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tv   Bloomberg Surveillance  Bloomberg  January 4, 2022 7:00am-8:00am EST

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♪ >> washer 2022 be any different -- why should 2022 be any different from 2021? >> we are still in a very accommodative place. there's a lot of cash from central banks. >> omicron is turning out to not be a huge threat. >> we are still significantly underestimating the earnings story. >> i think the so-called everything rally continues. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: the road back to normal is a bit of a bumpy one. from new york city, for our audience worldwide, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance ," live on tv and radio. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. your equity market up 17, advancing 0.3%. tk and bramo back in the seat. tk, we've got to work on getting you back into the office. tom:
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hopkins university. i think the kind of talk we are hearing from doctors and the pros is going to dovetail into public policy. the markets are betting on that right now, with s&p futures at 4800. i don't want you to get emotional. i am quoting spx this morning. jonathan: i am emotional. i am just so happy you're back. for financial markets, for investors, for market participants, they are moving on big time. lisa: they are moving on, and to me, i thought jim reed of deutsche bank had a good point this morning, that perhaps the only place you can see the influence of omicron is the consumer cyclicals not doing well enough. people are pricing in some sort of disruption there. basically, people aren't bullish enough. that is the zeitgeist. jonathan: out of all the market
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moves we saw to kickoff 2022, we went straight to the bond market. they are the moves waking up in 2022, telling bonds yields higher. tom: the correlation across other asset classes is really nuanced. resilient dollar i guess will be the call. a single digit this morning, dollar-yen nicely through 116. that speaks volumes about the dispersions wrapped around a poignant market -- a buoyant market. jonathan: let's whip through the price action for you. on the s&p 500, futures up 17, advancing 0.3%. on nasdaq, futures up 83, also higher, north by 0.3%.
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yields higher by almost a basis point on the 10 year at 1.6368%. what a week. we are hitting the ground running big time. all of that concluding with payroll this friday. lisa: and how much do we see those job openings really surge, and that people meet those jobs and see the employment rate and the participation rate increase? today we are looking at oil. opec-plus is beginning its meeting to discuss output hikes. when you take the question of how much our repricing in, how long will the omicron variant disrupt travel, it is probably not going to be for that long. they are expecting the surplus to be lower than previously expected, and this to me really highlights the round-trip we have seen in crude prices back to levels pre-omicron in november as people expect that
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demand picture to really firm up as the year continues. today, the ces technology conference is back in person for some people at the las vegas convention center. it is a great litmus test of how much in person events can actually happen right now. you have seen a number of cancellations, whether it is twitter, amazon, t-mobile, facebook. they see cancellations only account for about 7% of the exhibit floor. at 10:00 a.m., this is what everyone is watching today, the ism manufacturing data. how much has the omicron variant increased the supply disruptions, even if just temporarily? and then those job openings, 1.5 jobs per unemployed american. that is basically what we have seen, surging towards 1.6 jobs for each unemployed american. what is going to bridge this gap? does it come down to people eating into their savings enough to force them back into the labor market at a time when it does seem at the pandemic is
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entering that endemic phase? jonathan: anyone interested in the estimate right now, 400 to 4000 is the median estimate. at the high-end, 1.1 million. ian shepherdson of pantheon, do you think we need to get ian on later this week for the month of december? tom: absolutely. i think the jobs coverage into friday is going to be really key. i got to editorialize here. i know i have been out of the loop. frankly, it has been just fabulous to have you carry the load completely. can i editorialize and say, i'm sorry, meta, i don't get it. it is not based. t-mobile is based. jon ferro is based. guess what? meta, not. jonathan: that was tremendously helpful, tom. i have missed you. thank you.
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joining us now, mona mahajan, senior investment strategist at edward jones. then lately joined us to kickoff 2022, looking for a fourth straight here of double-digit gains after a gain of 27% on the s&p last year. i understand you are looking for gains, but not more of the same. mona: absolutely, and happy new year. i think the good news for investors is this market probably does have some legs. what we are calling for is an era of moderation in 2022. for us, that means not only moderating economic and earnings growth, moderating inflation to some extent, moderating fed policy support, but also moderating returns. we do expect s&p returns to be more in line with earnings growth, which we see as single digits this year, but expect a little more volatility. as you noted, in the fourth year
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of this tremendous bowl run for the s&p, we will probably get more normal levels of volatility pullback historically. that has meant one to three corrections in the 5% to 10% range. the good news is that those bouts of volatility could offer opportunities to maybe add to or diversify risk. tom: as human total return, less than total return, the dispersion of return we saw in 2021, the financial times with a superb summary of hedge fund underperformance that we have seen. does the dispersion of return continue? mona: if you look at the s&p 500, the headline does not really tell the full story of what is happening underneath the surface. 2021 with a great example of that. we had a rotation into value as the vaccine rollout happened earlier in the year, but after
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that we saw a rotation back in the growth, a rotation perhaps back into value as the delta variant waned, but towards the end of the year we saw a little bit defensive moves. we saw defensive sectors like health care take a leadership role in the last month of 2021. we expect a little more of the same this year. we expect the year to begin perhaps a little more strongly driven by the value cyclical rotation. we expect at some point we will get another reopening 2.0, a little softer than what we saw last year, but we would definitely recommend having a more balanced portfolio as the year progresses and comps get harder for value and growth slows a little bit, perhaps still above trend. we would expect areas like growth, like defensive's, like those quality names to briley pick up the mental. so a more balanced approach to portfolio management this year we think makes a lot of sense. keep in mind, our old friend
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tina does come back into play, there is no alternative. investors are putting new money to work. where do they go? in an environment where liquidity is waning, they are looking for large liquid markets, and the u.s. equity market does come front and center once again, at least for now until the global story picks up. lisa: do you get the sense that a balanced portfolio is the way to go, and just owning the index continues to be the best bet at a time when the rotations happen and it is unpredictable when? mona: i think investors that have owned the index have done well over the last three years and will continue to do well this year. to tom's point an active management, it has not performed , and all investors are looking for some alpha. in our view, owning and s&p five is part of the strong balanced portfolio, and part of that
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ownership will help you in the long run. this can become limited by certainly parts of active management that perhaps do give you outsized exposure to a value sector or a growth sector, depending on where you're under weights and overweight's are, so it is important to have a combination of both, but certainly we are in favor of having some exposure to indexed etf's, index management as well. jonathan: always awesome to hear from you as we look to the year ahead. mona mahajan of edward jones. as we move towards a federal reserve decision, some people consoling any rate hike for the month of march. the questions we are asking, show me why i should hike in march or show me why i shouldn't. this from citi moments ago, andrew hallman horst and the team. "wind margaret -- andrew hallman horst and the team.
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the base case, for what it is worth, is june. tom: they have to see. there's a lot of economic data to come out, including the jobs report. you mentioned the dispersion of the jobs report. i am going to suggest that most fed policy comes back to the measurement of fully employed america and the measure of this wage inflation that is maybe there, maybe not there. we just have to get the data, and they are massively data dependent. jonathan: i am pleased to see you are still employed, tom. i had my doubts, you were gone so long. tom: it was a month. jonathan: you're the one guy that is on covid and you tell me you are perfecting your grown a -- your negroni. futures up 17, let's call it 18.
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we are higher by 0.4%. this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika. at&t and verizon say they have agreed to a two-week delay of 5g deployment sought by u.s. authorities. the carriers had vowed to go ahead with launching their new services this week, and defiance of requests from officials who say the 5g signals might interfere with aircraft electronics, posing a safety risk. natural gas surged for a second day in europe. benchmark european gas jump as much as 10%, extending monday's rally. supply is set to remain constrained after dropping to the lowest since february. the uae is said to be at risk of getting on a list of countries subject to more oversight for not doing enough to combat on a
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laundering and terrorist financing. newburgh has lengthy financial action task force is leaning towards adding the country to its gray list. that would be a big step given the uae's position as the main financial hub of the middle east. blackberry devices running the original operating system and services will no longer be supported after today. the company formerly known as research in motion said handsets running in its in-house software will no longer be expected to reliably function after today. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> i think it is crucial for congress to pass some sort of voting rights reform or else we may be abdicating our democratic voting process and letting elected legislators or appointed electors of elected officials decide what the vote is after peoples's valid votes are discounted. jonathan: that was jane harman, president emerita at the wilson center. jonathan ferro, with tom and lisa abramowicz -- with tom keene and lisa abramowicz. tens at 1.64 20%. this headline from a u.k. spokesperson. "nothing in the covid data shows that more curbs are needed." that was the feeling coming out of 2021 into 2022. that was the direction of travel for the british government. tom: let's rip up the script here.
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there's a two day test, a five day test, and a pcr test. is it you're reading that prime minister johnson will move away from the certitude of a pcr tests over to a more antigen test? jonathan: that i don't know. i can tell you that rapid tests are more easily accessible in the u.k. than, say, new york city right now. i shared this experience with our audience last week. it was as simple as going on a website, entering your address, and then getting sent a pack of seven rapid tests the following day in the u.k. that is how easy it was. i am reflecting on a press conference with the press secretary who very starkly said, what would you like us to do, send everyone a rapid test? that is precisely what has been happening everywhere for a while. the u.s. has been playing
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catch-up and has been criticized , and justifiably so, over its effort to make sure there was enough access to testing through the winter period. tom: we will have to see where that is. we talk about omicron with our annmarie hordern earlier this morning, and amesh adalja of johns hopkins university. joining us now from washington, mario drops by with his coverage of the white house. what is so important, mario parker, is the idea of what the president does with his congress. what i noticed during my covid was democrats in retirement. how close to retirement is nancy pelosi, who nears her 82nd birthday in march? mario: that has been the wave. last night, a surprise for me. a native chicagoan, representative bobby rush, the
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only person to be barack obama in an election -- to beat barack obama in an election, says he will not run again. there has been this older guard of seasoned and veteran democrat lawmakers, and now folks are wondering when they are going to start heading for the exit and whether it is time for new leadership. nancy pelosi is not immune to some of those considerations at all. now there is talk about who may be potential successors. maybe hakeem jeffries, pramila jayapal, what it means for the direction of the party, the ideology of the party. we have seen these fights for weeks, for months between centrist democrats and the far left. tom: lisa has some more timely topics here, but i have to digress we are true expertise on chicago. all of us worldwide were appalled by the weekend in
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chicago of violence and crime. give us your window, your treatment into the violence of chicago. when people speak to you about it, how do you respond? mario: well, it is very nuanced. chicago is a city that i love, that i grew up in. it raised me. it is a tough city to grow up in , but it has some intrinsic problems, whether it is segregation, the legacy of segregation and aftereffects of that as well, but it is sad to see the city in the state that it is. i am hoping it will open up for some type of resurgence there. there are people on the ground in chicago working really hard to make every day better at the community level as well, really taking things, democracy into their own hands, and really going out to serve their community, so i am early hoping that takes hold. lisa: this morning we are
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talking about chicago, about omicron, about where covid tests are. we are not talking about build back better. i wonder how much this exemplifies that we have lost the plot on that, at least according to the democrats. have the democrats lost momentum enough to really push this through? mario: on build back better, the thought is that they still have some hope, that may be cooler heads may have prevailed over the holiday period. everyone kind of retreated to their corner. senator manchin, folks at the white house as well. the thinking at the white house is that they are still going to try to get this passed. build back better, for better or worse, the democrats put all their eggs in that basket as they look towards the 2022 midterms. so it is incumbent on them, from their vantage point, to get this across the finish line, to have something for people to go back home to an campaign on. jonathan: do you think they need to work on the branding? if they had the word china in
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it, do you think it would be easier to pass this thing? mario: there was some talk a few months ago among political and marketing consultants about whether or not that was the best way to brand this package. jen psaki, the white house, and others are always apt to point out that the initiatives are quite popular when they are polled. the problem is, according to even some democrats, is the fact that folks just don't know what is in the package. they don't know what is in build back better, so they feel as though the white house and the democrats could have done a better job of having something a little snappier and something that would show what is in those packages and what it means for the country. jonathan: great work, as always. great to hear from you. mario parker in washington, d.c.. there is still a feeling we get something done here.
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what that something is, i don't know. there is a feeling that we get something done. tom: greg valliere this morning with a really optimistic note, noticing the yield move, and he folds that into what we will see on fiscal stimulus, whether it is a little trillion, a big trillion. i guess it is in the cards. i want to note, and i think it is important, that social media is a huge force for our global and national audience, and this morning we have a perception, and on bloomberg radio i think this is something that needs to be explained, there is a point where, when your fans are asking you to clean your windows in your background shot, i mean, this is important. jonathan: let's be clear. let's clear this up. they are not telling lisa to clean her windows. they are offering to clean lisa's windows. that is the difference between
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us and lisa. they are not telling her to clean the windows. [laughter] tom: what is so important here, windex really doesn't work. the pros use a little but of dishwashing soap in it. i can tell you from personal experience, it works. jonathan: from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪
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♪ jonathan: tuesday morning. good morning to you all. live from new york city, this is "bloomberg surveillance," with tom keene back in lisa abramowicz hitting a hard time already. clean your windows, brutal. s&p advancing 0.2%. yesterday, the banks did well. you can slice and dice this anyway you want. yields higher. twos and fives, highs we have not seen going back to 2020. five year yield pushing out. your two-year yield pushing higher, just short of 80 this morning, pushing 80 yesterday. 1.6 i've 77% -- 1.6577%. switch up the board and finish
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on this one. dollar-yen right now, 116.27, up 8% on that is yen weakness, levels we have not seen since early 2017. it has been five years since we have seen that kind of level on dollar-yen. tom: really important to see dollar-yen out there. this is how we live. on tv you can see this. on radio it is a little but hard to see, but we will give it a shot. this is the bloomberg on a cell phone. this is how we do this remote. this is our lifesaver chariot -- our lifesaver. jon and i live on this at davos. there it is, the 30 year yield out to 2.04%. we are thrilled to bring you ian lyngen, noted for a hugely precise note each day at bmo capital markets. thank you so much for starting our 2022. i want you to give us a prima
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right now on the certainty of terminal rate. how far out is your study of the terminal rate? is it out seven years, or do you have to bring it in? ian: i think this is a pivotal time for a conversation about the terminal rate. the fed has given us rough guidance that it will be 2.5 percent, but there's two distinct camps. there's a camp on one side that says there is no way we are going to be able to sustainably see policy rates above 1.75 percent. on the flipside, there is a group of investors that feels very strongly that we are going to need to see at least 3% during this cycle, maybe even 3.5%, and that really does hit the five year sector of the curve. that is why, as you pointed out earlier, we are continuing to see underperformance of fives and increasingly the two-year sector as we move closer and closer to that first rate hike of the cycle, which will be this
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year's business and will really redefine expectations for the outright level of rates. tom: mohamed el-erian writing in "the financial times," mixing up the interest rate dynamic with inflation and the fed policy. part of that in your world is with a vengeance, the foreigners show up to buy price. do the foreigners come in again and buy u.s. paper? ian: without question, there will be overseas sponsorship or treasuries. the biggest unknown at this moment, and what we at the market are grappling with, is at what level does dip buying become attractive. overall dollar strength puts u.s. treasuries into a particular light if you are a foreign investor. moreover, if you have relatively contained inflation expectations
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, which generally speaking, given where we are in the cycle, one would argue it becomes a real yield story. what struck me about yesterday's yield selloff was that the bulk of the price action occurred in real yields, not in breakevens. so this is a growth story, not an inflation one at this point. lisa: let's step forward to the end of the year. will real yields still be -1%? will they be -0.75%? where will they be positive as people assess what the fed policy will be? ian: i don't think we are going to see a positive 10 real yield this year, but we are not going to be at -100 basis points by the end of the year. we will be a lot closer to zero, and that will be a function of two things. one will be an increase in nominal rates, but also inflation and inflation expectations are going to be contained further as the fed
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starts its tightening campaign. lisa: i do wonder, given the fact that so many people are bullish, whether this kind of goes against that because a lot of what has been driven in the tina, there is no alternative trade, has been in rates. does this raise questions for you when you talk to your colleagues who are all bulled up on risk? ian: as the fed starts to take away some of the accommodative monetary policy that has defined the last two years, we are going to see financial conditions tighten. as financial conditions tightening, real yields go from very negative to less negative. it follows intuitively that we would look for concerns in risk assets, equities in particular, and that is why the fed has such a difficult task ahead of them. they need to engineer a soft landing, and if we think about historically, that is the one thing central banks struggle with, taking the right amount of accommodation away to avoid a
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correction in risk assets or even a technical recession. jonathan: what do you consider a removal of accommodation, and what do you consider to be tightening? what is the difference between the two? ian: i think the fed would say we are in such a massively accommodative stance at the moment that we don't actually flip to the point where we are tightening until we are done with qe, potentially even starting to shrink the balance sheet, and policy rates are at least above 1%, if not 1.5%. jonathan: this is not just semantics, though. do they need to see tighter financial conditions to achieve their objectives? ian: i would say no because what they want is to have the capacity to address another crisis or another slow down and take the edge off of the inflationary pressures. the inflationary pressures are going to work as they have been
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and will continue to, and as long as the fed feels they are prepared for the next crisis, the fed does not need to see financial conditions per se significantly tighter, unless they really believe inflation was risking becoming self perpetuating, and that that would be a situation where we had even more sick and wage gains and a depressed labor market participation rate, which we start to see reverse at the end of november. tom: an unfair question, but that is what we are doing today. we've got s&p futures piercing 4800. i am out on the dow 3700 watch, waiting for jon to give me permission to do that. what does your bond world tell equity investors now? ian: we have been saying the same thing for quite some time to equity investors in that part of the world, and that is the fed and the powell put are very real.
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it is not an issue of the outright level of equities, but rather any potential severity of a correction. so 80%, 3%, 4% down on the year over the course of several quarters, not a big deal. even 10% to 15%, not really a big deal. it is if the price action is dramatic, occurs quickly, that is when the fed will be at fault. as long as the corrections are within a range, they are buying opportunities, and the fed's overall stance has been so accommodative that with real yields so low, it does fall to a degree that real yields will outperform. lisa: do you think the fed will ever be able to shrink its balance sheet? ian: i think it will attempt to shrink the balance sheet again, and while there is an argument that they might have learned their lesson the last time they attended to decrease the overall size of the balance sheet, i think at a minimum, they want to
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have all of their assets in treasuries as opposed to treasuries and mortgages, but that transition in that process, i think from an optics perspective, why let might technically be a bit more powerful in terms of monetary policy, the optics of raising rates in the face of inflation i think is much more important, so we will get through several rate hikes before the fed really starts to consider winding down the balance sheet, so i would put that as a 2023 issue. jonathan: interesting. ian lyngen of bmo on this on market, fed policy as well. tom, you mentioned that paid from mohamed el-erian in "the ft." both the fed and markets have a huge stake in inflation coming down in an orderly way, but the window to achieve this is rapidly closing. the view from mohamed this
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morning in "the financial times." tom: what is so important in this is dr. el-erian is so strong in game theory, and what he gives us is this or that. the key thing for me is the timeline. do they do this in a controlled manner, or is they a sense of the uncontrolled -- or is there a sense of the uncontrolled? who says they have to be uncontrolled? perhaps they can be measured and confident. that is what the bulls are saying right now. jonathan: this conversation has moved so quickly. andrew hollenhorst and the team publishing, "fed officials will need to explain why they are not hiking in march." it is not a case of show me why i should. it is show me why i shouldn't. that seems to have been a shift over the last couple of months. lisa: especially because the fed itself kind of edified that feeling by accelerating the
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taper. i am also looking at rents. people talk about how rents lag home prices. we have seen home prices increased so much that the rent impulse will only accelerate as the year goes on. lagged effect of that really adding to inflation. how did they get ahead of that? they have to do it in good order beforehand, which to mohamed el-erian's point. jonathan: tom keene and lisa abramowicz working away from home. i can just say, the daylight coming through now, they look better. they look cleaner. lisa: thank you. i really appreciate that. jonathan: in the commercial break, lisa was blooming the window cleaners on the outside of the window, not the cleaning done on the inside of the window. [laughter] lisa: it is true. it is not my fault. tom: let me jump in here. with the daylight, i think the secret is out. she is off the boulevard there in paris, and i think the view of paris is just exurban. -- is just extraordinary.
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jonathan: that is where she is now? lisa: right, i'm on holiday. jonathan: from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. more than one million people in the u.s. are diagnosed with covid on monday at the omicron variant continues its sweep. that record number is almost double the previous record set just four days ago. the highest number outside the u.s. is when more than 400,000 people were diagnosed in 2021. according to a company filing, job cuts will take place in march, with the lender set to wind down its prime services wing in march. it comes after the archegos collapse.
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the white house is expected to nominate economist philip jefferson for a seat on the federal reserve board of governors. he would be just the fourth black man to hold a position in the bank's history. jefferson is an economic professor and has worked at the fed twice before. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> i think inflation will lightly move lower than
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7%, but it will be a consistent problem for the fed. the fed is reacting now to the inflation data, and that reaction may actually come sooner in terms of short-term rate increases. jonathan: gene tannuzzo, the global head of fixed income at columbia threadneedle. it is 2022, with a little flavor of 2020. with tom keene and lisa abramowicz working from home, i'm jon ferro in the studio. no one likes the taste, the sprinkle of 2020, duvet? you -- do they? crude higher, up $0.20 on the day. that exist to kriti gupta and her chart of the day. kriti: good morning. we have to talk about the opec meeting on the agenda. the major theme of 2022 is inflation, largely being driven up i oil prices. let's talk about what opec has done historically because they have come under a lot of
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scrutiny from a lot of oil consuming nations. japan, korea, and the united states saying you have to fight those inflationary pressures. oil output coming all the way back to 1999, and how quickly or how much time it takes to actually recover some of that output after a recession. after the -- after 2008, it took seven years. they are using a slow and steady approach in terms of hiking output, and they are able to do that because they are meeting some of those fiscal breakeven rates. saudi arabia breaks even at $78 a barrel. brent prices hovering just near $80. similar story for russia. there breakeven rate at $69 a barrel. so they are making money. those concerns of 2020 is not really the case anymore. tom: kriti gupta, thank you so much. the microeconomics of oil,
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always fascinating, with huge uncertainty around it. part of the uncertainty we see in our spectacular hydrocarbons surveillance of december was a bet on 100, 120, 100 $50 -- $100, $120, $150 a barrel oil. today, brent crude near $80 a barrel. we get an update from our will kennedy on the oil market. what is different about this $80 brent versus the last time we were at $80 brent? will: i think most people will expect $80 not to be the top. some people expect it to go a lot higher than here, and we may see some softness through the first three months of this year. but i think the overriding idea is that we are going to find spare capacity, and these opec
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meetings are going to become quite moot if we don't have a massive reversal in the global economy or something severe. we will get to the point in the middle of the year will opec is pumping everything will barrel it can. at that point, the market will just keep pushing higher. tom: opec is about politics as much as it is about economics. there is the announcement that the leader of turkey will meet with the leader of saudi arabia. explain the importance of that to the oil community, the erdogan will meet with the crown prince. ian: i think ash will: i think it is part of the broader picture for the -- i think -- will: i think it is part of the broader picture for controlling
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the oil market. there breakeven at a time when they are producing close to as much as they have ever produced in history means that the dollars are pouring into saudi arabia, and with those comes a lot of political and economic cloud. leaders will have to talk to mbs -- economic clout. leaders will have to talk to mbs where they want to or not. lisa: the shale patch really isn't coming back online as many people expected. a lot of people think that we have already seen peak shale in the vacuum error -- the back view mirror. will: that may or may not be true. for opec, oil is going to be in demand, but the one thing that could upset that only supply side is a resurgence in shale.
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it has been muted, but it has been creeping higher, especially in the permian bays in. if we get oil going far beyond $80 a barrel, it may be that that process accelerates. how far that discipline continues is an incredibly important question for this year. lisa: we are talking with you as the opec-plus meeting is underway. they are expected to increase their output 400,000 barrels, expected to bring online about 2/3 of what was taken off-line in 2020. when we expect into get back to where we were pre-pandemic. how quickly can they do that, given some of the supply constraints you are talking about? ian: on paper, it should happen towards the middle of this year. that is what the schedule suggests and what the 400,000 barrels a day increment gets. the uae, many countries took a bit of a hammering ring the
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pandemic, and the slump in oil prices, they haven't been drilling. some of those opec countries are struggling to keep up, so the actual increases are below what they are promising outside saudi arabia and the united arab emirates. so we may get less than half the 400,000 barrels a day that they will claim to put into the market. so it is going to be a real struggle, but they may catch up. at these prices, they may be able to close some of these gaps, but it is clearly another thing for the market to watch this year, and another reason that would add to the bullish argument for oil. jonathan: well, great work. great to see you. accrued up 0.4% on wti, $76.40 on brent. tennis star novak djokovic will
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play in the australian open, even though there are rules borrowing unvaccinated players. we have a statement from determined organizers that go on to say djokovic applied for a medical exception, which was granted following a rigorous process involving panels of medical experts. one of those was the independent medical exemption review panel appointed by the victorian department of health. they assessed all applications to see if they met the australian technical advisory group on guidelines. so he gets to go forward for number 21. tom: we are making it up as we go. i think that is really what we are seeing here, whether it is vaccinated or unvaccinated. we all have our stories about this. i had about three days that were difficult, i would say. what i want to do is really listen to the medical community and what they think about the movement of unvaccinated people. we are making it up.
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jonathan: tom keene, lisa abramowicz, and jonathan ferro. your market advancing around 0.25%. from new york, heard on radio, seen on tv, for our audience worldwide, pushing all-time highs, this is "bloomberg surveillance." ♪
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>> i would not be surprised if you do see a 7% handle when it comes to the overall rate of cpi inflation. >> inflation is probably the biggest concern for markets in 2022. >> i think we have had the peak of inflation pressures on margins. >> fiscal stimulus is being ebbed to some extent in overkill. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: starting a new year with bond yields breaking out. from new york city, for our


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