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tv   Bloomberg Surveillance  Bloomberg  December 7, 2021 8:00am-9:00am EST

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>> we are dealing. >> inflation is not going away anytime soon. >> we are probably passing the peak and front end. >> the bubble is not in stocks, it is in bonds. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance." with tom keene, jonathan ferro and a lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning. we welcome all of you on radio,
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television as well. jon, buy the dip, that is what we did. jonathan: getting close to all-time highs. a rally this morning. we are advancing 1.3%. tom: 1.2%. nasdaq putting out 1.8%. and talking about apple. dan ives, we were focused on a two year yield that could speak volumes with the inflation report. jonathan: looking forward to hearing from the big bull on wall street. katie huberty of jp morgan will be joining us this morning. increasing that pride target -- price target. we are taking out the highs for the year we could have a more material conversation behind just rates in america. tom: we are serious, two hands on the wheel, please. lisa, i want you to forward a two-year to a high further year into the auction dynamics we may
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see today. lisa: you really set me up with something that you love so dearly, i appreciate that. $54 billion auction of three-year notes today at 1:00 p.m. what's the conviction around rate hikes after the first two? we know people are bringing forward rate hike expectations, but what is the trajectory from their? that matters -- there? that matters as they hike into an economy that will be slowing. tom: this is also about e.m. with jerome powell, to latin america come to the pacific rim. jonathan: you have been all over it all year. think central bank rate hikes from around the world, brazil, turkey the exception as they are going the other way. but the slowdown that people expect next year, does that become more evident in the middle of '22? can they wait? the consensus view right now,
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fully wind down bond purchasing by q1, then have a conversation about rate hikes. that could kick off in may, june, july. if you see the data going the way the lisa is discussing, can they do that? that is where morgan stanley differs. they think the federal reserve can wait. tom: td securities with an outlier call. we will get to that in a moment. i'm going to look at the vix. in the last couple days, is solid -- a solid .0930 this morning. jonathan: the nasdaq advancing 1.8%. we have talked about the front end, approaching 67 right now. unchanged. some stability here. and anybody whipsawed by crude, we're back to the 70's, to
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$71.25. tom: right now, ashleigh oakes hart is joining us from td securities. she is working on the foreign-exchange calls. the outlier here, an interesting call i yield dynamics -- on yield dynamics. very simply, how exposed is e.m. to sudden jolts right now? ashleigh: very exposed. a lot of emerging-market central banks have done work to raise rates. you mentioned brazil. we expect another 150 basis points that would keep them off the all-time low of 2%. mexico and chile also expected to tighten. they are really targeting inflation only, not growth, and they are doing work to combat very high inflation. in chile, the highest since
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2008. currencies have done a lot of work. you can see the levels of these markets, brazil, up toward 70. so there has been a washout in positioning. these markets are flatter from a position standpoint. that is not true for turkey. they are cutting rates. they are coming off high levels. which it is really just price action. the market saying there is no confidence here for turkey and its policies. that's a market where there are positions. e.m. is following along on the bad news of turkey, particularly south africa. we saw that because turkey ran across with the long turkish lira to be more neutral. so a lot of that positioning has
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not been anecdotally -- we have seen people trying to,, as turkey involved trying to sell the brand. -- rand. so, increasingly, turkey will become less relevant from a price action standpoint. and there are parallels as to what happened with argentina, topical at the beginning. jonathan: just to build on the things you said, the big contrarian call coming out of this has been the call that the fed will wait until early 2023, perhaps. how does that set you apart in the fx market? if you can get your hands around, off the back of that call, that goes against the hawkish is that banks are looking for. ashleigh: it is tricky because there has not been a real correlation between rates and fx. that is something that is frustrating and our space. does it differentiate us? potentially.
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what's concerning are the changes, the dynamics, to the extent it is getting much worse. we have reduced liquidity in fixed income. certainly friday was interesting on the back of a weaker employment number. the markets tried to rally, then sold off at the end of the session. then, obviously, we had a big day yesterday. reduced liquidity there. that is moving into g10 fx. and emerging markets, certainly. that is not something that will improve. it's something that will get worse. lisa: this is a fascinating point, especially because the logical consequence should be a weaker dollar if the federal reserve does not have to rate -- hike rates as quickly next year. you are saying that is not how it will play out based on a weakening economy and the bleed flew -- through? ashleigh: we have seen the
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dollar act as a risk asset, so the price action the day after thanksgiving we saw it move higher. but it is -- in a rate environment, could you see certain currencies outperform with the central bank being more aggressive? the central bank of england will be having a hike next week. if they were to go first, you could see a bid in sterling. we have hit big levels with commodities, .70 yesterday morning, very important. the our was hawkish this morning. they are moving higher again. so, there is no clarity here. at some point could the usb a low yielder, then we get week dollar price action on that potentially. jonathan: you see more exacerbated with it than i do and that is something. we appreciate it. good to hear from you again.
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ashleigh oakes hart of td securities. it has been difficult to read. you think the euro-dollar, the start of the year was harder. you remember the calls coming through. euro getting stronger. but it has been weaker ever since. we have come all the way down to 1.1257. lisa: and no consistent thread. really, you have not seen consistency. blackrock saying the dollar is the best hedge against downside in the equity markets. everybody has a different rationale for why they see their stronger or weaker dollar. it's not consistent. jonathan: you have lived it time and time again. how many times have we gone the dollar call wrong? tom: what i loved about ashleigh oakes hart, she has a trading history. the way that you lose money is not broad, you lose it when the bid walks away and you were
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like, oh. she has lived that. the tentativeness i heard from her on where we are going is the day that they battle for bid and ask. jonathan: it has been difficult, whipsawed over the last few months, particularly if you are exposed to the turkish lira. the euro-dollar looking something like this, 1.1258. futures are positive. there's a lift in the equity market. and cruise up. -- crude is up. it's risk on as we get back to work. lisa: yet the 10 year yield is at 1.45%, despite the fact that that people are pricing in two rate hikes next year. jonathan: we be even more. barclays talking about may. others, march. it's coming together off the
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back of a conversation at the fed about qe. i wonder how much the chairman pushes back against that next week. he wants to build flexibility, not a one-way treaty. tom: optionality. and he will say we have to wait for the data. let's say we get 7% inflation. lisa: can he honestly say we are coming and and waiting for that data? i do not think so. jonathan: i think we will accelerate the taper, then do that. lisa: they are building optionality so lincoln hike rates -- so they can hike rates. jonathan: if they want to, but not necessarily if they are going to. you think it is flexibility? tom: it is the chairman. lisa: there is always flexibility. jonathan: you want to explain that to chairman pound next week? tom: i will -- chairman jerome powell next week? tom: i will. or mckee will. jonathan: this is bloomberg.
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♪ ritika: the u.s. and europe are considering top financial action against russia if vladimir putin invades ukraine. the country will be targeted, especially currencies. present bided could spell out action today when he and president clinton have a video call. russia has denied plans to attack ukraine. the new vaccine has shown effectiveness on covid-19. it came out from canada. according to results published today, no vaccinated participants developed a severe disease and no serious side effects have been recorded. it will be tested against the omicron variant. the u.k. is moving forward to increase trade with individual states and ready to resume talks with washington on a broader federal deal. british trade minister says
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discussions are set with cal fire, georgia, tennessee, south carolina and oklahoma. she will meet with e-commerce secretary of the u.s. this week. and intel taking -- public by the middle of next year. the chipmaker will remain the majority owner of the shares listed. they bought mobileye for about $15 million, and since then the u.s. has grown faster than its parent. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> it is the semi conductor names fueling technology growth in consumer electronics, and
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that has been held back this year. because of supply chain constraints, we see them having strong pricing powers going into the middle of next year and beyond that. so with that cycle ending, we think that could no longer. jonathan: portfolio manager there. good morning. tom keene, lisa abramowicz and jonathan ferro. your equity market is advancing 1.3% on the s&p 500. the s&p advancing from yesterday. positive follow-through on the nasdaq, too. yields are higher on the back end and front end. the 145, let's call it come along 44.95. apple is one to watch. katie of morgan stanley raising her price target to $200, in line with the dan ives, who we will catch up with in a moment.
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up 2%. " despite a consistent immaterial revenue contribution from new products and services over time, apple shares do not bake in the impact from new product launches." that is the view from morgan stanley. this is up by about 25% from yesterday. tom: there is on apple. the interview of the day with dan ives, managing director at wedbush securities, he has been the apple bull. i have to ask the obvious question, do you have to respond to katie who britty and go up by a dollar or two? dan: yeah. but what i think kait is talking about -- think katie is talking about a similar to our checks. i think this is a $3 trillion market cap. you look at class, releasing --
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glass, releasing next year, that will be -- with the stock. tom: what about signaling cash flow persistency to move the stock of around 26 $.3 trillion, or dare i say it $4 trillion valuation? what is the action they have to do quarter to quarter? dan: quarter to quarter, of course the-the cycle in terms of what we are seeing, they need to execute that. i think right now they are on course with their strongest quarter ever. but when you get into the cash strategy, the buyback, they will up that in the next six months and continue to invest in new products. we think that apple glass, and ultimately the apple car, you start to put them together into this is a $3 trillion market cap as they execute. and eye view it as a renaissance of growth happening.
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jonathan: this is something that katie also said, we believe this is going to change as they approach the launch of an ev product. this is not just blue sky thinking. walk me through what they will be launching. what the product line will look like and when we will get money. dan: they have been working on this for about four years. and i think that now it is ready for prime time. why it is important from ar/br, you talk about 1.7 million devices worldwide, just like the airpods it will sell by 100 million units this year, that could be 4% or 5% of revenue in the next two or three years. and thinking about the metaverse, this will be the drumroll to what really opens up the metaverse, when apple glass comes out in the middle of 2022. lisa: how much is your call
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based on new products, based on demand, and how much of it is based on haven trades, how they will benefit from that? dan: we do not value the new products from apple. i view that as incremental. to me what is going on in terms of the super cycle that continues to play out, even though supply chain, you are thinking about 10 million units, you put that with services, we think services are worth $1.5 trillion. there will be worries in the tech trade next year, but i still think that tech stocks, apple being one of them, will be up about 20% overall. and apple continues to be underestimated in terms of what is going on. lisa: that is the reason that you could see rivaling katie who bertie -- huberty, and raising your price target? if you factor in the prices she
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is looking at, we go higher by multiples? dan: our bulky esters 2.5. tom: we have to stop the show. lisa is dead on. you have to top katie right now on bloomberg surveillance. lisa: is this a game show? dan: we can do that. but -- what lisa is talking about is important because when you look at apple, it is the forest over the trees. you start to look at new products, the modernization, it is unique to what cook is doing, not just in the u.s., but globally -- what they can do from a capacity perspective. this is just a next step in the apple growth story. tom: here is what everybody is saying, those that respect your work, particularly the bull sell side. 10 days ago, the world was
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ending. iphone sales were not going to happen. how do you recommend normal people, not experts like you, adapt to rumors out of the pacific rim, omg, apple is dead? dan: the asian supply chain, especially in the midst of a shortage, is difficult. you have to continually look at the numbers. 25% have not upgraded their iphones in a few years, that's many upgrades that will be coming. and you could even have gyrations, but this is a stock you continue to buy on dips, along with microsoft and others, and that creates opportunities when you have noise. even though the frost in -- f roth in the market. jonathan: record highs, even
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with concerns about demand issues for the holiday season. up 24.59%. i have sympathy with you. the compliance issues, i understand, you do not give a tap on the shoulder. $200. good to see you. up 60 on the s&p. the nasdaq is up 281. up 1.8%. lisa: a lift without a selloff in the long bond, fascinating giving the fact that we are talking about rate hikes, a sigh of relief from omicron, and more stimulus from china. that is not lifting the prospects for longer-term yields, i find that fascinating. jonathan: yields are higher by four basis points now. 67 basis points on a 2-year note. tom: i am worried about getting into apple or not. 20 year track record, this after the collapse of 2001.
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they have done 36% per year. jonathan: what a runner. up next, the chief economic strategist from yardeni research. this is "bloomberg surveillance." ♪
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jonathan: for many u.s.-based investors, there are two days left. friday, they cpi report. next wednesday, a federal reserve decision. and then it is your over. the s&p is advancing by 1.33%. up to 91 on the -- up 291 on the nasdaq. the height of the year in the 10 year yield is 1.77. the end of march. the high on the two-year is right now, up four basis points, 67, contributing to the flattening on the yield curve. we have pointed out, the yield curve, the distance between the two's and 10's is back to where it was, 79 basis points. tom: watching two year yield,
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0.6712. is that a big deal? jonathan: i guess, but we need to have a bigger conversation. is that it? roger tip said that we -- tom: it is a raging debate. jonathan: it is very contrarian. the market for people who think we are stalling out at 1.75, others think their rate has to go higher. tom: we talked about this earlier with loser saunders of charles schwab, and now we will extend the conversation with edward yardeni of yardeni research. long ago, high above cayuga's waters, he knew double-digit inflation, and i thought, there we go. ed, i want to go to the krugman essay last week, where he said
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simply it was a theory then, it is not now. what should we do with our collective memory of the ghosts of the 1970's, the theories of milton friedman? edward: i think he was right up until the pandemic. we did see a tremendous amount of quantitative easing, zero interest rates. central banks provided a tremendous amount of liquidity, yet there were a forces that kept inflation down. inflation was the law of the land following the great inflation of the 1970's. it was things that globalization, technological innovation, and too much debt. all disinflationary. but the pandemic changed that because it brought about modern monetary theory. we just had this unprecedented increase in government debt, deficits, and all of that was
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financed by the central banks, to a large extent. tom: from david blanchflower, hanover new hampshire, -- in hanover, new hampshire and his full opposite on inflation guess? where do you stand on that? edward: i think that there word transitory is no longer allowed in our conversation, according to jay powell, but persistent. i think it will be 45% for the consumption deflator until the middle of next year. then i think it does ease back down to about 3% or 4%. i do not think it will go back to 2% anytime soon. and i would not be surprised if the fed deals with that by raising the fed funds rate by about two or three times. but i think they might seriously consider raising the inflation target, moving gold, from 2% to 3%. lisa: people are looking at a
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federal reserve still responsive to market turmoil. if they signal that they will raise rates, and there is a tantrum, they will step in and ease conditions. how much is that magnetism, given that this is a different paradigm? edward: you are right, it is a different paradigm. we have had four taper tantrums since 2013. we had one in may of 2013, another one in early 2016, one right before christmas in 2018, then this one. but this one is a work in progress. but i think that the big difference is, this time around the fed cannot give the market what it wants, which would be, ok, back off, do not taper so much. simply because the inflation problem israel and the -- is real and the fed has made it clear that they are concerned about it. lisa: i notice in the data there
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has been a shift over the past few weeks, people are bringing down there longer-term expectations once again for inflation. it's like people are convinced the federal reserve hiking rates will allow growth to revert to something we have seen in the past, possibly lower. is that a reality? does this give them leeway to hike a couple times, let it go and have a smooth exit? edward: i hope so. maybe it is wishful thinking. the pessimism about the near term could be offset by the perception that the pain now will lead to gain leader. -- later. do not think this will wind up like the 1970's. there's some things going on right now, with cost of living adjustments already put into contracts, but i am a believer
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that productivity is making a huge comeback. the reason for that is one of the differences is there is no growth in the labor force, that is related to demography. companies will have to offset the fact that the labor shortages are not temporary, they are chronic. tom: i want to go to your book. i want to say it is a triumph in the london school of economics, where there is praise of profits and you begin with david ricardo, who changed how we think. is the profits for technology now different from those of december of 2000? edward: absolutely. i mean, in 1999/2000, a lot of the profits in technology were based on dot com companies that had no serious plan. the big situation back then was that you had telecom companies
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financing their customers. so those profits were kind of phony. there was a lot of manipulation of profits. this time around, these are real profits based on real businesses. and i think technology is the wave of the future. it always is, but now more so than ever. tom: how do you respond to the cry of 15 years that the profits are all going to a few? edward: there is a marxist view out there that if a company is profitable, it must be exploiting somebody, probably exploiting workers, may be consumers by not giving them the very best. but i make a distinction between two types of capitalism, entrepreneurial capitalism and crony capitalism. i'm in the same camp as progressive socialists when i say i am against crony capitalism. it's all about using the political system to game the
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system. i'm an entrepreneur and i cannot afford lobbyists, so i think that is the distinction between an entrepreneur and crony. i have to compete. i have to give customers the best. in my book i also argue that adam smith did a terrible job of marketing capitalism by telling us it's all about selfishness. it's insecurity. i will go out of business if i do not give my customers the best of what i am. lisa: i am sure that is a harder sell, go for capitalism, but i wonder, just to go into the realm of treating and how you position in a tenuous period, given that you fill over optimistic about productivity but concerned about the fed and how it all shakes out. have we already priced in the technology, productivity gains you are expecting, but do you think that will fuel further
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gains in the headline indexes next year? edward: i think the best is yet to come in terms of prosperity, in terms of standard of living. i think technology is going to solve a lot of our problems. but, yeah, we are not going to get the double-digit increases in the stock market anytime soon. earnings peaked in the second quarter. and that does not mean they will go down, they will just grow at a slower pace. i predict we will go to 400 by year end, then something like 5200 by the end of next year, 5500 by the end of 2013. those are single digits consistent with a increases of earnings. jonathan: looking forward to reading the book. it's on my desk. we appreciate it. edward yardeni of yardeni research.
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your equity market is up 62. nasdaq 100 up by 1.9%. bond market, two's up four basis points. 67 basis points this morning. gab lower on euro-dollar. 1.1231, tom. tom: did we get over the last 20 days to a 1.11 handle? jonathan: we did. just a number of weeks ago. we are approaching a q. week of central bank decisions, wednesday into thursday. tom: will they play the game? they had snow last week. jonathan: because of the snow last week, they are a game short. christmas period is very busy for premier league football. they do not want to postpone the game, but if they have a lot characters missing --
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tom: and we do not know who they are. jonathan: i do not know. tom: i thought you were hardwired in. jonathan: i will try to find out afterwards. looking forward to catching up with bank of america. lisa: [laughter] jonathan: you have been doing the show, too. are you so jesting tom has not been doing the show? lisa: i was thinking, where is this going to go? jonathan: i think that you have been talking about going on a spending spree. up 62 on the s&p, advancing 1.3%. this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: president biden will warn vladimir putin today that russia will face economic penalties for invading ukraine. a senior official says the
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president also will tell putin there will be benefits if he makes a commitment to diplomacy. china warns the u.s. it will pay a price for his diplomatic boycott of the winterland picks. the biden administration has decided not to send officials to the february games in beijing. the foreign minister of china says the olympics is not a stage for manipulation. instagram will encourage users to take a break. the app will let people opt to see pop-up messages when they have seen a lot of one particular topic, suggesting they look at something else. they will also suggest going for a walk. a leadership change at american airlines, the ceo stepping down at the end of march after eight years in the job. he will be succeeded by the american president. bloomberg news says it will
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continue to do all it can to help -- family one year after she was detained in china. 12 months of detention is a long time for anyone to enter and the company says they are worried about their well-being. chinese authorities say she was detained on national security law validation -- global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> we have seen input costs causing a lot of disruption in
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the industry and across several different categories. at the same time that you see costs going up, labor costs and transportation costs. we manage these closely and we do have tools to work with high inflation. tom: managing the message, an important message there from the chief executive officer at bush and bev. this is a wonderful time to speak to mr. ritholtz, the day that john templeton died. i said, get me abby joseph cohen. everybody rallied and we did a spectacular show, including with dr. templeton's son. and we asked for a peter lynch. there is a terrific story today
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on the bloomberg with an update on the vice-chairman of fidelity. and barry is joining us now on what is unique about the man who founded a certain way to invest. peter lynch was walking around the streets of boston with value line copies in his hand, making sector bets. boy, that worked for a while. barry: i have been watching the documentary from peter jackson on the beatles, they had a short tenure, but the greatest of all time. peter lynch is very parallel. it was barely a decade, but few people have put together a track record like his, especially in terms of that size. it's one thing to do it with a few million dollars, but tens of millions of dollars, and consistently beating the benchmark. it's astounding. tom: you mentioned stood tom maroney the idea that he passed that heritage onto will dan off,
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that you do not just have to be passive, there is a way to win. how do you win in 2021? barry: first, and i have interviewed the gentlemen that you mentioned, i interviewed peter lynch, and will danhoff was a guest on masters in business, and it is clear that they have a specific methodology. they have a process that the use. they continually refine that process, it is empirically driven. lots of people trying to do that, but few have succeeded. lynch gives credit to the infrastructure and support that he got at fidelity. so, in some cases, size becomes a giant advantage when you can through a ton of resources and the best and brightest at your process. lisa: has the game changed,
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though? with the increasing influence of central banks, the extreme actions and that they have taken, some say the game has shifted and you are not likely to get ahead of anyone trying to predict market moves, you have to bet with or against an index and that is it? barry: do not send me back to my college classes -- the game is always changing, it is never the same. if you are not constantly adopting and refining, you will be left behind. that's some of the things that peter lynch did, and the people who followed him. danoff, people thought he was a dinosaur, but he has consistently been on the cutting edge of tech and new ideas when younger people missed it. here is a guy that people looked at as saying, the track record, how can he compete, it is a young person's game. but you must continually adapt.
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the market is always changing. now it is the fed, before it was fiscal policy, before that it was money flow. you must avoid becoming an expert in the way that the world used to be. lisa: but when clients call and say, should we just get the composition right and we will be better off, and you say focus on the fees, but do you see there are managers who have outperformed? how do you position the advice you give based on this dynamic? barry: i will point to what peter lynch said today, you cannot be all in to the exclusion of everything else. a good concept is at the core of your portfolio, have a passive index where you are guaranteeing yourself you will get close to market results. that is the base. if you want to build around that and say i want more technology,
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i will try to identify early stage companies or emerging managers, or some successful managers, you can hang those ornaments on the tree, but passive is the key middle part of any decent portfolio, whether it is 50%, 60%. that's a great way to begin. tom: the history of this after george putnam, is why diversification? you and i remember 100, even 300 stocks in a portfolio. not peter lynch directly, but johnson and the team came up with a concept called the fidelity 50 fund, it has been merged in 2015. is it better to hold in a mutual fund or etf a lesser amount of issues, or do you believe in what phil believed in, you pioneer? barry: two parts. first-come academic research has shown us that the vast majority
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of returns come from a tiny percentage of stocks. it's like 4% in the u.s., 6% globally. if you are going to be an investor, an active investor, a stock picker, you should have the courage of your convictions and have a concentrated portfolio. if you want to talk about 50, between 5, 75, it is almost irrelevant. but it should not be 200 stocks. that's helpful. if you are marrying it to the vanguard, if you only 3000 stocks in the vanguard total market index, then you can have 5% or 10% in a concentrated 20 or 30 stock index or 30 stock actively managed set of holdings. but the combination is what makes it work so well. tom: what you just heard there from barry is the combined wisdom of hundreds and hundreds
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of years of the plan that goes back. we greatly appreciate your comments. i cannot say enough what barry said about the academic research, much of it out of vanderbilt and amherst, on too much diversification. lisa: if you have conviction, why not go with it? we have seen that certainly increasingly in equity markets, certainly among certain hedge funds. when you talk about the game changing, the key aspect here is a lower benchmark yield. when you have a lower yield point, how much more do these matter? what about being effectively active? i think that has been a challenge on an ongoing basis. tom: huge challenge, no question about it. the diminution of the rate structure over 15 years has made the active costs evermore
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painful. thank you to our team for bring it up that great story. we continue. an active day here. futures are up 59. this is bloomberg. ♪
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jonathan: good morning. we are up 58 on the s&p,
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advancing more than 1%. the countdown to "the open" star trek now. -- starts right now. >> everything you need to get set for the start of u.s. trading, this is bloomberg "the open" with jonathan ferro. ♪ jonathan: from new york, we begin with finding opportunities in the volatility. >> this time around it will be volatility. >> it will be macro volatility. >> it will be fed hikes, it will be virus, those types of things. >> the fed is taking away the punch bowl. >> they will have to move more aggressively. >> it will create interesting opportunities. >> is a great time to be an investor. >> volatility is here to stay. >> that means pockets


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