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tv   Bloomberg Markets  Bloomberg  January 31, 2022 1:00pm-2:00pm EST

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report and rule breaking parties found failures of leadership and judgment and criticized what it called excessive drinking during coronavirus lockdowns. >> personally i want to say sorry. i am sorry for the things that we typically didn't get right and also sorry for the way that the matters are being handled. >> they say london's metropolitan police are investigating 12 gatherings and downing street, while the country was under strict lockdown rules. the u.s. requested an open meeting of the un security council to discuss russian military forces on ukraine's borders with russia and belarus. >> we continue to believe there's a diplomatic path out of the crisis caused by russia's unprovoked military buildout. we are working to pursue diplomacy in every possible venue.
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but we also know that diplomacy will not succeed in an atmosphere of threats and military escalation. >> the meeting took place one day before russia takes over the rotating monthly presidency of norway. the u.s. continued to push for a diplomatic resolution while russia called u.s. concerns a bold narrative. putin says he has no plans to launch an invasion. a coalition of environmental groups and other democratic aligned organizations are launching a lobbying campaign to pressure president biden to get the senate to move on this all -- on the sal stalled -- on the stalled payment plan. the climate action campaigns as the goal is to encourage the president to keep his promise to take bold action on climate change by cutting carbon pollution in half by 2030.
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global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm mark crumpton. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> it is 1:00 p.m. in new york, 7:00 p.m. in berlin. welcome to "bloomberg markets." u.s. stocks staged a rebound. equities in the green as investors prepare for more volatility ahead about a week of corporate earnings. we will hone in on currency and follow stocks, as the dollar hits session lows. plus brent crude has posted its strongest january in over 30
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years, as director moves more troops to the border of ukraine. we will hear from the u.s. envoy to nato amid the tense geopolitical situation. and the latest on the virus front as well. canadian prime minister justin trudeau testing positive for covid while china faces a lot of hurdles ahead of its winter olympic games. all that and more coming up this hour. let's check what's going on in the markets. it's been the time to tune in if you want to see volatility over the last few trading sessions. the s&p 500 staging a comeback, up 1.2%. down about 7% so far for the month of january. this is the last trading day of january. tomorrow starts the year of the tiger. the nasdaq up 2.4%. tech stocks are really leading the way today. in terms of the gains. the dollar index down half a percent, hitting its lows for the session. 11.84 here. we will talk about what's going on in the dollar. and the u.s. treasury yield,
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still gaining but now under 180. at 179.09. it's been a tough week, a tough month -- a tough last month as well. we will talk about the portfolio as well. you see losses on big caps as well as treasuries, rates, investment, etc. breaking news on sony -- it is going to buy bungee for $3.6 billion. if you don't know it, bungee is the maker of halo -- a very popular videogame. a predecessor to call of duty in terms of the first-person shooter games. this, after we saw the big acquisition from microsoft. these videogame makers are in play for sure. that is a story we will follow for you as well. oil is also something that really caught my eye today. it's headed for the biggest january gain in at least 30
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years, trading above $90 a barrel come on track for a 17% gain this month. -- a barrel, on track for a 17% gain this month. top banks and oil companies are saying price may soon pass $100 a barrel. the geopolitical situation on the border of ukraine is driving prices even higher. another move in the markets that's gotten investors' attention as the u.s. dollar, it is weaker today but had really been strengthening over the latter half of the past month. near levels we haven't seen since november of last year or the drop of 2020 in risk assets and the flight to safety in safe haven that the dollar turned out to be. will dollar optimism fade due to the hawkish pivot by central banks? or will the boost to be appeal to the greenback? let's ask matt chandler, covering global capital markets for -- capital markets.
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thanks so much for joining us. if we see 3-5 hikes, does that scare people away from risk assets into the dollar, does it make the dollar more attractive with higher rates? >> very good question. since the fed vivid more hawkish look, the dollar has been planning. later this week, the perils on friday, there are banks talking about a negative trend. the federal reserve is also looking for weak u.s. growth in q1. the atlanta fed has a gdp tracker. they just begun looking at what's going to happen q1. their initial estimate, 0.1% annualized. the market seems to me is getting ahead of itself. i think i even saw one big talk
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about seven rate hikes this year. the market is more reasonable than that. i think was going to happen is it's not just a q1 slow down. but monetary tightening. fiscal tightening. it took us several years after the great financial crisis to get this kind of fiscal tightening we are getting this year. plus he talked about the price of oil. it is double now since november's election. the last three u.s. elections were preceded by a doubling of the price of oil. last week, we had a very strong q4 gdp, 6.9%. while over half, closer to thirds -- two thirds of it were related to building. i don't think we can count on it. is until winter the economy -- it is a tailwinds for the economy. the second half of the year is going to be below 3% from me, and i think that is what is going to carve the aggressive fed tightening being priced and.
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matt: what about the safe haven appeal of the dollar? especially as we see political tensions ratcheting up on the border of ukraine? to investors go to the dollar? -- do investors go to the dollar as much as they go to the swissie, the yen? >> people view the markets -- it is hard to have experiments. what we can do is look back at 2014, when russia went into ukraine and remember it annexed crimea. was very little stock market reaction -- there was very little stock market reaction. there was not as much action as one would expect. many will expect this to be contained. even though the u.k. and nato are amassing more troops. they are in defensive postures. they don't really plan on fighting the russians.
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therefore we see this geopolitical tension ease relatively quickly, even if russia and russian bond market and ukrainian bond market, under more pressure -- to me that is the next step in this, ukraine needs financial assistance and uncle sam is going to be there. matt: you mentioned zero, swissie, -- euro, swissie, the yen, what are the most important pairs for you right now? >> the dollar is essential. one of the ploys for short-term participants is the overall risk atmosphere. on friday, last week, we had a couple of things lining up with the australian dollar. one is risk was coming back on. secondly the rba meets this week. we meet later today. or tomorrow morning in sydney. they are likely to be less -- than they have been. -- less dovish than they have been.
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it is a measure of how far the rubber band can stretch. it was too far. on top of that, and the futures market, speculators have nearly record short policy positions. it seems to me that combined with the risk atmosphere, the rba meeting, the markets snapping back today, with other currencies, there is a general risk environment helping the australian dollar. matt: we call that wonky, mark, and we like it. what do you think about the european -- the euro and the pound? we are looking at possible second rate hikes in a row from the boe. whereas nobody is making real bets on the acb moving. -- ecb moving. >> it is happening today, you were right until last week.
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it is really remarkable what happened. how hard it's been for this year not just in equity markets. the euro breaks up higher. that seems to be unsustainable. another the euro is moving to the downside. that is proving unsustainable. i think what is happening now is the market -- we saw earlier today germany reported much higher than expected january cpi. it means the ecb is going to rate hikes sooner than they have let on. the ecb meets on thursday. they are likely to push hard against that. the bank of england also meets thursday. they are likely to not only raise interest rates, but a second time, but they indicate when they get to their base rate, their key short-term rate, when they get it up to 50 basis points like what happened this week, they will be allowing their balance sheet strength.
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while the federal reserve is not going to let the balance sheet shrink until the middle of the year, the bank of ireland -- will do of england -- the bank of england will do it earlier, likely around march. matt: marc chandler, thank yo. -- thank you. coming up, we will hear about that tense geopolitical situation on the border with ukraine. that's next. this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> this is "bloomberg markets." let's get back to the breaking story, sony is buying bungee -- the u.s. videogame developer behind halo. for $3.6 billion. let's bring in jason schreier, who covers video games for bloomberg. this to me is absolutely fascinating, because on so many different levels -- mainly, bungee made halo, which made the xbox for microsoft, right? the even owned bungee. now that microsoft is buying the maker of call of duty, which is kind of the successor to halo, sony, the owner of playstation, is going to buy bungee, what is going on here? >> it is absolutely wild. you are spot on. it is this weird tryst of -- twist of fate. bungee is a creator of halo.
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without halo, there would be no xbox. microsoft would not be in gaming retina. so it is absolutely wild that bungee is not going to be part of microsoft's biggest rival in sony on the playstation. we are starting to see the -- it will be a while before we see the ripple effects of this acquisition -- but it's not going to make bungee's game explosive to the playstation, as it has with other acquisitions. -- exclusive to the playstation, as it has with other acquisitions. matt: is that a good strategy for these game makers? exclusivity? because i've spent countless hours, may be more dollars on call of duty and halo -- but part of the draw is that i'm playing against so many other people around the world. a lot of whom are on a playstation, even though i play on an xbox. >> yet. it's interesting. i think that there is a future
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of gaming and many have pointed this out, it is platform agnostic, you will be able to pick up any game on any system, even sony, which is traditionally the big exclusivity company that put all of its games only on playstation -- even they have been dipping their toes into the water of pc gaming and putting bigots with subtitles on computers as well -- big exclusive titles on computers as well. we might see an end to this excellence of a strategy. it helped them sell over 160 million units. because people bought that thing to get -- so they could play things like that more uncharted. it's interesting. there are a lot of pros and cons to each strategy. matt: if they can find a consul, right? it's been so hard -- console, right? it's been so hard to find these things. what is the next company that is simply? investors are probably
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looking for the winning ticket in terms of the next videogame maker. who was out there that could be bought? >> yeah, there are a few, the big one that i think is going to be the next tempting target of acquisition for the big tech giants is ubisoft, the maker of assassin's creed and far cry, they have had a weak last couple of years, due to poor sales and cultural issues, like with the sexual conduct scandal that they dealt with a couple of years ago. i suspect they will be on the market shortly. man, today's deal is the third massive acquisition of this year -- already. it is still january. we have had three massive ones, between take to buy and zynga, and microsoft buying activation, now sony buying bungee, it is out of control in the videogame industry. matt: jason, thanks so much for joining us. jason covers video games for us here at bloomberg. it's been massive in terms of the m&a activity.
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still ahead, trouble in beijing. the olympics coming closer. covert creases -- covid cases increasing in a bigger rate than last year's games. we will speak to a former olympian on the impact. and the programming note -- the future chief officer interview, you can find that on or go to youtube. this is bloomberg. ♪
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matt: this is "bloomberg markets." covid cases in beijing are mounting, with more than 100 over the past three days, with the olympics opening just days away. the total number already exceeds the number tokyo had last year. joining us is a senior scholar
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at the johns hopkins center for health security at the bloomberg school of public health. also an olympic medal winner and rhodes scholar. what i think is fascinating is, you did your dissertation specifically on how the media and public policy intertwined -- around ebola. what do you think about how they are intertwining now? before we got to the young -- to the olympics, just in general, when it comes to covid? >> i do a lot of work and misinformation, so these days when it comes to covid, when it comes to the barriers between getting ourselves out of this pandemic with vaccinations and people taking the repercussions, i think that communication, media, those play a critical role. you can have a perfect countermeasure and it doesn't work if people will not use it. matt: what can we do about that? that's been the question throughout the pandemic. how do you convince those who are vaccine skeptical -- especially if it breaks down on
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partisan lines, to go and get the shot? >> i think it comes down to getting to a more local level, i don't think from a national level that people are going to listen to people as much. they already are distrusting of the government. it should be people who they trust in the local community talking to them about it, people on the soccer sidelines, those type of things to get people and their kids vaccinated. matt: so the swim team captain. [laughter] let's get to the olympics, then. china has followed a zero covid policy. they are sticking to it. yet they are still hosting the olympics. what does that mean to you? >> i think that that just up the difficulty. we have an incredibly transmissible variant of covid right now, circulating the globe right now. it infects more people more easily. we have more breakthrough cases. angina has set itself up to have very little -- and china has set itself up to
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have very little margin for error with its zero covid policy. it raises the bar for how we can get through this for the olympics. matt: and how will we get through this for the olympics? this olympics is going to have an asterix after it? we finished watching the australian open and rafa -- you can make an argument that he was a great us of all time, but djokovic wasn't there. >> different athletes can be available or not available, it can sometimes come down to hundredths of a second. things vary. i don't see it as an asterix. but i do see as people arrive in beijing, we are going to see covid cases as they do the entry tests, covid cases are highly over the country, all over the world, and beijing doesn't want to see those cases in their country, they are doing entry testing, and we are going to identify a lot of cases. hopefully those numbers of cases being identified go down over time. as people are identified early
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on. matt: if you pull out and looked down from the 45,000 foot view or a longer-term time window, how does zero covid policy affect all of us? i mean, it does look like in the future they are going to have a difficult time. if any waves come back. because they haven't built up an immunity in such a populous country. any problems spread quickly around the world. >> i think that zero covid always begs the question, then what? what is the exit ramp for that strategy? i don't know that building up immunity for infection is the necessary way that we should think we are going to get out of this pandemic -- but we are seeing that there are breakthrough cases in some of the vaccines they are using and people are going to need to figure out how to sort of operate with covid as an endemic disease. i think other countries are figuring that out. it's going to be a difficult moment, when they switch out of
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the zero covid policy. i'm not exactly sure what that step is going to be. i think it will be hard. matt: thank you so much, doctor, from the johns hopkins center for health security at the bloomberg school of public health supported by michael r. bloomberg, the founder of bloomberg lp and bloomberg philanthropies. coming up, bared naming its top tch picks for 2022 -- top te picks for -- top tech picks for 2022. here's the s&p 500 infotech index come up 15%. the nasdaq gaining more than 2%. the s&p up more than 1%. this is bloomberg. ♪
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mark: british prime minister boris john chen after an interim
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report into will breaking calls for the report caused failures of leadership in judgment. the report criticized excessive drinking. >> i get it and i will fix it. and i want to say to the people of this country, i know what the issue is. it is whether this government can be trusted to deliver and i say, mr. speaker, yes, we can be trusted to deliver. mark: you u.k. civil servants report says london metropolitan police are investigating 12 gatherings at downing street while the country was under strict coronavirus lockdown rules.
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canadian prime minister justin trudeau has tested positive for covid-19, four days after going into isolation because one of his children contracted the virus aired the prime minister says he is feeling fine and will work remotely this week. he broke the news in a tweet reminding canadians to get vaccinated headache and boosted. the u.s. will issue a new round of sanctions against myanmar, one year after the military seized control of the government in a coup. it is the latest step that has led international sanctions against the military government while supporting diplomatic efforts to get the regime to stick to a plan, including stopping conflict with civilians. global news 24 hours a day, online and at quicktake on bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i'm mark crumpton. this is bloomberg. ♪
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matt: -- here are the top stories we are following for you from around the world. earnings season continues as tech moves into the spotlight, investors bracing for results from alpha get -- alphabet, and the biggest companies in the world. truckers continue to line the streets in ottawa protesting covid 19 restrictions. we look at the latest. president biden meets with guitars leaders for shoring up -- with qatar's leaders for shoring up possible energy in case russia invades ukraine. >> when it comes to major
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averages in the final trading day of the month, shaping up to be the worst since early in the pandemic, we are seeing a good amount of green in north american trading, whether the s&p or the tech heavy nasdaq, up more than 2%. the idea of investors willing to jump in and test the water with technology stocks, with a netflix or spotify and matt mentioned the fact that this is a busy week for earnings and maybe without that with apple of what could happen if some of those numbers and outlooks and up being better than expected. at the end of the day, it has been a tough month, and that is true if you go for balance portfolios. that gets us to today's for what it's worth. we to look at the world of fixed income. 60-40 is one of the splits we talk about.
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we are set for the worst monthly slide since the meltdown in the early days of the pandemic. a lot of up-and-down movement. we are looking at monthly return and when we talk about the. of january 20 with the 60/40 split between could days -- between equities and fixed income, 5% is the noticeable decline of equities and losing ground in the bond portfolio, about 2% based on the aggregate bond index. as we look back on this chart, we see 2018 as well as we moved to the end of this chart. another period were a fed tightening conversation really did start to change basically the balanced performance. you can see that in 2018 and where we are now. matt: i love this chart and i love that we brought it to the
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full screen is now you can see that her that this month is shaping up to be the worst month for the 60/40 since the pandemic began in march of 2020. the real problem is a 60/40 portfolio is the kind of thing that teachers, cops, joe sixpack , the canadian and u.s. retail component that is so important out there. so when they have a bad month with this kind of conservative holding, that makes you ask, how much are they willing to spend and how much can they drive the growth of the economy going forward? when we have a difficult time for big cap stocks in the safest fixed income, it is a real problem for the entire economy. jon: it is true. it speaks to the fact there haven't been a lot of reliable places to hide. in the equity market we talked about the outperformance of
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energies into a lesser extent financials. we know that 5% down for balanced fund is frustrating for some and some of the hard-hit technology stocks, much bigger declines so far this month. matt: it makes you wonder if people are going to move to preserving capital rather than looking for gains. a lot of retail investors probably busy with a million other things that they don't have time to focused on anything but a 60/40 portfolio. some of the most broadly held companies in the world, top large-cap stocks 2021, and those are tech stats -- stocks. joining us to explain is colin sebastian, baird senior analyst. someone might age thinks of big
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tech stocks and i think about risky bets on companies that don't make money and are just revving the top line, but we are talking about woodchip companies, broadly held, high revenue companies making a lot of money and profits. colin: that is right. even though some of these large companies we know and use, google, facebook, amazon, they have also been under pressure from the market perspective. that being said, they all benefit from tremendous secular growth trends in e-commerce and online advertising and digital media. still plenty of reasons to be bullish on these companies over the medium term and long term, even as technology changes and the pace changes. matt: we have got to the point where we expect these companies are going to do well continue to
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exist and it is unquestionable. i remember when that was the case for a company like nokia p what has to happen to make a household name sort of disintegrate in a matter of years? colin: what we have found historically is companies that underinvest in technology and underinvested in engineering hires and they had the hardest time sustaining their business, customers, growth prospects. i think that lesson is loud and clear to most of that technology leaders today, including those we are talking about. things like the metaverse that sounds very abstract to a lot of people, but that is the next generation of the internet and the fact that facebook or meta is investing $10 million a year in that suggests they are trying to remain relevant with their user base and not be the next nokia. jon: so far in earnings season,
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we quickly jump to conclusions. netflix comes out dealing with disappointing outlooks, competitive threat, and all the sudden people are worried about the technology earnings. then apple comes out and the sentiment starts to shift. with the flavors of tech we are going to get this week, are there other dialogues you think we will be talking about why friday? colin: i think we will be talking about the e-commerce survived the tough comps from the last holiday period and there will be accelerating growth there. in online ever ties in, a lot of talk on privacy and how are platforms like google and facebook managing those privacy constraints schumer takeaway will be that they are getting that are at it, although there are still headwinds on their businesses. i think those will be a couple
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of the takeaways. the engagement trends are still very strong. there is competition from tiktok that we have to analyze and meta is trying to offset that with its own applications. i think the takeaways will be that businesses are like the salad and looks even stronger as we get to the second half of this year. if nothing else because growth comps it easier. matt: just to reiterate, coming into this year, it was names like these two, amazon and meta that you were seeing as the better picks for 2022 are you still feeling that way now? colin: we certainly do. google or alphabet had a strong year in 2021 search advertising and youtube performed well in the face of headwinds. this year, we think amazon with both the retail and cloud computing division should seek
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stronger, faster growth. and meta, after all of the headaches they dealt with last year with respect to privacy concerns and regulatory headlines, we think they are in a better position to perform this year. jon: thanks very much,'s colin sebastian baird. a senior research analyst with a lot of stories we will be watching. polarizing protests in the city of ottawa. why truckers lined the streets in canada's capital. the latest details,. this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> those truckers have been stressed through covid and now
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the new quarantine is putting more pressure on inflation for basic commodities. a lot of the governors agree with my concerns on that. matt: i matt miller. that was the interview -- i am matt miller. that was our interview with the premier. the protests continued over the weekend. jon: ivy slate what is amazing about this is you have a situation where people wanted to start by focusing on the vaccine mandates for truckers. this really ended up being a catchall for pandemic frustration over all. and unfortunately we did see some disrespectful behavior in that nation's capital. let's bring in brian platt who has been covering this all weekend for bloomberg. i will start with that, just how this took on a life of its own as the days and hours progressed.
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brian: this may have started off as about truckers, and there are certainly a lot of trucks here and there are truck drivers here, but there are all kinds of people here, and it is very much a protest against covid restrictions in general and very much and anti-trudeau signs, profane signs. the motivating cause that started the convoy was about vaccine mandate at the border for truckers. this is a much router backlash against covid health restrictions at this point. jon: thanks very much for that, brian platt, where the reporters covering this big issue that just continues to snarl supply chains. sony is buying bungee, the s videogame developer behind the destiny franchise -- the
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videogame developer behind the destiny franchise. they are going to buy what basically made xbox. >> it is a $3.6 billion deal, sony buying bungee. the third deal this month. matt: the third big billion-dollar deal. >> this is huge. to talk about where this falls in sony's long line of acquisitions. they do acquire individual game makers. bungie is one of the biggest peer they also have a stake in other makers. bungie was behind halo. it was purchased by microsoft.
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they rolled out again in 2019 independently on the destiny franchise. coming in with lots of offers. jon: remember when microsoft activision deal popped up, you were referencing the fact that you would be watching a number of different industry players paired i guess this is the exact example of people continued to watch how this will play out in 2022. >> especially when it comes to the big tech names. games make up 30% of their revenue but 21% comes from electronic products. this is the time where you are seeing big players around the world get into video games as we continue to get exposer -- exposure to that large consumer base. jon: thanks very much. we will watch that big deal. when we come back, the state of the global energy supply. we will get inset from charlie
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riedl from the executive director for the center for liquefied natural gas as we count down to eitan's meeting with the leader -- biden's meeting with the leader of qatar. this is bloomberg. ♪
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matt: -- jon: this is "bloomberg markets." president biden set to meet with the leader of qatar on the agenda in the global market. this as oil and gas isis march higher. that's get more perspective from charlie riedl , the executive -- executive director for the center for liquefied natural gas. the obvious talking point right now is what happens in europe depending on where things go, escalated tensions between
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russia and ukraine when it comes to energy supplies? what are you going to be watching closely? charlie: what we will be watching closely is what we see from the administration and what kind of announcement they will make. we have been following and paying attention to the announcement that they made with the eu, talking about trying to secure the supply of natural gas for the broader parts of your as they look for additional supply in the case that russia does cut off gas supply. jon: what other suitable substitutes if europe wanted to stop buying gas from russia or are there any? are there ships on the way loaded with lng? is it possible of getting it out of qatar or canada or is this
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just an possible situation where germany will have to continue buying gas from russia even if moscow orders the invasion of ukraine? charlie: i think it is more the latter, unfortunately. they will probably have to keep buying gas from russia. if you think about the volume of gas, russia supplies 40% of all the gas that goes into europe. when you ask a question about what potentially they do to offset that, of course lng is the answer but not the entirety of the answer. just given the contractual obligations that the major elegy recent countries have with her countries, it is just not possible. we talk about the energy security issue they are facing that is something that isn't going to change this year, this season and the long-term strategy will have to be addressed. jon: in terms of qatar, which i
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believe is pumping away right now, how much can they even offer in terms of being more flexible? are there conversations to find more ways to make more supply available? charlie: the answer is unfortunately probably not. when he look at the united states, united states and qatar are the two us -- the two largest produce of lng. when we think about what could be done, it is not a near-term solution, unfortunately. we are doing as much as we can and these are contracts that are decade-long agreements in place. we are doing as much as we can to send as much as we can to those countries. i think there were's 50 some odd boats that are loaded with elegy ready to be offloaded. then you get into an infrastructure issue in the
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countries in europe where we can only unload so much lng at one time. even if we added another 10 cargoes to the 50 boats that are in and around europe, it would still only increased by 1%. we are not talking about offsetting the 17 or 18 a day of natural gas that russia pumps into europe. it is an issue we are paying close attention to what the solution is not a near-term one, unfortunately. matt: thank you for joining us. charlie riedl . u.s. stocks near a session hyper the s&p 500 up or than 50 points. it is really the tech stock that has picked up and supporting the come back. the nasdaq is up almost 2.5%. jon: even in canadian trading,
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the tech sector doesn't get as much of the u.s. but still down 20% for the year for this will be one of the crucial questions we see as we january -- do investors want to jump in? we are going to get so many technology earnings over the next few days and we will find out. this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> justin trudeau is saying that he tested positive for covid,
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four days are going into isolation because one of his children contracted the virus. he talked about his diagnoses were he also denounced the actions of truckers protesting in ottawa against the vaccine mandates. >> we will not give in to those who fly racist flags. we will not cave to those who engage in evangelism or dishonor the memory of our veterans -- those who engage in vandalism or dishonor the memory of our veterans. >> some carried flags with swastikas. most appeared to have left and now but the war protesters and trucks have remained in organizers -- and organizers say they will not leave until all vaccine mandates are removed. there is full approval


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