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tv   Bloomberg Surveillance  Bloomberg  December 3, 2021 6:00am-7:00am EST

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>> they are going to start that journey to normal, and we will help them. >> the markets position themselves for a little bit more normalization. there is a wide band of probability of where things can go from here on. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance." jonathan: it is payrolls friday, from our audience and worldwide, good morning, this is "bloomberg surveillance" on tv and radio. your equity market down. we are few hours away from the jobs report. tom: the markets will react. what really takes my note and this goes to the world of jon ferro and lisa abramowicz is the curve flattening is tangible. the two yearly -- two year yield -- jonathan: we started the program
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by saying we do not have a clue what is going on, and economists do not either. the ranges anywhere from 800,000 to 300 -- to 375. tom: how about the swiss twenty-year going through to a new negative yield over the last six days, a greater negative yield and we have a euro-swiss with well below 1.04 for a longer period than a couple of days ago. jonathan: how will the swiss national bank respond to this. i love a central banker unleashed, a central banker no longer in a seat or a central banker that has left that seat. the governor in the last 24 hours, a shout out for "the wall street journal. "we said we would wait until we would see the whites of their eyes that we never said they would let it -- we would let them march over them -- march over us." lisa: the shift in tone is
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remarkable. the fed vice chair having a similar tone. but there is this issue right now where suddenly inflation seems to have a different imminence, which makes me think that this jobs report would have to be good enough for them to keep going. jonathan: they are all singing from the same sheet. tom: is that what that means? i have too much english literature? jonathan: are you doing a separate show over there? i am going to go to the price action. let us move the camera rig. yields in a basis point or two to 1.4274. euro-dollar 1.13. the economy market .2%. lisa: we will get into all of the crude moves yesterday and what is behind the scenes.
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8:30 a.m., the u.s. november jobs report. i am watching the participation rate and i know tom keene keene is as well, how much do we see it increase? there are still so many people out of the labor market and there was a survey showing that nearly 1/5 of them are not looking for work, why are they coming back? this will be key to the federal reserve and key to determining if we will enter a hot environment. after that marty walsh is speaking with a host who has a british accent at 9:30 a.m. and president biden is ready to comment at 10:15 a.m. i am curious to watch marty walsh with our own jonathan ferro, just to see how he talks about the shift the power to labor pop --, how do we talk about the increases we have seen in wages that are not keeping pace with base consumer inflation but are running at some the past -- fastest pace as we have seen.
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at 10:00 a.m., the u.s. ism data for november. we will see the momentum in the services sector into the potential new variants of covid, which may or may not have lasting power. i want to see what the momentum is light. we were already dealing with the delta variant. we need to shift from buying goods to services. jonathan: just going to have some commentary from the bank of england saying "omicron is a key consideration for a december rate decision. that coming on december 16 and he says we likely need a rate height -- hike and if we move quicker those moves can be limited. you have to imagine that would be the case three or two weeks away. tom: away from this jobs report, everybody is adapting and jesting -- and adjusting to omicron. we will keep you abreast of that through the morning. jonathan: waiting for the data.
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equity market down .2%. kicking off the conversation this morning with us is the former fed governor and professor of economics at the university of chicago school. what happened with chairman powell and all of them this week? they are still -- they are all singing from the same hymn sheet and it seems to have come from nowhere, what is this about? randy: i think they finally got it, that this is not transitory, as we have discussed before they are going to put transitory language and make that history, but they kept it. but they realize this is something that they have to take seriously their worried about expectations getting out of control so they are making it clear that they will speed the taper, which will allow them to start to raise rates earlier. we talked about this before, i thought that was what they should have been doing. jonathan: -- tom: i did a chart of labor
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participation of men back to 1948, and it is a changed america. how do you do fed policy given two americas. i have an unemployment rate in nebraska under 2% and then 5 million people who cannot find a job off of covid, how do you do a singular policy given two americas? randy: the fed does not have the tools to make regional policy, they can only make national policy, so they have to make an assessment of what is best overall, and i think that they realized that most markets right now, there is a shortage of labor and a lot of pressure on wages, we are seeing wages going up at rates we have not seen or two or three decades when inflation was a lot higher. i think that is one of the other things that is concerning the fed, so they have to make it for the general policy for the thrust of where the economy is
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going, and that is labor shortages, not labor exits. lisa: into .5 hours we will get this report and the emphasis has shifted to not a hot labor market what a good enough market for the fed to continue to focus on inflation. is that the right way to cast this? is the focus purely on inflation? randy: they are concerned about the labor market, but the narrative they developed is that is -- it is a strong labor market. he talked about this before when the number came out disappointingly low, that was a sign of incredible strength because firms were not able to get the workers that they wanted and we have a record number people quitting and job openings relative to the number of people looking for jobs. and so, i think the fed has commenced itself no matter what the number has come out today that it is going to need more --
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need to move more swiftly where it will develop a narrative that the split market is so hot that they could not hire enough workers. lisa: what is your sense of the idea that the fed will have to raise more than people previously expected, they will have to raise faster to a higher base rate than we thought three months ago? randy: the key thing will be how the variance and particular policy responses come out. and so, if it turns out, and there is some preliminary evidence on this, that the new variant is something that spreads rapidly, but is not very -- but does not cause much health harm, especially if you have been double vaccinated, and have a booster, than policy will move away from the lockdowns and supply disruptions and take off some of the pressures. also more people will be willing to come back into the labor
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market. this gets back to the earlier point, a lot of people are not coming to the labor market because they do not want to be exposed to the virus that is totally reasonable. until they have the confidence that there will not be a new variants and that vaccines are effective against the vaccines that are coming you will see low labor market persist -- participation. tom: not to do market economics with you, do you have a call on wage growth and inflation-adjusted wage growth? what is the pressure that you see the fed having over real wage growth? randy: that is always the most difficult thing. we have controls over the nominal variables, how much inflation there is and etc., that they do not have the control over the difference between the real variables and inflation-adjusted variables. they, of course, would like to see real wage growth but they also do not want to see nominal wage growth be too high.
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the only way to get that real wage growth is through productivity growth and that will become more to the fiscal and tax side of things. jonathan: good to hear from you. on this payrolls friday, we have gone through what the banks on wall street on looking for from the federal reserve, the guide with others grouping around the month of june and july. a little bit later, 7:00 a.m. eastern time we will catch up on the patience to td and they are looking at 2023. they are waiting for q1 23. just two shops that do not expect the fed to hike next year. tom: not appearing us -- appearing with us, christine lagarde, but she has gone well out. the banks are talking and doing the parlor game monthly meeting, but there is a wide dispersion of the what if's and everyone
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has to live without two years. jonathan: cable, taking a leg lower. sterling, 1.32 64. i will give you the headlines. michael saunders of the bank of england saying delay a rate -- delaying a rate increase might also be costly. he also sees advantages of the bank of england waiting for the data. the rate rise will be limited if we do not delay too long. tom: the bank of england unleashed. and this was unleashed on arsenal. jonathan: did you see that first goal? if you where the referee would you have allowed that first goal, we do -- we want to know. tom: i do not understand it, it is your support. jonathan: it is your support too. it is a very inclusive sport. tom: i am in mourning. jonathan: it is payrolls friday,
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5:50 the estimate. this is bloomberg. ritika: with the first word news, congress has averted a u.s. government shutdown on thursday night. the senate passed a stopgap spending bill and sent it to president biden. it will pay for government operations through february 18. without it, the government would've been forced into a partial shutdown. it is a stunning reversal, didi that went against beijing, and the company has begun preparation to delay state shares in the u.s. will start work on a hong kong share cell. they said that the u.s. listing
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would lead to a leakage of sensitive data. christine lagarde says an increase in interest rates next year is unlikely, but she said that she will not hesitate to act on inflation if need be. they are deciding on the future measures of stimulus. the omicron variant of the coronavirus is the dominant strain in south africa, where it was first detected. south africa reported 11,000 covid cases on thursday and omicron has been detected in more than two dozen places from the u.s. to south korea. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> we are expanding our national
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booster campaign to provide booster shots to all eligible adults. our doctors and scientists believe that people who get a booster shot are more protected than ever from covid-19. jonathan: the president of the united states, joe biden. from new york city, good morning. let us turn to the price action. we are negative about .1 -- one third of a percent. and name in the premarket that i want to discuss, didi. there is a push from america and a pull from china, these countries are one direction. back home, did getting -- didi getting ready to delist in the you let -- in the u.s. and in hong kong. the sec finally putting into place a new law that mandates foreign companies open their
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books to u.s. scrutiny. china and hong kong are the only two jurisdictions that refuse to allow this despite the fact that it has been required since 2002. this story is literally decades old and it is finally drawing to a conclusion. tom: it is decades old. jack ma tried to explain chinese expansion into western capitalism, and it was absolutely bizarre then as it is absolutely bizarre now. jonathan: it is beyond bizarre. for 20 years, u.s. regulators, u.s. lawmakers, it is not just the united states, allowed the chinese communist party to play by different rules believing that ultimately they would adapt in the future. that has not happened. what has now happened after debating this, it is not just a u.s. pushing and china actively put it -- pulling. they are pulling them home, so
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they have had 20 years of u.s. capital markets and they have their own and they are bringing it home. i find the whole story remarkable. tom: 2022 will start with an important conversation about that and it is in discussion with great experts on china. i can tell you that it is a movable thesis and will not end with 2021. emily wilkins knows that washington will not end with 2021. i guess there is no shutdown, but what i really saw was a reaffirmation of the republican party in the singular aloneness of democrats and the president of the united states. this morning, how alone do democrats feel? emily: this morning democrats are breathing a sigh of relief. they know they are not going for a government shutdown, they will have a couple more months to get funding together. they have the february 18 deadline, the new one where they have to pull together the funding for the fiscal year.
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let us be clear, this does not mean that the democrats are completely relaxing. they know that the debt limit is coming up and that is something they need to address. they do not have a clear path forward about how they will raise the debt limit and you saw the house lead. the senate is gone. tom: it is a political football. do you have a civics 101. do the democrats need the gop to adjust the debt limit? emily: technically they do not, they can do it through a reconciliation process that we have been talking about for the social welfare plan. they can do the exact same thing, the thing is it takes time and it opens democrats up to a process where republicans can offer a number of amendments that certain moderate democrats might say, hey, i should vote for that and that causes larger issues. right now you have seen chuck schumer, and mitch mcconnell going and talking together, trying to figure out what some path forward will be.
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again, the clock is running out and we have not gotten any agreement from them on what it will look like. lisa: i want to follow-up on the gdp listings in the new york stock exchange, the chinese government saying that they do not want to subject this ride-hailing company to expose their data to the united states. is it accelerating any of the conversations around trying to restrict the capital raises by chinese company in the united states. emily: we have seen the senate move on a number of bills that would sort of punish china or slaps sanctions on chinese authorities and regulators around multiple different aspects. not just the stock market, but a number of other things. we have reporting saying the house will be taking up a bill that addresses products that are potentially made with labor camps, and that is something that the house will be looking at within the next week, how do
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you punish these companies and lay down restrictions on that. once again, china remains in a large part a bipartisan issue in congress, one of the few ones. everyone from the biden administration to republicans understand the need for the u.s. to really remain competitive and strong, and to take china very seriously, both as a competitor and in terms of some of the things around human rights, and taiwan and a number of different issues. lisa: what is interesting is the increase in gulf between polity -- increasing gulf between politicians and leaders. he basically said his famed ignorance is a sad moral lapse. how is this gap getting represented in policy? is there an increasing attention to wall street's conflicting desires from the populist kind
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of rallying cry? emily: at this point we have not seen anything particularly notable that shows some of the attitudes we are seeing from corporate leaders are coming into congress. for politicians it is still very popular among americans to take the strong and aggressive stance towards china and that is what you are seeing politicians do. one thing to keep an eye on, the senate over the summer passed a bill to increase u.s. competitiveness with china and the senate and house have come together to conference on the bill, trying to get something done. if you are curious about what the u.s. government's stance will be going forward, that is absolutely a discussion to watch. lawmakers have not started meeting yet, but we did see a number of house leaders meet with nancy pelosi on what they want for the bill going forward. jonathan: it is always good to catch up with you. this story will get buried by payrolls in a couple of hours time. we caught up with a lot of
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people who are comfortable being in chinese equities, but just doing it in a different way. jay is one of those investigators. lisa: i think investors and corporations are seeing the vast amount of money and economic dynamism coming out of the nation and they want to participate. this is the issue i see as you see more of a consensus in washington, d.c.. you also see a consensus in wall street and beyond, it is literally the opposite. jonathan: that headline coming out of china, premier league china to cut a reserve ratio to a smaller to medium size enterprise. a rate cut will be right around the corner. tom: the more accommodative policy when they deal with domestic politics. i would go back to the party meetings which are absolutely the critical. every expert says focus on the presidency and how they deal
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with these important party meetings. jonathan: counting you down to the payrolls report. you will need an estimate this morning from november, 550 k. with futures down .3%. this is bloomberg.
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jonathan: from new york city from our audience worldwide, here is price action, negative down. on the nasdaq a similar amount. down about .1%. 4800 on the s&p next year, we will talk about that a little bit later. let us sit on the bond market. on the week, year to year yield up 11 basis points. the 10-year yield down four basis points. two year up in 10 year down 15 basis points flatter on a .2 curve. this curve is flatter, flatter, the 10 is down another two basis points. here's the curve over the last year. it is a round-trip, we are back to 81. we ended 2020 at 70 19 -- at 79
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basis points. we are all the way back down again to 81%. tom: other spreads are almost back to february and pre-pandemic. there are real nuances looking spread to spread. jonathan: we are working through that and the idea that the fed will be very tolerant of the inflation. that story has changed. looking at the payrolls, by 50 is your median at 8:30 eastern time the payrolls report. tom: martin walsh, jonathan -- jonathan ferro in conversation with the secretary of labor. he has a really interesting mandate with bloomberg intelligence as chief industry economist and joins us this morning. i am loving your research note where you allude to the fact that this declining unemployment rate is different than the last time we had a declining unemployment rate, why is 4.5% now different than 4.5% x years
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ago? >> the difference boils down to labor force participation and we have not seen this rebound of participation that many people were expecting around labor day on the unemployment benefits expired and a lot of the schools reopen for in person learning. it simply did not happen, and normally if you are creating jobs at a pace of 150,000 to 200,000 per month that is enough to keep the unemployment rate stable. we are talking about easily doubling that. until we start to see that rebound of participation which, for the reasons that we think are underlying that, that is something that will be resolved during the winter months with a new variant on the rampage and case counts picking up dramatically even before the variant was discovered. i think those same inhibiting factors will remain present through the winter months meaning that weeks are set we
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could see a gap lower in the unemployment rate. we could see a lot of forecasting pointing to a re-handle on unemployment. i would not be surprised that if over the next quarter or so we see really a dramatic decline in unemployment which puts that much pressure on the fed. tom: amid this pandemic are we impatient about and improving labor economy? are we wishing the end of 2021 wishes that we will see in 2022? or are we into much of a hurry to heal the economy? carl: i think that theme applies across a number of sectors whether you are looking at inflation, disruptions at the ports, all of these unusual basic facts that we are seeing impacting economic data, senior -- seasonal adjustments. we are still a long way from normal in terms of many facets of the economy including labor market performance. lisa: when we started talking
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about this conversation with participation rates there was a study that caught my attention from the chamber of commerce. we are about 20% of all respondents -- 20% of all respondents said they were not actively looking for jobs if they were out of work. can we understand the why for all of these people who have not and are not desiring to go back into the labor force? carl: i think part of the why is the transfer payments made available earlier this year which is given -- which has given some individuals a kit -- the ability to take a sabbatical from unemployment. if you were previously in a two income household and you can string along with a spouse or partner's health benefits in their income, the schooling situation, we are still not totally convinced that it will be in person learning all the time, all of these factors are contributing to that. market performance might be more of an issue for higher income
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households and older households who are getting closer to the retirement stage. but i think it is just as endemic of this issue of not being back to normal and people still having a lot of concerns about health risks from the pandemic and from the variants and holding off. the same reason where they have vaccine hesitancy, there is a home camp of folks that are concerned that there could be breakthrough cases as a result. lisa: this highlights how difficult the fed's job is to thread this needle because they do not have control over vaccination rates or hesitancy to go back into the workforce for fear of getting sick. how much can the labor market continued to improve even if the federal reserve stops buying bonds and raises rates one or two times the market is currently expecting? carl: that would still be a very accommodative monetary policy, so the economy should still be able to grow and continue to mend the labor force as that
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happens. the change is relevant, but the stance matters as well. jonathan: we are having -- tom: we are having challenges. jonathan: technical issues. he is still going. tom: ok. carl, thank you very much. some audio challenges. technology was unleashed on carl and challenges as well. what i find so important is that he focuses on the industries of america so from jp morgan as well. the real story is about how companies adapted. given all the gloom overlay, let us remind ourselves, even with market -- the market upset, 30 5000, 566, it has been a being
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up year. jonathan: this came from bank of america. the producer just shot this one to me. "the zeitgeist is that the fed is tightening into a slowdown, but the economy hate slowing and the fed has not even started tightening. strong data will meet -- when needed -- mean inflation, a much more aggressive fed and real yields." tom: into the weekend reading, that single phrases the debate, a higher terminal rate. mohammed is saying there is a higher terminal rate and we need to have respect for it and a lot of other people, i think of michael at jp morgan modeling it out, a lower terminal rate. jonathan: this is the conversation bill dudley started. this idea that the fed will have to take things higher. tom: there is no question about it. everyone weighing in, i do not
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have a strong opinion. i have great respect for the study of a terminal rate. and, how far out? to ascertain that rate. to me the classic is seven years. people to disagree. jonathan: to make this simple and ask this in a basic and easy question, how much work while the fed need to do to tighten things up given how deeply negative rates are at the moment? lisa: especially given that a lot of the inflationary pressures are out of their control. they cannot solve supply chain disruptions or the labor market shortages that are occurring. i wonder that the markets right now are buying what the fed is selling. they are buying into the idea that they can control inflation and longer-term we have not shifted out of a low rate regime where the fed will backstop markets. what will shake that confidence and create a bill dudley type of consensus in markets? jonathan: i promised you this note, this was a close
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yesterday, 43 -- 45.77. they are looking for 4800 and here's a quote. "limited upside for equities with a target of 4800. household and corporate cash should support modest earning growth and persistent supply chain rose -- woes and china hard landing is the key tail risk. that is the calling. lisa: that is a reason why you are seeing the yield curve flattening which is the reason why there is a feeling that bank of america highlighted that you are hiking into a slowdown. we are definitely slowing down the peak recovery rates because of the comparative kinds of analyses that we are going to do. how does this end up leading into markets that are relying on the fed a flood? how much of a conviction call is going into next year that the fed will capitulate? jonathan: the ism this week for manufacturing in and around 60. we will get the services ism a
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bit later this morning for november. looking at that data at the moment in and around 60 or 65 is the estimate for ism services. tom: six months ago, six jobs reports ago, a lot of people remodeling substantially slow economies. this quarter, that quarter or the other quarter. that has gone away. i do not see a lot of research evidence of a slowing american economy. jonathan: i am always trying to follow the consensus, it does have a three handle. 3.9% is the outlook now. tom: what is the july handle? i mean we get halfway through the year, i do not see a three handle. jonathan: front half, back half, i am with you. they were talking about getting into the back end of next year, that could be one to two, i just wonder how that stacks up with our call for turning -- tapering on the fed with gdp down in the
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two's. lisa: i hear your point about all of the growth in the u.s. economy, but that is one person, if they feel like this economy is in a better shape than it was before the pandemic. what answer do you get? if you look at sentiment and inflationary reads, that is relevant when you have how much momentum you have. tom: there is a world we cover which is corporations adapting and to your point there is another world which is not about fancy people and bowties, and guess what, they are struggling. jonathan: a fancy man with a bowtie? tom: i think it is, it was unleashed on me this morning. jonathan: down eight on the s&p. -.2%. jobs day. tk is unleashed. lisa: i will give you a good translation. tom: cliff notes. lisa: this is bloomberg.
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♪ ritika: i comments are expecting another strong u.s. jobs report according to a bloomberg survey, employers added 550,000 workers in november and the unemployment rate fell to 4.5 percent. one of the questions to be answered, when will people who lost jobs from the pandemic will start looking for work. the opec group started to look at increasing production. it also said that it could revisit the decision at any moment due to high levels of uncertainty in the market. dozens of hospitals in new york are nearing capacity as the state reported the most new coronavirus cases since january. more than 11,000 cases were
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reported in five cases of the omicron variant have been found and 56 hospitals in new york had a bed capacity of 10% or less. officials will be allowed to limit not -- non-essential hospital procedures. the federal trade commission says that nvidia proposed $40 billion purchase of the company -- of a british can -- a british company is a threat. the prospects are looking dim. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg ♪
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>> what has changed is that first of all the reality of this virus is circulating in a population that is highly
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immune, that is a real concern. the good news is that at least for the preliminary data we have seen so far, which south africa has been great about sharing, is that people who are futilely -- fully immunized appear not to be going to the hospital. jonathan: that is the key point so far. from new york city this morning, good morning on this payrolls friday with tom keene, lisa abramowicz and jonathan ferro. s&p -.1%. down on the s&p 500. potentially looking at a week of losses. in the bond market the theme is key here -- is clear, eighth latter curve by 15 basis points or so. so, 142 -- 1.4291. tom: the german analysis on vaccination you got subtle tea leaves in europe. this swiss twenty-year, lower negative yield.
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euro-swisse with a remarkable strong swiss franc. as we plan for the weekend and stagger through this holiday season with deltek, omicron and the other greek letters, we gain perspective from a professor of virologist at the johns hopkins bloomberg school of public health and mr. bloomberg has a modest interest in this tv and radio platform as well. i want to talk about the reality of johannesburg, pretoria, and the rest and i want to look at and internationally acclaimed virologist in south africa. tell us the back and forth this weekends in south africa as they inform pros like you about omicron. >> well, it starts before thanksgiving. sequences were being distributed through the research networks that are focused on covid-19 before thanksgiving.
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we saw the sequences, and they registered to us as being of significant concern on paper, but then the thanksgiving day announcements of the spread of this virus through south africa really gave the entire world a head start. my lab is ready this week to do omicron specific experiments and it is only because the south african public health and scientific community shared all of their information about sequences as well as case numbers so early. the world got a head start, and we are better prepared to handle this because of their efforts. jonathan: when will we see -- tom: when will we see results from labs such as years? dr. pekosz: two things i'm looking forward to, next week will be important to follow surges and hospitalizations, which is the two week window post emergence of the virus when we expect to see hospitalization
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rates move. remember, the rates lag behind case rates. as soon as we get isolates, laboratories will be telling us how well the antibodies from vaccine and infection cross-react to omicron. and that will be the first hint about how widely we expect this virus to be able to transmit. lisa: until we find out that information it is hard to know if we are underplaying or overplaying this new variant. what would your recommendation be to people going to christmas parties and to the office and i want to engage with other people. do you think it is time to restrict activity a little bit more? or that people need to go about their life and act as if this is just another kink on the way to recovery? dr. pekosz: right now i would suggest two ways to be proactive in a positive way. number one, vaccines, get your booster, get your vaccination if you have not gotten it. if you have been infected, get
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your vaccine because we know that that increases your immunity. we have a window of time where we has a population can increase immunity, and even if that's -- that does not cross-react, the more immunity the better and it will protect us against severe disease if omicron does begin to spread. the second thing is to think about testing protocols. one of the critical things and abide in -- in the biden plan is the use of at-home tests, that is an incredibly powerful tool for us to intervene and stop people who are potentially going to transmit the virus and utilizing those at-home tests is going to be critical to controlling this surge and let us not forget the delta surge. lisa: because your laboratory is working specifically on omicron, what is your sense of its maryland's -- virlianc -- virilance.
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they have figured out that vaccines prevent severe illness and you are not seeing as much of a surge. what is your sense of what the reality is? dr. pekosz: we need to wait one more week. lisa: darn. dr. pekosz: travelers are the primary people that have been picked up with omicron, they have a tendency to be the more highly vaccinated population. some of the data we are seeing from the u.s. and europe is really skewed to vaccinated populations. in the next week, and south africa will be the lead on this, we are starting to hear how various populations are doing with respect to infectious disease and that will be the critical thing. jonathan: always great to catch up with you. next week is going to be a very interesting week. to get the data around the variant and look ahead to inflation in america. december 10, the meeting estimate so far, x .7% year on
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year. -- 6.7% year on year. and, 4.9. tom: this is china like nominal gb -- gdp. i have never experienced this. we address this yesterday and take away all the worries that we have, it is a boom economy. you have eight or 9% nominal gdp, by definition that is a boom economy for a selected group. jonathan: think of where nominal gdp is, and where inflation is running and where the fed fund rate is. this is the point that adam was making in his research, and you look at those things stacked up, the fed has a lot of work to do on back to the point at do we really stall out, is that is where the story ends? tom: a lot of people are adjusting that process because you need to get x million people
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can -- employed. that is the constrain at moving to a normal fed level. jonathan: the important conversation is not about lift off, it is about how steep the path is. lisa: it is whether this economy has structurally shifted as a result of the pandemic and those checks sent to americans and the extra debt incurred to allow for a higher inflation rate on a more persistent basis or is this a temporary blip? that is still undetermined. lisa: i am not sure these -- jonathan: i am not sure these hand actions work too well on radio. tom: no. we still do them. jonathan: breaking down the patience and why they think the fed will not make a move on rates. at least until december 2023. tom: anthony wants me to do the bird landing. jonathan: that is the bird.
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tom: that is the bird landing. jonathan: that works too. lisa: does it? jonathan: nope. ♪
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>> this is a much more rapid recovery and we are very far along towards full employment. >> the risks on the better to the hawkish side. >> they are going to start that journey to normal and we are going to help them on that path. >> the market has positioned itself for more normalization. >> there's an extremely wide band of probabilities of where things could go from here on. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: payrolls 90 minutes away. from new york city, for our audience worldwide, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance, " live on tv and radio. your equity market totally unchanged going into that print. tom: we are waiting for 8:30 this morning, and the richness we see from the two major employment reports. as you mentioned, onto an inflation study next week.

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