed. and i was of the view that this may be easier with someone who hasn't repeated, over and over again, that inflation is transitory. don't worry about it.
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it's going away. inflation is not transitory. and it's really important for the fed to realize this. dani: bloomberg opinion columnists and allianz chief economic advisor mohamed el-erian acknowledging inflation is not transitory. still sticking around with us is jordan rochester, g10 effects strategist at nomura. just before the break, you are saying how the most recent variant doesn't change the inflation picture, perhaps agreeing with el-erian there, as well. but i wonder if the inflation picture could be exacerbated by the most recent change, if demand sticks around, and we see more restrictions in places like asia, where you have heavy manufacturing. jordan: dani, i'm with you on that. the risks are for inflation, let's say we have lockdown, that would be inflationary for those sectors in the very short-term. just think for next year, if we have a vaccine that solves the issue with this variant and a reopens, they are going to renew
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-- it reopens, they are going to raise the prices. what do consumers do? they can't go on holiday. that's been the big surprise on covid-19, has strong inflation has been throughout this period after years of inflationary pressures. there now getting inflationary rushers, especially from -- pressures, especially from cars. we see the data, it's re-accelerated in october and november. we're going to see in other sectors, food prices next year, food to consumer and expectations of inflation. do we see wage pressures, as well? that's the story, inflation this year. from those sectors, from the wage price pressures, that's going to mean inflation is probably going to settle at a higher rate than it was before covid. manus: and that's exactly the conversation i had with the ceo.
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he says i'm now getting pushed on rate hikes -- wage hikes more aggressively. higher wages, perhaps even a more aggressive taper and a more aggressive fed maybe then the market is currently assuming. is that the correct corolla rate? and if so, what does that mean for the dollar? jordan: well, the markets are expecting rate hikes next year for the u.k., for the u.s. the next year, the following year, they still expect 2023 rate hikes, but definitely slow down. markets are essentially saying we're going to get close to terminal rates. we'll start to see inflationary rates come through. there is one thorn in the side of the view, which is that china is slowing down. and when china slows down, it's unlikely to lead to strong growth in the euro area, for example, next year. so because of that growth concern, that's why the markets are pricing what it is. i think that when it comes to all the surveys we're looking at, every month it keeps getting worse.
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labor shortages and price pressures. until that materially changes, we've got this slowing growth in china but strong demand in the u.s. euro area and u.k. for the time being, we're ok on the growth site. the main factor driving this will be those surveys, labor shortages. if so, i can't see a scenario where great -- where wages don't rise. manus: thank you. the next time you appear on this show, we expect little touch of requiem behind you there. ok, we'll have a little bit of that. dani and i are great backup singers. jordan rochester, the multitalented, multiskilled, not just fx that man carries in his get bag. betting on ev's, a strategy for going green. we'll discuss with the ceo. that's next, how green is nissan? what is the? is the ceo seeing -- the?
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is the ceo seeing in foot -- the capex? is the ceo seeing green? this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> good morning from bloomberg's european headquarters. 6:30 a.m. in the city of london. i am dani burger alongside manus cranny who is in dubai. this is "bloomberg daybreak: europe." here is what you need to know. not taking any chances. more countries restrict travel and impose tighter curves as oma krohn cases -- omicron cases spring up around the world. relative calm. oil rebounds.
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u.s. equity futures rise on hopes the new variant causes only mild symptoms. nissan unveils an $18 billion plan to electrify its fleet. we will be speaking to the automaker's ceo at 6:30 london time. manus, good morning to you. we are both back in the studio at a time when markets are settling from a very volatile friday. it's interesting to see it across the board. we have this big grab for puts. we were talking to jordan rochester who pointed out risks move in the market besides the variant as well. the risk that china slows down and what that means for growth concerns. manus: and i think that this is the other conversation i have had in the past two hours. with the concern about global growth comes curves, flatness. his sweet this morning talked about bullish equity markets and
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bond markets. this is what he had to say. it's too early to have definitive data, reported data suggests the omicron virus is mild to moderate symptoms, less severity, more transmissible, but less severe. if that turns out to be true, this is bullish, not bearish, for markets. a bullish call on equities and bearish on bonds. this is what jordan reaffirmed to both of us. demonstrable slopes into the yen and swiss on friday. dani: it is a relief to see the havens acting their part when you see flow into the yen. you see treasuries moving higher. as well as yields moving lower. it is nice to see that we had an orderly risk-off type of market because for so long, we have been questioning it. where you hedge? -- where do you hedge, is bitcoin the new hedge? manus: bitcoin. crushed so maybe
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that apparent inflation hedge is a misnomer. oil is on a bid. it crashed back 11% on friday so you are seeing brent up by 3.73%. no call for renegotiating -- renegotiation of terms. no intervention. jordan said he was surprised by that. at the magical 105 level. s&p futures up .7%. what do you want to belong off ? -- be long off? it is a lot more aggressive in terms of mobility. shutdowns and border closures. let's get up to speed with the first word headlines this monday morning. the world health organization is working with researchers to better understand the new coronavirus variant after health
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experts inside africa said it appeared to cause only mild symptoms. w.h.o. says no information yet to suggest omicron symptoms differ from those caused by other variants. early data suggests american shoppers returned to stores on black friday, remaining well below pre-pandemic levels. according to samsung attacks -- sensormatics, they trailed. we are up almost 50%. the estimate for the online purchases totaling just under $9 billion at the low end of expectations, slightly less than a year ago. a chinese food delivery giant fell in hong kong after a brutal antitrust program and competition from alibaba sought wider losses. the company is overhauling
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business with investment in autonomous vehicles and drone delivery. blackstone, the world's number one private equity firm, is among the key holdouts on the pledge to eliminate omissions to limit planetary overheating. 450 of the biggest names in global finance in glasgow earlier this month. kkr has also not signed on. australia's prime minister, scott morrison, is proposing new legislation that would force social media firms to reveal the identities of anonymous trolls. under the laws, people who believe they have been defamed could go to court and get an order forcing companies to disclose who is behind the post. if companies refuse, they have to pay defamation costs. those are your first word headlines from around the world. dani, we are really trying to
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make sense of the risks this morning and i think this goes to the heart of the issue which is you have a two week vacuum before we really begin to hear from the likes of pfizer. we heard a little bit from a dharna over the weekend. spike proteins in this variant are most concerning for the omicron variant. dani: it is so true and i think that this is a big reason why perhaps we are seeing markets rebound but it's kind of hard to say that you are seeing strong conviction anywhere in this market. there are still so many unknowns. we will have to wait and see exactly what the effect is, if this actually is a more mild variant, how effective vaccines are as well. friday was overdone, but the kinds of comebacks we are not seeing are necessarily, you know, very, very strong, manus. manus, let's get to one of our
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top conversations today and this is about nissan, which is making an $18 billion bet on electric vehicles. the carmaker is electrifying more of its lineup over the next five years as part of its plan for long-term growth in the easy market. for more, we are joined by stephen engle in japan who accompanies the ceo. stephen: this is a big announcement by nissan as they are making their largest investment to electrify their lineup to date and i want to get right to our guest, the ceo of nissan. then you so much for joining us on bloomberg television. congratulations on this announcement. that is a longer-term goal as far as this electrification of about half your fleet by 2030. the near term pressures are very real because of covid outbreaks and the supply chain and the chips and the high price of commodities and the like.
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can i just get to start, before we talk about the easy push, how is -- how concerned are you by this, you know, outbreaks, if you will, of this omicron variant that could potentially disrupt supply chains again for nissan? uchida-san: well, first of all, thank you for having me out today. and yes, indeed, this situation of the pandemic and the chip supply shortage are -- in the industry. how we anticipate this will be key for us. so far, our company is worried about managing this fy 21 of our outlook and we are growing and doing progress at the right pace . we need to work with partners to make sure supply chains are going to recover in terms of the
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semiconductor which is very, very something that we need to further anticipate for sure. stephen: how specifically are you concerned by this new variant, omicron? uchida-san: well, this is something, first of all, i would like them to make the right level of company care to our employees, to the family, to the partner. how we can make sure not to be affected, how we can make sure to continue to do so in the company and moving our business. again, i would say we need to anticipate many cases and we have to make sure that our businesses are going to run at the right pace despite all the uncertainty. this is something that we are discussing a lot in our global business, to make sure of their safety and the health that has to be taken care of in the company and we do put a lot of
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priority on to that and focus onto that. stephen: let's shift our focus to this ¥2 trillion investment scheduled over the next five years or so to electrify about half your fleet by 2030. how do you plan to fund this 2 trillion yen investment in ev's? uchida-san: well, we are planning this ambition. this is where we want to be, what we are aiming for. we want to make sure to provide safer, cleaner, inclusive -- how it can make our value proposition. as you mentioned, the investment is quite huge but we have already been investing. definitely, we are talking about the portfolios shifting more onto the electrify vehicles
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where that investment and the new electrified vehicle investment balances that out while we are going further to keep the momentum of the nissan next which means the fixed cost optimization and the revenue enhancement with the new vehicle -- so all this balance, i'm very confident that we can make this future investment while we are growing our company itself. stephen: have you considered may be issuing green bonds for this? this is an environmentally friendly announcement as you electrify more of your fleet. would green bonds be something you are looking at? uchida-san: we are in discussion with the government, how we can enhance the strategy. along with that, we are talking many opportunities on how we can collaborate with each government of deregulation or how we can contribute. this cannot be done alone.
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i would like to talk to the partnership of the government or any kind of a sector, how we together can make our cleaner, safer industry as a whole. this is a lot of good discussions that we are implementing with parties today. stephen: could you kindly break down that ¥2 trillion figure? how much of that would be towards vehicles designed? and a more critical because as well. investment in batteries. you have a partnership with shanghai-based envision, but what is your plan for batteries? uchida-san: yes, we already have announced today -- we will continue with our partnership and we would drive our cost off to my station on the battery acknowledging that we are going and we will reduce the
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optimization of the costs. we want to invest for the solid-state battery. this battery technology can -- the vehicle of the ev in the future, but this is what we are working simultaneously. this is going to be with a partnership discussion at what will be the core technology that nissan will make in the domain of the company and give value to the customer. i would buy to emphasize that we are -- we have been working on this for many years. we are the first company who made the battery commercialized in the industry. we have 11 years of the leaf experience with customers and partners so we would like to further demonstrate what nissan can bring under this electrification strategy to the customer and to the world. stephen: we just got those numbers for october as well. global output for nissan was down 21.5%, second month in a row where they are feeling lots of pain.
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there are supply chain constraints. can you give me an update on what your assessment will be for the chip supply, the shortage that we have right now? how are you faced with it? uchida-san: yes, we are still working with a partnership and the chip supply situation, hopefully to become better in the next couple months. step-by-step. we had a lot of shortage of supply in the past. we wanted to recover that in the second half but the situation today is not that optimistic. unfortunately, that is something realistic because we want to have a realistic view. we can discuss with our partner to recover the situation of this plan. stephen: makoto uchida-san,
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thank you so much for your time on bloomberg television. after you raised your fiscal your outlook for march 22, maybe we will again talk at that time. i will send it back to you. manus: thank you. great conversation with the nissan ceo going green in hong kong. coming up on the show, we are going to talk airlines responding to the daily news of travel restrictions. just when you thought it was safe to get your passport out, restrictions are live. the new omicron variant take hold and borders rise. we will discuss on bloomberg. ♪
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manus: it's daybreak europe. i am manus cranny in dubai. dani burger alongside me in london.
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our lead story is omicron. the airlines have had to respond to a day lose of travel restrictions -- daily use -- d eluge of travel restrictions. the new strain was first detected in southern africa. it should make travel more expensive and less convenient if that is possible at all. it's already hellishly inconvenient. let's get to our guest at bernstein. this is borders rising, mobility dropping. just some context for us. are you surprised by the speed with which these borders and checks are being erected? good morning. >> thank you very much for having me this morning. in terms of the speed with which it is happening, ultimately, no, governments have learned to be a little more cautious after the last 18 months or so. you have seen what happens when they are moving slowly and they
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want to be slightly more cautious than they might otherwise be get at the same time, i think airlines are ready for that. they have been used to the playbook of what happens when we have restrictions, what happens, how do we respond to that, how do we shot down, how do we make sure we have operational continuity? they are ready for that this time as well. dani: even before this latest variant became a concern to the markets on friday, we already had stocks pretty weak, trading around 2020 lows. how prepared are airlines if demand starts to slow? how strong our balance sheets and their ability to survive any weakness in the sector? alex: much better prepared than they have been in the past. we have learned how to respond to a shutdown and they pivoted operations towards that. liquidity is far stronger than it was in early 2020 and at the same time, they reduced the fixed cost element and able to ramp down operations as much as before. they are far better prepared than they have been in the past. manus: let's extend that. we caught up with michael
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o'leary a couple weeks ago, smelling breakevens. i'm paraphrasing on michael's behalf. if you have to begin to dissect the market from an equity perspective, how will you differentiate it? balance sheet strength, those who can weather another turbulent patch? how can you differentiate? alex: there are two main ways to differentiate between the different companies -- the various companies in the market. one is the balance sheet to ryanair probably has the strongest and the whole sector. lots of liquidity. the other is the kind of traffic that you have, the business travel, leisure travel for terrorism, and leisure travel to visit friends and relatives. the short-haul airlines will be better than the long-haul airlines, but within that, those who were exposed to visiting friends and relatives travel will see more of a mix.
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you might visit mom for christmas even if you don't to spend it on the beach or holiday. dani: even though we might have that distinction, there was a pretty widespread selloff. is this the full downside case priced in at the moment or could we see stocks fall even further from here? alex: this is a lot of downside priced in and when i look at the airlines, we are looking at -- -- medium -- businesses. they will have a bit more certainty over the recovery than legacy carriers but ultimately, you are not buying these stocks in early 2022. what is the earnings power after we come out -- after we deliver the virus in the new normal. manus: how much more pressure with the asian airlines, australasian airlines face?
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my sense is that japan, australia, etc., running hot and fast on restrictions. japan the latest two foreigners. they will be quick to -- to ban foreigners. alex: it can be more difficult to take off borders. you don't want to be too fast in doing that if you are a government but ultimately, the more long-haul travel we have -- dealing with the borders. large domestic markets have exposure. one thing we saw in 2020 is the coordination restrictions within the e.u., within the schengen area. we brought in additional covert certificates and helps customers to travel with more certainty for the restrictions they would be facing as we came through the year. that brought europe closer to large domestic markets that the u.s. and that helped the airlines. if you have a large domestic market, that probably helps you.
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if you do not, that is yet another drag on your business. more uncertainty for your potential customers. dani: great to see that there were no travel restrictions for you getting into the studio so far this morning. alex irving at bernstein. we will have plenty more ahead. this is bloomberg. ♪
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dani: welcome back to "bloomberg daybreak: europe." i am dani burger in london alongside manus cranny in dubai. manus, today talks to revive the iran nuclear deal began in vienna. it will be the seventh round of meetings between the u.s., iran, the e.u., and china. jay powell and janet yellen attend a senate banking committee hearing on the pandemic response. powell is also expected to defend his renomination, manus. manus: on wednesday, they start
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trading on the nasdaq following a facebook rebrand so that is going to come through on wednesday and thursday. it's the beginning of two days of meetings for opec-plus and on friday, we will get the jobs report, expected to be more than 500,000. we will keep a close i on the participant -- close eye on the participation rate. it is demonstrable, palpable on gmm, and it has been there for a number of hours. it's about bond yields rising, oil markets in relief mode, and to that extent, look at that. the commodity board. oil up over 5%. brent up 4.25%. dani: one thing i was surprised about on the commodity board is that it is falling today. i just got back to the u.k. yesterday and it is so cold here. we are facing an energy crisis in europe. previous to this, if that exacerbates things. manus: it is a balmy 32, 35.
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it is a gorgeous day at the beach. scorsese has been here this morning and he filled my new market minute. i would watch it. i encourage you -- [laughter] ♪ it's another day.
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>> good morning. welcome to "bloomberg markets: european open." i am anna edwards. mark cudmore joins me from singapore to take us through all of the market action this hour. the cash trade is less than one hour away so here are your top monday headlines. not taking any chances, more countries restrict travel and impose tighter curves as omicron cases spring up around the world. the who urging caution, saying more time is needed to gauge the threat.


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