tv Bloomberg Markets European Close Bloomberg January 18, 2022 11:00am-12:00pm EST
technology being hit the hardest. the close starts now. >> this is "bloomberg markets: european close," with guy johnson and alix steel. ♪ guy: european stocks off session lows, trading for 80 on the stoxx 600. technology leading the losses. energy probably having the best day. we are flirting with flat when it comes to the german 10 year, one basis point, two basis points away from zero. are we about to have a positive german 10 year? what impact will that have on treasuries? another factor impacting treasuries right now, brent crude trading $87 26 cents. it appears to be the energy market leading the rates market which is leading the equity
market. we will discuss that further. we need to throw earnings into the mix. we need to throw the m&a story into the mix as well. all of these factors impacting the u.s. markets. abigail doolittle here with more detail. abigail: it is a bit of a bearish day in the u.s. as well, not exact a what you would expect after a long holiday weekend and the u.s. stocks are down. the s&p 500, the dow, the nasdaq all down more than 1%. truly underperforming, the sox, that chips index, on pace for its worst day in nearly two weeks. that is the case for all of the major averages. we are looking at a monthly decline of a serious magnitude for most of the averages, the worst month for the sox, the s&p 500, the nasdaq going back to september. as you were just mentioning, the culprit, rising rates. the 10 year yield not so long ago was at 1.79%.
the sox right now is trading at a 21 times forward pe, so as rates go up, that drains liquidity out of the system and makes every thing looks more expensive, so this highflying stocks down on the day. however, it is not all bad. new york crude up 1.4%, this having to do with geopolitical tensions. of course, the supply and demand and the technicals very strong. oil looks as though it could go higher. speaking of higher, activision blizzard of 28%. there is so much going on today that this huge deal, nearly a $70 billion deal, microsoft buying activision blizzard, it is sort of getting lost, but here it is. activision blizzard sharply higher. guy: you look at what is happening with their investment bank, doing very well. this deal will only further augment that story. the soul advisor to microsoft. let's talk about what we have been discussing throughout the
program thus far and try and belittle together. our question of the day is a fairly straightforward one. are rising yields more important than earnings when it comes to the equity market? roland kaloyan joining us now, the head of european equity strategy at socgen. what do you think is moving these markets, the earnings story or the rates story? what is the prime driver in your mind? roland: right now, it is all about the yield. when you have such a move on the bond market, when you have such a new old on the bond yield, that is a very important factor, and what is really impacting the markets right now. but i think that if you go back in 2021 and remember, we had some barriers when we were seeing rising bond yields, and
your question about earnings, it is always getting back after a certain point in time. now it is all about yields, and in the coming weeks we are going to open the quarterly, annual reporting season, and that will be the most important for investors. guy: let's break it down a different way. to my mind, it strikes me that the yield story is important when it comes to the index level , but when you break it down a little bit further and look at which stocks, individual single names you want to own, which sectors you want to own, that is when the earnings narrative comes in. so if we break it down that way, bottom up than top-down, where do you like in europe? where do you not like? roland: it is about investing into value stocks versus growth stocks. last year was a good example. we had some rotation, and we are seeing rising bond yields.
but if you look at the index tracking value and index tracking growth overall through the year, it was the same. if you look at the leaders last year in europe which for example, what do you find? banks, the pure value play, and technology, the pure gross play. so the question could be more complex, but right now, what is clearly leading the market's value, and we are seeing some selloff on growth. the question is are we seeing enough opportunity now to jump in growth. we are seeing some sectors we really interesting. guy: technology is down by 6.26% in europe. europe has been sold. banks are up 10%. do you think that move has gone far enough? has the gap between them gone far enough right now, or do you think maybe there is an opportunity for them to widen? roland: as i told you, i like to
add some value sector and some growth sector. on the growth side, i think the technology in europe is a good opportunity right now. the story has not changed for the sector. earnings outlooks are great. tech in europe is very different from the tech you find in the u.s. we are less internet driven, more driven in europe. so we have no an opportunity to build some position on this quality growth sector at a much cheaper price. guy: what do you think yields doing europe? there does seem to be dissents at the moment that the ecb is going to lag, that inflation is not going to be a problem in the euro zone. do you think that is going to be the case? do you think there is a danger that the ecb has to pivot quite quickly, and the same way we are seeing from the fed right now? roland: when you look at the
number of the european inflation , you've got half of the cpi coming from the energy price. you've got really strong fx on the energy price. looking forward, we expect these base effect to be less of a tailwind for inflation print. i think the ecb is seeking into that. we are not at the same stage of the cycle between the u.s. and europe, and that is really on the job markets. we don't have the same pressure on wages yet, so i think clearly the ecb has more time. we don't expect the ecb to hike rates this year, so that is also one of the reasons that the market in europe is doing pretty well right now. kailey: in syria -- guy: in siri, higher -- in theory, higher rates should be better than the banks. why do i want to on the banks?
i know they are a high beta play on european recovery, but do i get better value in the united states on the banking sector because rates go higher? i appreciate the earnings at the moment, but interest rates have yet to start rising. we do see a solid economy in the united states. investment banking is going to do well. why do i want to own europe versus the united states? roland: well, and europe, what we know is that when the central bank is hiking rates, we saw that several times in the u.s. what really mattered for the banking sector is yield curve. if in the u.s. we expect the fed to tighten, even if we see a higher long-term, we see some kind of flattening of the curve. that is not the story and europe . with the ecb staying muted this year, with the ecb starting to reduce quantitative easing, we
should see a steepening of the curve first, and this is quite positive for european financials. guy: it will be interesting to see whether the fed allows this flat curve to persist. roland, stick around. roland kaloyan of socgen sticking with us. i want to talk about what is happening with the auto sector. we had some very dismal data once again from the auto sector in europe. we will discuss with roland next. this is bloomberg. ♪
guy: auto sales in europe plunging 22% last month. let's talk about what is really happening. craig trudell, bloomberg global car reporter, joining us now to discuss this. when i look at volumes, the numbers are horrible. there was a real issue in terms of the availability of new cars, particularly at the volume end of the market. from a car manufacturing point of view, this is great news. they are spending all their money focusing of the market, and that is where you make cash. craig: exactly. a complete like volkswagen, brands like porsche and audi, had a decent 22 anyone. it it -- decent 2021. it is when you get down to the bread-and-butter vw brand that they had a difficult year. it was a strategy on the part of the carmakers to devote chips to
higher value models as long a supply was going to be really tight, and also to electric vehicles, obviously for compliance purposes, but also because those are in demand and there is real support for them in this market. you saw ev's early takeoff this year for some of these manufacturers. obviously it is off of a low base, but every expectation is that this shortage is going to continue for some time, and that this playbook will be something that will see the car companies follow for months to come. guy: they have seen what is happening here. they can seen the -- they have seen that can make money and good margins with this kind of model. is this something that will persist? roland: you hear some of the car companies talking about that. they like to think they will be more disciplined on the other end of this. but obviously, there are also headlines about market share losses or compensation tied to how you are doing versus your competitors. i am sure on the other end of this, there will be some pride coming back and some efforts to
really push sales, but certainly there's a lot of talk at this point that on the other end of this, there will be more disciplined, there will be more emphasis on value over volume. guy: where are we with the chip story, and what impact will this have on residuals? craig: there is capacity coming online, but it is going to take time. the chips that go into your smartphone or your laptop or gaming console over a car, where a lot of these cars actually rely on older chips for reasons of safety and what the industry knows. they have been a little bit slower to come along to new were types of semiconductors. but they are really going to have to make that transition, in part because that is where the capacity is coming online, and because the chip companies don't really have a vested interest in investing in some of those older semiconductors. guy: great stuff, as ever.
bloomberg's craig trudell on what is happening in the auto sector. let's carry on the conversation from evaluation point of view. roland kaloyan joining us from socgen come the head of european equities strategy. what do you think about the european autos? they have had a really solid run. is there more to come? roland: a lot of good news already priced in the automobile sector. when we talk to investors, it is one of the most favorite sectors right now. we are underweight the sector in our strategy, and we got a lot of pushback from analysts on the european carmakers. i think that the supply chain constraint is a very important story, but you have also price on the raw materials. for example, for ev, the price of lithium has multiplied by four or five over the last 12 months, so that could also put some pressure on the carmakers'
margins. kailey: obviously these carmakers are having to undergo somewhat of a transition from regular combustion engines to a world of electric vehicles. i am wondering how you think about that aspect of it as we are in a world transitioning more towards net zero, a clean transition underway, and whether there more be -- whether there will be more opportunities. roland: of course, we are going to have more and more ev's on the street. that is the future, and that is the story. we would recommend to have exposure to the story. for example, when you are looking at the quantity of semiconductors you need in electrical car compared to a gasoline car, it is all most twice. so clearly this is a support for more tech companies, semiconductors. this is where you can really have some value added in the
coming years on this story. you need also charging stations everywhere, so you need more investment in electrification of the territory. some companies, utilities, some companies doing electrical grades that will benefit from this electrification story. guy: can i talk to you about your take in the luxury sector? last year a really big driver, particularly of the french market. sick of names like lvmh, a huge performer. if i take a look at what is happening now, we are starting to see these stocks rolling over. i've got montclair down by 11%, hermes down by 12%, nearly 13%. lvmh has been under pressure. what do you think about the sector right now? is this an opportunity? roland: like the tech sector, like all of the growth and quality sectors, luxury has been
taken in this wage selloff we have seen on the high expensive and quality names. we think it is a good opportunity to reenter this name. we think if you look at earnings growth it is still around. this year we expect 14% increase in earnings, and you can enter at a much cheaper price. you can enter the sector, so it is much cheaper right now. if you look at fundamentals, clearly you have this huge quantity of savings from households. that is the benefit from luxury goods because if you look at the savings, it is really on the high wealth households. that is also a support for luxury goods. kailey: in the luxury sector,
specifically in europe, how sensitive is that to china in a slowing china, and a china that has a very strict covid zero policy in place? roland: we did a lot of calculation and tried to see if there are some sensitivities in the luxury goods sector to credit in china, growth in china. what matters clearly is the consumer in china. what we think is going to be a big driver in the coming quarters, and the coming years, it is the story of more equality in china. that will clearly bring some more power to the middle class in china. this is something, if you look at the country where luxury goods companies are really strong, it is a country where you have a strong middle class. so we think that clearly, this is a support if you look at the chinese policy for luxury goods
names. guy: roland, come back again soon. we appreciate your time. you very much for your analysis today. roland kaloyan of socgen. i will get that right eventually. kailey: valiant effort. guy: anyway, we will fix that. i will practice next time. coming up, virgin atlantic sees stronger summer demand in a tricky summer. i interview with the ceo is coming up next. this is bloomberg. ♪
guy: virgin atlantic ceo shai weiss expects 2022 to be better than 2021. i spoke to him virtually as part of the bloomberg year ahead conference. shai: we are now more hopeful toward 2022 on the back of better news with respect to omicron and the fact that u.k. cases are going down. the nhs, while constrained, is coping with the situation, and of course, changes to the restrictions on travel which have moved through the u.k. and other places give us indications that this year should be a better year than 2021 and 2020.
guy: in terms of the amount of pent up demand, we have two years of people not flying, and not flying long-haul haul in particular. in terms of the kind of demand you are expect them to see, what are the early indications? shai: we are on the back of december, the best month we have had since february 2020, which tells you that things are starting to improve. a sense of demand is there. people have not really treated themselves to a great vacation or even business trips for two years. it is not determined yet how it all manifests itself in 2022, but looking at the numbers after the announcement in the united kingdom, numbers in terms of selling tickets are back to where they were in november before the restrictions, and we are looking into a pretty good summer. overall, our expectations for 2022 would be that revenues
would come in, give or take 85% to 90% of 2019 levels. first half suppressed, second-half very good. but of course, all of that assuming all things remain as they are, stable and improving in the situation with omicron. guy: what is your degree of certainty around all of this? what kind of volatility do you think you may see in some of these figures? shai: if i have learned anything throughout the last two years, it is only to focus on the things we control. the only thing we do not control is covid-19, and every time with get is contained, something else comes up. but i think the indications are this should be a much more stable year. i think it is also clear that governments around the world, people have learned that international travel can operate safely. guy: that was my interview with shai weiss, virgin atlantic's
ceo, as part of the bloomberg year ahead event. last year, you did not make it to ireland. . you did make it to greece. is the emerald isle back on? kailey: hopefully. that is a trip that got moved twice. when we talk about covid related restrictions and demand, it is also a capacity issue. the ongoing spread of the dais created real labor problems for some of these airlines. just taking about domestic travel, a lot of people have had their flights canceled in the last month or two. guy: it is interesting, 5g services start tomorrow. there has been a huge blowup about whether or not that is going to ultimately impact the aviation sector. concerns that there are not big enough buffer zones that could affect altimeters. the european close is coming up. this is bloomberg. ♪
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we are obsession lows but a significantly down day for europe to deal with once again. the london market outperforming. the commodity story helping out. dax down by .9%. all of this delivered on fairly decent volume. that tells you about the level of conviction. let's look at how the session has developed. this is how we have progressed. the big move down. relatively tight range. the narrow range. down .8%. other asset classes have a meaningful impact in terms of what is going on. brent crude front and center.
-- the german 10 year yield one basis point. two basis points away from going flat. potentially a positive bund. what impact will that have on the treasury market? euro-dollar trading below 1.14. in terms of the breakdown of how we see the sector story developing, unsurprisingly of energy outperforming up 1.23%. big-name stocks like shell having a solid date. telecoms doing well. vodafone, a goldman sachs upgrade in that space. technology is the lead loser. yep industrial goods down as well. if the grocery sector which includes names like unilever down again. travel and leisure showing a certain amount of weakness. we have seen very weak training
data in terms of auto sales in europe. auto one -- it will be interesting to see what happens with the residual value forecast. i think it is being caught up in the tech selloff we are seeing in europe. i mentioned the upgrade we have seen. the real beneficiary of what we are seeing in the market at the moment are the oil stocks. oriole. shell trading up 2% -- royal dutch shell trading up 2%. the sector leading in europe. kailey: energy the only positive sector in the u.s. as we see crude prices jumping to their highest level in both london and new york. the strength will continue. for more we bring in james herron who needs bloomberg's team that covers european oil. opec putting out a report.
there optimistic on demand. james: that is the difficulty we are having now. they promised at a bit of supply . the group is starting to struggle. we see russia we are already at the highest since 2014 in the market looks like it is getting tighter. the a spreading around the world. that poses huge risk if we were to see any outages. we saw an attack in the you eat. that does not normally happen. how likely we see a problem with one of the big producers like saudi or the uae that could send
prices shooting? james: certainly the world will be increasing relying on these countries. in summer there be no other producers in the group that have any other kind of spare capacity. there is a disruption somewhere from the cac 40 or something else. guy: thanks for the update. james herron on the oil market. it is something energy ministers are paying attention to. european financial minister is gathering in brussels and sounding the alarm when it comes to high energy prices. three of the key new faces at that meeting spoke to bloomberg earlier on. let's listen to what they had to say. >> now is the time to build up fiscal buffers. we need resilience, not only in the private sector but the
public sector. this is why we are very much in favor of reducing sovereign debt. >> and my concern about inflation? obviously so. the purchasing power of the individual citizens will be infected, and the continued spike of energy prices is directly impacting purchasing powers. we need to look beyond. >> we need to get back to stricter rules in the stability and growth packages. guy: how much more of a problem for this be question mark carolyn bain joining us now. what is your sense of how much higher energy prices can go? we have brent shooting higher, gas prices have been volatile. is that a trend we will have to get used to and you think energy prices will slowly creep higher as the year progresses? carolyn: we are of the opposite view. we think energy prices will ease
back for a number of reasons. one, on the demand side, and there is a lot of optimism that omicron has not led to wholesale travel restrictions across the world and perhaps the feeling the virus risk to oil demand has gone away. quite separately from that, and that is a bait risk on the demand side, we think the global economy will be slowing this year come in particularly we have a below consensus for china and the u.s.. that does not usually mean strong demand for oil. widely acknowledge their considerable supply risks, we do not think -- we think the market will be moving into a surplus on oil, anyway. kailey: obviously that is something that would come as somewhat of a relief to the biden administration. the white house saying they would continue to work with producer and consumer nations continue to -- what is docking
the inflation -- what is docking the administration is persistent inflation. what is the readthrough on some of those broader pricing pressures? caroline: even if oil prices stayed where they are now until the end of this year, near term price change will fall to zero. because we also have a weak sector in euro prices that will act as a drag is energy prices ease back. guy: how easy is it to read what chinese demand will look like and how dependent is it upon the zero covid policy. at seems -- it seems at the moment hard to judge whether that will come to an end when china learns to live with covid. unlikely to be until after the olympics, possibly until after the big meeting in the autumn, the big political meeting. what is your sense of how long china can keep this going?
caroline: this is not my forecast, it is our china economic team forecast, they were adamant china would not give up on the zero covid policy. there are signs that the language around the zero covid policy is starting to soft en. we do not see any near-term lifting of the policy. it could quietly disappear over the course of this year. a lot will depend on how the virus evolves as well. kailey: obviously there geopolitical issues when it comes to china. there also geopolitical issues with oil producers in the uae, the russia and ukraine issue. how do you factor geopolitical risks in your forecast for the natural gas market? caroline: we have an estimate of
the risk premiums in the oil prices, the part of the price that is not justified by the demand side. that has definitely risen recently which is probably to do with what you've been saying, the tensions with russia. we do not tend to make forecasts about geopolitical events. we acknowledge they are there and we have an estimate of how much that will add to the oil price in any particular time. guy: what goes for energy, does that apply to industrial metals? is it the same story? caroline: it is a bit different. commodity prices move together a lot. recently the energy price rise has been holding up the industrial metals. obviously it is a big source of the cost of the input to their production process.
with the industrial metals, it is much more driven by what is happening in china. there clear signs already the chinese economy is slowing. we think over the course of this year, as supply disruptions start to ease and logistic start to get resolved, the supply side of tightness we have seen reflected in falling stocks will start to reverse over the course of this year. kailey: obviously some of the metals have a role to play in the green transition and that they are involved in battery technology. i'm wondering how you view that as the world moves towards net zero, we see all of these goals rolling out, how do you view that throughout commodity lands and whether it will hurt some and help others -- through a commodity lens and whether it will hurt some and help others. caroline: definitely there are some metals that looked as though they will benefit hugely
from the transition to a green economy. in the near term we think the slowdown in china will be a bigger driver of prices. if you think about nickel, used heavily in electric vehicle batteries currently. it is about 6% or 7% nickel demand goes to ev batteries, where stainless steel is 70% of nickel demand. you need a lot of growth in ev batteries before it can be a major driver of prices. guy: believe that there. they give a much. a good start to a bad year for commodity prices according to caroline bain, chief commodities economist at capital economists -- at capital commodities. these are the final prices. a little lower during the option. down .6%. the dax and the cac 40 finishing down around 1%.
we'll talk about these markets and what is driving them on the cable show at 5:00 in london, 12:00 in new york. we are on dab digital radio, you can fight is on the bloomberg and catches on spotify and apple podcast. kailey: it is not just the -- the gilt rate the highest since 2019. we are up on the u.s. treasury as well. we'll talk about the bond market as we see the selloff deepening in the u.s.. this is bloomberg. ♪
stocks down, yields higher, oil prices higher. we came into the beginning of the year with the treasury trading around 1.5, we are now in the mid 1.8, 1.845 is where we are trading right now. the near bus ali -- vineer bhasali joining us now. let's start and talk about where we are. we have drawn very quickly from the start of the year, 1.5% to 1.8% on the u.s. 10 year. can we continue this pace and how much higher do you think we go? vineer: a great question. i was on your show a few months ago and yields were rising that and then they fell quite drastically. we have started the major move in i think what you have to pay attention to israel yields. real yields are going up
significantly, still -65 basis points on the tenure and -125 on the five-year. globally it is already. in the 30 year sector -- globally it is all red. in the 30 year sector i think there's a lot of room to go. guy: the german bunds yield is getting closer and closer to zero. do you think weekend breach it? vineer: i think weekend breach it. there are various central banks that want to depend on zero line. how long to they continue fighting the markets what inflation is running at 5%. -5% of real purchasing power every year. guy: what happens with the treasury market? at the moment there is a lot of money that has flown across the atlantic from europe and is chasing positive yields. if we start to see positive
yields more broadly across europe, if we start see a positive yield in germany for the 10 year, does that change that argument, and what we see, even if we get a little bit above zero, maybe a cap higher in terms of u.s. yields that the flow story starts to abate? vineer: i think that is exactly the way to look at it. even economists are unlikely to believe there is a big difference between negative yields and positive yields, but it is a psychological effect. if yields and europe go positive it is the result in a big shock up. u.s. yields yelp a lot of folks who by zero yielding bonds. two year greece is negative. you might be able to convert it if you are a japanese buyer or some of those low yields to higher yields by doing currency hedges. currency hedges are short dated in nature but bonds have a high duration.
the risk is towards prices of long bonds fallen globally. guy: let's talk -- kailey: let's talk about the impact on the equity market. our question is is it yields driving equities more so than earnings? what is your answer? vineer: i think it is. everyone knows there is three factors that control prices, the cash flow, the idea of cash flow, then the discount factor. people have lost sight of the discount factor has exponentially created an increase in prices of all assets come equities in real estate and so on. as yields shot up, especially real yields, i think all assets will come under pressure. we saw a decade of correlated asset prices. couple of years of correlated asset price selloff.
guy: you go up the stairs and come down the lift shaft. is that what we are going to see over those years or will it be more gradual? vineer: my view is certain asset classes will be unofficially declared protected asset classes because the world is so highly levered. equities, and the long run equities will be safe, which is a strange thing to say, that equities are the safe asset classes. all central banks know is they cannot let equity markets fall too much because if they did that could result in a very negative wealth effect. bonds i am not so sure about. i think bonds are going to be the sacrificial lamb. kailey: talking about the central banks reaction function intolerance for turmoil in the market, how has the fed put shifted. what would make them change course if more hawkish moving towards tightening does start to
derail the equity market? vineer: that is a fantastic question. every central bank has three objectives, whether official or not. unemployment they solved. inflation which they are suddenly fixated on even though the market has been telling them for a year inflation is a big problem. the next one is financial instability. inflation will result in a panic, maybe over tightening, which they have to do. that results in the markets breaking, maybe credit markets breaking. the fed put is further away than people think because right now inflation is problem number one, which has not existed for at least 10 years. kailey: great to get your insight. that was vineer bhansali. this is bloomberg. ♪
kailey: let's take a look at where the markets are. a down day. abigail doolittle is looking beneath the surface. abigail: is certainly a down day on the s&p 500. i have the dow on the board, also down 1.3%. the worst day since november. that gives us key information. today's decline does not look all that bad. we have the nasdaq down 1.6%, but he also have the banks down sharply, plus the russell 2000 down 1.9%. not a lot of places to hide on an index level. on the year it is a different story. great rotation on the year as yields have backed up, as oil has gone higher. the energy index is incredible. up 16.6%.
this was last year's top sector, up more than 45%. usually you see the sectors change over. over the last 13 months we have the energy sector up 60%. the financials had been up sharply, but because of the recent decline around earnings, looking a lot sharper than the declines we have for the tech indexes. talking about the technicals, this is interesting because there are market adages. what we're looking at is the s&p 500. in blue it is 100 day moving average, in yellow the 200 day moving average. the s&p 500 is through the 50 day moving average. you can see a fourth test, the adage the first time you buy the test, you sell the rest. we could see the s&p 500 touchdown on to that 200 day moving average, perhaps for the first time going back to 2020. guy: an set up into this year. we have technicals we need to be
paying attention. the process at stuff i'm finding fascinating. as abigail said, we are seeing the selling spreading out a little bit. abigail doolittle, thank you very much. today we get a spacex falcon nine launch. 49 satellites on board. tomorrow morning earnings. united airlines will stop u.k. and german cpi plus u.s. housing starts. the bank of a lid before parliament. kailey: also tomorrow the u.s. secretary of state travels to kiev to talk more about ukraine and russia. also verizon and at&t will launch their 5g service. coming up an exclusive interview with former u.s. treasury terry steven mnuchin -- treasury secretary steven mnuchin. that is on balance of power. this is bloomberg. ♪
westin. david: from bloomberg's world headquarters in new york to our tv and radio audiences worldwide, welcome to "balance of power." concerns overfed rate hikes and what they will mean for the economy continue this week. the reaction in the markets we welcome abigail doolittle. there is reaction continuing from last week. abigail: we have stocks down on the worst since september of last year. the dow at one point down 1.6%, the worst day since the end of november. that is important. this year is all about rotation. today we have the banks down because goldman sachs put up a disappointing report. this is everything to do with rising