Skip to main content
Internet Archive's 25th Anniversary Logo

tv   Bloomberg Markets Asia  Bloomberg  November 29, 2021 9:00pm-11:00pm EST

9:00 pm
pfizer and modernity get to work on vaccines and target the variant, promising updates early in the new year. >> it is about the virus. there has been a lot of consternation. let's accentuate the positives, chinese pmi numbers above 50. what does that tell us? the economy might not be slowing as much as anticipated. the shanghai composite has gained each one of these releases. not necessarily immediately. this includes the times when we had big misses. positive pmi's better than anticipated, so further expansion. you love these stats. in the six hours following any release, the shanghai composite to the upside. >> the data doesn't matter. >> putting it nicely.
9:01 pm
>> let's look at the data. measured from friday, we are high on risk, equities and bonds, not all the way back just yet. i'll-yen, 113.71, not all the way back. looking at food prices on the back of opec, that will come into focus. jay powell putting comments about the virus strain, a reminder for markets that it is something they are thinking about. let's look at these measures. we talked about this, the five year yield friday, monday, here is where we are come on the low end of the range, dollar-yen ditto. vix futures, we came down and we are continuing to see that fall although that said, not all the way back just yet. yvonne: just how much pain have we recovered from?
9:02 pm
is there a risk of this dipping? that is one of the key questions we are asking. the latest out of asia, taking no chances with the virus when you talk about japan. following israel, shutting their borders for the next few weeks. they say starting today, they will begin banning foreign visitors. hong kong also extending or strengthening quarantine rules, barring visitors before -- from more african countries. australia and taiwan, the list goes on. here you go, the gist of this is countries are act now, ask questions later when it comes to the efficacy of vaccines and how long it will take before new vaccines are on the table. rishaad: there are questions about what happens with the fed tapering. there is a mandate the federal reserve has. jay powell has warned about
9:03 pm
this. he has been talking about inflation risks and the threat to maximum employment. that is a quote from him, increased uncertainty for inflation, didn't say anything about changing the pace of tapering. morgan stanley strategist predict they will forestall rate hikes next year. are they on the case, these pharmaceutical companies? that is the thing. david: they are giving us a rough timeline. the news has generally been positive that we might see them be able to come of the current vaccines we have might be able to do so. we don't know, we heard from pfizer and moderna. >> if we -- the virus escapes the protection of our vaccine after a booster dose, which would be very difficult, we have
9:04 pm
started the process of developing a tailor-made vaccine but not only we have very high confidence but we will have it ready within 100 days. but we have very high level of confidence that we can manufacture it by billions if needed. >> i think this threat is something we have not seen before. the number of variations, mutations on the virus are surprising. they are not impossible but extremely rare. we have to take it for the serious threat it poses. yvonne: those two statements, able to calm markets in the last 24 hours. let's bring in our strategist with the latest. seems like right now people are saying if this continues, i will wait, maybe first quarter next year to see any kind of clarity.
9:05 pm
is that the right approach? >> i think have a lot to digest. the big takeaway will be reinforcement from the fed speakers. this sudden change in the virus is not going to derail them from wanting to reduce their stimulus and the financial markets. not only will they end tapering, possibly earlier than expected, they will announce something in december. what you here recently suggests they are ready to speed up tapering. i don't think there is much doubt that they are preparing markets for at least one, possibly two rate hikes in 2022. the threat to the markets is not that great because the appetite for lockdowns is very low. the united states doesn't appear to want lockdowns. the u.k. doesn't. that would be the economic
9:06 pm
impact taken away. jay powell is speaking to politicians, towns to sound dovish because politicians want to hear that but he doesn't represent all the voices on the federal reserve. this week you will hear more federal reserve people adding to the signs they think inflation has stayed too high for too long and they need to do something, and that means rate hikes have to be brought forward to the middle of next year. david: that takes us i would imagine to the same sort of wall markets were up against, assuming this, let's take it from thursday, that they are up against a tightening cycle. what does that mean for the long and? does -- the long end? does this case remain? >> eventually we will have a decent flattening of the yield curve particularly in u.s. treasuries. it is erratic and that is partly
9:07 pm
because of positioning. some of the short positions in different parts of the curve are so big going into thanksgiving bit you have seen such wild swings in the market on friday and they continued yesterday. part of what you are seeing is an unwinding of positioning. it happens very close to the month and, not too far away from year and had some -- year end. you are still going to continue to have a radical movements for the next couple weeks. liquidity will be reduced. i suggest once we get into next year when people have cleaner opportunity to trade the market, you will see a general flattening of the yield curve gradually over the pit -- the space of a few months. yvonne: watching all things fx, when it comes to the dollar move, what should we be watching out for? >> the dollar-yen move at the end of last week was significant and dramatic. it was backed up by large
9:08 pm
movements in the options market. if you look at the risk reversal skew, which tells you how people are positioning for a lower higher -- or higher currency, you had an amazing swing but people are betting on a lower dollar-yen. that doesn't mean it will happen all in one go, but the shift is so dramatic in a short space of time. it has cut out a lot of dollar bulls out of the yen market. we are seeing a neutral position and there is a decent chance we have seen the high for dollar-yen this year and may start to drift lower. the past few days have upended a lot of people's views on the direction of dollar-yen. rishaad: mark, a pleasure as ever. the question of the day, how would low rates for longer actually move assets? there you go. that is it erie let's discuss the economic impact of the new virus variant with a morgan stanley economist.
9:09 pm
it is very early in the day, but it -- there are questions about the brittleness of the recovery. and how it could go in reverse. what are your thoughts? >> i think they are watching out for three things. one is the transmissive -- transmissibility. will this be the dominant variant? the question is to what degree. and the severity, indicators that hospitalizations and fatality rates. there is downside growth risk to the outlook for asia but to the extent it is not transmissible as delta, and negative impact would not be as severe as we saw with delta and in the second quarter of last year. the private sector has adapted
9:10 pm
to the new normal. policymakers are unlikely to take a lockdown approach but they will adopt a composite approach. we are better positioned today. the estimate that most asian economies would be able to implement vaccination of 89% or more of the population by march of this year. yvonne: it won't be like last year, but the economic backdrop is much different when you have these inflationary pressures. what happens when you continue to see supply chains struggle, yet consumer demand remains strong? is this longer-term inflationary or disinflationary? >> the impact on growth is clear. there is on-site growth risk but the impact is more ambiguous. you mentioned the supply-side chains, the new variant does
9:11 pm
look like downside grown -- growth risk and pressures may be less severe because of how oil traded last friday when brent prices came down as markets responded to the news on the new covid variant. david here -- david: david here. you're getting gdp out today. seems like a lot of factors suggest there will be some challenges, but when you look at these forecasts, do you think recovery can continue in india into next year? >> yes. i do expect that in the base case. if you think about general growth trajectory for asia, the reality is mono cyclical growth recovery, we think growth transitioning from what we call a goldilocks phase two an
9:12 pm
expansion phase, in the expansion phase we will broaden note to india as far as asean. india has been very successful in terms of implementing vaccination rates. that will help the growth domestically. there is high frequency indicators picking up in recent months. rishaad: do stick around. the pmi numbers out of china, what they all mean. let's have a look at the first word news. the world health organization morning the omicron variant could fuel a fresh surge of infections with severe consequences. we are seeing uncertainties with the new variant, which appears to be more transmissible than previous strains. south african authorities say children under the age of two account for about 10% of
9:13 pm
hospitalizations in the omicron epicenter. china pledging to buy another one billion vaccine doses for the african continent. 600 million doses will be donated while the rest will be produced by chinese businesses. he spoke on the forum on china-africa cooperation where he pledged $20 billion in investments over the next three years. honduras has declared its first female president. the candidate is on track for a landslide win. this would and 12 years of conservative rule by the national party. she pledged to tax the rich and overhaul what she calls the nation's failed lead -- neoliberal model. she is considering ending diplomatic relations with taiwan in favor of china. that is a look at first word news. yvonne: with the beijing winter
9:14 pm
olympics weeks away, we speak to the chairman of the olympic broadcasting services to discuss a potential boycott and any impact of a scandal. this is bloomberg. ♪
9:15 pm
9:16 pm
yvonne: the big news has been about the china pmi numbers on the back of news about virus concerns easing. you see concerns about china growth easing as well, given what we saw in november. pmi non-manufacturing pmi, both above 50. better than expected so perhaps we are seeing there is a sustainable recovery in play. david: even the officials mentioned that there is an improvement in all three. largely this has bolstered the case that the economy is on
9:17 pm
sound footing going into next year. that is relative. we looked under the hood, the headline number is 50.1 but the five major sub gains, output, new orders, you can look all the way down, some of them are still in contraction but you are seeing an improvement. we are starting hopefully coming out of the woods from the downtrend. rishaad: let's not forget november is odd when you compare it to october. october has that holiday and are more working days. let's accentuate the positives. let's go back to our guest. what do you make of these numbers? when you drilled into them, what did you find? did they tell you anything about the inflationary rise and what is perhaps happening in terms of the economy, in a granular way? >> i think it shows the economy
9:18 pm
is likely showing a sequential rebound. the numbers came in higher, above consensus. there in mind a lot of china's growth was policy induced and we are seeing measures taken to kind of address the pressure point on that front of coal production picking up, around 9% in november. they approved more coal production. i think power rationing is no longer there for most of the provinces. at the same time, the external environment is helping china as well. we have already seen export numbers continue to show robust growth in the teens territory and some of the supply-side concerns, like on the chip side, have been alleviated with policies in the region. this has been helping chinese
9:19 pm
numbers we saw this morning. yvonne: does it reduce the urgency for policymakers to ramp up support for the chinese economy? >> they are -- i think there will be scope for them to announce more policy easing measures, both fiscal and monetary, because right now growth is probably below trend. we expect more easing on the fiscal side, more announcement in terms of special bonds issuance and next year. there will be a mixture in terms of projects and potentially corporate tax cuts and pro-consumption measures. the cuts will be forthcoming in facilities as well as relaxation to get the economy back on track
9:20 pm
to the 5.5% growth momentum, which is our forecast. david: exports have been a major driver. it is also a major driver when it comes to fx markets. do you see that component you mentioned earlier, the export numbers out of korea? do you see external demand holding up well into next year? >> there are two ways to look at it. one is looking at the export numbers, they were moderate. they come from a high base this year but we suspect it will remain up above. the global forecast is for .7%, close to one percentage point higher than the last 10 years. i think the demand will be there, given all the focus on digitalization, and the inventory rebuilding the u.s., i
9:21 pm
think these are factors that will continue to keep global growth in exports above trend levels for next year. rishaad: you are saying fret not, you are going from goldilocks to steady-state expansion. what do you mean? >> what we mean is growth will advance to a more mature phase. the cycle will advance to a more mature phase. we seek macro trends, one being that growth will broaden from the frontrunners in north asia to india and exports to domestic demand. i think inflation will rise but it will not get out of hand because i think supplies will ease. most of these asia economies are causing an output gap so pressures won't be that acute. i think policy will normalize, but without disrupting the growth cycle, is what investors
9:22 pm
are fearing with the fed taper. rishaad: have a fabulous day. if you are a bloomberg subscriber you can catch up with all of our interviews using our interactive function. join the chat by sending instant messages to our team during our live shows. this is bloomberg. ♪
9:23 pm
9:24 pm
yvonne: business flash headlines, reports say china's it strategic investors a set up a strategic equity fund. business registration data for the report says the fund has registered capital of $2.3 billion. huarong delayed the end will
9:25 pm
report, raising concern over $242 billion in liability. an asset manager purchased more debt issued by china ever grand -- evergrande even as there was a selloff. ashmore bought bonds, bringing its holding to more than 500 billion dollars. ashmore was already the biggest holder of the property developer's bonds before the selloff. rishaad: and macau, gaining stocks, having a torrid time. what we have been witnessing is these junkets in focus by the chinese regular -- regulator and the arrest of a ceo. there is an arrest warrant for the chief executive. highrollers apparently scurrying to leave, fearing police raids. this is one of the biggest
9:26 pm
gambling hub's in the world. 35% down. yvonne: there is a financial impact. they don't have the support from the ceo, they say he intended to resign as well but as you mentioned, there are longer term implications about the future of macau amidst this regulatory clack down. -- crackdown. he is one of the highest profile executives to be caught in the storm. david: junkets are the fuel and liquidity that allows some of the gambling to take place, if you will, the funding quite literally. we will see what happens. stocks down by almost 40%. there is a conversation today which i guess we can talk more about later, japan losing some of its have to on -- it's heft on msci china. if you want to mirror the index, we are looking at japan right
9:27 pm
now as we head into the last break. the collapse on friday took it in one session, below all three. we were knocking on the door of the first one. whether we get the by the end of the day it's another day. and anything could happen. it could be the day you welcome 1,200 guests and all their devices. or it could be the day there's a cyberthreat. only comcast business' secure network solutions give you the power of sd-wan and advanced security integrated on our activecore platform so you can control your network from anywhere, anytime. it's network management redefined. every day in business is a big day. we'll keep you ready for what's next. comcast business powering possibilities.
9:28 pm
9:29 pm
david: 10:29 in the morning and hong kong -- in hong kong, moving towards mid-evening out of the east coast in the asia-pacific the are up about six points, 192 and change. rishaad: let's get a look at what is going on in the first word news. china's factory sentiment improving a november, the impact of a power crunch subsided and inflation pressure eased.
9:30 pm
this is the first time in months it has topped the 50 mark. the non-manufacturing gauge majoring construction and service activity actually fell -- measuring construction and service activity actually fell. looking at china's factory production, edging up in october following a three-month slide. this, signs of the crisis egypt -- easing before the emergence of the omicron variant. a 1.9% gain but unemployment ticking down to 2.7%. the omicron variant, posing risks to both sides of the mandate. that is to achieve stable prices and maximum employment. i head of his senate appearance, powell says the virus could reduce people's willingness to
9:31 pm
work in person. it may intensify supply chain disruptions. he did not discuss tapering. sweden's first female prime minister is being reelected after narrowly winning a vote in parliament. social -- the social democrats will ease political turmoil prompted by the resignation and inability to form a cabinet last week. she stepped down hours after being appointed when her junior partner quit following a budget dispute. not the first person i'm sure who has had problems assembling a swedish cabinet. that's your first word news. yvonne: the reappearance and disappearance of a chinese tennis star has become a headache for china. she accused a former chinese vice premier of sexual assault
9:32 pm
and the post was taken down. she went missing. after several weeks, state medio posted -- media posted video and photos of her. a video call was set up with the international olympic committee after the international outcry continued. let's discuss this with a senior member at the ioc, who joins us. thanks for joining us. it has been a week since the 30 minute video call with her and your president. tell us about the latest. you faced a lot of criticism internationally on this. is the ioc fully satisfied she is safe? >> based on the conversation the president had with with the chair of the athletes committee, and the chinese member, the international olympic committee, they were quite relieved and in
9:33 pm
fact, they have been the only ones who were able to have a conversation with ms. peng to date. david: the question is, if you wanted to speak with her again, would you be able to do it anytime? would you be able to reach her if you wanted to have a conversation? >> it worked first time. -- the first time. it was a successful outcome from the perspective of the ioc and its members. the arrangement is they will meet again as soon as the president gets to beijing in january. she was social enough, and i think he has invited her to lunch and that is the plan. this was the beginning of what is probably an ongoing dialogue
9:34 pm
about the revelations that she published and that were taken down from whatever the platform was, i think within 30 minutes of being posted. rishaad: the association remains unconvinced by all this. why are they unconvinced and you seemingly are? you are probably not going to say that you are 100% sure she is all right, but genuinely, because it is all about ultimately slowly quiet diplomacy rather than pointing fingers at the chest of beijing? >> i think those on the call were certainly satisfied. those not on the call don't have the benefit of what that discussion may have been. the fact is, it was the olympic network that called's it's so
9:35 pm
possible and so positive. it is very well to say that if you weren't on the call you still have questions. maybe you do. perhaps they will be answered in due course, but to think something as complex as allegations of sexual harassment can be solved thousands of miles away on a 30 minute phone call is frankly silly. there is no country in the world that can deal with a complex matter like that, without a full investigation. and hearing from both sides of it, and trying to decide what the circumstances were. i was disappointed. i thought everybody was anxious to make sure she was fine and healthy. the ioc was able to establish that but the others were not. all of a sudden it was somebody else's fault that all of their
9:36 pm
questions had been answered. yvonne: is the ioc, i'm wondering, have you been able to speak with her? or anybody with the ioc speaking with or without the presence of translators? the new york times has reported it was strange that she had a translator for parts of the conversation when she speaks fluent english. did you find that strange? >> i didn't hear the ioc members , the ioc members haven't heard the program. i think in anything that could be as potentially serious as a sexual harassment claim, anybody who is not speaking his or her first language would probably want to have somebody there that could help in the event that the vocabulary, the personal vocabulary was not up to the complexity of the subject.
9:37 pm
so i don't see anything sinister about that. david: follow-up -- to follow up, has the ioc been in touch? have you had conversations with authorities in beijing particularly about these allegations and claims? >> have i? no. i am a member at large of the ioc, i'm not on the executive order. i'm not the chair of our athletes commission. i'm not the chinese member in beijing and i'm not the president of the ioc, but they were all satisfied with the content and the atmosphere and all of that about the conversation. so i think i would prefer to rely on people who had the actual contact rather than those who tried to have it and haven't been able to achieve it. rishaad: can u.s. wage this -- can you assuage this by
9:38 pm
releasing the video? >> i don't know if the arrangement has been that she has revealed some of the private details of what the allegations might be, then asked if there is going to be any further action, that this not be released to the public. i don't know that. but in a private conversation, it would be like me, if you interviewed me and i said i don't want what i am about to tell you to be on the air, normally good journalism would make sure that is what happened. yvonne: the ioc, the statement didn't quite address concerns about her safety including why others can't get in touch with her. we haven't heard of any kind of interviews with media outlets, for example. seems like things have gone quiet since that 30 minute video
9:39 pm
with the ioc. what do you say to critics that say the ioc has gone out of its way to avoid angering beijing, and that the entity is complicit when it comes to targeting -- targeting peng shuai? >> i think that is a little silly. it is not supported by the evidence. all kinds of people were concerned about her being out of sight for a couple weeks after the posting of the material, and all kinds of people were trying to get in touch with her to make sure she was alive and healthy and not in captivity and all those sorts of things. the only organization in the world that has been able to establish that is the ioc, and that is because this was a discussion between essentially four olympians, the president is a former olympic champion, ms. peng, the chair of the athletes
9:40 pm
commission, and the chair of the ioc. they haven't -- they had kind of a dialogue and a commonality that can't be replaced easily or at all elsewhere. that was a very good start, and everyone should be reassured that she is fine and healthy and there are no signs of compulsion or anything like that. rather than speculating as to what might be the case or could be the case, i would rather rely on -- rishaad: if there are, if there is evidence that shows she has indeed been stopped from talking freely and kept at home more -- or if these allegations are with foundation, what can the ioc do practically in terms of the beijing games? >> good question. the ioc would not have any
9:41 pm
jurisdiction if the sexual harassment and so forth, they are criminal offenses. that is a matter for the criminal authorities in china. it is not a private nongovernmental organization in switzerland that should do anything about that, unless it is asked of course by the people involved. but i think the first step of making sure she was alive and certainly, to put it at its lowest, apparently healthy and happy where she was, is a long step ahead of where we were when nobody knew anything. i thought it was interesting that the issue changed from is she alive and well, to who should have been the first person or group to be in contact with her? david: with the games being this close, i remember a few years
9:42 pm
back when i think we were approaching, i think it was the world cup a couple years back and there was fifa, there were corruption allegations. at that point, that close to the world cup, i can't remember which example it was, there was a lot of conversation around corporate sponsors having conversations about pulling out. are you aware of any conversations the ioc is having with corporate partners as far as their support for this upcoming games? >> all the discussions we have had our with sponsors that are interested in all of the aspirational aspects of the olympic games, the internationalism, the peaceful nature. that is what they are supporting. those are aligned with their own business objectives. they are not discussing whether we should pull out or add
9:43 pm
conditions to whatever agreements we already have. most of them are longtime supporters of the olympics and are very proud and pleased to be playing that role. rishaad: thank you for joining us. dick pound from montreal. coming up, pfizer-biontech, moderna, j&j working to adapt their vaccines to beat the omicron variant. we have details on that on the way. this is bloomberg. ♪
9:44 pm
9:45 pm
yvonne: these are risk assets today, seeing a decent bounceback when it comes to equities although a mixed picture with the hang seng lower by 325 points. can't catch a break off that market. dollar-yen around 113.66, mark said we have possibly hit the peak when it comes to dollar-yen. let's look ahead to fed chair did jay powell saying the omicron variant plays -- poses risks to achieving stable prices and maximum employment. kathleen hays on what to expect out of his testimony later in
9:46 pm
the u.s.. this was a more dovish powell than expected? >> as dovish as you would expect at a time when he hasn't been hawkish on speeding up taper. we do have this risk of the omicron hitting global economies, so that is what is going on. two days of testimony, first of the senate banking committee than the house financial services committee on wednesday, and this is his first public remarks since he was re-nominated or nominated to deserve a second term, and since we got the big news, the big market selloff around the omicron virus. what he said in this is very important. he said the recent rise in covid-19 cases and the emergence of the omicron variant pose downside risks to employment and economic activity and increased uncertainty around inflation. he brings up something important in terms of other people aren't willing to go to work.
9:47 pm
that could slow the improvement in the labor market, it could intensify supply chain disruptions. he also says he sees groundcover before the economy reaches maximum employment. he says inflation forces will linger into next year. the remarks don't include anything about the rate hike path, speeding up the taper, that will be left to people who question him on the senate banking committee. janet yellen testified. she said she is confident a recovery remains strong, perhaps echoing joe biden's comments about, don't panic about the variant, it is an issue but everything is going to be fine, if i may paraphrase the president. david: this is not just the fed that is having to grapple with this at this point unanswerable question. what does it mean for other central banks around the world? >> i want to come back to supply chain issues. what if there are restrictions in countries that do, you can't
9:48 pm
go to work or go out and shop? that will hit your economy at a time when inflation is rising. you may have to pull back on steps like the federal reserve talking about speeding up taper, the bank of england supposedly considering a rate hike, european central bank's figuring out how they will slow down the pe pp, the emergency purchases of bonds that started during the pandemic. another problem is everyone says we need more time to figure out what is going on with this so the federal reserve come all the central banks will have to hold back i'll inflation pressures are rising in many countries. look at germany's cpi, up year-over-year, spain's inflation rate up just below that, the highest in three decades. the outlier is the bank of japan governor saying he is quite sure japan's economy would overcome any impact from covid-19, keep growing. he said this hours after the
9:49 pm
news emerged. clearly he is downplaying the risk of the omicron variant, partly because he doesn't have to worry about inflation perhaps and has other concerns now. rishaad: kathleen hays, thank you. let's get to the numbers. moderna saying a new vaccine to fight this strain could be ready by early 2022. the ceo spoke with bloomberg about the outlook on the new variant. >> i definitely think with this threat, it is something we have not seen before. the number of variations, mutations on the virus are surprising. they are not theoretically impossible but extremely rare, so we have to take it for the serious threat it poses. we have a lot better weapons to fight back against it then we did 18 months ago, but i think
9:50 pm
we should always be worried when we are under attack, it is what we do about it that matters. >> what should we do about it and what will moderna do about it? will this strain elude the current vaccine and what are the challenges if that is the case? >> moderna issued a statement friday afternoon with a comprehensive plan that we have prepared for this eventuality. that comprises a bunch of steps. one cried to rapidly era five whether the immune response -- verify whether the immune response a boosted patient receive is sufficient to protect against infection from the omicron variant. that will be known in the next couple weeks. second, we have activated additional tests for multi-variant vaccines we have under testing, in this case the
9:51 pm
original 1273 plus, the beta variant, and the delta. we are in human trials there and we have data and that might be the quick follow line of defense if 1273 alone doesn't do the trick. we have started and we have a program that we think within 60 days or so will take us to a place where we have a fully variant specific, omicron specific vaccine should we needed. i don't think there will be one solution to this. there will be a number of defensive steps we will take to make sure. >> what is the fastest possible timeline that a moderna omicron booster could be available? >> availability to the public is function -- a function of regulatory approval on emergency use and that will be largely determined by the fda, which will look at the data, the facts on the ground, the level of threat and decide how much additional data is needed for
9:52 pm
this sequence variant to be able to allow it to be more broadly available. i think the piece of it we control, we think we are in a position to, based on 10 years of platform development with mrna vaccines, i think we are in an ideal position to respond within the 60 day timeframe. >> talk about the new science involved and what we know about antibodies and antibody levels and how that is informing your work. >> good question, because i think the question of antibody levels is an underexplored, under measured aspect of the pandemic. we talk about antigen testing to see if you have been infected, but what you really want to know is, how strong is the antibody response in your body in response to a vaccine? that is something we have relatively little activity in.
9:53 pm
other than the fact that people are publishing papers, academics are showing strong correlation between antibody levels and vaccine breakthrough, so the hard antibody levels clearly correlate to better protection and of course, the fda is making decisions for booster approval and the like based on antibody levels. i think as we enter the third phase of the pandemic, hopefully it is a serious one but it could be. we need to be mindful of how the virus is burying itself and how our antibody level is at a turn out to protect us. it is those two measurements that have to happen side-by-side and when the manufacturers say we will tell you if the vaccine is effective, we measure antibody levels against the new
9:54 pm
threat and i think that should be more broadly available. we will have to take protection in terms of masks and curtailing travel and separation, but we want to make sure whatever boosters we have we make available to the most vulnerable. yvonne: that was the moderna ceo. our market coverage continues. stay with us. this is bloomberg. ♪
9:55 pm
9:56 pm
david: we are looking at the hang seng index, about 90 minutes into the session. long-term trendline defined from the gfci and the week as we have seen today, 300 points, not taking us below that level. we are into the morning session so we will see what happens. keep it here. you are watching bloomberg. ♪
9:57 pm
so, i started listening to audible about two years ago. a friend of mine recommended a book to me, and i got hooked really fast. and then it kind of just became a lifestyle after that. i've found new authors. i've found new interests. i've found all of these wonderful things. audible has all the entertainment you love. text listen4 to 500500 to get thirty days free. i like thrillers, true crime podcasts, news podcasts... science fiction, space dramas... a lot of classics. i listen almost exclusively to the audible originals. i also think it's pretty special that they get audiobooks that aren't released anywhere else. my friends listen to audible as well. i'll recommend a lot of things to them, especially the new sandman series. you can find things that will take you to new worlds. audible is a great escape. go anywhere you want. endless entertainment and education and content. for the best audio entertainmet and storytelling, text listen4 to 500500 to get thirty days free.
9:58 pm
9:59 pm
>> it's almost 11:00 a.m. in singapore. >> let's have a look at our top stories. asian equities in u.s. futures gaining consent eased about the only coronavirus strain. flagging economic risks and inflation uncertainty. juliette: the official pmi topping 50 as the tower current
10:00 pm
subsides. rishaad: india remaining on track with gdp numbers dropping a bit later on. that as government spending and low interest rates payoff. juliette: we had a fairly dovish day power coming through that's adding to optimism coming through, easing into equity still trying to invest. the impact of the virus. you have flight gains with the china data. november had more working days as well. u.s. futures moving high. we have the dollar stronger against the yen. showing you investors are moving back toward some of these risky assets and that's being reflected by the pickup and yields on the u.s. 10 year as well as significant reshaping in the bond market since this time last week. rishaad: let's get to the open. quickly checking in with this.
10:01 pm
there we go on the upside, nine tents of 1% right now. there is that relief from the general that this undergone coronavirus strain might not be as bad. concerns had beleaguered the currency and risen from seven we close in the country might have to, once again, locked down is crucial in the tourism industry. nifty futures are flat. the ruby losing ground ahead of the key gdp numbers out of the country later on today, hong kong time, looking at their quarter gdp to have expanded a .3%. juliette: let's bring in our guest founder and ceo of hd resource to get his thoughts on how you position amidst all of the changing omicron variant very much unraveling investor sentiment at the end of late last week. we are hoping that it is going to be a mild variance. we still don't know how, but how
10:02 pm
do you position when you have jay powell saying that this is going to add to some of the inflation concerns as well? grexit just concerns our view that inflation is most likely -- everybody is mentioning it in the fact is that parallels have been drawn to the 1970's and this is not the 1970's. we think that this supply chain induced inflation and it will be temporary. the interest rate hike that the market anticipated might be a goal, probably anticipated, and that should up the risk assets in the near term. juliette: that leaves us to the question of the day that we are asking on our mliv blog. we don't see a move of pickup and rates that we are expecting, what does lower rates mean. >> what it means is when you
10:03 pm
look at the equity market, growth stocks will outperform value. the lower interest rates, the lower discount rate of the future. growth will do well. technology should continue to do well. keep in mind that valuations are absolutely off the charts and i would not be too aggressive jumping into stocks that are excelling at 30 times sales. it's quite extreme, but in the near term, the fears of a sharp correction have receded somewhat. rishaad: ultimately, this new variant in this pathogen, are there bigger fish out there is that are there to fry and we should be more worried about? >> it's inflation, it's the fed, it's the fact that their companies are slowing. we can argue that with the debt levels that we have in the world, not only in the u.s., but
10:04 pm
everywhere, at some point, demand will receive in the consumer will go out and spend more and. so that's normalcy aspect. the other thing is, as i said, inflation will be transitory. it will meet demand to pick up or for inflation to pick up. we will see with the federal do about it. interest rates and inflation are the biggest worries. rishaad: we look at the pmi data today from china, we have seen extension -- expansion and it could be a one-off for the working day in november. the thing here is, if there is a slow down, how does that then go into the rest of the world, and is there actually a way of the transmission? what would be the transmission mechanism for that? >> the question is, where are the counterparts.
10:05 pm
take into account evergrande property sectors are very important in china. 29% of gdp. the counterpart is up that much of the contagion effect, and you could have the spill over into the global economy. we think the risk is relatively low. as far as china is concerned with the covid shadow g, you can ensure that economic growth will come down. we are talking about maybe 5% growth next year or less. on the bright side, it will probably have the authorities to do something about topping the policy rate or the reserve requirement rate so chinese equities itself are very, very cheap. it's something we are looking at. rishaad: with all that in mind, dialing back to the federal reserve and dialing back to your comments about inflation, it's
10:06 pm
odd that you are very much interested in seeing a great buying opportunity and the longer dated u.s. treasuries given the sense of why -- give us the sense of why? >> inflation is a transitory thing because it supply chain induced, it's not based on demand. the velocity of money is low, there's no demand in the comparisons to the 1970's are completely misplaced. demographics, populations are older. you have high intent. it's usually a drag on consumption. a you do have the likes of not having the 1970's, which keeps labor costs under control. it keeps it in check. we think inflation rates may start to klein in the middle of 2022. that means long-term interest rates should go lower rather than higher.
10:07 pm
we see a buying opportunity where treasury bonds emerging, which i think will be a big surprise to markets. juliette: you are sticking with us. we want your thoughts on investment opportunities, particularly in this region. getting some breaking lines, this is about china trying to offer better protection of rights for car hailing drivers -- urging car hailing companies to offer drivers social insurance. china issuing guidelines on ensuring car hailing rights. they are requiring car hailing companies will announce its dealings and it's all part of trying to streamline this industry. let's head to new york and get the first word news with vonnie quinn. vonnie: pfizer's ceo said the drugmaker will know within weeks how well the vaccine handles the omicron variant. they told us that even in a worst-case scenario, it showed efficacy against the strain.
10:08 pm
he said that the inoculation designed for the variant should be available within 100 days. >> if the virus escapes the protection of our vaccine after the booster dose, but we need to check it, we have already lost private, started the process of developing tailor-made vaccine. but not only we have very high level of confidence, but we will have it ready within 100 days. but we have very high level of confidence that we can manufacture it by the billions if needed. >> air warning that the coronavirus variant could fuel a fresh surge of infections with zero consequences. there are considerable uncertainties with the new variant, which appears more transmissible than previous strains. south african authorities say children under the age of to account for 10% of total hospital admissions in the
10:09 pm
omicron center. china has pledged to supply another 100 billion vaccine doses to african nations as they grapple with the variant. president xi jinping's at 600 million doses will be donated while the rest will be produced by chinese businesses in african countries. he spoke at the operations where he also pledged $20 billion in credit lines and investments over the next three years. global news, 24 hours a day on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts and more than 120 countries. rishaad: still to come, we have the arrest of macau's selloff in sun city group shares. we will look at the implications of the chinese gambling hub. juliette: japan's crumbling waging and msci global equity benchmark. a new blow for its chronically ranged bound stocks.
10:10 pm
more on that coming up. this is bloomberg. ♪
10:11 pm
10:12 pm
rishaad: your back with bloomberg markets. china's factory had the impact of a power crying subsided with inflation pressures easing. going up to 50.1. the first one in three months that has exceeded that 50 mark. and the dividing line between it and -- expansion. this is this really a rebound, because october had fewer working days in november was a catch up, so it's an odd month to look at. can we draw the conclusion the worst is over in terms of the economy? >> first of all, you are right. november has more working days.
10:13 pm
the headlines are 50. suggesting we are not getting even worse, but probably it's not getting much better either. if you look at more details, it's driven by the supply side, so the production could mean that the government's efforts are trying to increase power supply in stabilizing the prices, those efforts have been taking effect. on the demand, i would say there's not much more on the factors, but we are easing this, but it's too early to say that those downward pressures are going there. juliette: we know there has been a downgrade for china's growth. how do you see the economy performing, and what kind of policy action are you expecting? >> for next year, downward pressure is still going to stay
10:14 pm
in place because those are more related to china's medium-term or long-term targets. they have tight hands on the property markets, trying to control the property bubble, and they are also putting for the d cup and campaign, -- d carbonization campaign, trying to control energy consumption. those targets will states in the year. so it's not going to stare much away from those goals. so these are going to continue to add downward pressure for china's economy next year. so the key would be, what the government is going to do in the short term. in terms of stimulus. how they are going to prevent a slowdown in the economy. we think that the government will set a target between 5% and 6% in our baseline forecast is for the economy to grow 5.7% next year. juliette: bloomberg economic
10:15 pm
economist next year -- economist with us. let's get back to hands getty. we had one positive print. it does not necessarily mean that you are seeing a stronger rebound or recovery coming through in china. we know there is an economic slowdown, how does it play into your factoring of what to expect for commodity markets and how you assess risk? >> the economy is slowing out we see the effects. most commodities are way down from their highs, and i'm afraid it's probably going to continue. you are probably going to see a policy response by the authorities in the light of slower economies accounting the policy rate. and also the option in the reserve climate. i think that's what we can expect there. there is the covid zero strategy that is a headwind to growth,
10:16 pm
and it will depend on how long china will pursue that course. some people say spring, some people say longer. i think it's a pretty big area. juliette: what is it mean in terms of how other asian nations are dealing with the virus. we are starting to see some signs of reopening, then you have japan closing borders from today. is this new virus variant going to threaten the overall recovery across asia? >> we have seen a knee-jerk reaction to the new variant. how it is, we don't know yet. i think that's more or less a question of policy makers doing for shooting first, ask questions later. may be overreacting in the near term by closing borders. this could be a way within two weeks. all other countries have now realized that is better to treat this pandemic as an end to make
10:17 pm
because too much measures do too much damage to the economies across the board. and i will think that we are going to see further easing of these measures because you cannot keep economies closed forever. rishaad: how much pain is being inflicted on the economy. not just for lockdowns and the virus, but this move towards circulation and common prosperity's, also the clampdown on various different industries. >> we have seen clampdown's in many industries. everybody is trying to guess where the next one will come from. some people think easing of these measures. but the truth is that this is a very important year for china and that the succession for 2022. so i think during that time, the chinese government would like to
10:18 pm
probably keep things pretty much under wraps again. probably covid zero strategy should clear the headwind with economic activity. we probably have to live with that for a while. rishaad: thank you for joining us. if you are a bloomberg subscriber, you can check up with all of our interviews by using tv . you can join the chat by sending instant messages during our live programming. this is bloomberg. ♪
10:19 pm
10:20 pm
rishaad: a bit of breaking news from the kospi, raising its gains for this year. the finance index is responsible for this throwback. that is the year to date. boston dollar term -- term losing a .5%.
10:21 pm
-- 8.5%. juliette: a new vaccine to fight the string could be ready by early 2022. if required. they spoke with bloomberg about the outlook on the new variant. >> i definitely think that this threat is something we have not seen before. the number of variations, mutations on this virus are surprising. they are not theoretically possible but extremely rare. we have to think the serious threat that opposes. we have a lot better weapons to fight back against it there we did months ago, but i think we always should be worried when we are under attack. emily: what should we do about it and what will moderna have to do about it. will this strain elude the current vaccine and what are the challenges, if that's the case? >> moderna issued a statement on
10:22 pm
friday afternoon with the comprehensive plan that we already have prepared for this eventuality that comprises a number of steps. one, quite rapidly verify whether the immune response that a boosted patient will receive from our vaccine is sufficient to protect against infections from this omicron variant. that will be known in the next couple of weeks. second, we have activated additional tests for multi variant vaccines that we have already got under testing. in this case, original 1273 plus the delta variant -- the beta variant in the delta. we are already at human trials that we have data. that might be a very quick follow online if this does not do the trick. and then we have already started and set the program that we think within 60 days or so will take place if we have a fully
10:23 pm
variant omicron vaccine should we needed. but i don't think there will be one solution to this, there will be a number of defensive steps we will take to make sure we are fully protected. emily: what's the fastest possible timeline that a moderna omicron booster could be available? >> availability to the public is a functional regulatory approval under emergency use, and that will be largely determined by the fda, which, i'm sure will look on the data, the facts on the ground, the level of threat, and decide how much additional data is needed for this sequence variant to be able to allow it to be more broadly available. i can't speculate on that. i think the piece we control the ceo said we think we are in a position to do based on the 10 years of platform development with mrna vaccines. i think we are in a high yield position to respond within the 60 day timeframe.
10:24 pm
emily: talk to us about the new science involved here and what we know about antibodies and antibody levels, and how that is informing your work. >> it's a very good question. i think the sole question of antibody levels is a very underexplored or under measured aspect of this pandemic. we talked about antigen testing to see if you been infected. what you want to know is how strong is the antibody response in your body in response to a vaccine. that's something that we have relatively little activity in, other than the fact that people are publishing academics that show strong antibodies for vaccine breakthroughs so that the higher antibody levels very clearly correlate to better protection. and of course the fda is making decisions for booster approval and the likes all based on antibodies.
10:25 pm
so i think as we enter this third phase of pandemic, hopefully not a very serious one, but it could well be, we need to be mindful of how the virus is burying itself and how our antibody levels will protect us. it's those two measurements that have to happen side-by-side. and when all the manufacturers have said for the next two weeks we will tell you our vaccine is still effective, essentially will be by measuring antibody levels against the new threat. i think that should be more broadly available because, let's face it, if we have a big threat, we will have to take protection in terms of mass, separation and curtailing travel. importantly, we will want to make sure whatever boosters we have will make available to the most vulnerable. juliette: that was moderna ceo talking to emily chang. let's look at the business flash headlines in a media report says
10:26 pm
strategic investors set up a private equity fund to inject cash. they cite the business data registration for the report. it said private equity has registered capital of $2.3 billion. their troubles emerged in march when it delayed its annual report, raising concerns over some $242 billion in liability. fantasia group has received investor approval to delay early redemption of 730 million yuan local bond by two years. it showed the principal amount demanded by bondholders was originally due on monday. the company will pay 20% of the annual interest payment incurred in the past year on tuesday, with the remainder due next november. rishaad: let's get over to the markets as we head for the china break. just at the moment, seeing a gain having to take the brunt of what's going on there with citigroup following the rest of their ceo and ramifications for
10:27 pm
the whole industry. 40% down. chinese markets looking make this as we head to the lunch break in the mixed shanghai trump is it. mom, hurry! our show's gonna start soon! i promised i wouldn't miss the show and mommy always keeps her promises. oh, no! seriously? hmm! it's not the same if she's not here. oh. -what the. oh my goodness! i don't suppose you can sing, can you? ♪ the snow's comin' down ♪ -mommy? ♪ i'm watching it fall ♪ watch the full story at www.xfinity.com/sing2
10:28 pm
10:29 pm
>> i wouldn't expect this to change their opinion on what's happening in local economies with labor market still tied. in the near term, the disinflationary effects of a resurgence in the virus would be larger than the inflationary ones and things like supply constraints. >> if there is going to be a repeat of the winter lock downs or lack of ability, then it would be a surprise if central banks continued on course. instead, more likely, they will delay the pace or the start of their training process.
10:30 pm
>> is not surprising that it's like this. >> the variant is already in there. trying to impose the federal ban now is taking the band off. >> investors will count this before moving again. rishaad: some key market participants giving their reactions to this new variant of the coronavirus right here on bloomberg. it's the one that has caused a lot of concern. you saw it happen on friday. generally speaking, people are taking it in stride. juliette: we still obviously know that it's going to take a couple more weeks for countries and medical officials to really know the extent of the virus. but the rule of worry amongst investor sentiments have seem to have abated. we have more upside coming through an equity markets. particularly being booted by the better-than-expected manufacturing index signaling
10:31 pm
expansion in november in china. you do have weakness in hong kong. you are mentioning casino players. officer yuan up by two tents of 1%. we are watching the dollar fairly steady there. we start to see some of these omicron fears easing. that's have a look at airline stocks. nine sessions of losses. you are seeing rebound as there is hope that christmas will not be canceled. the maker of those latex gloves that have been used in the pandemic fell the most on record. still coming a little bit under pressure today in the malaysian session. watching very closely, sun city ceo was arrested by macau police. hong kong technology venture also stumbling after it issued a profit warning. rishaad: let's get to fed chair jerome powell on the very subject about this variant and how it poses a risk for both side of the central banks dual mandate.
10:32 pm
with stable prices on the others to have maximum employment. kathleen hays, people are asking , is he becoming more dovish than anticipated? sure he's being a realist. kathleen: he's maintaining the same ground he has had for some time, which is, inflation is persistent, now it will ease. the labor market has room to go, and we should be patient. jay powell is getting ready for two days of testimony, that's why the prepared remarks for the senate were released late today in the u.s. tomorrow, janet yellen will be testifying as well. this is the first of the remarks since the omicron variant suddenly hit the markets and hit the world. in the first time he has spoken since president biden has nominated him to be reappointed for a second term. inflation is a concern, jobs are a concern, that's what you can see in the first part of the downside risk of employment
10:33 pm
increasing. in greater concerns about the virus could reduce this in person. people won't want to work at home again, that could slow the progress of people going back to the labor markets, looking for jobs and intensify supply chain disruptions. two things not only hurting the economy, but pushing up inflation. he says he sees ground to cover to reach maximum employment. he sees factors pushing up in inflations linger well into next year. unlike other fed bank presidents, he is not even beginning to talk about speeding up taper. we will have to leave that to the q&a for the senate banking committee tomorrow. janet yellen, and her prepared remarks, has not set as much as chair powell. she expects a strong recovery to continue in echoing president biden's remarks saying don't panic over this virus. things are still on track.
10:34 pm
julia: it's not just the fed, it's also central banks, and what is this mean for central bankers around the world? kathleen: let's include jay powell. what's happening is the omicron variant turns out in two weeks or four weeks, however long it takes to have greater effects than the initial reactions out of south africa are showing in terms of mild cases, what if we have big lockdowns, exacerbating the supply chain issues. this is the time federal reserve is looking at speeding up the pace of taper. the bank of england is meeting in december, and they are supposed to be looking at a rate hike in the ecb is trying to figure out how to start tapering its emergency bond purchases. besides exasperating the supply chain issues and potential lockdowns, there is a case that they will have to wait a while to figure out what's going on.
10:35 pm
that will further delay anymore aggressive response of inflation. look at the german cpi out today , up 6% year-over-year. this is as the ecb continued to say, don't worry about it, it will be transitory. governor kuroda, the governor of the bank of japan, also spoke in the last 24 hours. his view is that he sure japan's economy could overcome the impact of the covid-19 impact. surely he is responding to the growth aspect. he thinks it will keep growing in recovery could continue. he does not has to -- he does not have to worry about inflation because japan is struggling to experience a bit more of that. juliette: global economic and policy editor kathleen hays with us in new york. let's talk about japan's global equity benchmark that seems to be crumbling advising continuing to strike the japanese stocks. the country stocks now account for under 6% of the old country
10:36 pm
road index, threatening a further drop in foreign interest in the world's third-largest equity market. let's get more with our tech stock reporter. why is this happening and what does it really mean for japan equity. >> one of the reasons this is happening is because of japan's continued underperformance against other developed markets, mainly at the u.s. equities. this is because foreign investors are preferring better growth specs, which are business sensitive and sensitive to economic outlook. japan is quite heavy of these cyclical stocks. so investors have been shunning japanese equity, which has resulted in ms eias continued reducing with waiting on japanese equities. rishaad: someone described it as
10:37 pm
a body blow, haven't they? what kind of an impact is likely , with regards to this? it's also a kick in the face that japan's price? >> right. this is particularly negative, because what it means to be neutral and japanese equities is being lowered. that means naturally as investors adjust their portfolios, will have to further reduce their exposure to japanese equities, and you can expect more outflow of foreign funds from japanese equities. this is bad because japan has been shunned from foreign investors for a wild. foreign investors have a bit of doubt against the administration's policy that could potentially leave further negative impression about japanese equities, and it will take more time for investors to restore their confidence in their interest in japanese equities. especially with the new virus
10:38 pm
variant or spreading economic recovery. there are a lot of uncertainties around the outlook. rishaad: let's turn now to beijing where data released earlier may inspire a little bit of confidence. that's get the first renews. vonnie quinn is in new york. >> improving in november as the impact of the power crunch supplies with inflation pressures. it rose to 50.1. that's the first time in three months they marked the signals with expansion and production. the nonmanufacturing gauge measuring -- fell slightly became an at 52.3. japan's factory production edges up in october following a three-month slide with quantitative easing before the
10:39 pm
emergence of the virus variant. production rose 1.1% from september, although economists had 1.9% gain. it continued strength with unemployment going down to 2.7%. jack dorsey is stepping down as ceo. he will stay on the social media firms board until his term expires next year. he also is being replaced at twitter by the chief technology officer, a leading figure in twitter's effort to create a decentralized standard for social media. sweden's first female prime minister has been reelected after narrowly winning. social democrats under the one-party government -- prompted by her resignation. she stepped down as prime minister hours after being appointed on her partner quit.
10:40 pm
global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm vonnie quinn. this is bloomberg. juliette: coming up next on bloomberg markets: asia, we preview the india gdp data with goldman sachs. that's next. this is bloomberg. ♪
10:41 pm
10:42 pm
juliette: you are watching bloomberg markets: asia. india's gdp rose back to its pre-pandemic level in the july and september time, rebounding from the slump in the previous quarter, which was caused by a massive second wave of covid-19 infections. rishaad: acceleration next year of growth thanks to consumption coming back. goldman sachs seeing india economists. thank you for joining us. spending -- government spending on top of things with the expectation on a .3% growth in the third quarter. what's your view of this and if it's even sustainable. >> we are looking at a .3% growth in q3 of 2021.
10:43 pm
that is going to be primarily driven by consumption coming back to a trend. if you see horrible consumption, demand has been stronger. air passenger traffic is coming back closer to push pre-covert levels, so his control consumption. the way we track it is through our el i, which is the proprietary measure of restrictions. that is doing much better than q3 that at the end of q2. primarily that was driven by the second wave of covid. as you put all that together, we are looking at consumption, you're on and 8.5%. you are looking at investment closer to 9%. as you said, government expenditure is expected to be higher as you go into the end of q3 and in q4, on words as well. because taxes have been running
10:44 pm
ahead of estimates and spending was held back earlier. so that boost is expected to come true in the next two quarters. rishaad: when we look ahead, the many tailwinds have higher commodity prices with oil amongst other things including, may be we are making too much of it, but this new variant of the coronavirus. >> with respect to the new variant, it's too early to incorporate anything into our forecast. so we will be watching this very closely and seeing where this goes. there are multiple issues. how much is the transfer rate, what happens to mortality and hospitalizations and so on. on the basis of that, we will take a call on how this could impact economic activity. on the commodity side, especially for oil, what we go
10:45 pm
with this for every $10 increase in oil prices. the deficit widens by $15 billion roughly. that have been the impact. we are looking at the deficit moving from 0.9% gdp in 2021 to 1.5% of gdp in 2022, both due to the effect of higher oil prices in the economic open. your nonoil, non-go imports are more reflective on domestic activity will be expanding. and that put together is putting our forecast higher at -1.5% of gdp in 2022. juliette: what happens if this variant does derail? we have already seen india bring back in 17 days of quarantine, and what will that mean for
10:46 pm
policymakers? what are you expecting the rbis to do in 2022? >> as i said earlier, it is too early to talk about this new variant. we are watching this space very, very carefully, and we are watching what's happening globally and we will see what's happening in india, and what the governments posts are. on the rbi, i will take a step back and talk about inflation. that is going to determine what the rbi does over the course of next year. on inflation, we are expecting it to be higher in 2022 at five point 8% average versus 5.2% average in 2021, primarily driven by go inflation remaining elevated almost 6% pretty much through the whole of next year. the reason is that input cost increases from the manufacturers cost on consumers over an amount of time as the economy reopens in pricing power comes back.
10:47 pm
even that, we are expecting the rbi to continue the liquidity tightening going on now in higher it by 40 basis points. thereafter, we are expecting three hikes of 25 basis points in q2, q3 and q4 of 2022, cumulative 27 basis points of rate hikes in 2022. juliette: let's talk about prime minister modi's retreat. is goldman sachs expecting any other economic concerns in the wake of this? >> what we would say is that if it had been implemented, it would have been positive and the longer term for inflation. we would have had inflation probably come down in the longer term. but in the near term, we are not seeing any impact on inflation. as i said, it will come back and
10:48 pm
fell inflation will stay higher over the course of next year. in any case, the impact is not built into our inflation forecasts as we look one year or two years out. on inflation, it will remain at 58 average over the course of the whole of next year. juliette: a quick word as well. you have forecast for a revival in the housing space. that would be one positive spine you would -- positive sign you would expect for the economy. >> if you look at data from fiscal year 12 to fiscal year 20, india's investment of the gdp fell by six percentage points. three fourths of that was explained by the fallen household investment, which is investment in housing. we think the conditions are quite conducive for housing, market revival now. if you look at inflation's in housing prices, that was about 25% average.
10:49 pm
if you look at the rbis housing price index in the earlier part of last decade, which is around 2% to 3% now, we think invest the sales ratio have come down. we know home loan rates, due to the abundantly loose monetary conditions are at all-time lows. all of this should be conducive for housing markets revival in -- especially in the big cities. rishaad: thank you so much for joining us. goldman sachs seeing india economist. let's have a look at the markets that opened about four minutes ago. they are checking in with their performance. they are in the green and following the regional trend. that positive close we had at the end of the session. monday, 250 day interest rate recovery. resistance at around these
10:50 pm
levels. you see how that all pans out. that's according to a technical analyst. a lot more on the way. this is bloomberg. ♪
10:51 pm
juliette: we are tracking the fallout of the global supply chain crunch, and these other top stories. one of the world's biggest ocean
10:52 pm
carriers is dangling incentives with 200 dollars per container to clear the backlog of southern california sports. cma cgm group will offer importers $100 for each container removed from ports of los angeles and long beach during daytime hours in the first eight days of arrival. president joe biden says his demonstration has made strides towards relieving u.s. supply chain disruptions. he met monday with the leaders of major retailers, including walmart, to ensure them they have ample inventory for the holiday season of multilateralism. focusing on automakers, this chart illustrates the impact of bottlenecks on the sector. the ratio of industry to sales among distributors have some holding to its lowest readers suggesting that manufacturers are making cars fast enough to meet demands. bloomberg intelligence sees better days ahead. it's report sees chip supplies steadying in sales picking up as
10:53 pm
more carmakers shift to a profitable ev technology. bloomberg readers can learn more in our newsletter. it's on and i trade nl. rishaad: let's have a look at this as a makes an $18 billion investment to turn a dv models into a pillar of long-term growth. the japanese vehicle maker has been growing at a good pace despite the uncertainty of the pandemic, as well as the joke -- as well as the global chip crunch. >> the situation of the pandemic and the supply shortage are very much in the industry. so how we can anticipate to be ready for the opportunity will be key for us. so far, our company worries about to manage this fy 21 of our outlook, and we are steadily growing and doing progress at the right pace. definitely, we need to walk with
10:54 pm
the partner supplier to make sure supply chain is going to recover in terms of this semiconductor, which is something that we need to anticipate for sure. stephen: how specifically are you concerned by this new variant, omicron? >> this is something i would like to make the right level of the company care to our employee, to the family, to the farmer, how we can make sure to continue to do so in the company, and moving our business. again, i would say we need to anticipate many cases, and we have to make sure that our business is going to run at the right pace, despite the uncertainty or the new virus coming. so this is something that we are discussing a lot in our business to make sure to force our employee in the family of their
10:55 pm
safety and the help that has to be taking care of the company. we put a lot of priority and forecast onto that. stephen: let's shift our focus to this big $18 billion, ¥2 trillion investment schedule over the next five years or so to electrify about half your fleet by 2030. how do you plan to fund this ¥2 trillion investment in ev's? >> well, we are planning this 2013 ambition, this is where we want to be, what we are aiming for, we want to make sure to provide safer, cleaner, inclusive world and make our company is better proposition. as you mentioned, the ¥2 trillion of the investment is quite huge, but we are investing up until today at the one trillion level.
10:56 pm
definitely, we are talking about the product portfolio shift more onto the electrified vehicle, where that investment in new electrified vehicle investment could balance that out. while we will keep the momentum of the nissan, which means the revenue enhancement with the new vehicle. all of this balance, i am very confident that we can make this future investment while we are growing our company. juliette: that was nissan ceo speaking to stephen engle. we are getting lines about reliance capital. this was after the i.b. -- rbis seized the shadow bank. we are seeing reliance capital slump by the daily limit after the rbi takeover. this was following a series of default. another blow for the billionaire who has been battling creditors and is facing personal bankruptcy. rishaad: we are heading to the
10:57 pm
lunchtime brink in hong kong. over 1%, it means that the hang seng is at its lowest since 2020. it is down 13% on the year. daybreak middle east is next. ♪
10:58 pm
10:59 pm
11:00 pm
>> from the heart of where innovation, money and power collide, in silicon valley and beyond, this is bloomberg technology with emily chang. emily: i'm emily chang in san francisco and this is "bloomberg technology." coming up, #steppingdown. jack dorsey resigns as ceo of twitter.

24 Views

info Stream Only

Uploaded by TV Archive on