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tv   Whatd You Miss  Bloomberg  December 2, 2021 4:30pm-5:01pm EST

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caroline: i'm caroline hyde. romaine: i'm romaine bostick. taylor: i'm taylor riggs. romaine: the omicron variant. the talk of inflation. the talk from jay powell. markets looking for the next data point to chew on, 8:34 out of washington -- that u.s. jobs report. over the next three minutes, we will talk about what to look forward to as we talk about how maybe the new variant changes
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some of those numbers, going forward. your going to dig into how travel restrictions affect more workers. let's start with what economists are expecting. taylor: you told me there is this cool thing called the bloomberg terminal that you can read stories on. guess what? we also combined all of the major economists on the street. i was reading the latest from morgan stanley, looking for payrolls to jump by 560. the average on-screen, about 550. unemployment rate of about 4.6%. she is looking at 4.4%. participation rate is interesting. 61.7% as we are thinking about a labor force that is trying to reenter the market. we still have near record jobs openings that we have been getting. still incredible when we are looking at how to push forward, all in reaction to the different
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jay powell we heard from this week, as well as the inflation and employment. that's do it all with our bloomberg u.s. economy editor, molly smith. as you look at the estimates, how are you thinking about tomorrow? molly: very much in line with what you just discussed. for the most part, economists are expecting a continuation of october's strong number. even before october, we had sizable revisions. there is good momentum in the hiring market. hoping for that to continue as these high wages we are seeing are hopefully pulling people off the sidelines. in tandem with that, the inflation we are seeing, a lot of americans cannot afford to go without a paycheck for much longer. caroline: molly, we've gotten used to these numbers being quite wrong. even if we do not hang our hat on 50,000, what do you think the commentary will be about? there is a new variant as we are
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going into it. molly: if you get a big miss, looking forward with the omicron variant, it is going to be more of a factor of supply than demand. there are so many openings. employers are desperate to hire. i don't think that changes because of the new variant. i don't think many more businesses are not going to be hiring. but it could deter more people who are already nervous about contracting the virus in the workplace, that they would not want to reenter the workforce. romaine: we are expecting an uptick in the nonfarm payrolls number. what about with regard to earnings themselves? not only what it takes to lure people back into the workforce, but may be longer-term effects of inflation. molly: that is where we have been seeing that wages have been rising, especially in lower paid industries, in some cases for workers in the leisure and
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hospitality industry. those wage increases are even outpacing inflation. you have to keep in mind that those jobs are starting from such a low level of pay that they have a lot more room to grow in terms of the ceiling for pay in those industries. that is going to be another closely watched measure. romaine: a headline earlier from exxon mobil that they were not going to have pay wages -- pay raises that match inflation. taylor: that is hard when inflation is 6%. you need an increase in your salary of 6%, or you are losing money. with some of the numbers as we ramp up to the holiday season, some of the anecdotal evidence from ceo's on this program is they are not hiring seasonally. it has been so hard to hire workers that they are incentivizing them to stay on, because the job search has been so difficult. do you hear that as well? molly: it would be interesting to see what we get out of that tomorrow. there is a line in the jobs
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report on hiring for temporary services, which generally around this time of year would point holiday hiring. last month, very strong numbers. you would think that in november that would hopefully increase from the october level. caroline: molly smith with the inside track. thank you so much. longer-term perspectives -- an economist is with us for more. as we look at these one-off numbers, what about the participation rate within that? that is something we have been focused on because it is not taking as high as we expect. >> that's right. we continue to see labor force participation be lower than we would like. one of the reasons why the unemployment rate has been low and has been coming down is because we have not seen as many people return to the labor market. i expect that will continue to rise over the next year. i think that if we see the kinds of numbers we saw in october, in november, and moving forward, we will easily get back to the kind of pre-pandemic labor market,
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including absorbing new population growth and return of people to the labor force by the end of 2022. romaine: there was a lot of talk after powell's testimony earlier this week about full employment, the last leg the fed is looking for in order to start raising rates. has been a lot of debate as to what we are going to consider full employment. how we look at it overall from an economic perspective -- we saw in the most recent monthly jobs report growing disparities between black workers and white workers, between women and men, as well as other minority groups. how does that factor into the data? elise: i think that is absolutely essential. when we think about how people are doing in the economy, we have to look across all demographic groups and think about those that have fared the worst historically. historically, there has been a black unemployment rate two times as high as white. that does not have to be how it
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is, but it is how it is right now. the white unemployment rate is down to 4%, lower than the black unemployment rate pre-pandemic, over than it has ever been. we need to pay attention to these disparities coming out of this. we don't want to get back to the pre-pandemic economy. we can do better. we have seen women having a pretty flat population ratio. the gains have been among men. we need to have a more equitable and stronger recovery. taylor: what about wages? it is one thing to reenter the workforce and find a good job, but finding a job that is paying above inflation -- we were getting headlines. it is hard at a 6% inflation rate to keep your real wages in line with the nominal inflation rate. could that be a deterrent? elise: it certainly is difficult to make ends meet if you are not keeping up with inflation.
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if employers are having a hard time attracting the workers they want, a simple solution is to raise their wages. and we talk about inflation, one thing to note is that the inflation is not -- we are seeing faster wage growth. woods versus services is going on in the economy today. concern about rising wages leading to inflation, that is not where that is being led. at the same time, we are seeing record high profits. it looks like inflation is going into the pockets of owners, and not to workers in the economy. caroline: to that end, we are getting headlines -- to call out one company, exxon, saying they will not be raising wages in line with inflation, is that what you expect to hear from many other key private or public companies? elise: it is unfortunate that workers don't have the leverage to be able to bid up their wages, to be able to get those
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stronger wage increases. if that is turning into profit, it is because employees -- employers do not think they have to do it to attract the workers they want, which suggests the market is not as tight as some of the numbers would indicate. romaine: what about the age demographic? there was talk about how older workers were basically tapping out during the pandemic and not coming back. to a certain extent, even some of the younger workers don't necessarily need the income. they can rely on parents or grand parents. how does that factor in? elise: we are seeing some younger workers coming back in now. i think that that will be what will be going forward. some of the elder workers will come back into the labor market. there is a new strain we have to be concerned about, the omicron variant, and having that in the labor market. taylor: the fed has signaled
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they were focused on reaching full employment, and the definition has changed. inflation has been rearing its head. with jay powell's comments, how does that complicate the story of the federal reserve that might have to move faster than maybe was thought? elise: i think it would be a mistake to move faster to raise rates. it is simply not what the data is suggesting. the inflation we are seeing was driven by the increased demand, the bottlenecks and the supply chains. we are not seeing it have the effect on the labor market that would lead to spiraling inflation. if we do not, we are threatening to keep me people on the sidelines. caroline: i'm interested in what
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you think the future will hold in terms of getting people back from the sidelines and being able to bargain their wages a little bit more. we feel like we are seeing more union focus, trying to reinsert. we think about amazon and deere. is this something you think will prevail to a certain extent? elise: i hope so. i hope workers can get some of that leverage to see real wage increases. it needs to translate into actual contracts and being able to solidify some of those pay increases. not only better pay, but better benefits. it is without guarantee of enough hours. all of the things that workers really need to be able to get by. romaine: great to get your thoughts ahead of another monthly jobs report. a senior economist at the
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economy policy institute. we are going to go deeper than just the headline numbers and talk about part of the jobs numbers -- immigration. under the h-1b program, we have seen that dropped the most in at least a decade. we will discuss what that means, after the break. ♪
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romaine: we are going to get the jobs report. we are talking a lot about what it's going to mean. they have been eight to rely on workers from around the world. the pandemic has hampered the pool of employees. caroline: workpieces have been so hard to get. my husband's work permit last year took six months last year instead of the six weeks it usually takes. the slow down is so hampering the turnaround of visas. 850,000 nonimmigrant workpieces between when covid-19 forced borders to shut down -- basically, it is almost half what you are usually getting. i'm about to have to hotfoot it outside of the u.s. to get my visa renewed. it is incredibly tough out there for people who are not of u.s. upbringing or birth to be able to stay here and work at the moment. taylor: let's talk about this. we are joined with lindsay lama,
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a former chief counsel of the u.s. citizenship and immigration services. you are well aware of some of the issues that are going on. talk about this loss in visas and work permits, and how much is related to covid, or if you think this is more of a structural issue that is underway even in a post-covid environment. >> thanks for the opportunity to be here. it is an important question because we saw the critical role that h-1b workers played during the pandemic -- pharmaceutical, health-care, cyber, transitioning everyone to a digital environment. it is not for lack of demand, as you folks mention. there is 1.2 million vacancies in computer related occupations or computer positions, which is predominantly what h-1b visa workers fill. it is done around 1%. the last year, there were more registrations for h-1b workers than any year prior to this.
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the demand for the skilled workers is there. there has been a significant drop primarily due to the operational capacities at the consulates outside the united states, and the delays at my old agency, u.s. citizenship and immigration services. caroline: i feel like some of the hardest working people in the last year and a half, two years, have been the immigration parts of every business. i'm interested in what the knock on effects are, from your perspective. we are seeing a story in the i t sector, in technology. they are getting far fewer h-1b visa candidates than usual. is that going to hamper a company's ability to grow as they wish? lynden: it is problematic, especially as companies look ahead to 2002. they are already making predictions about their ability to bring in employees, many of whom are already employed by the company. they need to transition to the u.s., where there is the need.
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for a business right now to be able to plan in the current environment -- it is not just a business issue. the big factor right now is whether the government is going to be able to change its policies and increase its capacity in time to match the economic growth that is going to happen next year. romaine: do you anticipate -- we have kind of come to a point where some people really wanted this, in this country at least -- they wanted to see a slowdown for political reasons that predated the pandemic. there does not seem to be, at least not publicly, a tremendous willingness to address this, in a way. we get the sense that maybe the slow foot we are seeing becomes more permanent here. how do you tell potential clients here how to navigate this environment right now? is it come wait and see, or avoid the united states altogether and maybe find another country where your skills and services might be of use? lynden: that is a good question
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and the significant risk for the united states generally. if companies start to look elsewhere as a long-term strategy -- right now, i think there is a willingness by this administration to try to address these issues. they have been making changes. anyone who has been in government knows that government agencies react more slowly than the private sector. that is what we are seeing right now. it is not a lack of desire on their part. some of it is regulatory and legal to make the changes. some of it is technological -- video conferencing at u.s. consulate's overseas. that is something the private sector has long wanted, and the government has lagged behind the private sector. long-term, i think companies are willing to be patient, but there is going to be real strain over the next six to 12 months as they feel the pressure with staffing and skills that needs they just cannot locate in the united states. taylor: when we think about
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solutions, you played a role in drafting and managing some of the comprehensive immigration legislation we saw back in 2006. was that enough? what sort of bigger solutions do you think are needed, so it does not become structurally entrenched, and the labor market moves somewhere else? lynden: the significant need right now is an issue for the companies. many workers are actually stuck on h-1b even though they are eligible for a green card. they are looking to transition to a more permanent status. many are deemed eligible for a green card. there are statutory limits that have not been raised in decades. there is also underutilization or waste by the federal government in using all those green cards. many of us would like to see a further drop in h-1b's, because we see them move to a green card status and into a more secure, long-term environment. that is going to be good for the u.s. economy, and eventually it is good for you was workers.
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there is a lot of bipartisan support for that in congress. the near turn -- near term issue, that is being addressed. hopefully, we'll see progress in the next year. caroline: on the other cited it, is it good for the u.s. worker to have fewer immigrants coming in? is there a longer-term mentality shift, as we see not only in the u.s. but worldwide, that people want to focus on their american or british or french worker rather than relying on immigrants, to ensure that the people at home do better? is there a longer-term shift in policymaking to make it harder for people like me to come in and work? lynden: that argument is out there, but both things can be true at the same time. if you want to address your supply chain issues, and you want to do semiconductor facilities in the united states, you need to be able to bring in a global workforce to build, maintain, test, and address some of those long-standing issues.
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that will create thousands of u.s. jobs. so they go hand in hand. anyone who thinks it is compatible, a one-to-one replacement of a u.s. worker for a foreign worker, that is more of a talking point than anything economists would agree on. taylor: really appreciate your time. lynden melmed come up with some good perspective. we are going to shift to focus back on jobs day tomorrow, and the labor numbers that come out. here is a new idea. we have been talking about the labor shortage, the truck driver shortage. guess what? instead of being 21, we might come down to 18. ♪
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caroline: today, we are focused
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on all things labor market. i'm going to share an interesting story -- teens are coming to the rescue, whether working at disney or any in trucks to alleviate the shortage of delivery right now. drivers seeking retirement, companies facing an inability to train eligible replacements -- they are looking now at an industry down 3.5 million drivers in 2019. what are they doing? they are going for a younger worker. in the u.k., you can drive if you are 18, and now in the u.s. taylor: and maybe given the new infrastructure law that joe biden signed, you can be as low as a team. there are some pros and cons. the pros include bringing more people into the labor market. some of the cons say there are more crashes that happen. romaine: you can drive a commercial truck at 18. with the exception of new york state.
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this basically allows you to make longer hauls across state lines. the idea that an 18-year-old would not be responsible enough to handle a big rig, i'm not sure i buy it. caroline: i like that. taylor: that does it. bloomberg technology is up next. ♪
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>> from the heart of where innovation, money, and power can buy -- combine, this is bloomberg technology with emily chang. emily: i am emily chang in san francisco and this is bloomberg technology. the apple falls. why demand is slowing for apple's most popular device. omicron keeps popping up around the world, but a ea

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