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tv   Bloomberg Markets  Bloomberg  January 7, 2022 1:30pm-2:00pm EST

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telling employees to get a shot or face termination, according to a message to staff. office workers who don't comply by january 14 will be placed on unpaid leave, and our last day of employment will come at the end of the month. moderna's chief executive officers as another round of vaccine boosters will probably needed this fall, this after u.s. regulators amended the emergency authorization for moderna vaccine to allow americans to get a booster five months after receiving the initial first two shots. the supreme court cast doubt on the biden administration's rules to require vaccines for workers. in a special session, the court's conservative justices voiced skepticism about the rule which business groups and republican led states --
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justice sonia sotomayor did not return to the courtroom with her colleagues today for the argument with coronavirus surging again in the capital. she responded remotely from her office. global news 24 hours a day, on-air, and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. this is bloomberg. ♪ jon: i'm jon erlichman. welcome to bloomberg markets. >> here are the top stories we are following for you from around the world. the u.s. and candidacy record jobs growth, rebounding strongly from unprecedented losses. we discuss how payrolls put more pressure on the fed.
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labor shortages sweep the restaurant industry as covid cases search, wages rise, all in an attempt to attract workers. we will talk to tom colicchio, the owner of crafted hospitality. citigroup taking an aggressive approach amid the covid search imposing a no jab, no job mandate for employers. jon: that will be a helpful conversation. the major averages have danced around a little bit and what has been a tough week on the s&p 500 , set to have a negative one. the interest-rate story plays a key role in what is happening with stocks. the nasdaq 100 could end up having its worst week since february of last year. we have seen technology stocks get hit hard. on the other to the fence, a lot of interest in financials that is continuing today. bank earnings next week to watch
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out for. you have these different dynamics in play in the market. and then we have this new lens to look at it through with those jobs report that you mentioned. that gets us to our next segment, what it is worth. we will dig into canada and the united states. there is a look at the canadian numbers. 54,000 plus jobs. this was a stronger number than what was expected in the market. it was a complicated end to the year. you heard about the covid uncertainties into the holidays. people were surprised to see a strong number. when we look at the story overall, like in the u.s., the wage picture is going up, and that gets people talking about central bank moves. alix: the headline number disappointed but that paled in comparison to the 3.9% unemployment rate, below 4%, natural rate of unemployment.
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you have to wonder if they have to adjust that. average hourly warnings also climbing. deutsche bank and j.p. morgan now see rate hikes starting in march, seeking four this year. you see that in yields and tech. jon: companies also trying to do what those labor shortages, investing more in their future. what does that mean for some job opportunities? let's have a deeper conversation about this. dana peterson is the chief economist at the conference board. the headline reaction when you saw these jobs numbers today? dana: i was not surprised to see a number close to 200,000. we know, at the end of the year, omicron was a big issue in terms of hiring. many people were getting sick, could not get into the labor force. certainly, for in person services jobs, it made sense that they were not hiring.
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we certainly saw a lot of cancellation of events. today's number was not terribly surprising for me, but it is a strong number, good enough for the fed to continue to pursue its path of accelerating qe taper, raising rates three or four times this year, begin to think about rolling off the balance sheet. alix: let's start with the rate hikes. does that mean marches in play and four hikes are in play? dana: i think everything is on the table. the key is inflation. looking at today's numbers, wage rates were up 4.7% year on year. over the last nine months, 7%. that is astounding. it reflects the fact that we have the labor shortages, which is a function of the pandemic, but also the aging labor force. some have retired and are not coming back. but all of that feed into consumer prices. next week, we will see the cpi report.
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in the last segment, we had people guessing what kind of handle we would have. certainly, the fed is concerned about inflation. jon: i want to pick up on something i alluded to in the start of the show, we have had conversations with economists, if you are having a harder time getting your workers -- we keep talk about this labor shortage. sometimes that may flow to other areas, capital investing, new technology. what is happening with this labor shortage could impact where money is spent on the economic roadmap ahead. are you seeing that in your numbers? dana: it is what we are hearing from our members. automation is an option here. we cannot find workers especially in those in person services that are public facing, may not have high wages, so we are looking to invest in these areas of technology to make up for the fact that you cannot find people. alix: does that mean that higher
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wages automatically mean higher inflation? mary daly was talking earlier, and she said we have not seen that correlation. you throw in the investment into technology, and i wonder how that evolves? dana: the key thing is how much businesses can fold in higher wages to the profit margins. for some businesses, especially very large firms, big retailers, they have the capacity to do so, raise wages, offer benefits, all things to attract and keep labor. but for a smaller firm, firms with narrow profit margins -- i think about gasoline stations. it is difficult to raise wages and not pass on those higher costs to consumers. even while fed officials are saying they are not seeing a wage price spiral brewing, it is a risk. jon: since we are going to be
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talking about different industries this hour, and certainly the restaurant industry, as we navigate the headlines on omicron, if things improve and certain industries that have had restrictions can bring back workers despite the labor shortages you have referenced, do you have a sense on with the labor story will look like in terms of new hiring through the year? dana: we think january may see another number that is subpar, relative to -- 200,000 would be a great number if we were not in the pandemic. but when we are looking for half a million jobs being added to services, we may not see that in january due to the omicron variant. the hope is that by the springtime, beyond this soft patch, which may also depress growth a little bit, we will see stronger growth in gdp and hiring. that big rebound that we need in
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those in person services. i would imagine that fed policymakers are looking at the data, saying, we are probably at full employment or very close to it. we have achieved that objective in terms of our two pronged approach. alix: let's tie this together with a nice bow. how do your members handle the different aspects of, one, the consumer is strong. on the other hand, you have quantitative tightening, rate hikes cycle that could all be condemned with the omicron wildcard. what are your members doing, how do they exist in that world? dana: we should put what the fed is about to do in context. we are probably looking at growth of about 3.5% to 4% annualized gdp in the u.s.. that is incredibly strong, and a
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sustainable rate is close to two and a half percent. we are looking at a strong background in terms of growth. labor markets are tight. even for many workers, we are seeing improvements, women and minority workers. the fed will be raising interest rates. even if they raised three or four times, we would still be looking at a 1% fed funds rate. that is still very accommodative. if they allow a runoff of the balance sheet, it will be gradual. they will be watching financial conditions, reactions in financial markets, consumers, especially regarding the housing market. certainly will have thoughts about what its policy needs for the international setting. i think the fed will be very careful. that is what our members are looking at. for certain members, they are looking for higher interest rates. it is really a mixed picture depending on the industry you are in. jon: before you go, you talked
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about the possible roadmap for rate hikes. do you have a sense on the pace of controlling inflation, how that might get under control just based on what happens with these rate moves? dana: one of the things to remember, there will be a lag between the fed's actions and inflation. the question is that lag still 12 to 18 months or nine to 12 months? we could see elevated inflation rates even though the fed is hiking, but we are looking at a strong economic backdrop where the fed can apply some tightening to allow for prices to cool. prices will cool at different rates. when we look at housing prices, they are tied to mortgage rates. mortgage rates are already moving in anticipation of higher interest rates. inflation will be a little bit slower. i think the fed will have to be
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careful, watch every index, measure, pay attention to what markets are saying. alix: we really appreciate it. dana peterson of the conference board. coming up, get jabbed or get fired. that is the message coming out of citigroup. we will have more on the company's vaccine mandate. this is bloomberg. ♪ omberg. ♪
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alix: this is bloomberg markets. i'm alix steel. with jon erlichman.
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shares of citigroup are rising partly with higher yields, but there is also a vaccine mandate that line that will see employees without the jab he put on unpaid leave and terminated at the end of the month. jenny, what was behind is very aggressive move? citigroup has always been ahead in terms of this. what was behind this particular move? jenny: they announced they were planning to make this step in october. they have given post a few months. the mandate is you have to get a vaccine or you can also lie for certain religious or medical exemptions. they have seen pretty broad compliance. at least 90%. that is a figure that is rising every day. it will be interesting to see where they end up next week. they have separately try to work with folks, introduce different programs, but they have said this is a mandate we have. if you cannot comply with an exemption or getting the shot, this is the step we are taking.
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jon: you wrote a really exit piece on this with requiring shots. it is one thing when we think about citi as the wall street player, it is another one me think about their presence across the country and the people working for the business in states like florida or texas. jenny: that's a challenge for any company that has operations in many states. you see vaccine hesitancy rate vary so much in regions of the country. any of these multinational players will be contending with that. the topic du jour, what we saw from the supreme court earlier, so every hr executive, ceo will be thing about this with more than 100 employees. citi is out in front on this, they took a leadership position, but now we will see how it gets digested from here, what other folks do. do they follow the lead or try
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to cut their own path? jon: it will be interesting to watch it all unfold. thank you so much for joining us on this. the latest on citi. we will be talking about the restaurant industry. the omicron variant has left that sector still struggling. we will speak to crafted hospitality owner tom colicchio about that recovery. this is bloomberg. ♪
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president biden: today's report tells us record wage gains especially for workers in some of america's toughest jobs, women and men who work in the front line jobs in restaurants, hotels, travel, tourism, desk clerks, line clerks, waitstaff, bellman, they all saw their
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wages at an historic high. jon: that was president biden speaking earlier today about wages. labor shortages hurting the restaurant industry as the omicron variant and lack of federal leave hurt businesses. let's get some perspective from tom colicchio, owner of crafted hospitality. nice to have you back with us. so many in the industry feel like they got a raw deal, not just because the challenges of the industry versus other industries, but at the end of the day, not everyone could get their hands on the same aid, and that is something you been talking about. tom: what is great, the federal government responded and put a small business package together for restaurants. unfortunately, only about 30% of the restaurant to apply received grant money. they were short about $40
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billion. it really puts those restaurant that didn't receive funding at a competitive disadvantage. it looked like december was starting to come around, and december is always our busiest month, but with omicron coming through, it decimated the industry. people are not going out, and it is difficult for staff. i had to close one of my restaurants because i had to take the staff and move them over to one of my other restaurants. restaurants, over the last year and a half, have added a ton of debt. ppp is essentially debt. we are really hoping that congress can get together and continue to fund the restaurant relief fund, get all the restaurant that applied, funded. alix: that is not even counting the last few weeks. anecdotally, a friend of mine is making $89 a week right now
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where they used to make hundreds because there is nobody coming to eat. i am wondering, if it is a short spike, what do we know about consumer habits and how they will come back? tom: january is historically our slowest month. things don't start to pick up again until valentine's day. we are looking at things picking up maybe by mid february. that is what we are hoping for. january will be tough. there are a lot of people that are still sick and out, people are not going out to restaurants. throw a snow day on top of that in new york, we are looking at a long winter. jon: i want to talk about how people who run restaurants have thought about how they will run them in the future. during the pandemic, i've heard you talk about, the reality is, there is not a lot of cash there.
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if nobody is coming in, you cannot lean on a cash pile. have there been any lessons learned because things have been up and down the last two years? tom: restauranteurs and chefs, we are a resourceful bunch, so be try to figure things out. our dining room was turned into a shipping department. when we are open, we cannot do that. what we have learned, we can probably get by with zero employees. as the president pointed out, those employees are getting paid more money, and that is fine. we are finding that we can probably get by with fewer. that could have some long-term effects. it has always been a tough industry. covid has just made it much more difficult. part of the problem, right now, if you are doing 20% of the business you normally do, you
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will lose money. if you are doing 70% of the business you normally do, you lose money. the problem is, i'm not going to close because the employees that are working need the money. we are paring back staff, trying to juggle schedules and do the best we can, but like i said, it will be a long winter. hopefully, omicron will be short-lived, but these debts piling up on restaurants will not go anywhere. personally, in one of my restaurants, i/o about -- i owe about $1 million in back rent. alix: that is a lot. what is the priority in terms of money flow? tom: luckily, i have landlords that are being patient. we will add on additional rent when we can, they may make the lease longer so that i can pay it, but not everyone has nice
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landlords like i do. one of mine actually completely pulled the rug out from under me. in that one graph that you put up, riverpark, i am no longer associated with them. alix: we really hope that things get better, faster. i know that winter is tough anyways, so this is worse. we wish you all the luck and thank you for coming on. tom colegio, owner and chef at crafted. for jon erlichman, i'm alix steel. the nasdaq is still off 8% the -- 0.8%. it has been a week. this is bloomberg. ♪
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♪ ritika: i am ritika gupta with the first word news. a blast of winter weather pummels the northeast u.s.
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storms don't upward of five inches -- jumped upwards of five inches. in boston, heavy snow is expected to last through the afternoon and 8.5 inches at laguardia airport. bridgeport, connecticut has 8.2. newark, new jersey has five inches. government offices were closed in washington, d.c., after two to five inches. in hong kong, about 100 70 people including officials have been sent to manda terry quarter teen -- quarantine -- mandatory quarantine. two guests at a party tested positive for the covid -- coronavirus. carrie lam criticize the party despite the pandemic warning. president biden and the first lady will travel to colorado to survey and meet with families impacted by last


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