tv Bloomberg Markets Bloomberg December 1, 2021 1:00pm-2:00pm EST
uphold mississippi's ban on the procedure after 15 weeks of pregnancy. in any argument that lasted almost two hours, all six conservative justices indicated they would let states start banning abortion far earlier than the court's president -- presidents had allowed. a sophomore is in custody after opening fire in his michigan school killing three teens and injuring eight other people. police are still trying to figure out the motive for the oxford township shooting. the sheriff's department set the teen used a pistol his father bought last week. the u.s. cdc ordered airlines to provide the names of passengers arriving in the u.s. who have traveled to southern africa in recent days. this comes as the cdc assesses the potential spread of the
omicron variant of the coronavirus. the cdc told carriers that must provide the information to allow for contact tracing. llama chron variant was discovered in southern africa but evidence has emerged it was present in europe the days before the first reported cases. in the battle against the coronavirus, the unvaccinated our increasingly targeted. germany and israel are moving closer to making covid-19 shots compulsory. in greece, the government is mandating them for anyone 60 or older for each month they don't get a shot, they face a 100 euro fine. osher plans to impose mandatory vaccinations with fines as high as 7200 euros. spain has banned travelers from the u.k. who are not fully vaccinated. global news 24 hours a day on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am mark crumpton.
this is bloomberg. ♪ >> it is 1:00 p.m. in new york. i'm matt miller, welcome to " number markets. -- looking to "bloomberg markets". chair jerome powell says price pressures are on the rise. janet yellen discuss what we learned with neil dutta. oil is paring gains and opec kicks off the first day of two days of debate, a planned output increase. we will discuss what we learned that they are and what to expect ahead. the who's chief scientist says
the vaccines will likely protect against severe cases of the new omicron variant. we will discuss the commentary that is bringing some calm back to markets. a quick check of what is going on in terms of the numbers. we are in rally mode with the s&p 500 up 1.1%. still not making back what we lost yesterday friday -- yesterday and friday. it looks like the market is better prepared for jerome powell's hawkish tidbit. market shares at 144.94. the u.s. dollar index is unchanged at a relatively high level of 1182. only $.57 to 6675 a barrel -- 66.75 a barrel. something that caught my eye is the turkish lira, the central
bank intervening in foreign exchange markets. the lira initially strengthened on the news but has given back some of those gains. you can currently purchase 13.7 5 -- 13.25 lira for a dollar. bloomberg news is reporting the sales were around $1 billion worth. the lira has lost more than 30% since turkey started cutting interest rates in september, its most recent cutting moves. the president of turkey believes that lower rates will help bring down inflation. he is one of the few people who thinks that way. turning now to washington, d.c., janet yellen and jay powell just wrapped up their testimony before the house financial services committee. during the testimony, chair powell says the risks of persistent inflation have risen. >> i would say the inflation we
are seeing is still clearly connected to pandemic related factors. i would add that it has spread more broadly in the economy and the risk of persistent higher inflation has clearly risen. matt: i am pleased to bring in neil dutta of renaissance macro research. i would love to get your take on what to looks like a hawkish tidbit from the fed chair -- a hawkish pivot from the fed chair. neil: it sounds like he is pivoting. he has communicated early and open with the markets. he has made it a staple of his tenure as chair. i don't think there are any hidden messages there. frankly, this brings the fed more in line with the underlying state of the economy. had the fed not done anything,
they would look outside at the data as it comes in. we are seeing strong jobs growth. powell mentioned -- yes, this is about car prices and the reopening sectors, but it is increasingly about things unrelated to the pandemic like rental inflation. we know that home prices are strong. inventories for homes are low. the demand is pretty firm. that will put upper pressure on rental inflation. matt: i have been studying the housing market, prices are healthy. there is not a lot of inventory coming on the market. there typically is not at the end of november negative december -- end of november and beginning of december. i wonder what you think about what looks like to conspiracy theorists as a push.
we have a new variant and then the fed pushes hawkish on inflation. will this change expectations? neil: i don't think energy prices are something the fed will look at. they will look at it, but when i look at inflation, that is not how i think of it. it is unlikely anybody is getting fired because of what is going on with the new variant. the reason is that the economy bounced back with each wave and has held up during the waves. if you go back to december and january, we have negative jobs growth during that wave. jobs growth was relatively strong all things considered. the economy has been holding up. what does the drop in oil prices mean? it is a windfall for households, a household budget constraint. that gives households more money to go spend elsewhere.
driving up the prices for goods and services. just looking at it as a headline , retail gas prices are going to decline. you cannot think about these things in a vacuum. what ultimately drives inflation is a household budget constraint. when i look at the product of jobs, the workweek, and hourly earnings, that number has been growing 12.5% at an annual rate over the last six months. that is phenomenal. everything else is background noise. matt: the economy is doing really well. a colleague wrote a good piece on how fat profit margins have been, the strongest since the 1950's. what is your expectation for actual moves from the fed? bringing the taper forward to the first quarter and then a couple of great hikes next year? -- rate hikes next year? neil: i think that is a
reasonable expectation for 2022. it will be an interesting tension in the inflation data because inflation will moderate at some point starting in the second quarter of next year. i do think it will stay from her that -- will stay more firm than estimates. i think the fed is going to be revising up their estimates for inflation over the next several months. there is a knee-jerk reaction every time they get the call wrong. that has not been working out. frankly, a lot of the arguments for why inflation is going slow does not stand up to scrutiny. we talk about housing. you look at mortgage applications, they are rising when inventory is low and prices are firm. while -- why will there be a big collapse? i just don't see that. matt: you should get a mortgage
now before rates go up, right? neil: the fact that people are still willing to buy homes even though prices are firm is an interesting tell. if demand for homes is going up, obviously we filled the house with stuff. we are talking about single-family resident -- single-family real estate. if you are buying a house, you are buying a car. it is not a surprise that you will see a decline in durable goods. they may moderate, but it is unlikely they become the dragon people have made them out to be. matt: i am about to buy a house, a car, and a washing machine. these things take time. when i talk to dealers, they don't expect the supply chain to be back on track until another 12 to 18 months and that has been a big part of the problem. how long do you expect that to work out? neil: i don't think most of us
have good insight into when it is back to normal. what i can tell you is it is likely to improve and not get worse. the supply chain equivalents will continue between now and the foreseeable future, primarily because covid is likely to come under more control. we hit a hick up with this new variant. generally speaking, do look at mobility metrics in the emerging economies. they remain high. factories are operating in that part of the world, in the early read on the supply chain. i think that will continue to provide relief for the global manufacturing sector. matt: thank. . you so much for joining us i really -- thank you so much for joining us. that is neil dutta talking to us about the fed and inflation. speaking of supply chain, president biden right now is speaking at the white house
about the supply chain, talking with the various corporate leaders about how he sees it. he says prices are rising around the world, it is not just a u.s. issue. that is true in germany, we had a 6% jump in cpi. he is talking about the new covid variant, the omicron variant. he says it is a cause for concern but not panic, repeating remarks he has made multiple times. you can follow all of what he is saying on the bloomberg terminal. this -- just type live go. oriole paring gains is opec reps of the first day of meetings. will day or want to they release more supply -- or won't they release more supply into the markets that has seen a slump in bear oil? this is bloomberg. ♪
matt: this is "bloomberg markets." the opec meeting ended with no decision on output policy amid a surge in volatility, a bear market in some oil contracts. we will have to wait until they reconvene tomorrow to get news. let's get a little guidance right now and bring in will kennedy who runs our energy coverage globally. it is interesting they would consider raising output at a time when we have seen brent drop from 80 and change into the 60's. is it possible? will: most people are thinking they may pause their plans for production increase. i think they meetings are very open and there are options on
the table. most people are talking about a pause in production. things they had not expected before, the omicron virus. they are under the pressure from u.s. consumers. we have had this big drop and i think a lot of the conversation will be about pausing and taking stock. matt: they have pressure from president biden and other national leaders to produce more oil. at the same time, we have a lot of countries talking about releasing strategic reserves. where do we stand in terms of supply meeting demand? rather than market prices which are driven by fear of new covid variants? will: a lot of people in opec have said they expect the surplus in the third quarter to
peak. you get that data between the winter heating season and the summer driving season, that tends to be a time of soft demand. there are a lot of people in opec want to take a cautious outlook, especially with the future of the pandemic so unclear. those voices have become stronger over the last few weeks. the other thing is that there are a lot of people in opec who were angry about joe biden's actions and his supply response. they feel the market is not in crisis and they were being -- and they were employing emergency tools and a time that does not deserve it. there are a lot of people who are saying if the u.s. is going to put this in the market should we be raising production? there are conversations happening. what we may see is some kind of pause or even an outside chance
of a cut being discussed. matt: we want to use less of this stuff, right? we were over the glasgow coverage. don't we want to stop using so much fossil fuel? wasn't president biden behind that? will: as someone once said, lord make me chaste, but not quite yet. matt: [laughter] will: maybe in the long-term, but in the short-term gas is the story and boiled is the story. there is a desperation to get gas prices down. the scale we have seen in the last week or so means that prices at the pump would probably start to take -- to tic k down. matt: it is not just about us is at the pump. one of the concerns is that heating costs for a lot of people will be going very high.
for low to moderate wage earners, this makes up a big part of their budget. already drops we have seen over the last three trading sessions going to get them any relief? will: probably a little bit of relief. we see the natural gas market come off over the last few days as we have had the forecast for warmer weather. i think some of that intense pressure on the heating markets may abate a different story. we are seeing a lot of power prices go higher and higher. the energy crunch is in full swing in europe. matt: that is something we will continue to cover. thank you for joining us. will kennedy is the executive editor for energy and commodities. china plans to close a loophole allowing firms to go public abroad. we have expected them to make this kind of move. what could that mean for companies like bytedance which operates tiktok?
matt: this is "bloomberg markets." bloomberg learned china is causing a loophole that companies used to go public here. it is one of beijing's biggest steps to shut down on four listings. when i say here, i mean america. for more insight, i want to bring in and round, bloomberg's new editorial director. these new entities can ostensibly be used anywhere in the western world. if they want to go public in berlin, it would be difficult, but london or amsterdam. for the most part, new york is where they are going to raise funds and that will not be able to happen in the same way.
andrew: right. this is a structure that has enabled foreign investors to invest in areas of the chinese economy that are technically off-limits. that will include media, telecommunications, and the internet. it is a structured loophole that has been exploited by something like 300 chinese companies over the last decade who cumulatively have raised $82 billion in u.s. markets. this is a big deal if china closes that loophole. it also raises questions about companies that have already listed in the u.s. under that structure and what happens to them. that includes alibaba, tencent, most of the big internet companies in china. matt: not bytedance. we don't know what they are going to do. this is no longer a door open to them. andrew: exactly. it raises so many questions.
if this happens, if regulators do what we think they are going to do and close off this loophole, it is going to be another milestone in the decoupling of the u.s. and chinese economies. don't forget the flow of chinese companies to the u.s. markets has already been halted because chinese regulators don't want data rich chinese companies listing in the u.s. for national security reasons -- regions and u.s. companies don't want regulators here until they have resolved the dispute over ordering them to give access to their books. you have policy in china now designed -- china wants to make more of its own products in china. in the u.s., on the right and the left, you have a similar desire to bring supply chains back to the u.s.
you have the preconditions for the world's two largest economies to started drifting apart even more than they already are. matt: if they don't drift apart or in the places where they are held together, you seem to be present. you had a fantastic conference in singapore at the new economy forum. tell us how that went, especially during the all new we are operating in. you had world leaders and is this leaders meeting face-to-face -- and world leaders meeting face-to-face. andrew: it turns out that world politicians and ceos want to get back on the road again. they want to get together and make deals. we talked a lot about climate. our event occurred a few days after cop 26. what we heard were these grandiose pledges by government leaders. what we wanted to do in singapore was said that is all well and good, we need to turn some of that high-level promise
into practical projects. we put together coalitions of bankers and ceos and government officials and put them into rooms together and started to hammer out real deals that will be able to turn -- be able to move the needle on climate change. matt: if there is a fly on the wall, you are it. i always appreciate you joining us. andrew brown is the new editorial director. you can check out economics on what is driving the economy and what it means for policymakers, the businesses that brought together. sign up for that at bloomberg.com. coming up, applied materials on the rise. ♪
they also voiced their support for democracy on the island, sparking outcry from china's embassy. it issued a statement saying the lawmakers were condemnable and grossly interfered in china's internal affairs, undermining china's sovereignty and territorial integrity. more cases of the omicron variant are popping up. japan, saudi arabia and australia all reported finding cases of the recently detected coronavirus strain. president biden is expected to announce new testing requirements for all travelers to the united states and japanese airlines have all been new inbound bookings for this month. the world health organization's chief scientist says vaccines will likely protect against severe cases of the new omicron variant of covid. who is expecting more data on omicron transmission within days. the organization warns a blanket
travel ban want stop the spread of the new variant. global news 24 hours a day on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i'm mark crumpton. this is bloomberg. amanda: i'm amanda lang. welcome to bloomberg markets. matt: i'm matt miller. here are the top stories we are following for you from around the world. fed chair jay powell testifies for a second day. we will speak with david rubenstein, co-chair and cofounder of the carlyle group to get his thoughts on inflation as the chairman reiterates his move to declare more quickly.
plus the who says the current shots will likely protect against severe cases with a new strain as it tries to ease the public sphere. with omicron also affecting oil prices, we will take a look at how the variant is impacting opec's meeting as they consider the possibility of raising or cutting production. amanda: that is one asset class that has not rebounded. stocks having a much better day today. coming off the highs as the session goes along. we didn't get the positive finished by the end of the day. iou a dollar although it is a canadian dollar so it's $.78. we are seeing gauged financials, utilities. big tech is doing ok. middle of the cat -- middle of
the pack. the yield unchanged today. lots of questions about what's going on in the direction of rates and we have been talking about the fact that stocks not the only ones regaining a little bit. oil cutting into its own rally. opec will meet days of meetings today and tomorrow. the variant came along so they may want to go the other way. it's difficult to guess what opec is thinking until we hear from them. matt: there will always be new variance coming along let's get to the stock of the hour. the semiconductor industry has seen high blame over supply
chain slowdowns although what can they really do. citigroup has found a way to raise targets. dave wilson is taking a look. is this the last time you're going to do stock of the hour with me? >> that would be true. matt: let's talk about you. 30 years at bloomberg and today is your final day. what are you going to do? >> i have plans. the thing is i don't have everything planned and don't need to at this point. taking some time to figure out what's next is the beauty of it. i do want to get back to applied materials. it's an interesting story. if got citigroup raising their projections. that basically just puts them above average when it comes to the analysts we surveyed at bloomberg. this is the stock that has
really taken off ever since late last year. you see it in terms of this year's performance. third biggest gain in the philadelphia semiconductor index. this comes even though one applied materials had earnings out, they weren't exactly happy with their forecast. they are having challenges in getting the materials they need in order to make the equipment. stock fell in the wake of those results. there analysts anticipating there is going to be slower growth in revenue for the coming fiscal year. you have to take a step back and look at what's going on in the industry and realize why people would be optimistic.
samsung electronics is increasing. in terms of capital investment in the next three years. and intel plans on $28 billion of spending next year alone. those plans clearly provide opportunities to do more business, maybe gain a little market share. amanda: we have seen applied materials struggling with supply chain issues. is there hope on that front for them? >> you can say that more broadly. you look at the latest numbers out of the u.s. for supply management we are talking about prices paid, sort of an inflation gauge. order backlogs, deliveries.
all those numbers coming down in november suggesting that things are using when it comes to companies abilities to get supplies and maybe not play a whole lot more for them. it may turn out that the chip industry and the chip equipment industry as well are among the beneficiaries of that trend. matt: let's get back to the bigger story here. i've been working with you for 21 years now. i think i took courses from you when i first joined this great organization. we do radio shows and television shows together. what has been your best experience? are you taking away from bloomberg lp? >> just so much. the ability to fill all these rules. reporter, editor, columnist,
training manager. radio and now finally television. it's been such a breadth of experience and it's something i don't think i could have managed to put together anywhere else. i'm grateful for everything over the decades. i feel like i'm going out on a high note here. amanda: i want to chime in because we haven't worked together as long. what you do on tv and radio is the icing on top of the work you do. we are the beneficiaries. your charts of the day have been a highlight for me for a long time. going to miss them. congratulations on being amazing at what you do and a well-deserved retirement. >> thank. there is a plan to keep the charts going. they may not look the same or be the same. when tom keene started doing
chart of the day in the mid to thousands, you didn't see them much at all. now they are ubiquitous. it may just be a matter of picking out the best chart from the terminal on a daily basis. i'm grateful to have had the privilege to put together all those charts and be able to provide the information to people here and everywhere. matt: you definitely are going out on a high note. it's been great working with you. dave wilson without stock of the hour, chart of the day, capping an career here at bloomberg. we will speak with david rubenstein. the advice that diane von furstenberg has for women entrepreneurs. the experience that she has in this retail environment will all be interesting. i would love to get david's take
>> i think the most important thing in life is the relationship you have with yourself once you have a good relationship with yourself, any other relationship is a plus. the second is to be as true to yourself as you possibly can. and it's not easy and you have to accept and own things you may not like. the more you can be you, the happier you will be. amanda: this is bloomberg
markets. that of course is the iconic diane von furstenberg. on the advice she would give young women entrepreneurs. david rubenstein. always good to have you with us. she's such an icon in so many different categories. she's an icon in multiple. you have interviewed so many people like this. can somebody really convey their brand of success to others or is it so personal that it's hard to apply elsewhere? >> i think the autobiography business would die if people didn't think you could learn something from these other people. people write autobiographies all the time and people buy them because they think some of it will rub off. obviously everybody is different
and individual. mentors have ideas that rub off on other people. in diane von furstenberg's case, she's iconic in several areas. she invented the wrap dress in the 1970's. she has become a very well-known philanthropist helping to restore the statue of liberty and ellis island and she's very involved in highline as well. she was responsible for getting highline built in new york. very involved in philanthropy. i think she's an iconic person for another reason. because she's a believer in women being more empowered than they have historically been. she wanted to be a man in a woman's body which is to have the rights and ability of a man to get eggs done in society but be a woman.
matt: i wonder how you view this move toward gender equality, diversity and inclusion. your career spans from the 70's as a lawyer to an advisor and you worked with a few white houses and then founding carlyle group's. you have seen the first parent or the second of a big push for gender equality and now we are in a third era. how do you see that evolution? >> president carter made a big push to get more women. there had hardly been any women being on the bench. think back on it. president kenny who i admired -- kennedy who i admired greatly, president johnson i don't think had any women in his cabinet. you are seeing a real evolution so people believe women should be on corporate boards, ceos,
entrepreneurs. it's a completely different world from the world i grew up in was a young adult in 30 or 40 years ago. amanda: i'm curious for your thoughts on what we witnessed. to the idea that the fed may be ready to raise rates sooner rather than later which seems sort of an obvious idea in some ways. are these markets terribly overvalued? >> the markets have seemed overvalued to most investment professionals for some time that people have been unable to resist finding good investments are more pricey than we would like. people have forgotten things like recessions and gigantic market corrections of more than a couple days or so. i think jay powell was trying to say yesterday is everything is a little bit different than it was a year ago and now if we go into another covid period because of
the new strain we are probably more worried now because of inflation. inflation appears to be much higher than we want it to be. we are beginning to taper and i suspect most people in the markets now belief there will be an interest rate increase at some point next year. not in 2023 as the fed previously indicated be the case. matt: it strikes me that we are freaked out about inflation that's 5% or 6%. the markets are worried that the fed could raise rates to 50 to 75 basis points. meanwhile we were looking at double digits for both of those rates. what was the market reaction like then and what can we learn from what we saw and apply it to now when we are seeing things on a much smaller basis?
>> that time we had double-digit inflation and interest rates were double digits as well. that was due to a number of factors. opec had much more influence in the world. our economy was very much union focused. 25% of the workforce was unionized. today it's less than half of that. another factor is that the economy is global. so many of our products come into the united states at much lower prices and as a result inflation is not likely to ever get back to double digits in my lifetime. i do think you make a good point. we have been used to 2% inflation. it goes for one month or another month at 6% it's obviously three times as big. everybody gets nervous. the real inflation is probably closer to 3%.
if you go back to standard economics textbooks the 1960's were beyond, that's what most people thought was normal inflation. we then went to 2% and now anything above 2% seems abnormal. i suspect the fed will not creased -- increase interest rates. i suspect you will see at least one increase in 2022 and not wait until 2023. jay powell is doing a pretty good job of conditioning the market for this expectation. amanda: great to have you. you will want to hear more of that conversation with diane von furstenberg. she is on his show tonight. we are watching stocks hitting session lows potentially on this news. a case of omicron has been
identified in the u.s., reportedly a traveler returning from south america. just yesterday there were no cases confirmed in the u.s. atco in south africa. amanda: not south america. matt: the s&p all of a sudden just dropped 20 points. in the dow came down on something that is so obvious. we have been hearing from dr. fauci and other medical professionals as well as white house advisors that there are sure to be omicron cases in the u.s. because people were flying in from south africa as well as the u.s. and other countries and we have spotted cases everywhere. it's really interesting to me
amanda: this is bloomberg markets. i'm amanda lang. breaking news. cdc is reporting the first confirmed case of the omicron variant in the united states reportedly in california. robert langreth is with us. we are seeing a reaction in markets although this seems sort of obvious given that we know there is likely to have been the presence of this variant in many countries.
>> this isn't a surprise at all. everyone was expecting this to happen. we have lots of travelers coming in from lots of countries. it's absolutely expected we are going to get some cases. this is a mild case in a fully vaccinated person. we don't know whole yacht -- a whole lot yet. this is not surprising at all. matt: me break-in. i don't want to big floyd you. dr. fauci is speaking at the white house and i want to listen in. >> we know what we need to do to protect people, get vaccinated if you are not already vaccinated. get boosted if you've been vaccinated for more than six months with an mrna or two months with j&j and all the other things we've been talking about about getting your children vaccinated. masking in indoor congregants utterance.
>> at this point should americans be changing anything they do in their daily lives? >> no. that's a good question and an obvious question. if you look at the things we have been recommending, they are just the same. we want to keep doing that and make sure we pay close attention to that. >> are there other cases of the omicron variant? >> to my knowledge at this point, no. >> what should we take away from the fact that this person's symptoms appear to be mild? >> this is what we call in medicine and equals one -- n equals one. we feel good that this patient not only had mild symptoms that actually the symptoms appear to be improving. but as we've said, there's a lot of information that is now evolving out of countries like south africa that have a much
larger number of individuals. not only who are concerned -- confirmed, but individuals who are probable. they will have a lot of experience that we will benefit from as the weeks go by. some of you heard me say that in a matter of weeks we will know a lot about transmissibility, whether or not it essentially eludes some of the protection from things like monoclonal antibodies. whether or not the disease itself in general is going to be severe and what is the difference in an individual who's been vaccinated versus on vaccinated. boosted versus not boosted. we are going to get that information. i appreciate your question about one individual. we are going to get a lot more information. >> had the person had a booster shot yet? >> to my knowledge, no.
>> the cdc is considering have been stricter testing requirements but also is considering having a period of retesting once they get back to the united states. wouldn't that have helped in this case? >> i'm not so sure because this person got off and is soon as they became symptomatic, they got tested and it was positive. >> this is something that's already affecting the united states. >> i don't think i can make any real statement about when and if that's going to happen. >> in addition to any new testing requirements, what about new requirements for self-quarantining for travelers returning to the u.s. which in this case might have made a difference if she was quarantining? >> the recommendation is that people will self-quarantine if they are not vaccinated and
would also get tested within three days. that's a recommendation right now. >> why is the travel's band affected for those eight countries especially when omicron has been detected in other countries? >> if you look at when we first found out about these cases in south africa, no one feels that a travel ban is going to prevent people who are infected from coming to the united states we needed to buy some time to understand what's going on, what is the nature of this infection and we wanted to make sure that we didn't all of a sudden say it's like anything else, don't worry about it and then something unfolds in front of you that you are really not prepared for. so we look at this as a temporary measure. >> do you support a vaccine requirement for domestic
flights? do you think that is something the country should adopt? >> i'm not sure we should say that is a requirement. i would say that we have 60 million people in this country who are not vaccinated who are eligible to be vaccinated. let's get them vaccinated. let's get the people who are vaccinated boosted let's get the children vaccinated. >> what about people who say you have extinguished many of your options? >> that's a possibility. we talk about why it's important to get vaccinated. i think what's happening now is another example of why it's important for people to get vaccinated who have not been vaccinated. boosting is really very important because the data that we get on boosting. if you look at t