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tv   Bloomberg Markets  Bloomberg  January 13, 2022 1:00pm-2:00pm EST

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. the department of health and human services has confirmed cases have jumped by the most in alaska, idaho, oregon, and california over the past week. experts agree the official figures are and undercount with home test kits, a some somatic infections, and test site bottlenecks all artificially driving down the reported numbers. the biden administration is taking steps to make sure americans have an easier time getting home covid tests and masks. the white house plans to buy another 500 million at home tests. the u.s. has been facing a shortage, leading to long lines at testing centers across the country. the president says the government will distribute free face masks to fight a surge of cases of the omicron variant. as cases climb, consumer prices for masks have been soaring. ukiah prime minister boris
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johnson bought himself some time without apology for attending a downing street party during lockdown. but members of his own conservative party are still angry, and that means the prime minister's grip on power is tenuous. most conservative politicians who spoke with bloomberg said they would wait for the findings of an official probe into the rule breaking party. global news 24 hours a day, on-air, and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i'm mark crumpton. this is bloomberg. ♪ matt: it is 1:00 in new york, 7:00 in berlin 2:00 a.m. in hong , kong. i'm matt miller. welcome to bloomberg markets. here are the top stories we are following on the bloomberg and from around the world.
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investors brace for a march rate hike with governor lael brainard echoing a hawkish message as she testified before the senate banking committee. all this comes back to the surging inflation which has now spread to the wider economy. john authers joins us shortly to discuss whether prices can come down anytime soon. and don't call it a comeback. goldman sachs commodities trading desk shoots past $2 billion in revenue. we will discuss what that means for the bank, as earnings are about to kick into full swing across wall street. let's check in on the markets right now. big changes right now this afternoon. little change on the s&p 500. tech stocks are leading us down, losing .8%. the u.s. 10-year yield is still little changed, but down lower now.
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it was 1.74 and some change when i first came on air, now 1.72 and some change. risk off signs. the dollar index still coming down, that has not turned around. we were at 1190 in november for the high. nymex crude coming down, 82.34 a barrel now. supply-demand still supporting prices. let's get to the fed. governor brainard testified before the senate banking committee. during her testimony, she said curbing inflation is the fed's most important task. >> inflation is too high and working people around the country are concerned about how far their paychecks will go. our monetary policy is focused
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on getting inflation back down to 2% while sustaining a recovery that includes everyone. this is our most important task. matt: joining us now is larry ray him, chief u.s. economist at fs investments. it is interesting to see brainard getting more hawkish. the thing that divided her from chair powell was her perceived dovishness, before he was reconfirmed for another stint as fed chair. is everybody getting on the same page now? lara: i think everybody is getting on the same page. back in july, i'll be at when a lot of the market didn't expect a rate hike in 2022, she famously said the risk was that transitory inflation would evaporate and we would be back below 2% inflation. so a huge swing in town that i think really reflects the fact
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that, when inflation is high, not just in energy but across the board, we are seeing it come sector of the economy, it hits lower income households very hard. that is something that has made the doves who want to make sure that we focus on full employment, that we don't try to slow the economy down too much, it's made them realize that inflation also impacts the very people that they want to look out for. matt: yesterday, we spoke with claudia, and she pointed out we have seen wage increases especially at the entry level. if you actually graph them -- i have done it in the bloomberg today -- wage increases are still narrowly beating inflation, so you are still ahead if you look at the whole of the pandemic. are lower income households able to keep some of the savings that
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they were able to build up at the beginning of the pandemic? lara: exactly right. you have the extra child care credit that is expiring. the build back better plan and try to extend that but that was not passed. what it all comes down to is the fact that there are small sectors of our economy which have experienced wage gains, when adjusted for inflation, still amount to real wage gains. but when you really run the numbers, inflation could get worse in the first quarter. it is actually likely to get worse in the first quarter. that is what is on everyone's mind. they are behind the ball on this, and they have a lot of catch-up to do. that is why suddenly these rate hikes are being pulled very far forward and they are all getting on the same page about march. matt: what are your forecasts
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for inflation, what do you think the fed can do to fight it? it seems like four rate hikes is becoming consensus. lara: my forecast for the first quarter is inflation over 7%, could get high as 7.4%. at the end of the year, i think you are back down to about 3.5%, 4%, still far away from their target of 2%. but as long as it is on a downward trajectory, they will take comfort in that. you have a lot of moving pieces when you build it bottom-up. rents are rising again. food prices have not come down, and energy is the question mark. but we think about the fed, their goal will be to try to re- normalize rates as fast as possible. they are well aware that a lot of what is causing inflation are things that rate hikes don't fix. supply chain bottlenecks.
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durable goods items prices have soared. those are things that rate hikes will not help with as much. they will have the thread the needle in terms of retaining credibility, trying to change t his. matt: what kind of growth should we expect? the main concern is the fed a titans financial conditions as it runs off the balance sheet, hikes rates, and that could affect the growth trajectory, but even four hikes brings us to 1%. lara: you bring up an important point. traditionally, when we think about rate hikes, the impact the economy with a pretty significant lag. right away, we don't expect rate hikes, in and of themselves, to slow the economy significantly. what i am looking for for real growth in the first half of the year, between three and 4%, slowing to 2% in the second half
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of the year. but this is something i want to be very specific about. for markets, we have not had to think about the difference between real growth and nominal growth. if you get 4% real growth in the first quarter, that is 11% nominal growth. that is something that remains very supportive for companies, revenue generation, balance sheets. when we think about real growth, of numbers slow down pretty significantly. bought nominal growth will continue to be robust. matt: in terms of the other appointments on the fed, i think there are three remaining vacancies. how important is that and what are you expecting? lara: i'm expecting the core philosophy of phillips curve driven policy to remain consistent enough across the
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candidates so that it doesn't really impact the consensusbuilding part of the fed. markets are going to be looking closely at banking regulation. they will be looking closely at any help the new fed board members can give to improving quality and lending and access to financial markets. at the end of the day, we have a fed who is labor the focused on inflation -- laser focused on inflation. it is not an easy time for the markets when the fed raises rates. it is not a question of if but when we will see financial market volatility in the face of higher rate hikes. in 2015, the fed capitulated and stopped raising rates. this time around, they'll be more focused on inflation. we could see the underlying economy do well, but it could be a rough time for financials. matt: the question is what they do in terms of that. we have a viewer writing in,
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asking, what if they increase more than 25 bps per hike? maybe because i said only four rate hikes is 1%. is it possible that we get more of a weird ecb style number, or maybe even a double rate hike at once? lara: i think they will stick to 25, that is a number they like. but this idea that they can only go one quarter needs to be flux of all. prior to this rate hike cycle, they would go into meetings. there is room for them to accelerate the pace once a beating instead of once a quarter. that would give us eight potentially in a year. we don't think they will go sooner than march. at the end of the day, it has been rare that they give us a 50. the last time that happened was in the 1990's. we just need to be flexible when we think about the fed this year. if they need to, there is room
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for them to go faster. it will not be easy for financial markets. matt: data dependent. thank you so much for joining us. fs investments' larry ray am talking to us about fed testimony. something that caught my eye, especially as i have moved back to new york city. apartment rents in manhattan rose to a december record. the median rent in the borough rose 60% from the year previous. that was largely due to leases with buildings, or buildings with doorman, where median rent climbed 23% to a nearly $4300 average. buildings without doorman are averaging about $2700. it is difficult to find those
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prices. the median sounds very low. as manhattan rents search, wall street pushes back its return to office. goldman sachs is saying come back in february. this is bloomberg. ♪
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matt: this is bloomberg markets. i'm matt miller. as covid cases continued to
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rise, goldman sachs has told their u.s. workers to continue working from home for now. let's bring in sonali basak. what do we know about when bankers need to be back at their desks? sonlai: after february is when things will kickoff. it is not just goldman sachs, which was the first to bring people back across the united states in full form last summer. blackstone is another interesting one. they have their private equity executives back before most banks started to talk about it. now they are pushing back their return as well to january, as well as pushing the idea that employees need to get booster shots. matt: i get the question often from viewers when we talk about banks requiring vaccines, boosters. what happens if the supreme
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court decides these mandates are not constitutional? sonali: you have a range. citigroup has been the most aggressive about getting their employees vaccinated, but others will be a little bit squeamish about it. they are not saying that they will necessarily terminate you for not being vaccinated. but they also say that if you are not coming into the office, that will be an issue for you, and your tenure as an employee. there is a lot of subtle language, and it is also not the same across regions. matt: one thing we know is that commodities trading is hot, and that commodities traders are likely to get paid. sonali: this is an incredible scoop. $2.2 billion in commodities trading revenue alone in the final months of the year. wall street expectations or the entirety of goldman sachs is less than that. you know that the numbers from goldman sachs will be better than what anyone expects because these commodity figures are blowing through what anyone
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expects in fixed income. there is also equities, which will be exciting to watch, given how well goldman sachs did in the ipo market last year. we had one quarter were goldman sachs surpassed morgan stanley in equities treating which is unheard of. morgan stanley has been the longtime leader in that business. very exciting to see how this competition will stack up. matt: makes you wonder how the dallas office did. we will be talking more about bonuses. it is bonus season. we will be hearing about what bankers are being paid over the next few days and weeks. after this week's economic data, inflation has officially spread to the broader economy, but is there any light at the end of the tunnel? we will put that question to john authers. this is bloomberg. ♪
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matt: this is bloomberg markets. i'm matt miller. u.s. ppi data out this morning showed a small gain in december, possibly signaling a hint of cooling inflation. the question of how to control inflation remains uncertain, how high it will go and how to control it. john authers wrote about the issue and joins us now. thanks for your time. what does the trajectory look like right now? i know that bloomberg economics is forecasting 7.2% in january after 7% in december. it looks like it is still on the way up. john: i think that is probably accurate. if you look at the general trajectory of sticky prices that have started to rise, you would
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expect that to continue to rise for at least a month or two longer. you also have the fact that you have the base affects for oil prices which began a sharp rise 12 months ago, do not really become positive. oil price inflation appears to be lower for the next few months. there is expectation that it will rise a bit from here. there are pretty strong headwinds that will bring it down again. the critical point is how fast it begins to move down. ppi numbers, also the numbers for flexible prices, the u.s. divides those prices that are sticky and easily changed. prices for those easily changed rose the most since the 1960's. matt: what kind of goods is
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that? john: anything where you can move the price of something swiftly. oil is a part of that. matt: kathy wood says that used car prices are in a bubble and will start to come down dramatically. i know that demand is still high. i'm watching production lines and i'm not seeing anyone really pumping them out. i cannot imagine prices move down very quickly. john: i don't want to say anything too catty about bubbles and kathy wood, but i'm not sure i would call used car is a bubble. what is unfortunate, we have had renewed supply chain disruptions in china which appears to be making things worse again in terms of the shortfall of supply, including the chips that you put in cars.
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that does put forward by a matter of months the point at which we could realistically see inflation peak and start to decline. it seems to be very fair to expect that 12 months from now supply chain issues should have ameliorated a lot, and that will help to bring inflation down. a lot depends on how long it takes us to open up those supply chains again. i wouldn't call it a bubble. it is one of the nastiest crisis is of the last few months. use prices are starting to fall from its peak, but are now rising again, which is not the people who believed in transitory were suggesting six months ago. matt: yesterday, we spoke with claudia, a former fed economist. she was saying this cannot be
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all on the fed to fight inflation. they have tools with limited effect. you are talking about supply chain issues, the chip shortage in china. this is something the fed cannot really affect. in terms of oil, president biden can call mohammad bin salman on and say, please pump more, but how would we get out of this? john: in the case of oil, what is not talked about much in the markets, russia and ukraine, major section that could be on russia. presumably, that would increase prices by rather a lot. in terms of how we get out of this, there are elements of this that the fed can control, but it can only really do so with a lag. for example, you were talking about manhattan rents. for various technical reasons, they tend to appear only with a lag in the data, and that is a
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case where higher mortgages, higher rates should bring that down over time. matt: we have seen mortgage rates getting back up, the highest since pre-pandemic, although it still seems like very little to me. john authers talking about inflation and how to fight it. coming up, apple's most important chip supplier is set to spend $40 billion to address the global chip shortage. tsmc with some legitcapex. we will bring you the details. this is bloomberg. ♪
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mark: welcome to the bnn and bloomberg audience. i'm mark crumpton with bloomberg first word news.
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the biden administration is taking steps to make sure americans have an easier time getting at home covid tests. the white house plans to buy another 500 million tests. the shortage has led to long lines at testing centers across the country .global news 24 many have faced trying to find masks. president biden: next week, we will announce how we are making high quality masks available to americans for free. i know that we all wish we could finally be done with wearing masks, i get it. but they are an important tool to stop the spread, especially of the highly transmittable omicron variant. mark: as covid cases klein, consumer prices for masks been soaring. the u.k.'s prince andrew has been stripped of his titles. buckingham palace as his military titles and royal patronages have been returned to
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the queen with her approval and agreement. more than 150 navy and army veterans wrote to the queen, asking her to strip andrew up his ranks and titles. the prince is embroiled in a sexual assault lawsuit here in the u.s. he denies any wrongdoing. the weather phenomenon blamed for south american droughts, mild weather in the south, and heavy rain falls across the pacific northwest could linger for four more months before he begins to fade. there is a 57% chance lanina will vanish by july as ocean temperatures across the equatorial pacific get closer to normal. this is the second year in a role in nino has taken hold -- lanina has taken hold across the globe. global news 24 hours a day, on-air, and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i'm mark crumpton. this is bloomberg.
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♪ jon: i'm jon erlichman. welcome to bloomberg markets. matt: i'm matt miller. here are the top stories we are following for you from around the world. as the chip crunch continues, tsmc unveils record spending plans for 2022, signaling the end to semiconductor shortage is far from over. as the chip shortage affects automakers, honda is expected to announce manufacturing electric vehicles in the u.s., as demand remains in question. speeding into the public market. andretti acquisition announcing its ipo. we will speak to michael andretti about his new venture. i am very excited, obviously. jon: surprise, surprise.
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i'm looking forward to that one as well. let's get people up to speed about how things are playing out in the markets. equity wise, we are seeing red. tsx, s&p, and nasdaq all lower. we did see the yields on 10 and 30 yields at the lowest point of the day. initially, it felt like there was a willingness on the part of people to step back into stocks. we saw that yesterday, saw some of the inflation data and saw perhaps inflation is cooling off. but we had this commentary from fed officials, so there has been a lot of movement. salesforce, apple, microsoft. that gets us deeper into this story. we want to get to what is happening on the inflation front. on the ppi front, price paid to u.s. producers, they decelerated
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in december, but still remaining elevated on annual basis. matt: absolutely. any change in the data for one month does not a trend make, as they say on the street. we have seen a consistent climb in cpi from november. bloomberg economics is forecasting 7.2% in january. the story we are about to talk about well illustrates, there is so much demand out there, production has not yet ramped up to create the supply that is necessary. jon: let's get into it. the market have been watching the story of taiwan semiconductors spending a record $30 billion last year on factories that turn out chips. this year it has decided to up the budget to as much as $44 billion.
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the bloomberg intelligence team has been tracking this story. what was your reaction to this news? mandeep: this is a validation that semiconductor demand will last for a few years. we are nowhere close to supply meeting demand. this is a real bellwether. all the chipmakers, i think it signals that they will do well. when you look at high-performance computing, automotive, ai, there are all of these megatrends that are combined to create this. the thing about tsmc, it is the only one that has those particular process nodes. they are betting that competitors cannot catch up with them. that is likely to be the case. matt: in terms of how much production is necessary to meet the demand, will this do it?
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everyone across the industry seems to be ramping up capex. no one seems to has the firepower that tsmc has. i'll be going to end up in this situation down the road? will be and up in a situation where we have a glut of chips? mandeep: not in the next three years, based on our estimates. the reason i say that, if you look at intel, which is likely to spend 25 billion dollars to $30 billion in capex this year, they are at a much lower process. what we saw in tmc's print, half of their revenue is coming from the five and seven nanometer production. no one else has that. tsmc will continue to run at full capacity, and you are right, it takes a while to bring these new fabs online, so it is not like they can announce and
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tomorrow there will be in additional supply coming out of factories. it takes time. that is why they are continuing to give this roadmap that they will invest here. jon: given the environment, you think about big companies, customers like apple, who would have been in the position to do more business if they were able to, but since we are talking about the auto industry, it's worth highlighting. when everyone talks about car prices and the navigation the car industry has had to do, that is a part of the story as well. mandeep: they talked about price increases. raw material costs are going up when it comes to making these chips, and they are passing it on to the customers. it remains to be seen if apple or automakers are passing on some of those costs to the consumers. in tsmc's case, you can see the expansion is driven by pricing. customers don't have a choice
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when it comes to buying chips from tsmc. matt: i talk to executives that are shocked at the number of chips they need for their products these days. ducati told me that they needed a number just for the headlights in their motorcycle. on the other hand, qualcomm automotive saying that some functions are being turned over to software, rather than chips. for example, the on/off, the auto stop buttons that he used to disable the function is being changed to software rather than a chip. where do you see the trajectory of how many chips we will need in the future? mandeep: one thing that is obvious in this cycle, the silicon content that is going in a chip is growing. in a car used to have 250 dollars worth of semiconductors,
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and now you have about $1000 worth. in an electric vehicle, clearly, you need more chips, because more functions have to be done, as opposed to a mechanical car. you are seeing that trend in all areas, high-performance computing, you need more semiconducting power because you have more functions to perform. even if you automate then more streamline them using software, it doesn't take out the fact that the overall silicon content continues to grow in every product that we interact with. matt: great to have you on, thanks for being here. mandeep singh of bloomberg intelligence. andretti acquisition goes public. we will talk about the spac's public ceo's, one of them who is an indie legend, michael andretti. the other was his neighbor as a kid, bill sandbrook, also ran a
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very successful cement company. we will be asking questions not only about racing but about the business of it, what they can do with the funds they raised. i am excited. this is bloomberg. ♪
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jon: this is bloomberg markets. i'm jon erlichman. along with matt miller. we will do our stock of the hour. tpg raising a billion dollars and ipo today. greedy group to has more details. kriti: an interesting time to ipo when you see so much weakness in the ipos that have debuted.
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you are looking at one priced at $29 50 cents, in the middle of the range. it opened even higher at about $33 a share. pretty good news. raising $1 billion, and huge for a company whose market value is about $10 billion. let's talk about how much they have assets under management. this is one of the pioneers in the private equity. owned by some of the three major players in the business. let's talk about what they are benefiting from david if you look at their economic share, 51%. voting shares, 97%. you have about 5 billion that goes directly intoir pockets. matt: most important fact, tpg once owned and ipo would my favorite company of all time. ducati!
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back in the 1990's, they bought ducati, ipo'ed in 1999. thank you very much for that. kriti groups, our cross assets reporter. andretti acquisition goes public in a $200 million ipo. we will discuss the spac ipo with michael andretti and bill sandbrook. this is bloomberg. ♪
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matt: this is bloomberg markets. i'm matt miller. with jon erlichman. honda is set to announce soon where it will manufacture electric vehicles in the u.s., but says questions remain about how much demand there is for battery-powered cars and trucks. which is weird, because sales have been soaring in pretty much
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every region around the world. joining us for more is chester dawson. why is there a question about demand? we are seeing eye-popping double-digit percentage gains or electric car sales in every country you look in. chester: that is true, but i should qualify this by saying they were speaking specifically to the u.s. market. honda and the asian market is going full bore on the electric occasion. they have adopted definitely a more cautious stance here. the executive who briefed the media yesterday said essentially they see a lot of demand in certain markets like california and a few others, but not broadly. they are a little cautious about how much uptake there will be especially with so many other rivals rolling out new products in very short order. jon: i wonder how much of this has to do with at least the
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messaging of having a unionized or nonunionized workforce. we know the biden administration has been clear about wanting to have better pricing for electric vehicles coming out of unionized plants. kriti: it is interesting -- chester: it is interesting because honda has not said where it will make these ev's. i have it on good authority, but they have not announced it. to the extent they are opposing the biden administration plans to provide the most generous subsidies to u.s.-made ev's made by unionized labor, they may be thinking about making them in the u.s., but we don't know that yet. on the one hand, they want to see more subsidization to make it easier for consumers to buy an ev, even though they seem to have some misgivings or questions about how much demand there is. on the other hand, along with
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other foreign automaker brands, argue there should be no favorites when it comes to doling out subsidies, no matter where they are made, with union labor shops or not. matt: chester dawson talking about honda. honda is legendary in raising, but no name is more legendary in racing and andretti. andretti acquisition is a spac led by michael andretti himself, opened up today in a $200 million ipo. the company is seeking a target in, no surprise, the mobility sector. let's bring in michael alongside his co-ceo bill sandbrook, who i learned grew up across the street from him and ran u s concrete. michael, let me ask you about what kind of purchase plans you are thinking about with this money. it is a sizable stake.
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i wonder if maybe you are looking to buy a new f1 teeam with the-- team with the incredible popularity with the new netflix series. michael: we are not looking into the racing space, we are looking into the mobility space. this is separate from andretti sports. not to say that andretti autosport holding supported, if there is a way that we can, in our experience with the ev space. there is still a lot of team could bring to this. but it doesn't have anything to do with the racing. jon: matt made the reference to the childhood friendship, bill. i'm not sure that you guys were talking about one day making a spac back then, but talk about how this all came together, what
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the broader plan is. bill: good to be here, matt, jon. when i was with u s concrete, we had sponsored michael's son in indycar. like you said, the families have been lifelong friends. the business interaction started with that sponsorship, which led to coownership of his team with him, myself, zach brown. michael had the idea that his brand, network, racing, combined with my public company experience -- and this was over a year ago, the spac market was very frothy. we thought we could do something together. i had retired from u s concrete, and that led to our discussion today. matt: you mentioned zach brown of mclaren fame. michael says this is not about
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raising, but -- racing, but you have assembled a pretty strong team. what kind of assets do you think you should be looking at? bill: our board is very strong. we have zach brown, cassandra lee, the chief audit officer at at&t, jerry putnam, former coo of the euronext stock exchange, the former chairman of wild oats, former ceo of blockbuster, president of 7-eleven. we also have john with credit suisse. we have racing, consumer, capital markets, we have financial controls, and we have acquisition experience to allow us to look across the spectrum at mobility technologies, alternative fuels, electrification, racing,
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high-end luxury, auto aftermarket. it is a very fertile environment we are facing. jon: this is a great opportunity to explore the andretti brand and what that means. there's a lot of conversation about taking brands to new places. how are you thinking about that? there are so many opportunities in front of you right now on where this could go, so what are you thinking about? michael: there are a lot of areas that the brand could help a lot of other things that we bring as well. we bring a lot of contact. we know a lot of people in this industry. we can pick up the phone and call most ceo's or the oem's, if that becomes a tool that we want. we also have a lot of contacts outside of racing, with companies like dhl, for instance. there may be a point where that could be a tool. we have a lot of context, as
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well as the expertise, as i mentioned, within the space. our team brings a lot there. i think we are a little unique compared to everyone else out there. matt: i want to ask a question, michael, about racing. bill mentioned extreme-e, you are active in formula-e, we were talking about the netflix popularity. what do you think the future of racing is as cars shift over to electric power? can you get fans behind that whoosh compared to a v12 roar? michael: i think it is a certain fan that we are getting with formula-e, but electric will not be the only space for racing, alternative fuels. you can look at hydrogen, all types of other types of carbon neutral fuels being developed.
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i think there will be something in that space. it may not necessarily be electric for the future, but i think electric is here to stay. formula e has done a great job promoting that, working that industry. the series has been driving. i think it has created a lot of new fans that are more into the sustainability and things like that. it has been good. jon: we look forward to the new world of racing, and this new world of this andretti acquisition business. bill and michael, thank you for your time. for matt miller, i'm jon erlichman. this is bloomberg. ♪ g. ♪
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mark: the covid-19 burden on
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u.s. health care facilities is spreading from the northeast to other parts of the country. the department of health and human services says confirmed cases have jumped by the most in alaska, idaho, arkansas, oregon and california. experts agree the official figures are an undercount with home test kits and test site bottlenecks artificially driving down reported numbers. the republican national committee will prohibit its presidential nominees from participating in debates sponsored by the nonpartisan commission on presidential debates. the rnc announced the rule change in a letter, saying the party has lost faith that it's nominees will be treated fairly. former president trump backed out of a scheduled commission debate in october of 2020 after his campaign complained about debate rules and rejected plans for the candidates to appear remotely because of the pandemic.

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