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tv   Bloomberg Markets European Close  Bloomberg  December 2, 2021 11:00am-12:00pm EST

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throughout the show. the countdown to the close abigl:n. apple down 2%, at one point down starts right now. close to 4%, its worst day since >> the countdown is on in europe. may 4. this is "bloomberg markets: european close," with guy nonetheless, not weighing on the johnson and alix steel. index, nor are apple suppliers in the red. ♪ this is a bloomberg exclusive apple is talking about less demand for its iphone in the holiday season. investors do not seem to care. they also said revenue will be at a record, made up by other guy: european equities are down. products and services. the stoxx 600 is trading for 65, investors looking past it. this is not very fearful trading. down by over 1%. as for sector wise, green on the we have really struggled to gain traction since then. screen. we also had some weight added to the market this session, when we very cyclical dominated with financials and energy and saw oil coming down sharply in industrials up top more than 2%. response to what was happening with opec. most of the sectors are back since then, that opec move has above 1%. we have three opening trade, faded. we've now got brent crude trading by 1.8%. visa and mastercard some of the despite that, we still have a top white boosts on the day. stronger dollar. fisa saying spending is decent on travel. the norwegian currency heavily exposed to the oil narrative. what a rebound for airline
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despite the move we are seeing in crude, it is still down. travelers. it is a seesaw day by day but the dollar is still on the front right now the bulls are in foot. the dollar up 0.4% against the charge. alix: a good recap. abigail doolittle joining us. norwegian currency. 29 minutes to go until the end of the day. a lot coming up in the next 24 midway through the day in the united states, approaching that hours. this afternoon president biden point. over to you. alix: what is happening in will deal out his winter plan to do with covid. we already have a lot of europe is definitely not what is happening in the u.s.. indications as to what that will yields are lower, stocks are be. lower. there is a spacex launch in florida. here, stocks are higher and yields are higher as well. i've been talking about it all it looks cool it is important day. the s&p is up by 0.8 percent. for developing low-earth orbit space. guy: it is. most of the sectors in the green. two critical things. apple down almost 3%, but the s&p kind of just shrugs that tomorrow u.s. jobs reports is the main event. off. we have those comments from the nasdaq is rolling over, so that is having an impact on the raphael bostic continuing to overall tech space. but within the broader market, focus on the labor market. everything seems ok. the claims numbers today, they selling all across the curve, seem top but we are tracking and particularly the fives-30's. we have not seen this level of back to pre-pandemic levels. we have durable goods numbers. flattening since march 2020, and we will focus on that. a huge portion of that is a selloff at the front end of the the european banking authority belly of the curve. also going to release its risk assessment report. i wonder how long the to can alix: coming up, ian bremmer
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will be joining "balance of diverge, european equities and u.s. equities, the ecb on the fed. that is really a question for power" with david westin on me. guy: let's talk about the bloomberg television and radio. guy and i are heading to the valuations story and figure out exact a what is happening. european stocks are down today. cable. we are dealing with obviously a you can also find us on apple lot of volatility around podcasts and spotify. omicron, trying to figure out this is bloomberg's. ♪ what is happening with the oil narrative as well. but in some ways, we still got this huge valuation mismatch. u.s. stocks still looked mystic spence of relative to european peers since 2008. -- look expensive relative to european peers since 2008. we are going to see a significant pickup and buybacks. that was the point being made by citi earlier today in a note by them. you are also looking at the value opportunity that exists in europe, plus this valuation discount. we are trying to figure out what the fed is going to mean and u.s. stocks as well. if we see a higher rate comfortably that knox -- that this is elodia. she's a recording artist.
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1 of 10 million people that comcast has connected knocks tech. to affordable internet in the last 10 years. and this is emmanuel, a future recording artist, hugh gimber, jp morgan asset management global market and one of the millions of students we're connecting strategist, joins us now. throughout the next 10. is the recovery of u.s. assets going to have to fade until we through projectup, comcast is committing get the omicron effect? $1 billion so millions more students, past... hugh: good afternoon. and present, can continue to get the tools they need we have seen previously that european markets clearly have not enjoyed new waves of to build a future of unlimited possibilities. covid-19, given the tactical position, and we are in this vacuum for a week, a couple of weeks, who really knows when exactly we learn more about omicron. but when we look ahead to next year, i think the composition of the sector performance that we expect for 2022 should work in the european market's favor. strong performance from the banks, strong performance from parts of the energy sector, parts of the materials sector as well. i still think that procyclical allocation from a sector perspective makes sense, and therefore you tilt toward zero and away from the u.s. alix: what kind of variant
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spread and lockdown measures does that imply? hugh: i think the challenge here is that the health impacts over the next week or few months look very different to the economic impacts, and therefore the market impacts. because clearly the health impacts are where we have by far the least visibility. not my place to try to predict exactly what we are going to learn in the short-term. but the key for markets is that we now have the playbook. we know the market reaction to these previous episodes, and we know the policy response that will likely come. so i expect the markets will largely try to look through this short-term knowledge and think about where economies are headed over the next six to nine months , and where we are going to be sitting next summer. guy: in terms of that policy response, has that been called into question by the federal reserve and the comments that we saw in front of the senate a few
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days back from the fed chair? the suggestion seems to be as well that may be omicron could be inflationary because it will further snarl up supply chains. does the fed have the same room to maneuver if we are going to see financial market economies put under strain? does it still have the ability >> from the world of politics to to stimulate and the way it did before, given the inflationary the world of business, this is backdrop? hugh: that inflation question is "balance of power" with david a really big one, and i think it westin. really comes down to the shape of how developed markets versus emerging markets have reacted to new variance because what we have seen particularly in the david: from bloomberg's world headquarters in new york to east is restrictions tend to be broader and tend to have a much our tv and radio audiences worldwide, welcome to "balance of power." bigger impact on the supply we start today in washington and chain, whereas what you have seen in the developed markets is with the omicron variant, which that it has largely been is the big news of the week. restrictions on services we have had a lot of news and activity, restrictions on travel are about to get more news out , and therefore you tilted, of president biden as he lays locked in the demand, so you are out his plans for dealing with this variant. exacerbating supply chain for that we turn to our
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problems on both sides of the washington correspondent, joe equation. as to how the fed reacts to mathieu, the host of "sound on" this, i look at what we've heard on bloomberg radio. from jay powell earlier this week, and for me this tells you what we know about what the president will say? that the fed wants optionality joe: the white house is acutely as they move into 2022 because aware of how fluid the situation is. with inflation running at very it will be at least another strong levels, i do thick it is couple of weeks before we get hard data on this new variant. hard to justify incremental new stimulus in the form of asset i just came with the briefing purchases right through the from jen psaki who repeatedly first half of next year, but i said everything is on the table still think they will be working d with this implicit growth bias when they think about rate hikes. alix: to that point, how much longer can the two central banks diverge that much? i am really struck by the price action today, and i don't understand how europe is going to shake off any kind of higher yield in the u.s. on the short end, for example. hugh: this all comes back down to inflation because even though you have seen inflation picking up quite sharply in the euro zone over the past couple of
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months, we had a very strong print earlier this week. i still think you are in a very different inflation trajectory. that comes down to wages. we are seeing much stronger wage growth in the u.s. then you are in the euro zone. i think that is buying the ecb more time to take a more patient stance. every central bank i think would like now to say actually, we are just going to sit back and wait for a few weeks to learn a bit more about omicron, but the inflationary pressures are greater today in the u.s. than they are in the euro zone, and therefore there is clearly more pressure on the fed to ask now and to look at accelerating that pace of tapering when they get to the december meeting. i think the ecb just feels that they have a bit more time to wait this out and see how the omicron variant plays out. guy: if i am a european investor , a eurozone investor, how should i think about the ethics risk i am going to be running with my portfolio next year?
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if you are a eurozone investor, you've got 20 get percent in the nasdaq year to date. if you are a u.s. dollar investor, you have 18. the impact of the currency is really starting to be felt now. if we get further dollar strength, those numbers will be exacerbated. how are you thinking about it? hugh: for me, the key is what is already in the price because when you look at how markets are priced for next year, you already have a fairly aggressive pace of fed tightening expected by the market. you are close to three hikes priced in the u.s. market today. so looking ahead to next year, even if you do have the fed pull in the way much more quickly than the ecb, it is what i expect. it is what the market expects. you should not therefore have the same kind of move in fx that you have seen over recent months. so the european investor, i think that gives you more scope to look positively at european equities without that kind of
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lingering feeling of missing out on u.s. returns, which is what we have seen play out for much of 20 to anyone. alix: fair enough. thank you very much, hugh gimber of jp morgan asset management. all of this inflation depend on the very end. coming up, we speak with an award-winning virologist who was a much the first to fly the dangers of a pandemic around the bird flu. ilaria capua of the university of florida will be joining us next. this is bloomberg. ♪ this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> we have once again stressed -- once again expressed our views when it comes to
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compulsory vaccinations. if vaccination mandate is to be discussed and decided on. >> there is a consequence to the fact that a large portion of german citizens have not yet decided to get vaccinated. >> looking at the situation, i believe it is necessary to decide on a vaccination mandate. that means if i were in the german bundestag, i could say i would be in favor of it. alix: that was german chancellor angela merkel and vice chancellor all of schultz earlier today about the country -- chancellor olaf scholz earlier today about the country's new restrictions. reporter: i think they are trying to avoid canceling christmas for people who are already vaccinated, and i think that is really the thing. they are targeting 30 million vaccinations before the end of this year, and they really need to pick up the pace because they
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are seeing the current wave in covid infections which the government is tying to the very sluggish uptake, especially in certain regions of the country, where you can track a slow uptake in the vaccination and a very high infection rate at the moment. so a lot of the restrictions that were put in place today were specifically targeting those who are still not vaccinated. guy: thank you very much, indeed. aggie cantrell joining us from -- aggi cantrill joining us from berlin. let's get more insight into the dual threat of delta and omicron. we are joined by ilaria capua, the virologist who discovered the bird flu. she is currently the director of the university of florida one health center. thank you very much for your time today. european governments are playing catch-up not only in dealing with delta, but also reacting to omicron. what do you make of the reaction thus far? ilaria: well, the reactions
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unfortunately have been, i would say, not very harmonized, and very different in countries. i think there has been an overreaction because viruses create variance. this is how viruses evolve, and therefore, we know as scientists that the more viruses circulate in certain populations, the more they will change. so i think we are still in the fortunate position in which we have a vaccine. we have actually several vaccines. we have a significant number of people who are not vaccinated, and that is the first thing that we need to fix. angela merkel mentioned 13 million people that need to be
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vaccinated. that is a big number. if we don't vaccinate those people, there is no way that we will be able to save christmas. alix: that is definitely one point. i want to hit on something you mentioned earlier, and that is the transparency issue because on the one hand, we are going to want governments to share information quickly, but once the public gets hold of it, then we see extreme reactions to some extent. how do we think about this? ilaria: it is not the first on that this happens, and actually, it happened many years ago with bird flu and certain asian countries that were afraid of being penalized if they notified that they had the bird flu virus in their country. so i think, given the various pandemic treaties that will be established soon, that all of these details are worked out,
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considering that we are now well into the social media era where information travels faster than viruses. guy: in terms of understanding the best way forward, but should it be? south africa discovers a new variant. the danger, as with all these things, is that it becomes the south african variant, or whatever variant it is. how do we deal with the stigma that is associated with being the first country to discover a variant? if you are a country that sequences a lot, you are generally more likely to find a new variant. how do we resolve this? ilaria: absolutely, this is certainly the major problem. in countries in which you have higher levels of surveillance, a greater efficiency of certain
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systems, you do tend to pick up viruses and variance with greater ease. i would like to remind whoever is listening that the delta variant was actually first identified in the u.k., but it did not originate in the u.k. it originated in india. i think that it is important that we understand that, first of all, omicron variant may not have developed in south africa, but it may well have developed elsewhere. we should be very respectful and protect the countries that actually tell the rest of the world that there is a potential problem because this is not yet a real problem. the real problem is that we are not getting enough vaccines to people, be it in europe, be it
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in the united states, africa, or asia. so science has provided a solution to this problem, but then we are facing vaccine hesitancy, which is much more than what we would have ever imagined. so we need to understand that this is a global problem and that we need to come as a community, understand the general context, but also, we don't need to overreact. alix: to that point, how do we get more vaccine in people's arms? threats haven't worked, rewards hasn't worked, mandates haven't worked. what do we do? ilaria: well, we need to engage people more, and unfortunately, now it is a bit late. i think that some countries like germany are talking about a
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vaccine mandate. italy has a vaccine mandate which will be implemented later in the week. other countries will follow. the truth is that there are very diverse cultural backgrounds. we are seeing that, for example, easter -- eastern european countries are more hesitant than southern european countries. this brings us to understanding that a problem of this magnitude is never black-and-white. a problem of this magnitude needs to be understood from multiple angles. so i think this is absolutely our priority, to get people engaged and people to understand that the vaccine is the only way out of this problem. alix: thank you so much. it was a real pleasure to talk to you.
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thank you very much. coming up, we are going to go to the massive dysfunction that is turkey right now is in the currency market. turkey's president erdogan replacing his finance minister. that sends the lira tumbling. that's next. this is bloomberg. ♪
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alix: live from new york, i'm alix steel, with guy johnson in london. this is the european close on "bloomberg markets." one-story is reigning here. president erdogan or places his finance minister, further weakening the lira. here with us now is damian sassower of bloomberg intelligence. what is leading this last leg lower? damian: this revolving door of central bank policy.
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in this case, the minister of finance being replaced. what this means is there is no credibility in turkey whatsoever, and the lira has now plunged through 13.72 the dollar. we all talk about spillover and contagion into the broader markets. the only mechanism i can see that happening is through the european banking committee, five banks that are at risk. bbva stands out. but outside of that, it seems like foreign bank claims on turkey from the european banking sector or from the global banking sector is down something on the order of 30% since 2018, so it seems to be insulated from our perspective. guy: we get cpi tomorrow. what do we think we are looking at? damian: maybe 20%. we are already at 19%.
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maybe a bit of an increase. but we are so far from an equilibrium price in the dollar-lira right now. is it 500, 800, 1000 basis points in rate hikes to get that cross rate back into equally bring? -- into equilibrium? your guess is as good as mine. with the minister of finance leaving, it doesn't look like anyone is standing in the way of erdogan and his persistent lower rates. alix: how difficult is it for a household in turkey right now? there has to be a huge erosion of purchasing power. damian: amazing point. i have been on the phone with some locals there. in turkey, if you are a household, half of your pockets are being denominated in dollars, held offshore. the economy is quickly becoming dollarized. if you need to insulate yourself from inflation and the inflation or pressures the entire world is feeling, you need to move your money into dollars. but with capital controls, it is
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not that easy. turkey is the seventh largest consumer of natural gas globally , and with gas prices and all that we are seeing in the commodity sector, i expect that to worsen things. guy: you bring up the issue of regime change. can you be a bit more specific on what you think is going to happen? damian: that is great to play that out. the ruling party of which erdogan is a member is pu -- is polling at their approval rates at the lowest on record. at this point, they have control of all of turkey's government infrastructure, so if we don't believe in the central bank, how can we believe in free and fair voting? i still don't see any real recipe for us to get out of this mess anytime soon. guy: i remember also that incident where apparently there
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may have been a coup, there may not have been a coup. it will be interesting to see how this regime change story works. it could get really messy. thank you very much, indeed. damian sassower of bloomberg intelligence, greatly appreciated. around four minutes to go to the end of regular trading. this is the picture we currently find ourselves with. we have the ftse, dax, cac 40 all down. we got slower first thing this morning. we have gone sideways since then. we have watched the oil story developed and then fade out of the markets. we will deal with the details in just a moment. the european close is coming up next. this is bloomberg. ♪
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guy: we are wrapping up the session this thursday. this is what we are looking at.
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the european close that is largely painted red. a huge reaction yesterday afternoon in the united states after european markets closed to the news anthony factory brought to the white house -- dr. fauci brought to the white house that there had been a case reported in california. that he moved sideways. i think the u.k. market is the most interesting it has much is it is only down .5%. that brings me on to talk more about the oil story. the dax is down 1.3%, the cac 40 down 1.2%. let's talk about the context of the session and where we are following that big move a few days back. we have locked into a new range. we get excited about these big moves on an intraday basis. if you look at the story over the last few days, we've been 460 or 470.
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we were up in the 400 90's, but we have this new range we are establishing. yes, we had a gap lower, but it keeps us within the new range we will be discovering. we need clarity to ease away on that story. 465 this morning, smack in the middle of that story. let's talk about the swing factor in today's market in terms of the intraday moves we have seen. you get the announcement out of opec-plus that the january hike is still on and terms of the 400,000 barrels. the market tumbles initially and then bounces back strongly. we are then up 1.31%. that turn things around in terms of the sector story. let's show you the grr. what you saw was a big nosedive for the oil stocks. they have popped back up. the oil sector is the only one in positive territory.
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as someone described it in the financial times, london is the jurassic park of the financial markets. basically you have a lot of miners and oil stocks. the energy sector looks more positive. basic resources flattening. the bottom end of the market you get a reaction to the apple story. technology down 3.8%. travel and leisure continues to weaken. julie numbers next week. -- chewy numbers next week. the swing factor has been the oil story. you have asml, it makes the stuff that makes chips that we all need at the moment, down 5.06%. deliveroo is fascinating, down nearly 10%. it is one of the big stay-at-home stocks being battered. aston martin idiosyncratic. the car sector has been under pressure.
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aston martin losing it cfo. the market took that on the chin, down 2%. the loss is accelerated at the day has gone on, appropriate with an aston martin, down nearly 8% on the session. alix: that was a good pun. one company we are watching his supermarket jay morrison. there was a deal -- with supermarket chain morrison. there was a deal to finance a buyout and that has been pushed back due to market volatility. goldman sachs was going to start marketing a syndicated bond in loan financing and that got pushed out. i want to break down what that means. for more is bloomberg's bruce douglas. is this just because of market volatility? bruce: we are seeing things winds down as we come into december, but we have seen a tough time at late in europe and the u.s.. we have not had a leveraged loan
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or a high-yield bond issued this week. the sterling market itself is quite a small market. i think there may be a little bit of indigestion. we have had a few sterling fears -- a few sterling deals in the last months. we had pinewood studios as well as the european discount retailer b&m. bonds in secondary markets were performing poorly. with noise on inflation and the potential for tightening, the members have decided to put back into next year. guy: flies their belief the inflation narrative could go away? bruce: i do not think there is a question it will go away but i think there will be more clarity. waiting to see how serious the
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omicron variant is and also what will happen with the next bank of england meeting in december. i think the idea is lock in the gains and then see what happens next year. alix: if this is part of a big wave of buyouts, project lee of supermarkets, in the u.k. -- particularly of supermarkets in the u.k. i wonder if that is put any of the deals on ice or pushback buyers? bruce: will be seeing a repricing in the high gilt market. -- in the high-yield market. we have the deal that went through earlier this year. there are rumors around a possible takeover -- [indiscernible] obviously we are entering a period of market volatility looking ahead. whenever has been on the table a few months ago might have to be rethought. guy: where are we? what is the sense of the positioning we have with the european market?
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what does the picture look like? we have seen an incredible run? now what? bruce: it is time to take the risk off the table and knuckle down for christmas. next year we will see a different scenario. i think hyde yields have had a relatively stable and profitable run in 2021. certainly for next year will be seeing a lot more volatility. guy: really appreciate it. bruce douglas joining us on the deal for morrison. let's check where european stocks have settled. we are to the end of thursday. not much action during the auction, a slight peak higher for the ftse, down .5%. the oil stocks rescuing the london session. the dax and the cac 40 down 1.3% and 1.2% respectively. we are not done with our market
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coverage in the show and we will continue into later. make sure you tune in if you are here in the u.k. to bloomberg radio. the cable show. 12:00 in london -- 5:00 in london, 12:00 in new york. you can find is on the terminal and you can now download the podcast and listen to us on spotify and apple podcast. free much looking forward to seeing how that works. alix: is basically this thing called itunes, and you are on your phone and you click on it and then you find the cable. guy: i was waiting for the explanation. how does actually work? alix: let me explain in alix. i had to correct my husband and my mom who thought it was streaming in the u.s. we look forward to the rest of the u.s. day and we cover a lot of themes and we get a chance to talk and you learn a lot about our lives and it is funny.
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i would highly recommend it. guy: the funny bit is questionable but i think we enjoy it. alix: i think we are funny, which probably says a lot. coming up, crude popping back up. opec-plus says they will proceed with the next production hike and still be able to adjust the output if they see the risks to demand. we will break it down with amrita sen. this is bloomberg. ♪
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ritika: this is the european enclosed. you're looking at a live shot of the pencil room. coming up on commodities edge, francis nielsen at 1:00 new york, 6:00 in london. this is bloomberg. >> near-term there is still a lot of uncertainty around omicron. i think the willingness for investors to put high levels of risk on is limited. i would expected to be higher
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going into year end. real potential upside after the first year. alix: that was jeff currie speaking to us in the last hour. let's take a look at some of the oil moves following opec's decision to go ahead with its planned output -- to output hike 400,000 year. we have amrita sen and alex longley joining us. set the stage for us. what happened and what surprised you? alex: opec agreed to go ahead with lifting up. what they have said is they will continue to leave the meeting open, effectively opening the door to potential cuts if the omicron variant worsens the demand picture in the coming weeks. prices took a big tumble. once that suggestion of keeping the meeting open continues, we have seen crude rally back three dollars or four dollars off the lows. what you have to keep in mind is
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how far the oil price has fallen. this is a market that is now well into a bear market, down 20% from where it was, and see people come in covering from where we were, no longer liquidating the market, and saying we may cut production if the demand outlook deteriorates some movement higher from here. guy: how much of that was a surprise? i led your notes earlier on. there was an expectation that may be a pause with the most likely outcome. is that effectively what we have got? amrita: it was a pretty impressive move -- even we were saying to our clients is the pause is the most logical outcome. their own balances so -- shows such huge bills, it made sense. the fact that they went ahead with the increase, we think there were political considerations at play. the genius move was keeping this
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meeting open. it will probably be the longest meeting ever. you will not be brave enough to sell against that. alix: the oil the u.s. is releasing is going to be heavier crude. the oil we would get from opec-plus will be heavier crude. as of the supply gap in the suite crude market. i will say we see a lot of differentials widen out on this. i wonder if this will do anything for the markets? amrita: fundamentally the market remain strong and you are right. the quality of crude from spr and opec-plus does not do anything for the -- that will remain strong. we are in a bear market because this will be a huge technical move, the negative gamma has been triggered. we need to recover from that. when you talk about pure fundamentals, one of the biggest reasons opec-plus should evolve
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is because the quality of the crude would offset the spr release. right now it will not help the refiners that need the crude. guy: how much politics is involved? there has been much made of the fact that the president of the united states and the crown prince have not been talking. is this a way of diffusing the situation? is this what the saudi's are trying to achieve, or is this just the market mechanics, the strategy around exactly how supply and demand will work? is there something else is the question i am asking? alex: i think amrita just alluded to it, you have the u.s. and the saudi's moving to restore the relationships and the tensions had boiled over, project way with the spr release, that was a strong conflicting market narrative. on the one hand you had consumer saying this is supply the needs to come to market and inflation
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is growing too much. on the other hand you have producers saying things are not that bad. i think you've seen at the taunt between the u.s. and saudi or -- perhaps you've seen a detente between the u.s. and saudi arabia. that will have some impact in the outcome of the meeting today. what remains to be seen is how this production quality evolves given the uncertainty of the omicron variant. realistically it is hard to say how the market is going to look in two or three weeks given how quickly measures are changing. even as opec was meeting germany was announcing new restrictions in europe. that will clearly have as big an impact on production ali in the coming weeks -- on production quality in the coming weeks as the political would. alix: i feel like if opec-plus were saudi arabia was serious about helping out president biden, they would increase
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production even more. is this a we are ignoring you, or a we will help you? amrita: no, i think this was much more around relations are getting a little bit better, there were delegations from the u.s. in saudi arabia this week and last week as well. this is definitely an improvement. opec-plus can increase by 400. what i will say is keeping the meeting open gives the maximum optionality if things get worse. we are being told conversations are continuing amongst countries. i would not be surprised if they do that in january, they take stock about what is happening, his demand falling for a few days or months and then they can act. guy: did they wait until january, or do we see something happening over the christmas period? they have done things like that in the past. there is history.
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you think they wait as long as january before figuring out what they are going to do? amrita: i don't think so. let me rephrase that. they do not have to. who will come out in two weeks, i think that is a big deal for opec. good luck on all of our christmas holidays. they can absently do somhing around that, especially because the quiddity will be low, price would be very volatile. that is why they are keeping this meeting open. they do not have to wait until january. it is about getting more information about the scale up and demand decline. alix: i want to get your take on the curve. all of the spr release will have to be bought back in that will have an effect on the curve. in the meantime we have seen spreads weaken. where do we go? amrita: threads will be week given the massive selloff -- spreads will be weak given the
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massive selloff we have seen. we do have more oil in q1. the back end of the curve, no investment in oil outside of the current variant issues. we very much like the back end of the curve, especially given the selloff we have seen. we are maintaining our over $100 oil price. that is not changed. guy: we will leave it there. amrita sen joining us from houston and soon to be in new york and bloomberg's alec longley, greatly appreciated. i want to break some headlines from atlanta. romaine bostick -- raphael bostic making these comments, saying we are talking about accelerating maybe the taper, slow and steady rate hikes.
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employment is evolving in a way that is quite positive. remember the dual mandate. dr. bostic talking about the fact inflation is above the benchmark, but he is making the point they continue to focus on gold. maybe the employment box has been picked. bostic may be implying we are not there yet. alix: morgan stanley says even if we see a faster taper that does not meet we will see rate hikes immediately, still sticking to rate hikes in 2023 comment a longer period between the two. guy: the clump is probably around the beginning of the summer next year. that seems to be where most houses are now migrating. pushing out to 2023 looks like an outlier. some suggest march could be a possibility. that looks a little early judging by some of the conversations i've been listening to. alix: it in some way echoes what
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raphael bostic is saying. we want to finish the taper before doing anything on rates and it is in the fed's interest to wrap up the taper. still slow and steady on rates. i'm trying to connect the dots and it feels like maybe that does not fly. a bigger cushion. guy: some people are suggesting you want to frontload it deal with the inflation narrative so you do not have to push the terminal rates too high, you go early and aggressive and you do not end up with a sharp pop to the cycle. an ongoing discussion. lots of fed speak coming up. this is bloomberg. ♪
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guy: in london, i'm guy johnson. alix steel is in new york.
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this is european close on lee bird markets. let's talk about what it -- on bloomberg markets. let's talk about stateside. stocks higher, potentially good vaccine news helping out. we got a note earlier on pointing me in that direction. lets he with the big moves look like. abigail doolittle, over to you.
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